tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg June 8, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EDT
this is bloomberg markets on bloomberg television. ♪ vonnie: we will take you from new york to london to washington in the next hour. hillary clinton makes history as the first e-mail presented no money for president and she wasted no time turning to the general election backing donald trump. mark: the ecb enters uncharted waters in an effort to stimulate the euro economy. we will get perspective on the central bank by some of the biggest companies. anthe s&p 500 setting all-time record without crossing 1800 yesterday. we will talk on where stocks could run from here. about 30 minutes into the trading day. let's head to the markets desk
where julie hyman have the latest. u.s. markets just keep going up and are very resilient, as we -- as we have frequent talked about. trading higher, where we are right now -- that is the record so we are indeed closing in on that record level. a little further from their record closes but nonetheless moving higher today. look at the s&p 500. since last may, that is the decline we are seeing. we will be seeing the s&p can make up the gap. and reach a new record in the coming days. once again, a commodity led rally, a broad rally. tech are the top performing groups here.
oil inventories coming up in about 30 minutes. last night, the epr reported there is a drawdown of about 3.5 million barrels. we will see of the government numbers match that. the dollar decline in copper futures are coming back after yesterday passes losses. economic data has been supporting. percentage movers, companies that make this stuff, that produce the various commodities. chesapeake energy up by almost 10%. and an oil services firm. i want to mention what is going on with the 10 today as we see $29 10 yearclined, auction is coming up later today and we have almost unprecedented demand for the auction, the highest going back to 1962. mark: we are seeing basic
resources rise within the context of a falling market. the first day and three after the biggest two-day gain in a couple of weeks. one half of one for -- one -- .5% lower. one of the big supermarket operators here. salesquarter same-store the estimates. it is cutting prices permanently to stem a loss to customers and the discounters. mainstream growth is here suffering at the hands of the budget change. they continue to win customers store numbers. shares are up by 2% today. by 5%, falling the most since february. cut its outlook for full-year revenue and adjusted earnings per share. bank of america merrill lynch
says lower north america, small and medium-sized revenue, negatively for demand at this , and shares are also falling, other competitors within this space. startingews, the ecb its corporate bond buying program. sheets the ecb balance going back to 2008, back here in 2014 mario draghi said i want to to the balance sheets that the levels we saw in 2012. you are back to those levels of three point one trillion euros. a small problem. the balance sheet is increasing and gdp is increasing, but inflation, there is not any. we will be digging into
it all in the next two hours. and the has more from the newsroom. obama signaled that the race is over. he called hillary clinton last night to congratulate her on winning the number of delegates needed for the nomination. for clinton, it was a historic night. ms. clinton: thanks to you, we have reached a milestone. [applause] the first time in our nation's history, a woman will be a major party nominee. vonnie: clinton 14 of the six states caucuses, including california, with the largest number of delegates. he is notders says giving up so the math does not look good. several media reports that the senator plans to lay off at least half of his campaigns that today. tomorrow with president obama and donald trump says he will no longer public
in discuss the federal judge a trump university court case. that came after paul ryan: trump 's comments on the judge racist. trump told supporters he will make them proud of the republican party and the movement. in turkey, the target of a bombing. instant turkey. at least four people were killed and 30 wounded. the car bomb destroyed a police vehicle and killed 11 people. david cameron focused on the economy and a tv special on the eu referendum. cameron warned a grexit would mean fewer jobs. he is questioned about the growing influx of refugee in the eu. he agreed immigrants contribute to nationalcameron wealth but sd there are more important things than gdp.
the mona lisa is high and dry and waiting for visitors in paris, it reopened today after the closing to the highest level in three decades. they remain more than 10 feet above normal. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. thanks. let's turn to europe's economy. mario draghi saying the ecb has begun corporate bonds as the plan to stimulate the economy. the balance sheet nearing the high reached in 2012 already. some of their biggest companies, including the index. insightus now for more is the cio. thank you for joining us. more so in distress.
