tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg June 10, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EDT
vonnie: we will take you from new york to london to washington in the next hour. with 30 minutes into the trading day in new york, u.s. and european stocks are following -- falling. bond yields fall to records and investors seek safe havens. drop morees lufthansa than 5% after the surprise departure of the cfo opens unwelcome hole in their top management at a time when it's strategy is on certain -- uncertain. vonnie: what is next for donald trump and hillary clinton? clinton's meeting with elizabeth more. mitch mcconnell says trump "does not know a lot about the
issues." about 30 minutes into the trading day in the u.s. let's into the markets desk. julie: the preliminary reading on consumer confidence for june coming it at 94.3, a slight decline from 94.7 in may. it is above the slight average economics -- economist estimates. it was rated stronger than at any time since 2007. that is the fascinating figure from this. tothe same time households not see the economy growing as fast as they did last year. that is what accounts for a little bit of slowing in consumer sentiment. the broader economy appears to be what is weighing on investors minds this morning. not just here in the united states but around the globe we have seen a selloff as investors are trying to gauge the ability of central banks to stay off
some kind of global economic downturn. also people not necessarily wanting to be long in the weekend ahead of the week for the federal reserve that the bank of japan are meeting, and then ahead of the brexit vote. the nasdaq down by 1%. what we saw overnight is that u.s. stocks in futures began to selloff and then they accelerated in terms of that downturn as we get closer to the opening bell. look at the imap on the bloomberg. we have a broad-based selloff today. one tiny subsegment of consumer staples in the green but otherwise everything here is red. financials doing the worst once again followed by tech and consumer discretionary and industrials. they are the most vulnerable to any kind of economic downturn. let's look at the banks. they are suffering for the second straight day. bank of america, citigroup, wells fargo. as we see record low bond yields around the globe, not good news
for the banks. and we want to take a quick look at the trucking industry. just one example of the weakness we're seeing in transportation and industrials which up and down the last couple of days. jb hunt, ryder all taking a hit this morning. mark: you described it perfectly. the europe stock 600 is down by 2.2%, the biggest decline since february. the longest losing stress for a month. the biggest daily decline since february. that tells you everything you need to know a week ahead of the fed, and we are listen to be's away from the upcoming referendum. cost in very much the buzzword today. every industry group is down on the stoxx 600 today. among the big gainers, there are not too gainers, airbus is selling his remaining state in
-- what it is doing is essentially disposing of assets to focus on its core businesses. dassault will buy back shares through its buyback program. dassault aviation shares up by 1.1%. lufthansa ishares are following. 5% lower. the cfo will step down effectively august 31. us apprised up archer. you have to be blunt and say that from europe's third-biggest airline. a time when its strategy is in a state of flux. the board will choose a successor shortly. closely --old the don't miss our big interview with the chairman of the management board at lufthansa. that literally is in 40 minutes time. what a day to come on bloomberg. he's also in chart to the discount euro wing.
