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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  June 3, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EDT

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anna: jobs data, usa, the payroll data is expected to match april's number. does the eu referendum hold a key to the june rate hikes? isghi insists his program only half done. riskan says the growing that outflow in china make celebrate as the yuan weakens. is there a risk of another rout? ♪ anna: this is "countdown" live
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from london. the big number out of the u.s., of course, we also think about what the fed is going to do in june, or july. this takes on added providence -- prominence. the job she really outlined for the dollar has been doing. dollar bouncing since the start of may. it was the april minute of the federal reserve that had a fire under markets and changed expectations a little bit. chance of a 22% hike in june. it is not a certainty that we will see that, and bear in mind these numbers today, what will the participation rate be, what will the wages be? complex, as always is than just one number. hundred 60,000 is the expectation. let's he remarked a day after the ecb.
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currency, fairly well stuck in a rut. been the least volatile the past three months than anytime since january, 2015. the pound against the dollar, it is been a good week for the pound and a reassessment around that brexit brexit risk. implied volatility soaring. it is the highest since february 2009. brent just holding its head above the $50 a barrel mark, but retreating a touch since yesterday. they did manage to agree a new secretary-general, u.s. stockpile data, and production numbers. let's get the bloomberg first word news now. noble groupnks, shares jumping -- slumping to their lowest since 2003 after announcing the need to raise half $1 billion to pick up. and founderrman
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says he intends to go within a year. that is a 62% discount from the thursday close. donald trump said hillary clinton should be sent to jail for her use of a private e-mail server. he said she was guilty. clinton delivered a critique of trump saying he was unfit to be president. i believe the person, the republicans have nominated for president cannot do the job. [applause] ideas are just's different, their dangerously incoherent. even really ideas. they're just a theory of bizarre ands, personal cues,
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outright lies. rishaad: goldman sachs sees growing risk of outflows from china. they think the capital flight could go over to selloffs like with those we saw in january. it is in its longest losing streak since december. david cameron suspended himself against the claims that he is scaremongering. exactly three bees before the eu referendum. delighted we're holding this referendum. it is a promise i made, and i will carry out the instruction of the british people. thankfully, i think the job of the prime minister is to warn about potential dangers. say they are bullish for british business. he was speaking to bloomberg. are five point 2 million
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businesses, hardly any of them trade with the eu. yet, there bound up by the red tape and regulation that comes with being part of what is called a single market. actually, but it is a protectionist customs union. as for as international trade is concerned, we will be free to strike our owed trade deal -- with the rest of the world. i'm very bullish for british business. shaad: paris of the second-highest alert level in more than 30 years of the french capital. distort our work, including the mona lisa, will shut its doors today. the flooding also disrupting travel on motorways and some railway lines. more downpours are forecasted over the weekend, there was a band from central europe from france to the ukraine. anna: thank you very much.
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let's check the live markets in asia. yvonne has details for us. we're in the no man's land, post ecb, pre-payroll. investors are on something to do footing right now. we've seen nothing happening on the ecb. some disappointment in there, and brexit could be weighing on some investor's minds as well. you can see here, most equity markets in asia in the green. ching slightly higher when it comes to the weekly totals. nowdays up, two days down, flat here in asia. we are tracking some gains overnight. now, a bloomberg analysis coming in saying that look, we're expecting to see these jobs coming in. ut, brexit may have a bigger
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fed's decision in a surprisingly jobs data. they could leave rates unchanged at june even every see a positive surprise for the jobs data. the s&p 500 up about one third of a percent. pretty tepid performances, the hang seng about a third of 1%. shanghai already mentioned about ist, and the currency risk there. it could weaken once again. sparkingd potentially some concerns about another broad selloff we could see. the yen, that is one thing we should be watching. we are seeing it back on the upside. 108.66 is where we stand. we're going for the first weekly gain since the end of april.