i want your reaction to the beginning of the ecb bond purchases. what is it going to do to overall yield? >> it will have to push them down overall. he does not have a huge impact on our business. focused more on the leftovers of the financial crisis here purchasing distressed assets in southern europe. it has a peripheral impact but not essential impact. one of the themes we really focus on for the business and isact u.s. and europe, it something called bank entrenchment, the notion that as we have increased regulation, it increased capital requirements for scrutiny, they are pulling back with a lot of businesses here to visit has created opportunities for firms like us to extend credit in areas where
we have not in the past. let's talk spain and you like it any like real estate there. what is behind the thinking? what opportunities are there? gohistorically, we sought to where there is some distress and motivated selling by various financial institutions. the problem in the residential real estate market, we have the positioned ourselves there a few years ago and we have seen the energy recovery pick up pace and we positioned ourselves to buy assets from a lot of traditional financial in titian's selling off assets. mark: it was not the only real estate market that saw the during the financial crisis of seven or eight years ago. are there other opportunities elsewhere? >> it is interesting how it played out. the opportunities were initially
centered in the u k and ireland. it shifted south. we estimate there are about $400 billion of non-core real estate that still has to be sold by a variety of financial institutions to the focus has shifted to spain and now italy and even greece. you have to be very cautious and price-sensitive but ultimately, there are fundamentals. how much value is there to buy? a lot of equity players are getting into it. >> in europe, we are on the tail end of the credit cycle. really playing the leftovers from the global financial crisis and we still measure that supply , so there is competition. the interesting thing to us is how the credit cycle has turned in the u.s.
while europe is finishing the credit and default cycle, the u.s. has just entered this one. we have a big credit default 10% defaultis a rate like we saw in 1991, 208. we are starting to move to war that again and pick up in default. fed: when do you think the will next to raise rates? how does it play into your thinking? waiting for the fed to raise rates for quite a time. we would expect it will probably happen later this year and when it does, it will only add to the default supply. debt will be a more difficult proposition. on the other hand, it is a gradual piece. we see the default rate picking up slowly and we see the spread later overtime.
>> defaults and energy? >> it is starting in energy. it is probably going to be more like from 1997 until 2002. we saw a 10% default rate in the see that samee sort of thing. energy is hitting and we have a to all rate close to nine and we .ake it up to -- to 20% mark: i have got to ask you about the upcoming referendum taking place two weeks from tomorrow. are there business opportunities on both sides of the argument? >> right now, we are mostly focus on the negative impact all businesses in the u k. that is how we see it playing out and we like any other businesses are worried about it
down tick in economic activity in the u k. longer-term, i think it will play out mutually on an economic perspective and it might force us to move some of our activities from the u.k. to europe depending on how the regulatory speed plays out. mark: thank you for joining us today. youl ahead, we will get caught up on the stocks moving in the early u.s. session today due to apparel companies like lululemon up on earnings that the history today. ♪
mark: live from london and new york. vonnie: time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. looking for billion-dollar acquisitions. just finished his business and the ceo tells bloomberg the target market maybe health care, which combines technology and data. the ceo of the advertising company wpp, shareholders revolt over his day. investors gave a thumbs down the 3 million dollars compensation package. it is russia poses most direct yet. they unveil the first new full-sized airliner in more than 25 years. they can seat up to 211 passengers.
let's head straight to the markets desk for julie hyman is. julie: are you a big uv? definitely not. julie: i think more people are wearing the clothes even if they are not doing the yoga. profits will be below analysts estimate the first quarter sales rose, especially if you look at them at that basis. the company took a foreign exchange hit but the total -- total sales comparable sales, an estimate of 6.7%. that appears to be what is powering the sales higher today. at the owner of the tommy bahama brand. one of those did very well and one did not. and those up 10%
sales down by 10% and those companies cut the full-year earnings per share forecast. it did raise a revenue forecast but the shares are taking a hit. a buck nakedy make underwear, one of their products. are belowter sales what analysts had been estimating. lastompany became public november and the shares have doubled since then. we can see they are above 24 right now and that is the context behind the decline we're seeing today. we talk about how retail has been suffering, the first week of june was a bit of an exception. at what tracks the traffic north america stores. increases north american retailers.
before that, a lot of year-over-year declines. a little glimmer of light had to do with the memorial holiday. still a negative picture. thanks a lot. andary clinton claims historic win for the democratic presidential nomination. her opponent, bernie sanders, has found to fight on. what it could mean for the showdown with donald trump. ♪
as the democratic presumptive nominee. also have four of the six states including california where she has been for the last week. bernie sanders will not pull out, continuing even with president obama pressuring him to do so? meete president is due to with bernie sanders tomorrow in washington. the president contacted him sunday and gave him a stern dam -- mess -- a stern message about needing to unify. will getexpect this any less strong tomorrow when they meet. the lesson will be, you have carried this progressive wing of the party, you galvanized youth and emphasize issues we really need to grapple with as a party like income inequality and what we will do about that in the country. there comes a time to withdraw and unify behind a candidate.
