tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg June 24, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
>> this is an example of the market getting it wrong. >> markets have been very wrong. >> they have got it wrong again. >> spectacularly called this wrong. >> the bookies got it so wrong. >> the polls got it wrong. >> everybody has got it wrong. >> why we bothering telling us what the polls are saying, they are wrong. >> the polls a wrong. re wrong. >> it turned out to be completely wrong. >> every prediction has been wrong, right? >> they were wrong. >> over and over and over and over and over and over and over
and over and over and over and over again. ♪ john: the words of the immortal britney spears -- we did it again. lesson number one, never trust your bookie. the brexperts all said it would never happen. the world was shocked this morning by the news that the brits the part of the european union. the is the work decision, one with many implications across the pond and here at home. we will cover this story from all angles for what it might mean for the future of eu and the america presidential race. our friend, since the days the european union, will be my wingmen as we digest this stunning position of his brexit,en to exit, or
stage right. there was an online poll that the betting odds were in favor of the u.k. staying in the eu and you yourself said you thought in all likelihood you would remain. here is the question outside of many catchphrases -- what did we miss? >> we missed a lot. yesterday i came on the program, you kept on pushing us, what would happen if we leave? probably not going to happen. again, my stance was you would be surprised if they go. it was going to be close. presidency a trump -- you should be surprised, but not shocked. john: there was a lot of instructive lessons but one was that polling was messed up in capturing the degree of
resentment that western democracies have right now. -- how upset they are at elite. s. >> incredibly upset. unbelievably, young people. voted theed people other way. the interesting thing about -- youn referendums don't have a previous brexit poll to get a sample from. by any reasonable scale, unimaginably bad. ihn h.: from this distance -- did not cause this but i think we missed the scale of the failure, the political failure of david cameron and jimmy jeremy corbyn. how voters will act is hard to
know but when you look at the quality of the campaign run by those guys, corbyn basically askected like he didn't care. labour was a mostly more than anyone else. john m.: his whole stance was the european union is ghastly, horrible. john h.: not powerful. john m.: cameron was someone who ran out of luck. he won the last election, the previous election, and then suddenly it went wrong. one of the interesting things from the american perspective is all these people, they were told how dangerous it would be. they were told that sterling will die, we will have a recession. they still did it. they said that as it. i don't is it. the danger for hillary's people will say -- john h.: we will get to that and in a minute.
david cameron led the campaign to stay in the eu, stepped out dinaryde the brextor announcement that he would lead by october saying that it should be led by someone else. mr. cameron: i think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction. i will do everything i can as prime minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months, but i do not think it would be right for me to be the captain that fearsterrers our cy to the next destination. i do believe it is in the national interest to have stability and new leadership. john h.: the reverberations have been felt in the united states where president obama spoke
today in california. president obama: i think yesterday's vote speaks to the ongoing changes and challenges raised by globalization, but u.k.'s relationship with the eu will change, one thing that will not change is our relationship with the nation's. ts. the eu will be one of our indispensable partners. john h.: negotiations will now commence in a hurry if the jilted continentals have their way. brussels is trying to calm other nervous nation's. netherlands is talking about following britain's lead. we did talk about the politics in britain which is now totally irrelevant at this point, but my biggest question is is this the beginning of the unraveling of the eu? john m.: possibly.
