tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg June 14, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
ringing] ell fresh concerns in the german bonds below zero or the first time. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" continue toestors consider the possibility of u.k. may leave the european union. recent declines have dragged things back near record levels. joe: and the proposed ban on muslim immigration would make the u.s. less safe. scarlet: we hear from former president bill clinton in an exclusive bloomberg interview. first, let's take a look at how the markets are faring now. u.s. stocks closing lower ahead of the fomc tomorrow. we have declined for a fourth straight day, but in terms of -- joe: we had
solid data and everyone watching the pound and those polled in the u.k. that is sort of dominating all the discussion. whatr: we think about could the brexit effect have on u.s. stocks and the first placed my mind goes is financials. that group was leading the way down, but we had some paring back on the end of the day. when you have people like jamie dimon trying to get brexit not to happen. joe: credit card companies all diving across the board after synchrony financial warning that it expects right off to rise.
consumer has been one persistent trend, taking a hit and that something we are going to want to watch. oliver: we are also looking at at&t and verizon. at&t and verizon still involved in a deal for yahoo!. jokes: let's take a look at today's record lows in the bond market -- u.s. yields taking up slightly. goingrman 10 year yields into negative territory for the first time, ending right at zero. yield are looking at that and that is an extra gary chart. scarlet: that tells you everything you need to know about the global macro economy.
against the dollar, sterling at a two-month low after the sun endorsed the leave campaign. in the past 24 hours, five opinion polls have shown people leaving thethe u.k. european union. the chinese yen lower against the dollar, you are looking at the dollar rise versus the chinese currency. has lost 1% against the dollar. no specific catalyst that concern about a slowing economy meeting more capital outflows. outflowsapital shifting to a negative view on the chinese yen. joe: let's talk about what happened with commodities. a selloff in oil, nothing too dramatic and slight gains in gold. sort of the general trend we have seen. scarlet: now let's take a deep
dive into the bloomberg. you can find all of the trends using the function at the bottom of your screen. i am looking at how stress has returned to the global financial market. you had the release of the monthly jobs report which means brexit is all the focus. the white line here is the global stress index that charts across market mix. it has really surged there. but you have moves higher in the vix which measures volatility in equities and the purple line tracking volatility in treasuries. to what extent does the fed acknowledged this in any way when they come out with their news conference tomorrow? joe: remember a week and a half ago we were talking about this low volatility in the market and now there are all of these fears
happening everywhere in the world. i want to look at what i think was the most dramatic chart of the day -- this is the odds of a brexit. this is based on tabulating data from all the big wedding sites in the u.k. remain and5% odds of that has plunged to 62, far and away the lowest level yet. more and more polls show leave in the lead. still leading and more and more polls show leave has the lead. let's limit on the daily son. oliver: i'm going to look at volatility as well and are the vix from your chart and add the euro stocks 50 volatility index. this is a three-day intraday chart. you can see the white line is high relative to history but there has really been this surge
the past two days in the here, the u.s. chicago vix, you can see it has remained elevated, so perhaps some catch up being done in terms of volatility and speculation in the u.s. scarlet: that is a great chart and can be found on our bloomberg terminal. this is "what'd you miss?" moments, emily chang will take the stage with mark and recent -- mark andreessen. let's join them now. have been in we this slow, grinding recovery will stop we started the recovery in 2005 or 2006 and then we had this financial crisis thing happen and that set us back again. recovery for slow the u.s. economy as a whole and i think it has been a slow recovery for silicon valley.
-- i don't know that there's anything that unusual about what is going on. good companies are getting funded and good products are doing well. are very big. markets are much larger than they used to be and the winners are bigger than they ever were before, there's a lot of normal going on which is just very sharp people starting companies and joining companies and loving interesting new products. the basic model or how to build these companies is largely unchanged. emily: let's talk about linkedin going over to microsoft. mark: that is a valid sound effect. [laughter] study ofis a great what silicon valley does. i was lucky enough to be an
angel investor when reid hoffman was starting it will stop somebody's going to need to use linkedin to find a new job. ago -- it that long feels like a long time ago but it wasn't that long ago. they have built an amazing company. it eliminates a lot of the guesswork. when somebody pays me five billion dollars in cash, it's the result of an enormous amount of effort. it has effectively the same user base and they are going to be able to bring them together an interesting ways. i think it is indicative of what we see happening. we see more happening in the pipeline than we have in four years. i think that is fairly typical and most vcs would probably agree with that.
