tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg June 24, 2016 8:00pm-9:01pm EDT
>> this is, you know, an example of the market getting it wrong. >> markets have been very wrong. >> the post got it wrong again. >> post companies call this race spectacularly wrong. >> the bookies got it so wrong. >> the polls got it wrong. >> everybody has got it wrong. basically. tellinge keep bothering what the polls are saying, they keep getting it wrong. >> the polls are wrong. the figures were wrong. >> that turned out to be completely wrong. the political party has got it wrong. >> every prediction has been wrong, right? >> they were wrong. >> over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again.
♪ john: in the words of the immortal britney spears, oops, we did it again. lesson number one, never trust your bookie. the brexperts all said it would never happen. but the world was shocked this morning by the news that the brits indeed had voted to part from the european union. it is a historic decision, one with profound implications across the pond and here at home. we are going to cover this story from all angles for what it might mean for the future of eu and what it might foreshadow in the american presidential race. our friend john, since the days the european union was more of a theory that a fact will be my , wingman as we digest this stunning decision of his
countrymen to exit, or brexit, stage right. you go put out an online poll, the betting odds were overwhelming that the u.k. would stay in the eu, and you yourself said earlier this week, you thought in all likelihood you would remain. here is the question, outside of many catchphrases, what did we miss? let -- we missed a lot. a came on yesterday, we wandered outside, but not going to happen. and then my staff said you should be surprised if britain goes, not shocked. it will always be close, a vast amount of people. it was like a trump presidency you should be surprised if it happens, but not completely shocked. john h.: one of the things this shows, polling was messed up in a lot of ways, and it certainly messed up in capturing the degree of resentment that
a certain part of society, certainly all western societies are having right now. older voters -- how upset they are at elites and the prevailing order. john m.: incredibly upset. young people voted to remain. old, annoyed people voted the other way. the interesting thing about polls or referendums, they are always going to be hard. you don't have a previous brexit poll to get a sample from. by any reasonable scale, it was unimaginably bad. john h.: the other way from this distance, and i was not in britain through any time, but one time when i am not responsible -- i think we missed the scale of the failure the , political failure of david cameron and jeremy corbyn. they failed utterly as voters -- leaders. -- when you look at
the quality of the campaign run by romain and those two guys corbyn basically acted like he , didn't care what the outcome was. labour was a mostly more than anyone else. john m.: his whole stance was , look, the european union is ghastly, horrible. it is never going to work. john h.: and a strong rallying cry. not powerful. john m.: cameron was someone who ran out of luck. he won the last election, the previous election, and then he had done all these things, but suddenly, it will went wrong. one of the interesting things from the american perspective is all these people, they were told just how dangerous it would be. they were told, you look, sterling is going to die, every recession in the world, and they still thought, they just said, that is it. i don't want any more of this. and the danger for hillary is that people might say, -- john h.: we will get to that in a minute.
experts, not long after the final votes are tallied, u.k. prime minister david cameron, who led the campaign to stay in the eu, stepped out and made the brextordinary announcement that he would resign by october saying that the country should be led by someone else committed to this do it alone strategy. the britishn: people have made it clear decision to take a different required as such, they different leadership to take it in this direction. i will do everything i can as prime minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months, but i do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination. this is not a decision i have taken lightly, but i do believe it is in the national interest to have a period of stability, and then the new leadership required. john h.: the reverberations have been felt in the united states
where president obama addressed the brexit results today at the top of the summit in california. president obama: i think yesterday's vote speaks to the ongoing changes and challenges that are raised by globalization, but while the u.k.'s relationship with the eu will change, one thing that will not change is there a special relationship that exists between our two nations. that will enter. -- endure. the eu will be one of our indispensable partners. john h.: negotiations will now commence in a hurry if the jilted continentals have their way. the eu officials in brussels are now trying to calm other nerf's nations as oculus groups in france and the netherlands are talking about following britain's lead. john, we could talk about the politics of what happened in britain, which may be totally irrelevant, which may be a totally irrelevant country at this point. but my biggest question is is this the beginning of the unraveling of the eu? john m.: possibly.