all the money essentially is flooding today away from risky into theke equities safe haven area of government bonds. this is a one-year chart for the german 10 year. both bond yields a fallen to record lows today. that is the figure you want to look at. .01 is a yielded germany. it is never been below zero. will we go below zero today? that is the big question. vonnie: give your money to the german government for 10 years. how about that. taylor rates has more from our newsroom. taylor: senior u.s. defense officials said the white house is approved plans to expand air strikes against the taliban when necessary. it was made in recent days off of that are support and assisting afghan forces when needed and critical operations. the 9000 u.s. troops in afghanistan will not be involved
in direct combat. teen sunday for the missing -- teams missing -- searching for the missing -- the debrisd from would be the first part of the airplane found east of the main search zone in the southern indian ocean. the airplane disappeared more than two years ago. singapore is preparing to prosecute indonesian companies responsible for polluting its air. sixapore has ordered suppliers to a paper producer to describe what they are doing to prevent fires on their land. those fire separatists hazardous ash clouds last year. in politics, hillary clinton will make the case against donald trump on women's issues as the presumptive democratic nominee. the washington post reports she will make the case for women and
trump's presidency -- presidency is "a risk we just can't take." ae u.s. house has passed bipartisan bill aimed at resolving puerto rico's debt crisis. the legislation would create an oversight board to help restructure the u.s. territory's $70 billion debt load. it has to be passed by the senate. puerto rico faces a july 1 deadline for $2 billion debt payments. the having government says it doesn't have the money. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world.. i'm taylor riggs. vonnie: thank you. a central bank meeting is next week. they will share the spotlight with the bank of japan and the bank of england. havean see that traders priced the june increase. less than one in
five that in december we will get past 50%. our next guest says stick a fork in the fed, they are done. he is the chief economist of prestige economics. he joins us from austin, texas. that's a bold statement to make a day were we have seen consumer sentiment come down a bit but not fight -- by a phenomenal amount. >> that's why i begin making that statement back in march, right after janet yellen gave that uncertainty speech to the new york economics club. it has been my view for a number of months that they are done for the year. i have been expecting u.s. recession likely by the end of this year in the next year. that's what my booking that at the end of february. i think we are sliding with the u.s. economy. the fed and best will be nothing. vonnie: the fed itself does not know what is going to do. how can you be convinced we are heading to recession? >> you don't have to look too
far for the data. i have a given presentations. european central bank, bank of england, and around the united states i have been giving presentations to different groups. "recessions are everywhere." if you look at industrial data, it's been collected since 1919. we have 97 years of data. previously the most number of year-over-year negative growth and consecutive months was four. there was never a case for you had four months of negative year-over-year industrial production for remark and a recession. if we are not in a recession, is the first time in history by a very wide margin in that case. if you look at other data, trucking, rail, durable goods. seeing theare manufacturing index actually improve. we're up to 51.3 in the latest
aninning. >> we've had a couple of months about 50, but if you look earlier it was down for three consecutive months. the last time that happened we were in a recession. even though right now we are a little bit of a 50 with the main into factoring -- manufacturing index, it has led significantly. if you look, we are indeed likely in an industrial recession. i see other proprietary data and material handling. if you look at material handling data, there has been a slowing and contraction there. if you look at retail sales excluding auto, it's the linchpin for economic growth right now, but if you look at retail a year-over-year rates were lower than 2001. we have recessionary levels of growth in retail. autos will slow significantly this year as there is pressure to reduce the subprime loans.
manufacturers are three times the size of normal release fleets. they will be selling more used cars. the we don't cap is for gp, we count -- gdp, we count new cars. mark: some of the world's biggest economies are facing recession. the toolkits are looking little sparse. how are they going to fight the next recession? >> it's going to be very, very tough. i think the fed right now should be considered quantitative easing, but they really can't because of where you see the inflation level. cpi at 2.1%, down from 2.3%. it's an inflation level where they can't really do anything. whene in a tough pickle you look at the world bank lowering their global growth forecasts. the imf had a number of this in the -- of disconcerting things