i think it's one of those things and for the last three or four years, a lot of public company sat back and watched and felt the drama play out in the valley and the constant drumbeat of double, bubble, bubble. there are a lot of acquisitions that should happen that just didn't happen and now we have in companies which, most big tech buddies have done well. they have piled up lots of cash and have good businesses and they have to go shopping because they have to fill in gaps in their portfolio. i think it is indicative of what will be a series. there will be a run of them and day year and next year. emily: who is going to buy and who is going to get bought? our companieswith to get them in a position where they can be the buyers but sometimes someone comes along
and they propose a strategic fit that makes sense. a lot of the big american tech companies are in a good position to buy and we see a lot of nontraditional buyers, a lot of fortune 500 outside of tech and there have and a bunch of transactions, companies in the car industry that have gotten inquisitive intact and other consumer product companies, clothing companies that have started buying tech companies, so there will be a run of acquisitions into non-traditional companies. emily: twitter top -- is that a sign of something? mark: a friend of mine calls it new york palo alto arbitrage. the new york view is if linkedin gets hot, it makes twitter more likely to get bought stop the palo alto view is it's probably not going to get bought stop on the margin, it made an
acquisition of twitter slightly less likely. i am positive that are big companies inking about it and i'm positive twitter is thinking about it. emily: twitter is not the only public social network besides facebook. can twitter survive? stop twitter can survive it is an amazing accomplishment over the course of 12 years to build a business that ties. and built a great business there's no question they can generate arbitrary levels of profit anytime they want will stop it just a question of how they want to make it all work will stop they have a strategy under jack to do lots of new things. they could be around indefinitely. i think the question is tech companies are like sharks. they tend to not stay still. of what people are
watching is under jack's leadership, what are they going to do? there are early glimmers of those things that we have not seen the whole plan will stop emily: are they moving slightly backward or slightly toward? investorsed to be an way back when. in the roomnvite me anymore. have lots ofy things but we just don't know what they are. it is hard to handicap these companies from the outside because you don't know what the land is outside the company. in the movie business, jack warner, one of the founders of warner brothers in the movie industry was going through a slump and you is asked how are we going to fix the broken movie business westmark he said there's nothing wrong with the movie business of few good movies won't fix. i think that's the core of tech turnaround or tech strategy in
general. hardad news is that it's to do new products and build innovation. it is hard to do what apple did under steve jobs. there are a lot of things you can't control -- you can't control what product you build and i'm sure they have a plan and if it works, i'm sure it will be great. created netscape in a new bottle -- new model at andreessen horowitz. when youe common theme are trying to create something new? >> it's the opportunity to envision the world differently than it is today. you have this fundamental issue of the difference between a hallucination and a vision is the other people can see the vision. you find yourself out there with the hallucination. you get a chance with a clean sheet of a virtue imagine the world in a different state.
rounderst of the great have in common is they have developed what the world to be like and i get so intense about that they can't understand why everybody doesn't get it. they develop a view of what the world should be like and if they see it, they see it comprehensively. the good ones build up a battle plan to be able to build a company around that idea and this is where a lot of the valley hasn't changed. what's the great executives and engineers and be able to catalyze something. never one person and it's almost never the founders. and the first 20 people then the first thousand people who built it. the team either gels or it doesn't. but when it does, magical things happen. changed ornology has medically. have you matured and changed when it comes to your approach?
mark: i think the level of effort required to keep an open mind epes getting higher and higher. is this thing called the event horizon. that's the point of a black hole where you can't get out again for top we all have a personal event horizon and become reactionary and reach a point where it's like you had me with the pc, i got the smartphone, i got the ice own, i got a's book, but the snap chat thing is just too far. it come i don't understand it and those crazy kids and it's stupid and what are people thinking? substitute anything else that is new. --, by the way, all of us this is a very open conversation because we all do it.
