tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 25, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i'm shery ahn standing in or betty liu. rising amid growing investor optimism that the world economy can withstand higher interest rates from the fed. the s&p 500 is at its highest level in almost a month. at&tberg news has learned is entering the contest for yahoo!'s internet business, setting off a head-to-head battle with verizon. a look at why at&t is making such a late entry. and microsoft is slashing more than 1800 jobs, accelerating its exit from the smartphone business. what is the company's strategy? are one hour from the close of trading. let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the
latest. how are stocks looking? off ofstocks have come their highs little bit and we see volume slowing down a little bit. nonetheless, still seeing a strong today rally. if you look at the groups that are moving, that has been pretty consistent today. energy shares have in in this top spot consistently throughout the course of this session. materials follow them and utilities are the laggard as we have higher yields which tend to be inversely correlated with utility shares. commodities, oil prices pushing higher after we got the weekly inventory report showing a continuing drop in production and a drop in inventories that was larger than estimated. we see more risk on going on in the markets and a selloff in gold for the third straight day. the u.s. dollar taking a pause
after the recent rally we have seen in the greenback. losing a little steam in today's session. some momentum indicator showing it was getting a little overbought. yields, we have a flattening yield curve continuing today. higher versusving what we have seen recently as the perception has been changing about what the fed is going to do next. shery: stocks on their best rally in seven weeks. some big names leading the gains. , not so much yesterday but more so today. financials have had a big couple of days. the financials group is up about 2.5% because of this perception of what the federal reserve is going to do. although a flattening yield curve is not good for
financials. jpmorgan and wells are higher today. tech has been faring well. economic data will be drunker and this is the group that could be poised to than if it. microsoft saying it will be cutting nearly 2000 jobs as it continues to wind down its smartphone business. thank you so much. let's head to the bloomberg first word news this afternoon. mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. a large power outage in downtown seattle washington that apparently was caused by some sort of equipment daily at a substation. early indications are that it will take a couple of hours for the power to be restored. we will bring you more details as we get them. donald trump planning to hit hillary clinton with yet another
scandal from her past -- the whitewater real estate deal. campaign adviser e-mailed the republican national committee requesting material on mrs. clinton and whitewater. the scandal which dates back to the 1970's was investigated by congress when bill clinton was elected president, but the clintons were never prosecuted. americadirector says has a peculiar indifference to the rising number of murders across the nation. he spoke at the 16th street baptist church in birmingham, alabama, scene of one of the most notorious crimes of the civil rights era when it was in 1963. for black girls attending sunday school were killed. this was part of the birmingham institute conference on civil rights and law enforcement. egypt has contracted to foreign companies to find the flight
data recorders from the plane that crashed in the mediterranean sea. people were killed. a french and italian company will be working with search teams to find the black boxes which could give clues as to what happened to the flight in its final minutes. a solar powered airplane is on its town -- on its way to allentown, pennsylvania. offsolar impulse to took from ohio this morning. the flight was expected to take 17 hours. the plane is expected to make one more stop in new york before crossing the to europe or northern africa. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. our markets ready for the fed to raise rates? by a look at the stock market, the answer to be yes, but
despite the hawkish tone from the april minutes, not everyone is convinced of a summer rate hike. my first guest that he sees fed -- the fed raising rates once more this year. he's a global and g strategist from wells fargo. you don't think the fed will hike in june or july. you put off until december. why is that? guest: i think that is the highest product -- highest volatility. there are still plenty of economic data showing this is a modest growth recovery. we don't have much inflation and that is not going to change anytime soon. look at the purchasing manager data that came out this morning -- it came in pretty close to 50. i think they would like to have rates higher but they want to go very slow. in higher rob ability is
december. shery: is that why you raise your s&p target? guest: for us, the s&p target we had out there was too low. we have a year-end target out currentaluations that levels are not stretched in our opinion and if you get a little confidence that the world is not coming to an end and u.s. growth couldendable, i think you easily push the pe out 1.5 points and you would be in that zone. we are just a touch above the 30 year median. ok, they areare moving in the right direction. want to be able to capture what we think will be the upside between now and the beginning of the year. where is earnings season
