tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg June 16, 2016 12:00pm-2:01pm EDT
headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i am scarlet fu. oliver: and i am oliver renick. here's what we are watching -- a ysh for safe havens pushing and gold to the highesten of the year. policymakers echo janet yellen. demand is hot for one job on wall street. bankruptcies are at a six-year high and that is creating a steady stream of business. we will talk to one turnaround expert later in the hour. scarlet: we are halfway through the u.s. trading day. the s&p 500 is nursing a sixth straight session of losses, sherry. ri: the s&p 500 is down .7%,
with the nasdaq losing almost 1%. the s&p 500, we see it holding at a three-week low, falling as low as 2050. now recouping some of the losses and coming back down. map functionat the i on the bloomberg, you will see what sectors are losing the most. we are seen energy stocks falling the most right now because oil has now fallen for six consecutive days. now, another thing we are looking at right now is leasing companies. united rentals -- look at that -- fall of more than 6% right there. we are hearing data for may fractionallyld up on the year, rekindling concerns about equipment supply. we have other listing companies
losing ground today. look at the airline sector. they are another sector that are badly hit. a now see them falling for fourth in five days. american airlines now more than 4%. they have been just cut to -- to underperform from neutral by a banker from bank of america/merrill lynch. a say airline companies are very vulnerable to short-term shocks. seems like a lot of red on the board -- gold is up. it is feared trade coming back? sherry: it looks like it is. the big surging. it is up more than 20%. just today surging more -- 11%. that is near a four-month high, reversing two days of declines. as traders seek safety, where are they going to -- well, they are going to treasuries, so you see the 10-year yield now at 1.5
percent, 1.6% right there, lowest since 2012. we also see globally that government debt is seeing a rally, and in german, japanese government debt plunging further into negative territory. yen -- see the japanese gaming 1.8%. the bank of japan also refrained from adding more monetary stimulus. we now see the yen the strongest against the dollar -- and now the yen also becoming the best-performing currency globally this year. --ver: scarlet: creating a lot of headaches. let's check in on first word news. taylor riggs has more. was attackedx
while meeting constituents in her u.s. district in wax -- west yorkshire. i suspect has been arrested. campaigning was suspended in britain's european union membership referendum. canceled aameron has planned pro-european union speech in gibraltar. facebook is being asked to provide the senate homeland security committee with information on the online activity of orlando gunman omar mateen. the committee has sent facebook ceo mark zuckerberg a letter saying during the attack he made several facebook posts and searches. the fbi is also trying to wifelish how much mateen's might have known about the attack. cia director john brennan updated before the senate committee.
isil fighters that could serve as occupants in the west. taylor: brandon says they are relying more on guerrilla-style tactics to compensate for losses. hillary clinton has picked up an endorsement from oprah winfrey. the tv mogul told "entertainment tonight" it is about time the u.s. elected a woman. she calls the election a seminal moment for women. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i and taylor riggs. scarlet. much, --two are so thank you so much, taylor. unionides of the european exit campaign are suspended. nevertheless, a brexit vote is scheduled for next thursday. all today, the bank of england reiterated that quitting the eu
could materially affect the output for inflation -- outlook for output and inflation. i got some insight from the university of chicago professor and author of the book "misbehaving," the famed economist robert taylor. --thaler.aler haler: the old part is thinking with your gut. the new part is thinking with a spreadsheet. are tending people to think with their spreadsheets, they are probably thinking it is a good idea to stay in the eu. the leaves are thinking with their got. scarlet: how do the people pushing to stay in the eu use some of their gut instinct to convince others to stay? mr. thaler: if i was advising
the remaining camp, i would emphasize the potential downsides of leaving, which are all uncertain. i liken this to someone who is thinking about getting a diverse -- diverse -- and i've -- divorce without a prenup. they think everything will be fine. most of the people have told me it will all be amicable, and it is never amicable. that is what this is. it is a divorce with no prenup rules. so, there is one of the a lot of trouble, and we don't know what it is. people tend, in their guts, to be afraid of uncertainty. so, i would accentuate that, and without any misinformation, it is absolutely true we don't know what would happen. we don't know what the terms would be. we don't know what the risks would be to europe, and i think that is one thing that british voters need to be thinking about.
if they cause a cascade within disruptingn they are partner,gest trading and selfishness aside, it would yoube good for us or -- know, it would not be good for us to destroy the economies of canada and mexico. its if that is what the br do, then that would be bad for them. scarlet: i also spoke with richard thaler on the u.s. economy and why we cannot seem to get out of a slow-growth business cycle. mr. thaler: there are lots of reasons we are stuck in this. one that has not been explored quite enough is behavioral firms. we have firms, especially in silicon valley, that are sitting on tons and tons of cash that is earning nothing, soon could be earning negative amounts. it is already negative in real
terms. why are they sitting on all of that money? i think some of it has to do with fear. if i am a smart company -- and i cannot think of any investment that has a positive rate of return if i can borrow at negative interest rates, then i ought to think of some other kind of work. scarlet: at the same time they are looking at asset prices and how quickly they have risen in the slow-interest rate environment with the federal reserve making money so cheap and everyone bidding up share prices. it is not a great time for them to necessarily make acquisitions, so the tendency to sit on their cash gets reinforced. mr. thaler: well, acquisitions -- you know, there is an old-fashioned way of doing things, which is r&d -- you don't have to just by other firms at a 50% premium. so, now is the time -- the last decade has been the time for building new plants, starting new projects, and i see a lot of fear. fear on the part of companies,
and on the part of governments. scarlet: a lot of the times, when asked to explain why they lookearful, they tend to at central-bank policy, what central banks are doing, and how we are in this unprecedented era in which central banks can you push rate lower were won't raises interest rates. talk about what the federal reserve has been doing with forward guidance, and whether that makes sense from a behavioral economist's point of view. mr. thaler: i would say it only makes sense from a behavioral pointics's --economist's of view. a standard economist would say for what guidance doesn't matter. they would use the term cheap talk. cheap talk means, like, the check is in the mail, or i homicide will clean the garage this weekend. so, -- i promise i will clean the garage this weekend. so, these speeches are not binding, the market pays huge
amount of attention to them. so, at the end of my book, i call for it, sort of, start of behavioral macro, and one of the topics i wish we learned more when is the effect of -- janet yellen gives a speech, what is the best speech she should be given? -- giving? i do not think we have any idea. behavioral --of a somewhat of a behavioral economist. her noble prize-winning husband is a behavioral economist. i'm sure they are thinking about this, but there is little to guide them. scarlet: when you listen to her comments, other federal reserve official comments, are you shaking your head wondering what point they're trying to make, or does it make sense to you when you think about it from a behavioral economist point of view? hasthaler: i think janet good intuition about these things, and is naturally call mean, which is good. i think she has gotten better over time. this is really hard.
