-- 20 hours to go until the referendum. investors bet on a vote to stay. london markets brace for brexit. yellen leads the fed and retreats as she retreats -- as she signals another hike. welcome to "the pulse." live from bloomberg's european headquarters right here in london. i am francine lacqua. let's get to the markets.
this is what they are telling us. rebounding with the pound. oil a touch lower. global equities advancing slightly for a fourth day. the pound strengthening a touch. the final trading session before tomorrow. britney goes to vote for the membership of the european union . -- britain goes to vote for the membership of the european union. nejra: janet yellen has sketched a cautious view of the u.s. economy in the first of two days of testimony to lawmakers. the chair says she sees near and long-term fact is clouding the outlook or chi warned of the possible fallout if britain votes to leave the european union. >> this is a unique circumstance. this has no close parallel. it is hard to know what the consequences would be. there is uncertainty globally.
we operate in an uncertain environment. nejra: mario draghi says the ecb has plans in place in case the outcome of tomorrow's eu referendum starts market turmoil. >> we are trying to be ready to go with all possible contingencies. at this point, it would be very difficult to be more precise than that. we have done all of the preparation that is necessary. nejra: volkswagen boss is faced investors in the company's abm after the emissions scandal broke. a lawsuit filed in germany in behalf of a california pension fund over losses. vw share price is down 24% since admitting to cheating on emissions test last september. hong kong's richard: has told mann has -- richard
told bloomberg says a hike of 1% or 2% could help although he opposes higher taxes on individuals. the bill, hillary and chelsea clinton foundation is one of the organizations breached by russian hackers. the attacks on the foundations network as well as those of the democratic party and hillary clinton's presidential campaign compounds concerns about her digital security. that as the fbi continues to investigate the use of it personal -- use of a personal e-mail server when she was secretary of state. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. francine.oomberg, francine: polls open for the uk's referendum in less than 24 hours. both campaigns have entered the last stages as some polls remain the connect. in -- remain neck
in neck. >> by engaging the world. brits don't quit. >> if we vote to leave and take back control, i believe this thursday could be our countries independence day. [applause] francine: let's talk about brexit and the markets. guestt get that's my next -- is likely to be disappointed. welcome david zahn. david, great to have you on the program. the polls are split. markets are not pure to do we believe? david: the polls are telling us it is going to be finely balanced. markets will move aggressively, where as if we have a remain, i don't think much will happen. maybe have a slight relief rally. -- ifne: it seems people
we look at the wider implications, we are expecting more volatility on friday no matter which side of the argument wins. david: it comes down to how close the vote is. it is clear that if it is rain -- it is remain or brexit, it gives politicians and guidance. if it is finally balance, you can get into a lot of desk finely balanced -- finally balance, you can get into a lot of discussion over turmoil. francine: would you assume that people are hedged? -- wouldn't you assume that people are hedged? david: i don't think people are as hedged as one might think. we are not going to leave, i think there will not be as much of a relief rally as people are anticipating. francine: what happens to the
pound the day after brexit? david: the pound will be down 10%, 15%. in a brexit scenario, the euro walks down against the dollar. francine: doesn't the pound have to go down either way? the go the -- david: the fundamentals in the u.k. -- this , iitical uncertainty we have think that means the pound will probably stay where it is or go lower. i think your risk is skewed. francine: what is the legacy of this campaign going to be? david: the alexey is going to be the decisiveness. the tory party and the labour concern that this is going to be a fracturing. francine: will it help europe if remain actually wins? david: it may give politicians .ore of a pause
we give them a little bit and that was enough. pollsne: when i look the and see you have 50% of the then you look at france, there is so much euro skepticism, that if it is not now, but six months from now, we will have to be a new reformed europe. david: i think we are heading toward a new centralized euro. i think people want to vote for the more extremist governments. that is across europe. can't eu come together if brexit does not happen? david: it will be at a very slow pace? francine: what is your best trade? david: the long credits. the credit is underpriced in this market.
in europe mainly. that is where you get a good risk reward trade-off. you won't hit that badly if brexit doesn't happen. francine: david zahn, thank you. anna is standing by with a member of parliament who has the leading figure on the leave campaign. anna: thanks so much. smith --sk iain duncan iain duncan smith, great to see you on the program. i spoke to michael o'leary and he said if the u.k. leaves the eu, then the eu would fall apart. did -- that doesn't sound a good development. >> the thing that everyone is voting on is a simple vote. it is who governs you.