it and you can see it in the body language. it's like you are going down. you have to force yourself. you have to methodically force yourself not to close down and it is so hard, especially hard when you think vcs don't have these problems. , we fund one in 100 of the new ideas that we see that are legitimate qualified things will stop 99 out of 100 times, we say no. of cynicism you can build up when you say no all the time creates a mental fog of negativity and when one does walk in, you have to say ok, this might actually be the thing.
and they come out of left field. everyone after-the-fact new airbnb was going to be huge, but at the time, for every big thing, many experts are on record saying that stupid, so you are constantly up against this wall and you have to keep trying to punch through it. emily: you scaled up the firm. how do you maintain the wally barr of your investment? mark: one is absolute -- you spend all day long trying to work internally with the firm and the founders trying to back the highest quality teams that you can get better. probably the thing that helps is you have to do it on a relative basis. one of the advantages you have is you get to see many teams going after the same thing and you get to do this cross comparison and world class is
almost never everything in one company. great at sales, this company is great at marketing and then you spend time convincing each of them they can learn from the others. and there is a thing where the strongest founders are least interested in input, so when you tell them you are terrible at marketing and there's another company you should learn from and then they say that other companies. x suck and you say yes, that's why they are good at marketing. it is just cajoling people into learning. the role models are there. this industry has a huge number of spectacular people. you get very spread out but they are out there and you can learn from what they do. emily: what are some investors you have made that will prove other vcs wrong? mark: silent as the one i can't emily:lking about stop
we have them represented at our evening event and there was some get this is him. silent drives people crazy. you can get upset about them -- it's like the rorschach tech -- rorschach test for getting upset. say why does it have or liket flavors, why the new york times did, you can the frenchalia at restaurant -- it was a barely a hard one to predict. face andme face to have experienced the problem, it's an amazing and magical thing and the scope and vision is gigantic. it is a fundamental technology company doing fundamental work,
so that's really fun. emily: when it comes to ai, vr, drones, which sector is the most potential for truly disruptive innovation? mark: the two that are moving the fastest with the sure biotech are a alive and . there's a lot happening at the intersection of ai and biotech. there's just been a fundamental technological breakthrough in the last years with deep learning and the rise of superfast, super cheap ships and these data sets. possibleare becoming that were just not possible five years ago. the science there is moving very fast and there is this incredible feedback loop between and itsntific community moving incredibly fast and is very exciting stop the other is
biotech, it's less a single thing. the more a result of convergence of biological science and computer science. that has been developing for a decade but is really starting to pay off now. you have a new generation of whoy minted phd graduates are also computer scientists and you have new sciences like genomics and the studies of the biome and all of these big data sets you are able to gather. the intersection of giant -- of biology and computer science is a magical place. this bio 2.0 fund and all of our first four investments have deep learning and ai at the core of what they do and it's all coming together at the same time. emily: how is apple doing on ai with respect to amazon and
google. mark: i have to take facebook off the table. but i think it is clear that of the big companies, amazon has lapped everybody at least this year and this act of and alexa are fundamental breakthroughs. it is fairly shocking even for people in the field how well they are doing and the consumer response to go from people who are not us is really spectacular. i think amazon has set a new benchmark for what it means to the an inner active ai stop other big companies realize that in there's going to be a certain amount of catch up happening the big thing in the ai world people are talking about is of the big companies, apple is the one who has declared this ideological decision of not collecting centralized data, so the other big companies are building these giant databases
and apple has declared they won't do that because they have this privacy position they have taken. they have this new approach that they talked about this week and theooks promising, but question the industry's will that be enough to keep up with the level of investment google or amazon is making with the level of data access they have. among the guerrillas, that's the big question. one of the reasons i'm excited about is if you had asked me a year ago is ai going to be something big companies are startups do, i would probably say big companies because their view was there was only a small number of people who understand ai systems and then you need these giant data sets that only the big companies have access to. what we have seen in the last six months is a lunch of new startups where it is one where two or three experts, many of whom are coming out of the big
companies and may have either figured out a way to get access to data or figured out a way to do advanced ai on the data sets. emily: you mention there's going to be a lot more and a day. what are you telling companies environment?verall there's a perception that you are counseling companies not to go public stop mark: it's harder to be a public company today than it used to be. i have talked at length about this. it's harder to be public and it is harder to go public and observationally, there's a lot more than there used to be. believether hand, we the pendulum has probably swung too far in against going public and that is where we are and so
we've created a team in our firm focused on ipo preparedness. what is the process to get ready to go public? what is required to go public? it's building a board of directors, your executive team and all these things you have to emily:o public will stop you are counseling them on ipo readiness? mark: then they have the decision. if you get ready to go public, it becomes an obvious thing if you want to take advantage of it. but the companies that do this and take it seriously become better even if they don't go public and become better as stand-alone businesses and become more attractive as acquisitions. process of maturation a
lot of companies are going through right now. and -- scarlet: you are watching "what'd you miss?" equity investors come a big decision is coming down in the next hour. there's a lot of money here at stake. hsb says $30 billion of inflows could come in. joe: china has in trying to get equities involved in this. there is a huge decision coming up. it's down to 154 billion, down 84% from the peak of last year. a great ball of money moving from iron ore to housing.