headed in the latter half of the year? guest: we have looked for earnings to be down about 7%. if you looked at it on a market cap asus, which the s&p is a market cap weighted index, they are flat or a little better. look out for the whole year, earnings are not going to be exciting this year. we have a number that's only a touch above where we were last year but i think the market and we are looking to 2017 and you will see probably 5% growth next year. and thatrnings growth is why the stock market is where it is, less than 3% away from the record high. that's not because people have expectations growth will they are it is because going to get better and that is what we think. i think it makes a lot of sense and we will see some record highs before the end of the
year. make of thedo you options market? we are talking about elections and a possible brexit. think that might be important for the u.k. or some of these european markets, but important's much more -- for china, is growth going to hang in there, is u.s. growth dependable and is u.s. growth going to be ok? i think those are much bigger issues, so while the markets are going to be volatile around that vote, i would lean toward the u.k. not leaving the eu. and the downside that may occur after that, i'm looking at that as a buying opportunity without a doubt. that is on the list of concerns
but is not in the top five. shery: buying opportunities, what sectors are we talking about? guest: we have interest in the in with the are evan flow of the economy. telecom and utility staples are the bottom. technology, is industrials, consumer discretionary's, all of those are sensitive to the ab and flow of the economy. we are also overweight health care. valuations have gotten hit hard and this is a good opportunity to step in and take an extra position and look at these valuations. thesey, we want to be in cyclical sectors. for joining us. coming up on bloomberg markets,
the bloomberg business flash -- a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. wells fargo will pay a $70 million penalty to end its five-year fight over foreclosure missteps after the 2008 credit crisis. regular readers say the settlement brees the mortgage lender from restrictions last year. they had accused wells fargo of not fixing problems fast enough at the bank is now in compliance is -- in compliance. the new york times is offering buyouts. the newspaper did not rule out the possibility of layoffs. they most recently offered buyouts and tweet 14 when they eliminated 200 positions. struggling to find people to fill hundreds of flight attendant jobs of all wages. hire 1400 cap and crew this year.
ford is recalling 271,000 f1 50 pickup trucks to fix a leak that can reduce raking power. the 2.5 liter v-6 engine, ford says there have been nine alleging crashes with no injuries. one person said they suffered a knee injury while applying the brakes. that is your bloomberg business flash. during john chambers reign as the cisco ceo, he grew the company's annual revenue from $1.2 billion to $47 billion. now he is helping to lead the company to the next wave of growth. in an exclusive interview today, he described what that wave of growth entails. >> it is a time when you either
disrupt or get disrupted. it won't be global multinationals, it will be micro or startup multinationals that is where the job creation will occur. i think it is important as a country we deal with these issues and think about the future. question we are going through a fundamental digital transition. why are we seeing that show up in growth and productivity? it's different, but is it better? thet will be a replay of 1990's. the 1990's and the information age. president clinton did a good job leading that. creating 22 million jobs in real growth in gdp. gdp.h in
the last time americans got a pay raise was 2000, so you can understand the frustration of american voters when they had a decrease in their earnings. worldother country in the , let's use france -- the president is outlying how they grow their gdp by becoming a digital country. he talks about a startup nation, the top startup nation in europe in terms of venture capital investment. he talks about removing regulatory issues which slow down their economy. coming back to the u.s., that is a transition we have to make. all of our job growth will be around startups and new companies. >> does your plan continue no matter how this election cycles? does.yes, it i had the opportunity to talk to almost every government leader
in the world and i would hope whether it's a republican or democrat that they get us focused not on the symptoms of trade or what happens because of trade that on the underlying issues. my parents were both doctors -- they say don't treat the symptoms. we have to get our economy going dramatically faster. you know this number better than i do. only 60 companies go public versus 200 or 300. we are a startup nation and that's where all the job creation is going to occur. unlike france and india which have a plan to rescale their workforce, we don't even talk about it. 90% of the new jobs, regardless of whether they are in agriculture or retail will require technology skills. our ability to make that transition as a country will determine our future and i think we need to make it front and center.
