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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  June 17, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EDT

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>> we have lost a great star. she was an mp, great campaigning mp, with huge compassion and a big heart. people are going to be very, very sad. campaignseferendum are suspended for a second day following the murder of labor in mp and remain -- labor remained camped jo cox. reduced expectations of a brexit. and currency concerns, japan's a minister calls for g-7 coordination. ♪
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welcome to countdown everybody. i am live from london, this is bloomberg television. we are aware this morning that holding data is then with details of speeches have been canceled, on both sides of the eu referendum debate for a second day. this is of course in tribute to cox, alling of mp jo proponent for the remained camped. markets they'll have been reacting to her killing, drawing their own conclusions about what this means for the future of the u.k. in the future within europe. just a point out what has been happening to some of the betting odds around brexit, we have seen some of that coming down. that is as a continuation of the last couple of days mimissing te pound moving little bit higher. radar,d be on the risk you can see how other asset classes have been reacting to the same news making its way into the asian equities at him. we see little bit of rally going
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on in equity markets this morning. a rebound as brexit risk as bing, an increase in the msci asian-pacific index by half a person this morning. the yen is fairly flat, and limited by other factors. and we had the finance minister in japan talking about the need for g7 and g-20 coordination, to take on what he calls the currency moves in the market, seeing the yen the strongest in two years. the safe haven away from politically confused markets of course. and let us join the dots on the oil price, that is up by 7/10 of 1%. snapping a six-day losing streak. let us get up-to-date with all the bloomberg first word news. anna, both sides of the u.k. referendum debate have suspended the campaign for a second day after the killing of coxp liberal politician, jo
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died after she met voters for the west yorkshire constituency. a man has been arrested. dshe was a committed member of the remained camp. britain first has denied any involvement in the killing. prime minster david cameron -- prime minister david cameron: this is actually dreadful news. i spoke with jo's husband brendan and the wider family, we lost a great start. mp, great great campaigning mp, with a big heart. and people will be very, very sad. dreadful, dreadful news. japan's finance minister has escalated concern about coordination for g-7
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counterparts, to describe what he calls his orderly moves in the currency market. he spoke before government and boj officials met in tokyo to exchange information. also comments as the yen slipped from a 20 month high, still in one of four territory. senator bernie sanders has told supporters he will soon take on a new role in the effort to defeat donald trump and the president election. it is the closest yes come to conceding that hillary clinton will clinch the democratic nomination at the party convention next month. senator sanders: i look forward in the coming weeks to continue discussions between the two campaigns, to make certain that your bonuses are heard -- voices are heard, and the democratic party passes the most aggressive platform in its history. and the democrats actually fight for that agenda. haslinda: a growing number of prominent u.s. operations are
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opting to drop or scale back sponsorship other of the national convention. they include wells fargo, ubs, motorola, j.p. morgan chase, and ford. none would say whether the nomination of donald trump was a factor. some top elected officials are also skipping next months meeting in cleveland, after warnings of large-scale protest. and pimco is cutting jobs, losing 68 positions, or about 3% of the workforce. the dividend income strategy team, the firm has assets falling by 20% in the last three years. cofounder bill gross says the total return, before leaving abruptly in 2014. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 or less and more than 150 bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . anna?
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anna: haslinda amin with the first word news. tributes are pouring in for cox.n supporter mojo >> we lost a wonderful woman, a wonderful woman apartment. her work willacy, go on. as we mourn her memory, we are working to achieve the better world she spent her life trying to achieve. >> people are free in this country to live their lives as they choose, and express themselves without fear. society will protect their right to do so, and hold to account those who disregard our laws. today's horrible events are an assault on all of these values. anna: so campaigning has been suspended for a second day. polls are being withheld from at least one we know of being withheld. speeches have been canceled. let us put the likelihood of a
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brexit, talking about the backdrop of the u.k., i'm pleased to be joined by alexandra dryden, from j.p. morgan. thanks for coming in. campaigning is on hold. the step away from the immediacy of the brexit campaign and talk about the bigger picture around the u.k. we had warnings for the bank of england yesterday talking about the extent to which they already see the brexit debate impacting on the u.k. and a slowing things down in the u.k. they certainly see that. do you see that over at j.p. morgan asset management? alexander: the challenge of the moment is try to work out whether the slowdown we are seeing in the u.k. data, does it have some the good do with the brexit referendum or is it some part of a bigger trend? now you k.d. that has been slowing down for the better part of a year now. and maybe it has been accelerated by the referendum. but we will not really see until the summer after it, in the case of remain vote, see if we have any rebound or recovery
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investment and employment, see if the brexit blues situation, or if this is part of a bigger trend. anna: some worry about foreign investment in the u.k. given the current account situation and whether the u.k. an still be an attractive destination. the trouble is some of the data is quite lacking, are to work out if that is impacting. alexander: that is something that is a big challenge. for us looking at the bigger picture, there are two drivers. one is activity growth and one is getting people off the sidelines of unemployment and into work. we haven't really good in the last five years of getting people off the sidelines and into what is about 2.6 million jobs in the economy since the lows of 2010. the problem is you can i keep growing the economy like that forever. and there is a problem where productivity growth stops coming through. we have not been seeing that. from 1970 up until the financial crisis, 2.5% each year. now, the financial crisis
