tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg May 27, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
[bell] closing higherks ahead of the memorial day weekend, the best week for the s&p 500 since march. the question is, what did you miss? we take you to all the moves. and the market moves as janet yellen said another hike is likely appropriate in the coming months, but when? >> and the rise of protectionism in the u.s. and europe, our guess is it could be a less competitive world. ♪ alix: we begin with our market minute, the s&p 500 and nasdaq closing of the best levels of the session, this is the fourth straight week of gains for the major indexes. and within the groups -- financials and telecom leading
the advance on a better than expected, or improved reading, a little bit lighter than what the economists had been looking for. >> it was not a big miss today. alix: we have to talk about volume. ughing] >> it was ridiculous. it was down 20%. the s&p 500 down 15% pay it is part of a long -- 50%. it was a killer rally this week. >> absolutely. it was led by some things in particular, a really big move into sectors, which is a big deal. it has not happened yet this year, where in a week, the two biggest sectors were the biggest winners, so we are talking about technology and financials, those were driving about 40% of the s&p 500 and they were both up on the week. it was a big help to stocks.
and we had a good move where things are getting relaxed as investors assess anxiety. it is down, down, down. be relateds got to to some of the economic data that came out on the vix. it is low. alix: we did see a lot of action in the bond market, janet yellen attic you and eight at harvard harvard.at two is not backtracking. she was not backtracking. with aa two year yield monster rally. so the bonds were really selling off on that. also for this week, the big story was really in the yields, particularly looking at the five, 30 year, yields. that spread at its lowest since december.
we saw all that really pointing to a rate hike sooner, affecting the short-term treasury yields. yellen'sllowing janet comments, we saw the reaction in the dollar. this was popping in the headlines. you can see how -- closed at its high for the week and this means higher returns. and now this marks's the dollar's fourth week of gains here that you can really see these move in the dollar index. and the fed is watching the dollar, because a seller -- drug or is indicative of the conditions. it gained about 25% in the second half of thousand eight, 2014,llman large that -- mrs. since then it has been around 92 or a hundred to even though we had this recovery, we were very much stuck in that range. alix: you also get a gold selloff.
gold was below the 100 day moving average and it could not get any kind of traction as the feds were talking about a rate hike. and soybeans looking at their best weekly rally since 2014. it was the best weekly rally since 2017, at one point. who knew, that they would have a lot of action. and another big story, at one point over $50 a barrel for oil. the best week since october. >> now we will look into the bloomberg. you can see the following charts at the bottom of the screen. alix: i want to highlight what happened with the fed, the rate hike occasions after the announcement. so you can see the probability julyjune high is at 34%, is at 59%, and september, 67%. this is where we were one day ago, the didn't probability,
28%. july was at 51%. and september, that was all the way at 58%. so the market continues to raise these expectations and it does seem, however, that people feel like july is a go, versus jim. >> they do not want to get ahead. alix: good call. >> i am looking at treasury tracking this is for 1-3 year treasuries. we know that money is coming out of the etf and we can see it right here. there you go. we can't see it right here and right here. it tracks those treasuries for longer maturities. and it looks like the fed could bute rates in june or july, it has less control over the long and, because that -- long ends, because that have to do --h other assets, but the the this is a near -- mirror
that shows planning. >> speaking of yields, looking at the biggest story of the week, basically the idea that the market is warming up to the prospect of a rate hike. this is unheard of over the past few years where the market is, and stocks are doing well close to the rate hike. this is the economic surprise index versus the s&p 500 white is the economic surprise. this is a big move up. we were at a level where it was at its lowest in february, coming out of bad market action. we are looking at a june or july hike, if you look, they are in an uptrend. economic surprise doing better, as opposed to december when they were both at a down trend. alix: when the market is stable, the fed is happy, so we do not see the selloff and so they do not want to pull the trigger and destabilize markets.