it is not just the next four years at stake. it could be the next eight or 12 years with the supreme court in play. that is the message i think the president will be making. it seems heller clinton has pivoted to only tough general election and trap here perhaps testing out some ground, throwing out names like elizabeth warren and saying there is a potential for two women on the ticket. maybe it was tongue-in-cheek but issue trying to get voters? >> just given the stance on various issues, i think the chance of a one clinton -- of a elizabeth warren and clinton ticket is not high. we will watch whether she will endorse hillary clinton or whether she is lush bernie or staying on the fence. i think there are other names. minnesota, ir from
think we'll see, but what hillary clinton will be looking for in a running mate is someone who help her when and that will be the calculus she makes, whether or not that will be a woman or someone helping her with the latino vote or someone helping with white and middle-class men. mark: hey what -- a relatively reserved donald trump in his speech. he has come off probably the worst few days of his campaign. will he be able to put these behind him? >> there is no question the last week of his has an tremendously different old for him given the controversy over his comments and whether or not his hispanic heritage would thatt his ruling on a case trump university is involved in. we have seen senior party leader: -- party leaders trip -- crackdown and call his comments racist. trump does not really
want to read office teleprompter, so what will be interesting to watch is that kind of donald trump on the be appealingems to to party leadership and the more establishment wing of the party to get behind him and cut the noise down. will that still be attractive to voters? is that the man that took them this far? it is not here it is at the man who can take them to the next level? i am not so sure. mark: we spoke to tony blair earlier and he pretty much said whatever his policies, he cannot get behind him. listen to this. not clear to me what his policies really are. if they are some of the things being talked about, obviously, you could not agree with them. in actual trade law with china would be devastating to both sides. i cannot believe that is what he will actually want to do.
if you literally say no muslims will come into america, that is not a policy we can go along with. will he have to back track some of the policies? >> is interesting rhetoric from him given some of the extreme things in the u.k. and around there. whether donald trump will backtrack, i do not think that is the issue. i think the policies will continue to be a part of the platform. what will be interesting, what will actually happen if he does get elected? that is what we will be watching. vonnie: thank you. still ahead, we will look at the stock rally. will it continue? ♪
week of declines. julie, what have we got? oil has been rallying above $50, holding above $50, , a 3.5 million barrel drawdown. u.s. also reporting a drawdown largermillion barrels, a drawdown than had been estimated. in particular, the drawdown was larger, 1.4 million barrels. at the same time on the flipside, this can mitigate any gains, we see a build of gasoline and inventories and surprising considering we are getting more into the driving season. in this lets, we are seeing a 8 millionn one point barrels, a drawdown of 500,000 was estimated. a refinery utilization up to 1.1
percent. trying to figure out what they will do. downward.it of a leg still a gain of 1% and oil. off the highs of where it was an hour ago. recent days holding above $50 per barrel. it tends to take a half hour or so for trade to stabilize. exactly. a lot of data. that is good to know. more from our newsroom in new york, m a? -- emma? emma: at least 15 people were killed and many others were wounded.
that is according to syrian opposition activist. syria classic largest city has seen an uptick in balance in the last two days. cyprus has been divided on line since 1970 41 turkey invaded the island with greece. thes review today between president and turkish leader. wall street banker getting closer to winning the presidential election with more than 99% of the votes counted. he has a .3% lead. his father let the country for 10 years and is now in prison for corruption. thousands of people lined up in louisville earlier today. a memorial service for boxing legend muhammad ali. set to closed was when all 15,000 tickets were claimed or the memorial will take lace in his hometown. bill clinton will deliver the
eulogy and the white house senior adviser will read a statement from president obama. dayal news 24 hours a powered by more than 150 news bureaus around the world. the dow and s&p flirting with all-time highs. it is above it once again today. the next guest thanks both industries have more room to run. jeremy siegel has been calling for 19,000 by the end of the year and he joins us now. professor, i presume you're still standing by your call despite recent federal reserve? >> i am however, i have to tell you i was disturbed by last friday's report. it will not change my bullish estimate, but i would like to see the june report do a lot better than that.