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-.5%. a lot of this has to do with businesses being reluctant to invest in new factories, buildout research and developing, because they're concerned about the political environment. we have see the scottish referendum, now the brexit referendum. all of that together is combining to make businesses or the cash rather than invest. anna: and yet, cash is so cheap relative to history. we are learning a lot about how much confidence businesses need to invest, no matter how cheap the money becomes. alexander: any cfo in charge of a large international company over the last year, the last few years, will be reluctant to invest. if you made it to the financial crisis, you made it through the eurozone crisis as well, you will likely be nervous. you do not believe in the recovery. still very fragile in many places and businesses still tend toward cash, rather than invested. they were rather given back to shareholders in the forms of dividends and buybacks rather than expenses, investments such
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as building factories, where you might have to the benefits for many years. and that might not go s down so well with shareholders. anna: you point out in your notes, around the businesses that have been able to survive the financial crisis because money is being so low. alexander: so what has been happening is that the low interest rates allow what i call zombie firms to keep paying interest rates that would never get to the principal of the loan because rates are so low. there are about 70,000 zombie firms reported last year in the u.k. now what that means is that it is a misallocation of capital. banks leave their money and capital with these companies that are not using it in the most effective way. and it's sucks capital away, from covenant that would otherwise be profitable and new research and development, new tech companies who need that capital in order to grow. that is something weighing on productivity, not just in the u.k. but in the u.s. as well. anna: is there any implication of the brexit debate into which
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way the vote goes next thursday and into the productivity conversation? since the financial crisis i have had a lot of conversation about what it is that is driving the low productivity, not just in the u.k. but elsewhere. in that sense, in terms of that being a priority, productivity up in the u.k., does the brexit conversation matter? does it change anything? alexandra: if we get anything but remain vote a big lyrical clout has been lifted. if we vote to stay in, now that might make companies more willing to invest, willing to go for the long term. because they don't have a general election, scottish referendum, and an eu referendum to contend with. it might be a look to invest over the longer term. in the vote that we leave the eu, and i think businesses will think twice about investing in the u.k. at least in the short term. over the next sort of one or two years, the u.k. crashing of the trade deals, it is likely that
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investors will move elsewhere until the political situation stays up a little bit. anna: that seems we get clarity next thursday. and while we will know who has won in the sense of the numbers, we might not be -- if it is a" for example, that is when you start to enter this limbo situation. never where people question whether this has really put in the past by this vote, or if there is still a talking point in the u.k. in the years to come. alexander: i think there is always been a discussion point about the referendum that goes back decades. this is the first one we have had in decades. i don't think it will be one every year. so hopefully a vote on decision on thursday will be decisive and put this issue to bed once and for all. anna: we will see whether that does come to pass. talk to me about the market strategy at the moment. the broader market strategy, the latest conversations in terms of the low yield environment, we
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talk about rate hikes on the program this morning, talking this week and watching the bond deals is getting lower and lower. many, many decades, in some cases. how do you see that developing? is this also something that the markets wille, no be able to move on from to some extent? i do not see me, us getting out anytime soon. central banks are still in rate cutting mode. the top 50 central banks and now cut interest rates between them 660 times. since lehman brothers collapse, that is once every three trading days. now they do not show any signs of stopping. and so far this year, we had 35 interest rate cuts in the top 50 banks. there doesn't seem to be any sign that this low yield or even know yield world that we are entering into will be reversed anytime soon. for that to happen, really we need the fed to start raising interest rates at a bit of a steeper incline and they're doing at the moment. and we need the central banks to
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get in a position to do so before this low yield world starts to reverse. anna: are you in the camp that blame central banks for the negative interest rates in the world and what that does to resources, but do not blame the central bankers there's spotting to a gloomy outlook. alexander: i fully understand while they did what they did with the data, i would've probably done the same thing, a similar approach of cutting interest rates to try and stimulate the economy. but now we are seeing central banks, particularly in place ofe japan, the very limits monetary policy. the bank of japan is a top 10 shareholder in 96 firms. it is earning 46% of the japanese bond market. there is not very much more it can do to stimulate the economy. anna: too much intervention in the chinese economy. alexandra dryden from j.p. morgan stays with us here on the program. 6:14 in london. here is a look at your day
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ahead. at 10 a.m. u.k. time, imf manager christine lagarde takes place when the austrian finance minister. russian president vladimir putin speaks at st. petersburg economic forum at 1:30 u.k. time. you.s. housing data start. and mario draghi will be speaking in munich. of the st.y two petersburg economic forum and we will be speaking to the largest outdoor advertising corporation in the world. ♪
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anna: welcome back. this is countdown. 6:18 in london. 1:18 in hong kong. the hang seng up by 8/10 of 1%.
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let us get the bloomberg business flash. haslinda: anna, a former goldman sachs banker pleaded guilty to receiving documents that have been created from the federal reserve bank of new york, he has been banned from the financial industry. for any barred association with a broker, investment advisor, or disabilities dealer. authorities are said to be investigating employees, and varejao occasions they help customers evade taxes. according to person familiar, officials examining whether the bank helped clients dodge taxes on funds from switzerland. santander declined to comment. bnp says the bank has not been protected by the spanish authorities in relation to any investigation. hsbc is to record a pretax charge of $585 million for
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settling a 14-year-old lawsuit about allegations that investors were misled. the case involved agencies acquisitions, for more than $15 billion. investors claim the company and three executives made misleading statements about mortgage lending. finance unit has now agreed to a $1.5 billion deal to resolve the litigation. two of the most well-known names in cosmetics are teaming up. revlon is buying elizabeth arden for about $870 million, paying $14 a chair, a 38% premium from wednesday's close. bank of america and citigroup are committing about $2.5 million to help pay for the acquisition and refinance elizabeth arden's debt. oracle sales beat estimates on the back of cloud-based products, as fourth-quarter revenue was at $10.6 billion.
