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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  June 20, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT

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alix: the question is, look at this. signs the campaign for the u.k. to stay in the european union is gaining momentum. >> plus nigeria's plummet after the central bank ended a 16-month long currency fix. will this move bring foreign investors back into the market? >> earnings released tomorrow. we look at how much of a threat amazon's idea of its only delivery network poses to the shipping giant. we begin with our market minute. the band is back together once again. the dow beating more than a hundred points. this is the s&p 500 best day since may 25. if you break it down by sector you have 9-10 major groups higher. the exception is utilities. you only have utilities and
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staples doing not as well. industrials and energy are leading the advance. w.t.i. gained more than 2% on the day. >> we've definitely come off the highs of the day. at one point the s&p over 2100. still up on the day but not quite where we were earlier on. >> we definitely saw the yen start to rally at the end of the day, too. overall the rally did wind up starting in asia, the nikkei, hang seng were up. it spread over to europe. the ftse actually had its biggest rally since february. it did spread here to the u.s. check out the vix. it measures fear in the market. this is a five-day chart. look what happened there. one point near 23 last wednesday and then now back down to 17. to show the wild ride we're seeing in the market. one thing i wanted to point out, marathon oil was up by over 10%. it is buying pay rock energy holdings for $888 million. it gives them exposure to
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oklahoma where the shale now lives but also speaks that m. & a is starting to happen but on a smaller scale. of course the oil rally did wind up helping energy stocks overall. chef rhon, exxon adding 15 opponents to the dow. >> and government bonds, two days in a row we've seen yields take higher which is very strange this year. there is the u.s. 10-year yield up to 1.67%. and in the u.k. obviously as we've been talking about all day the momentum seems to be ith the nice jump to 1.24. basically as people relax a little bit and think that maybe it isn't going to happen. some of the safe heaven flows into the government assets pulling back a little bit. of course these are still historically low levels. >> and i did want to point out indonesia. >> borrowing at 0.8%. junk rated, selling to japanese investors at 0.8%.
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incredible. >> unreal. of course the british pound steals the spotlight. i wanted to go outside that for a moment and talk about nigeria. the central bank has depegged the currency letting it devalue. you can see the one-day charge shows the u.s. dollar appreciating as much as 43%. prior to today the central bank kept the currency just below 200 and today tumbled to a week-low. the record actually suggests there is more weakness to come. the five-year chart it crashed in 2015 as oil prices slumped and the central bank fixed the currency to the dollar and using capital controls to stem the outflow of dollars. of course then it depipes once again today. >> brent up over 2%. copper also rallying as well. raymond james actually upgrading its forecast for brent to $83 for next year. so there is general optimism in
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commodities doing pretty well. >> those are today's market minutes. let's take a deep dive into the bloomberg. find all of the following trends using the function at the bottom of the screen. >> this is the function np on your terminal. it measures story counts in bloomberg articles. on the white line look at the word bregset mentioned in articles and it is really fun to look at how much this has switched. at this time last year it was all the word. no one was even talking about it. now you have the issue soaring. no one is now talking about a gregsit. story counts around 1800 right now. that kind of says it all. > could be the next one. >> maybe. how do you do it? >> i want to put this pound to
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percent rally into some perspective so i'm looking at the h.r.h. function, historical return histogram and this is every pound/dollar move over the last 10 years distributed. so you can see that sort of most by far most of the distributions are sort of this central area where it's plus 0.01 or negative -- or 0.01. with this rally this move today that we got of over 2.1%, way out there. just extraordinary. always been a couple days like this in the last 10 years. it just goes to show what we saw today with the pound, with that surge, on the optimism that remained is going to say, a way remarkable move, completely outside of the historical norm today. >> love that. >> keep that time period to just say the past month the distribution curve would look completely different. >> absolutely. we could do that real quickly. >> interesting.