no, i think she is doing a pretty good job, but there is no research foundation for this sort of thing, and i am predicting over the next five years or so a of papers trying to analyze this. scarlet: that was richard thaler, professor at the university chicago look business, and author of "misbehaving," which chronicles behavioral economics. scarlet: coming up, the mystery stock of the day -- it has been running into pricing problems and has not been able to just do something about it or it cutting production -- it. cutting production has hurt the soul. scarlet: i've a feeling i know what this one is. -- i have a feeling i know what this one is given -- is. ♪
oliver: you are watching bloomberg markets. i am oliver running. scarlet: and i am scarlet fu. we need to head over to the markets desk. mystery stock.he we do have some breaking news here -- we're going to check in with mark barton with london -- ashley, you know what, mark martin is not ready yet here it get you the breaking news when it comes. meantime, let's check on how equities are performing right now. if you look at u.s. stocks, we're looking at the six straight day of -- losses. we did make a comeback following the announcement, but were not able to hold to it.
oliver: still a lot of weakness. it keeps going down, really across every stock index you look at. scarlet: we do have the breaking news now. according to u.k. police, the member of parliament in the u.k., jo cox has died. she has perished after the attack. that is a tribute to the u.k. police. afterer jo cox has died an attack earlier today, and the campaign on brexit has been suspended by both sides for the rest of the day. the u.k. police with the headline that lawmaker jo cox has died after the attack. let's go more to mark barton who has more context on these headlines. mark: we are just hearing from the west yorkshire police holding a news conference that the labour member of parliament who was attacked earlier -- she was shot twice. she was stabbed. she has died after the attack. we understand she was in a
critical condition, the west yorkshire police have confirmed that cox died as a result of injuries. now, the police have also said a man has been arrested, and weapons have been recovered. the news conference is taking place in wakefield in west yorkshire. she was attacked earlier today in her district, the west yorkshire police say. they say it is too early to discuss a motive. it is unclear. -- in hisarlier unclear -- we heard earlier -- this was linked in any way to the referendum. a man has been arrested earlier. we heard from various news sources that a 52-year-old man had been arrested. the bbc website said that a homemade gun was also found at the scene as well. the very tragic news, which has , theconfirmed, that jo cox
labour mp, has died. there was some speculation in the "guardian" newspaper that attacker had shouted "written first." just to state clearly, britain first has come out and said they had nothing to do with the attack, and i should also say that the remain camps and the leave camps have suspended campaigning in light of the event. that was before we heard that jo cox had died. some background on jo cox. she had just been a member of parliament for a year. she was 41 years old. she was a mother of two. she was an mp4 a yorkshire consists -- mp for a yorkshire
consistency. she was an ardent supporter of the eu. some further background, she was nominated as a young global leader by the world economic forum in 2009. this is a very rare occurrence, not only for an antique to be -- mp to be attacked, but for a done attack to take place --gun attack to take place on u.k. soil. in 2010. stabbed he made a full recovery. it is a rarity, and a very sad day, and tragic day. the police news conference in west yorkshire is still taking place. the big news here, the devastating news here, for jo cox, for her family, for the labour party, for her
constituency, is that the labour party member jo cox has died after this attack. the news reporting that she was shot twice. she was stabbed. and a man has been arrested and -- arrested. scarlet: mark barton, t y for those headlines. fromso have headlines jeremy corbyn, the leader of the labour party. he says the party and the entire country will be in shock. we know that earlier when news of the attacks became public, he posted on twitter that he was utterly shocked by the attack. labor leader jeremy corbyn giving some comments saying that the late -- the entire country will be in shock. we will have more on bloomberg markets after this. ♪
a member of parliament, has died after an attack today. we have confirmation from the west yorkshire police. she has that as a result of her injuries. the police are holding a news conference, and the indication so far as they presume the jo cox is a loan incident. they are seeking information on the suspect and they are not looking for anyone else linked to the attack. they are not in a position to discuss a motive for the attack, but we know at the moment for today, the campaign on u.k. referendum has been suspended. both sides have suspended their campaign. -- when you look across the financial markets, brexit worries are pushing investors into safe haven assets. the sterling dropping to a two -month low against the dollar as the bank of england leaves its policy unchanged ahead of the policy vote. in vinceet's bring cignarella, who covers currencies for bloomberg news.
tell us what is happening with pound volatility and what we are looking at as we get into this decision. pound volatility has been high. we have seen continued move toward puts over calls, which essentially is the market betting for a lower pound, hedging against the pound dropping. oliver: that is, sort of, the preferred metric to get some kind of protection in some sense if you want to assume there is going to be downside. are there other places where investors can go, whether it is an option, to get protection should this event send markets haywire? is getting arket nice list as well. the swiss franc will see some strength going into this move. there really isn't a place to hide, if you will. i mean, this is a watershed moment. no one really knows what this is going to be. the markets are treating this as there -- will -- be
light moment. it could potentially be a seven to 10-your event. scarlet: and the euro seems to be getting caught up in this as well. is that a euro story where it is getting caught up in the fallout, or a push into the japanese yen? vince: more of a push into the japanese yen, but the fallout with the euro, should the u.k. leaf, it could raise anti-euro sentiment throughout the european union, spark other countries to bring up referendums. if this snowballs, you will see the follow-up, and this could hurt the euro more than the yen in the long run. oliver: we had a decision from the bank of japan basically keeping the norm, what they are at, and continue to develop this
relationship with a stronger yen . what does that mean for markets that large? a nice,he yen is that strong bear channel. the bank of japan did nothing with my. everyone is not doing anything until after the u.k. vote. there is another vote coming up in july. more likely, if they were to do anything, it would happen at that meeting, perhaps combined with some physical sinless as well to give it a bigger punch. send -- stimulus as well to give it some bigger punch. scarlet: than citronella, thank you so much. we we back with more coverage. ♪
mark barton joins us now from london. the latest headline links to this is that mark carney, the bank of england governor was due to give a speech today. he is scheduled to do so. is that still happening? mark: it is. just to tell you about that, today is the annual mansion house address, and annual festivity held by the london mayor, the lord's mayor of london, and in that eggs -- is an outlook on the economy, and he is joined by the governor of the bank of england, mark carney. from mark carney. he said he will not deliver his planned mansion house speech. instead, he will deliver a short speech, and the bank of england cited the jo cox attack -- if you just joined us, jo cox, the labor mp has died of her injuries.