>> it looks comfortable at this point. >> can see all these and more on twitter. i want to bring in emi, a cofounder and -- bring in stanley, a cofounder of a firm that uses -- to analyze risk. so many guys in the hedge fund the role that world are getting -- fund world getting it wrong. how are they positioned to caption the upside? >> look. it is hard to predict where the market is going to be. we had a great week, the past is in the past, and i think the best investors can do is stick to their guns and a strategy and continue to do it they are doing. i will only one interesting statistic, hedge fund managers do a poor job of trying to find the market. historically, about 60% of over alldetract from
-- by trying to time the market it is not a great skill set. they are supposed be proficient -- in the market. on that note -- >> on that note, this is a crossroads for the industry. when you look at what happened in january it is a very common market had dispersion called by the active managers were only able to go and pick the right stocks? is this a watershed moment? can they continue to bring in money? guest: that is a great question. you are absolutely right, the hedge fund has a lack of dispersion. managerste, hedge fund were flatfoot in this move. there are new issues coming out, you know, there is an increased crowd in this, increased liquidity, out of the market now. i think, even though some hedge funds will close document we
fully expect that. having analyzed thousands of war folios that portfolios, every single hedge fund, we think that there is a lot of skill left in the space and opportunity moving forward. trade,ing about crowded a hedge fund guy i know, he does his own work, he does not listen to who owns them and he goes out of those stocks, even if he likes them, if you are in it and you want to sell, there's nobody left to sell it to if all the hedge funds are in it. the crowding has gotten them into trouble and it could colonize. are they still making that's a mistake -- that? same mistake? >> we are still seeing that. we had hedge funds being the most active market right now and they are in it to make a return. they are trying to find the security with the highest risk
reward trade-off and some of the investment thinking is similar. you can have managers crowd into the same area. that really hurts them, as we have seen. i have a chart that shows, you know, crowding increasing interlocks -- and it locks up. >> and that is liquidity decreasing, as well? basically the three-year outflow versus the actual liquidity into those are moving close together. guest: yes, there is notelation, but there is causation, one causing the other. there is a theme here, you are looking at 30 day liquidity of the entire hedge fund universe. there are 1200 managers in there and that is their portion that can be liquidated in 30 days. is the orange line, there the three-year rolling out the
-- alpha. so these are real returns. this is in 98 and 80. and it is going down quite steeply. scarlet: thank you. alix: good to see you. we have breaking news, donald trump releasing a statement on debate. he said he will not debate bernie sanders, he says that he will wait to debate the democratic nominee. of course, donald have is the presumptive nominee, yesterday clenching the right number of delegates to get that nomination. he says he will not debate bernie sanders. scarlet: we have more coming up, the main event on friday, janet yellen on the stage at harvard. next, we discussed her remarks. ♪
♪ i am mark crumpton, we will get to first word news. breaking news, donald trump says he will not debate bernie sanders, but he will debate the presidential nominee. there has been a word that a trump sanders debate could be in the works soon and that perhaps $10 million would go to charity, but again, we have now received word that i debate will not happen and that donald trump will wait to debate the democratic presidential nominee. during his visit to hiroshima on friday, president obama met with those who were witnesses to the 1945 bombing that ushered in the atomic age of war. survivors praised the president
for touching people's hearts. he has become the first sitting u.s. president to make the trip to hiroshima, without apologizing for the u.s. action in world war ii. he said that the bombing, which came after the devastating attack on pearl harbor, quote, " demonstrated that men and a time had the ability to destroy themselves." and keeping atlantic city from running out of cash. as christie says he will sign a bill tonight that has been approved by lawmakers, giving the government up to five months to balance the budget. he says it means that atlantic city has until october 24, together at together. he says the state will come into -- will do what it needs to be done. and a group of health experts are urging the world health organization to consider whether the rio de janeiro olympics should be postponed or moved because of the zika outbreak.