david: i want to talk about the re-schooling of america. we come from an age where you could get a high school degree and work in a factory and make a reasonable living and raise a family. millions ofat the workers using job -- losing jobs as a startup matter. what will be those millions of jobs we create through this digital world? slightlyi may disagree, whether you are in retail, health care or government, it will become a digital organization. 92% of the jobs will require technology skills. while stem is important, you ought to focus purely on technology. you can't just program, you have to say here is how you do your job more effectively. we thought when president clinton focused on the information era, he said you are going to destroy jobs, but the
reverse is true. and 22.5 17% growth million jobs. they ought to think about 25 million jobs during the next eight years. we need to re-skill the american workforce, especially in schools. we are doing it in france and in partnership with the indian government. we need to re-skill the american workforce. executive, was cisco john chambers. u.s. stocks are rallying, but is more volatility ahead? our next guest is betting on it. ♪
bloomberg markets and it's time for options insight. my guest joins me from the hit of the cboe in chicago. this themeking about -- don't fear the fed instead of don't fight the fed. we see this rally even in this a fed increase. it you say you are not quite sure you believe the rally. what do mean by that? guest: yes. the bond market is started, but the market has gotten a little ahead of itself. the s&p is holding out hope that there is no rate hike which, maybe they are able to raise in july but probably not. that is not going to raise rates during the election cycle. i think that's a little where this is coming from. we have non-farms coming up and i think that could throw a
wrench in this rally we have going on right now. what are you looking for in that report? guest: we have already kind of taking -- taken the week off. vix has price itself down to our needs to be. coming in wednesday, you will have people starting to worry about nonfarm payrolls and people coming back from vacation thinking about the federal reserve. we have had short covering because people don't want to be short over the weekend and you will see people thinking that things move a lot quicker, maybe even a little lower as nonfarm payrolls come out, especially if they are hot and personal income is hot. is something the fed has been watching as a missing puzzle piece. the trade you are looking at
reflects the view you are talking about. you are looking at a bearish spread on the s&p 500. i want to own middle of june, right around that fed meeting because i think volatility is going to increase and i want to sell right before the nonfarm payroll. puts andg the june 15 i'm paying about nine a half dollars for that. then the market keeps going. this is a little more conservative because i think we are going to head right back toward that magnet next week. curious -- that would presumably come with an uptick in volatility. that we have seen a crowded
trade. people have been hedging against a downturn of some kind for a while. moreou seeing things get expensive as a result? long-term hedging, if you look at s&p 500 puts, they are sky high. type people are looking for, very difficult, but it makes these many selloffs very easy. we have to leave it there. thank you so much. we will be right back. ♪ okay, ready?
in for very low. let's get to first word news with mark crumpton. mark: two were ordered investigated. one was released with strict conditions. one was really a electronic brake. texas and 10 other states are suing the obama administration about a new directive over transgendered students in public schools. the challenge follows a directive that allows transgendered students to use patterns that match their identity. conservative states have promised defiance since the justice department got it. a large fire has cut off power to buildings in downtown seattle, washington, according to utility seattle city light. several of seattle's largest employers have offices downtown, amazon.com,llow,
also based just north of downtown. the utility says equipment failure caused the outage. it expects powers to be restored -- powered to be restored shortly. we will bring you details as soon as we get them. copies of the first four editions of william shakespeare's plays sold at sotheby's auction house, including a previously unrecorded copy. they were first published in 1623. about half of them had not appeared in print. ,lobal news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. back to you. shery: thank you very much, mark. markets close in 30 minutes. abigail doolittle's live at the nasdaq. what are you looking at? abigail: the nasdaq is higher for a second day in a row.
it is approaching highs. it will match a record from february if it can go 1% higher today. let's keep an eye to see if this rally can gain steam to break that step. one of the best performance for the nasdaq are shares of western digital. the top percentage performer in the nasdaq 100. shares are higher after barclays rated them to an overrated. shares of western digital may be higher today, about and we look at a one-year chart, we see a sharp, severe downtrend get on today's strength, the stock is hitting up against the resistance of the 100-day moving average, suggesting a turnaround may be tough for a stock that is down over 50% over the last 12 months. one to watch. shery: that is the best -- best stock performance. what about the point boost?