held a newsave conference. the police a man has been arrested. weapons have been recovered. the police also say the attack happened earlier today in her district. she is the member of parliament since 2015. ae west yorkshire police say full probe is underway to establish a motive, and i think it is very important to say, scarlet, and oliver, that police are not in a position to discuss a motive. -- link this to the u.k. referendum. on the referendum point, we know both parties have suspended their campaigns. prime minister david cameron won't be traveling to the british constituency gibraltar. he has decided to stay in the u.k.. so, a man has been arrested. the police aren't in a position, as i say, to discuss a motive.
they are not looking for anyone us linked to the attack as well, and the police right now are seeking information from other agencies on the suspect. the police also have said they presume the attack is a loan incident, -- loan incident, but they are seeking information from other parties. just use some details about jo cox, she was a 41 euros mother of two. she had -- 41-year-old mother of two. she had been a member of parliament for one year's time and she was an ardent supporter of the european union. she helped to launch the campaign group britain in europe. she was a massive fan of the eu. as i said, we do want to link the event to the upcoming referendum, which, of course, takes place a week from today. further background information -- she worked for an aid agency, then other works for other
groups including the bill and melinda gates foundation. she was nominated as a young global leader by the world economic forum in 2009. i also want to make clear that gun shootings here in the u k are very rare. guns are very tightly controlled here in the u.k., and since the end of the terror campaigns orchestrated by the ira, we have had very few attacks. the last one was in 2010. he made a full recovery. the tragic news today is that jo cox has died because of her attack today in west yorkshire, and a final word from jeremy corbyn, who, of course, was her party leader, he says the party and the entire country will be in shock. it is a tragedy for her family, the labour party, the u.k., and it really is a tragedy for politics and u.k. life as well. that is the latest.
jo cox has bad. tragic news today here -- has died. tragic news today here in london. scarlet: thank you for the perspective. oliver: i want to check out what is going on in the markets. rallied about 86 basis points since the lows of the day earlier this morning. so, perhaps a little bit of change in sentiment. this is coming on the heels of the fed announcement yesterday. also, bank of japan keeping things on par from overnight. scarlet: all right, central banks on pause right now. meantime, let's turn to the business of corporate restructuring. worries about commodity prices have pushed up the index to a six-year high, and that means the business of restructuring distressed companies is booming. oliver: to talk about the industry and its dynamics, let's bring in joe d'angelo, a partner carl marx.
when your business is doing well, what does that mean for the rest of the market? : if we areo involved, companies are typically struggling with something. oil and gas has been good. there has been cheap money. there is not a lot of disruption. but the disruption in commodity prices, things have gotten busier. there are some other general weaknesses we are seeing. you see a number of retail cases. health care is always a perennial sector. there are a lot of regulatory changes. we also do a lot of work in education -- post secondary education enrollment is declined. very difficult to sustain a lot of these schools when they are offering increased scholarships. scarlet: let's say focused on energy companies first, because obviously the price of oil recovering in the last couple of months has changed the playing field for this sector. have we seen the worst of oil and gas bankruptcies, or is there more to come?
in our work we do not try to protect the commodity prices. i think i would make the point that it prices increase a little bit, there is -- there are so many jailed, uncompleted wells that can be -- and drilled, uncompleted wells that can be completed and supply would be brought back on the market, and that could be a constraint on oil prices continuing the increasing. the other thing i would mention that could be interesting is with oil at 48, 49, 50, 4 two or three months, it is possible we could see a little bit of relief, maybe a smidge of availability increasing, whereas the last three we determinations have all been down strokes. i think it is going to take more $65,movement of two $60, to see some good transactions happening. there is no way to justify these current capital structures with any commodity price. so, don't look to the commodity
price to save them. scarlet: so does transactions, i wonder, mean m&a? there has been a lot of speculation, but get it seems to be more restructuring. are these companies not worth buying? mr. d'angelo: right now that is what they have to prove. they have to prove they are creating more reserved than they are depleting. it is a liquidity constrained. under sec rules, you can report your reserves, and you have to have the ability to attain capital to draw them, and that is putting pressure -- downward pressure -- on reserves, in addition to the lower price of oil. so, to see some transactions, some acquisitions and divestitures in a bigger magnitude, you probably need prices to go up a little bit. right now you are seeing people buying acreage around clusters they currently own, and that is a way of them reducing the cost of production to try and concentrate where their activity is. scarlet: what level of interest
do private equities have in the oil and gas sector? oil prices have been all over the map the past year. we has -- we have seen the micawber in 2015 only -- recover in 2015, only to crash this year. what does that mean -- due to the lack of interest and willingness to jump in? mr. d'angelo: private equity investors, hedge funds, and some of them are dedicated energy funds -- there is a lot of money. i have heard over $100 billion out there on the sidelines waiting to make investments. scarlet: does it stay there on the sidelines? mr. d'angelo: what i'm hearing is there is too much of a spread on the big-ask. we see activity in the service company, where they can get better values. oliver: you mentioned retail, and i know this has been part of the market that has been hurting quite a bit, especially with clothing retailers. is that a story about companies that are not adapting to trends properly, or is that about the u.s. consumer? mr. d'angelo: both.