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that is a decline of about 1% from a year ago. will see aects it bigger boost from the cloud, forecasting a jump of 80% in cloud-based sales. shares rose and extend trading. and that is your bloomberg business flash. anna? anna: haslinda amin there. it is day two of the saint petersburg economic forum. ryan chilcote is there. ryan: i do not mine. good morning, and a. i am joined by jean-francois de caux, the largest outdoor advertising company. he is big in russia and around the world. including the u.k., which is where will begin the conversation. you wake up, i know you live in london, on the 24th, you discover that the u.k. has voted to exit. the european union. you have a hundred 50 employees in britain. what do you do? jean-francois: at decaux we are
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combining the british entrepreneur real spirit with the french nativity and the german engineering perfection. got you. i have been living for london for more than 25 years. my children go to british universities. we are the outdoor advertising capital of the world, by converting 1000 advertising panels. interdigital. and no doubt, that if the brexit vote wins, we will have to reconsider our position in the u.k., in terms of this major investment we are currently undertaking. ryan: moving jobs out of the u.k.? jean-francois: i am not saying that. but there is no doubt there will be a slowdown in consumption. because it has already started. the uncertainty is for the consumer to make a decision in terms of houses and car sales.
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and april was very soft because all media, including television and outdoor as well, was pretty flat in the u.k. and may is a bit better. we can still feel the uncertainty in the advertising demand. ryan: these are companies normally placing ads not placing ads with you because they're concerned about consumer spending. if ther biggest concern u.k. to leave the european union is what? jean-francois: basically the gdp contraction in the u.k. and the pound in the fall of sterling. ryan: do you see any deals, you know, i know you are very inquisitive, sort of following -- with a become less attractive if the u.k. to exit the european union? jean-francois: it is a big question. and it is hard to predict what will be the future. london for me has become the capital of europe, in many, many
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industries, not only in finance but in advertising. and the question is whether london would retain that position. london is booming. a .5 million people, going to be 9 million people in about 10 years from now. it is going by 150,000 people a year. which is tremendous. and now, whether this will still be the case after a brexit vote, i do not know. as far as we are concerned, we can see our customers being very, very cautious about future investment. and that will impact the industry as well. brexit, howdo get a concerned are you that we going to see a domino effect? we have a candidate, a politician in france, saying exits, weif the u.k. can have our own referendum. if the sump and you are worried about?
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i know you think that the u.k. leaves the anglo-saxon spirit, in order for the eu to be better, but are you about open a pandora's box? jean-francois: it could potentially have a trigger effect on some other countries. but it will certainly also pave the way for a breakup of the united kingdom. to vote inre likely favor of remaining in the eu. would that mean that there will be another scottish referendum, probably yes? so, the breakup of the u.k. i think the writing is on the wall, the brexit is going to happen. and that would be a shame, i think. ryan: i mention the french politician. we also have strikes in france. how do you think president france walrond has done? jean-francois: he is trying to reform. my country is quite difficult to reform, both the welfare system, the quality of life in france is
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second to none. but we cannot afford this kind of public services anymore. we need to save money. and this is part of the adjustment, it is hard for the french people. and remember, that about 20% of the workforce in france is working, either directly or indirectly, for the state. which is twice the amount of germany and the u.k. we have a huge public sector. ryan: we had just 20 seconds. tell me business in russia versus pre-oil bust? jean-francois: we are very strong, the economy is still struggling given the oil price and also the european sanctions, but we are benefiting from the consolidation of the market, especially in moscow, where some of our local competitors could not pay the rent to the city of moscow, which is at a predictable given the fact that they overpaid in 2013. and now, those companies went
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bust. as result of them going bust -- ryan: we're going to have to leave it there. jean-francois decaux, right there. we will have more coverage from st. petersburg international economic forum. stay with us. ♪
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anna: welcome back. 6:30 in london. 7:30 in paris or frank for. let us get the bloomberg for news. haslinda: anna, both sides of the eu referendum debate has suspended campaigns for a second day, after the killing of an mp. labor politician jo cox after being shot and stabbed, died, after meeting her constituency. a 32-year-old man has been arrested. she was a committed member of the remain camp, and witnesses say the killer shouted britain leaves. britain first as the night any involvement in the killing.