we are already seeing france and germany beginning to argue. merkel says i want a quick divorce. she also says maybe we need to reform the eu. she is taking one lesson away from this. britishtally, the thought it was not that good and that is part of it. she wants to push through reforms. leader who said it is impossible to persuade francois hollande to do anything. john h.: if france were to withdraw, what would be left of the eu? -- next it is more weekend, the spanish elections. she wants to have a referendum. netherlands are making noise. you come back to this money fundamental thing --
germany wants a strong union. at some point, there is this huge problem about what to do with france because germany cannot have peace in its mind without france. john h.: somebody that is going to be one of the main competitors to secede cameron. teresa may, it seems like she will be a strong contender. corbyn probably has a go to, right? john m.: he was a spectacular underperformer in this. the inability to persuade these things because what happened in these elections, the northern heartland -- john h.: labor heartland. john m.: they voted overwhelmingly to leave. your jobs may go. nobody managed to make that case. they have a better line into those people than corby. n. john h.: i look forward to talking up the economic
questions. donald trump, bringing us closer to home, just so happen to be in the united kingdom today. it was not a political trip. he was checking on his golf course in scotland. in a press conference this morning after he described the greatest par-three ever in the world, he reacted to the brexit news comparing the backers to some of his own supporters in america and shutting off concerns about what the move would me foan for the currency market. mr. trump: i see a parallel. people want to see borders. that one people pouring into their country that i don't know who they are or where they come from. they have no idea. i like to see people take their country back and that is what is happening in the united states and i think you see that. that is what is happening in many places in the world. they are tired of it. they want to do more business. when the pound goes down, more
people are coming. when the pound has come down, let's see what the impact is. john h.: hillary clinton put out a statement calling for this is a time for calm, experienced leadership in a conference call. she took aim at her republican opponent, saying trump was self-congratulatory and worried that the policy was reckless and manic person that will drive us off the cliff. >> this is another reminder of the potency of the trump message. >> this is a very ominous sign for the people in the u.s. >> it is a cautionary tale of the clinton campaign. >> if this works in england, it could work for donald trump. >> what is different about the americatrump's
first's slogan. >> at the same time, those who wanted to leave the european union, their slogan was take back our country. there are parallels, chris. >> hundo p. john h.: you are a british person but spent a lot of time in this country. my question for you is what do you think, what do you think should americans -- what of the lessons americans should draw from the brexit and how could apply for the next he months? few months? john m.: britain sat there, you wake up and you have done this thing. thismericans, you look at and it is along those lines. it is exactly what the people were singing. theaying. i will not take these warnings -- i just want to send a message
to politicians i am angry with. i want a way to do it. that is some ways the worrying thing. john h.: the slogan -- take our country back. stronger together, hillary clinton slogan. it seems to me hillary clinton has some things to think about. the demographics, the working class, non-college educated, white, older -- they were for leaving. john m.: the same type of thing. john h.: there are lots of similarities. two issues -- one is this could economy.s for a bad she have to deal with that with the fact on the ground. the other thing is the remaining forces in britain basically, as you have said, they said fear of the unknown. you don't want to take this into the dark. voters said yeah.
hillary clinton has been playing them fear against trump so far. but she demonize trump, needs a positive vision to take the country because that is what the remaining people did not do in britain. john m.: cameron failed with that. he did not get the inspirational thing. this is a cosmopolitan looking at britain -- immigration, the single thing that killed them. one of the reasons the britain economy has done so well because they have attracted people from everywhere. that is this a margaret hillary may make. john h.: what is this eu uncertainty doing to the financial markets in the u.s. and overseas? we will talk about britain's existential crisis right after these words from our sponsors. ♪
>> june 23 will become a national holiday and we will call it independence day. the country requires fresh leadership. britain will continue to be a great european power. john h.: in the immediate wake of the u.k. vote to leave the eu, stocks in london and europe plunged. joining us now for an exclusive interview for the financial markets is bonnie. how bad was it? yesterdayople left with high hopes and when the first votes came in it was an oh, dear.
by 11:00, one of the major areas started reporting and on to the major big cities, it became -- yeah, the pound literally dropped 18 figures. what, thehis was worst they in european markets an since 2008? vonnie: for the pound, it was the worst since 2008. swing was ahe $1.46 -- it could be in event for the ages. saw stock indexes on mainland europe dropped 8%, 6% for germany. banks, which are really the
barometer of this whole affair were down by about 10%. john h.: as someone inside the financial markets, going into monday, the weekend is going by. no major news will occur. people will absorb what happened. what happens on monday? how do the markets begin -- what is the mindset, the psychology of the markets? speaking with someone who is been in the market for decades, made a lot of money, speaking about the markets today and he said people do not know aw strongly -- it was disappointed but not worse than 2010. he actually said that this afternoon. the results, the eu bond trader, he said it is the storming of the gates by the finance.
