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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  June 30, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT

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>> u.s. stocks closing higher now up 2.5% for the year. >> the question is "what'd you miss." >> the first half of the year, we break down the market news. >> what does the rest of europe want in the brexit negotiations? we look at the key players, including germany and france. >> and it's bloomberg's focus on farma and we will hear from bill gates on gene therapy that could save your life. >> we begin with our market 2.5% gain has a with the dow adding 200 points within the industry groups. all 10 sectors are imagining. and joe, a lot of attention spent on wondering whether we
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are going to get loosening of monetary policy from the central bank of england. >> markets are not as worried about brexit. s&p up 2.5%. stocks imagining more than one%. pretty extraordinary two-day rally. >> we got answers to those questions today. carney said he was getting ready to loosen monetary policy and broaden the boundaries it uses to determine what debt it could buy. that really helped the market to take another leg up at the end of the day both here and there. >> in terms of bonds, you are looking at the puerto rican bond index? >> yes, the latest surge helped by the signing of that puerto rico legislation. certainty coming on that front and look at bonds over this
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first half of the year. these are yields on 10-year, yields plunging everywhere. the market story of the year so far. >> one of the storieof the year in banking has been deutsche bank getting crushed and continuing to disappoint investors, today, down another 2 2/23. there have been a lot of concerns about this bank from its leadership down to continued arrests and investigations into various employees. deutsche bank getting crushed today. ok at the ftse up 5.2% obviously in part helped by mark carney but that was at the very end of trading and he didn't
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start speaking until 4:00 today. but see the leg up after the market took whellsing it was going to get more help and that was when investors that they were going to lose monetary policy. >> look at the chinese currency over night. this is the british pound. this is up -- we are going back to china. weakest level that it was prepared to allow more depreciation. they declined to comment on this report. there was a brief blip in the morning. but a lot of people focusing on 6.8 per dollar is a level. now let's get to the pound and the british pound was up versus the dollar so far this year. then the bottom fell out and you had that record two-day plunge
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and trading at a 30-year low against the u.s. dollars. trend.st quarterly >> newp planting data, farmers planting the most corn since world war ii. see it on the chart when that data came out. one of the most interesting movers of the day. let's look what the commodities in the first half of the year. green arrows, this was a good move. the bloomberg commodity index, natural gas up and crude up 26% and flirting with that area for a while. >> the dollar kind hasn't changed during that period. >> shows the commodities. >> how about soy beans. they were ripping face today. >> is that a technical term.
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>> means more than 2 1/2 standard deviation move. >> let's take a deep dive into the bloomberg and follow the charts using the function at the bottom of the screen. the brazilian currency has weakened versus the dollars. and brexit has pushed rate hike expectations off into the distance and people using the dollar. if you were to buy the dollars, that has returned more than 13%, 13.5% so far. that is the most among 34 currencies and we know the central bank of brazil said there is no room to cut interest rates and the fed is no hurry to cut rates. not ok at the big gainers, the currency you would have
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expected. >> i'm looking at the relationship between the pound and snap 500. and i have looked at this chart a lot, for a long time, the two charts have tracked each other well that global markets have paid so much attention to what has been happening in the u.k. this goes back to june 13. we have seen the last couple of dayses there has been a divergence but hone in at what happened at 11:00, that red line. we saw stocks spike and the pound dive and carney came out and said there would be more easing. the pound like it, because more easing, the more easing and saw a divergence between the two. >> will it last? >> that's the big question. >> i want to switch to mmodities, and i think of it as a great proxy of what could
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happen. doesn't mean that. this chart is 1864 and copper coming up for the second day. copper hasn't done incredibly well. the three-month contract is up only 3% compared to massive gangs for gold, silver and latinum but better gains for a lum number. copper, i wonder if this move is because of optimism, maybe this is also a move in reaction so more lum loosening of monitor policy and other central banks. >> see all those charts and more on twitter. >> bloomberg columnist michael regan joins us. doesn't it feel like a friday? feels like an incredible week.
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is the brexit trade over? >> i'm mostly struck as you said the story of the year is the ever declining yields whether it be a safe haven trade. if you look at the main movers in the stock markets, say, utilities, telecom, consumer staples, getting reports of the hershey takeover attempt but defense groups not today and going all the way back to last may, your bond-like stocks and a lot of these groups had records. but real estate investment trust in the s&p reaching a record, utility sector reaching a record and consumer staples reaching a record and the valuations close to all-time highs if not there already.