we are already seeing that bit where france and germany are arguing about what to do. merkel says i want a quick divorce. let's get this thing out. she also says maybe we need to reform the eu. because correctly she is taking , one lesson away from this. fundamentally, the british looked at the eu and thought it was really not that good, and that is part of it. she wants to push through reforms. francois lawns has never -- hollande has never done anything -- there is conversation starting in the next two weeks. that is that short. john h.: if france were to withdraw from the eu, if the netherlands were to withdraw, what would be left of the eu at that point? james: it is more of next weekend, you have the spanish elections. le pen is writing was saying she wants a referendum. the netherlands is making noise. you come back to this fundamental thing -- germany would like to still have a
strong economic union, and they can do that. at some point, it faces this huge problem about what to do about france, because germany cannot have peace in its mind without france. john h.: and then there is the british question. boris johnson will be someone intending to take over from cameron. likehe woman who seemed she will be a strong contender. teresa may, it seems like she will be a strong contender. corbyn probably has a go to, right? james: corbyn was a spectacular underperformer in this. the inability to persuade these things because what happened in this election, the northern towns, the northern heartland, industrial towns -- john h.: labour heartland. john m.: they voted overwhelmingly to leave. if you vote for this your jobs , may go. nobody managed to make that case. ukip seems to have a better line into those people then corbyn. john h.: i look forward to talking up the economic questions. let's finish up here.
, the billionaire republican presumptive nominee, just so happened to be in the know to kingdom today. it was not a political trip. by any means. he was checking on his golf course in scotland. in a press conference this trump spent some time describing the greatest par-three ever in the world, he reacted to the brexit news , comparing its backers to some of his own supporters in america and shrugging off concerns about what the move would mean for the the world currency markets. trump: i really do see a parallel between what is happening here. people want to see borders. they don't necessarily want people pouring into their country they don't know where they come from, they have no idea. i would love to see people take their country back, and that is what is happening in the united states, you see it, that is what is happening in many of the places of the world. they are tired of it, they want to take their countries that.
if the pound goes down, they will do more business. the pound is going down, and let's see what the impact of it is. john h.: hillary clinton, who had urged the british to remain in the eu, calling this for a time of calm experienced , leadership in a conference call. her aides took aim at the republican opponent, saying trump was self-congratulatory , flippant about economic andoil, and a reckless erratic egomaniac that could drive us off the cliff. this would have implications for the impending brexit. >> this is another reminder of the potency of the trump message. >> i think this is a very, very ominous sign for the people in the united states. >> it is a cautionary tale for the clinton campaign. >> if this works in england, it could work for donald trump. >> what is different about today is the flow through between that britain first impulse and trump's america first's slogan. >> he shows up in slogan with a
great america again hat on. at the same time, those that wanted to leave the european union their slogan was take back , our country. there are clear parallels, chris. >> hundo p. john h.: john, you are a british person, but you have spent a lot of time in this country and no a middling about it at least. james: thank you. is, whatmy question are the lessons americans looking at the presidential race, what lessons for the draw from brexit and how could it be applied in the next few months? james: you should never be john highlands editor twice. if you sat there and you wake up you have done this thing which only donald trump would approve of. for americans, you look at this, and it is a long those lines. exactly as the people were saying, the same sort of, i in't want to take experts,
just want to send a message to politicians i am angry with, and i want a precise way to do it. i want a way to do it. that is some ways the worrying thing. john h.: the parallels are striking, make america great could have been the slogan of take our country back. , stronger together, hillary clinton's slogan. it seems to me hillary clinton has some things to think about. no doubt, on the demographics, working-class non-college , educated, white, older -- they were the ones who were for leaving. james: pennsylvania, those types of things. john h.: there is a lot of similarities. there could be serious economic repercussions. thewill have to deal with fact on the ground. the other thing is that the remaining forces in britain basically, as you have said, they played the fear card. they said fear of the unknown. , you don't want to take this
leap in the dark. voter said, yeah, we will take the leap in the dark. hillary clinton has been playing the fear card against trump so far. needs a positive vision to take -- she needs do not just demonize trump but also show the positive vision to take the country because that is what the remaining people did not do in britain. john m.: cameron sort of failed with that thing. he did not get the inspirational thing. this is a cosmopolitan looking at britain -- immigration, the single thing that really killed them. one of the reasons the britain economy has done so well because it has attracted people from everywhere. that is this an argument hillary might make, but she is in. john h.: coming up, what this eu 's uncertainty is doing to financial markets in the u.s. and overseas? we will talk about britain's existential crisis right after these words from our sponsors.