he said it would probably end in yields. john m.: at some point, he will keep going down? once you look at the problem at the british economy, without people wanting to invest there. vonnie: this is the short-term. in the immediate term, it is about how fast they can get it done which is probably not fast at all. pound-wise, some of the best strategists say 20% valuation is likely. emerging-market countries, we will probably see more interventions. john h.: you are really great and really scary, kind of terrifying. thank you anyway. more from donald trump's golf course press conference. also, our interview with tevorer noah about the state of the american political system. we will be right back. ♪
mr. trump: it is a very historic day. one of the biggest votes. lighthouse which is a very important building in florida and scotland. we have made certain changes to the course. we fully renovated the course. brand-new sprinkler system, the highest level. john h.: that was donald trump, billionaire, at his golf course in scotland. joining us now for some straight talk is nbc correspondent on the trump beat katie. my question for you is, for a lot of people watched the press conference this morning, it seemed surreal for him not to
address the brexit vote until last until making a statement. tell me what it was like to be there and what was especially surprising on the ground. katie: i'm on hour 14 so i hope you will excuse me. you're right. it was . trump landing in political chaos brieflking about a very amount of reporters to talk about it but when he came out it was like nothing in the world was wrong. everything was hunky-dory. donald trump talking about his resort in that is why the reporters are year. here. talking about the sprinkler system, how they moved the holes on the golf course. then, when he opened it up to reporters, he was asked about brexit and that is when he started acknowledging that there
was a global, potential crisis going on. donald trump even saying the pound, it could get devalued, that would be good for him because more tourists will come overseas to this golf course. voters for taking back their country, the same message he has been hitting on the campaign trail. immigration, trade, a sense of nationalism. the campaign, despite the surreal, they are seeing the vote in the u.k. as a potential sign they are tapping into this anti-globalization wave that they can capitalize on in the state. s. john h.: the clinton campaign attacked him for the comments he made about benefiting from the fall of the pound, saying this is typical of donald trump. he only cares about himself. another example of why he is not suited to be president. does he care about that kind of
criticism? katy: it does not seem like he does. here andhy we were whether he agrees with the accusations that this is one big brand, or rather than a campaign for a public servant or if it is both. this is the ninth trump property he has taken reporters do in the past year. trump towers, the westchester golf course, the d.c. hotel, here, the winery and tomorrow we will be in aberdeen and that is number 10. it does feel that way, like we are seeing the best of donald trump's very lavish life. when we asked him about that, he says this is what i will do for the country. this is how the country will end up living if i'm in charge. for a certain voter, that is an appealing message. they see dysfunction in washington, dilapidated
infrastructure, their own homes they wish they were able to afford and then they see donald trump as this marvelous -- with his marvelous the states estates. that is for a certain segment of the population, but there are others that are seeing this as self proving. john m.: tell me about the response of the scots and britishes, because it seems bizarre. he seems like a creature from your outer space. katy: we were remarking that maybe donald trump will call on the american reporters more that he does not call on so much because the british reporters are bound to be much more brutal. the british press, no holds barred. deal the called and a few of them but when he did there were -- he only called on a few of them but there were some snickers.
reporters asked him, the council members, he could not do that. mp of scotland, did not show up. some major players in local politics here were not here for donald trump's speech. he is not a very popular figure here, but the reality is, his anti-globalization message, anti-immigration message is something that is playing here. john h.: katy tur popular everywhere. coming up, our exciting interview with the situation with todd kruk. we will be right back with that. ♪
little i know about economics, the european union and the case for the european union. 25 years ago. you explain to me how bad this is. how bad is this? how worried should we be? >> pretty worried. potentially it is a catastrophe. there is a wide range of possible outcomes here. the turmoil we're seeing today is due to the fact it came as a shock. none of this was priced in, which is odd. once that subsided, once people got their minds around the process, there are lots of things to worry about, lots of ways it can go wrong. -- if thisange in contagion spreads and begins to
look as if other countries may entertain the possibility of exit europe is in big trouble. britain is in big trouble because it needs a lot of investment to finance its deficit. abouts now in jeopardy the future trading regime in the eu. there is a risk in europe. it could spread. ae financial distress has terrible habit of spreading. there's a big risk here. we should be worried. there are things that can be done to mitigate the risk. bad things could happen. >> which of the countries are you most worry about at the moment? spain, this weekend, that is the first worry. how is that going to factor into spain selection?
