tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg June 20, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
are 30 minutes away from the end of the monday trading day in your. you are watching the european close on "bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: we are going to take you from new york to london in the next hour. here is what we are watching today. we are seeing i a rally in the u.s. and europe today. brexit driving with the remain camp leading. vonnie: just three days away and campaigning for brexit has resumed. david cameron says the leave camp is trying to deceive voters. a big win for the heroes of flash boys. after month of delays, the group secns approval from the to become the 13th official stock exchange. check out where european
equities are faring at the end of the month. look at the gm function. -- themacro movers equity benchmarks in europe. ireland up 4%, netherlands up 3%. the ftse 100 up 3%. you get the gist. now iss the momentum for with the remain camp. the first two polls after the tragic death of jo cox shows the remain camp is ahead with just three days to go before the referendum. the biggest game for the stoxx 600 since august last year. look at sterling up by 2.3%, the biggest gain since 2000. we have seen some huge moves in the sovereign debt market. the greek two-year yield is down by 3.2%. portuguese two-year yields down by three basis points. credit default swaps are soaring.
we are seeing commodities rally today. it is very much a risk on rally today. what i've done is i have listed sterling against all 31 of its major peers. is risingurrency against the pound today, the south african rand, albeit by .15%. the japanese yen by 2.5% today. earlier, sterling rising as much as 2.2% against the u.s. dollar. that is the biggest move since 2008. do not forget that on thursday before the death of jo cox, we had sterling fall to 140 against the dollar. it is rising and has risen as high as 145 today. what about implied volatility? expectations of swings in sterling in the next week. you know what happened on
friday. we saw expectations for volatility rising the most ever, 132% -- the biggest ever intraday rise in volatility and it was the highest ever as well. we have come down a little bit today, down by 23%, the most since december. it is all happening today when it comes to risk assets. want to move away and tell you about one of the interesting individual stories we are focusing on. he italian lender is accelerating its search for a successor. it may draw up a short list as soon as this week, according to people familiar with the matter. the former sao paulo chief executive is also being considered for the role according to the people. shares of unicredit have dropped by 70% since may 24 when he
announced he was ready to step down. these are the three banking players and italy in the last 12 months. unicredit has fallen by 60%. let us check out the performance at the u.s. market desk. julie hyman is standing by. has it looking? julie: it's not quite up as much as the european stock market, but the rally is the largest in three weeks time. all three averages rising to the highs of the session. nasdaq up 1.7%. still not approaching the record levels we were getting close to a couple weeks ago for the s&p 500, but nonetheless approaching 2100 here. it is a pretty broad-based rally as well. the interest sensitive groups are in the red, however, utilities and telecoms are seen yields rising united states. industrials and materials and all the economically sensitive or cyclical groups are rising today.
individual movers that we are watching include boeing. bloomberg news reporting that the company is nearing of $4 billion deal with russia's largest airfreight company with an order of 747s. it would be an extension of an existing order. that jet has been on the wane in terms of demand. that would be a little bit of an extension of its life. that stock is up by 3%, helping boost the dow. we're looking at lending club after china's media raised the stake in the company to about 15%. as we know, it has been sharply down since the departure of the ceo. of the auto parts retailer rising after carl icahn raised his bid for the company to eight dollars a share from seven dollars. he is only try to buy the 18% the company he does not already own. it looks like maybe some speculation built in there that he would raise his bid even
more. in commodity, want to get a quick check on the divergence of oil and gold. gold rising along with risk assets -- oil, i should say, rising along with risk assets. gold futures are heading lower as people are moving out of havens to. day. you some mark looking at how the pound has been doing. the dollar index has been down for the the fourth straight session, down another 6/10 of 1% today. vonnie: julie, thank you. let's check in on the first word news this morning. taylor riggs has more. taylor: david cameron is trying to rename the initiative as the brexit campaign enters its last few days. cameron is trying to capitalize on a swing in momentum back to the remain camp. he accused his opponents about lying on immigration. the former mayor of london says cameron has nothing new to offer
voters. the vote on the eu is this thursday. there has been a shakeup at the campaign of donald trump. campaign manager corey lewandowski is out. there wastaffers say growing tensions between him and campaign manager parliamenul lewandorf. he grabbed a woman's arm at a campaign event. prosecutors decided against filing charges. on supreme court deciding bans on assault rifles like the ones used in the orlando massacre. sticking on that on capitol hill, senate republicans are expected to block to democratic proposals to expand background checks of gun sales for suspected terrorists. they say the amendments threatened the rights of gun owners.