to say back in april. they lower their growth forecasts. they asked if we were in a crisis right now? someone said we are not technically in a crisis, we are on alert for a crisis. monetary policy is very tough. it will be a very tough next cycle going forward. mark: the markets might just tell us that, along with central banks like the bank of japan and ecb which is moving up the risk curve. when the equity markets start to reflect this recession? >> they already are. if you look at the nasdaq -- let's ignore the dow. cycles we seete that often times the doubt and get a pop. those companies a better cast positions, better access to credit. if we look at the nasdaq, there
has been an unbroken downward trend of consistently lower highs since last july when the nasdaq peaked. we have not broken the downward sloping trend. even though we are above the 120 day moving average, we are below the ceiling. we have not crossed it. that shows us if you have been in a downward slope in 11 years and the nasdaq, -- 11 months in the nasdaq, that means something. that is not a good trend. vonnie: you keep your eye on oil markets in your year to people's mouths in terms of opec. oil is going to $70 but we are back below $50. where do you see oil? >> i was that opec last year. i think the press between now and the end of the year is the $40-$60 range. quite a bit a be higher to get more production out of the u.s.. the texas railroad commission
data came out. even though oil prices when a between april and may, the number of new permits for drilling in oil and gas went down from april to may in texas. i'm concerned you will not get the supplies out of the u.s. unless the price is a lot higher. $60 or more before you see a big influx because of the higher cost of capital. countries have to go now to pe instead of the credit markets are the banks to get money. if you look at international supplies, they will come online. opec will keep pumping and that will keep us in the $40-$60 range. vonnie: thank you. mark: coming up, former ecb president adds his voice to a host of warnings over brexit. hear his comments next. ♪
♪ mark: i mark barton. vonnie: you are watching "bloomberg markets." it's time for the latest bloomberg business flash. dupont dow chemicals will hold separate shareholder meetings next month to vote on their merger. both will be held july 20. dupont's meeting will take place at its wilmington, delaware headquarters. dow's will be units michigan offices. they plan to split into three separate public we traded companies. jetblue airways is reducing its planned growth of the year. between a percent and 9.5%. the carrier cited the current feeling revenue environment for
the change in plans. bp sold off its year -- norwegian oil fields. the buyer is a government controlled by billionaire. 30% stakeill hold a in the oil fields. businessour bloomberg flash. interview, earlier former central bank president said the u.k. would damage its economy if it does the leave the european union and less than two weeks, calling it "a catastrophe for the u.k." he spoke about central-bank policy around the world, saying monetary policy can't be the only game in town. they willvery much not be obliged to do more taking into consideration that they are counting on government.
particularly in europe, the lang which of the ecb is very strong, as it should be. this is absolutely of the essence. my working assumption is that reform will be progressively implemented. that the appropriate correction would be done. they are all at stake. and then the central bank could at least -- mark: yet it all the global central banks have tough jobs. mosty might be in the difficult situation right now because of the upcoming notes about the membership of the eu. vonnie: still ahead, we dive into the 3 billion drawl or -- $3 trillion etf market. they are hauling in the cash. ♪
♪ mark: you are watching "bloomberg markets." vonnie: welcome back. let's get straight to julie. she is standing by for the deep dive into the etf market. that that against the stock market are hauling in cash this year as leveraged active trading despite looming fcc rules -- sec rules. here is eric. if you have a bloomberg terminal you will find a host etf information. some of it is inverse etfs. we were talking during the break. --y captured about two p 2% of the overall etf market.
now using them for this stock rally to effectively short the market? eric: they are used either to bet against something for hedge. their portfolio tools are also betting mechanisms. this year we see some big dramatic. $6.2 billion and it in verse and leveraged etf's which is unusual. and the money is coming out of which meansfs, people are betting on a stock market collapse. what is interesting to me following the past couple of thes is that it's always inverse treasury etf. people were buying this like crazy to hedge on rising rates or that on rising rates. those fears have subsided and what is taken over is a fear of a stock market collapse. we are seeing this other data that is telling us investors are very concerned. it is not just a month. these are consistent. inverse etfs are taking in way more.
they doubled their size this year. vonnie: a couple of examples -- julie: an ultrashort s&p 500 pro share. talk about the flows they have seen and what each does. erc: sh is one time short the market and the others two times short the market. they both taken about $1.5 billion, basically doubling their size to $3 billion. tbt is now third. these are the two biggest leverage and inverse products out there. that is essentially what they do. julie: and people who are buying these must be ready to be patient. they are either daytrading in and out, but if they have taken and one point $5 billion that applies it is a longer-term hedge. and both are down this year because the s&p 500 is up this year. >> typically the more leverage it has, the more turnover you will see.