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so it has been -- it's a risk-on rally, but the least risky stocks in these groups. joe: michael, i was talking to an investor friend of mine and the drop and then the rally is that kind of shook out the weaker players and brought basic resources stocks up. if you look at the year to date of the stocks 600, basic resources stock are big winners this year to date, up 18%. and a lot of that came on monday and friday. do you see finally individual groups moving around a lot more than sort of rising tide lifting all boats? >> the energy sector and the material sector would be the exception. energy and snap 500 is a close
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to 100, so really a lot of faith that oil will stabilize, but that is a dangerous number. but yeah, i mean, it goes back to earnings and looking at least the second quarter, there is not a lot of bright spots there. there is really no double-digit growth in any of the sectors i could find. most sectors expected to report, decreases in earnings. so it's possible we could have a flat that up earning season and will that be enough to really get people back into the record. but obviously, they are in a good mood. >> one group that has done badly are the financials. you have the prospect of another interest rate increase pushed off into the future and talk of
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an interest rate cut. >> i look at the three-month, five-year and the very short-term to about five years and just flattened out. the two year and 10-year curve was at the lowest. perked up a little bit but not moving too much off of the low and you know, banks obviously they got through the stress tests. we had a flurry of capital announcements, buy backs, enough to give a bit of a boost and all the groops still taking a leadership role. >> that's hardly a decided boost, one of conviction. the other thing you noted was apple was the biggest drag on the snap, not only for this month and the quarter. >> the biggest company out there and just total drag on the
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market. six points taken off of the snap 500 more than bank of america and microsoft. still, again, a rebound in apple would increase incentive. >> michael regan, thanks for joining us. >> what european leaders want from the brexit negotiations when they actually occur. ♪
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>> turkey has made more than a dozen arrests in the airport suicide bombing attack. turkish state media say 13 suspects have been dwained and three of them are described as
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foreign nationals, they blame islamic state which killed 44 people at the airport in stanbul. i've ell tower will be lit in flag. ors of the turkish it was delayed 24 hours. the image of the turkish flag has been projected on several world sites including berlin and amsterdam's royal palace. mike lee says he can't endorse donald trump. he accused my best friends father to kill j.f.k. lee said he is concerned that trump's plan to restrict muslims into the u.s. amounts to religious intolerance. in japan, a new survey says the
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average monthly allowance is $370, the third lowest in three decades. in japan, pocket money is doled out by wives that control family budgets. they are trying to revive and re-inflate the economy. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2,600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. back to you in london. "what'd you miss," germany or france is more influential in the negotiations. a columnist writes that brexit hopes that overeager arms is a spanking for the u.k. worried about a nationalist victory in forth coming negotiations.
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the talks may turn nasty and unproductive. oining us there from london is nina. the political leadership is in at that timers and going to be difficulties figuring what the voice is going into these negotiations. tell us about the european side, what will the european objective look like and what might shape their approach? >> well, it's already very clear even though there are divides amongst the e.u. leaders that the tradeoff in this negotiation is single market access in exchange for free movement of people. this is difficult, because if you know how the lead campaign was run in the u.k., it was done so on the promise that leaving the e.u. would mean that immigration would come down significantly. this will impact certain factors, particularly the financial services factor and
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how the clearinghouses are going move to the euro zone and let's not forget what happened in greece. when it comes to the e.u. and put france and germany against each other, ultimately, they are going to stick together because it is important for the e.u. to stick together in these negotiations. togeorge soros gave a speech the european parliament and got a lot of attention about what he said for financial markets and merkel's migration policy and said her initiative was not well thought through and ignored the pole factor. public opinion turned against her. that is when she struck her deal. how much does merkel -- how much blame should go to merkel for not dealing more proactively
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with some of the underlying issues that are causing angst yites? >> the whole migration crisis played a huge part, a massive part, even though the u.k. part has a policy and didn't have to take any of the refugees that were flooding into europe. it made look the e.u. like a dodgey prospect. and in terms of merkel's relations with the other e.u. member states, they were extremely tense, more tense than any time i have seen and domestically merkel has lost support as well. she's still strong and has over 50% approval rating in germany and likely she still will be a the german chancellor and she will be an open negotiator. it's still not clear and we don't have a government yet and
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don't know what the u.k.'s negotiating position is going to be and what kind of model they'll seek from the e.u. we'll have to wait and see what they say. >> there are so many things that need to be sorted out. do you see any situation in which the brexit could bring continental europe together rather than the deeper fragmentation that is taking place? >> there is a lot of rhetoric of how to make europe stronger. it is a difficult proposition because there are flaws in the euro zone and how berlin and paris want to tackle that. this is a huge blow to the e.u. liberal allies that they had feel isolated and don't like the fact they are left with germany and france and germany and france think so differently as to how the e.u. and euro zone should proceed.