i want to get back desk giveback government to the u.k. -- giveback government to the u.k. far.nk that has gone too 50% of our laws are made here. only 6% of british business does any business in the european union. first of all, it is who governs and that flows from their. on a business point, i am absolutely certain that when the second largest economy in the european union votes to leave, yes, it will see -- it will sent a shockwave. that will be a good thing. the european union is going in the wrong direction. look around, italy has not grown for two years -- for 10 years. greece stagnant. people cannot get health care increase at the moment. europe is not working. it needs to change.
we could not do it inside, so i hope we will change the direction and get them to realize it should be about trade and cooperation. anna: if it sets off a domino effect, would that be a development you are ready for? word.nges the we want european you -- change is the word. we want european union to change. european union has this ridiculous dream to create a super national's body -- supranational body, that has got to stop. many other countries, denmark, sweden, they have all said this is not right. my view is britain will have to set an example. i hope when we leave it will say, look, it is time to change. anna: they are very high unemployment rates. there also growth rates coming through this year.
the prime minister in spain is talking about 3% in spain. why the levels of unappointed there do not seem to be affecting the unappointed here? >> they are affecting migration here. a large number of spanish people are starting to come over. i don't blame them. don't get smoked by this barrage of sudden growth in some of these countries. european central bank has been dumping cash across the eurozone to try and get them moving again. they are talking about helicopter and money, the idea that you give more money out. this is a very expensive ross s. it is the -- expensive process. it is not the same as integral growth. this is about an artificial level of growth. i don't think it is sustainable. as the next governor of the bank of england has said, the worst
is yet to come. the head of the bdi and germany has come out -- in germany has come out and said that no matter what the politicians say, if the u.k. leaves, german industry will demand that they do a proper deal with the u.k. to make sure they have access to our markets, and we have access to there's. that tells you everything. they are all nonsense for mr. larry. -- mr. o'leary. trade will go on and we will do very well. anna: that might be what he had said. what if the politicians in europe say we are prepared to take a short economic price to make an example of the u.k. to discourage other countries. >> european union is in no capacity to do anything of the sort. they are marred an economic crisis hit what they need is more trade, not less. what they need is more access to markets.
my civil answer is -- and i have been going -- my simple answer is -- i was in germany two weeks ago to debate with them. all of the businessman said exactly the same. they said we want more to be trade-- we want more free . they will talk anything they can to stop us going. afterwards, they will have to get down into the simple deal which is to want to trade and cooperate, let's get on and do it. anna: there has been a lot of talk about who will run the conservative party? who will be the prime minister if there is a vote to leave? -- agreedport on any to sign a letter and have david cameron remain? what will you do to calm them about who runs the country? >> i have been open about this.
i'm concerned the prime minister was elected last year. in that election manifesto was a referendum on european union. side. have taken one he said he would be bound by the result and we will get on together. if the british people vote to get back their government, he will get on and implemented. -- and implement it. anna: have you been talking about hedging and financial markets -- hedging in financial markets? >> we talked to economists all the time. we talked to the bank of england. the point i made was the last one they did was an unbalanced report. it was a breach of his requirement being impartial. last year he talk about the real risks of remaining which are the eurozone crisis, real pressure on our growth, this time around
in this report they left off all of the risks and then he talked about some of the risks that might happen if we left, if everything went wrong and my answer is the truth is nor he or anyone else that got their conditions wrong in the past, the job of the bank of england is to do what the politicians tell it to do. at the end of the day, they have to help to make sure that britain after we leave actually thrives and prospers. anna: he has pointed out that the biggest risk to the u.k. economy is brexit. >> honestly, i said this openly, i do think that every act hastion in the 1990 a responsibility -- 1998 act has a responsibility to be impartial. all of the risks that may remain including the problem in the
eurozone which are enormous. smith, leavecan campaigner, we have one day to go. francine, we will see you later on. francine: what a great interview could also great to catch up to -- to catch up and get his side. stay with "the pulse." the plan to buy solar city is that'sgly obviously blinding -- blindingly obvious is -- obvious. we have brexit debate. on lord bill of moria. we are live in brussels and berlin. ♪
mitsubishi murders has forecast a for your loss -- mitsubishi motors has forecast a four-year lost. including payments to major clients and suppliers. it will be the carmaker's first loss in eight years and comes after falsifying consumption tests as far back as 1991. -- has reported a climb, the marked down merchandise that was not selling in europe because of wet and wintry weather. -- the disbarment store change rebuild -- the department store sales-- like for like were down in the 15 weeks up to june 11. the margin for 20 16 will be lower than expected. that is the business flash.