looking further, it is what people in europe will be most worried about, the italian politics. they have a constitutional referendum later this year. over this result in britain. then you have france. , the eu is less popular in france than in britain. there is a lot here that can go wrong. this is quite a shock to the european system. they are going to attempt to form an election in the tory party. we might have two new heads of the two major british parties who are going to have to try to put the economy back together in some way.
treaties,of trade deals, agreements. describe the challenge for whoever it is who ends up running the tory party, how big is the economic challenge? >> it is huge. britain has been in the system for 45 years. it is woven through the british legal system. i've seen part of the complaints . , it is immensely bound up with the european system. it isn't just a question of renegotiating a trade deal with europe. britain has to renegotiate trade
deals with all its other trading partners. that work was outsourced to the eu. whereof are these people going to be found? it has to be done quickly. on greaterthis drags the risk the uncertainty will agitate the markets and there will be unseen problems. have clinicaly we turmoil as well. is an issue. problem withsible .reland that may change.
it is going to be negotiated. all these things have to be done simultaneously. there's a colossal work load. they have to do it while the country is in a state of sin of paralysis -- semi paralysis. if you imagine a set of trade proposals donald trump says they will be added the front of the coup. eue.u i had not given that much thought. i could see that happening. the risk and everything we are discussing here is immense. there are some opportunities. that is one. that is something the brexit people will be keen to pursue. it will be interesting to see
whether the administration sticks with its line. if the u.s. sees an interest in helping to stabilize the situation it may feel it is in u.s. interest to bring that negotiation forward. there's a good relationship between the u.k. and the u.s.. we will have to see. john: clive crook, a delight to have on the show. thank you for that. have jonathan friedman from "the guardian." ♪
>> june 23 needs to be a national bank holiday. we will call it independence day. >> the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction. >> britain will continue to be a great european power. >> our next guest is jonathan friedman of "the guardian. " london. us now from good to see you here. we just talked about the implications it was the most likely next prime minister of great britain. guest: i think it's boris johnson without any down.
a lot of people are surprised. if you read what he has written over the years, he would have been a natural remainder. it paid off. he won. the conservative party will choose the next prime minister. hostile toemselves the european union. they are going to hand the leadership to the person with the most anti-europe credentials. nobody can compete with boris johnson when it comes to that. barring a slipup, it is him. doesront runner always tend to slip up. i think it is looking like boris johnson. who will be his greatest challenger?
who is the most likely to give him a run for his money? jonathan: there will be. somebody.to be if he comes from the remaining campaign it may be theresa may. side that the remain took a back room role and kept herself out of the public view because she knew this was going to be coming. she made as few enemies as possible among the leave camp. if they can stomach somebody from remain it could be her. if it is someone from the other side, andrea appears alongside boris johnson, she was able to connect a little bit. in terms of sheer swagger, it doesn't work on me, but boris
johnson is naturally the front runner. he delights the tory party. he knows how to tickle them and he does it well. in the country it might be a different matter. >> what about the labour party? is jeremy corbyn under serious threat? jonathan: he's under pretty serious pressure. toot of people were able tolerate his style. it did have appeal in a bernie sanders way. the authenticity. this time that style clearly failed. leave.oted to he had one job, to get the vote out to remain and he didn't do it. inhimself was so halfhearted
his support for remain. he was from that wing of the party that had always been .ostile to the european project he did a bad job of hiding that. he was a tepid at the kids. the callsow cost because remain has lost. people are hostile to him who wanted to use the opportunity to say it is your fault. was with they young and on the left. they are attached strongly to the european project. they resent the fact there. hero lettheir previous them down. john: you spent a lot of time in .his country you are pretty smart about american politics.