their owned alternative, the democrats are expected to block those. in cleveland, they waited for 52 years. lebron james led the cavaliers to a 93-89 win over golden state in game seven of the mva finals. it is the first major title in sports since 1964. to win it, they had to battle back from a 3-1 deficit. no team had ever done that in the finals. the broadcast was the highest rated sports event on that network and its sports channel, espn, in 10 years. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world, i am taylor riggs. mark: market thanks to his easing. sterling rallying the most since sinceclimbing above $1.47 may 23 on signs of the remain
camp is gaming momentum. let's bring in the managing director at credit. it's an incredible turnaround. thursday before the tragic death of jo cox, it was rally. our investors calling it prematurely? >> what i want to highlight here is that we are dealing with very illiquid markets could the . that fact that we are seeing the moves after only one poll, and that tomorrow we will see another poll results out, we will need a confirmation of that trend in the polls. a huge run of polls that were favoring the brexit camp. it just slows down that momentum. valentin: where we were last
week where the markets were running record sterling shorts and liquidity has been getting poorer and poorer because most of the clients we talked to and we mentioned brexit, not many very clients want to trade in the run-up to the referendum. the fact is that liquidity is going to deteriorate further from here. it's a combination of those two factors -- obviously the tragic death played a role, but the fact is that the market was very short on the pound and the market is very illiquid. is moves that we saw to me not a sign of confidence coul it's . it's a sign of a liquidity. move.d not chase the i would wait for the other poll released tomorrow. hopefully appoints that we are dealing with a trend of reversal in voter cinnamon. until that is the case however, investors should remain very cautious. the gains that we are seeing
today may very well turn to losses just because the markets are so illiquid. vonnie: give us the range that you would look for friday or next monday if there is a leave or a stay. are we looking at 150, 120? what are the marks that you are looking at? valentin: these are obviously ba ballpark figures, but the numbers you mentioned are fairly reasonable. are targets for cable could brexitbe in the event of 127 as a more immediate target. given the poor liquidity and the fact that brexit will drain liquidity further, we cannot dismiss moves on the downside. indeed if you believe that what is happening in the market at the moment is a prelude of what is to come on friday, 150.
152 is our target for cable in the event that the u.k. does remain in the eu. from that point of view, what i want to highlight is certain asymmetric payouts. we do expect the pound to sell off much more in the event of brexit than we expected to gain in the event of remain. vonnie: what about the euro? a lot of money has been leaving the euros. we are looking at the euro at 113 and change right now. regardless of the brexit vote, where does the euro trade in the next month or two? valentin: we remain long-term bearish just because the euro will be increasingly used in funding currency. that is given the overall global outlook, which we still expect to show signs of slowing down. there is potential tightening and the global monetary
conditions and that means that risk aversion cannot be excluded. the euro will continue to do well during those bouts. those conflicting drivers make us fairly balanced to somewhat bearish for the euro-dollar. on the whole, euro sterling mayfair somewhat different we believe the brexit will be avoided and that makes us fairly bullish on the second half of the. year. it is a balanced to bearish outlook for the euro-dollar. mark: where else do we witness a relief rally? on which currencies? valentin: clearly the european currencies. the scandinavian currencies were selling off quite sharply. we do not think it belongs at 930 or at the levels that we are seeing at the moment. we think a good trade to express
recovery in sentiment would to go long. it may indeed extend some of those gains, but the problem with that is once the dust settles and brexit is avoided, investors will again focus on continuing evidence of a slowdown in china. european smaller currencies like the likes of the swedish crown might be one of the best ways to express any constructive view. what i want to highlight is the fact that the dollar is still quite attractive with the fact that brexit concerns will continue to club outlook -- cloud the outlook and was one of the reasons for the feds dovish outlook. i would be certainly keen to know what fed chair yellen has to say as tomorrow she is due to
