tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 26, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here is what we are watching this hour. our central banks like the wizard of oz and is the curtain about to be pulled back on them? bill gross says that they may be upon them. we will talk to the man leading the charge of higher standards in fx trading after banks were hit with $9 billion in fines last year alone. is set to get a majors these -- major speech on energy policy. markets close in about two hours. let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has a look at the latest. mixed come ae this tight range for the session. we have volume that is down
today. though the s&p and nasdaq has turned slightly positive, it is slightly changed here. about thelked one-year anniversary of the record of the s&p and the dow. it doesn't look like it's going to make another record. 1.9% below the record close that it reached on may 27 of 25th seen. getting back to today's session and focusing on the dow, with this mixed session, we see a push and pull between various stocks. gains today are coming from home depot, bowling and apple. but they are not seeing a lot of percentage movement. goldman sachs has been falling along with the other financial today. aret now, the declines
outweighing the gains. look ato if you earnings movers, they have been pretty substantial. that is where you get it today. dollar tree coming out with earnings that eat estimates. the company says traffic is up. that company is on the rise after the beating estimates. itsaking progress following split with hp enterprise. but there are some movers to the downside that have recorded earnings. signet, the jewelry retailer down after missing estimates and cutting its forecast for comparable sales for the full year. separated from computer sciences, which will be merging with hp enterprise services, this is the government technology services part of the business, down 5% after missing
estimates and coming out with a forecast that was disappointing. at thethat's julie hyman markets desk. after becoming the presumptive nominee for the republican party, donald trump is set to address reporters any moment now. check of the bloomberg first word news with mark crumpton from our newsroom. just ms. -- just mentioned, mr. trump has hit the magic number it has the number of delegates needed to clinch the republican nomination. 1200p count has him with 38, 1 more than is needed. he was put over the top by a small number of unbound delegates who told the ap they would support him. hillary clinton beats esther trump by 70 percentage points in the rust belt according to the latest online poll from bloomberg allah ticks. likely voters with annual family
incomes of $30,000 to $70,000 in michigan, ohio backed mrs. clinton over mr. trump. a review of democratic primary results in kentucky has found senator clinton still at -- has found secretary clinton ahead of senator sanders. they both picked up 27 delegates after the may 17 kentucky primary but one delegate has yet to be awarded from the sixth congressional district. it goes to mrs. clinton. russia has included maria sharapova on its team for the olympics despite her provisional suspension for failing a drug test. she has been suspended since march after testing positive for a banned substance at the australian open in january. the russian tennis thracian hopes she could be cleared in time to play in rio. global news 24 hours a day
howard by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. bill gross believes the day of reckoning is in the near future. a central bank policies run out of steam, he joined erik schatzker for a wide-ranging interview in beverly hills. he asked how big a return bill is expecting on his janus fund. our expectation is a 3% to 5% return. it doesn't sound great, but it is much better than the stock market so far. i think that is a realistic objective, but it has to be done recognizing credit spreads and curve and the yield stock pes are artificially elevated. , everyone is uncertain,
but there is no doubt a zero or negative interest rate policy in many parts of the world or close to zero policy in the united states produces artificial asset prices. an investor has to be careful, time, armageddon is always there. carrying the sign the world is going to end tomorrow, it usually doesn't. nor does it end in a year. an investor that invest money with janice or any other firm or simply by themselves has to know there, between here and there is a time where hopefully you can make a little money as opposed to lose money, so we are investing conservatively, but with the recognition that somewhere out there, there is a
point in time where the risk can be even more elevated than it is now. when you say asset prices are unrealistic, does that mean overvalued? bill: yes. it is easy in the bond market, especially if you go to germany or japan. but if you went to germany and five-year -25 basis points, is it unrealistic, who would deny it? after five years, you are giving pointrman government one 25% of your money. you could put it in a mattress and do better. slamdunk, non-debatable proposition when you look at certain bond markets. in terms ofomes