i'm glad janet yellen took off a rate increase in june here and i think that is appropriate. if we get a bounce back, we can still have an increase in july here that is not off the table. vonnie: many say dividend stocks are richly valued at this point. >> dividend yield on the s&p 500 is still over 2% and we see the 10 year treasury at 1.7, and even if the fed raises interest rates, what will people get, the banks, maybe a quarter percent and maybe by the end of the year, one half of 1%. there is no yield competition, i think. inis my belief that we are the early innings of a long-term gain where people are going to be thinking of getting income
from stocks and dividend, instead of lines and cds. shift is continuing. i am certainly not saying that certain dividends paying stocks are cheap. yield is still well in access of what you could get in bonds and bank accounts. mark: professor, where are the earnings? we have got a lovely chart from richard bernstein, the ceo of richard bernstein advisers. for theooked at data s&p 500 and has looked at the since 1948.ings the index average a 13% gain in allnext 12 months and rose but three times in 18 occurrences. chart if you believe that story. do you believe that story?
we about to enter the earnings driven rally in u.s. stocks? certainly, we had one of the worst earnings performance last year, 2015. down 10, 11% from the previous year in a non-recession period, it almost stands out in history. we need the rebound this year to support stock rices where they are. i think 18 times earnings is what we are now looking at. though that is slightly above the historical average, it is still very cheap compared to interest-rate and even interest that will be rising over the next couple of years, as we know fed indications. equitynot price independently of what is happening in the fixed income market. i am bullish, and i do not agree with the bears that say hey, the long-term ratio is 1516 and we
are at 18 now and we will go down 10%. i think that is ignoring some very shifted fundamentals that we see in the markets. how do you view what is happening in europe versus the u.s.? 17% below the record high from aboutlast year, talking the stoxx 600. the s&p 500 is barely 1% below its record high. performancearity in ? why haven't we had a boost from qe? >> has been somewhat of a boost from qe. honestly, i think european equities for the next 3-5 years are more promising than u.s. equities. areprice-earnings ratio
1415. ares an almost 20% below and what we see in the united states. i think that is because there is still fear of risk. will there be another greek crisis, another spanish crisis? i think that is holding those valuations at very reasonable levels. europe, i actually think looks more promising for a return in the u.s. going forward and i think mario draghi in he wants toi think keep the euro between a dollar and one dollar 10. he is not happy with one dollar .5 -- $1.15. he might push it down to that level and that would be good for u.s. stocks. are -- the index, we what a lot of people are looking at for a correction.
what makes you discount that? >> yes, i have written an article that appeared in a current issue of a journal, called a new look. one -- one of the things the ratio is the change in accounting techniques that occurred over the last two decades, market to market accounting that has brought earnings way down in recessions. he takes a 10 year average. we have still got great recession earnings in there that went almost to zero and that is what is biasing upward the ratio. if you make an normalization for that, it is nowhere near as scary as it looks there. earnings procedures, market to market earnings have caused a distortion in the last couple of decades in that ratio. bearish at all as
erik: thank you. good to see you again. .e are here about financials let's talk about where we are from the investment perspective. what do you see? journey, a lot of things at lay right now. everything from technology innovation, a lot of regulation change. hast years ago and it still a lasting effect. we are seeing the use of data. erik: is more electronic a good thing? >> i think it is a necessity.
,he way markets are trading given liquidity and the fragmentation, it is obviously necessary to connect buyers and sellers. to bringe model -- yone together, erik: fragmentation does not, the good thing. >> we have multiple exchanges and multiple participants. what we are always trying to do is aggregate that activity, whether that will be a platform that aggregates it. it is just the nature of different participants. fragmented onbeen different buyers in different sellers.
is not up to me. i think what we're seeing is to, liquidity is migrating if you really see what -- how , thereare trading well are venues where buyers and sellers can come together, i think that is a glimpse of the future where you see more oil to oil venues. buyers and sellers can come together, the products are easier to trade and can be traded electronically. we can have transparency both pre-and post. those are a sign of the future and where we're going. erik: talking about fragmentation and liquidity, how you compare the state of the bond market against the state of equity today? >> for the bond market, i hope they are looking at the equity market. in some ways, that was the christmas ghost of the future. that is where we are going.