abigail: microsoft is higher today on the news the company is cutting up to nearly 2000 jobs in the ailing smartphone unit. investors are cheering the training of this underperforming unit, especially following the company's disappointing report a few weeks ago, weak guidance. from a technical perspective, the chief technical officer at an km holding is neutral on shares of microsoft, but he does concede that after the stock did contest the 200-day average, there is a chance the stock could get back to the middle of a recent trading range, near $54 per share. we'll have to see what happens. overall, he is neutral on microsoft. shery: two are so much for that. let's now expand on that -- thank you so much for that. let's expand on that topic. john butler is a senior analyst at bloomberg intelligence and joins me now. and make thison
$9.5 million -- billion dollar deal with on the handset business. now they are shifting strategy. what happened here? john: so, first of all, i think the person to blame for the in 2014 -- shery: steve ballmer. john: was steve ballmer. if you look at microsoft to that point, they really missed mobile. they just missed it. it was amazing. they bought gnocchi of national nolia handset business, i hate to call it aspiration, but they were going to build off the platform to build share in the mobile operating system. keep in mind, microsoft is a software company. the operating systems on these smartphones are soft-where -- software-based. really that is what they were after. they want to gain share in their
operating system, and they never were able to achieve it. okia was a brand that was beginning to fade. in the smartphone market, it really is a brutal market when you think about what happened to motorola. nokia, now blackberry, they have all fallen from grace. microsoft had a hard time competing with apple and samsung. shery: they never got that market share. john: they could never get it. here we are today with a new ceo, satya nadella -- very energetic, very visionary. open to partnering, that he is restructuring the company along the way, and they are not a hardware company. he knows that, and acting on that, i think he is really trying to trim their exposure -- if not altogether -- they are really getting ready -- rid of the bulk of the handset business. shery: where are the cuts coming
from, and where is the business now heading? they intend to sell the feature phone business -- feature phones are those old phones that had some functions to them like e-mail, but they do not have an operating system. believe it or not, there are still a lot of feature phones out there, not in the u.s., but in other markets, and nokia really did well there, but again, it is not microsoft's end game. they are sign that business. in my mind the big moves the operational costs savings that is going to come from moving on all of those had and winding down -- heads and winding down operations. shery: we were talking about the brutal smartphone market, and this time in india, the finance minister says they have to source components locally, 30%. how big of a below is this for apple? john: it is not huge.
it is funny -- shery: really, it could be the next china. john: it is problematic -- i am not sure if india will be the next china. i am glad you said that. it is important to understand the differences. in china did well because the consumer in china is less value-oriented than they are in india. shery: where you have cheaper phones. john: you can see it in the difference in the average price paid her smartphone. in india, it is 100 -- her smartphone. in india, it is $120. the average in china is $280. appleshare in india is currently around 1%. it is nowhere to go but up. what they are really trying to do to gain traction there is to get distribution set up, and in that sense the news is a blow because they really want to do it through opening apple stores. india are alln these really mom-and-pop
retailers. you can see them on the streets in new york. they do not have best buy, walmart, amazon, as big distribution channels for the iphone. so, in that sense the news is bad. they will get through it. it is really a process, and i think over time they will do just fine in india, but i'm not sure it will be a rerun of china. shery: i'm surprised that you are saying it is not the next china. john: i think in a growth sense, people -- you can make that comparison. ,ver the next five years smartphones in india will grow on average 20%, and that is similar to what we saw in china the last five. you for yourthank time. john butler joining us from bloomberg intelligence. we are also watching yahoo!. shares are falling today. take a look at this. yahoo! having its worst day since early january, falling 5%. telecom giant at&t is said to be interested in buying the company's business. -- mnarg's mark:
reporter alex sherman broke this story. you are telling me more about the deal. in the at&t comeback game, because we had heard earlier that it was dropping its good. yeah, we don't know. we do not know if we were fed information, or if at&t has changed its mind about yahoo!. it is possible that at&t wanted to wait on the sideline as they pre a cold investor in y holdings -- a digital yellow pages. yp was interested in merging with yahoo!. are no learned they longer interested, or perhaps yahoo! is no longer interested in yp. .o, -- in yp so, perhaps because of that, at&t has said it makes sense to