francine: still with us is david zahn. we heard that iain duncan smith together. marketsd about how the -- how much of this market is driven by brexit concern? how much does it have to do with central banks? it is negative yields pushing down some of the -- david: we have a huge cutie program. -- huge qe program. everybody else has rates on hold. it is driving yields much lower. in that environment, everybody is searching for yields. where can they get something? it is not going to be in a jgb. that pushes people into other bonds. francine: what is the prescription from central banks? that is not -- this is not the real market value.
do they hiked rates around the world just to shock the consumer? this is something that is getting more attraction -- more traction. david: i would agree that negative rates are not the ideal way to do it. in several cases, we do not have the fiscal offset so the governments under -- are not doing enough to stimulate the economy which means they have to get more aggressive. negative rates is one way to do that as well as qe purchases. francine: david zahn, thank you. has agreed tosla buy -- the announcement saw a big moves. jumping more than 15%. we'll get more that shortly. let's get back to westminster and speak to anna edwards who has a very important guest. anna. anna: thanks very much.
another guest, talking to us from the leave side on the other side of the debate. tice.s richard good to see you again. i wondered if you could give us your sense, we are just one day away, how you think this is going? europe on a slightly different side of the campaign. it is -- campaign. richard: it is very close. as boris said, if you have confidence and belief in britain, people will vote to leave. the reasons are clear. not only economically, we will regain our sovereignty, our control, i will laws, our destiny. yes, it is going to be close. ultimately on the night, leave will win about five points. anna: you are a moneyman.
some people in the markets have already made their mind up. talking to the bookies, we have heard a lot about -- does that worry you? the best bet on the market is three to one to leave. the end of the day, businesses will continue to strive and work and earn money. business will always find a way of getting weight -- getting things done. it is interesting to hear a leading figure. early this morning, german business would insist a deal is done between the eu and the u.k. sensen the sense -- in a it's out all of the -- what we're hearing from voters is they have written it off because they know it is ludicrous. anna: it might not be the businesses that decide that.
it might be the politicians making the -- making decisions. richard: they have elections next year and they want to be reelected. to be reelected, they have to listen what businesses say. there is strained within the german political system -- there is strain within the german political system. anna: what will have been the fawlty thing in the campaign? thing ineen the faulty the campaign? --sco they wanted us richard: they wanted us to run a campaign focused on -- it can cross as a blue on blue, gunfire campaign. they have listened to criticism that we have made. there are more female voices. --re is no question
immigration, there's no question about that. if we lose, it will be very close. the nation is very split on this issue. we will hold the remain camp to account over the subsequent years. we'll see what happens within the eu. and ago one think they have not done on the leave side is to say how high immigration -- anna: one thing they have not done on the leave side is to say how high immigration will be. richard: is not about how high the number. -- it is not about how high the number. immigration was not an issue. suddenly, the numbers went through the roof. it is not about a specific number. it is about gaining control and bringing in the skills we need. anna: richard, thank you for joining us. fran. francine: anna, thank you so much.
party's on! know what your pets are up to with xfinity home. xfinity. the future of awesome. see the secret life of pets, in theaters july 8th. francine: welcome to "the pulse." live from london, i have francine lacqua. yellen has sketched a cautious and uncertain view of the u.s. economy in the first of two days of testimony to lawmakers, that she sees near and long-term factors clouding the outlook. she also warned of the possible fallout if britain votes to leave the european union. >> this is a unique event that has no close parallel.