thati'm looking at a chart looks almost identical to your chart, but this is a chart of outstanding margin debt and you can see how similar it is. that speaks to this big ball of money idea and to how much this market depends on people leveraging into and speculating on it will stop last week, there was this week in the margin debt and that has come down a lot. the question is what do they do today and how much money does that instantly bring into the market thanks to passive investors forced to track the index? coming up, american consumers went on a shopping spree with retail sales closing with their best back-to-back gain since 2014. we discuss what that means to the fed. and just a reminder that if you want to watch the rest of emily chang's conversation with mark andreessen, you can go to live go.
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president obama met with his national security council. he received an update on the us-led campaign against islamic state. the president was briefed on the investigation into the orlando florida shootings. tosident obama: we work succeed 100% of the time. an attacker like the one we saw in orlando only has to succeed once. our extra gary personnel, our homeland -- our extraordinary personal, our homeland security have stop many attacks and saved many lives and we can doubt -- we cannot thank them enough. that we are sobered by the fact
that, despite the extraordinary hard work thomas something like orlando can occur. mark: the president was briefed on the effort to prevent what the white house described as lone wolf attacks. an indiana man has been charged with tony weapons violations after california authorities say he was found with three assault rifles and explosive chemicals in his car ahead of a major gay pride parade. wesley howledes was arrested over the weekend in santa monica. he told police he was headed to a gay pride event in west hollywood that attracts hundreds of thousands of people. protests against new labor reforms turned violent today. inonstrators battled police paris and authorities responded by firing tear gas into the crowd. 26 people were injured. 21 were detained. the french senate is debating labor reforms that would make it easier for businesses to increase working hours and
eliminate jobs. angela merkel says more and more china is becoming germany's economic rival. she says the country's push to produce higher value exports is turning it into a competitor in global markets. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. back to you. get a recap on today's market action. the dow and s&p falling for the worth straight day, the longest losing streak february despite a better-than-expected report for the months of may. it's really just the right fit concerns. i want tos a chart look at that shows something interesting going on in europe stop those top two lines are spain and italy two-year yields with france and germany at the bottom. we are really seeing a return of
the old core versus periphery trade. it has been a long time since we've seen this start the virgins between core versus peripheral, but as brexit concerns happen, people are concerned if there could be contagion or more companies wanting to leave because of political anxiety. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" if it wasn't for the week may jobs report and growing concerns of a exit, the girl reserve might be more inclined to raise interest rates tomorrow. we have been coming through the report and have some charts. .5% gain doesn't sound like much. on a year-over-year basis, we see steady growth in consumer spending, so there's not that much concern on that
front. these numbers have been solid and there's not much sign of a downturn. bright spots was non-store retailers which eclipsed 10% of total retail sales for the first time and you can he this chart shows over the last year, we've seen the fastest growth of nonstore retailers. is it strong, but there is a lot of momentum here. not just online, it could include catalogs. cracking 10% for the first time in this measure and it is accelerating in terms of its growth. not only is it taking up more share, it's taking that up. scarlet: that's a good piece of news but your chart on yield coming down whether it is germany or france or in the periphery is reflective of what we see in other parts of the