in an open letter, nearly 150 officials have called for the games to be delayed or relocated, in the name of public health. the real games are scheduled to begin -- the games are scheduled to begin in august. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. back to you. alix: thank you. scarlet: it was the remarks everybody was waiting for, janet yellen speaking at harvard university. her comments were relatively muted, but she did address the rate hike question. >> i have said this in the past, i think for the fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate, over time, and probably in the coming months, it would be appropriate. scarlet: we will bring in matt my who has been watching the remarks. and you are alive blogging
throughout the event. and your big take away from that moment, the way that great brought it up, where he said there are a lot of traders who are waiting to go on vacation and they cannot leave yet until you address this, so tell us what you think. >> i love how she said, and by the way, i have said this in the past imitation of a surprise, but the markets took it as a signal that a rate hike is coming in the coming months, specifically they are honing in on july meeting, which is fascinating because there is no press conference at that meeting and there is debate over whether whened can make hikes there are no press conferences. so that is interesting in the context of a market that is putting the highest probability of a hike on the july meeting. alix: and you have a chart that shows that, talk about the data that you looked at. guest: this shows the probability of a hike for any given meeting, so you can see, yesterday when the fed governor
spoke, he -- the language he used to describe the rate hikes was tentative and it led people to increase the chances of a july rate hike and degrees -- decrease the chances of a june or september hike. so these meetings where you thought these were the ones that they could raise the rate hike, they are now the ones that probably will not get it they do not want to go in june and they probably do not want to go in july and september, because those are back to back. tover: everybody i talked talk about gdp and it has not been different from expectations, they said that it will be great, the second quarter, but what is all the hawkish speak tell us about what to expect for gdp next quarter? guest: this is an important point, something that was talked about yesterday. they really want to see a significant rebound in the second quarter after the
relatively weak first-quarter. and also the relatively weak fourth-quarter that we had last year. so right now, things are looking pretty good. like you say, the gdp trackers i'm a they updated them at 2.2%. and i think that the atlanta fed is at 2.9%. so that is a strong rebound. the problem is, we only have one month of data so far, so we still have two more months of q2 data to come out. it is unclear, some of the surveys that are more forward looking indicators, are actually pointing to a slowdown in q2, so we have a divergent amount of signals and it is not clear if they will be resolved in the next couple of weeks. scarlet: and the consumer has the levers cents the financial crisis and continues to build it. guest: that is one thing that points to the solid case of a strong rebound in q2, we have consumer confidence data from
the university of michigan. this we really like because it is a proxy for the wealth effect. when you have consumers, you ask them in a survey about how they feel on their finances based on debt and assets, this will go down with the stock market falls, because they have depreciating assets and it can crimp consumer spending, but it bounces back all the way pretty much to where it was in august before we had the turmoil. so it points to a solid underpinning for the consumer spending going forward if the consumer wants to spend. >> i is wages also want to go into the consumer wealth affected as well, we have a chart on inflation, it has been a metric the fed has been waiting for. where do we stand on inflation? guest: it is an interesting correlation we are looking at in the consumer surveys and bond market. the orange line shows how there is a much less dispersion and
views of what inflation will be over the next 5-10 years, this is almost near record lows. the white line is basically the same thing in the bond market, the term premium, which will go up when people demand more compensation for uncertainty around inflation. taken see there is very little uncertainty in the market and from the consumer standpoint. and that is not necessarily a bad thing, but one thing it could mean is that it will be harder to get inflation up, and that is a concern has been expressed in recent months, that they might be getting below the 2% inflation target, but they may not be getting the boost they need for 2%, so that remains to be seen. scarlet: how can the flood that's how can the fed influence -- how can the fed influence inflation expectations? guest: you would think they could back off the top of tightening and is sort of that reckless credibility, committing
take a look at corporate bond sales, i have checked out corporate debt sales globally. we are looking at nonfinancial over $200debt, almost billion, it could hit $232 billion by the end of the month. that is an amazing figure, the question is, is it actually going to last? bank of america says in june, it will probably drop all the way $70 billion-80 $5 billion. a couple of issues, what is the rush? why bother? you had them pull forward in may and may is not as hot as it needs to be. but, if the sales are we getting and demand is strong, you will have a problem. spread will be tiny because of it. scarlet: you will see the spread tightening. and we are looking at companies continue to lever up.
i love that contrast. from my deep dive, i looking at a chart worthy of any reality show, because this is viacom, the owner of paramount pictures, and he can see that the market value has gone up and down this reassertsedstone control over the company. from the low point until now, they have recovered about 40%. this week, redstone removed a ceo of viacom and another board member from a family trust that will oversee his affairs and there have been a lot of questions raised about viacom and cbs, which they also control. it is not clear what sparked the decision, it could be made to anger someone, or it power play -- or a power play with his daughter, so this is great hollywood drama. this is the best. alix: scarlet, and her soul, is like an entertainment tonight reporter, so that is why things like this really appeal to her.