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some stocks here in the asia-pacific, one is we tell up 6.4%, they're seeing sales in japan rose close to 6%. that is the best data there seen in five months. about 2.3% after we heard from multiple private bids forrms evaluating the company. that is boosting sentiment. finally, noble down 13% after the chairman said he wants to step down in the next 12 months or so. the modern good for these traitor. anna: thank you. that have heard, we get to jobs data out of the u.s. later. here with a look at what can expect. 60,000, that is with the bloomberg median forecast projects when the u.s. bureau of labor statistics reports in
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nonfarm payroll system if true, that would match april's growth with the country added the fewest number of workers in seven months. against the context of last year, that would also be about 70,000 jobs lower than 2015's average of two or 29,000 jobs created each month. 000re are a few -- 229, crated each month. there are some exceptions, verizon had a work stoppage involving 35,000 workers. those employees were protesting the company's push to make them pay more for their health benefits. we might to the auto sector take a bit of a hit after two major earthquakes in japan in april that cause supply problems. other data points, the length of the work week is expected to match april's number at 34.5 hours, eliza dement earned more money. off of that, average hourly earnings are expected to climb .2% bed is like decreasing growth of peoples .3%, and unemployment rate is expected to % from the current
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5%. that would be the lowest level since the brewery, 20 oh -- level since 2008. fund futures looking at a higher chance for a rate hike in the summer. robert kaplan says he is looking for solid growth in the numbers. he doesn't want the central banks to be tempted to move too quickly. >> i think we're getting to the point where it will make sense to remove some level of accommodation in the near future. what does that mean? for me, it is in the selling mean june coming into june or july. i would be advocating that we take an additional step. was: robert kaplan there, i pick a little later on to the chicago federal reserve president. 10:00 u.k. time
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he is here in the u k. let's go to the conversation, the global macro savages at ubs , welcome both of you to the program for some let's talk a little bit about the fed and what is on the fed's mind. it is payroll day. --y suggest that payrolls sorry, brexit could more important to the fed in june that whatever the. number says today. how do you feel about that? are theinly, if you last meeting, they mention brexit explicitly as one of the risks. the other one is devaluation of the yuan and management of the yuan, and follow the weakening of the yuan. they are aware of these risks and it is no rush to hike because we are seeing inflation pickup. probably, our economist view, they will wait until september or december.
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in june, markets are coming around. about 20% or 30% for the markets point of view, so we're kind of coming around to the view that hikes could happen in june. we think it will happen later in the year. anna: do you think later in the year as well? are the expectations in june, 22% in june, 54% in july, that is no -- by no means a market certainty. megan: i think it's is the most internationally minded fed that we've ever seen. that reason, obama else, the fed is really eager to hike this summer. much case, the real question is june or july. there is this brexit risk, but it may press conference they could scramble him everyone would know it was coming. ill and of having to talk about it at the june press conference
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in which case the market will react and they might as well just hike in june. anna: goldman sachs sending and a warning overnight talking about the increasing risk of capital outflow from china. back to this point about them being an international said. we so it happened last summer will recite market rout in august a long concerns about chinese currency. ramin: we have seen weakening in the yen, but they have been opportunistic about this for double the dollar weakens, they look at this. that is a nice excuse for weakening the yuan versus the dollar. but it makes perfect sense. it was fairly disastrous from their point of view last year in terms of competitiveness. it makes perfect sense to move toward this as a kind of peg for their currency. that what can of detail would look in today's release in payrolls, taking into account what we said about how they fit
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into a broader, more global picture these days? the jobless rate coming down, and the average hourly earnings -- that is the wages measurement, gradually moving higher over the past six months or so. do you think this is where the focus should be? on the wages element, or a participation? look to theays headline. much more important than the quantity of jobs was the quality of jobs. what kind of wages are we getting? that is the most important figure to bed what the fed is going to do. higher wages will push inflation up, that is one of the fed key mandate. i don't think we'll get particularly strong wage growth for the may jobs report because we haven't for the past couple of years. i don't see that changing anytime. but if the fed can justify a rate hike, i think they will. anna: i have another chart for you, the u.s. -- on the ism in areyork, the weakness we
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seeing in that. the activity contracting at its fastest pace in seven years. mrs. not the whole u.s. economy. with that as a backdrop, we're talking about moderate, some of the signals around the fed this summer, is there a lack of urgency, perhaps? is tightening and financial conditions. tightening oneen the survey, and on dollar strength, all of those are trading tightening financial conditions without the fed having to do anything at all. the recent yen its to this hike and it is lower. we think the reacharound 2.9%. is lower.hat it we see this implicit tightening to the credit spreads. anna: thank you both very much.