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the 2.25. t moves way out there. tveragets is not just there but also economic data. looking at u.k. housing you can see that the potential to leave the e.u. is showing up in the demand for houses especially in london. this shows the national asking price index slowing now to 5.5% year on year. it still sounds pretty good but that is the slowest rate of increase since last july right around here. so you are seeing the impact, real world impact from all the concerns and controversy and uncertainty generated. see all these charts and more on twitter. >> joining us now is the bloomberg stocks reporter. yes we had a rally today but can it continue with all the uncertainty? >> a great question. i think it kind of depends on obviously what is going to happen but today is an
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interesting move because if they move up pretty much across all equity markets around the world we came in this morning with europe just soaring and we piggy backed right off of that. and what was interesting is that the week prior i think really up until thursday obviously there is a terrible tragedy. really a fascination with the political members. kind of changed the tone here. it's something to think about in terms of what changed in the market outlook here. up until that it didn't really work like stocks or considered a really natural thing but the friday two weeks ago and the monday right after we saw big moves down in the stock both almost a percent and in the shoot up in the vix. now it looks like we've sort of backtracked on that. today we're getting a little move down the vix, a move up in stocks. and kind of does beg the question, whether or not this is going to continue when the vote comes. are we poised for just a massive move up in equity markets if the u.k. chooses to remain? i'm not sure.
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if you look at pretty much what happened across the market this morning, just basically a chart looking at the move in equities and the chance of the brexit pulled basically odd checker function --. >> we've all been addicted to this function the last few weeks. you can see in the past 12 gauge or so, the new inverse related to one another and then today the move in the odds goes way down. stocks jump as a result. so how much of this has been baked in. hard to say really. maybe this is just kind of a exit lags from the move that we had down last week and then obviously a weird quadruple witching day on friday so perhaps it means kind of a lag move in markets from last week. >> oliver, what are people saying could happen if the u.k. does vote to leave? what are the ranges of possibilities that you're seeing out there? >> right. here's the thing. if you look at that and see if it is like today you see stocks generally up toward their highs. we're not that far from 21's
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pretty much today throughout trading so it doesn't really seem like a lot of nervousness out there. the bigs are now back down under 20. you have to think that, hey, if there is a big move that changes the scope of geo politics and markets, then there is probably going to be some kind of a pretty big reaction. in terms of sectors and companies, hard to really know, definitely a lot of people that expertly on that. however when you look at commentaries it does center around the financial companies and the banks and i think the commentary as well. >> you are actually looking at the put calls skew in the s&p as a measure of kind of the fear and volatility in the markets. talk to us about what you're seeing there. >> this is a pretty straight forward chart. basically 90% vs. 110%. puts versus calls basically a little higher that line gets on the bottom panel the more bears people are in terms of outlook. this is a one-month options contract. jumps can see it really
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up. i mean, in the past couple weeks we've jumped pretty high up. we are the highest in close to a year or so and basically that tells you people are sort of going to the market breaking for potential outcome here where the price, the demand really for put there, 90%, should the market fall by 10%, those people are going to be in the money then. that jumped up a little bit as well. if you look at the volatility surface which goes out for term wise, volatility really drops off after one month. it is pretty amazing and is really pricing in just the next, the big move coming up. >> in terms of where the demand is going to come from for u.s. stocks i know you were looking at a note from goldman sax which pin points the source of demand whether corporate, foreign, retail. what is interesting here is that it is a little bit less of everything from last yeek. >> it is fascinating. this is sort of a confirmation of a trend we talked about here a lot on the show and written about on the stocks team which is the idea there is a lack of demand from noncorporate buyers in the stock markets. nothing is terribly surprising but it is interesting to see
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what goldman is projecting for 2016. the blue line is projections for demand and equities for 2016. orange is what happened last year. the top there obviously the corporates. buybacks. so the companies are purchasing less assets this year but still going to be really the saving grace for the stock market and you can speculate on buy backs, how much do they contribute to earnings and how much do they keep the market afloat but the numbers don't lie, right? >> why do we see retail picking up this year vs. last year? >> a great question. i'm not really totally sure. >> aren't they still under invested at this point? >> right. obviously a server that has people have qualms with, not perfect, but sort of measures e retail type investor and they are very bearish on the market. basically goldman is saying the first quarter is an anomaly in terms of demand and things are going to pick up the rest of the year. the retail part jobs soft is really the only noncorporate
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demand. you have to wonder whether or not mom and pop are going to keep the rally going. >> oliver, thanks very much. coming up just three days to go until the u.k. referendum vote with marmingins narrowing. we'll take a look at all the what ifs of a brexit for the u.k. economy, next.