look at the distance, do our due diligence, make a first-round bid. there is no harm in losing. shery: could that have been a ploy? alex: i cannot figure was a ploy, but it will allow at&t to go forward with us once we realize you who is not interested. to go forward with this once we realize yahoo! is not interested. he will then move forward on our own. this deal, we are hearing, could be in the $4 billion, $5 billion range. it is not a huge deal for at&t. look, at&t and verizon are both at the point where there is only so much they can do, at least m&a.-wise from an standpoint. they cannot buy another wireless network. regulars were allow them to. they cannot buy another cable company. regulators won't allow them to. you could make a small bet, and maybe develop something down the road that is appealing to your
wireless customers. shery: where is yahoo! in the process -- when will we see a winner? alex: we are hearing it is a few weeks away, which is no surprise. because the public has been so public, it seemed really long, &a processlity, any m of a beleaguered company do take this amount of time. maybe early june, something like that. part of the problem is we have heard that verizon, the most likely buyer, has not necessarily made the biggest did , and that is --bid and that has opened the door to some candidates yahoo! advisers had talked to. one is dan gilbert, the owner of the cleveland cavaliers. week thatame out last he has made a bid backed by warren buffett. how much do they know about yahoo!? i don't know. the yahoo! advisers walk them through the process.
i will say in your opening graphic, yahoo! is down the most since january. that has to do with alibaba, the investigation. at&t intended to be a bitter when we thought they were not, is only good news for yahoo! shareholders as of today. shery: alex, thank you so much for that. alex sherman, here at bloomberg news, m&a reporter, who actually broke this story. coming up, silicon valley and washington at war over security and privacy. is there a middle ground? we will talk extensively to the information security officer -- exclusively to the fbi's chief information security officer later in the program. ♪
shery: this is bloomberg markets, i am shery ahn, standing in for betty liu. tensions between silicon valley and washington seem to be at an all-time high. the biggest flashpoint, the encryption standoff between the fbi and apple over the san bernardino phone. that battle is over, but the cyber wars have just begun. arlette hart,g in chief information security office and the fbi. she joins us from the bloomberg breakaway summit here in new york. is the biggest challenge the fbi faces these days on cyber security? so, i am focused on the different of the fbi, so from the defense of the fbi perspective, and also, i think from the defense of the entire country at that level, what we are really facing is a lot of varied threats to the security of our information that come
from a variety of sources from activists and random people that are interested in doing damage to our infrastructure, and also going to nationstates and people that want to do damage to us. and looking at a cross-the-threat landscapes is a challenging effort and it requires whole of government and all of -- industry. one of the pieces i want to emphasize is this is a team sport, and we are all in this together, and it requires all of us to look diligently at cyber security, across the entire landscape, and say what is it we can work together to improve here? shery: does this complicate things for you because allshery: all of this huge expansion in the internet of things, the cloud, all the public wi-fi out there? ms. hart: right. shery: how safe are we? ms. hart: that is an interesting question because the answer to how safe we are depends on how
vigilant we are, and a lot of the answers go to your individual perspective on what your safety and information risk is. a lot of information is being collected and aggregated in different places by different organizations. are they protecting it adequately is one of the questions that when you are buying a product that you need to ask. when we are looking at things that affect the fbi, we certainly look at do we have the right security in place? is the product itself worthwhile? atlook at our vendors, look how we are protecting our infrastructure, making sure we are adequately protecting the data. we are not only protecting data, but we are making sure we have the mission that can be accomplished. --is not enough to say all oh, yeah, we're going to lock things up. drive theed to do is mission from a protection status so we have the right protections in place. balancingnteresting act, and everyone can see that in their day to day lives. you have to be able to use
information the way it needs to be used, but you also want to make sure you have the right protections in place so the people that are trying to steal your information -- so identity thieves cannot take your information. so, who you are entrusting your data to is actually worthy of that trust. shery: so, you are in charge of securing the security of the fbi's network computers. so, how do you deal with encrypted devices such as the iphone, or encrypted encryption apps for your own employees? we make sure that as we have -- so, we do our own devices. we don't --from the fbi's perspective, you know how the fbi is addressing this, and that is an area where you can look up the director's comments related to that. from our own perspective, we have to be able to make sure we meet the needs of the discovery kinds of pieces, and make sure we have the right protections in place to safeguard the