there are several factors affecting some of these retail bankruptcy -- retail vacancies. the a mall's -- they do not want some of these retailers in there anymore. they want some higher skilled brands in there. malls are not getting as much traffic as they used to. they are relying on traffic coming through to the anchor department stores. some of them are catering to a fickle consumer. so, the feds are in and out. the other thing that is undeniable is that internet retail is definitely taking more of the sales than the brick-and-mortar stores are contracting. scarlet: how much is management acknowledging the structural changes taking place -- are they making the same mistakes they used to in the past? are they going back to their old playbook when times are changed? mr. d'angelo: the winners on the fresh thinkers, thinking about brick-and-mortar where people can come and try things on, pick
up with a order over the internet, so that if they want to return it, they do not have to go through boxing it up and bringing it to set up -- fedex and so on. they are taking place is different than mall environments, so some of that fresh thinking will defend sure it -- differentiate the winners and losers. oliver: where is the buying opportunity then? mr. d'angelo: in retail? oliver: right. mr. d'angelo: in joe's jeans, you see companies managing brands, optimizing a disillusioned that works for each of those brands. scarlet: and they're not tied to one company, one bread in particular. joe d'angelo, thank you for joining us. mr. d'angelo: thank you. oliver: coming up on bloomberg markets, an explosion of unicorn startups has many investors thinking their billion-dollar plus valuations. is it a sign of a bubble, something worse? we will explore in today's quick
scarlet: you are watching bloomberg. i am scarlet fu. oliver: and i am oliver renick. this is your global business report. newlet: the doors to the shanghai theme park cap finally opened. emissionolkswagen's scandal might be in the rear, but the automakers struggled to shift gears and accelerated growth. oliver: in today's quick take, the rise and fall of unicorns, and the hurdles ahead as valuations did below the coveted billion-dollar mark. flagyl banks held policymaking zen all held off on any change. thomas that's thomas jordan says
the rocky ride on rates may not be over -- thomas jordan says the rocky ride on rates may not be over. stir jordan: we always it was possible to lower rates. possible tot is not not go anywhere. scarlet: volkswagen is feeling the effects of the emission cheating scandal. shares declined last month by the most since december. the automaker's share of new registrations dropped below 24% in may. while european auto sales rose a most percent, vw's growth rates was only half of that. the world's biggest natural gas exporter is not too concerned about a glut that might last another five years. the deputy ceo tells bloomberg there is plenty of growth in europe. the company is counting on falling output to boost exports and lock in market share. disney has formally opened its first theme park in mainland china. the countries vice premier was among those taking part in
festivities. it is the largest foreign investment ever for disney. china's tourism industry is set to double by the year 2020 oliver:. it is time for the bloomberg -- 2020. oliver: it is time for the bloomberg quick take -- unicorn, a term to describe private startups. it was meant to emphasize their scarcity. now silicon valley's is teaming with them, and sightings are more common in asia and europe as well. here's a situation -- valuing private companies is more art than science, and recently they have not been spared the headwinds that have shaken at the markets around the world. big investors like black rock and fidelity, which have to estimate the worst of their holdings in those unicorns in quarterly findings -- filings are cutting valuations. as a result, many of the companies seeking less capital have to do so unless favorable terms. some even lost the magic spark, falling below the $1 billion
valuation. here's the background. you might remember the .com boom when it was a feverish rush to startups, but it left me with an ipo market in its way, and tougher rules on disclosure in a forced -- in a post-enron worldcom it more difficult, especially for text appears that could tap a vast network of venture capital funds. today, here is the argument -- some silicon valley -- valley observers wonder if it signifies a bubble, and others that doubt it would inflict widespread harm. individual investors today rarely own direct stakes, and shares bought by his additional investors are present a tiny slice of overall holdings. one group that would feel the pain would be the employees where stock and compensation has become the norm. or they would be replaced by what investors call cockroaches -- smaller, more nubile copies,
oliver: this is bloomberg markets. i am oliver renick. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. let's get the market check with stocks hitting the session highs. a little bit of a rebound -- a lot of a rebound, actually. the dow has had a big swing. scarlet: the intraday swing, from p troth, or truck to peak, the dow has swung for the first time since may 24. oliver: a big move up, and the biggest gains are being led by
utilities, .9%. telecoms are right after that. it does seem the trade that was on through most of the year favoring the income and value stocks back on today. scarlet: defensive names rising. let's get to abigail doolittle, who is live at the nasdaq. abigail: we're looking at a bit of a recovery for the nasdaq -- the index is down just .3% as opposed to being down 1.1% earlier. nonetheless, the big drags remain in the technology space. this includes alphabet, facebook, and amazon. another underperformer, check point software after deutsche bank downgraded shares from a hold to a buy. and analyst is citing weakening demand trends. there is a bearish bets there. some investors are probably happy with his downgrade. another drag down earlier for apple, but shares have required. there is some modestly bearish news including a profit warning for the fourth quarter. this is an apple supplier. hall cut hiss ron
expectation to $61 a share. oliver: those reports have sent the apple stock fluctuating. what is the trading range looking like today on apple? abigail: it is interesting. if we look at a one-year chart of apple, we see a lot of volatility. big swings up and down. how it breaks down is hard to know, but in terms of clues, we saw what we call a mini death cross, telling us the selling momentum could accelerate in the days ahead, perhaps taking shares down in the bottom of the range, or perhaps even lower. scarlet: thank you so much, abigail doolittle. oliver: today is the opening day for disney's brand-new $5.5 billion theme park in china, the largest investment ever for the company. when will disney get a return on the investor -- investment? brian wiser weighed in on --
brian wieser weight in earlier today. r: it is part of the global expansion, but ultimately it will take several years to pay back. certainly, it will do well. david: when they get it up and running, fully operational, what sort of bottom line effect could a park like this have for them? is it material? mr. wieser: very little. it does have some upside, obviously, the relative to the factors that really will disney's stock, mean espn, not that much. david: that was exactly my question, brian. i have been reports, and bob either was on our air addressing the -- the growth rate for used in another basic cable properties are declining, flattening out some. will theme parks, even to collectively, be enough to make up for that loss of growth? helps, obviously.
i would argue disney is the fastest-growing company among its peers. when you look at the film studio ,nd the international parks there is still growth in the court media networks segment for disney. the company should still do just fine. it is just not growing as fast as a lot of people thought it was going to grow 18 or 24 months ago. david: which is exactly what bob r said. how much is the strategy is not within the four corners of the park, but a broader brand play for other parks going into china and even asia? mr. wieser: exactly. the consumer product segment and the studio are tightly integrated with the parks business, and the parts could be a great business. it takes a lot of capital to get started, but every dollar of incremental revenue can turn into a lot of increment the cash.