-- ir: i thought this was will talk about apple, because i think this is interesting. it has only been a big part of the stock market, especially over the course of the last couple of years, where they are almost always moving the same direction of the market. the s&p 500, it is the biggest way, and it is still the largest, currently, but this shows you the 30 day correlation between apple and the s&p 500 has gone lower. part of that is a smaller locker -- that is the smaller the market gets, the more it will move down. it is math. alix: it is good to do that, as far as apple and oil goes, but this is not the case anymore. scarlet: i love that they are down. oliver: and you have fewer institutional buyers on there. coming up, do not put the trip on the barbie just yet, we will be talking about the land down under. ♪
♪ let's getrk crumpton, to first word news. european and u.s. allies captured an emergency signal from egypt air flights 804 minutes after it came out the radar on may 19. that is according to the national oceanic and atmospheric administration. a device known as an emergency locator transmitter began at radioing an automatic distress message at 2:36 a.m., local time. the ground station in cyprus received notification of the beacon from five satellites and they provided a location in the mediterranean of a probable crash site that is accurate within about three miles. the data was turned over to
investigators who are looking at the cause of the crash. the government is out with a forecast for the atlantic hurricane season, a 45% of it being near normal. last year was below average, with 11 named storms, including hurricane walking, was killed sailors upon a cargo ship that sank. it will begin on tuesday and end on november 30. and in flint, michigan, they are being asked to flush pipes in their homes to help the city recover from the lead crisis. the state is paying water bills in may to encourage the practice. experts are concerned that people have not been running enough water to rid the system of lead. ♪ >> global news, 24 hours a day, journalists400 around the world. that to you. scarlet: thank you, we will get a recap of the market action. the s&p 500 and nasdaq closing
at their best levels of the session. 4/10 ofs&p 500 gaining 1%. the big move today was janet yellen saying that an increase in the next coming months would be appropriate. it is the fact that she did not push back against hawkish speak we have been hearing for the last couple days. it moved the dollar higher. oliver: and in equity space, every single specter, all 10 industry groups rallied on the week. alix: many people trading today. volume was really low. scarlet: the down volume -- the dow volume was down, versus 20% for the s&p and 60% for the nasdaq, so not surprising we would have a strong move since janet yellen did make some news. scarlet: it was quite after 1:00 p.m. rally wasbig risk on missing in the aussie dollar. they just had their best week since march for oil, market
currencies going higher, but one risk asset did not rally and it was the aussie dollar, so why? we will bring in michael, the commonwealth chief economist, michael, good to see you. what is going on with the aussie dollar, why is it not participating in the rally? guest: good question. the main focus in on market right now, interest rates. and they are looking at rate hikes for the aussie dollar. scarlet: where do you see the cash rate? cutt: we have another forecast, 1.25% and another number i have never thought about in my professional career. oliver: what outside of australia, what effect does an awfully cut have in the area? guest: it is more the impact on
austria, it pops up the australian dollar it gives the liberating slide in commodities, that has been a big headwinds for australia. that is why we are keen to see the currency starting to work, it is starting to produce income and support growth as well. alix: it was a few years ago, look at the oil price bust, i was looking at australia and a lot of iron operations and copper operations shutting down, many areas deserted because there were no more lines going up and it was no longer operational, so i look at that as a barometer on where the commodity cycle is going, so where do you see it now? i looked australia three years ago, it would've forecast for me what happened to oil, so what will happen with commodities three years from now? guest: we are not looking at encouraging signs out of china and they are a major trading partner committee of the biggest influence on our commodities. but we are also looking at a slow burning supply coming
through. -- slow burning supply coming through. and there is a bit more to come, but a lot of extra supplies are in crisis, so the decline is now there. oliver: the cpi inflation and wages are lower than expected, so how much does the reserve bank care about that? in the u.s., it is a big deal. are they concerned about where these levels are? guest: definitely. the first quarter readings, they were a big surprise, larger than expected. and they flashed their own inflation -- flashed their own inflation forecast. so we will be below for the next three years the 3%. scarlet: on tuesday, you're the first quarter gdp numbers coming out, it is looking like 6/10 of 1% growth. one thing not working out well, -- is still contracting and it
