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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  June 2, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EDT

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mark: fresh stimulus is expected as the ecb president ways inflation with disinflation mary government. could the new saudi minister broker a deal? jobs for yellen. the latest fed report says the u.s. economy grew at a modest pace, but is that enough for janet yellen to hit the rate hike button? today's numbers give us another glimpse of the data.
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welcome to "the pulse" live in london. big, big day in europe. all eyes on vienna. the ecb is in town. entrepreneur will hi will give his press conference. as we speak, opec begins its meeting. you can follow it on our blog. stop live go. let's check what is happening in vienna. our top stories, the opec meeting. before we go there, have a look at what is happening to european stocks. the stoxx 600 lower for a third consecutive day. don't expect much from the ecb. maybe that will tweak that forecast. that is the big announcement expected. of course, we can get more details on the corporate bond buying program, which kicks off this month.
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crude oil is out. it was lower earlier for a fifth consecutive day. as the opec ministers gathered. crude above $450 a barrel. will there be some sort of deal today? that is the big question. let's get the bloomberg first word news. nejra: the u.s. economy expanded at a modest pace causing the labor market to tighten as employers continued adding jobs and nudging wages higher, according to the federal reserve. usedatest beige book versions of the word modest or moderate 23 times. the yen has strengthened further after a bank of japan board member demanded reform, calling for 2% inflation targets a medium to long-term goal.
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he criticized the boj's negative rate policy saying it is having a tightening effect and could hurt the stability of the financial system. a new blow for abenomics. global news 24 hours a day powered by 100 50 news bureaus around the world. you can find more story on the bloomberg at top go. mark: the opec meeting in vienna. ryan chilcote is there. good morning. what do we know? we're actually inside the opec meeting. i'm actually standing next to the nigerian oil minister. let's listen in as the meeting gets underway. there he is speaking with reporters. minister, live on bloomberg, what would you like to see come out of this meeting? >> a unified conclusion. there has been too much -- the
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divisions within the opec. opec body. we would like to feel that we are cohesive, we are united. we cannot agree on every issue, but at the end of the day, -- the collective position. ryan: to get that unity, do you need to see a production target? >> not necessarily. doubt that is the major focus right now. i think somehow the market is -- a matter of natural forces. a lot of natural calamities and militancy issues out of nigeria. talking about the rest of the world. beginning to effectively control laws of supply and demand. enhance the price movement is something that the whole body will look at. ryan: what kind of intervention would you like to see? >> my personal view is not to do
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anything is probably a positive thing. ryan: the other thing you are deciding here, minister, as whether opec is going to get a new secretary-general. nigeria has a candidate. many people think he is the front runner. what he think the odds are that your candidate is going to be appointed secretary-general at this meeting? >> i certainly hope that everybody will see the duty and unique capabilities he brings to this position. he has been ex-governor, secretary general. i'm sure that knowing the focus on skill sets ultimately everyone will land with us. ifn: a lot of people say opec is unable to agree on a secretary-general that would be a sign of weakness. for years, opec has been trying to solve this. >> i'm almost certainly will find a secretary-general today. much.thank you very you heard nigeria's oil minister let me show you the lay of the land. 13 oil ministers, most of them
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new. 9-13 have been in their jobs for less than two years. the saudi oil minister the most influential in the room. month.ointed just last very important to listen to what these ministers have to say. we have the acting, current secretary-general in front of us now. secretary-general, your live on -- excuse me, secretary-general, your live on bloomberg television. what would you like to see accomplished at this meeting? >> to agree on the agenda. and the subject, that will be presented to them. ryan: would you like to see a new secretary-general? you have wanted to step down for some time. >> it is for them to decide. ryan: there is talk about a production target. if opec does not agree on a production target at this meeting, is that a failure? >> let us wait and see.
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thi subject will maybe be discussed in a closed sessions. let us wait for the results. ryan: what is your sense of the oil market, sir? >> it is improving. the economy is improving, prices improving. time, -- really the bad the bad -- is over now. i'm looking forward to more improving the price. ryan: thank you very much for your time. we appreciate it. appointing a successor as the secretary-general is one of the things that is on the agenda here today. we were just talking with the nigerian oil minister. he wants the nigerian candidate. we will let you know if they're able to achieve that goal. one of the things that all of the ministers agree on is they need to show unity, unity they feel was lacking after what took place on doha in april.