-- anchor mental cash flow. that is equally true on the product business. first this is not the overseas park. what did they learn and what will they learn from china? mr. wieser: i think it is pretty clear with each passing park they made improvements in the relationships they had with local partners. there are always best practices they were able to apply. you go back 30 years ago almost two eurodisneyland, that was their first effort in establishing a local presence outside of the united states. david: there are reports of competition for disney in the theme park business in china from people like dreamworks moving in. how much of that will be a threat to the growth of the shanghai park? mr. wieser: you want to be mindful of it, but you also want to be mindful that 57% of disney's shanghai is owned by
the chinese government. longe long, long, long run, they will have the ability to probably owned it outright. with the government as a partner, it is a powerful ally. david: there has just been a tragic incidents at disney world in orlando where an alligator came up on the beach and seized a two euro child. that is a 10 -- two euro child. it is a terrible tragedy. good stomach that have an effect on their themepark business? thatuld something like have an effect on their themepark business? mr. wieser: it takes a travel expert. probably some risk, but it probably does not have a huge impact overall. david: come back to what does have a huge impact -- espn and other cable properties. it is not just espn. what are the prospects for growing the business -- as you said, it is growing, but not as fast as it was.
what about international, over the top -- other other things they can do to get that growing as quickly as it was before? david: it will be hard because of the absolute scale associated with espn. it is so big and captures so much of a typical consumer's wallet, essentially. i do think there is opportunity for growth from a different -- let's call it consumer products associate with their video assets. it will be very difficult to move the needle on what is already a very large, successful business on espn. wieser that was brian speaking earlier on "bloomberg < go>." ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. oliver: here is what we are watching at this hour -- stocks are attempting to mount a comeback with a 200 day intraday swing on the s&p 500. scarlet: one of the fed's biggest worries is the brexit vote. the u.k.eron is saying must quit the eu. plus, an economist tells us why low gas prices do not feel an economic boom. scarlet: first, let's go to the markets desk and sherry ann has been tracking the swings in the market. we are still looking at a sixth straight day of losses. shery: analyst say the
uncertainty out of the fed yesterday bled into the market. the fed is keeping rates leaving us fairly vague on what will happen with policy tightening. the dow jones is an slightly positive territory. -- losing forve five consecutive days and the nasdaq is down and the s&p 500 2/10 of 1% recouping the earlier losses in the day. looking at futures, they fell overnight for the s&p 500 but now they are attempting to rally again. the s&p 500 is at a three-week low. if you look at oil, we are seeing the speculation that we will see more production because of higher prices. it's pulling oil down today, down 2.8 percent, falling for six consecutive sessions.
we are seeing the longest run of declines since february. it's not surprising that the energy sector is the worst today. look at some of the worst performers. you have pioneer natural resources down more than 5%. it is falling the most since january and the same goes for trans ocean which is also falling for two consecutive days. there is a lot of read right now in the market. oliver: we had a little jump back so what is leading the way? anything related to gold is gaining today because you see gold is having its longest winning streak since february, rising for seven consecutive days and near two-month high. it's not surprising that newmont mining is gaining have a percent, its highest and more than two months in the same goes for barrick gold. looking at the grocery chain kroger, they announced first-quarter earnings that beat estimates.
it is now gaining the most in more than one month, gaining more than 2%. , they a look at merck have some positive results out of their new lung cancer drug trial, meeting expectations but also exceeding in some cases, being superior to chemotherapy. merck is gaining more than 2% and getting the most in more than two months. there are a few bright spots in the market. scarlet: thank you so much. oliver: let's check in on the first word news where taylor riggs has more. say the labor party is meeting with constituents in west yorkshire when she was shot twice. a suspect has been arrested. witnesses told the bbc he had a handmade gun and campaigning has
been suspended for the day in the british referendum on the european union. a man described as psychologically troubled with links to radical islam has been detained in southern france. officials say he is suspected of plotting possible attacks on american and russian tourists and police after two police officers were stabbed at their home by an extremist claiming loyalty to islamic state and the attacker was killed in a police raid. isbaltimore, the judge refusing to dismiss charges against the officer facing the most serious offenses including second-degree murder manslaughter in the death of freddy gray. vanofficer drove the police in which freddy gray suffered a fatal spinal injury and the attorneys are now presenting their evidence. he is the third officer out of 60 stand trial. 32% of americans view the republican party favorably according to the latest bloomberg politics poll.
it's the lowest level recorded for the gop since the start of the poland september, 2009. the democratic party is seen favorably by 49%. congress is viewed favorably by just 24%, the lowest since march, 2010. day,l news, 24 hours per powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 120 news bureaus around the world. scarlet: thank you so much. let's turn to one of the most widely read stories. china is burning through its warchest. what you are talking about is its foreign exchange reserves. this is a 10 year glimpse at their fx reserves. there is a steady accumulation from the mid to thousands to 2014 and since then there has been a draw down with china using 20%.
oliver: that draw down as what as caught market attention investors are figuring out whether they are selling treasuries or stock. there is a treasury story where they have been getting rid of the u.s. bonds. wrote about and i what they are doing and equities. -- in equities. there is selling and the bond market and stocks and there has been quite a bit of selling. they have unloaded roughly 40% of their u.s. equity holdings over the course of march through february. that is a lot in the impact on markets is important. scarlet: it's perhaps not as well-known. chinaveryone thinks about drawing down u.s. assets is holdings of treasuries. way in whichcific people are that china is raising cash and getting rid of some of its holdings is by selling the treasuries. china is the world's biggest holders of u.s. treasuries and
japan is number two. there has been a downward trend since late 2013. over the longer term, it's a different story. the official holdings are still fairly substantial, above $1 trillion since 2010. but the stock was a lesser-known story. oliver: that's what was interesting, the fact that they sold about $150 billion in equities. that is small compared to the giant equities market overall. when you consider what a large asset manager holds, that's quite a bit of stock going out of the market. it fits into a broader story. this chart shows foreign sellers around the world. this sheds light on maybe who is contributing. ,ou can see the 12 month some foreign holders of u.s. equities are selling stocks. it has not been this low since we started recording the data at bloomberg.