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both staying with us a longer on the program. here are some highlights for the day ahead, u.s. on -- nonfarm payroll starts today. after the market closes, watch out for a sovereign rating update. we will be live in south africa to get a preview of what we could see. and just to secretary michael gove lays at his case for britain to leave the eu. he is part of the government that wants to leave the eu. up next, mario draghi insist the ecb stimulus program is only half done. what does that mean? ♪
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anna: welcome, this is "countdown," the hang seng up now. let to get to the bloomberg business flash. a buyout securing $60 billion. they say their selected bank of america. sachs,suisse, goldman and to each provide 12.5 billion dollars in short-term loans should the deal go through it would create the biggest supplier a farm chemicals and the seeds. more private equity company said to be interested t ina -- in takata. discussions are still at an early stage. a is facing billions of dollars of costs for its
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potentially lethal product. twitter reportedly met with discuss aanagement to possible merger. that is according to the new york post which they say got the information from people who were unnamed and familiar with the matter. the article goes on to talk several hours of discussions, and at twitter they are apparently bowed out of the process and declined to comment on the report. that is the bloomberg business flash. interest rates to remain low for an extended time, that was the message from ecb president mario draghi yesterday. here are some of the highlights from his news conference in vienna. >> we continue to expect them to remain, at present, at lower levels for an extended period of the horizonll past of our net asset purchases for stub looking ahead, of the business of current futures
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arees, inflation rates likely to remain very low, or negative, in the next few months before picking up in the second half of 2016. start makinge will purchases under our corporate sector purchase program. starting on 22, june, welcome that the first operation ,n our new series of targeted longer-term, refinancing operations. the governing council will closely monitor the evolution of the+++
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foreign did to achieve its objective, will act by using all the instruments of -- available within this mandate. it is quite clear, however, that we will not hesitate to act. anna: mario draghi at the ecb, there. let's bring back in ramin and megan, what did you make of the ecb yesterday? he expected interest rates to stay at present or lower interest rates. to that move markets more than it did? ramin: people were expecting him to do nothing, and that is exactly what he did. we are very excited about the program, but i think overall the number of people watching was the inflation number. that came out of 1.6 percent, that a trouble of that 2% target. what did -- what he did not sell my quest to hawkish. he made the point several times that he thought it would be weaker. people pulled it off very well,
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i thought. we now details which i think will be a bit of a game changer for that market. anna: some people talking about whether we reach diminishing returns on this. much of theve stuff that is been announced has not been amended. megan: the question is, how full they will he be? bond purchases will be useful, but the ecb had to do that because there were going to run out of german assets. it is also interesting because it is an effective transfer, the real question is whether it is a supply, or a demand issue. it doesn't matter if there is cheap loans available. is it just not enough? megan: it has been, the question is what is the price of it? loan costs have come down, particularly in the periphery.
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is it enough to really drive a recovery in the euro zone? not yet. ramin: it has already floated around. one could be repaid, in fact we see a net tightening. there's already a lot of liquidity in the system. the effectiveness is going to be lower. anna: much more to talk about about corporate bond buying. [laughter] the: what about effectiveness of draghi? you said he sounded not too hawkish, i've seen some scathing criticisms from some people this morning on bloomberg talking about how he can't move the euro in the way he used to. if you compare how much the euro move during his press conference to previous ones, he would say it is on the target of his monetary policy, is it? long as it stays on
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current levels, that it's ok. we are quite happy with that. if it strengthens more, you'll probably started talking down the euro more. i don't think that is a problem at the moment. the volatility of the euro is fairly low. he has achieved to stability, but the key will be stimulating growth. reaching that inflation target, yes have to do more. that is why these two schemes, it will be interesting to see that pans out. anna: the things he's already announced, not started yet, what you thinking? megan: the ecb, the boj, will all have to do more. they may have to get more aggressive, not just interview cutting rates, what if there is a downturn engaging in helicopter grounds. anna: we will see if we hear the whirring of those motor blades. thank you very much, both of you.
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ramin will stay with us a little bit longer. opec optimism, miniatures rejected output ceiling but united run hopes that the market will bounce back. ♪ okay, ready?
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get america's fastest internet. only from xfinity. ," let'sis is "countdown get to the bloomberg first word news. group shares are slumping to its lowest since 2003. week,losing its ceo this and the chairman says he intends to go within a year. it is a 62% discount from thursday's close. donald trump saying hillary clinton should be sent to jail for the use of a private e-mail
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server while secretary of state. guilty, earlier thursday clinton delivered a blistering critique of trump on foreign policy saying he was unfit to be president. goldman sachs seeing a growth of capital outflows from china as weakens.weekends -- its longest losing streak since december. david cameron defended himself against claims that he is scaremongering to keep britain in the european union. he was speaking on a special question and answer session. >> i'm delighted we're holding this referendum. it is a promise i made, and that i will keep. i will carry out the instruction of the british people. i think the job the prime minister is to warn about potential dangers. rishaad: nigel says he is
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bullish for british business if the brexit happens. >> hardly any of the 5.2 million europe,es trade with but they're bound up with the regulation that comes of being part of a single market that actually what it is is a protectionist customs union. as for as international trade is concerned, we will be free to strike our own trade deals with the rest of the world. there will be more free trade and there is within it. i'm very bullish for british business. rishaad: paris is on the second-highest alert of flood levels in more than 30 years. shuttingm went into its doors today. down, morelines are downpours are forecast to the weekend. their are warnings from central france to the ukraine.