is ongoing, so will be the trigger that turns around? is it china and the outlook on commodities? guest: there is a massive downturn in investment. as long as that is going on, australia will be soft. and we are looking for this to pick up and to get confidence in the business sector. alix: how confident is the mining side? guest: it is about 5% of gdp. we were worried about it a few years ago, but it is a lot to digest on a small economy like australia. alix: and with iron ore prices, they are at $50.51. oliver: and goldman had a report that there will be a further surplus, so what effect will that have from the supply side? guest: australia is lucky that we of the -- we are the lowest cost producer of iron ore credit and we are picking of a market share, so we are making money
out of it. even with the low prices we have right now. alix: where is your biggest weakness in the commodity sector? guest: we are worried about the price side, it is making it difficult for the government to work on the budget deficit. scarlet: idea part of the problem? you are still producing supply, even though you are taking market share, but it is hurting income and australia, but is about perpetuating the issue? guest: it is a vicious cycle. we are one of the biggest producers of coal and iron ore, so we are part of the problem. scarlet: how do you fix that. ? alix: this is the issue that is hurting you. guest: supply will not change, the next couple of years you will have an increase in liquefied natural gas exports, though there is one supply to come. we are dependent on our markets in china and the rest of the world, and we need to be strong enough to tackle the extra supply and we think we have seen encouraging signs and it will
over time absorbed the supply, but it will not be enough to trigger another boom as we saw 4-5 years ago. alix: michael, you are in town visiting clients. scarlet: what is the number one was in my clients in the u.s. are asking and your continued surprised by? guest: i am not surprised by it, but the biggest question is what are bank is up to? and about cutting rates? the economy is doing well, except the inflation, that has been the surprise. and it is probably something people will see over the next few months, as well. oliver: we talked about metal commodities, so let's talk about the nonmetals. an article out today on the bloomberg, australia farmers, milk producers, seeking loans amid a crisis. do you care about milk? guest: it is a citizen of part of the agricultural sector and the farm sector is a big part of
the economy and we have been caught up in the problems that new zealand has with a lot of extra supply when demand has taken a setback. we will have to see it play out with a milk producers, the cost is aoduction, it clearly startling and the environment. scarlet: michael, thank you very much. scarlet: coming up, trade reforms may look good on paper, but in the long run, they could cause billions of dollars in lost gdp. we look at the risk and reward of protectionism, next. ♪
unions have reached an agreement on a new labor contract. they will not be reporting to the u.s. labor department had it means that employs will return to work after a 44 day strike. they are putting together a four-year deal and union members should return to work next week. warren buffett and berkshire hathaway -- for six straight trading days. they now own 47 million shares, a 50% stake. and memorial day weekend is upon us and gas prices are at their lowest since 2005. aaa says more than 38 million americans will be traveling this weekend, with 90% traveling by car. and that is the bloomberg business flash. -- 4 "what'd you miss?" million billion -- $4 million lost as a trade measures increase.
this shows the restrictions in countries that 2010 and there are currently over 1000, while measures removed are under 400. alix: our next guest says this is leading to a less competitive world with higher inflation and corporate margins suffering. here is frederick, the head of hsbc. why is this happening, this protectionism love? economyt is a political for a lot of people, economic market have been a spectator sport, and you have seen wealth increase and you have people perceive this not to be free-trade, but unfair trade as it were. it is easy to find scapegoats with other people around the world, of course, this becomes a political and a very easy game scoring. actually, it is all the other people's fault, making sure that we can employ it people at home
and all of those kind of arguments but the problem with that, it is also gdp. alix: and it plays well to economic audiences. scarlet: was the case to be made to restrict the cross-border trade? guest: there is one if you want to protect a certain group of workers or maybe a strategic industry, or something like that, but the vast majority of people, ultimately, if you put in restrictions, you end up with higher prices. so it is like, while it is good for everyone, it is bad for very small people and they can be vocal about these issues. alix: the steel industry, we have anti-dumping care of first deal, but it is hurting producers here. oliver: and i was going to ask about the regions where this is happening. obviously, we have no nationalistic political icons in the u.s. -- [laughter] oliver: we have a chart showing traders are just, so where are they coming from? guest: all over the world.