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it's going to make things very awkward. >> one of the things i noticed when i talk to european commissioners in brussels, they seem to have this plan to create a federal union to really solid file the european union, but they don't want to talk about it or go public with it because it is so unpopular amongst the voters. >> this has been the pob with the e.u. and the euro zone. this has been a half baked project. germany has to decide. is it going to be a transfer union and assume the debt of countries like greece or not. i don't see this impact becoming any easier. that presented at least you know a strong partner for a more flexible e.u. where the single market was the joining force and those countries don't join could stay outside, very interesting to see when the british
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commissioner resigned, financial services brief was given to the commissioner in charge of the euro. the u.k. outside and e.u. would rally around the euro without a clear plan as to how it's going to work. >> we heard from french president hollande he would like to see paris take some of that business out of london. what do you see the prospects of it to move towards european cities and do they have a chance of stealing some of that business? >> we are jumping the gun because we don't know what the deal is going to be and negotiators are going to go in once the e.u. formed its team, getting trade negotiators with new zealand, canada and u.s., they will go in hard for market access specifically for financial services. what we do know the euro
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clearing business might clear out to frankfurt or paris. that's going to move. but we still don't know exactly how this is going to affect the markets and financial services. first of all, in order for these negotiations to be triggered, article 50 needs to be triggered, that is the exit clause from the e.u. and enter a two-year negotiating period and a lot can happen in that time. don't jump the gun just yet. > it has been a real pleasure. >> canada's g.d.p. get a bruise. we have a chart that you can't miss. ♪
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"what'd you miss" canada's hockey blue. hockey and charts. no canadian team made the playoff and that shows up in the .d.p. data and arts fell 4% in april. february of 2014 when the sochi olympics interrupted and before that, the nhl lockout and adding salt to the wound for hockey fans in canada, it was traded to natchville. >> that chart looks like an american would have come up with a joke. and it's funny that it actually does show up. i'm looking at the canadian g.d.p. it's like $75. >> it's part. >> i'm looking at the two-year
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yield spread between spain and germany and the reason this is important there has been a little bit of rising anxiety about post-brexit and people were worried we might see it in spain and after we had that election on sunday, but a pretty 0.7% ove this past from to.46. there hasn't been that expansion of the spread this week thanks to the election and the fact and this is one area that hasn't shown up. >> if the election had gone the other way. >> if the radical left had done much better, i imagine the spread would have gone wider. >> our next guest says donald trump and the presidential election has the potential to be a lehman brothers moment. what doesn't? this is bloomberg.
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♪, mark: i am mark crumpton, let's
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get the first word news. the united states has moved piland from its human trafficking list, although it is still widespread. the state department may be assessment in its annual trafficking and persons report released by the secretary of state, john kerry, who examine of governments in fighting modern-day slavery. chris christie vetted as a possible running mate for donald trump. that is based on reports from multiple media outlets. race to theed his white house, he was an early supporter of trump's.
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12% preferred another candidate, 5% were undecided to read in a similar poll last week, mrs. clinton the lead mr. trump by five points. the secretary of homeland security says americans should expect tighter security, especially if the nation's airports as they travel for the fourth of july holiday weekend. johnson says tsa, state, and local enforcement will increase their efforts. that is after the deadly suicide bombing at turkey's ataturk airport in istanbul. major airports in the u.s. are beefing up security. day,l news 24 hours a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am mark crumpton. we have breaking news
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on tesla, they are -- their shares are lower in after-hours trading. the tesla model f. vehicleg to tesla, the was on a divided highway when the autopilot engaged, perpendicular to them model s. the driver did not notice the tractor-trailer, so the break was not applied. as a result, there is a fatality. first known fatality where autopilot was activated. 2.5% ases are about they open up an evaluation on the tesla model. this is not something tesla takes lightly. no, definitely not something
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they take lightly. but, the first fatality in the tesla where and autopilot was activated in 130 miles area that million fore in 94 u.s. autopilot activated cars, million worldwide. administration will open an investigation into the design and performance of their autopilot system. this,re informing us of and the stock is down in the post-market. we will continue to monitor any headlights. scarlet: this year has the potential to be a political event, in particular, when it comes to donald trump. columnist wrote a few months ago that a trump nomination and election
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represents the system failing. their entitlement, pro-immigration trade would be threatened by a trump win. conor joins us from atlanta. vote, despitet the fact the markets are must -- much more calm about, can you explain that? was the year of unexpected failures. it looks like the entire u.k. government was a weak institution. and you can argue that the republican party has become a weak institution, and donald trump took advantage of that. what ifit is more about the entire republican party collapses after the donald trump blowout?