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powered by 2400 journalists at 150 news peers are on the world and you can get more of our top .s by going to top from hong kong. the s&p 500 rose to a seven-month high yesterday ahead of payroll data later today. nejra joins us now with more on the out of market moves. nejra: i wanted to show what happened at the end of yesterday's session for the s&p 500. it closed above 2100 for the first time since april. i tracked that level in red. this is the level the index failed to hold twice this week. it is also a level where two rallies have happened in the past two months. the s&p 500 still 1.2% below the all-time high reach in may of 2015. we are at a seven-month high right now. tracking those gains rising head
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of u.s. jobs data up for the first time in three days. i wanted to show you what is happening over a couple of key trades against the dollar. the bloomberg dollar index but he much unchanged today ahead of jobs data. this week, we've seen a weaker pound. a stronger yen on a fourth day of gains now for the love course, for the rest of this month, we look ahead to the prospect of a fed rate hike and the risk of a brexit. this chart really sums up a lot of this. it is the u.s.-u.k. to year yield spread. the yield premium that the treasuries pay has been surging. it is the widest in 16 years from the 10 year, it is the why this than a decade. it highlights the differing views from investors on the two economies. there give them for a federal rate hike and concern about the risk of brexit. anna: thank you very much, let's talk about the oil markets right
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now, crude prices dipped after a proposal to adopt a new output ceiling. speaking and said to policy of unfettered production. speaking to bloomberg after the meeting, the new secretary-general of opec was optimistic about its recovery. at there is a consensus th market is gradually rebalancing. are thatxpectations from the fourth quarter of this q2 of the next year, we will begin to see some equilibrium in the market. toa: opec speaking bloomberg. now for more, will kennedy is here in the studio with us. ramin is still here as well. will, good morning, they agreed
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on nothing but this meeting at insignificant anyway, did it? tone of the meeting was remarkable he differed from six months ago when he couldn't agree on anything. oil minister,audi he was determined to make his first meeting a success. push to get people on his side. he saw the new secretary-general, the fact they could appoint a secretary-general is a minute haven't managed to do it for years. that shows there getting on better. they are united in their opinion that the market will keep improving post-up the thing to take away is markedly improved sentiment. anna: the bar was set pretty low about what they could agree on. be theit seemed to iranians that were scuffling any plans to get to the production ceiling. this time around, did you send anything different? page. still on the same
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the around the minister was making it very clear that a cap wasn't good for iran, or the other producers for the think other producers agreed. if not, then what is the point of opec? productioncutting prices fall, they have spared capacity to increase production and prices rise. there is a change of language coming from opec in terms of how they see their role in the markets of the police his 40% of the world's supply. wilson the problems in nigeria, but i think those will go away. we forecast $40 by the end of the year. that is significantly below where we are now. anna: what explains this improving atmosphere? is it the saudi's new man wanting to have some success at these meetings? that galvanize people to at least talk nicely to each other? saudi'sat was one, the
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were rattled after the last one. there was a lot of talk that they did not care about opec. they wanted to send a strong signal that they did care, and they will behave responsibly in the eyes of the oil producers. more importantly, it has been a rally in prices. you see the january lows. still not high enough for a lot of producers. olding just above the $50 mark right now. ramin, where do you see prices going? is it similar to this? do you think we're in a bit of a hold here? ramin: we are balancing between supply and demand, next year we are forecasting coming up to 62. generally, strengthening of the oil prices, but nowhere near the $100 we saw previously. that is probably good for the market. the $100 oil price was fairly
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unrealistic. that will be a shakeout for these producers in the u.s. who have seen production cut a massively. is $50 and a cut of magic number for those down tools to come back in the market? ramin: i think it needs to be a little higher. honestly, no one really knows. we don't know how fast it could bring back production. off a lot ofd people and cut back material rigs. that will be a really interesting question for stub i think opec -- question, but i think opec the balance is much better. will kennedy joining us therefore energy and commodities. is a littlewith longer. south africa faces the prospect of being cut to junk today. downgrade replace the credit
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worthiness below investment grade for the first time in 16 years. for more, let's get to johannesburg now. good to have you in the program, set things up for us for today, what is the expectation of market around this reassessment of the credit rating and south in south africa? a global ratings will give us decision later today on the credit rating. creditors are expecting that they won't necessarily downgrade today, but that reproof may be short-lived. hey could downgrade in december. if they do, that was certainly we can the country's currency as well as the bond market. what we are seeing is them saying the expected that a possible downgrade could set the economy up for recession. this without a terminal effect on the state owned companies is
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dead is guaranteed by the government. one saying he thinks the country a strong enough to avoid this downgrade, to dodge this, set than a widely shared view? amo: the finance minister has been at the forefront of meeting with agencies not only s&p global ratings, but also moody's trying to make sure that the are addressedrned by the government. we've also seen the government has tried to meet the private sector and put on a front to them that the country is working to accelerate growth as well as to alleviate some structural impediments that agencies have said are really weakening in growth especially when the country is facing its slowest to growth since the 2009 recession. droughtcerbated by a and lower income commodity prices as well as slowing growth
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in the global community. amo, thank you very joining us there from south africa. ramin, when you look at south africa, and the prospect of a downgrade here, what concerns you about this? need tosomething we resolve vertically -- very quickly? if they get a stay, and they don't weild that, is tahat a good thing? wait: we think they'll until the end of the year. we have external factors over which south africa has no control. china's demand for commodities, we think that will weaken. housing will start to soften to the end of the year. also, we have strengthening dollars, and the weakening of others. those are outside the control of south africa.