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let's get to first word news. the supreme court has once again decided to stay out of the growing debate over assault weapons bance.
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the nation's highest court refused to question assault rifle bans in new york and connecticut. the justices left intact several appeals court rulings that said the bans comply with the constitutional right to bear arms. new york and connecticut are among seven states that outlaw weapons similar to the one used by omar mateen in the june 12 massacre that killed 49 people in a night club in orlando, florida. one of the most brutal crimes during the height of the nation's civil rights movement has been closed. state officials say no more prosecutions are expected in the 1964 slayings of three civil rights workers. the freedom summer slayings sparked national outrage and helped increase passage of the 1964 civil rights act. white supremacist edgar ray kilen was convicted of manslaughter in 2005. the death toll from flooding in java is now 47. rescue workers found more bodies today. dozens of houses were buried in
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the landslides and thousands of homes were inundated by floods in 16 districts and towns in central java province over the weekend. a disturbing new report from the united nations. more than 65 million people were displaced last year. that's a post war record. continued conflicts and perfection in places like syria and persecution in places like syria and afghanistan fuel the number of refugees and internally displaced people in 2015. global displacement has roughly doubled since 1997 and risen by 50% since 2011 alone when the syrian civil war began. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. a new poll shows that the camp has -- the remain camp has made gains. we want to look at the what ifs
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facing the u.k. outside of the e.u. our guest joins ounce his firm's findings of the challenges and opportunities of a break. i want to start with the latter. you say if a brexit happens it could be a good thing for the u.k. explain. >> i think what we find is yes there is likely to be an exit for brexit in the long run for leaving the customs union, the single market. but if you do manage to strike a trade agreement between the u.k. and e.u. there are also opportunities to which you can maybe offset some of the economic costs, opening up to trade with the rest of the world, striking free trade agreements, lowering tariffs in other parts of the world. potentially deregulating parts of your economy given the greater freedom you get outside the e.u. to do that. i think provided that you do keep a high immigration or good level of immigration to provide the skills that businesses need. this suggests that there is some positive economic gain outside the e.u. to offset the
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costs but are -- is there political willingness to open up with emerging markets given the issues we saw earlier this year. there is a willingness to keep high levels of immigration even outside the e.u.? those are the questions. >> what is the time frame that -- what is the earliest the u.k. could expect to find a new, stable place after the brexit? we please there will be this long negotiation just to leave the e.u. and then a negotiation to hammer out those trade deals. so how many years of uncertainty are we talking about before we know the u.k.'s new place in the world? >> well, i think we did a big look at all the different free trade agreements struck over the past few decades. what you find is that free trade agreement can range between 4 to 10 years for negotiating so it could be quite a long time. you have to take into fact the u.k. and e.u. are already quite intertwined so it is not bringing two systems together but finding how the two will
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evolve in the future. that might shorten it. then again you have the political sensibilities which add difficulties. for us i think we're looking at quite a few years, four or five is what we have before you have all the trade agreements wrapped up. obviously within that you will get certainty increasing as things progress as the u.k. and e.u. make their negotiating positions clear. i'll explain where they look to go. but it still means there is likely to be a number of years of uncertainty. >> you looked at how the u.k. might prosper and you believe a things that need to high pressure include embracing relatively high immigration. the touchstone of this brexit debate. explain what you mean by maintaining high immigration. >> well, what we're seeing in the u.k. already is some skill shortages in certain sectors, engineering, science, health care even. so there is a business demand there. we have record high employment. we have low unemployment. so i think if we go forward even outside the e.u. there will be a need to keep high