taking the foundation of asset prices and short-term money rates and projecting that to a risk spread. that is where the debate comes in and it is not as easy for me to convince you and a short time are unreasonable and high-yield spreads are too narrow. but because rates have been so a realisticong, observer would have to say there has been enough time for asset prices to adjust to a 0% interest rate and if those are assetsstic, then riskier must at least be at risk of being a riskier assets. the inevitable question is
what brings about the correction? bill: we know central banks and corporations, especially in the united rates are elevating asset $600,000th buybacks of on an annual basis. there's no doubt it is a source of demand. through itsreserve low interest-rate are supporting equity prices and the ecb is actually buying corporate bonds and the bank of japan is actually buying corporate equities. consideration, central banks are a big part of this deal. has ak the private market continuing faith, though it is weakening in the believe central
banks can continue to keep the balloon full. what pops it? pops when the real economy, which hasn't really hopedded as had been and ifes to languish to 2% andcannot get the wizard of oz, which in this case is central banks standing in front of the curtains is exposed for what he is and what beneficialhich is governors of the financial system but governors that are
increasingly impotent. if the private market not only senses that but begins to confirm it or believe it, that all they have been done has been done and they can't do much more, then at some point at the margin, investors will leave. they put their money in the bank or take it out and put it under their mattress. that's a literal metaphor, but that is what happens. erik: what should an investor do? let's say you were smart enough the lowsenough to have on february 11 and ridden the rebound and stocks and ridden the rebound and high-yield and credit which has been nothing short of extra gary. would you sell now? bill: if i invested then and rode the train, i would.
thank you for being here. i think it is important to note the timing surrounding this. i wonder if there is a crisis of trust in the forex industry i would not call it a crisis of trust, i would call it a lack of trust from the public markets in every way. if you go back to the global financial crisis, the public's trust was shaken during that time. while the foreign exchange market has had several experiences, this has been meant to address conduct overall. intervals were drafted, give a sense of what they were like. for folks in favor of having standards like these? without question. we read through every single one of them. the comments were mostly in support of the code, in support
of specific behaviors in the code. what did you hear from central banks? the most important thing to highlight was it was truly a public-private harder ship. we worked in support of a group of central bankers as a partnership between the public side and private side. it was a group effort throughout the process. of thosel be some watching here who will say this is pretty basic. they should beat ingrained? i agree. we spent very little time trying to decide what is right and wrong in the process. what's going to change in regard to coming acacia? how important will market color continue to be? i think what we have done is we have allowed the market to open up again.
the benchmark scandal, the market tended to shut down. have set out a group of principles that have enabled the market to flow more freely and create more liquidity in the market. one of the challenges of imposing regulation on the forex market is how big it is. .t is a global market it is a fragmented market. how difficult is it to regulate? it is important to stress that this is not meant to supplant regulation. it was meant to help regulators in many ways. isctly as you have said, it the most diverse market in the world and principles when themselves to dealing with a number of market artistic bentz. great to have these, but their wilson -- there will be some who say there's not enough ethier.
a the end of the day, it is to market participants to self enforce. , which weking on that embark on today. i fully anticipate market dudley will adopt these quickly. i think the stakes are very high for participants, but as well for clients. there is something i saw here about dispute resolution. is that coming? resolution is a bilateral conversation in one that i suspect will flow freely as it has over a number of years. let's talk about where this industry is. do you expect it to be smaller going forward? what will it look like in five or 10 years? we will know more when it is released later this fall.