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and david cameron has led tributes. this isnister cameron: absolutely tragic and dreadful news. i spoke with jo's husband brendan, the two children, and the wider family. we lost a great start. she was a great campaigning mp, with a huge compassion and heart, and people are going to be very, very sad and what has happened. dreadful, dreadful news. haslinda: japan's finance minister has escalated his concern about a surge in the end, calling for coordination with the g7 counterparts to address what he described as the moves in the currency market. he spoke just before government and boj officials met in tokyo to exchange information. slip,mments saw the yen but it is still in 014 territory. vermont senator bernie sanders has told reporters he will take
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on a new role in the effort to defeat donald trump and the president election. it is the closest he has come to conceding that hillary clinton will clinch the democratic nomination at the party convention next month. senator sanders: i look forward in the coming weeks to continued discussion between the two campaigns. to make certain that your voices are heard, and that the democratic party passes the most progressive platform in its history. and that democrats actually fight for that agenda. haslinda: a growing number of prominent u.s. operations are asking to drop or scale back sponsorship of the republican national convention. wells fargo, ups, motorola, j.p. morgan chase, and ford all dropped out. none would say whether the nomination of donald trump was a factor. some top elected officials are also skipping next months meeting in cleveland, after
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warning of large-scale protest. and pimco is cutting jobs. the company is losing 68 positions or about 3% of the workforce in the dividend interest strategy team. falling. saw abruptlyill gross left in 2014. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 or less and more around thereaus world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg top . amin, thank you. asian stocks have rebounded in today's trading session. and the pound has slowdown, and the oil snapped a six-game losing three. nejra> ? nejra: reducing to have a little bit of risk appetite creeping back into the market. asian stocks are rebounding from a three-week low. that is the msci asia-pacific index. we are seeing japan rebounding
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from a four-month low. big rally,tty advancing across the region with chinese stocks gaining as well. of course, we did hear the dreadful news of the murder of mp jo cox. it means the campaigning around the eu referendum continues to be suspended. but one thing showing the markets is there seems to be speculation that britons will be less inclined to vote leave. you can see here, and i know you already show the start earlier in our, but the odds check of ability coming down. therefore sterling rebounding towards the end of the chart. last time i checked, we were .142, and less demand for safe haven. we are seeing 10-year yields higher, treasuries as well, another sign of that risk appetite. but the yen retreating from the highest levels since 2014.
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we about unchanged on that at the moment. $104.38. but we did see more of the retreat earlier after comments from the finance manager showing his concern about the recent surge in the yen. now a commodity markets, what we are seeing is oil and copper rebounding. that is actually pulling up the multicurrency, like the norwegian kroner and the aussie dollar. you might be forgiven for thinking yes, on that risk appetite is back. except, and this is a great chart, and i know your chart of the hour will take this further, gold has jumped to the most expensive relative to copper since 2009. it is an important ratio. in other words, one indicator of recession. manus, anna? anna: thank you very much. just me this morning. nejra, very interesting to see the gold price still moving higher in this morning's session. despite the fact that we are seeing a bit more risk appetite today in the market. funds back by silver have fund
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to a record, as they see a rest. that is the subject of our chart. and here with us is new anchor el-din.ast yousef: alexander dryden is the with us. talk us through your chart. yousef: good morning, anna. the search for safety still very much in progress here, as central banks for the most part have decided to sit on the sidelines. and brexit obviously weigh heavily as well. one way they have been seeking shelter, those assets, those holdings have reached record highs. year to date you are looking at 7.3% and increase so far this year. we put that up for you on a you can really get some context and a better perspective as to what this really means. so we put the chart for the silver holdings of their. and reference point, we also added the u.s. treasury yield graph. you can see that the two cross
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on march 16. and that is, anna, when the u.s. fed announced it would leave benchmark interest rates unchanged, and also lowered its economic forecast. so that really sets the tone for the momentum that came thereafter. and very much diversified outlook forward. anna: what has silver been doing in relation to gold and other precious metals? i think they're both moving higher in the morning trading session. any thoughts there? alexander: silver has been the best-performing precious metal so far this year. outperforming gold, platinum, palladium as well. you are looking at 25%, compared to gold that is 20% so far this year. really making a comeback, as far as a precious metals play. even compared to some of the months to date figures, gold ahead of all the peers, 9% so far this month. and a quick note from bmo, they
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said that silver is to continue to move higher, as negative sentiments surrounding industrial demand he's somewhat, especially do to outperformance of the steel sector. we will keep a close eye on this asset class and see whether it will continue the momentum from here. anna: yousef, in with a look there. new anchor of bloomberg markets: middle east. a look at precious metal. alexander dryden still with us. your thoughts on precious metals, gold, silver? even as we saw investors, stock markets recovering from february lows during march, april, the entire spring period, even as we saw that we saw continued appetite for some of the texts eight havens like precious metals. and that has warning signs attached. alexander: i think for me, gold and silver and precious metals have gone for a bit of a step change. what has happened is that -- what used to happen in safe haven assets, use the gold gold,
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silver, government bonds in search of safety. and the best thing about government bonds was that used to be some yield, finding a harbor to park in the clouds lifted. now if you park yourself and global government bonds, 40% of them are yielding in negative territory. meaning you take a loss if you park your cash in there for the time being. this is actually increasing the attractiveness of holding golden civil. in my never like any income, but you don't produce any losing either. that is a structural change going forward, which until his negative yield environment -- ises, will still be still feel gold will increasingly become the asset of choice for investors to go to in times of stress. anna: yes, how strong the gold price get? as of late we have seen gold lifted companies in london doing very well, times where investors are nervous and the gold price is doing well. where are we now on the gold price?