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immigration. if you reduce it we will see businesses facing skill shortages. that will mean having to invest heavily in training or domestic work, possibly rising costs for businesses. so there would be some economic costs in our future reducing immigration. what you can do is change the mix. have a different point system that brings in more high skilled, less low skilled from the e.u. and that extra mix added with the control. the question is, is that enough to satisfy people? as we've seen in this campaign it's been very much about immigration. i think if we do get a lead rope it will be strongly driven by antiimmigration sentiment. the question is, is that a mandate still to continue with high immigration? i think a lot of people in the e.u., if we did leave the e.u., would want to see immigration reduced. our sense is that there will be some economic result. >> i want to shift to a different story quickly in european politics. over the weekend we saw the five star movement in italy. there is another pop lift party, mayorships in rome and
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turin. tell us about the political trajectory in italy. we haven't talked about it much because we've been focused on spain and the u.k., and germany. what is the situation for major parties in italy and what you would be watching for? >> well, italy is a fascinating political situation to watch at the moment. we have actually another ref dumb coming up -- referendum coming up in the autumn on a constitutional reform and he staked his job on it so if he doesn't win, does please the gebt the re -- doesn't get the reform approved by the referendum he will have to step down. these election results in that context are quite worrying for him and shows growing support for the five star movement. growing support for them as a governing party. and it shows that his honeymoon period, his popularity and his policies popularity is on the wane. what we're also seeing at the same time is a number of polls have come out consistently owing italy to be the most euroistic country across the
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e.u. the combination makes it difficult for him to win the referendum and the polls have narrowed significantly. we could see renzi facing a battle for his life later on this year and that is probably the last thing italy needs at this point in time. > thank you very much. tune in wednesday the night before the referendum vote. on thursday we'll have special coverage on brexit with a whole hour of fantastic guests including the house of lords member sir robert skidelsky all starting at 4:00 p.m. on bloomberg television. >> plus, the trend that you can't miss, next.
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>> what did you miss? well, they're making it costlier for banks to get funding. i was really interested in the conversation of are we seeing financial stress in the markets? this chart says, yes. this basically looks at how much more above it costs to borrow u.s. dollars through the swaps market. this is in basis points on the right-hand side of your screen. if you're a big bank, you have bad credit, you'll want to get into a swap because you'll need dollars. this is where you go to get it. typically you're right around zero if you just go over the last few years. basically it's pretty cheap. no big deal. the more negative you get the more expensive it is to swap into dollars. we're seeing it now by about negative 40 basis points. there is a rising premium to borrow those dollars in f.x. swaps. that does show elevated stress in the global financial system. so when we say brexit a big deal? yes, it is. this chart shows you why.
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>> you know the world central banks will be ready in the event of a brexit to get in the market. i want to talk a little bit more about what happened in markets today particularly in europe and so we got to -- a big rally in europe across the board. the huge winner irish stocks. ireland very sensitive to what is going on as a neighbor of the u.k. up 4.5%. next up germany had a huge day up over 3%. and then of course italy and i mean it is hard to know exactly but italy was definitely the worst performer of the year, still up over 2.5%. you have to wonder if some of those electoral results we got over the weekend, which on any other day might have been a huge story, because this idea that the main party is starting to deteriorate, the market surged but definitely the worst performer of the day italy just less than 3%. so it is interesting to see them lag behind. >> a lot of it masked by the risk on rally. let's bring it back home. i'm taking a look at u.s. home
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prices. after the policy meeting this month the fed noted housing has improved and timing wise the fed is spot on. we are at the tail end of the spring season and these are existing u.s. home prices. you tend to see the medium purchase price for u.s. existing homes almost always peaks in june. in fact over the last five, six years you see higher highs for every june. that is because families with kids are looking for bigger homes. they want to be settled before the start of a new school year. yes, i'm looking at both of you, joe, and alex. this is certainly something you wonder cab it continue on this trajectory with the federal reserve looking to raise interest rates, looking to tighten monetary policy? a lot of uncertainty in the way. >> peaked out basically. >> that's why they try to seasonally adjust charts. >> that is. all right. coming up, will nigeria's latest currency move bring back foreign investors to this market? we'll explore the naira, next.