see good, healthy volume in the market and i expect these principles will enable volume and liquidity to grow in the market lace. what is the timeline? what is the time i forgetting these more widely accepted in the industry? the first step is today and the release of their phase one part of the code. that will continue throughout this year and we will finish it in the spring of extra. when the final code is released, it will effectively supersede all other codes and best practices. continue to refine the work we've done today and focus on the very important area of electronic reporting. the ceo of cls group holdings. donald trump is speaking at a news conference. let's go to mark crumpton for more. this press availability with mr. trump coming on a day the
associated press reported he has reached the number of delegates needed to clinch the republican presidential nomination. let's go live to bismarck. mr. trump: i'm raising money for the party and we intend to raise a lot of money for the party. we are raising it for senators, congressmen, raising it for a lot of people who are running. we want to have majorities, it is very important. we have a tremendous staff of people. last night in los angeles, we raise a lot of money for the party. this is money going into the rnc and we are going to have i think a tremendous -- we are getting thanked all over by republican senators and congressmen and hopefully we will raise a lot of money but this is money being raised for the party. i think we will have tremendous success and i'm continuing to fund big portions of my campaign. >> the report was quoted as
saying is you release your taxes, you would not advise it. you are to sound as if not going to release your taxes. mr. trump: i have to say the irs has continued to be very professional and i have been hot it did -- i have been audited for 15 years. i don't know many people who have been audited for 15 years. i'm audited all the time and i don't know what it's about what the irs has been every professional. as soon as that is finished, whenever that may be, hopefully it will be before the election, i'm fine with that. >> you do pay some federal taxes? mr. trump: i do. >> mr. trump, in the wake of yesterday's inspector general's report about hillary clinton's e-mails, you say you have doubts about whether she can stay in the race against you. are you prepared to call on her
to get out of the race so americans can have more confidence in the integrity of their front runners? mr. trump: i want to run against her. she has had judgment. probably illegal, we will have to find out what the fbi says about it. isust read the report, it devastating, the report. and there's no reason for it. it is skirting on the edge all the time and you look back on her history and this is her history -- it is a very harsh report, done really by democrats appointed by obama and done by democrats. to see what she did and more than anything else, it is bad judgment. that's going to be up to her. >> you talk a lot about how you are working to unite the republican party but in new mexico, you went after the governor there. this number change your
approach? esther trump: i think it will. i have not had the support of the governor of new mexico. she was on somebody else's side and that's fine. i imagine she will come over to my side. if you look at what has happened, tremendous support from all over the country. we have governors all over the place and vast majorities -- i think the approval is up to over 90%. it is tremendous. a little while ago, we were 62%. i won the elections and landslides. that is important to say. we go to new york and we went 62% of the vote with three people running. i think pennsylvania is a state where we will do very well. hillary clinton wants to put the coal miners out of his this. i think i'm going to win pennsylvania easily. maryland, connecticut, delaware,
rhode island and then we had a tremendous success when we went to indiana. .obby knight helped i think we are going to win indiana very big. the thing i think i am most proud of, not the fact i'm watching hillary in sit of hillary watching me, we were supposed to be going into july and a lot of people said it wouldn't he settled in the convention and there would be a august andion in here i am watching hillary fight and she can't close the deal and it should be such an easy deal to close and she can't close the deal. i'm watching her and we will see what happens. live from bismarck, north dakota, the republican presidential nominee for 2016, donald trump, speaking to reporters. he talked about hillary clinton and set of her contest against
bernie sanders that she cannot close the deal. he said it should be an easy deal to close. back to you. i want to bring in josh green. he has written a cover story about wright's previous, someone who is probably watching that press conference closely. talk about the relationship he has with donald trump. josh: he's chairman of the republican party and he is the guy who spearheaded the effort to modernize and broaden the appeal of the republican party after the loss of mitt romney, bring in more black, hispanic, gay voters and women. trump has swept through like a wrecking ball and upset the wrecking -- upset the apple cart. he has a distinctive view of where the party got to go. you hear that in his stump speeches, and you also see the attack dog trump very on message
tearing apart hillary clinton, helping to drive up her negative ratings which are nearly as high as his are now. this could be a competitive race but it is not the kind of competitive race most republicans wanted. a number of questions about his relationship to women. how worried is reince previous about that? under theink it walls umbrella of many of the things establishment republicans are worried about. women will be among the majority and if you are offending them right, it will be hard to put together a winning coalition. we will have more on bloomberg television in just a moment.