it is hard to know what the consequences would be. there is always uncertainty domestically and globally. we operate in an uncertain environment. draghi says the ecb has plans and place an case the outcome of the referendum sparks market turmoil. >> we are trying to be ready to cope with all possible contingencies. point, it would be very difficult to be more precise than that. i think we have done all the preparation that is necessary now. nejra: the uk's membership of the european union hangs and the balance as politicians enter their final day of campaigning. the current mayor of london and his predecessor sparred over the impact of investment on britain. world,anies around the more than 60% of the worlds leading companies have their
europe headquarters here in london. half of our exports go to europe. boris, why have you changed your mind? >> we have had a tremendous running down of our city. >> we are proud of our city. >> the astonishing thing is that the remains side continually underestimate our ability to make deals on our own. nejra: from big business to small business, labour party mp argued that leaving the eu was for the better. saide bank of england has for every 10% you have a suppression of 2% on wages so for small wages you are better off to take control and leave. ceo hasgen's apologized to shareholders since the emissions scandal broke.
they are vowing to address changes that contributed to the scandal. the share is down almost 24% since admitting to rigging last september. terminal users can follow that agm on live go. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. markets were up and now they are flat. let's head to the bloomberg with mark barton. mark: stocks little changed, the final campaign -- day of campaigning before the referendum. 80% chance of a bremain. i did a chart showing you the best-performing u.k. assets since the referendum was called on february the 20th. index,g with the pound
it is the pound gauge against seven currencies and it is up by 1/10 of 1% but only 10 days ago it was down roughly three and a half percent. as have seen a big rebound the change in fortunes of the remain camp occur. indexitish sovereign bond has seen a return of 2% since david cameron called the referendum on february 20. the best-performing asset class is the ftse 100, up 4.7%. underperforming the s&p 500 which is up by 9% over the same period. let's look at the implied volatility. it is gaining after two days of losses, still below last week's highs. two-week probability is also gaining. one month volatility is declining after gaining yesterday. all three measures hit record highs last week. a big day tomorrow.
this is a wonderful chart showing how gold is following the referendum more than it is following yellen. you would think after her comments yesterday gold would have risen but it is falling as the odds of a brexit decline. gold is declining as well. gold of course has dropped two and a half percent since last thursday when it reached its highest levels january 22. francine: mark barton with your asset check. britain's membership in the european union hangs in the balance ahead of tomorrow plus referendum. -- tomorrow's referendum. karan bilimoria is a remain campaigner and liam fox is supporting a vote to leave. thank you so much for joining us. you are on opposing sides of the debate but first a very innocuous question. we have the sun today and the
front page with the queen on it and it is getting more and more personal. they decided to put david say,on on the front and look into his eyes and vote leave. no matter what happens on friday, what will be the legacy? >> i think to bring the queen into this is absolutely wrong. she stays neutral and all of these matters. the situation is so serious that i do not think people have grasped the magnitude of this. we are being told vote leave and take control. take control? we already have control. vote leave because we have lost our sovereignty. we have our sovereignty at the moment. the euro is a disaster but we are not in it. we are in the european union that we drank our beer in pints. so nobody in miles can tell us exactly what to do. francine: is confusion over what
the vote is on tomorrow, is that fair? much of thek so debate has gotten personal and this increasing personalization of it will leave a legacy of that or nest that will be difficult to overcome. as we introduced this huge element of personality into it, i think we have forgotten the basic arguments. i want to leave the european union because i want to get control of our lawmaking and i object that the european court can overrule a democratically elected parliament. i want to get control of our borders and our money. we are affected by the euro because our budgetary contribution is a reflection of our economic growth compared to what is happening on the continent, and with free movement, the bigger the tearing up of the social fabric of europe, the more likely we are
to get migration. karan: there is one very important point, this country has benefited from migration. we have the highest level of employment on record and the lowest level of unemployment on record. it is close to full employment in spite of having 3 million people from the european union working here. without them we would not be the fifth largest economy in the world. britain has benefited from being in the eu. if you look at when the single market started in 1993, the cumulative gpa just gdp growth, we are the highest. while the european union has been in a mess, while the euro has caused a disaster we have got our act together and we have done well despite it. why jeopardize that? think the arguments are quite clear that the european union is a failed political
furtherand it will try integration, it will try to deal with the euro disaster. we have lost our veto on the treaty in advance because the prime minister gave it away in the renegotiation. because we have uncontrolled eu migration we are unable to determine who we get in from other countries. francine: as an outsider, it feels like sometime it is an immigration/sovereignty versus economic debate. and i wrong? karan: you have to look at all of the issues. you have to look at things and the balance. i am a eurosceptic. there are many things about the european union i do not like. on the other hand, we are part of a 500 million block and the whole world, whether it is now the head of the federal reserve or india or america or european countries are all saying to us, stay in.