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the last opec meeting in december of last year. this is the mother of media scrums. right there behind the cross of reporters is the brand-new saudi oil minister. his first meeting. he is filling in. he is the successor, appointed a month ago. his first meeting after his predecessor did the job attending some 70 meetings. very important to listen to what he has to say and how he sees the future of opec at this meeting. mark: great job. we will come back to later. the irrepressible ryan chilcote. no oil minister is safe with ryan chilcote in the room. have a look at what is having to the price of oil. brent crossing $50 a barrel. nymex crude on the cost of - cusp of $49.16. the current secretary-general, is there going to be some sort
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f deal to mend debentures -- divisions? brent crude and nymex crude both rising today. let's get the other top story today out of vienna. the ecb day. draghi will probably have little fresh monetary stimulus to offer when he briefs reporters later. are likelyojections to reinforce the perception that, despite monetary easing, the ecb is still struggling to meet its inflation goal. for more, we are joined from by paul gordon. the latest stimulus package is feeding through. the key focus will be on the new economic forecast. what are we expecting? opec yes, you heard the secretary-general saying the bad times are over.
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that is good news for the ecb in terms of inflation. it may help the ecb upgrade this year's inflation forecast from the 0.1% it had before. by 2017 and 2018 is ing to be much harder. the base effect of oil prices will drop out unless oil continues to rise. it has got massive monetary stimulus. new measures announced in march. some of those have not been implement it. yet, we understand it is not likely to upgrade its inflation forecast much if at all. and that is partly because governments, in the view of e cb, are not playing their part. mark: is there a feeling within the ecb that it is undermined by government in action on reform? heard a rising chorus of ecb officials coming out and saying structural reforms are essential, critical.
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the time is running out to set a roadmap for a struggle european monetary union. there does to be some sense that the ecb is reaching a limit of what he can do. unless use the fiscal space if they have it, use their fiscal policy sensibly and in the longer term get structural reforms through. it could be years before we get back to the inflation -- price stability goal. on the ecb later as the ecb meets indiana today. i want to show you are chart of the hour which demonstrates the challenges faced by mario draghi. less than two years since he told investors he would increase 's balance sheet early 2012 levels. in an effort to his goal of inflation less than 2%. ecb assets are at that level. they are over 3 trillion euros, but look at inflation. it is nowhere to be seen. -.1%. negative for the fourth consecutive month.
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let's introduce our guest. for joining us. lots of excitement indiana today. let's start with the oil price because there is talk we could see some sort of mending of divisions within opec. we could see the re-itation of the production target. is that likely? this ofam not so sure the agree. it is important that the opec show us -- at 50 isrobably a i feelere we feel -- there will be no major announcement. still, i think the oil price will stay in this kind of range for the next 3-6 months. mark: the ecb will be happy with oil's upward trajectory. in theory that should help inflation, in reality it isn't, -.1use cpi is at
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luca: i do not think the economy in europe is particularly weak. growth is not terrible. nominal gdp growth in europe is the same as in the u.s. i think we are probably exaggerating the weakness in the european economy. we will does that mean not need more stimulus down the line? we are going to get details public today of the corporate bond buying program. a necessity later in the year to press the stimulus button once again? luca: that depends on growth because i do not think that europe can - from the rest of the world. i think if we see weakness in the rest of the world the ecb would be forced do more. our view is that the ecb will keep the program as it is and wait a few months until we know more about the global economy it, if it is going to get better or worse. mark: what is your baseline scario for the global economy? was fairly critical of
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some of the biggest developed economies for lack of of limitation of structural reform and fiscal stimulus. luca: i think if you look at the global economy there are -- in emerging markets, the u.s. is struggling even if consumption is quite strong. we are going to see a marginal improvement but global growth is weak because it is a secular issue. not cyclical. mark: stay with "the pulse." plenty coming up. as oil hovers around $50 a barrel, we will ask if the saudis can men's divisions in opec. saudi arabia is also the story for uber. it picked up its biggest ever investment as the kingdom sovereign wealth fund gets on board, plus with exactly three e.u. referendum,
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we will look at the direction of travel in the u.k.'s brexit debate. ♪
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brent trading in the upper end of $49. opec ministers say that saudi could propose an output ceiling, although any deal will need support. that is highly unlikely. ryan chilcote is on the ground. he has a ready -- already stuck
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the microphone in the face of the nigerian oil minister. ryan, could we get a surprise deal on production ceilings today? ryan: well, let's see about that. you are looking at the new saudi oil minister. much for joining us live on bloomberg television. i know the meeting is to get underway -- needs to get underway. do you think we can get in a production target agreed to? >> we have not started the meeting so i cannot tell you what the outcome is. what i can tell you is that we in saudi arabia as well as other delegations have spoken to since all see the market in a positive way. we see a balance market. we see supply and demand converging. startedhat we may have inventory drawdowns that will continue for the for seeable future and will bring