it's interesting to figure out what impact that has on the markets and with the country is going to do, what china will do to us wage the market from depreciating their currency. scarlet: your previous chart was talking about chinese government selling equity holdings, that's not the official data. the government can announce that and you have private holdings that the government may own through custodial accounts. that ends up showing up in places like they'll demand luxembourg. this is oafish holdings. it's interesting to figure out what is happening. we found that if you look at private selling in the chinese country, there investors have been flat. private sellers have sold of equities but not to the same extent.
as you saw from that chart, the treasuries have been flat. they have shifted toward equities and you look at the market since they started selling, they are good at timing stocks and the fact a soul before the market turned around. maybe they know the market better than we do sometimes. scarlet: they were accumulating as the market went up so the cut -- timing could not be better. we will be back with more on bloomberg markets. ♪
second straight week. the average 30 year fixed-rate --ddipped.bt scarlet: airbus says it will struggle to meet a goal of delivering more than 50 wide-body jets this year. there are delays involving the company that makes plain parts. dhabi: 2 thanks in abu are exploring a merger. neither banks are commenting. there is lower government spending and slower growth and a declining asset quality. scarlet: that is your bloomberg business flash up date. has beenavid cameron intensifying his campaign to stay in the eu in the final days before next week's referendum. , theere are the experts
bank of england, the imf, all saying our economy would be smaller and therefore we would have less money to spend on public services. i also think there is a deeply common sense here. market, we get free access to 500 million consumers. that is crucial for our economy, almost half of what we sell. if we have less access which we would, that will impact our economy. isrlet: his former advisor breaking ranks and says the u.k. must leave the eu. is now the cofounder of a data technology startup. we welcome you to the program. we need to begin with the tragic news today of the u.k. labor party lawmaker who has died afterbeing attacked greeting constituents in her district and west yorkshire. your thoughts? >> it's such a terrible tragedy. we just feel for her family and her friends and everybody that new her.
everyone is completely shocked. on the referendum has been suspended for the time being and we are waiting to hear more details and learn about what happened exactly before we can think about whether or not it will have any effect on t campaign. scarlet: what do you make of the report that an eyewitness saw r shoutinge britain first. >> you may have more recent news than i do. i saw a report subsequent to that where another eyewitness did not hear that. the whole picture is very confused. we need more time to understand exactly what happened. broke, iefore the news want to ask you about where you ofe seen different instances nationalism taking hold around the world. leavingrexit case for part of that? >> there is a number of
arguments involved in the brexit case. there is a strong economic argument. in the campaign until today's tragic news with -- was that the people in favor of leaving are winning. if we left the eu, we would have more control over our economy and immigration and the rules and regulations that affect this on that would be of most to the british economy. it's a broadert, argument about who actually runs the country. it's not so much about nationalism but about democracy. when i was working in government with the prime minister at downing street, a huge proportion of the laws and regulations that affect daily life in britain comes from the is originated not by elected politicians but by unelected bureaucrats. i think that is the common theme
behind was going on in other countries and the u.s. in the presidential campaign, the sense that you have an unaccountable elite of technocrats and there are kratz that are driving policy in ways that regular people cannot affect even for the democratic process. scarlet: many people say that what's happening in this referendum is one that hinges on a motion. atpoke with richard staler the school of business. say when weists think, there are two parts of the brain working. the old part and the new part. the old part is thinking with your gut and the new part you might think of as thinking with a spreadsheet. people who tend to think with are thinkingheets it's probably a good idea to stay in the eu. the leaves are sticking with her
guts. scarlet: both sides are accused of seeing disingenuous. they are fear mongering on the economic argument and the other side on the immigration risk. what can the remain camped do better. ? >> i have the greatest respect for richard because i worked with him in government. i don't think it's quite as simple as he says. actually, when it comes to immigration, for example, what the remain side of the argument have no response to is the truth that our immigration in the u.s. is completely broken. it's impossible for the government to fix it in a way that would benefit the british economy by inviting and welcoming people from around the world, not just from europe, but entrepreneurs and engineers and the talent we need to boost the
economy and welcome people from beyond the eu to come here. it's simply not possible because it's an open door to anyone from within the 28 countries of the eu. that's a practical argument and economic and rational. the remain side of the fence does not have a good response. oliver: thank you so much, steve hilton. still ahead, why the dot plot proves the interest rates will be lower for longer. ♪
there was monetary policy that was left unchanged. scarlet: the one made by fed chair janet yellen yesterday was key. let's go to cory johnson and carol massar. thank you so much and we welcome everyone on bloomberg tv we are talking with the chief market strategist. todaynt a lot of digesting what we got from the federal reserve. no one expected them to do anything and yet it's impacting markets. >> it absolutely is and i think it will continue to do so. there are so many took -- subtext yesterday. it was not just about keeping rates on hold but it was about the expectation for the longer term and seeing the rate expectations drop for next year and the year after. carol: that's remarkable. during the was and press conference, she was talking about secular stagnation
which is code for slower growth for the u.s. economy for longer and a readjustment to the fed policy as a result. cory: the functionality and usefulness of the dot plot, does it apply? i wonder if it really helps is now? >> that's an important question. it is still useful because it helps you get in the heads of the policymakers and understand better why the recent slow growth, why the number for jobs was so disappointing for the fed. they clearly have a more optimistic point of view on the u.s. economy and markets do or business people do. the useful thing is the fed funds futures market which is affected by all these moves and does not expect a rate increase until the first part of next year. you are looking at the wisdom of crowds, what
specifically should we keep an eye on? >> is one of these concepts were different people with different points of view can come to a better conclusion about a given potential outcome than one or two people or a handful of people. i use the example of the federal reserve versus fed funds future. you have to use the fed funds futures as your northstar. dots are irrelevant as to what the fed will do. a better take on the outcome is the futures market. carol: that market can move so quickly. we look at the wrp function but it can train -- changed dramatically. >> when things get close to 50% is when that market is saying that there is a shot here. below 50% like it is now for the rest of the year in some cases below 30% and 40%, it's saying that much of a chance. so it's the wisdom of the
crowds and not the lunacy of the crowds. >> the crowds can be fickle. fed funds futures trade to the way stocks trade. you have seen a bit off the bottom today. people have been coming in to the rate cycle is off the table and don't have to worry about that. this is an indicator of market expect haitians that builders into equities -- expectations that filters into equities and every thing else. carol: it's a where to environment no matter which way you cut it. >> it is in its compressed into the last two weeks of the second quarter. you have the fed moving yesterday but next week, brexit is on the table but the fed stressed test comes out on the same day as the brexit vote. have the rebalance
coming down a week from tomorrow. always have things going on in the market but what's different this time? >> what feels different is the fed have been a mic drop on the market. they say they don't know what's going on in her and even during market offense, you have the backdrop of a fed that was nominally clear about their trajectory for rates and the economy and the game plan and now they don't seem to have one and that adds tension to the next couple of weeks. market events are pretty well-known. mic drop.ust said does that mean we should not a so much attention to the fed now and we should look at the financial results of companies? >> the short answer is probably. at the same time, the fed understands they probably dropped the ball yesterday for -- so look for speakers to come out to establish leadership. carol: thank you so much.