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$1283, i've seen people talking about 1350. alexander: definitely would be a lot of momentum, especially if we vote to leave. there will be a strong move, and we can expect gold to rally form rom there. you will need to never the gold rally will reverse, as the situation becomes clear. but there could definitely be some big upward momentum. and there is already been a big strong year-to-date for gold price. anna: let's talk about the rest of the commodities, this may be has applications for the u.k. equity story, i was interested to read that the brexit vote next thursday is very important for equities, but the weighting of commodities, still a strong waiting even the commodities are not as strong as they were five years ago. the fact that you are saying commodities are actually going to have more of an impact on commodity prices from where we go in the brexit
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debate. alexander: i really feel year today is a story about commodity shaping the u.k. landscape. and one of the things we have been doing, 18% of the 5100 is the area of choice for anyone trying to play the rally that we have seen year today. and it is down significant late. the index used to be closer to 30%. at the height of the financial crisis, but it has fallen quite sharply. it is still significantly higher than other countries, say japan for example, only about a 6% and commodities there. you still take the favored asset to be playing this commodity recovery. anna: and where do we stand on valuation? the oil price flirting recently with $50. we have seen percentages with a very strong rally in oil prices, down from those low 30 numbers. what is the evaluation? alexander: valuations of the msci world energy companies with about 18 times at the end of
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last year. as a last week, it was closer to 30. you can see there is already been a significant rally in the price. but we have yet to see the recovery in commodities, filtering down to earnings, which is making the valuations look quite stretched at the moment. for anyone looking to get into the commodities rally, i think maybe playing it directly to the net for resources companies, you may have missed the boat for the time being. actually, you might want to take a step back and see if the commodity rally is a flash in the pan, wait for the estimates before coming on board. anna: how quickly do prices react in the sector? we have the experience where prices collapse, to gauge that, how quickly -- how much of a collapse in profit and how much of a rebound? alexander: i think one of the most important things to bear in mind for the moment is that they will not be moving as one homogenous block going forward. some of these countries have great pricing power.
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and they're able to pass on the rise in commodities quickly to the end consumer. think about the energy market in particular. how quickly petrol can respond. there are other parts of the market, thinking more on the industrial metal side of things, where they have not ingested as much as the other companies. supply, especially in steel, that is going to keep prices low for a while. so as much as a believe that the commodity bear market is closing to the beginning, what you will see going forward here is that a bit of an emergent commodity pricing. and from areas of the market behaving quite differently. anna: thank you very much. alex dryden from jb morgan state with us. riskst, how rising credit are making it hard to get u.s. dollar funding. that is next. ♪
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anna: welcome back to countdown. 6:46 in london.
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1:46 friday morning if you're watching in new york. we could see a bit of a bounce in the equities market when we start trading over there in new york. we have a big european session to get through first. let us get the bloomberg business flash. here is haslinda. haslinda: a former goldman sachs banker who pleaded guilty to receiving documents that have been leaked from the federal reserve new york has been banned from the financial industry. yuri has been barred by the sec for any association with a broker, advisor, or securities dealer. bitter, was a leading up to the acquisitions of macro software that is accorded to people familiar with the matter. they say salesforce was advised by goldman sachs in negotiations, but microsoft won out. the software giant this week unveiled plans to buy linkedin for $26.2 billion in cash, the biggest deal in the company's
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history. spanish authorities are said to be investigating santander employees, amid allegations they helped customers even a taxes. according to a person familiar with the probe, officials are examining whether the bank told hsbc to transfer from spain to switzerland. santander declined to comment. beensaid the bank has not contacted by the spanish authorities in relation to any investigation. hsbc is to record a pretax million for85 settling a 14-year-old lawsuit about allegations that investigators were misled. the case involved agent acquisitions of household international for more than $15 billion. the bank inherited the suit where investors claimed three executives made misleading statements about mortgage lending. hsbc's finance unit has now
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agreed to a $1.5 billion deal to resolve the litigation. well-known names in cosmetics are teaming up. revlon is buying elizabeth arden for about $875 million, paying $14 a chair which is a 30% premium from wednesday's close. bank of america and citigroup have committed about $2.5 billion to help pay for the acquisition and refinance elizabeth arden's debt. oracle sales beat estimates on the back of cloud-based products, with fourth-quarter revenue at $10.6 billion. that is the decline of about 1% from a year ago. oracle predicts it will see a bigger boost from the cloud period, forecasting a jump as much as 80% and cloud-based sales. shares rose in extended trading. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna? anna: thanks very much. making it harder for big banks to obtain funding amidst the
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growing concern of brexit. nejra joins us with a chart. nejra: yeah, some are saying quite recently that one place where we were not seeing a brexit stress showing was in the money market. but it looks not anymore. i have the gauge of bank borrowing costs. it hit the most extreme level since 2012. just yesterday, on thursday. and you know this latest bout of turmoil also illustrating how regulation changes that came after the financial crisis are leading to great volatility in times of stress. because banks face higher costs to make markets, and they're not stepping in to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. this leads to bigger prices. look at the spread. but i will also took about dollar funding. it is harder for big banks to obtain u.s. dollar funding. this is of course important because of dollars dominance