these are just the official numbers. if you look at all of these, not just in terms of think about terrorists test -- terrace -- a tariffs, but you think about when the g-20 said that it was not introduced more measures, but we have a more measures, this is a world we all signed up in, oh, we want free-trade, but we have gone the other way. it is interesting, even in those companies that are introducing ttip, or those in the pacific rim, these are the same that are introducing these measures, this is not just the u.s., it is much wider. scarlet: we were showing a pie chart that showed the different trade researchers, including bailouts and subsidies, trade defense and tariff increases, people to not realize the many
forms. how had it developed over time? guest: it is lumpy. i would not say there is a trend. i would say that this is a occurrence andof it is interesting, if you look at his relative to global exports, you can see the global mid-ts from 2001, from the 1990's actually all the way up to 2011, how much a growth in exports and a traitor was compared to gdp, that was about 3-1. today up by 3% or so, but it is not like that. drope have seen a complete in the gear and in the interest of the global economy. and of course, that has long-term implications, and terms of how to think about -- this is an environment with much
lower margins, this is risk, at least in the near term of inflation, picking up. and it looks at deflation, rather than inflation, which we have grown used to. oliver: how does this play into a market perspective. i think that you can speak to that and it want to bring up the pie chart, looking at the latest recommendation, your bonds in particular stand out, where you have a recommendation around 6% of it is this tactical for the three-month outlook, while we look at other banks and the average is about 33, so is this a reflection of that? guest: this is part of the story. the reason why we have so much, and the pie chart hides some of underlines, this is not necessarily the same thing in treasuries. and same thing, we have a high-yield credit, but again that is not really a path --
where we find risk premium, that is not an equity market, we have a better -- much better return opportunity in developing markets, that is in the emerging market rates oliver:. when you look at corporate margins, you guys had a really good chart in one of your recent reports, what is happening with corporate margins and it will they be able to stay at the levels they are at? guest: i think it is fascinating. no, i do not. the easy answer is, no. but it is fascinating how analysts are still putting in margin expansion expectations to rise in an environment where i would suggest that actually, this is an environment where we are looking at a margin contract rate type of environment -- contractor every type of environment and it is looking at risk and the whole argument of, you should be buying equities
that have low interest-rate, that is what we really have a problem with, because i do not think the discount rate perspective really works out. alix: thank you very much. scarlet: coming up, dell led the way this month and bought insurance, next we discussed a more detailed worldwide bond vendor that has sold over $200 billion in insurance. ♪
discussed the-- role of the fed in the bond market and the issues. guest: all of this activity is fed into a lot of volatility in the market and a lot of uncertainty. for many of the same reasons that the fed has not been able to raise rates up until this point my whether it is the price going on in the commodity market, it the uncertainty -- or the uncertainty about growth in china, or growth in the emerging markets, even the baton passing or the central bank easing going on between the bank of japan and the ecb and the u.s., there are uncertainties and what it has done is great volatility in the credit market. when we see that volatility, if we really do believe the pace, that is probably the most important thing, if we really
believe the pace of interest rate moves is going to remain slow and measured, then there is still opportunity, there is opportunity to take advantage of that volatility going on in the credit market. >> can you just elaborate on that? where is the best opportunity, tell us which countries, which sectors. guest: we absolutely like the u.s. market, we still think that the growth is in the u.s. they are kind of that one that is running at an ok pace and we are waiting for another engine to catch on, so we can move the global economy to a better place. so we do like the u.s., within the u.s., we have had opportunities. look at the political situation, the political situation is very polarizing. whether it is hillary clinton who goes into office, or donald trump, that will mean very
different things for different industries. whether it is technology, media, telecom, or pharmaceuticals and health care, they are on different sides. and that has created softness in those markets and spread widening, and that is what we are looking for. we are looking for a bond under pressure because of uncertainty, where we can jump in, pick up the excess yields, and totally even as the said is raising rates -- fed is raising rates, we will still have good returns on those bonds. >> i want to show a chart, which you will not be able to see, but i will paint a picture. essentially, it shows that there have been $232 billion worth of issuances inds may, the biggest may ever and probably the biggest month on record, so can america continue to whether such a storm of
issuance? guest: i think this is a little bit and part why the fed has felt confident in coming out and saying, do not take the summer off the table, we could raise rates after all. i think it is because the market has digested the issuance so well. even the largest yields, the dell yield, which may be denied trade great the first day, it is not pretty well -- it is now trading well. between the amount of quantitative easing going on and the lack of yields in the world, it has made the u.s. corporate market attractive and there is money out there waiting to be spent. lane stokes --a elaine stokes. scarlet: coming up, what you need to know for the next trading week. ♪
♪ --rlet: "what'd you miss?" do not miss this, the jobless rate for japan on monday and the expectation is for it to stay stable. alix: and on tuesday, do not miss the pmi for happening -- for chinese manufacturing. the service sector is holding up well. they are looking for stabilization and manufacture. oliver: the mark clarity from china, the more important for our market head and on tuesday we will be looking at the personal income and spending in the u.s., there has not been there, so weation will see were the numbers are. alix: that is all. thank you so much for watching. scarlet: see you on tuesday. oliver: have a great memorial day weekend. scarlet: making for joining us. ♪
♪ mark: hello on this friday evening on the weekend that will give everybody a time to relax, and for the political world, a time to reflect. we will start with the republican party and donald trump who has been deemed to win enough delegates to be named the presumptive republican nominee, more than ever. so john, looking back at everything that has happened, let's review. how the donald trump go from the longest of shots