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play to thehem downside. it could be a tough time. but those municipal elections will be key. anna: you mentioned weakening currencies, the function bloomberg shows a south african currency down from 21% over the past 12 months. been aly, this has poster child for some of the stresses we have seen around emerging markets. in fact, that is one of the hedges we have for our long equity position in europe is to have a basket of these currencies. because he further downside to those even though we've seen selloff already. anna: further downside for which of the currencies do you think will go further? isin: the singapore dollar one of them. the taiwanese dollar is another one. then we would be long u.s. dollar. if we do see another shock out
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of china, we do have a long equity position in europe which is our positive side. anna: is the focus on the potential shock in china, or a fed shock? amin: either way, we think the basket is em currencies would suffer. whether it is china, or fed, we it could be a good place to be short. anna: where do you stand in terms of global asset allocation? run us through your risk of death list of top headlines? from highkeep away yields, with think that is the end of the cycle. because of the tightening, and also because the fed is talking about raising rates. european credit, we like that. particularly, ig, but also the high-yield market. also because draghi is buying into this program would love a
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spillover effect into high. that gives you good risk-adjusted return. anna: there you go again, getting excited about ecb mayan. -- buy-in. we will switch gears and talk about the u.k., cameron responds. the latest on the brexit debate coming up. ♪
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anna: welcome back, this is "countdown," very early on a friday. looks to be fairly flat of the u.s. equity market when we open up. we have payroll to get through today. that could put us in a holding pattern for a few hours. it is 6:48 here in london. in hong kong we find rishaad
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with the bloomberg business flash. about $62ecuring billion for a deal with monsanto. have gone to several banks to provide help and $5 billion in short-term loans. if the deal goes through it would create the world's biggest pharmaceuticals. or private companies are interested in trouble airbag maker takata. are evaluating bids but that is to let her early stage. it is taken billions of dollars a recall costs for potentially lethal products. a deal with china may be made, they will meet the chancellor angela merkel next week, talks are "complex."
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they have been losing the business to middle eastern rivals. cameron denies he is scaremongering on the dangers of a brexit during a special question-and-answer session, the prime minister would face a decade of uncertainty. >> having a referendum on whether we should stay in this organization which is good for our economy strengthens britain's role in the world. i am not sitting here saying this organization is perfect. been auldn't of renegotiation and got us out of that to set targets for burden reduction, that safeguard of the pound and said we would never have to bailout euro zone countries. anna: temperature david cameron u proponents are
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skeptical. businesses, million hardly any of whom came with the eu, but are bound up with the red tape and regulation that gets from being part of a single market. actually, what it is is a protectionist customs union. we will be free to strike our own trade deals with the rest of the world. there will be more free trade outside of the european union and that is within it. i am very bullish for british business. anna: the latest brexit polls suggest increased to support for the leave camp, but our next camp says we should test guest says we should approach that with caution. great to have you on the program, let's get you -- your thoughts on these polls from various agencies. itm in particular suggests that
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things are moving a little bit in favor of leave, or is that the case? >> there have been a couple of polls suggested moving towards support for leaving the european union. we are cautioning about them and that this is still taken over the bank holiday weekend. of as at the beginning school half term holiday's fault of that means the number of people going away, and particular the tebow politico away -- type of people that go away are typically younger, with young children that tend to be at work. while it can't rule out there is the, --ve towards leave anna: help us bridge the gap, if you could.