>> june 23 will become a national bank holiday, and we will call it independence day. >> the country requires fresh leadership. to take it in this direction. britain will continue to be a great european power. john h.: in the immediate wake of the uk's vote to leave the eu stocks in london and europe , plunged. joining us now for a brexclusive interview for the financial markets is vonnie. how bad was it? vonnie: it was worse because of how good it was yesterday. people remained with high hopes, and suddenly at about the seventh hour, it was an oh,
dear. by 11:00, one of the major areas started reporting, and onto the major big cities, it became -- yeah the pound literally dropped , 18 big figures. it was held overnight. it felt for 30 hours straight. john h.: this was what, the worst they in european markets since 2008? yeah, i mean -- vonnie: yeah, i mean for the pound, it was the worst since 2008. that said, the swing was a $1.46 but we round that not long ago, so it is not like this is an event of the ages. it could be worse next week, volatile indexes up to 75. you saw stock indexes on mainland europe dropped 8%, 6% for germany. not as much of the ftse 100, but
banks are really the barometer of this whole affair, down by 10%. john h.: as someone inside the financial markets as we head into monday, you are thinking about, the weekend is going by, no major news is going to occur. people are still absorbing what happened last night. what happens on monday? have the markets begin, and what is the mindset the psychology of , the markets? vonnie: people will look for opportunity. speaking with someone who has been in the market for a decade, literally speaking after market close, he was disappointed people just didn't know how strongly people felt in the likes of liverpool. like with china in 2010, not so much, but he was talking about stocks this afternoon. if you are talking about growth on bond at managers, this would make you feel like this indicates a finance by the populace. he said the lows are close to
1.25%. john m.: don't you feel at some point it will keep going down voter once the british begin, once you look at the british economy without people wanting to invest their? vonnie: we are talking this is , the short-term. in the immediate term, it is about how fast they can get it done, which is probably not fast at all. pound-wise, some of the best currency strategists say, 20% valuation is likely. for other countries, we will see interventions. john h.: you are really great and really scary him a kind of terrifying. i will say thank you, anyway. up next more from donald trump's , golf course press conference. also, my interview with the daily show host trevor noah about the state of the american political system. we will be right back. ♪
mr. trump: it is a very historic day. this was one of the big votes in the history of europe and scotland and everywhere. we've taken the lighthouse which is a very, very important building in florida and in scotland. we have made certain changes to the course. in addition to that, we have fully renovated the course. brand-new sprinkler system, the highest level. john h.: that was donald trump, billionaire, at his golf course cut press conference -- golf course press conference in scotland. joining us from the fairways is nbc correspondent on the trump beach, maybe an inspiring golf reporter katy tur. , my question for you is, for a lot of people watched the press conference this morning, it
seemed a little surreal in the way trump went about it, not addressing the brexit vote until after taking the opportunity to start with this statesmanlike filigree. give me a sense of what it is like to be there and what struck you as supporting -- surprising on the ground versus over here? i am like onf all, our 14, so i hope you will excuse my espresso. you're right. trump flying into scotland, landing in in political chaos and talking about a very brief thet when he came out for formal press conferences, it was like nothing in the world was wrong. everything was hunky-dory. donald trump talking about his resort, and that is the wife all of these reporters are here, talking about the sprinkled system -- bring system he renovated, all the holes on the golf course. as you played in the soundbite a minute ago. then, when he opened it up to reporters, then he was asked about brexit and that is when he