sh will have less volatility dragged and less corrosion on their returns because is it is only one time. let me just take us in my portfolio to be safe. in a way these products show these returns are bit like a vix fear gauge. sds turns over more every day. julie: and you wanted to talk about a three-time etf on gold miners. as you mentioned, this is a time when the sec is looking at the idea of a leveraged etf? >> i bring up not get because if you look at the holdings, only 11% is accounted for. 85% must be retail or small investors. i think that is why the sec is concerned. even though leverage an inverse etf's make up 10% of the trading volume and turnover 16% today versus non-leverage etf's was turnover about 3% a day. even if there are daytrader
investors using them, they are using them criqui by trading them. you don't want to buy and hold these. in addition, it could chase people in the leverage etn's which would not be subject to the sec rules and they are riskier. there can be unintended consequences we cannot see a big sec clamps down. julie: got to leave it there. back to you. vonnie: julie, thanks. still ahead, who will hillary clinton tickets are running mate? could it be an all women ticket? we are asking that question. ♪ get ready for the rio olympic games
i am vonnie quinn. mark: check out how european equities have fared. we have the biggest decline since february 11. for those with a good summary, february 11 was when the stoxx 600 well to its lowest level since 2.5 years. it has rebounded, but it is significant that it has fallen to its lowest level since february as we approach the fed meeting next week, the boj, and -- u.k. referendum on eu and eu membership in just under two weeks. the latest from our newsroom. taylor: turkey's president, who flew to the u.s. to attend the dinner of muhammad ali, is returning home. he was sad funeral organizers rejected his request to lay a religious piece of cloth on
coffin. ali's an earthquake and the palm springs area. the u.s. geological earthquakes are the five point two earthquake was 20 miles south of rancho mirage and was strong enough to wake people up. brexittudy said the would rock european stocks. risk modeling firms found european equities lose 1/4 of their value is the u.k. votes to leave the european union. british stocks have been the best performers, but they are the most at risk. the vote counting is over and the closest election in peru's history. the former finance minister had little more than 50% of the vote, or 2/10 of a percent more. the peruvian election office will make the vote of official in the next few days. hockey legend cordy howell has
died. played46 to 1980, he 26-seasons in the nhl and six seasons in the national hockey association. the first seasons were spent with the detroit red wings. he is considered one of the greatest hockey players of all time. he was 88 years old. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists, and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. democratic sources tell bloomberg news that hillary clinton is meeting with elizabeth warren this morning. comes after elizabeth warren endorsed the democratic nominee yesterday. in an interview, clinton said she would consult with elizabeth warren on wall street regulation, and look forward to having her advice -- fueling speculation of a possible vice
presidential pick. trump says he wished linton would pick war in, calling her one of the least productive u.s. senators. is elizabeth warren a potential pick for hillary, margaret? of a handful of potential picks is a serious pick. hillary clinton has a little bit of time to get this right. there are reasons why it would be complicated. democratic control of the senate, the personal relationship between hillary clinton and elizabeth warren -- whether it is compatible, and whether the assessment is made that of americans either feel that she would be ready to step role and if americans would vote for a ticket with 2 women on it. in terms of energizing the debate, bernie sanders supporters who are on the fence,
it might go a long way in that direction if they were to pursue it seriously. vonnie: when you say democratic control of the senate, you mean a foreign gave up her seat, they would be free to elect to someone of their choice? margaret: democrats feel with the donald trump on the ticket, they would have a good chance of taking back control of the upper chamber. every number you go down by, makes it more difficult. there are three tracks of consideration right now. clinton has made clear that she believes elizabeth warren would be qualified, in theory, to be vice president. elizabeth warren has said that she thinks she would be ready. it helps both of them to say that. clinton wants closing the door and support. warren wants to shape the direction of the democratic party. you can understand why they are fueling the speculation in terms