deliver her annual testimony. i think there will be a question on that. she did address that very briefly last week during the fed's press conference, but i think tomorrow she will have a better chance to elaborate on that, if indeed she signals a temporary hindrance for them. that will ultimately mean the euro-dollar positive. valentin, thanks. vonnie, what's next? vonnie: we are looking at an fe a press conference after they of thed the transcript 911 call during the massacre . during the call, he referred to himself as is an islamic soldier and america should stop bombing syria. >> one of the reasons why the response -- ♪
mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn and this is the european coa close. the 10 year yield up the most in a month although it is still pretty low. the yen also dropping against the u.s. dollar. the bank of japan refrain from expanding monetary stimulus. mohamed el-erian was on "bloomberg " this morning and explain he feels the bank of japan is between ineffective and counterproductive. he also explained what they could do to improve the situation. >> with the yen at 104, the bank of japan is already in negative territory. you have asked the question --
how has it gotten here? japanot think the bank of ever envisioned such a stronger yen when it took stronger interest rates negative. now it doesn't know what to do. it has been basically paralyzed and sidelined after such a counterintuitive outcome. the critical issue for the bank of japan and for others is not the central banks fault. they are carrying a huge burden with inefficient tools. it is the politicians not delivering. in japan, they are not delivering the third era. arrow. >> what would you tell them? >> what i would tell mr. draghi and janet yellen is that you have to got -- got to have the other policymaking input. whether you look at japan and u.s. or what happened in india with the departure of the governor, this is messy politics getting in the way of good economic policies.
it is all about messy politics. as a result, economic policy finds it very hard to become. coherent. >> there has been a conversation about what central bank should and shouldn't do. we know what they will do -- keep on pushing the stimulus button. they are now going to corporate debt. i know what you're saying about the bank of japan, but do you see a catalyst for change in japan? >> the only real catalyst for change would be if the third arrow, structural reforms, would come into play. i suspect they will try to do a bit more qe. i do not know if they will go more negative on rates, but i suspect they will try to do a little more qe. i do not think it will make any fundamental difference to the outlook. >> looking at the global bond markets, they were looking at flat yield curves, whether it across thend japan, eurozone, and now even the united states. what is the message that you are taking from a flat treasury curve? >> the message is don't take out
the usual methods. in the u.s., normally that's an indication of a recession. i do not think that is the case this time. what you are seeing is that u.s. rates are being influenced in a major way by what is happening in europe. europe has a completely different outlook between a very active ecb and a rather sluggish economic outlook. i can explain europe on the basis of european developments. in the case of the u.s., you cannot explain on the case of u.s. developments. >> janet in front of congress -- will it make a difference? likelihood that the fed will slip again if the next employment report is strong. people really want to know how deep is the conviction and foundation of this fed. mark: mohamed el-erian their speaking on "bloomberg oh
" earlier. janet yellen testifying before congress. we will have full coverage of that event on bloomberg television starting at 10:00 a.m. eastern, 3:00 p.m. london time. we are literally nine minutes away from the end of the monday session. what a day it has been. much more ahead on "bluebird markets" today -- "bloomberg markets" today. equities rising, the dollar slipping on speculation the you cable vote to remain -- that the u.k. will vote to remain in the eu. ♪