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inventories back to the normal range. we are satisfied with the price movement over the last few months. and we think that it will continue to gently edge up without much intervention, assuming that more or less opec production stays at the levels where it is. whether we achieve that through or throughze or cap just better stewardship and responsible action by individual producers is really irrelevant. the important thing at the end of the day is the fundamentals. supply and demand remaining to trend the way they are trending, where demand is picking up in a healthy way, and supply having declined in some regions creating the slight shortage that is strong down inventories. so, opec will stay engaged with
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the market. we will meet our targets -- various delegations. and saudi arabia will continue to play its role, a role of responsibility, responsiveness to the market and to the needs of the global community. and i also want to say that we are very resilient. we have the capacity to respond to the markets. we have the capabilities in terms of our fiscal capabilities to deal with the downturn that we have seen over the last couple years, for an extended time. but i do not expect it to be required. clearlythe world is behind us and we are on our way. we just hope we will reach equilibrium at a level that does not shock the fledgling economic recovery. the strategy that saudi arabia has been championing of letting the markets fix themselves? >> i think the markets fix
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themselves. i illustrated that. supply and demand have responded. we are back to a balanced position. and opec countries, notably saudi arabia, did not have to take drastic cuts in our production that would have pushe coming from-- other regions to accelerate. so i believe that strategy that opec adopted in 2014 has indeed succeeded. ryan: -- thank you very much. that was the oil minister of saudi arabia. appointed one month ago. speaking to us live inside the opec meeting itself. pretty think extraordinary stuff. stay with us. a lot more coverage from opec. that has been full of surprises. we will have to see whether opec surprises today.
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re-introducing that production target or appointing a new secretary-general. mark? mark: great job. congratulations on that interview with the new saudi oil minister. more excitement from vienna. let's get back to our studio guest. chief strategist -- saudi arabia must be ever so chuffed minister says the market is balance, supply and demand converging. he's satisfied with the price movement. that strategy in 2014 of protecting market share, it's worked. oil price nowthe is a level where everyone can be happy with. a little bit of upside but a think everybody will approve the current level of the oil price. mark: let's talk acid allocation. how are you feeling right now, equities versus bonds?
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-- let's talk asset allocation. uca: we thought the u.s. economy is not really getting stronger. china's economy is going down more than up. l act in a few months. we thought it was time to review some exposure to equities for the next 1-2 months. mark: on a regional basis, what does that mean? luca: we think the biggest upside is for europe, because everybody seems to be worried about the situation in europe. when you look at the valuation, if you look at ecb. we feel the upside is for europe. mark: initially we got that lift at the start of last year though april -- through april when mario draghi announced bond buying. ever since then, it has been a slightly downward trajectory. why haven't we seen a boost from q.e. in the equity market some might've expected? luca: a year ago almost
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everybody was overweight european equities. high expectations for the second one, which is more important, is that the european, if you look at european equities, if you look at earnings, it has been quite weak. we think now with the euro actually being weaker we feel that the earnings cycle will come up. mark: predicting that turn up, the arctic cycle for a long time in europe -- the burning cycle for -- the earnings cycle for a long time. within thely, fixed incomes pay shoe are saying you remain overweight u.s. government bonds. what does that tell you about your forecasts of the timing of the first u.s. interest-rate hike? the u.s.,eel that for we are probably going to see just one rate hike this year. is that think it critical because one or two dozen does not make a
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difference. it is the ford guidance. and the fed will remain very dovish. forward guidance. mark: we have the nonfarm payrolls report to market emerging markets, have come off the boil. the rally we saw from february across emerging-market assets least for to have at now run its course. where next for emerging-market assets? luca: we have sovereign exposures to yen in the last two weeks because we feel the stimulus and china is coming to an end. there was a lot of short position in the yen a two-month ago. it has now been completely reverse. we need to see more upside for the global economy. we need to see a weaker dollar and we are not yet their for the yen to have another bounce in the next few months. mark: meanwhile the japanese prime minister has botteed in --
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booted into the distance the idea of a sales tax hike. until the on them, there was talk we might see a stimulus package in the near term, but the autumns seems to be the timeframe for that. is that disappointed? wouldn't an injection of stimulus be welcome by the economy and by markets? luca: i think a lot is priced in. i think the announcement was not a surprise. the worry about japan is that you don't see any pick up in growth. consumption is the same as three years ago. so i think japan needs a shock. it is difficult to see it. if the global economy does not really improve. we are waiting for this improvement. en i think the panel do very well. mark: right. up next, it is a big focus today. can the saudis mend divisions within opec and push oil even higher? we will look at the prospects