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status and global invoicing. and the outside share of dollar-denominated assets in global investment portfolios. this shows the cost to swap other currency into dollars, nearing crisis levels. in fact, this premium reach the highest since late last year. you see towards the end of the chart. we are looking at the average cost to swap euros, sterling, yen, and swiss francs for three months. there was a scarcity of dollars during the lehman brothers crisis, not saying we get to those levels, but it is coming to keep an eye and watch on. the question is what is what is all this? a lot of people saying it will be the central banks, because now they have these unlimited lines, that will put a bound on how bad things can get. anna? anna: nejra, thank you. alex dryden from jpmorgan is still with us. next thursday, are you concerned
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about money market stress? suggesting it is starting to do, central banks are always keep point out the tools they have to swap lines, the tools to coordinate action the undertake. are you concerned about money market stress? alexander: i think for me, there will be volatility in this asset. if in the event we vote to leave. but the bank of the wind has been quite adamant that will be in the market within hours, saying we will extend the credit lines of serried to keep liquidity, very loose allowing people to continue to trade, minimizing volatility. investors do have expect big base movement. the pound will be volatility, as there is other exchange rates are lucky to be impacted. you see many global impactors that is in the u k but even japan and the u.s. pointed to the brexit referendum as a cause for significant volatility in the next weeks. anna: i want to move on to talk about japan in fact, because the concerns about a brexit or
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market turmoil around the possibility of a brexit is another headache the japanese perhaps did not want. try to limit gains in the currency. of course we see them coming out trying to talk down the yen perhaps overnight. i have a chart your chose apb yield. this might make you sad, alex. suggesting that the pace we are seeing yields declining in japan, but also other developed markets, at this pace 40 year yields will hit zero in about two months, according to this chart. lending money for negative interest rates at a 40 year timer eisen, does that sound sustainable? alexander: it does not. and this is one of the challenges of the bank of japan has been facing. is that they are approaching the limits of what they can do. the are already buying ¥80 trillion worth of assets overall. they have gone into negative interest rates, in order to stability economy. they reached the limits of where they can reasonably go. the next step is for abenomics,
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the other two arrows that he talked about in 2012, need to start hitting the target. you need to see structural reform, you need to see fiscal stimulus. the bank of japan has graded an environment in which the government can go to the market and issued debt in negative territory. and a market will buy off of them. now that is a good environment to go out there and borrow money, try to stability economy through some sort of old-school keynesian style investment. and try and boost the economy that way. but right now, though structural reforms, the we have just not been seeing them. anna: we have a chart that shows expectations for the imf expectations run the global growth story. it looks pretty sluggish. we talked about the reasons behind this and the u.k. context about productivity. also adding in japan's experience in the aging population question also a big factor. central banks need to do something. talking about the other actors,
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the options, etc. are they out of ideas are they genuinely -- alexander: i think you are seeing increasing calls around the world, particularly when the most vocal is mario draghi in europe saying that we have cut interest rates into negative territory. we are buying as much as we can. you guys in the fiscal side need to do something or stimulate the economy. unfortunately, many governments have come to power off the back of austerity promises. and have promises to cut debt and spending, and they are reluctant, going back on the promises, back into the market and borrowing more, despite the fact that the ecb have driven yields to incredible low territory. german bund now certain below zero. it could essentially go to the market and borrow negative interest rates disability economy. but central banks, still a couple more options potentially, you hear the term helicopter money floating around. however, they are approaching
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the limit. there is also a question here about how much further they can go, whether or not they would do lasting damage if they go much further. how easy it would be for them to reverse the policy. anna: governor kuroda saying they would not do a after money yesterday. we have some guests saying we are close to helicopter money, something close already conducted by super pacs around the world. do you see that already in evidence? alexander: there are some signs of my the creeping in places like japan, stealth helicopter money, heading out vouchers. anna: they will not call it that. alexander: they will not. but one of the things i'm interested by, actually the impact that some people are promising, if you are disordered drop money into the bank accounts, that they are promising, what it could look like, one of my concerns is that actually, i think people would end up saving it. you see it in the u.s. they have not spent big savings on oil revenue. they will end up saving it.
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in what sort of world we end up? alexander: the business after site we are seeing. alex dryden from jpmorgan. we will continue this discussion. b, will talk to the oc next. ♪
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>> we lost a great star. she was a great campaign him p with great compassion and a big heart. people are going to be very sad. anna: eu referendum campaigns are suspended following the murder of remain camp supporter, jo cox. asian stocks rebound from a three-week low with reduced expectations of a brexit. currency concerns. japan's finance minister calls the g-7 coronation -- coordination. ♪
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anna: welcome to "countdown." i am anna edwards. he just suggests where we will open up on this equity trading day. an hour until we get the start. we have seen a return of a risk appetite, a bit of a reassessment after the killing of the mp jo cox. if we have a look at the futures and see what they are telling us. we are going to move higher in euro stoxx. count -- on the keck on the cac. markets are reevaluating expectations around a brexit. polling data -- has been withheld. campaigning is being suspended on both sides and -- as we said in our headlines.