form and mining equipment. the global three-month rolling sales are down 12% in april. that is the hardest hit market, down 31% there. they been hurt by falling commodity prices. apple may be closer to opening stores in india. they have lifted a major roadblock in policies that require retailers to by 30% of their components locally before they set up shop. retailers have a so-called grace period of three and -- between three and eight years. an investigation of the former volkswagen ceo after allegations of market manipulations in connection with that the w scandal on cars rigged to cheat on emissions tests. volkswagens plans to submit a $10 billion settlement offer in the united states. that is your bloomberg business flash for this hour. let us take a quick look at the u.s. majors. you can see that the s&p 500 is
up 1.25% at 25 points. the dow is up 1.3%, also with the highs of the day. the nasdaq is the leader for the moment, up 1.6%. below 17 -- the vix index is below 17. let's take a look at the nigerian currency. it is up to 38 on the u.s. dollar. mark: this is the european close and check out the equity benchmark. what a rally today. the biggest rally since august last year. it is a risk on rally today. the close is next in four minutes. stick around. ♪
3.7%. we have not seen a gain of this magnitude since august, 2015. the momentum seems to be with the remaining camp ahead of the referendum. after a week last week that showed momentum was very much with the brexit camp. then of course we had a tragic death of the labor mp jo cox. every industry group arising today. financial services up by 5.2%. this chart tells you everything you need to know today about asset classes. this is the average of ability of a brexit. they go to the west side, they take the bookmakers on, and they put it into a probability. , were the death of jo cox
had a white line at 44%. today, 25%. as you can see, it has been a very volatility index from the middle of may. what is more impressive, if you are long on the pound, the move we have seen against the dollar today. 2.2%. the biggest since october, 2008. on thursday, sterling fell to 1.40 against the dollar. right now, you can see we are at 1.47. as we heard earlier, these are very illiquid markets. that is why we are seeing big moves in the currency. goes aheadthe brexit tomorrow, you could see those rumors. we have had two days of rising yields in the u.k. after eight consecutive days of record low yields.
now at 1.24%. i will leave you with what is a wonderful index and function that highlights the rally we have seen across all asset classes today. equities rallying. the norwegian krone rallying. credit default swaps are falling. and of course, we are seeing commodities rally as well. mark: phenomenal day. 221 points up on the doubt. the 10-year yield, 1.67%. abigail doolittle has more from the nasdaq. abigail: we're looking at a nice ,ally for the nasdaq, up 1.6% having its best day in nearly a month. outperforming the dow and s&p 500. the biggest weights on the
nasdaq today include amazon, microsoft, alphabet. atlantic equities ungraded expedia from neutral to an overweight. the analyst expects material earnings growth from non-core assets, including homeaway and orbitz. he sees 19% upside potential for expedia. priceline also trading higher today. soaring,rlines also this on an upgrade from credit suisse. she believesays the story is they are back on track. of 2016 revenues are improving and she raised her price target by 25% to $55 per share. what stands out the most, it is one of the few airlines to be trading higher this year, higher
by 10% in 2016. vonnie: thank you. let's check in on the first word news with taylor raikes. taylor: it is a setback for prime minister renzi in italy. virginia rajiv mobile the city's first mayor. another candidate was elected mayor of turin. in venezuela, people are getting so desperate for food, they are ransacking stores. there have been more than 50 food riots in the last few weeks. five people have been killed. venezuela has not been able to produce enough food on its own and cannot afford imports. the fbi says the orlando nightclub shooter omar mateen was radicalized domestically not by a foreign terrorist group. the investigation is continuing. transcripts released today show that he told a crisis negotiator
that the u.s. needed to stop bombing iraq and syria. in kabul, afghanistan, 14 people were killed when a taliban suicide bomber targeted a minibus. the victims were said to be security guards from nepal. the taliban has recently increased its attacks on civilians and afghan security forces. in the city of paris, older cars and motorcycles will be banned from the streets over the weekend. this willtimated remove about 5% of the city's air pollution. paris is considered one of the laggards when it comes to pollution control. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am taylor raikes. stocks surging today. sterling jumping the most since 2008. momentum swinging.