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for a deal indiana. that's next -- a deal in vienna. ♪
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mark: welcome to "the pulse" live in london. have a look at what is happening to equities today. little change ahead of the big ecb meeting. opec ministers gathering. nejra? nejra: i'm starting with european stocks were little changed on the sto 600 ahead of the ecb meeting. so, this is a little dull. what i want to show you is what is happening with euro--doll. this trade, we have broken through 1.12 today. we have seen the euro rise to
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its highest in the week ahead of the ecb meeting been a lot of people saying this trade is much less about the ecb, much more about u.s. jobs and where the f ed is going. this chart shows that euro volatility curve steeping. the premium on one week euro- dollar volatility has reached the most since may 5. what this shows is the focus on this trade is actually shifting to yellen from brexit. this isssuming, of course, you see risk for this trade in the event of brexit. guess what? look at the end of that line. the spread has hit positive territory for the first time volatilityne-month gauge started capturing the june 23 referendum. this trade very much focused on the u.s. than on ecb or brexit. sticking with currencies, got to look at dollar-yen, the yen is heading for its first three-day rally in a month.
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after a 1.1% surge against the dollar yesterday. a lot of things playing into this. abe delaying the sales tax hike. a wild a wildn expected fiscal stimulus package. we have had negative comments from a the og boar -- a boj board member. finally, i am not going to be able to add much to ryan chilcote's performance at opec but i wanted to show you that brent did top $50 a barrel before the meeting started. so, we have taken your inside opec indiana. let's get more analysis, despite rising from 85% from its loans earlier this year, our next guest things oil prices in the third quarter likely to average lower than the current quarter. let's welcome the oil market analyst at barclays. we have been gripped to ryan chilcote. you were watching him earlier today.
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interesting to hear that new man in charge of saudi oil policy. are we going to get the -- three the reinstatement of the production target today? that is the story of the day, or does it really know better? >> there are a few hope surrounding this at the moment. what we need to remember is we need an absolute consensus at opec. a unanimous decision. i.e., each and every member needs to agree it is not majority. there are a few members, most n, that havea responded to this by saying we need individual quotas to be initiated if there are going to be gruoup quotas, which makes sense from irna's point of view theyan's point of use or can make sure they can expand while some other competitors -- saudi arabia, do not get strapped onto $10.6 million
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today. that is one angle. i think it will be very difficult to initiate a group target but that said, for the market, it does not really matter because they are producing well above the target. 32.5 million barrels today. part of opec's market share strategy, which is come to f ruition. so, if it does take place, it will be a very much just a cosmetic one. mark: is it part of the effort by the saudis to mend relationships, to sort of reach out the all of branch treatment? -- the olive branch treatment? is that part of it, after the disaster of doha, we will call it? >> yeah. i mean, they do badly need to get their reputation back. it is a nexus statue question for opec, given the last two
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meetings have been a disaster. and this is one way where they can say, guess what? we all agreed on something, and that is that we actually have a production target now as opposed to what they scrapped off in december. so, it is absolutely a step they can take. but in terms of market impact, i do matters to all of us, not think it adds anything. we have seen a lot of comments from the minister. everyone is patting their back saying the market is balancing. our strategy is working. but if you think about it, it is thislly the -- that led to immediate -- mark: what happens when libya, nigeria , ira qnad venezuela comes back -- iraq and venezuela comes back? >> that is what we are factoring in. the markets would have naturally balance by the tail end of this year or q one 2017.
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with that sort of return, columbia is returning. -- colombia is returning. nigeria is a more endemic issue because of its nature. but there are a few other sources of supply they could return. canada, the wildfire, that is temporary. that's started to return as well. c needs to deal with that. and i am not sure if they are seeing statements from ministers this outagehere'es this that helped us. what are we going to do in one or two months' time? . francine: we have seen the -- mark: we have seen the peak. you are saying the price will be lower in the third quarter. >> we have a medium-term outlook which is upward bound, but it is in the very near term. if you look at while market positioning and in terms of how
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fast prices have rallied, we think it is gone too far too soon. and there is a risk of a correction before we ultimately go higher. mark: what is that correction mean? l. -- an average price for oi brent has gone about $50 a barrel. so, slightly lower in q3. but then we have a slightly higher price target for q4. but it's v ery -- are: brent is $60 a barrel, the shale produces going to come on stream again? >> yes. we want them to come back and the price is a determinative price where shale comes back to plug the divide because of all the adjustments creating the supply deficit next year. so, $60 a barrel is a price that will incentivize that bit of shale that we need to come back in the market. and help balance.