everyone today is drawing parallels between the brexit and the truck campaign and wondering what this may for shadow for the american presidential election. with some experience, what do you see on that front? jonathan: there is one crucial common element. the kind of people who both donald trump and the brexit uphill. that arese people following trump. people who feel left behind, immigration.f people who have felt that have been priced out of their jobs through migrants. you hear the same refrains coming in both places. there were enough of those people once they joined with natural conservatives who had
their own ideological objections to push brexit over the edge. what i would say though that exist in of people , i wonder if demographically they can cross 50%. do they have the numbers to do that? to build a coalition. i would suspect they don't. in terms of the kind of people they are, there is a read across from the trunk people to the brexit whenave made the day here. john: tell me quickly about london. do you think london is divorced from the rest of the country? most certainly the rest of england. >> people have been feeling that anyway. new york is not like america. it has become a global city, detached.
there is never been more proof of that than these results. london voted to remain. that sense of detachment was striking. when scotland's minister said we didn't vote to leave, she said london, as if it was a different country. are people suggesting london should follow scott and sleet and breakaway. there's not going to be that secession but the sense that london is comfortable with diversity and comfortable with globalization because it has done so well. that sets it apart from the rest of the country. up next, we go to the daily show to show you our conversation with trevor noah. ♪
week mr. howe for and i went on the daily show to talk thet bloomberg politics and presidential race. afterwards trevor spent a few minutes with us to turn the tables on him. observationssting about the u.s. elections. [applause] your first convention. >> it will be my first convention. it will be my last convention. mark: comedy is not pretty.
you get once again. >> what have you learned that you did not know before? >> i spent my first two weeks apologizing to everyone who ran into me. you're not supposed to do that. that is seen as insulting to people. if i bump you it is a way we get to connect as human beings. john: you were not political comedian per se. this was not it. american scene was not your comedy. what have you learned watching this presidential election unfold? >> it is a broken system. that is the truth. america today, like most pioneers, they had the best system and the first system, the
first major constitution. nothing has been evolved. nothing has been changed. you have old software and people are wondering why it is falling apart. i do not understand the system do not count.ers the votes do not count. it is given to the person. donald trump was a good example. i struggle to understand how a person who 140% of the votes gets all of the vote for his party. john: winner take all. >> you do it in sports as well. the world european world, soccer, people have ties. you both you get in. nagy republican senator never voted for trump but he is technically my choice. need america 2.0. >> bernie sanders could have run as an independent.
because essentially have multiple candidates in this race. you have hillary clinton. you have donald trump. had rubio and cruise. you have for differing opinions. -- you see the and an election. but one side, people are forced to join a side that aligns with them but not fully represent them. which is a strange way to run a system. john: we need a parliamentary system. >> it makes a lot of sense. africa, we have a parliamentary system. >> i never thought i would be sitting with a black south african about american politics. mark: democracy perfected.
john: how far we've come. trunk, definitely. everyone in the world thinks it is crazy. racism, his xenophobia, it is blatant. the whole world says how is that a representative of half of your country? she has been so overshadowed. she's hillary clinton. because the world is not involved in the day-to-day running of your politics, clinton and her secretary of state, that is not part of the world story. we get the highlights. , those area, bush the things the world sees. donald trump is what the world sees right now. john: who is your favorite political guess? >> lindsey
graham was the best, the most candid. >> you straight into a >> ted and id cruz have a lot of differences. i'm getting better at this. [laughter] >> he was a really fun guy. i have differing views with your audience but -- john: what would your slogan be? >> my slogan would be half black, half white, let's do it again. yeah. thank you. our thanks to trevor noah and the daily show crew. we'll be right back. ♪
john: you said earlier with this was the first time you've been scared by a political event. john: it may be the end of the britain i knew. that cosmopolitan. john: head to bloomberg.com for all of our stories on brexit. hang with us all weekend long for special brexit coverage. thanks for doing with my bad puns. extreme apologies. you sayonara. ♪
i'm erik schatzker at the end of a day of business. it is a reality. the world is coming to terms with the future. without the people of the united kingdom. the decision to leave a shocker that defied the odds. equities around the globe were hammered. points.tumbled 610 the world index dropped by 5%. treasuries, gold and the dollar rallied as investors scurried for safe havens. and it is not over yet. scotland is threatening to breakaway from the united kingdom. here on bloomberg television we capture the drama in those stunning