world. joe: it's not just 10 year treasuries coming down. guest: i want to point out the fedmonth rate which is the policy rate five years forward. you can think of it as the midpoint on the 10 year yield because it's supposed to be an average of that rate over 10 years. you can see the orange line is at a record low. is actually at a record low. why is this the virgins happening and what does it say about expectations for fed policy? that speaks to this whole idea that it is a lot bigger than the u.s. consumer. we are talking about the global economy and we have lots of anderns about the brexit that's really weighing heavily on the fed outlook. an: tomorrow, we will get
outlook on the fed's. and how they see the long-term playing out. guest: in march, the fed moved there. down but kept the 2017 and 28 teen. unchanged. unchanged. that would be redefining the term gradual. joe: we are looking at the most worrying thing for the fomc. what do we see? guest: the orange line shows the breakeven measure. news onset set good consumer spending because this is what worries the fed. canlet: what consumer predict where they can see inflation? guest: that's what the fed things will determine actual
prices. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" the broader global equity markets were in the red but alibaba was walking the trend. will's largest eco-but a pick up this year. joining us to discuss it is eddie lou. this is a piece of good news when there's so much concern about china and the slow down there. betty: this would seem to be kind of a reversal that they have said they want to dominate the world. of the revenue will be outside of china. not only will they be looking inward and saying what's wrong with what we've got here at home . there's a darker side to all of
this and you recall alibaba had been under scrutiny by regulators for accounting practices, for selling fake goods and things like that. that's one of the things they have to account for. if you want to be a cynic, you could say jack ma doesn't want to deal with government outside of his own country. he could just get a free pass. joe: speaking of the counterfeit issue, there was a headline -- part of the problem is that the counterfeits are starting to be better quality than the actual product because they use the same materials and similar factories. the counterfeits are legitimate competition. betty: they are legitimate competition. there are even counterfeit goods on jack ma's own viagra me.
if you want a cheaper version of that, we just go on its own site and buy it. we need to find a way to counteract that. and they are doing it not just by being a seller of merchandise goods will stop he's kind of taking a page from jeff bezos where he is investing and online videos, he's growing the crowd -- the crowd computing business and going into areas that are beyond we are going to sell you some goods will stop they want to be a platform and getting back to this idea of releasing their own were cast for the first time ever, this is a way to assuage those. as you said, this is their first guidance since that ipo.
they've been under a lot more scrutiny from outside regulators and also within china. part of that is issuing guidance to benchmarks on alibaba. in a fiscal year ending march 2017, if you exclude some of their big acquisitions like a commerce site and others, their growth would be about 36%. it sounds so extreme very, but you are talking about a fast growing company. coming up, presidential rhetoric and gun control. we hear from bill clinton in an exclusive bloomberg interview.
scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. a look at the bloomberg is this flash. tpg and auity suitors partnership of sycamore partners and the actor r said to be entering a final round of bidding for yahoo! according to people familiar with the matter. verizon and quicken loans founder dan gilbert. most offers valued it at between -- $4lion and $6 billion
billion and $6 billion. gawker media is hoping to wrap sale with an opening bid of $90 million rum jeff raises which has agreed to keep on the founder as a consultant if it wins. intoompany was driven bankruptcy after losing a $130 million invasion of privacy lawsuit to rest were hulk hogan. providing someis details about the winner of his charity lunch auction. the winning bid is from a woman. she will get to bring guests to dine with buffett in new york. the annual auction raised $20 million for a homeless charity. boom -- that is the bloomberg business flash will stop -- business flash. "what'd you miss?" renting a home in silicon valley is five times more expensive than it was five years ago.