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mark: the secretary-general successor? ryan has been waiting for four years for a successor. theoday the day that maybe nigerian oil minister will be named the next secretary-general? >> officially, i've heard angola supports the new candidate, nigeria. among the others, i have not heard statements yet. so, you have to see what the decide, but they are not saying -- they are saying he is a neutral candidate rather than appointing someone from saudi arabia or iran. from libya has had an easy time because he is a neutral candidate, and he has done a good job as well. so that's seems to be tricky one. but, yeah, there is a slight hope building for that new candidate. mark: today might be the day after four years.
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thanks for joining us. right. itsext, uber picking up biggest investment yet. a look at who is getting on board and how much they're paying. stay with us. ♪
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mark: let's get the bloomberg first word news. nejra: the u.s. economy expanded at a modest pace since mid-april. causing the labor market to
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tighten as employers continued adding jobs and nudging wages higher. according to the federal reserve, it's latest beige book report may do little to change officials outlook for the economy. versions of the words modest or moderate 23 times. the ecb meets indiana for its latest -- in vienna. mario draghi will have little fresh monetary stimulus. updated economic projections are likely to reinforce the perception that despite massive monetary easing, the ecb is still struggling to meet its inflation goals. the yen has strengthened further after a bank of japan board member demanded reform, calling for a 2% inflation target a medium to long-term goal. negativeized the boj's rates saying it is having a tightening rather than it easing effect and could hurt the stability of the financial system. it is a new blow to abenomics, a day after the
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sales tax increase has been postponed until 2019. global news powered by 2400 journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories at top go. mark: uber raising $3.5 billion from the saudi arabia well front, the company's biggest investment yet. for more let's get to our tech reporter. in paris. what's uber going to do with all this money? marie: it does seem like a hell of a lot of money for uber. in the latest fundraising, it is its biggest ever. the saudis are putting in $3.5 billion, bringing uber to $52.5 billion. a massive amount of money pouring into car hailing applications and into market leader uber. what that shows is that these car hailing companies need that money as they tried to make a
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push internationally. and uber especially is facing a hefty dose of competition from local players across the board. in china, its biggest competitor -- earlier this month said it was raising $3.5 billion, and part of that, $1 billion, is coming from apple. uber's facing didi in china and elders elsewhere. it needs to put the money were consumers need it. mark: why so much money pouring into these car hailing apps? marie: part of that is the amount of competition in the markets. even iny today, europe, very small competitors cabify that are going after little bits of the pie. so, they are going after enterprise or business customers to get a bit of uber's customer base. are going to expanded
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to more countries like china or india they need a lot of cash. so, that is partly why they went to the saudis. in the latest round and why previously they have attracted investors from morgan stanley to goldman sachs and to amazon's jeff bezos, as we see appetite from investors for the car hailing industry. mark: does the latest fundraising round lessen the need for uber to go public? marie: it definitely shows them pushing back. that deadline and the need to go public. that's not just uber, though. it is something we've seen win many of the rivals. though maybe that will change in the coming months, as we see the chinese rival did looking at an ipo. that will be one to keep an eye out for. receiving $3.5
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billion investment from the saudi arabia wealth fund. in paris.eporter let's return to events in the u.k. there is exactly three weeks ago into the u.k. referendum labournext hour, the party leader jeremy corbyn will warn that a vote to leave the e.u. will threaten worker rights. he will threaten -- regulations to 28 days of paid leave per year. women longer maternity leave. and the prime minister, david cameron, will field voters questions in a tv special tonight. he will focus on the economic dangers of the so-called brexit. supporters of the vote to leave are increasingly concentrating on the risk of immigration. let's bring in our u.k. government politics reporter. jeremy corbyn has been notable by his absence in this debate. rob: he has, yes. jeremy corbyn historically does not think that britain should be
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in the european union. that was how he voted the last time we had about. that has en his position. when he became leader of the labour party he s set down by people, this is a pro-european party you are leader of. he said at that point he was persuaded of the argument for staying in. how much that was the argumt of staying in and how much of that was the arguments about leaving his party is, only he knows. but the reason that he's being out, despite his lukewarm support for a main, is there there is this great fear on the remains side that labour voters are not solid. labour activists are solid for staying in the european union. mark: the party itself, as in members, do not even know they are pro-e.u. rob: party supporters don't know.