prime minister david cameron is trying to seize the moment, accusing the leave campaign of spreading lies. >> people are getting leaflets saying that turkey is going to join the eu, not true. there will be a european army with britain in it. not true. to leave thisvote organization, let's go to leave it, but let's not do it on the basis of three things that are completely untrue. mark: our london bureau chief is with us. is it fair to say, simon, that the pendulum has swung back to the remain camp? >> we did see this in the wake of that awful event with the murder of jo cox. perhaps we had seen it anyway. one pollster was talking about one of their findings, and they were playing down the effects of jo cox. they were playing up the fact
that people were starting to worry more about the economy and that some of the warnings were getting through. either way, there is some --entum with the moraine remain camp. mark: david cameron was hanging those three things that underline the campaign are basically not true. hashe camera and campaign struggled to make that message. mark: he's a maybe i'm at fault for not getting the message across. claiming very well that we are not quitters, britain are not quitters. he is trying to make a more positive message then perhaps they have been doing with the economics, the budget, saying how bad it would all be. they are now trying to pivot away slightly from what they see as lies from the leave campaign, and also this message that we
are not quitters. all of these things that they want to ram home in the coming days. vonnie: how much leverage will cameron have it the eu level, will he be able to gather anything for the ek that they have wanted and what might that be? once we are in, we can introduce the room arms that i have agreed on a few months back, and then we can push forward. whether that is dismissive for , he didence, certainly not get a sweeping reform as he wants hoped for. remember, this has been an issue that has dominated europe for most part of the year and in other european capitals who may prefer to be dealing with immigration, the economy, and have been sidetracked by this. it could well be that europe
galvan eyes is, they took a message, we nearly lost britain. as noisealso take this for a few months and we are not ready to listen to it. that is to see. a few days before that. mark: simon, thank you. no doubt we will see you tomorrow. we have seen a swing toward the remain. 1/4 to remain. joining us now is matthew shattuck. thank you for joining us. what changes have we witnessed in betting patterns since the tragic death of jo cox on thursday? >> we don't know if that had as big of an effect as you may think. thee moved to remain from middle of last week anyway, has continued. in some ways, that is normal to see a referendum like this, to
see confidence increase as we get closer to: day. mark: of you from one of the competitors, it momentum falls, brexit continued by last weekend, they could be favorites. think we now have a gap between leave and remain in the odds until thursday? >> it is unlikely that we see leave become favorites, until we start to see polls that are six or seven points ahead. even if we got to polling day were ahead by a few points in the falls, i think they would expect to still win. vonnie: what are the odds for david cameron to keep his job? >> they are almost exactly correlated to what is happening with brexit.
his chances seem to have improved. bettingseen some days on him to survive upright until 2020. vonnie: what kind of money is going into this? thatow that a 35,000 pound was put on. is that still the largest? >> we think so. we took some 25,000 pounds bets this morning. we expect the british gambling market to take in about 100 million pounds on this, which could make it the biggest political event ever. mark: what about the payouts? if it is brexit, what kind of losses are we looking at? bite would lose a little with a positive position. we are reasonably well-balanced at the moment. the on in you have your head at the moment in terms clinton orctions,
trunk winning? >> if you look at the betting markets as a whole, they are giving him a 25% chance of winning, which is not great. i hear one of his campaign managers said today, we will wait to see if there is any effect. cameron? about >> the person getting the most support his home secretary theresa may. she has been kept outside of the discussions as a whole. she is the one that the pond as a possible unity candidate. mark: thanks for joining us. a big week for matthew and for us. vonnie: i did not even get to ask him about soccer. coming up, the european close. boys nowehind flash has ♪
vonnie: live from london and new york, i am vonnie quinn. i am mark barton and his is the european close. time for the latest business flash. putin is considering whether to sell stakes to one of russia's corporate crown jewels to china and india. russia is looking for buyers for the% stake in rosneft, state owned oil company. it is estimated the sale could bring in $11 billion. rosneft pumps more oil than at some mobile. british housing prices kept
climbing this month. the asking prices in the u.k. $444,000.% to almost .2%,s were down in london blamed on the new property tax and uncertainty over the vote on the european union. boeing may be in what did extend the life of its venerable 747 after all, according to people familiar with the matter. they are close to a $4 billion deal with russia's largest airfreight company. sales of the 747 have dwindled as airlines have shifted to more fuel-efficient planes, like the 777. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. iex, a start up more
transparency to trading just got a ftc approval and became the nation's 13th official stock exchange. the exchange offers a speed that which creates a delay of 250 microseconds in trading. joined erik schatzker this morning to speak about the significance of the decision. are limits to how big dark pools can grow. we no longer have a limit to how big they can grow. also, competing at the highest level. we are focused on serving multiple constituents, so our best relationships are with the managers butsset there have been a number of publicly traded companies that have expressed interest working with idx. becoming an exchange is the next step. is ae: joining us now partner from an agency broker.