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let's bring up risk radar to see how other assets have been moving. a slight return of risk appetite, up by .5%. the u.s. dollar against the japanese currency fairly flat. the japanese finance minister trying to talk down the currency a little bit. he calls the moves and fx markets, disorderly. some in the u.s. do not agree. we have heard that. let's note the oil price, also moving higher. day losingping a six streak. the bond markets, let's check in as they open up here in europe. what is that doing to the bond market? higher. slight yield the 10 year bund in there. we are seeing a move higher in
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yields. a little bit reduced appetite for the fixed income products, linking in with that slight return of risk appetite and more demand for equities. let's get first word news. >> anna, both sides of the eu referendum debate has suspended their campaign for a second day, after the killing of an mp. jo cox died after being shot and stabbed as she met voters in a west yorkshire constituency. a 52-year-old man has been arrested she was a committed member of the remain camp and a witness says the killer shouted "britain first." killing -- anyny involvement in the killing. cooks this is absolutely tragic and dreadful news. my thoughts -- >> this is absolutely tragic and dreadful news. my thoughts are with her husband . we lost a great star. she was an mp with huge
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compassion and a big heart. people are going to be very sad at what has happened. dreadful news. senator.g bernie sanders has told supporters that he will take on a new role in an effort to defeat donald trump and the upcoming election. hillary clinton will clinch the democratic nomination at the party convention next month. >> i look forward in the coming weeks to continue discussion between the two campaigns to make sure certain that your voices are heard and that the credit party has -- that the democratic party has the most progressive -- and they fight for that agenda. >> a growing number of prominent u.s. corporations are asking scale back the sponsorship of
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the republican national convention. they include wells fargo, motorola, j.p. morgan chase and ford, all which sponsored the 20 12th convention. none would say whether the nomination of donald trump -- trump told elected officials that skipping next month's meeting after warnings of large-scale protest. -- is cutting jobs. their dividend income strategy team. 25%e seen assets fall like in the last three years. --ounder -- the cofounder before leaving abruptly in 2014. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . .nna: haslinda, thank you japan's finance minister has
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escalated his concerns about the surge in the japanese currency. he calls for coordination with his g-7 counselor to adjust what he calls disorderly moves. kevin joins us from tokyo for more details. great to have you on the program. he had some initial success and talking down the currency earlier on. not last kevin: he did get a pop, a knee-jerk reaction, about a 0.5% move. when you look at what his comments were, there is nothing new in them. he repeated the same thing that he said several times before. the really -- what he brought in at this time was that he would seek backing from other members of the g-7. as we have seen the u.s. has been very strong in its position , that the bar is very high for
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moves to be judged as one-sided and highly volatile. the u.s. has not been keen to back any type of intervention i've aged hand side -- intervention by the japan side. we have to hear from the u.s. side before we can expect some real effect on the exchange rate market. anna: if you are looking for coordination -- cooperation, we would not -- we would have to see some very different words than what we have heard recently at those gatherings in japan. he refrained from an additional easing. what was behind that? going into that decision, this was yesterday. going into that decision, it wasn't as if one is percent of there was believed going to be in easing, so why did they move so much? kevin: there was expectation in the market.
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a quarter of analysts saw easing this week. there were more than 50% of people saying asked -- seeing, expecting action in july. very near-term action is building. the expectation is building in the market. the yonder that, i think when you going to these risk events, traders don't want to get called out on the wrong side of the trade. it was kind of a green light to continue buying yen when the boj refrained from taking action. brexit has been the really big globally.the markets the yen is no exception. it is the best-performing currency worldwide this month. it is much more likely that brexit polls will move the yen than comments a by -- comments by japanese officials. anna: kevin, thank you very much . the global economy is stuck in a low growth track.
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.o says the oecd we are joined by the chief economist, catherine mann. to have you on the program. talk about -- catherine mann. good to have you on the program. the growth numbers are clicked to see. -- do you give denmark's to who do you give good marks to? catherine: the european economy as a whole, they are the best performers in terms of increasing their growth rates over the last couple of years. the issue is we are concerned that the growth rates that we see under 2% for most of the economies, except for the periphery, ireland and spain, that these growth rates are not going to be sufficient in order the europeane union ford.
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under 2%, you are not going to be up to pay for the pensions for the old people. you are not going to be in a position to provide jobs for the young people. we see that as a high jobless rate for youth. we get concerned that policymakers are going to look at that trend in the growth rates from below one points -- 1% to 1.7% -- they are going to look at that and say we don't have to make any changes to our economic policies. there have been changes made in the past with the periphery and the crisis. performance is an ongoing process and we have seen the ambit did -- we have seen the ambition scale back since 2011 good what we need to do is wrap it up again -- 2011. what we need to do is rampant up again. -- ramp it up again. anna: what the governor is trying to do is certain things. he has seen a lot of resistance. france is a scattered
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process. saidead of france strategy -- which means it is very small steps. the problem is at the end of the step process, the pension or labor market is significantly reformed. citizens feel much worse. when we think about a big bang, like a reform strategy which is what the germans did 10 years ago, compared to this drip strategy in france, it looks sold, well packaged, well to citizens that that is a better strategy in order to get reforms done. it is not the strategy that seems to have been taken in france, even though over the trajectory of 10 years, little steps gets them places. maybe the country's to do different strategies. the issues they need to? -- they need to tackle, for example
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services in germany. these are very big issues for germany and would really help its ok breakout of growth. it is not good enough to pay those pensions for the old people. with france, it is much more of a labor market. anna: when we talk about the u.k., i spoke to j.p. morgan asset. we talked about low productivity which happens in the u.s. as well good what will the u.k. do -- as well and what will the well? to tackle that as when we look at the productivity puzzle, we have a couple of different dimensions. this is across the global set of firms. it is reflected in the individual economies. that is there are also companies that are very productive. they are very innovative.