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have various things can play with, the latest polling shows that and neck on the latest polls as to what we leave, or remain. we have these probabilities, and this is from the brexit only 21% different,ounds help us bridge the gap in the two. then online poll which over family trend has been showing that and neck, whereas if you call by telephone, you tend to see larger leads for remain. experiment kurds in the end of last year when we ran the same question, the same quotas, the same approach using this. the telephone polling had it
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with a larger remain lead. those numbers there, i think they could be in line with the vetting. that suggests that people are probably taking or paying more attention to the telephone. we connecthat is how the dots. ramin, we've seen incredible amount of volatility in the pound over the most recent polling. not,er it is cautious or markets have reacted to this increasing risk. ramin: that's right, we've seen volatility pick up. implied volatility has shot up about 20%. that is very high, obviously, also what is really sensitive is the skew on cable. this is people buying down that protection on the pound weakening. that is picked up a lot, so markets clearly factoring a high probability of leave. at 40%,he probability
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with the impact would be fairly severe on the economy. this weakening of the town and trade weighted terms could have a significant effect on long-term growth. seeing,at we are implied volatility soaring at its highest since february, 2009. you have to go a long time back spread of treasuries over guild particularly over the short-term we're seeing multi-year highs in that spread as markets try to work out how they position themselves. min: that is fine as long as foreigners are willing to buy your assets. but if we hadn't eu vote and decided to leave, the question is whether we would have a sudden shock. that would be a big problem with the deficit. anna: tell us about the role of on the average voting
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night. explain whether we will of exit polls, what those might look like? it is difficult around things they don't vote on to make those conclusions? : in general elections, you have exit polls to people standing outside marking who they voted for, and that going being computer and calculate. importantly to remember is that those exit polls are based on going to the same polling stations every election. what you're looking at is a particular polling station in a particular place how is that polling station seeing a move from conservative to labor or vice versa? the majory none of broadcasters will be doing their own exit polls. ands challenging to do one we recommend caution of anybody walking around saying the have an exit poll. anna: we will exercise caution, thank you for joining us.
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up next, stocks rise ahead of the u.s. payroll numbers. we will bring you all of the market moves. ♪
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anna: jobs date usa. the payroll in may is expected to match people's number. the case referendum holds the keys to the feds decision. stainless struggles. draghi insists his program is only half done. says a growing risk that capital outflow through china -- as the yuan weakens. ♪ anna: welcome back to "countdown."
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i am anna edwards. you're watching bloomberg tv. what the futures are indicating at the start of the european equity trading day. we get some substantial news at the 7:00 mark. the euro stock a little bit higher up by 5%. the ftse 100 futures will be stronger by 6%. the cac up around .5%. a decent move higher in the asian equity session. .4% asific index up by we head toward the close over in asia. the payrolls day so be mindful of that. 160,000 is the forecast. the verizon effects, what will that do? june?ll that factor into let's throw up the risk radar. ecb, we gotr the
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euro-dollar at 111.49. stuck in a rut, a little move by draghi in the press conference giving just keeping it volatile in the last three months. 144.12.d three weeks until the eu referendum. volatility soaring in sterling. we got brent and they're a day after opec, $50. u.s. stockpile data out of the u.s. helping to pull prices. a little movement in the bond market. we got the ten-year u.k. bond yields at 1.34%. lower in that yield. an interesting story on the bloomberg about the spread at the short end between treasuries and gilt as we gear up for the
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unique -- for the eu referendum. rishaad: -- announcing a half billion dollars. the commodity trader using -- losing its ceo. richard stallman says he intends 63% discount from thursday's close. donald trump saying that hillary clinton should be sent to jail for use of private e-mail server. -- he toldn san jose a rally in san jose that she is guilty. he was -- saidat that no caps off was unfit to be president. the yuan weakens. it spills over into a global selloff. one -- the yuan declining
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the longest stretch. david cameron -- david harris [indiscernible] stork artworks including the one lisa shut its doors today. across a band of central europe and france. use, that's global news, 20 hours in a desk 24 hours a day. -- 24 hours a day. much.thanks very asian equity markets were not too bad. yvonne man is standing by. again in the asian session despite the looming payrolls
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data. yvonne: we are seeing markets and the green. southai stock as well as korean stocks have turned positive. the shanghai stocks up .6%. they are headed for the third weekly gain after having a terrible it will and may. the yen is going to fluctuate. the gains on the upside. geeking out gains at about .5%. -- eking out gains at about .5%. or the best in five months. australia stocks seem to be leading the gains, up about .75%. it has to do with oil producers. investors had tentative footing post ecb. about .1% up.oil