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mark: i am mark crumpton. let's get to first work news. ashton carter says the islamic state is relentless in its plans to plot or inspire attacks on americans. speaking today in washington, secretary carter said the orlando, florida mass shooting is a reminder that the militant group not only terrorizes what populations are in iraq and syria but also wants to spread its ideology. former u.s. house speaker dennis hester will report to a federal prison in southeastern minnesota this week. the 74-year-old will begin serving a 15-month sentence in his hush money case. the fbi has arrested 4 people
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including three high-ranking new york city police officer's in a corruption investigation. >> today we alleged 2 separate and serious criminal schemes including bribery of officers who were sworn to uphold the rule of law. in one, private citizens got over $100,000 for all manner of official police actions, and in the other come officers subverted public safety by putting hard to get gun licenses essentially up for sale. mark: a businessman who contributed to new york mayor bill de blasio has pleaded guilty in the case. democrats are happier with her choices for president than republicans. a new gallup poll reveals some new 1% of democratic voters believe there is at least one candidate would make a good president. nepal is cracking down on fake doctors.
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police arrested over 50 people over the weekend for allegedly working with fake credentials. the suspects face of the five years in prison if convicted. authorities say more arrests are expected later this week. nepal has long had a deficit of doctors with one for every 1700 people. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. scarlet: let's get a recap of today's market action. it was about there across the board for u.s. stocks that we should mention that is as close right around the worst levels of the session. there is a steady deterioration -- not really deterioration come because we are still higher with nine out of 10 industries gaining. joe: a huge research out of the gate on optimism that they will participate in the eu after all. kind of an unimpressive and
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today given at one point the s&p was over 2100. alix: the yen sold off to if you look at the euro-yen, turned higher later in the session. the response rate is not as strong as it was during this morning. scarlet: what'd you miss -- nigeria's currency, and losing more than one third of its value . a senior analyst joins us now from london with more. the central bank has promised back in late may to introduce greater flexibility to its regime. does the detecting achieve that -- depegging achieve that? >> the decision to depeg comes late but hopefully not too late. the government had done this in
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2015 -- [indiscernible] alix: i'm curious on the time. it is not when oil was $26 a barrel. it was when you had so much infrastructure damage from militants and you have production down so much they chose to pull the trigger. can you talk about that? malte: that is correct. arguably right now it is not an immediate concern for nigeria. it is much more the resurgence in militancy has cut production quite dramatically by about 700,000 barrels per day is the beginning of the year. joe: how much of breathing room does this detecting given a hearing government and does this
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give investors an incentive to come back to market? malte: investors have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for this to happen for quite some time. in terms of giving the government more leeway on the financial situation, yes, there are some immediate benefits here. one is that normal times nigeria would derive 90% of its foreign exchange earnings through oil and gas, and around 7% of its government revenue. the fact that the peg is shown earlier in the show that it dropped by 40% means that immediately the revenue that comes in from crude oil will result in government revenue
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going up. on the other hand, there is still a production shortfall due to rising militancy. they are quite effective at cutting waste and removing ghosts from payrolls and interesting accounts and are able to manage low hanging fruit there. the economy is going to its recession and it would be quite difficult to raise revenues from here on going forward. alix: i'm looking at it at $2.82. what is the downside potential to? malte: in the premium market it
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is in the first half of 2016, about 60%, the official exchange rate that got up to about 80% last week. it is difficult to tell because of the volumes in the market have been much lower than what has been going on in today's market before cap was. -- it got close. scarlet: when you speak with your clients particularly the foreign investors to are out there, what is the number one concern. one of the asking you constantly? malte: we have been waiting for this flow to happen quite some time. the other major thing is the situation in the delta, which has been deteriorating the beginning of the year. that has been coming for quite