scarlet: let's begin with the headlines on first word news. taylor riggs has more. the u.k. police a british lawmaker has died after being shot during a meeting with constituents. a labour say jo cox, party member was shot twice and she was 41 years old was elected last year from west yorkshire. police have arrested a suspect and campaigning has been suspended for the day on the referendum of whether the u.k. should leave the european union. president obama is in orlando, florida to pay his respects to the victims of the nightclub massacre. the tragedy may reshape the presidential race. president obama has been pushing for run control, gay rights, and acceptance of muslim americans and rebuked donald trump are proposing a crackdown on muslims in the wake of the shooting. senator bernie sanders is reportedly not being considered as a running mate for hillary clinton. the wall street journal is
reporting her campaign is looking closely at massachusetts senator elizabeth warren. vetting is in the early stages and others include.0 tom perez and hud secretary castro. the egyptian investigation committee says the egyptair cockpit voice recorder has been found and pulled from the mediterranean sea. officials say was damaged but the memory unit is intact. the egyptair flight crashed and roof from paris to cairo on may 19 with 66 people on board. to cairote from paris on may 19 with 66 people on board. scarlet: thanks so much. turning to the economy, the fed kept the status cuomo but it should cut rates according to the former minneapolis fed president. he weighed in on what was about the fed's
decision. >> there is a bias toward normalization. it's simply a human instinct to say look, economic conditions look like they are back so can we start to make policy the way we used to? unfortunately, the answer is no to that question but i can see that it's humanistic did do that. oliver: more fed official c-1 rate hike this year, six out of 17 which is up one in march in our next guest agrees. pmg chief economist at k joins us now. we had yellen on? dachshund bank of japan overnight, what to make of this? >> i have been saying one rate hike for a couple of weeks now. i was originally in the 2 rate hike camp last fall. as we have seen the economic data unfold, more
internationally, i look at the u.s. data but we are not doing that badly. we are seeing jobs growth and some wage growth and housing come around. a lot of the disinvestment we saw in the fourth quarter and the beginning of this year was related to oil and gas. couple ofave another quarters to that but that is a temporary drag. notall globally, we are seeing the investments we normally see in a recovery. when i hear the comments, there is a really valid point that growth quality is maybe the issuene number is not the that the quality feels less rope us. is ajanet yellen mentioned globally aging population which is dis-inflationary. it's something that should be impacting the fed thought process. scarlet: it's a structural problem not limited to the united states.
what does gradual mean in a new normal? >> gradual rate hikes? it could mean maybe one more this year and then maybe one in january or march of next year and possibly a second one in the late third or fourth quarter next year. hikee looking at slow rate schedules and part of that is what going on and part of that is what is happening globally. german 10 year bonds are just a low negative area japan is down -20. are a bond investor and you are looking for a place to put money at the margin, you will come into u.s. treasuries. the fed cannot have a yield funds atre we have fed 150 and the 10 year at 170. only so far they can go as long as the money flows keep
coming in and keep the long end of the curve anchored. oliver: talking about global concerns and the yield curve, there is talk about how the u.s. is the best house on the block. scarlet: best house in the worst neighborhood. oliver: basically, you got concerns around the world but it does not sound like we are that inflated. if we have these forces pushing rates,when the fed hikes will there be any reaction in the yield curve? longthink we will see the and move up a little bit but it depends how the rates go globally. there is continued pressure or the marginal ire to come into u.s. treasuries. if quantitative easing and negative rates work and we get the economy going, we can see a move back up to positive rates. that would be a great day.
it would help us normalize our this is reallya a new normal. what signs are there to indicate that negative rates are working? let's take japan off the table for a moment. there structural issues are immense and they have been a falling working age population since 1993. the u.s. has only been dealing with this since 2010 and we started to see some effects when mario draghi first went negative in 2014. beingt from bank loads negative for about two years and then rising and being positive. se we continue to see the grea that moves the wheels turning in europe that's a good sign. if unemployment rates come down in europe, that is a good sign. everything going on with brexit
creates uncertainty and even when there is a vote, it will not be resolved. the markett's what is coming to realize is that this is not a definitive date where we have an answer. scarlet: we are in uncharted territory when it comes to that. going back to the aging population in the u.s. and abroad, how does that shed light on where we are in terms of inflation and employment? have we gotten the most we can in terms of price increases? >> i don't think so. we have seen some labor market tightness in certain areas and these are the areas where there is not a lot of supply of workers. or arease stem workers where you need more education and specialized skills, we see some shortages. we are seeing some wage pressures as a result. that is not economy wide but surveys indicate it's coming. nfib and their the
between gains and losses. i think it's briefly positive at the moment and financials are coming off the intraday lows. of 1% after the low over here and now losing as much as 1.3%. it is recouping some of the losses now. the banks are having a tough time right now with the fed lowering its projection for policy tightening. banks are still down more than 5% at the moment, losing for a fifth day out of six. looking at individual movers, we of 1%pmorgan down 21/10 which is the lowest in about one month, losing for six consecutive days but still off the intraday lows. looking at regional banks, they
are even worse. the thought is that they are not the same as the major money banks like jpmorgan and citigroup. we can see maybe regional banks doing worse than expected. regions financial is down more than 1% and credit card companies are losing ground at the moment. oliver: thank you. let's look at oracle. their latest earnings are due after the bell. let's go inside the data. the overall public cloud market is expanding rapidly. it's forecast to reach more than $140 billion in 2019 which would rather resent -- which would
represent a 19% growth rate. in at the end of february, cloud service posted revenue growth of more than 60% in constant currency terms. by contrast, total software sales increased only 3%. is falling.ine oracle has seen an overall sales decline as it shifts to the cloud which is not a surprise. when software companies make the transition, licensees decline and revenue rises. it leads to volatile financial results. the oracle expansion in a variety of cloud services starting -- is starting to hamper margins. they're operating income growth is the white line and the operating margins is the orange line and both have been trending downward. they said physical 2016 will be a trough year for margins and perhaps that is reflected in that slight upturn at the end of the chart.