first word news with mark crumpton. mark: he is the republican presidential nominee for 2016, 69-year-old donald trump. he is speaking out to supporters in bismarck, north dakota, surrounded by some of the uncommitted delegates who are now saying they will support his nomination. the associated press reported earlier today that mr. trump had clear the delegate count hurdle. he said earlier that republican senators and congressmen have been thanking him. he was asked about hillary clinton and e-mail scandal. he said, i want to run against her, this is all probably illegal. he said she is skirting on the edge all the time. he said that is mrs. clinton's history. stay with us on bloomberg television. we will have more on his remarks. michigan governor rick snyder is looking to stop administrative
investigations into have two state agencies handle the drinking water crisis. it move follows morning that is hampering state and federal inquiries. the investigations could have what he call a chilling effect on the criminal process and may cause of instruction of justice. french police have detained a man thought to have links to extremism. the man was believed to have a knife and a teargas bomb. the standup took about one block from the best deal, where a labor march was about to start. france has been on age since the -- edge since the 2013 terror attacks. two super hornet jet fighters collided off the north carolina coast this morning. for survivors were taken to hospitals. a coast guard spokesperson tells the ap, crews were notified around 10:30 a.m. 25 miles east
of the outer banks. crew members were plucked off of a commercial fishing ship that pulled them out of the atlantic ocean. they were then flown by coast guard helicopter to a hospital in norfolk, virginia. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. back to you. david: commodity markets are closing in new york. natural gas inventories for last week came in above estimates. the commodity falling on concerns of supply will reach a record be or the winter. u.s. stockpile shrink more than expected last week, pushing the vti and brent above $50 a barrel at one point, prices we have not seen since october. i want to bring in rich redash and also jason bloom. jason, let me start with you. $50, one that is pleasing to many.
what accounts for it, will it stay for a while? jason: our outlook is that we would reach 50 but not until the end of the fourth quarter. pretty straightforward story. it is all about supply. it has been four years ever since saudi arabia boosted production. we had supply disruptions over the last few weeks, wildfires in canada, militant activity in nigeria, kuwaiti oil workers strike. hiding the risk tales more tour the upside as the market comes into balance. we are seeing fundamental trend demand stay good. supply decreasing, steady pace tothe u.s., it does point higher prices going forward. at these levels, as canadian crude comes back online, whether or not saudi arabia chooses to boost production in response to thinkhigher prices, i
that creates some medium-term uncertainty, but the trend is in place. david: saudi arabia still playing an outsized role here. jason: we are here because they want prices to be here. this story, we have with natural gas. rich: a bit above the average consensus. surprise us. we expected some speed bumps in the spring, particularly looking at south-central storage. we have levels that are more akin to labor day than memorial day, but with the cooling season, we will see more decided sides of a rebalance which is already on the backend of the curve, matching our forecast. david: we were talking about the coming of lending you and what the weather pattern may mean. how will that affect natural gas ? we do not have an in-house
meteorologists, but there are the prospects for a hot summer. that would push the rebalancing process. ask you about advice you are giving to folks that want to invest in oil. seeing prices so low, what do you say to folks that want to get into the business? we really like the diversified approach. we believe, if you look back over the last 50 years, a consistent boom, bust cycle in commodities. it reminds me of the adage, all news is old news, just happening to new people. it is hard to remember in the mist of the boston that the boom follows. there is an interesting database from china showing industrial activity appears to be picking up. that will be good for metals, energy demand has never been an issue on the energy side. i think it makes sense not to put all your eggs in one basket. there is broad support for the
trending commodities. the outlook for the dollar is deteriorating by the month. , headwindlwind perspective, that is pushing commodity index dictations the upside in the next couple of years. we do like the diversified approach. david: how similar is the gas story to the oil story right now? mike: it is quite different. we have been in an isolated market. we are ending that isolation. i do see some convergence between oil and gas, as you look further out into the future. david: you talk about a sea change, surging shale production will permanently up and production. how big will that be? in mind were the exports will take place. overwhelmingly concentrated in the gulf coast, texas and louisiana. now you have to get that supply down. there is no assurance that