before, iex was a dark pool, and now it is out in the open. what is the difference? >> they have done things which are much better than the exchange model now. they do not have a rebate model pays basically plays -- clients to poetically in. they have a flat structure. the important part about the current exchange model, they sell data. exchange is now make more money from selling data than they do transaction. iex is saying, we are about client or flow. that is what i am trying to do. when they have done is change the model. the sec realizes that over the last 10 years, the model has been broken. they didn't know what to do about it, and along came a free market approach like iex, and they said this gives us a way out. they had 2% of all
trading right now. why would you not want rebates, information to be sold to you? >> rebates are a very distorted for us. my job is to buy and sell large pieces of stock for my clients. i am not there buying 100 shares. i am trying to do a bigger chunk. we think rebate will distort routers. sometimes it gives signals to others who are predatory in nature, most likely high-speed firms, who are looking to pick off my flow. i am trying to hide all day long, and we think this will help us. grow andhis will become another exchange, just like the nyse, nasdaq, and others. will it lose some of his competitive advantages that way? >> i think market share will make up quickly. they will start to drive liquidity back into a displayed quote.
40% of the order flow in trades are done off exchange. we think iex will allow that flow. competitors may see that as a good thing, and we will see more liquidity built in. which is what you want for price discovery. when finding the price of an asset, it does not help when it is scattered all over these different exchanges. iex, this is the change the market needed. this will now drive other changes going forward, like getting rid of the rebate model. of yourwhat percent training do you do through iex? >> i do not have a number, but the other we were doing more on that than any other. we are not getting the movement as we do in other venues. is best execution for my clients. we see this as an excellent venue for that. vonnie: thank you for explaining that for us, joe. ♪
vonnie: it is time for our global battle of the charts. we take a look at some of the most telling charts of the day. kicking things off today, joe weisenthal. it is eu referendum week, so the charts are about that. this is a look at pound-frank, .hich is what i like to look at unlike pound-euro, the frank is a safe asian that should rise in the event of a brexit. , this isee going back two fridays ago. they have been moving in tandem, hitting their low in the middle of last week. today we have the pound surging against the frank and s&p also
surging. it is a really nice way of demonstrating how right now everything is all about this referendum. stocks in the u.s. correlated with currency pairs in europe. there is only one story in the world, and this chart shows it. mark?: mark: this is a chart in honor of hillary clark, the queen of charts. she is in london this week and came up with that chart. when you give joe the victory, it is her loss. the top portion is the u.k. economic policy uncertainty index. essentially, this tracks the general state of the u.k. economy as it relates to businesses. it goes back to the beginning of 2014.
it relates to the frequency of newspaper references to policy uncertainty. as you can see, back at the end of march, and rose to a record high. to 1997, the tech bubble, the boom and bust of 2008 as well, the highest level since 1997. as you can see, it has come down in recent months. shares core ftse. this tracks the ftse 100. a cumulativeet outflows since 2014. since the middle of 2015, we have been rising. still in negative territory. what is beautiful, since the referendum begun, we are flat, still negative with outflows, but money is still moving out of
the biggest etf here in the u.k. what will happen if we remain? u.k. stocks have outperformed their european peers since the start of this referendum. vonnie: mark, you played the card. you cannot talk about hillary clark and expect me to give them victory to anyone else. joe, i know you have a zero record with me, because all of your charts are great, but you are the winner, mark barton. mark: well done, hillary. vonnie: take a look at where u.s. majors stand right now. up 1% at least. ♪
markets. from bloomberg world headquarters, good morning. alix: here is what we're watching at this hour. a strong start to the trading week as global stocks soared and sterling surge after we control suggested the u.k. u.k. is more likely to remain in the european union. donald trump has severed ties with his campaign manager. a divisive figure on the trail as he tries to recover from weeks of falling polls. lawyer joins us on my big companies are actively praying on their debit competitors. over to the's go markets desk julie hyman has been watching the action. ju