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that is the bigger risk to think about. joe: do you think markets are prepared for this? here in london we saw a lot of hedging on the downside, looks like markets were ready. the u.s.g drops, is market hedging the same way? >> i do not think so. it took until the final week or two. people are still in the mindset of some of is looking like the ast two elections, so it is status quo moment. whether donald trump can come either the polls, scenario is worth thinking about, markets have not thought about it yet. scarlet: you mentioned polling, that is in it interesting part of this. people look at the betting markets, as well. in the brexit case, the polls and betting markets did not anticipate that the leave camp
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would prevail in the end. does that mean the polling is more suspect in the election? there were several polls that showed leave winning. it was not a massive mess for the polls. in this case, i think hillary is leading by about five or six points, a pretty big margin. we will see how things go after the convention, if the sanders of votes can consolidate with the democrats. joe: with the brexit, we saw older voters vote to leave, and younger voters vote to remain. in december thing -- similar thing happens here. younger consumers are much more optimistic. what do you think explains that generational divide?
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older voters had manufacturing jobs that are now gone, younger ones did not have them. it is just something that existed in history. times,member the good whereas for younger voters, this is the way it has always been. younger people are naturally more optimistic, with their whole lives ahead of them. and the older generations see it as being better back then. voteryou are an older needing to save for retirement, that is upcoming. the yield you can get in fixed-income markets is not appealing. let's talk about general political uncertainty. between brexit and the november elections coming up, and lots more stuff coming up, it feels
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like a time where people are anxious about how the course of policy is going to go. how did this affect the economy and markets? looking back 2000 eight, you had a huge economic event that created lyrical uncertainty. political shock that created economic uncertainty. fear is fear and uncertainty is terms ofty, but in impact, i don't think it will be nearly as big a deal in the u.s.. we have news coming across that goldman sachs will cut 60 traders and salespeople in new york and in london. we continue to see banks taking out little operations here and there. goldman sachs paid hillary clinton $2 million to give it three speeches. will she be as hard on wall street as a donald trump says he is? is one of the other going to be bankers? worse for
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conor: the treasury secretary appointed in may of 2006, people thought it would be great for banks. but we saw the opposite, the banks were in the early stages of collapse. now, elizabeth warren became treasury secretary and wall street freaked out about that. but the capital analysis this housing should keep getting better. it could be one of these things where it will not be as bad as people are fearing. new world sen from investments, thank you for joining us. scarlet: we have breaking news, puerto rico has declared a debt moratorium on debt obligation bonds as well as other debt. this was from a e-mail statement , a moratorium on debt, including general obligation bonds.
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it will stop the tobacco tax transfer. again, these are headlines out of puerto rico. allowed for concessions to allow them to recover, but the economic fundamentals have not changed, it is a patchwork solution more than anything else to read we will monitor these headlights. and, president obama signed a bill into law to address the puerto rican debt crisis. also, our focus on pharma. bill gates on what is next in a gene therapy. ♪
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scarlet: live from our global headquarters in midtown manhattan, this is bloomberg television. we are on the last day of the fu,t half -- i am scarlet it is time for the bloomberg business flash. her she says its board unanimously rejected a takeover ,id from oreo cookie maker valuing the company at $23 billion. create the world's biggest candy company. companies led by goldman sachs and alphabet trying to help president obama with refugees fleeing conflict, offering assistance. letident obama says we will in 10,000 syrian refugees by the end of september.
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media, disney will retain a four-year option in major league baseball. and that is the bloomberg business flash. joe: "what'd you miss?" this week, we have a focus on pharma and biotechnology. gates,t down with bill the cofounder of the bill and linda gates foundation and spoke about vaccines and gene therapy that could save your life. are still the tool that have saved the most lives. today, inventing new vaccines for hiv, malaria, tb, a number of these diseases that are still literally killing millions of people, that is a top priority for us. it is a radical intervention.