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some time because under the new government, the budget which has been allocated for allowances to be paid out to keep it, has been cut by two thirds this year and also a major security contract which has been handed off the previous administration to cap pipelines has been accounted. this is something -- the deterioration something which we have been forecasting. joe: all right, thank you very much for john mr. -- for joining us. scarlet: what does this mean for monetary policy going forward? we will discuss this next. ♪
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scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. the supreme court says the european union can not press charges against r.j. reynolds for a money laundering scheme. the justices ruled that racketeering laws do not allow for recovery of injuries outside the united states. alix: venezuela is highly unlikely to have the money to make its debt payments. that is according to moody's. moody says the default is not inevitable, but they are likely to default. if that happens, it could compromise government finances to the point that the country will be unable to make payments
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on his dollar bond. sunday's contest in which lebron james led the cleveland cavaliers to the nba championship had the biggest audience for the nba championship since game six in 1996. that is the bloomberg business flash. "what'd you miss?" the indian central bank governor exiting, that he is prompting havoc with the rupee. i would argue it does not trigger a massive change in policy. it's enshrining high stability as the main goal of india monetary policy, two key points had rajan himself
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championed in recent years. alix: the idea that mr. modi will go with someone he likes to a safer, someone who will not target in ration, someone who will not knocked down banks and deal with corruption there -- that's wrong? bigger risknk the is on the tone and the enthusiasm with which a new governor would go about continuing to focus on inflation and monetary policy. in both ofocked those trajectories, both of those directions, but the level of enthusiasm for the new governor will be important in how the r.b.i. goes about this mandates. they cannot change the mandate, but they can certainly change the tone and the pace. alix: all right, who was on the short list? who do you think will get that spot? a huge spectrum
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of names and there's a large number of people that could fill his shoes credibly and competently.- i think you have safer options that will more clearly pursue policies, people like the patel rbi governor and you have bureaucrats, particularly the current economic affairs secretary and many would see that appointment as a signal the government really doesn't appreciate the in.i.'s growing independence recent years and would like to rain again, whereas someone from the r.b.i. who is seen as having distance from the current government, it would be seen as more a signal continuity. scarlet: betty liu is here. is -- whatquestion if finding a successor is not that simple and can take longer than anticipated? betty: that's right and the
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timing is surprising, too. it certainly was not the most convenient time to announce this given all of these concerns about brexit. sasha was dead on in many respects. areink the markets more nervous than he may be. you heard mark mobius on our network earlier saying there are plenty of candidates out there, plenty of very credible candidate. it's not so much there is no pool there, but it goes back to the issue -- is this next person going to have the political clout and the will to continue this inflation fighting that we saw rajan put in place during his tenure? alix: take a look at my bloomberg here. this is chart 1702. this is the rupee versus the dollar.
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this is converted, so it is really legit. it shows the decline in the ruby, then it shows a huge move downward and it stabilizes. hey, is this market and are venture and, what is happening there, etc.? joe: i know people are talking about -- rajan being very tough on on performing loans and regulators, so are people thinking the next central bank governor might not be so clear on cleaning it up? probably. he was very tough on inflation, but also financial reform. he was partly out stick, you could say. becausey that campaign he was so hard on the financial sector. and maybe you could interpret some pullingast back of his more stringent policies. right, there's a lot of questioning about whether the modi administration is as
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committed to reform as they are to rhetoric and the action may not be there if they are willing to get rid of someone like rajan, or at least push him out. the two were in close. the prime minister and rajan. there may be attempts by the prime minister and his allies, but will be a position be tough enough? to persuade others to sway to his side? alix: and betty, you have a new show -- scarlet: why is betty talking about india? alix: what is it called? what time? betty: this is the reason i am thesee -- to talk about stories, these types of stories that affect not just investors in asia, but investors here as well and europe, as we see with brexit.