60 percent of countries outside the european union have their headquarters in the u.k. and we are the second largest recipient of investment. if we leave the european union we will lose that. the country relies on an ordinance. there are two illogical points. being in the european union will cause a success. we were only getting inward investment because we are in the eu, why are we getting the lion's share of it? clearly there are other factors in play including the fact that we have a skilled economy, better commercial law, some of the best universities. i'm not surprised that multinational countries what us to stay, but they are not the ones having their laws made by foreign courts. sovereignty for me is key. francine: everything is difficult to model and we have
spoken to some voters who are confused about what they are voting on. you are talking different languages. why are the polls so close? karan: this is not an either/or. tomorrow each u.k. person has to take a box. karan: the argument, what lamb said, it is not should we be in the european union and trade in the european union or the rest of the world? we are already doing both. it is not either/or. francine: i understand that we have had both sides. both sides in a certain sense make sense. why are the polls so close? how can we understand what is going? liam: there is a genuine
division of opinion and the issues do overlap. karan: people have been misled. francine: by what, the campaign? karan: 350 million pounds a week is a completely ridiculous figure. this figure, this expensive project, 8 billion is barely 1% of our publics running. -- public spending. let's give liam fox a right of reply and i will ask you if you are so certain of that argument, why the polls are not moving. liam: there is a genuine division in the country about where our future lies in some of the hyperbole, especially the early parts of the campaign of the remain side that that would increase a risk of a war in europe, i think people stopped listening.
i think their arguments were so incredible. i think you had a big divide and the campaigns turned into a great deal of white noise for a lot of voters, and i think a lot of voters have gone back to their initial preconceptions and are voting not only details, but what they see as direction for the country. francine: will they think about the economy and the future of their household or sovereignty? liam: i think they will think of a whole range of issues together. an aggregate of that, do you want to be in a britain that is more integrated into europe or less integrated? for most voters that is the simple choice. karan: this whole project fear is both sides. the economy could collapse, edward -- in word investment test in wired investment could collapse. investment could
collapse. we are not going to have a european army. we are not going to have a european superstate. francine: do you think david cameron can survive unless he gets a 54% vote for remain? liam: i think it would be right for him to stay on even if there was a leave vote because i think it would provide political stability. francine: will he? liam: i think he will because he will see it as his duty to see it through. wewe get a leave vote, probably have fewer than six months before an article 50 of the lisbon treaty is triggered and we will have two years after that. there will have to be a transition and i think that will best be helped by the prime minister staying in place. karan: the chances are this is going to be a narrow remain victory. call,almost too close to it i think people will make a
decision in the end of what is the less risky option. it is not as if things are falling apart in britain. things are going very well in the economy. francine: is there a plan b for cobra beer? karan: if we leave the european union we will be a peddler in an ocean. if you have a business i imagine you would have spoken to lawyers? karan: we will have to adapt to whatever happens as a business but we manufacture in belgium and the u.k. and india and we have benefited from the european union. jcbeep hearing dyson and being thrown to us by the brexit. what about the 151% of the ftse small business who say it is better for us to stay? jaguar land rover -- francine: every day there is a new letter written right either
side of the debate. karan: i think this idea -- liam: i think this idea that the eu can -- the u.k. cannot survive outside of the eu is nonsensical. do we want to be able to be to bele or do we want tied into a 20th-century model of a block? francine: you can see up to the markets, investors are differing and they do not have a vote. what is your message to them if there is a brexit? there might be a lot of turmoil in the market. liam: if there is a brexit it is because of the will of the british people. francine: what is your message? liam: britain will still be one of the open, most prosperous workforces in the world. money can be made and money can be moved in london will still be the capital. karan: i believe that this is a
phenomenal country. britaind respects because we are fair and we do not run away from things. if europe is falling apart i would rather be at the table helping europe. we are not quitters and we should carry on. there is too much risk and that means loss of jobs to everybody. francine: i could keep you on for two hours that we do need to wrap. thank you, gentlemen. lord karan bilimoria and liam fox. we speak to michael fuchs, a close ally of a german chancellor and we are live in berlin and brussels next. ♪
francine: german investor afterence unexpectedly -- it showed the remain cap gaining ground. michael fuchs is on the phone with us from germany. i know you have been outspoken in the past saying you think the u.k. should remain in the eu. would it not make it easier for the rest of the european countries to have a stronger union if brexit were to happen? no, i really want to stipulate again that it is absolutely necessary that we have the u.k. in the eu.