started acknowledging that there was a global, potential crisis going on. donald trump even saying that the pound, it could get devalued, that would be good for him because more tourists will come overseas to this golf course. he praised, as you know the , voters for taking back their country. the same message he has been hitting on the campaign trail. immigration, trade, and a sense of nationalism. the campaign, despite the surreal press conference, the campaign is seeing the vote here in the u k as a potential sign they are tapping into this anti-globalization wave that they can capitalize on in the states. john h.: the clinton campaign really trashed tromp, attacked him for the comments he made about benefiting from the fall of the pound, saying this is typical of donald trump. all he cares about is himself, his own bottom line. this is another example of white he is not suited to be president. does trump care about that kind
of criticism? katy: it does not seem like he does. i asked him at his press conference why were we are here, number one, and if he agrees with the accusations that this is one big brand, or rather than service,n for public or if it is in some ways, both this is the ninth trump property he has taken reporters do in the past year. there is trump towers, mora lago, the gc hotel, here in and tomorrow, we will be in aberdeen, and that will be number 10. it does start to feel that way like we are seeing the best of , donald trump's very lavish life. but what he does when we asked , him about that, he says this is what i'm going to do for the country. this is how the country will end up living if i'm in charge. for a certain voter, that is an extraordinary appealing message. they see dysfunction in washington, dilapidated
infrastructure, their own homes they wish they were able to afford, fix up, and then they see darla -- donald trump at this marvelous estate in scotland with marvelous golf courses, mara lago, and that is inspirational to a certain segment of the population, but there are others seeing this as very self-serving. john m.: tell me about the response of the scots and the british to this, because it must have seen completely bizarre. he seems like a creature from near outer space with a white hat. katy: you know what was interesting maybe donald trump , will call on the american arerters, more, me included , because british reporters are bound to be much more brutal. the british press, as you know no holds barred. , he only called on a few of them, but when he did, they were biting questions, snickers among british and scottish reporters.
to pointr asked and out the council members that showed up, he could not do that. the fmp did not show up, he did not show up. the major players in local politics out here were not here for donald trump's speech. he is not a very popular figure here or in the u.k. but the , reality is, his message, this anti-globalization message, anti-immigration message is something that is playing here. john h.: katy tur, popular everywhere. america and abroad, thank you for being on the show. coming up, our exciting interview about the situation with columnist todd kruk. we will be right back with that. ♪
the european union and the case for the european union. i learned from you 25 years ago. explain to me how bad this is. how bad is this? how worried should we be? >> pretty worried. potentially it is a catastrophe. there is a wide range of possible outcomes here. the turmoil we're seeing today is due to the fact it came as a shock. none of this was priced in, which is odd. once that subsided, once people got their minds around the process, there are lots of things to worry about, lots of ways it can go wrong. if this contagion spreads and begins to look as if other
countries may entertain the possibility of exit, europe is in big trouble. britain is in big trouble because it needs a lot of investment to finance its deficit. that is now in jeopardy about the future trading regime in the eu. there is a risk in europe. it could spread. financial distress has a terrible habit of spreading. there's a big risk here. we should be worried. there are things that can be done to mitigate the risk. bad things could happen. john m.: which of the countries are you most worry about at the moment? >> spain, this weekend, that is the first worry.
how is this going to factor into spain's election? looking further, it is what people in europe will be most worried about, the italian politics. they have a constitutional referendum later this year. it was exultant over this result in britain. then you have france. at the moment, the eu is less popular in france than in britain. there is a lot here that can go wrong. this is quite a shock to the european system. john h.: they are going to attempt to form an election in the tory party. we might have two new heads of the two major british parties who are going to have to try to put the economy back together in some way.