of energizing the base and leveraging it to help both women. donald is responding to the elizabeth warren in doors lead in the only way in which he is able -- endorsement and the only way in which he is able, colorful language. i found interesting when he ooked hillaryr fromnight he got a reproof hillary clinton which went viral? margaret: i believe it is her leading tweet ever. everyone is keeping track of what hillary clinton says and how excited people are about it. for a candidate that had trouble in the early months getting people excited about her campaign, all of a sudden her twitter posts are provocative. he is showing republicans he is serious about going after any kind of a clinton ticket and that should make him the party's
standardbearer. already a known quantity of americans that aggressively do not like hillary clinton. donald trump has to reach the feelings that have mixed feelings. the danger of pursuing a thatete bashing tactic is at some point he needs to go on the proactive and positive front to win people over. mark: it could prove the point she is ready to win. "delete your account" to donald trump. is this proof that she can win ugly? she is signaling that she is prepared, within boundaries, to go on the attack and more negative. idearically, there is the that she is the strongest when she is on the defensive. that is a counter opinion
the people who are most likely to win presidential campaigns have tended to be the people that get americans excited and feeling positive about the future -- safe, strong, and secure. that thegoing negative has a cost for both. if he goes negative, she has to respond. she is practicing. vonnie: mitch mcconnell talking about donald trump said "our nominee will not redefine what being a republican is. i think the platform will remain largely the same." how does this go forward? does drop come into -- does trump come into line? margaret: it is interesting how mitch mcconnell and paul ryan have positioned themselves. enthusiasticallyu endorsing trump. he believes the center to the right of the party has the ability to control trump if he
is president. there are continuing discussion over, is there any chance the republican establishment will before the convention. it is difficult to see that scenario. one thing leaders in the house and senate have been doing is to give themselves maneuvering room in case they have to react quickly before july. mark: coming up on bloomberg "markets", 3:38 in london. a interview with the chief executive of eurowings as its parent company struggles with an ongoing labor conflict. ♪
vonnie: in new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: we are four or five minutes away from the end of the week session. what a selloff. we are seeing the biggest decline in the stoxx 600 since february 11. february 11 was when the european ranch mark fell to its lowest level in 2.5 years. its lowestk fell to level in 2.5 years. this is the longest losing streak in a month -- in a week. the federal reserve meeting, the bank of japan meeting, and we are less than two weeks away from the upcoming referendum on eu membership. all of the industry groups are falling. --is a broad-based shar selloff. resources on a weekly basis, only oil companies are rising. check out what is happening on
the bond markets. something significant could soon be about to happen in the german bond market with the yield on the 10-year very close to reaching 0.00%. earlier, it reached 0.01%. yields in the german bond market a 10 year.e up to the u.k. 10-year yield is also at a record low. very much a flight to safety taking place. let's get back to the u.s. bloomberg. abigail doolittle has the latest from the nasdaq in midtown, manhattan. abigail: we're looking at a selloff. the nasdaq selling more than the dow and s&p largely due to the overweighting of technology and exposure to biotech. apple, netflix, trading down. this comes after days of
speculation as to whether the s&p and dow could carve out new record highs. we did report yesterday that the nasdaq is more than 5% from its record high and has not crept above the psychologically important level of 5000. a big divergence. the nasdaq is a laggard, suggesting this year could he about lots of volatility. the question for the nasdaq, macro standpoint is if the index could, in fact, claim the 5000 level for good to trade to the record highs. today, it will be interesting to see if that can happen. mark: what do technical experts say about the likelihood of reclaiming this 5000 level? abigail: we were lucky enough that katie stockton yesterday shared her thoughts. she shared a chart. stockton that katie shared is a long-term, 20-your monthly chart that basically
shows a big level of resistance. katie stockton is saying 5000, she does not see that as real resistance, more of a psychological level. that last year's test of the highs,ghs with the 2015 the failure of that test is the real resistance. 51 .33. it is less about the 5000 level and more about record highs. today, he doesn't seem so likely, but, of course, anything can happen. mark: anything can happen. thank you. shares are falling down 5% after the surprised if parker of the cfo, leaving a hole in the top management at a tenuous time for the company. labor conflicts are unresolved.