germans need the u.k. personally and i will tell you why. there are only two countries in the whole of europe that are oriented in a free market situation, germany and the u.k. i need the help of the u.k. to maintain a market oriented structure which is not easy without the u.k. germany needs to have the u.k.. goodr two, it will not be for us because we are exporting a lot of goods to the u.k. year it is like 820,000 a from germany into the u.k. do you want to have tariffs on that? i do not think it is something you want to have. we have to see if the u.k. is not a member then there will be different rules. francine: one of the things the pro brexiteers has said is that the eu will not portray terrace.
you believe they will ask for tougher trade tariffs and do believe that anglo merkel and france while holland -- angela merkel and france will hold lines have a plan -- francois hollande have a plan? michael: look at norway, for instance. norway is still paying a lot of money into the eu and the u.k. has to do the same. they are perhaps paying as much as the u.k. is paying so the u.k. is not saving and a single pound. there will be different rules for the u.k. if the u.k. is stepping out. you cannot be a member in a club and having roles and outside of the club, having the same. i want the u.k. to stay in and to help us make eu more flexible and more competitive. that is something we could do
together. many of the cameron roles that he has had -- rules he has had in the last debate are very good. all of these things are necessary. francine: they seem to have made the eu better. are you worrying about the euro skepticism that is reaching other countries? does the eu need to be reformed? michael: i am very much worried about it. it is also austria, and you can see it in sweden and finland. you can even see it in the u.s., so that growing nationalism is something that worries us a lot and we do not want to have it. we should not come back to the old days. we should really work on it and get closer together without being too bureaucratic. that is something i hate as much as your country hates it. we have to work on it. definitely one thing is for
sure, we need to be together and not too nationalistic. francine: a final point, the polls are saying that the vote is very split. the markets believe the remain argument will win. what are your thoughts from germany? michael: i really hope that remain is going to win but polls are polls so you never know what is coming out. we have had polls in the right direction but also in the wrong direction so i am still very much worried until i see the result. i want to quote soros, it is going to be a black friday is the u.k. is stepping out. i really want the u.k. to stay in because it is necessary and again, it comes against any nationalism. francine: michael fuchs, deputy leader joining us from berlin. let's move to the broader picture. if there were to be a brexit, how would it be implemented? ryan chilcote joins us from
brussels. like,l, what is the mood panic or calm? mixed. think it is a lot of the brussels bureaucrats share michael's wary and are concerned about the polls, and you can see that shift. at the beginning of the whole campaignferendum u.k. the eu said they were going to stay out of it but over the next -- over the past few weeks we have seen them sending a message that we would like u.k. to remain. if you ask a belgian man or woman on the street what they think about the referendum, most of them are focused on the football game tonight, belgium versus sweden. belgium has to win or at least draw to advance. francine: ryan, very quickly,
what is the plan in place? do leaders have a plan b they are just not sharing? ryan: they have a plan here but more importantly, it is the constituent countries, germany and france namely. we know they are going to have some kind of show of unity but we know that it might also be confined to that. the french, their preferred reaction would be to deepen ties amongst the eurozone countries to share the burden more. merkel wouldangela like to see more of a focus on the political alliance of the european union. she is concerned about issues like the refugee crisis. together, why they do not have a master plan is because they are not sure any of the other countries in the european union would support it. beforet get something tuesday's meeting but they hope they do not need a plan. francine: wing it, i like that.
kingdom, this united 24 hours before the u.k. referendum the markets that on remain. stocks rebound attach. markets in london brace for brexit fueled trades. janet yellen leads the fed and retreat and signals a high bar for another hike being one of the six seeing one move in 2016. i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in london, all in london ahead of the me