information to the fbi that is fbi's information. shery: thank you very much for your time this morning. hart, chief information security officer for the fbi. coming up on bloomberg markets, as the close of trading is just minutes away, here are the major averages -- the s&p 500 gaining .7%. we are seeing the biggest two -day rally in seven weeks. the dow jones industrial average also up .9%, while the nasdaq is up .7%. we will have more when bloomberg markets is back. ♪
the markets close in about 10 minutes. julie hyman has your market check. julie, what are we looking at? julie: we are still looking at this rally, and i've been looking at the metrics over the last two days we have seen stocks higher. here is today, stocks holding steady repetition, with the dow leading, a gain of 150 points. if you look at the two days, you will see two it as more than 2% -- the largest two-day gain for the you -- the largest two-day gain for the s&p 500 going back to march 2. as we going to the bloomberg, what i have done is look at the s&p 500 and look at the return by thee past two days individual stocks. here's what you have, chesapeake energy, transocean, southwestern -- you have a lot of the energy names that come at least a percentage terms, have done the best of the past couple of days. anadarko, murphy, dimon off-shore, also on that list. we have not seen as much of the
decline. good breath over the past couple of days. i looked at the groups in the s&p 500 -- the industry gives we look at typically throughout the course of the day, and all of the groups are up over the past two days, even utilities, which has been underperforming, at least for today. technology and financials, the best two performing groups, not a surprise -- that is what we have been talking about frequently. if the perception is the economy is strengthening, allowing the federal reserve to move higher interest rates, that would be good news for companies that are sensitive to the economy -- technology, financials, and health care, energy, and materials rounding out the top groups and their performance over the past couple of days. we will see what happens going into the holiday weekend. shery: julie, thank you so much for that. there is something interesting going on at fixed income trading desks. instead of institutions holding onto risky bets, they are
turning to etf's. lisa abramowicz joins me now. what leads to the popularity of these, and why are some is additional investors turning to these? lisa: first of all, there's a lot interesting going on in fixed income desks. let's be clear. there has been a big shift in risk it. since the credit crisis in 2008 where you have seen banks reduce balance sheets, readers riskier "bloomberg businessweek holding, reverse riskier bet holding. instead of going to the bank, an increasing number of both investors,al headphones, and others, have turned to etf's because the shares traded daily like stocks, even though they own, riskier, potentially, and less liquid cuties underneath. so, that has, sort of, then
trend underneath. so, how exactly does this work? a client gives money to a dealer of a high-yielding bond -- to buy a high-yielding bond? lisa: hold on a second. what we have seen recently has been something of a mystery -- we have seen flows in and out of this big etf that have been so volatile. some days they have been huge inflows, and that we have seen a bunch of record withdrawals. it raises the question, what is going on here? . ec but i do not like high-yield anymore -- are these people that do not like high-yield anymore? you not seen the same shift in the underlying bond market. this is adding up to people thinking the dealers are using these etf's as if they are their own inventories. in other words, they are using them. they are saying look, we'll take a client's money, use it to buy shares of the etf, you can redeem the shares in time for
the underlying security, so you basically give them the shares and get a whole bunch of bonds, and then they sell those bonds to the clients. they a receptacle of bonds can go into and take out of, which i find pretty fascinating. shery: fascinating, yes, now that you explain it to us. lisa, think you so much for that. lisa abramowicz talking about the popularity of high-young on .tf -- high-yield bond etf's "what'd you miss?" is next. the major averages. the s&p 500 leading the gains, .7%. the dow is also up .9%. the biggest gain since march "what'd you miss?. " -- since march. "what'd you miss?" is next. ♪
[closing bell] alix: s&p at its highest level in a month. is what'dhe question you miss? an exclusive sitdown with bill gross. erik schatzker joins them add a panel in los angeles later this month. alix: and why china once the fed to raise rates in july, not june. 10%.o stock has fallen we have the charts that you cannot miss. with our market minute. the s&p 500 at a one-month high. the risk on like rally heard around the world. it started in