all kinds of trade treaties, deals, agreements. describe the challenge for whoever it is who ends up running the tory party, how big is the economic challenge? >> it is huge. britain has been in the system for 45 years. it is woven through the british legal system. i've seen part of the complaints. the fact is, it is immensely bound up with the european system. it isn't just a question of renegotiating a trade deal with europe. britain has to renegotiate trade deals with all its other trading partners.
that work was outsourced to the eu. where are these people going to be found? it has to be done quickly. the longer this drags on greater the risk the uncertainty will agitate the markets and there will be unseen problems. then as you say we have clinical -- political turmoil as well. labor party is an issue. there's a possible problem with ireland. that may change. it is going to be negotiated. all these things have to be done
simultaneously. there's a colossal work load. they have to do it while the country is in a state of semi paralysis. john m.: if you imagine a set of trade proposals, donald trump says they will be added the front of the queue. >> i had not given that much thought. i could see that happening. the risk and everything we are discussing here are immense. there are some opportunities. that is one. that is something the brexit people will be keen to pursue. it will be interesting to see whether the administration sticks with its line.
if the u.s. sees an interest in helping to stabilize the situation it may feel it is in u.s. interest to bring that negotiation forward. there's a good relationship between the u.k. and the u.s. we will have to see. john h.: clive crook, a delight to have on the show. thank you for that. next, we will have jonathan friedman from "the guardian." ♪
♪ >> june 23 needs to be a national bank holiday. we will call it independence day. >> the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction. >> britain will continue to be a great european power. ♪ our next guest is jonathan friedman of "the guardian." he joins us now from london. good to see you here. we just talked about the the implications, who is the most likely next prime minister
of great britain? jonathan: i think it's boris johnson without any doubt. a lot of people are surprised. if you read what he has written over the years, he would have been a natural remainer. it paid off. he won. the conservative party will choose the next prime minister. they are themselves hostile to the european union. they are going to hand the leadership to the person with the most anti-europe credentials. nobody can compete with boris johnson when it comes to that. barring a slipup, it is him. the front runner always does tend to slip up. i think it is looking like boris johnson. john h.: who will be his
greatest challenger? who is the most likely to give him a run for his money? jonathan: there will be. there has to be somebody. if it comes from the remain camp, it may be theresa may. she was on the remain side that took a back room role and kept herself out of the public view because she knew this was going to be coming. she made as few enemies as possible among the leave camp. if they can stomach somebody from remain, it could be her. if it is someone from the other side, she appeared alongside boris johnson, she was able to
connect a little bit. in terms of sheer swagger, it doesn't work on me, but boris johnson is naturally the front runner. he delights the tory party. he knows how to tickle them and he does it well. in the country, it might be a different matter. john m.: what about the labour party? is jeremy corbyn under serious threat? jonathan: he's under pretty serious pressure. a lot of people were able to tolerate his style. it did have appeal in a bernie sanders way. the authenticity. this time that style clearly failed. labor voted to leave. he had one job, to get the vote out for remain and he didn't do it. he himself was so halfhearted in
his support for remain. he was from that wing of the party that had always been hostile to the european project. he did a bad job of hiding that. he was a tepid advocate. that has now cost the calls because remain has lost. people are hostile to him who wanted to use the opportunity to say it is your fault. his popularity was with the young and on the left. they are attached strongly to the european project. they resent the fact their previous hero let them down. john h.: you spent a lot of time in this country. you are pretty smart about american politics. everyone today is drawing parallels between the brexit and
the trump campaign and wondering what this may for shadow for the american presidential election. with some experience, what do you see on that front? jonathan: there is one crucial common element. the kind of people who both donald trump and the brexit cause appeal to. it is those people that are following trump. people who feel left behind, fearful of immigration. people who have felt that have been priced out of their jobs through migrants. you hear the same refrains coming in both places. there were enough of those people once they joined with natural conservatives who had their own ideological objections
to push brexit over the edge. what i would say though that same body of people exist in united states, i wonder if demographically they can cross 50%. do they have the numbers to do that? to build a coalition. i would suspect they don't. in terms of the kind of people they are, there is a read across from the trump people to the people who have made brexit when -- win the day here. john m.: tell me quickly about london. do you think london is divorced from the rest of the country? most certainly the rest of england. >> people have been feeling that anyway. new york is not like america. it has become a global city, detached.