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we have been holding onto that $50 mark throughout much of the morning on brent. it seems like we are holding on to those prices, even after the opec meeting. we have not gained too much. it goes to show how much this might have been priced in. we do see wti around $40 a barrel. $50 for brent. rebalancingil happened faster than expected. they expect global inventories will fall in may. we could be seeing some more sentiment that is positive in terms of some of these oil producers. aussie names here. beach energy up about 1%. gains.some pretty good seeing a lack of
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conviction ahead of these u.s. jobs payroll data coming up later on. the bloomberg analysis saying that brexit may play a bigger thatr, more so if we did surprise on jobs data. anna. anna: yvonne man in hong kong we get the jobs report after the -- here is ramy inocencio with a look ahead. what6 2000 jobs, that is -- 160,000 jobs, that is what bloomberg predicts for today. if true, that would match people's vote when the country added the fewest number of workers in seven months. it would also be about 70,000 jobs lower than 2015's average created each month. there are a few outlier events to note, with the first in the telecom sector. stoppagead a work
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involving about 35,000 workers. those employees were protesting the company's push to make them .ay more for health benefits we see automakers taking a hit after two major earthquakes in japan in april. other data points to look out for, the length of the work week atto match people's number 34.5 hours. verizon workers earned more money. average hourly earnings are expected to climb .2%. the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.9% from the current 5%. that would match its lowest level since february 2008. the fed will likely scrutinize the jobs report. it meets june 14. ramy inocencio, bloomberg news.
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robert kaplan says he is looking for solid growth in the numbers. move.would be tempted to >> we are getting to the point where it will make sense to move some level of accommodation in the near future. what does that mean you go for me, it doesn't mean june or july. i am getting to the point where i would be advocating that we take an additional step. anna: the fed's mandate are not the only thing the central bank is speaking about. -- he says the brexit vote is also a factor. >> with brexit, there is a lot of uncertainty. there is uncertainty about the results. there is uncertainty about what would happen in the case of a leave vote or a remain vote in markets. yes, under those circumstances, it is a factor that i would consider.
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anna: let's bring it to the --versation, didier duret a didier duret. great to have you on the program. perhapsuggesting that the brexit question, the eu referendum hangs over markets. that could be more important as a something that holds the fed back in june. which is more important to the fed? didier: the situation is the prevailing talk. we have to keep in mind that the fed is rather divided on the issue of raising interest rates. i think there is a window of opportunity before entering into the political heat of the campaign in the u.s. is soft oak,eeing
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meaning they want to do it nicely. [indiscernible] the market condition is much or stable when you look at emerging markets, volatility. it is probably a right-wing boat. one step more in the normalization path. anna: this is an international affair like no other. the brexit uncertainty is one thing. we got goldman sachs warning overnight about weakening chinese currency. things that could stop the fed from moving in june. that is not even to mention below expectation and markets for a june hike. the fed is the central bank of the world so it has to take care of the rest. the domestic situation requires an adjustment. they will probably go again when
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it comes to central banks. invest yourdo you money if you see the divergence in central banks eyeing out, how does that influence your asset allocation? didier: it is not the divergence that we have seen last year. it is a form of under control. when we are seeing -- what we saw yesterday was interesting. the ecb is following the plan. less capacity to influence the market sentiment. it is more efficient and really effective when it goes through the policy. the ecb is gaining in the ground to influence. they might lose the spell of influencing the market. -- is the story of last year. anna: -- struggling between the
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fed and ecb. there's been a bloomberg survey that the euro-dollar has seen very little change. the world's most traded currency. movement isprice contained between the 110 and 120. the volatility is low. the dollar yen is up so in the -- it probably the cable is not a disturbing factor. in september, it is important for policymakers of the euro-dollar. anna: we have seen the dollar index bounce a little bit. it shows how it has been bouncing. here at the start of may, changing it quickly. there is the dollar index, he cannot go to live before just to put the fed off. to see it is interesting what you are putting on the
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screen. period,mber, december that was a warning signal. it should be [indiscernible] to activate their own agenda. anna: the dollar is not a worry for the fed. not a reason to hold off, you think? grass, on the top of the then we will see the financial condition index of the world will become ans element of worry for financial markets, for risk aversion. anna: in june, july, do you think they can do either? do they wait? didier: they will be restrained by the brexit issue. [indiscernible] .s an important testimony if you have the opportunity to do something -- anna: didier duret stays with
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us. chicago federal reserve president. , u.k.s that 10 past 10:00 time. mario draghi says the eu stimulus program is only half done. we will continue to do that. we will bring in didier. we will discuss that next. ♪