it will not go there 100%. we will end up in more of a hybrid model that is part principal and part agency. without question, there are elements of the market being adopted all the time. you can see that. why is it happening so slowly? it is generally only in very small frames. >> the bond market is not a homogenous market. one common stock. the bond market, the same company can have a myriad. that is why i say it will be a high market that will never go fully to an equity structure. erik: two years ago, the bond market was broken. how do you describe it today? today, we aree clearly in a challenged environment but if you dissect it, it is more the principal market that has really challenged the agency market,
the one that is emerging. what is really the issue is more of a plumbing issue. it is really how do we bring buyers and sellers together. the market is absolutely adapting -- there is no question. participants are adapting at a different pace but you see real progress. erik: just this morning, some other prominent participants in the bond market, including vanguard and limit sales, came out with a mission statement looking for more transparency and looking for equal access to trading opportunities for all market opportunities. blackrock did not sign that, how come? >> we have been talking about this for a long time. it is not a new dialogue for the market. some of the comments i just said a moment ago are very similar to the characteristics that we heard. erik: why alignments on the buy side?
so, is ap 20,000 or serious exercise or we are not a homogenous group either. you have representing hedge funds, different industries association's. we are not a homogenous group. degree is there still tension between the cell and by sides? topic people a love to talk about and it makes great headlines. the buy side sell side is part of the same financial system. we need each other and we think of the sell side as our most critical partners. you will have to help me with that. goldman sachs running an agency business at the same time? richie: i thought of them as a liquidity source.
erik: do you bemoan the loss of liquidity? richie: in a sense yes. cost tohat it would trade something. today, it is a very different world. we are not going back so we do not lose a lot of sleep about it. we move forward. erik: what do you want to see regulators do more or less of? folks say how can we do more regulation? the bond market, we talk about the bank loan market, why did it take so long to settle, i would love to see the regulators tighten up that settlement time. i think we learned a lot back in august, august 24, to be precise. there are some imperfections in the equity market structure and we would like to see the regulators tighten up a few things, whether it is the harmonization across
equities and futures, down rules, erroneous trade rules. you talk about fragmentation. they are continuing a new venue as an exchange application out there. is that good or bad? i do not want to talk about the particular application but i have a philosophical question, which is, we can count, but there is some three dozen different venues, whether it is exchanges or, you know, i the basic concept of how does another venue help? we need to bring the pendulum back a little bit, little more simplification and transparency, less complexity. in particular but a broader issue first. erik: thank you for spending time with me, richard prager. back to you. vonnie: very fascinating.
appreciate it. erik schatzker at the blackrock global tech conference with the head of trading, richie prager. mark: airbus group is close to selling off its remaining holding in an aircraft that makes military jets. this is according to people familiar. a sale could come as soon as this week. no final decisions are being made. airbus holds 24%. you are watching bloomberg markets. ♪
>> there are so many great options. the virgin islands to the dominican republic are the latter is where i found my favorite one. resort and it has got super sleek, modern japanese ocean views and private pools. it is a dream. the dominican republic some people can be critical of it when it comes to holiday. deals.lusive >> absolutely. the dominican republic has not had the best reputation, better known for his all-inclusive mega-resorts. it is really kind of changing the tide for the island and making it quite an upscale getaway. is a golfe seeing course on nature reserve, really quite special. is the zika virus
holding back u.s. tourists from discovering this is little bit? yes, a little bit. each should assess the risk and how comfortable they are. i recommend looking at the website and talking to your doctor if you are concerned. the good news is there have not been any confirmed contracted cases of the virus. it plays like to -- laguna beach in california is a safe that. vonnie: is that the only domestic one? it was not. there is a lovely one in asbury park of all places. .hat was exciting and in miami beach, one of my favorites, where i grew up, always happy to see that. designer, you might recognize from his films.
he has done a couple of projects here and there. and she also played a role. it is really phenomenal. the design is over the top and quite incredible. read vicki'story at bloomberg pursuits. go on the bloomberg market. mark: coming up on european close, more on the ecb dipping into the corporate bond markets and the central bank entering into new territory. what it means for investors. plus, a deal struck with google. the company now starting discussions with uber. more on that story. check out what is happening to european markets. the european close is next. ♪
in europe today. you are watching the european close on bloomberg markets. we are going to take you from new york to london to milan in the next hour. u.s. stocks moving higher in european shares pulling back for the first time in three sessions. can investors shake off local growth concerns? isnie: the chrysler ceo ushering the automaker into the future and looking for new tech deals, but can he secure a partnership with uber? mark: highlights from bloomberg's exclusive interview with the former prime minister tony blair on the brexit and european politics. minutes into 90 the trading day. let'ad