competition in the cloud spaces heating up. the aggressive oracle moves may spark other company like salesforce which is the market leader by revenue. it recently announced its biggest acquisition yet, demand where, to defend its share against oracle and sap. oracle will report its earnings after the bell today. cold does notbut sound good but that's a new store panel project -- solar panel project in canada but the way it's being funded is through green bonds. we are joined by pamela ritchie in toronto. bonds, how the green much is this industry driven by investors seeking environmentally conscious investments questio? >> there is massive growth in solar projects around the world.
have becomes cheaper and institutional investors are getting mandated to offer their investors socially conscious or green investments. when they do come to market, they are ramping up quickly. today, people out are desperate for yields and in some cases, the bonds look like good or better investments than sovereign barnes -- bonds. issued notes, $470 million worth of 20 year notes. some of the numbers speak for themselves in terms of being a good investment. oliver: green bonds are a drop in the bucket compared to bonds issued for fossil fuel? are we getting close to a tipping point? >> it seems like we could be. year, $336 billion were raised in green bonds globally. this year, $55 billion will be
raised via this market. it looks like a drop in the bucket. however, if you look at similar estimates coming out of bloomberg new energy finance for peak coal and oil and task in 2025, you can see this shift may well be coming along and it could be a tipping point for investors to be more interested in the green bond. province inince to canada, how is it stacking up in terms of issuance? >> ontario is the leader. they had their second issue of green bonds offered in february, $750 million. it sold quickly and alberta might be the next province. it is home to canada's oil patch. there is a huge shift in the policy for the province. they are favoring a shift to low carbon and that may be a
province with more green bonds on the way. scarlet: thank you so much. it's time for the bloomberg's newsflash. pimco is planning job cuts after assets under management have fallen since the departure of bill gross. they want to cut 3% of their workforce. their assets stood at $1.5 assets stood at $1.5 trillion as of march 31 down from a peak of $2 trillion two years ago. scarlet: walmart is cutting positions and management at 500 locations in the western region of the u.s. and it will affect two or three people per store. walmart has about 1.4 million workers at its u.s. stores. expandingver: uber is its food delivery service. it's a second european city after paris offer the service in
several european cities have the program. the company sees food delivery as a natural extension for its network of drivers on the road. that is your business flash update. scarlet: when we come back, we'll go live to london to discuss the fall out from the shooting and the death of a member of parliament. we will have more coming up. ♪
scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. let's get back to the breaking news -- u.k. police have announced that cox has diedker jo after meeting constituents. our london bureau chief joins us. we reported a few hours ago x after beingjo co shot in north yorkshire which is in the north of england. she was 41 years old and was a lawmaker for the last year. police have arrested someone they suspect. in terms of the reports, the guardian reported that someone was shouting britain first before attacking
her. has this been confirmed? has not been confirmed but the reports and elsewhere say that her assailant shouted that3. . a group of that name is anti-immigration and eu membership has come out and said they had nothing to do with the attack and they don't condone such behavior. report, a few people said this perhaps could delay a brexit vote. any word about that? >> it would be hard to change it at this point. it is one week away. the vote will be next thursday. scarlet: we know that mark carney was scheduled to speak later today. it was something on his schedule so what do we know about his speech and what he is likely to say? >> the mansion house speeches speech.al
they were supposed to talk today and mark carney was supposed to and then on more pressing policy matters. they will attend the lunch but their comments will be shorter. cox today but policy will take a back bench. brexitarticipants in the debate took the sidelines. oliver: thank you for joining us. that's a terrible event in london today. we will revisit what is happening in the market. we are still seeing a little bit of strength but back into the red in terms of the dow and the s&p but still hanging on in the s&p 500, roughly about 160 stocks are up on the day. looking at this chart,
this is the intraday movements. it was down at the open and we about 90 minutes into the open of the u.s. market. since then, we have steadily recoup their losses just off the highs of the session. we never really ventured into gains for very long. it was maybe an hour or so in even then it looked to a two. oliver: we also look at volume and this is a trend where it has happened multiple times is on negative days. there is a little bit higher volume on down days. there is the conundrum about gas prices which have been lower but consumers are not spending that extra cash. i put that question to the famed economist richard thaler. is a professor at the booth school of business. >> this is a good illustration
of mental accounting. it's the idea that people have budgets. they tend to keep these separately. there is a nice study that i talk about it might look that shows that when gas prices fell, one of the unintended -- unintended outcomes were the people bought more high test. scarlet: so they spent on premium gas instead? 2009 wheres was in everybody is tightening their belts except they are buying more premium gas. why is it? gasp does it of 100 dollars per week and now they are spending $50 and may feel rich in the gasp budget so they treat themselves. scarlet: they splurge on gas but nothing else? >> yes, in this study they had evidence on what people bought.
this was a supermarket that also had gas stations. there is no tendency for them to buy better orange juice. they bought better gas. i think people are probably some of their money from gas and it's good because we need to save more. scarlet: that was richard th aler. chronicles the making of behavioral economics as a field of study. oliver: which is not an easy study to understand. coming up, the former fed insider will tell us what he makes of the fed decision not to raise rates yesterday and why he things he may not hike at all. ♪ . .
david: from bloomberg plus world headquarters in new york, welcome. the dramatic swing for stocks, the dow having its first 200 point move since may 24, reversing earlier losses. safety plays are leading as brexit worries continue. vonnie: gold futures at their highest levels in nearly two years -- why oil is tumbling. david: with the u.k. possibly on its way out of the european union, is it still an attractive option for countries not in it? the markets close in about two hours. let hit the markets desk where rami has more on what is happening. ramy