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they do not know what the party thinks. and there has always been this argument, someone put it to me, they said the road to brexit is ur constituencies, where people feel the difficulties of immigration. they see their wages being driven down. they see large amounts of immigration. they are very worried about it. and labour mp's need to get that vote out. mp's are very worried they need to get their vote out. so, jeremy corbyn is being pulled out. if you support labour, you vote in. now, whether that work is a really interesting question. mark: at the same time, prime minister cameron faces the audience -- not quite debate. he will not debate one-on-one with the opposition. bring ite'll try and back away from immigration, cked the economy. rob: yes, absolutely. -- i am goingaign to a speech from the pimm fox.
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-- from liam fox. you cannot controimmigration without leaving the european union. the remain campaign is economy, economy, economy. your job is at risk, your business wl close if we leave the european union. tonight, cameron will focus on the undecided voters. we have seen that number coming down as people start to engage. start to edgeeave ahead and a few polls, which has got the markets quite worried. and cameron will be focusing on those undecided voters, who, quite interesting if you dig into the polling numbers. mainly undecideds are like everyone, they probably think the same things and spend a lot of time saying i don't know in polling. if you try and ask them sideways questions like, how would you feel if you thought this would make this poorer? they, there was, there are two waysof looking at it, one says that 2/3 of voters do not think
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that brexit will make thatem poorer. if you look on either side, twice as many do think it would make them poorer as think it would make them richer. if you think there is a normal distribution, the center edges towards this will probably make rather than this will make the richer. that is where the undecideds are. so, cameron will be pushing those undecideds. if you don't know, it is a no. mark: rob hutton. up next, thee has been modest growth in the u.s. according to the fed's latest facebook. -- latest beige book. what is the probability of an imminent rate hike? ♪
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>> we see a balanced market, supply and demand conversions. have started an inventory drawdown that will continue for the perceivable future and will bring inventories back to the normal range. oil minister speaking to ryan chilcote in a bloomberg first. the opec meeting in vienna pe well done. ryan. are we likely to see the oil production closer to reinstated then, or not? oil ministerhe from saudi arabia said it is irrelevant.
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what is important is that under some kind of unity amongst the group. four real things we're looking for. one is can the oil ministers agree on anything, can they agree on a production target, can they agree on a new secretary-general? oillly, the saudi minister, can he be part of the healing process? opec is a deeply fractious group. there is a lot of bickering. we will be watching whether he will be able to bring about that healing process that so many of the oil ministers have told me they want to see in so many observers say they absolutely must get if they want to remain relevant? the dynamic of opec, back in 2014, the change in the makeup is the norm a spirit justfour members remain the same for when saudi implemented this market share policy. does the makeup of opec held attain that unity which you are
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talking about? way, iou know, in a think it does. if you think about it, the saudi oil minister was appointed a month ago. oilou say, four of the 13 ministers were in their jobs or have been in their jobs for more than two years. will bee ministers making their own decions in many cases. and they may be open to change, theable to bridge differences that have led to the division within opec. we will just have to see. just because they are new doesn't mean they are that much more prepared to get along. mark: great job. we will see you more later. ryan chilcote indiana. the u.s. economy grew at a modest pace across most of the country since mid april, according to the fed's beige book. today we get private payrolls
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ahead of the u.s. jobs number. michael mckee, how much weight the the beige book add to raise rates argument? mike: it doesn't contradict your view that the economy could use a rate rise if that is the way you are implying. but it does not offer support to the idea the economy is straining to get ahead. it used the word "modest" 23 times in a summary. at this point, we are looking for more data. the jobs report tomorrow will probably help a lot. mark: our work function is not buying a june increase. why is that? fund futures are imperfect but they do seem to suggest the market is saying, what is your hurry? we can move in july. the fixed income market, the two year note, has priced in a move but future traders want more data. mark: great to see you. michael mckee in new york. a busy 24 hours for him.
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stay with us. bloomberg "surveillance" is next. ♪
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>> tomorrow is jobs day. we consider the underlying confidence of america, back and forth, back and forth. the markets define the first days of june. vienna is sold out. the e.c.b. and opec have a disagreement. it's gorgeous in vienna. speaking of gorgeous, we have caroline in london and i'm tom kean. e.c.b. and opec, it's packed.

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