our guest says rent control would not address the problem, which is lack of supply. joe: thank you for joining us. rents have exploded in the bay area due to limited supply for you say rent control won't really do anything to address the problem and what is needed is more supply. is there any prospect of more supply coming in a meaningful sense? guest: especially for the bay area, it is tough to build their . regulations and high land costs are hurdles that are hard to pass for builders but governor has proposed a bill that will eliminate some of the constraints, though it won't be enough. in the end, we will just have to build more. scarlet: rent across bay area suburbs have climbed about 50%. in bay area, there are different
regions. fastest it growing the and where is a growing the slowest? guest: that is the tricky part with the bay area. there are arts that are growing extremely fast and the proper is one of the fastest-growing parts of the bay area. other parts are growing fast as well and you can move from oakland to san jose and there you have very fast growing rents, especially around mountain view and palo alto, we are seeing strong rental appreciation because there is a lot of demand for rentals out there for top joe: a big part of the day area housing boom we associate with the tech room and we see signs perhaps some of the seeing anywe meaningful signs of a slowdown in the market? guest: i think we are.
i think san francisco is starting to slow down but don't make the mistake of rents or home values are decreasing. growing,g is still just at a slower pace, especially at the high end, we see a slowdown. luxury rentals are not growing as fast as they used to. the problem is affordable rentals. inventoryreally tight situation and we don't see enough that are available and rents are growing fast toward the bottom and. of impact is kind the campaign to lower rents actually having asked mark guest: we are seeing this across the country that there's a lot of activism around trying to stop rental growth or at least trying to get a conversation started about rent control and it is a message that we have reached a breaking point. rental affordability is going to
president clinton: i want to say what hillary did -- we will have to cross that bridge when we come to it. politics is different from what i do. i just try to get partners together and make something good happen. the government should do more of that in the president has tried to involve more people from the private sector in a lot of his decision-making, but you have to be careful to avoid potential conflicts of interest. david: people have raised that an even donald trump has raise that and lots of things get raised, but it gets dicier when your wife is president. thinkent clinton: we will clearly about it and we will do the right thing and try to explain it to the american people but i will have to wait. i don't believe in counting your chickens before they hatch and so let's see how the election unfolds.
be somell clearly changes and what the clinton foundation does and how we do it and we will just have to cross that bridge when we come to it. about the election for a little bit. use served as president for eight years and was a lot of heated rhetoric back and forth and up and down. but what we are seeing in this election strikes me as having a level of personal attack involved and it's not uniquely on the republican side. some candidates on the democratic side as well. this a permanent change in the political discourse in this country or is this an aberration? president clinton: i don't know. easier to say things that don't make a lick of sense now because so many of our people are psy load in their information that i tell people all the time and notwithstanding the terrible incident in
orlando, we are less racist, sexist and homophobic than we used to be. becoming a more inclusive society. our one remaining bigotry is we don't want to be around anyone who disagrees with us either actually or virtually. if you get into a silo like that, you are prone to believe anything your preconceived prejudice would allow and that is not good for us. that's one of the reasons i like all of these cgi of events because people come from every political perspective and make a living different ways and their whole experience basis different and they find it stimulating to be with people who are different from them and they find that what we know, which is diverse groups make better decisions less ane geniuses, much
group of totally like thinking people. i think we have to be supersensitive and look for ways to break out of our silos. fundamentally, people are pretty decent, but if you look around the world, a lot of these campaigns have gotten harsher because of the long drag after the crash. people, say go a long time thinking they can't make their tomorrow's better or give their kids a better future, they feel consciously or subconsciously that the world disrespects them, disregards them, or doesn't see them, so they are less offended if someone gets the kind of treatment they think daily life gives them. we need to be a lot more sensitive than that and be more sensitive to what our neighbors are going through and i think if we did that, slowly, we would
change the culture back to where our politics is a little more humane and discipline. david: one thing that is different this time is questioning the opponent's qualifications to even serve. besay they shouldn't even considered for office. you held the office and have special qualifications. what should be the qualifications we are looking for whether they are republican or democrat? minimum, clinton: at a you want someone who loves the country and believes we are not , that we are an idea and we really do believe we are born to welcome people from every place who love freedom and believe in the rule of law and respect other people's rights to play out their destiny.
mark: it has been two days since americans woke up to the news deadliest mass shooting on american soil. he put the world has been transfixed by how the two presumptive nominees are responding to this moment of national crisis. to talk about what candidates and -- we will talk about what candidates and party leaders have been saying. bloombergnew national politics poll hot off the presses that show hillary clinton leading donald trump by double digits in a head-to-head general election matchup, 49% to 37%.