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they pay their workers whole lot. then there is everybody else in an economy. they tend to be very low productivity firms and they do not pay their workers well at all. we have that dispersion in productivity and wages. our question is what do we do in order to enhance productivity at the low end? both inthe investment, the united states and u.k. and in the euro area, investment is an important ingredient in getting productivity to the enhanced. it is been sluggish in the u.k. and europe. investment is the first key and the second one is to open up for more competition, more resource reallocation. that is a nice way of saying we have to have more firms enter and exit. getting firms to exit means banks to not have forbearance,
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big problem on the continent here is bank for barrett's nonperforming loans giving money forbearance, bank nonperforming loans giving money to them. anna: -- a reduced level of -- thereforeor there is one factor that weighs on wages. the you buy into that theory? -- do you buy into that theory? dispersion, some wages have skyrocketed in some sectors while the rest have been flat or gone down. that is true across europe, u.k., canada. we have two things we have to work with, one is at the individual worker level, we need to talk about skill matching. that is about retraining and also for the current workforce
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and getting people out of school with the right skills. it is also the issue of bargaining within the firm. collective bargaining across an entire economy and create some rigidity and differences across different sectors. it can be a problem but bargaining within the firm can distribution of wages within the firm and firms across sectors. that is part of it. there is another issue, and that is at the end of the day, there is going to be wage dispersion within economies. we call it market income. in other words, before taxes. over the last 20 years, the role of the tax entrance -- tax and transfer system to redistribute income from the market, down to what people actually get into their pockets, disposable income, that this seems to not be working as well. what we are doing is trying to
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analyze to what extent countries and there's a lyrical systems -- and their political systems have chosen not to use in the past. that is maybe in the united states and u.k.. maybe those systems don't work as well on populations that we have. that may be the case in europe. a lot more work to understand the nature of how the economy .orks and how it is working anna: the central bank is trying to encourage businesses to invest, keeping interest rates low. are you in the camp that says negative interest rates are a necessary evil for the global economy? or deed think they are doing more harm than good because they weigh on bank profits? we do look at the question of negative interest rates relative to bank profits. it is true that bank profits -- especially at equity prices -- equity prices have not really curated. interest rates are not really
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the story. there are a lot of other issues in regard to banks. the lack of demand in the economy at -- economy and the ban on loans -- lack of demand on loans. the package of what we call --pperheads of policies." comprehensive policies." the structure and functioning of banks in terms of allocating credit. these all have to be working together. they have to be comprehensive, coherent. we are arguing that and noted to get the economy out of the low growth trap which is where we are into something that is a faster growth for percent of the group global level, it has to be -- to the global level, it has to be apprehensive. -- it has to be comprehensive. monetary policy cannot work alone. anna: it is good to see you. catherine mann, chief economist.
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7:17 here in london. up next, we will return to one of our main stories this morning. campaigners on both sides take timeout following the killing of the labor mp. we will have the latest.
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anna: the remaining -- the main groups on both sides of the debate in the u.k. have theended their campaign -- bank of england's mark carney paid tribute to the 41-year-old where he was attending dinner last night. tribute that this room, this city and country can give to the memory of jo cox is to renew our shared commitment, whatever our differences, to promote the common good in the
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united kingdom and the world. anna: let's bring in simon kennedy. mylles.e him, richard simon, bring us up-to-date it we are going to get less meetings around the brexit, the developments over the coming days because the campaign has been suspended. simon: campaigning suspended. mark carney shortened his speech last night. david cameron [indiscernible] the imf which delayed the report will announce its report or findings on brexit overnight. a couple of polls have been delayed. today everyone -- [indiscernible] trajectory in the polls was clear to see in recent days. thencreasing mood toward move camp -- toward the leave
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camp. directionhe travel of -- the direction of travel. groupsthe progress that enjoy some of that sentiment yesterday. anna: let's bring you, richard. -- marketsbe moving move based on polling data. we have been talking about the odds and how we are seeing around the tragic events, we've seen the odds of changing. we have seen the pounds moving. we have seen the assets reap prizing things -- assets repricing things. there are shortcomings in what they are doing. richard: in some ways it is extra ordinary that we place so much emphasis on the polls given how they have been [indiscernible] and not just in the last year but also in the referendum. you can look the 1995 quebec referendum on independence. the final polls were saying like
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a 6% lead or independence. it ended up being close to 1%. we may be overplayed the polls a little bit. they can be very useful for building in the analysis of the landscape. as we get closer to crunch time, it increasingly can be a reflection in the polls. if you put -- anna: when you talk to the polls about shortcomings in their methodology, do they have the right things to compare two, their knowledge the shortcomings. you point to the betting odds and use it many markets are looking to that instead. they say they are based on our polls anyway. simon:'s ceo was in recently he was talking about money and they reckon if you are putting money at stake, it is a better
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estimate. anna: you took of the example of canada and scotland and i have had a few guests talking about how things often look close until a week out, then you start to have this move toward a risk aversion. is that something you expect to see? >> that is something we do expect. history suggests as you get close to crunch time, a lot have been flirting with the idea preferred the less risky option. i think the evidence of the a move backyou see to the status quo option. the polls themselves typically seem to underrepresented the status quote support, as well, by 5%. at this stage for the outcome to be confident at winning, they probably need to be 8 -- eight to 10 points ahead. they are really not in the
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territory where they can become to bow and anna: can the markets give us a clue -- where they can become comfortable. anna: can the markets give us a clue? volatility in the pounds and how much yields go up. how much did that gives a clue where we could end up? the editor of bloomberg noted that if you look at the longer-term trades and options in volatility, the markets are looking for the remain camp to win this week. the short-term looks great if you look toward the end of the year and beyond. it is less volatility. a lot of signals for markets. maybe there are some for the remains as well. published -- we published on thursday.
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anna: richard, thank you for joining us. that is it for "countdown." a rise in equity markets in about a half hour time.
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♪ looking to on the move. 7:30 in london. where county down to the european open. i'm guy johnson alongside matt miller. he is in berlin. this is what we are watching did the killing of labor mp, jo cox, silences both sides. markets stabilize as campaigning is a suspended. herbal intervention. japanese finance minister escalates government records about the strengthening of the yen. how long before markets demand actions rather than words.


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