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break a leg. we are going to examine how e-commerce will affect earnings that are set to be released tomorrow. ♪
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scarlet: is amazon about to cut fedex out? some analysts speculate that
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amazon might build its own delivery network to get directly into customer hands. ceo has called the reports "fantastical and unlikely." let's go inside the numbers in today's "numbers don't lie."amazon has given every indication it is serious about investing in logistics. it's a it would release 20 boeing 757 freighters. the chart here shows revenue growth over the past decade driven in large part by the explosion of e-commerce. now, sales increased at a five-year compound annual rate of 6.4% through fiscal 2015. the ground segment -- the brown segment led the data models 30% last quarter. fedex raised the bottom of its four-year earnings forecast range as a near to end of the $1.7 billion cost reduction program. a backup of modern u.s. economic growth supports demand for shipments. fedex is considered an economic bellwether bit the company publishes projections for global and domestic gdp, shown here.
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it sees the u.s. expanding 2.2% and the global economy expanding and you can see that did. fedex has a more global footprint. for tnt express is now complete. the acquisition should help the combined company get a bigger piece of the $60 billion is market -- express market. get more on that look after the close of u.s. trading on tuesday . alix: we want to bring in the class cap from the princeton bureau, the senior freight transportation and logistics analyst. what is the number one earnings driver for fedex? >> thanks for having me. it is all about e-commerce. e-commerce is the engine behind the parcel industry and express industry. e-commerce is growing in the mid teens to the upper teens in
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terms of the annual year on the global basis and that will feel its network. as you mentioned, amazon is a big player in that. they account for 3% to 5% of fedex or ups revenues. it wouldn't be a huge blow to them. at the end of the day, what amazon is doing is building capabilities so they are not as reliant on the fedex and ups's and the dhls of the world. joe: two people see it long-term potentially replacing ups? as the prospects of that and how much of a risk is that two companies like fedex and ups? i think the risk is externally small. obvious they come amazon is going to get more and more into the logistics market. every large retailer has its own logistics business.
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walmart is one of the largest operators of trucks in the united states. they still use of the trucking companies -- other trucking companies. for fedex, they are still in the market buying transportation services. we believe that amazon is trying to rely a little less on those companies. at the end of the day free delivery of products costs the uv gel or money -- the e-retailer money. if they are able to take more stuff in-house and reduce overall costs, that will trickle down to the bottom line. scarlet: amazon açai, because that is out of fedex -- aside, because that is out of fedex's control, is how well it integrates tnt could what can they do to ensure that the integration is smooth and they can benefit him in? >> tnt needed a harder for long time with the spin out in 2011. it was thought that they would be gobbled up and fedex is able to close the deal. the number two provider, a $60
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billion express market. they will come in in year 2018 for fedex this year and probably won't see huge benefit. it could at $1.10 to the earnings in 2018. alix: when we look at fedex we tend to look at it as a barometer for the global economy. is that a legit comparison given the issues fedex is dealing with? >> it does. they are a huge player from one inthe largest ltl carriers the u.s., which is really tied to the industrial economy. fedex is a great page, if you ge,l, what is going -- gau if you will come of what is
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going on in the global economy. alix: all right, thank you very much. you can find bloomberg intelligence's analysis on the terminal. it is bi to find for coverage of various sectors and companies. scarlet: we have breaking news. there is a u.k.: on the eu showing the remain camp is 50% -- leave cap is- 46%. it is what we have seen since the tragic murder of jo cox. alix: 53-46, big difference. scarlet: the town at session highs right now. much more coming up. ♪
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scarlet: what'd you miss?
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at 6:00: our earnings p.m. eastern time. alix: and a speech at
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>> donald trump used his signature line your fire today. >> a message for his campaign manager, you're fired. areou're fired. >> and you fired. >> you are fired. >> go home. >> there is no place like home. donald trump will continue down the yellow brick road to cleveland. without a campaign manager. we have ow

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