joining us for an exclusive farnadt, as karl member of the lufthansa executive board. the board member who is in charge of eurowings. we will come to eurowings in a second. it would be were mess of me to not start with the news that is share, the lufthansa price. the unexpected departure of the cfo, how much of a below is her departure? karl: i personally have been working closely together with her. regret that she is leaving. we have a history that we have been able to find suitable replacements in a short time. this is what the advisory board is dealing with. i'm confident that in a short time we can find the right replacement. a long timeve taken
before finding replacements for top executives. it took five months for the be named.o to is there a fear that investors are worried that you have not filled the role and you might take time? the incumbent ceo was still in charge prior to his departure, we have been able to fill the gap. the same happen in this case. cfo's of lufthansa have a -- if you look at the former ceos, they also went and we have been able to replace them in a short time. mark: is there a fear that this comes at a time when your strategy is in a state of flux? this is the last thing that deutsche lufthansa needs right now. well our strategy is very
in place. we are executing decisions that we took earlier, so we feel like we are in good shape. i would strategy and restructuring program, regardless of the personal sendoff of the board. vonnie: you're also the ceo of eurowings, how do you plan to reassure shareholders that you will fend off competition? eurowings is a success story. the routesded over between germany and europe from the lufthansa brand to germanwings we were running a three digit loss. we have converted that into operating cost. we are now in phase two with eurowings as a new brand. we have been able to turn around the business. we have been standing our ground
for the most important german markets. we see that germany, due to our proactive strategy, sees much lower penetration of local sky air at 24% than other european markets. flight and aviation is notoriously volatile. how are you planning for the next shock? oil price, or something like terrorism? the number one for terrorism, the only answer that i can have -- you have to build a structure that can be flexibly adjusted. capacity can be adjusted. for oil price shocks, i can say policy is tohansa mitigate fluctuations in the oil market, and that has proven useful and successful a strategy in the last year. 75% 18 months ahead. that gives us a big level of
confidence. whatever could happen could be mitigated. partneru have the arc model. you say you are speaking with 10 carriers who have shown an interest. can you elaborate further? could you tell us who some of the carriers are? cannot think that i recall that i said we are talking to 10 carriers. i said that we are taking a close and structured look into the market with a 360 approach. we have not made any decisions yet. you also said that eurowings is one of the part of the mission. that this could be a pool for the lufthansa group. we are setting up the prerequisites to be able to do that. no concrete step at this point in time. mark: thank you for joining us. karl ulrich garnadt of the executive board of deutsche
vonnie: we are looking at live shots of boxer muhammad ali's funeral procession in louisville, kentucky. it is a 19-mile procession through many of the places that ali spent his youth. muhammad ali and his funeral procession today. is the firsti 100 car the automaker brought stateside. if you can get your hands on one, by. -- buy it.
why such a love for this car? hannah: this is the first car u.s..udi brought to the it is probably the only one that you will see of its kind when you visit with your local enthusiast, car club events, rallies. you will probably be the only one who has it if you have one. the one million cars that hagerty insurance ensures only .ix of them are audi 100s mark: why are there so few of them? they were very practical and used when they first came in the 1970's. they were used up. they were not expensive at the time, so people did not take the time or resources to restore them. when they were used, they were tossed out. the estimated guess is that
there are 1000 on the road in the u.s. vonnie: we are news that intel has gotten its first chip order from apple and its first major win from qualcomm. intel has erased all of its gains and is back to flat. markets are lower. qualcomm is down 1% on the day. hannah, what would we expect to pay for an audi 100. hannah: you can find some for $4000, a very good one for $8,000. if you find one between $4000 $8,000, it is worth it. you can find them in europe for five figures or six figures, but in the u.s., they are very affordable. vonnie: how much would you expect its value to go up? hannah: there is no guarantee. you will not make a million
dollars. it is not a blue-chip investment . it will hold its value and notly gain, but you will become rich. the value is that it is so unique and iconic. you will be very special if you have this car. vonnie: hannah elliott, the best stories. bloomberg pursuits. check your bloomberg. rates, market decline. apple has put in an order with intel for chips, the first major mobile win for intel. win.is a big they will power iphones on the at&t network. apple is diversifying its supplier base by choosing intel away from qualcomm. qualcomm shares are down, though the entire market is down. that might be a reaction to this, or just general movement. mark: it is down here as well.
-- russia's bank stopped short of signaling a new easing cycle. and the opening game of the euro 2016 tournament. france preparing for 2.5 million spectators. could workers strikes impact this big event? we will take you to paris with the latest. european stocks falling for 30 consecutive day. section.at our mov only 12 stocks are rising. 587 are falling. the biggest decline since february 11. the close is next. ♪
close" on bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: we will take you from new paris.o london, to this is what we are watching. pushing to record low yields on global growth concerns because the fed and the boj are gearing up to meet next week. diving into the brexit debate, warning it would be a catastrophe of britain leaves the european union. we are turning to the world of sports as euro 2016 kicks off in paris. mark: a check where european equities are trading, 30 minutes away from the end of the friday session.