appalachia, the engine of growth getgas, will continue to that supply down to where it is needed. david: we are waiting for a speech from donald trump on energy, some say it will be a big part of his policy. how big of a deal or politics playing here, as you forecast? are you looking ahead to the election? when you look at the democrats versus the republicans, there seems to be a bit of a gap -- in the case of gas, with respect to economic activity, we need production. david: have you heard that from either candidate? rich: the democrats seem to be distancing themselves from gas, especially with the issues around fracking. jason, political
uncertainty, what are you listening for from donald trump today? jason: knowing that he was going to make a speech, i looked at some of his recent comments, whether it is barring imports from saudi arabia because of there, it seems to be pointing to the idea that risks in energy commodity tilts to the upside. maybe not the best news for equity markets. we are in a fed rate hike cycle. not to the extent those are politically driven, but it is all part of the dialogue right now. commodities tend to do well in fed rate hike cycles. we will see where he goes with that. a lot of bluster their. we will see what policy really plays out. david: thank you coach very much. -- both very much. trumpahead, donald officially passing the magic number needed to clinch the
david: this is "bloomberg markets." -- bloombergbig business flash. united airlines is it will stop flying to nigerian next month. the movable and it's only route to africa. they say it is doing so because of weakness in the energy sector and difficulty collecting money from tickets sold in that country. head ofgroup's
financial services group has resigned. he is the half brother of former french president nicolas sarkozy. he will continue as a senior advisor to the firm. microsoft and facebook are teaming up to build an underwater internet cable across the atlantic ocean. it will carry data between north america and southern europe. the project will be operated by an affiliate of spanish telecom company telefonica. presidential candidate donald trump is still speaking in north dakota. later, he is said to give a policy speech on energy, as the ap reports he officially secured the number of delegates he needed to clinch the laquon nomination. here he is on a report of hillary clinton using private e-mail as secretary of state. >> it is devastating,
devastating. there is no reason for it. skirting on the edge all the time. you look back at her history, and this is her history. it is a very harsh report, done really by democrats, appointed soobama, done by democrats, it is shocking to see, shocking to see what she did, and really more than anything else, it is bad judgment. craig gordon is with us now. donald trump has been campaigning the last few weeks as the presumptive nominee. he hits the magic number today. what does that change for him on the campaign trail? greg: i think it is just a psychological boost. we knew that he would get the number of delegates and now that we know from the associated press calculations he is at 1238 and counting, we expect to him to get more in california in the next couple of weeks. it is putting a pen in it once and for all, if anyone thought there was a chance to knock them
out delegate wise. that is over and now it is on to the convention in july. david: later today, he will be speaking on energy. he gave a major policy speech a few weeks back on foreign affairs and the economy. are we seeing the candidate focus more on issues of substance now that he has assumed the mantle? craig: one of the big criticisms of trump is, while he is certainly an appealing person in terms of reaching out to people who feel like they have been left behind by the economy, he has not filled in the blanks of his own economy on how he would get the economy going again. you are seeing trump take a concerted effort to go down the list of the different policy positions where he has been criticized for being a blank slate and trying to fill them in. i will say, the foreign-policy widelyhe gave was tanned, no deep ideas, kind of a first brush of what he was thinking. we will see what he does on the energy speech. david: there is a new poll out
from bloomberg looking at middle income rust belt voters. with the hypothetical unsubtle track running against hillary clinton, she has a sizable lead their. what should we take away from that? we all expect this to be a close fight in november, but hillary has a lot of structural advantages. some of the states that we looked at, michigan, wisconsin, places that you think of the industrial heartland, these are democratic states. they often tend to support the democratic candidate. that is the case for hillary clinton. elected president in this country is really about getting enough of these voters from the different states. and that favors a democrat. heartlande industrial states are much more democratic.