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like geneer areas therapy and gene editing, what about easier work that can be done in vaccine development? >> gene editing is a basic tool, and it will pervade all the work on the biological sciences. diagnosis,, even for tong gene knockouts understand models, you cannot underestimate what a great tools that they are. we see themsense, in plant and animal work because it will speed up and help on animal disease. , somethways are complex though not as hard as human disease. mosquitoes, this is a
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superior system to affect either mosquito populations carrying , and for something like hiv or aids, it is possible , although there are a lot of hurdles. you can do gene editing to cure somebody for the disease, that would be fantastic, because all we have are lifelong treatments. i see it in so many of the different foundation programs. >> many of the most advanced remedies are awfully expensive to develop. and the companies behind them by maximumvized profit possible. i am thinking of things like cleant and the cost of hep treatments, immunotherapy, and drugs. what in your mind is the best way to control costs so these medicines and treatments are not just available to the rich and well-insured? system,nk the current
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, havee some extreme cases properly been labeled as -- i think the current system is better than some we could imagine. is ag hepatitis c, this phenomenal thing. and you have multiple drug companies competing in terms of the quality and price of that offering. the drug companies are turning out miracles. and we need their research and development budgets to stay strong. alzheimer's,ke they can reduce medical costs so dramatically and improve the and thendition, pharmaceutical companies have been great partners of our foundation. science,elp in doing and they are very good about pricing. example,ke hep c as an
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and all the responsible they have anthis, approach not about making money but driving access. tiered pricing is a way you can andre the ideas of access being able to fund new miracles. you really want both. >> that was bill gates, cofounder of the bill and melinda gates foundation. scarlet: and the worst quarterly performance on a record, will we see more intervention? check on shares of tesla, down 3% after a u.s. regulator learned of a fatal highway track involving a 2015 tesla model s. it happened in may in florida, and they have opened a preliminary investigation into it. ♪
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scarlet: i'm scarlet fu, "what'd you miss?" china's currency headed toward , since theecord start of 1994. trading at its lowest level in five years. can the currency weather more depreciation pressure? now. liu joins us earlier today was an example of the pressure china faces. >> a huge volatility there for the currency. you sell the pboc try to come
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out and stabilize the currency. it is kind of interesting, we seem to be recovering from this exit hangover, but it feels like it is just starting for china. joe: i wanted to ask you about that, earlier in the year and last august, that is all people were watching, what is happening with the u.n.. i was surprised it was such a bad quarter for the currency. there has not in that much talk or spillover into markets. are we perhaps going to start talking again? betty: possibly, we're always looking for some kind of headline risk. this rears its ugly head, again. right, itolutely seemed to die down because we focused on other things to read brexit being the most recent
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one. the central bank of china has a spent something like $800 billion to stabilize its currency. but that has not stopped money from flowing out of the country. the silent killer so far that we have not paid attention to. if you look at certain measures that havel funds, money flowing from either side of the border, more of that money is flowing out. more is going out than is coming in. this hongknow about -shanghai exchange link that has not been successful. part of the reason why, most of the money being traded is leaving china. it is favoring hong kong versus shanghai. it is been trouble for hong kong's stock markets, but not for the chinese. they thought this would be a great cross-border league, but it has not been. there is a lack of confidence in china. pretty: it has been
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lopsided, and then glad you bring up equities. they did not add chinese shares like people might have the chinese looking for that to happen sooner than later, but the trend has not continued. they have a lot more work to do. they clamped down during that debacle a year ago, they clamped down on short, restricted capital out of the country. so all of that is negative for being included in a global index like that. to go fora long way china, a long way to go in terms of confidence back to those markets. overnight isuan less stable, given what is going on with brexit and the european economy, china will have a tougher time getting their exports out. they will have a harder time that means the
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currency is on the brink of a further depreciation. a big depreciation, not a gradual one, but a much bigger fall for the chinese currency. intervention in assets hurts the pricing mechanism, with the u.n., as well. i wonder about the equity linked in china versus hong kong. i can understand why chinese investors want to invest in hong kong equities, but equity investors in hong kong would not want to go the other way. how linked are the chinese equity markets and the underlying economy? is there any link at all? there is not a huge link, there is some. but as we have been talking about for so long, the chinese ofkets are such a small part the economy. fall,e see the markets
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that can, at some point, lead to a decline or shrinkage of our economy. not so much the case in china because it is such a small part of the overall economy. but, it is a measure of sentiment, at the very least. and certainly as we have seen before with the global recession, -- -- bloomberg's betty liu, thank you. you can see her in the morning. scarlet: what you need to know for tomorrow's trading day. ♪
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scarlet: don't miss this,
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tonight at 9:00 p.m., china manufacturing and services coming out. and, eurozone unemployment rate tomorrow at 5:00 a.m. eastern time.
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mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. to with all due respect donald trump's wall, it looks like the mexicans are coming in. mr. trump: they're getting ready to attack. ♪ john: on the show tonight, a tarmac chat. but first, donald trump's new campaign tech. he did something remarkable come a kind oft

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