there has never been more proof of that than these results. london voted to remain. that sense of detachment was striking. when scotland's minister said we didn't vote to leave, she said london, as if it was a different country. there are people suggesting london should follow scotland's lead and break away. there's not going to be that secession but the sense that london is comfortable with diversity and comfortable with globalization because it has done so well. that sets it apart from the rest of the country. john h.: up next, we go to the daily show to show you our conversation with trevor noah. ♪
this week we went on the daily show to talk about bloomberg politics and the presidential race. afterwards trevor spent a few minutes with us to turn the tables on him. he had interesting observations about the u.s. elections. [applause] john h.: your first convention. >> it will be my first convention. it could be my last convention. mark: comedy is not pretty.
you get once again. what have you learned that you did not know before? >> i spent my first two weeks apologizing to everyone who ran into me. you're not supposed to do that. that is seen as insulting to people. if i bump you it is a way we get to connect as human beings. john h.: you were not political comedian per se. this was not it. the american scene was not your comedy. what have you learned watching this presidential election unfold? >> it is a broken system. that is the truth. america today, like most pioneers, they had the best system and the first system, the first major constitution.
nothing has been evolved. nothing has been changed. you have old software and people are wondering why it is falling apart. i do not understand the system where the numbers do not count. the votes do not count. it is given to the person. donald trump was a good example. i struggle to understand how a person who won 40% of the votes gets all of the vote for his party. john h.: winner take all. >> you do it in sports as well. the world european world, soccer, people have ties. you both you get in. you have republicans who never voted for trump. but say he is technically my choice. , but say he is technically my
choice. mark: you need america 2.0. >> bernie sanders could have run as an independent. because essentially have multiple candidates in this race. you have hillary clinton. you have donald trump. you had rubio and cruise. you have for differing opinions. you see that in an election. but one side, people are forced to join a side that aligns with them but not fully represent them. which is a strange way to run a system. john h.: we need a parliamentary system. >> it makes a lot of sense. in south africa, we have a parliamentary system. john h.: i never thought i would be sitting with a black south
african talking about american politics. mark: democracy perfected. john h.: how far we've come. >> trump, definitely. everyone in the world thinks it is crazy. racism, xenophobia, it is blatant. the whole world says how is that a representative of half of your country? she has been so overshadowed. she's hillary clinton. because the world is not involved in the day-to-day running of your politics, clinton and her secretary of state, that is not part of the world story. we get the highlights. barack obama, bush, those are the things the world sees. donald trump is what the world sees right now. who is your favorite
political guest? >> lindsey graham was the best, the most candid. you don't like ted cruz? ted >> ted and i have a lot of differences. i'm getting better at this. [laughter] >> he was a really fun guy. i have differing views with your audience but -- john h.: what would your slogan be? >> my slogan would be half black, half white, let's do it again. yeah. thank you. john h.: our thanks to trevor noah and the daily show crew. we'll be right back. ♪
john h.: you said earlier with this was the first time you've been scared by a political event. jonathan: it may be the end of the britain i knew. that cosmopolitan. john h.: head to bloomberg.com for all of our stories on brexit. hang with us all weekend long for special brexit coverage. thanks for putting up with my bad puns. extreme apologies. i say to you sayonara. ♪
♪ narrator: the challenges facing our world are growing all the time. how do we build stronger economies with equal opportunities for all? how do we build a sustainable world for generations to come? how do we protect our cities and harness the power of technology for our common benefit? humanity has always been good at forward thinking. in this series, using the latest bloomberg research and analysis, we will make sense of the problems of tomorrow.