this poll out today shows that will be a much tougher task. japan for the g-7 summit. let's hear a little bit of what he had to say. president obama: they are paying close attention to the presidential election. -- it is fair to say they are surprised by the republican nominee. they are not sure how seriously to take some of his pronouncements. but they are rattled by them. >> president obama not even using the word presumptive. what role is president obama going to play and how eager is he to begin weighing in on the campaign? are seeing here is very eager to you may remember a year or so ago he gave a commence minute address. the president gives several over the course of the -- third graduate season. him a presss asking
conference -- it was what he chose to talk about. i think he is itching to get out of the campaign trail and draw a contrast to swing his policies and what donald trump would do and what hillary clinton would do, which a lot of people had said would be a third term of obama, some one who would carry out his politics. -- policies. >> we had josh green here a moment ago. about the cover story difficulty the republican establishment is having coming to terms with who the republican nominee will be. what is the status of that brokerage? you have paul ryan and a lot of reports around here about whether or not he will endorse him soon, or at all. what is the latest on that embrace? now know that donald trump and paul ryan did have the call last night. we were able to break the story last night. both gentlemen have been fairly
about thei -- coy details. vague terms but not a lot of specifics. our reporting shows right now paul ryan understands that donald trump is not helping the republican party win in november. the white house is up for grabs. paul ryan understands and is that he knowsants this is a problem for the party and he wishes he could fix it. the way to fix it is to endorse donald trump. he is not quite there yet but they are taking steps, meetings, policy discussions, to try to get ryan to a yes on an endorsement of trump. nothing is confirmed yet. stay tuned. you could see something in the next coming days. >> craig is joining us from washington dc tonight, john will have more on donald trump. gains.s given up early
they fall for a seventh straight day. julie hyman has more from our report today. julie: one of the worst performing groups today, this etf among the sectors fighters is the worst performance today down .9%. gold prices are pulling back once again, even though we have a picture for stocks and markets overall. prices, we are not seeing a gain there. it means at least some of the miners are under pressure. down by more than 2%. ubs is out for a forecast for gold. the federal reserve will raise rates twice and the dollar will rise as a result and that will put pressure on gold prices. there is an inverse relationship between gold and the dollar. andhave the dollar index
gold prices. you can see they have been trading inversely. you start to see the dollar pickup more steam. we have seen gold come off its high. that trend could indeed continue. look at broad sentiment among folks that forecast gold prices. measure bullish and bearish sentiment, you can see things getting a little more bearish and a little less bullish in recent days on the forecast front. something else i want to look at is open index in gold itself. at one point, earlier this year, it rose to the highest since 2011. optimism it will continue. at this white, it seems to be more mixed in sentiment.
in the final is days of training hundreds of performers getting ready for the multibillion-dollar shanghai's month. us behind the scenes to see how things are coming along. >> one of about 1000 performers being put in their paces before disney throws open the doors on the most ambitious venture to date. shanghai disneyland. as i feel proud and honored when
i tell people who work for disney. it is plain to the crowd that thoughts him. the challenges about the interaction with the audience and how to make evil happy. that is the most difficult inc.. pirates are something of a thing and all of that can be demanding. >> we need to have strength to keep us going. >> a hapless love interest in a pirates of the caribbean spinoff , she has no plans to leave anytime soon. >> from the first day that i joined disney, i have an very ambitious. i want to work for at least 10 years or 20 years or longer. >> they're getting ready for another curtain raiser. onstage here in shanghai, the
highest grossing musical of modern times and they are counting down the first ever , after appearing in the competition. she is the female lead. >> an important role in the huge production. >> this is my first time taking part in such a big reduction and become a lead actress in such an important role. i feel proud but at the same time, it is a big challenge. i get to perform it in chinese. >> some have doubts about whether disney will be able to get these performers up to scratch.
from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. here is what we're watching. u.s. stocks fluctuate. brent crude titers $50 per barrel for the first time in six. shares of netflix surge on a report apple bought -- time warner. investors have a taste for shares of u.s. food. kickstart other kind needs into going public. one hour from the close of trading. let's head to her julie hyman has the latest. scope of those gains and losses are very small.