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anna: good morning. 7:18 in london. the pound against the dollar is at 144 .14. let's go to bloomberg business flash. >> thanks anna. billion that is according to people familiar. bayer has selected bank of
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america, credit suisse, goldman sachs, hsbc and j.p. morgan chase to provide $12.5 billion in short-term loans. it will create the world's biggest supplier of pharma chemicals and -- of farm chemicals and seed. capital and see asia are you buy a wedding this while discussions are at a early-stage. billions of dollars in recall costs -- appointed an external committee to draw up a restructuring plan. but it reportedly met with yahoos management several weeks ago to discuss a possible merger. that is according to the new york post. they spent several hours and discussion but twitter ballot out -- twitter ballot out. lufthansa may make a deal with air china when the ceo visits
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beijing next week. he will meet senior management from china's flagship airline. lufthansa is looking for partners to help stand the loss. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna. anna: yvonne, think you very much. -- thank you very much. the message from mario draghi, here are some of the highlights. >> we continue to expect them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended time. well past the horizon of purchases. looking ahead, futures price for oil, inflation rates are likely to remain very low or negative in the next few months before
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picking up in the second half of 2016. on eight june, we will start making purchases under our corporate sector purchase program. june,er, starting on 22 we will conduct the first operation in our new series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations. the governing council will closely monitor the evolution of the outlook price -- possibility, and wanted to achieve its objective will act by using all of the estimates available within its mandate. it is quite clear however that we will not hesitate to act. us.: didier is still with
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your thoughts on draghi yesterday. i spoke with dominic issa. he said -- i spoke with dominic issa -- ramin nick issa. what did you make of it? didier: the ecb are getting very technical and the way they intervened with the market. they are are about to tap into every segment which is very good. simple -- some form of control on financial conditions. there will be less influence on the overall market. the motion in interest rates is very limited, so this is not something that will animate the markets in the future. i think it is simply going around the way. they are proceeding with the plan. they are very consistent with their policy. months.matter of six
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the ecb is different from the markets. the price of oil will support that. we will see inflation creeping up. anna: are you excited about the corporate bond buying program? had theas well as we magic spell some years ago, we will have this effect on the bond market. also the high-end market will benefit with a ripple effect. this is an area where we are investing. you have to really look for other pasture. anna: i want to ask you about some of the moves we are seeing in currency markets, surrounding the eu referendum. markets are the escape valve for the markets. that is where we are seeing markets reacting. the ftse 5100 in white.
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it is going to be immune. a little volatility in the pound in blue. the volatility of the ftse 100 and white. currency is where we are seeing the activity. didier: it is it -- it is an interesting graph. it is showing how much the market is ordering this days -- these days and don't have a lot of price action on the euro pound. it is the option market that is playing the interest role. it is orderly for a political haven. anna: does this influence what you do with equity allocation into the u.k. when you see the lack of volatility in the ftse 100? you think that is explainable? didier: we have maintained our exposure to the u.k.. -- u.k. we convinced the u.k. will remain within the eu and we
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continue to play a leading role there. there are so much big companies in the u.k. market that by nature they are immune to the political risk. anna: at least for now. the dividend yield is higher on the ftse 100. i've got another chart that goes to the same point. this is once again in the foreign exchange market. this is denmark having to defend its currency tag against the euro -- currency peg against the euro. it has to do it because of the risk around brexit. people piling and saying the krone is a way from the pound. fearing brexit in the euro. do you stay away? what is the best way to play in this brexit story for you? are you looking at eastern european currency? didier: the currency market is
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rather calm. the emerging-market currencies have regained ground so this is something to keep an eye on. in order to invest into this emerging-market or even in china. the fact that we had a little slow down is an opportunity to get back in china. control.tion is in we have the best policy mix in the world in china. we have the fiscal policy, as a strong tailwind it we have monetary policy. this is something -- tailwind. we have monetary policy. this is something -- that is the big story in terms of policy action. more balanced policy mix. it will drive. anna: didier, thank you very much.
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that is it for countdown it on the move is up next. the preachers market -- the futures market a little bit of a bounce. could be stronger in euro. for the u.s. yesterday perhaps. we will leave you with a live shot of london.
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>> welcome to on the move. it is 7:30 in london. we are catching you down to the european open. i am caroline hyde with matt miller in germany. u.s., thestay in the estimate is 150,000. -- 160,000. federal uncertainty. brexit a big concern for several officials at the fed. could the referendum matter more than payroll to a june hike?


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