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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  July 1, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT

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vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. here is what we're watching. stocks are fighting to stay higher to start the third quarter. the s&p 500 on pace for its best 2014, but october, some of those gains have fizzled with financials being the hardest hit sectors. commodity markets will be ,losing the week after brexit oil closing down 1.5%, well itsral -- silver hitting highest level in 2014. gf, fiat, chrysler among the companies missing estimates. markets close and about two hours but stocks are moving
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higher. amy: we are on track for fourth day of gains but the rallies we have seen over the past three days definitely seem to be petering out. the dow and s&p are up a little more than a 10th of a percent. let's go and see what is happening intraday on the s&p as well. brexit,e, ever since for the past week, we have pretty much recouped our losses. down half a percent since brexit hit. i want to show you what is happening in terms of sector health. over the past three days, we have seen green across the board in terms of our 10 sectors but today we are seeing this nearly even split. four sectors in the red, financial down the most by half
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a percent. utilities down by .4%. consumer discretionary up the most by .8%. health care also up by about .5%. auto stocks, we got some june numbers for sales in the u.s. general motors, ford, fiat chrysler moving higher today, up by 1.5%, but the interesting thing, for gm and fiat, their sales rose less than expected. some of them were a miss. general motors sales fell 1.6% year on year. the expectation was a fall of .7%, but it is still up. fiat chrysler, sales rose by 6.5%, but the estimate was for an 8.9% rise. lightold more suvs and trucks, and those have a higher revenue. netflix, best buy, staples also up.
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best buy securing more funding from banks on the order of one and a quarter billion dollars. let's take a look at what is happening in the safe haven of gold. up to 1.4% right now. it is seeing its biggest jump in a week, also its highest since july 2014. year to date, it has rallied 25%. off of that, some of the gold miners are on track for their highest since 2013. vonnie: those are the winners, a few losers. let's take a look at one of the losers, the safe haven of treasuries. this is the u.s. 30-yield. we do not often look at this. ear yield hit 2.18%. it is down six basis points, the
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lowest since february, 1977. some other notable losers, micron down 10%. bank of america merrill lynch saying the out look on the company is negative after they say the industry will be laughing. williams companies, six directors resigned as they try to oust the ceo. vonnie: we will be digging into that williams company story later on, thank you. let's check in on the first word news. mark crumpton has more. breaking news from bangladesh. mark: there is a hostage situation in the capital of bangladesh. nine attackers are said to be holding a number of people hostage inside the diplomatic zone, a restaurant. local tv stations reported the
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attacker centered around a bakery. security guards cordoned off the area. we will continue to follow this developing story and bring you more information as soon as we get it. u.s. attorney general loretta defuse a moved to controversy over hillary clinton and her private e-mail server. during an appearance at the aspen ideas festival she said thefully expects to accept recommendation of career prosecutors and fbi director, whether to bring charges. she sparked a political firestorm this week when she met privately with bill clinton at a phoenix airport. the obama administration is also weighing in. thehe white house and president were not at all involved in that decision. i will leave it to the attorney general to describe the role that she will play in the process that the department of
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justice will undertake as they conduct this investigation. mark: the clinton campaign has declined to comment on mrs. lynch's remarks. indiana governor mike pence is expected to meet with mr. trump over the holiday weekend and that has some suggesting the conservative governor could join mr. trump as a running mate, but a spokesperson says the meeting thatnsistent with others the republican nominee has held with others. defaulted on its debt after president obama signed a restructuring plan. for the first time, the u.s. territory failed to pay on a general obligation bonds. the governor declared a moratorium on debt payments. puerto rico had already said it could not pay $2 billion that was owed today. global news 24 hours a day
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powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: one week after the brexit vote, investors shrugged it off. bank of england governor mark carney sparking even further gains when he opened the door to stimulus. mark barton and i spoke with mohamed el-erian earlier today. i asked him how brexit changed central banking worldwide. >> central banks are now looking at even more difficult outlooks for growth. most agree the brexit uncertainties were at least half a percentage point of the growth rate in the u.k. and europe, and increases the risk of recession. facing the prospect and the threat that comes with that, central banks, the bank of england in particular, fielding to do more.
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yes, the probability is right, most likely the bank of england will cut the summer, and likely the ecb will do more qe. spread between the two and 10 year in the u.s. is 86 basis points. the 10 year is at 1.44%. all the u.s. continue to be safe haven for investors, and what will the federal reserve have to do? >> the federal reserve is seeing it yield curve captured by what is happening in europe. the result is a relentless decline in yields and a relentless flattening of the curve. the u.s. yield curve now reflects much more europe and policy there that does the u.s. the reason is simple, if you are facing negative interest rates on over 30% of government debt, you will look for ways to get positive rates. if you think the currency will be in your favor, u.s.
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treasuries become even more compelling. basically you are seeing the globalization of the fixed income market and a massive influence that a slowdown in europe and incremental policy activism is having around the world. mark: how long does the u.s. 10 year ago? >> it can go to 1.25% quite easily if we continue to see this combination of more central bank activism and a slowdown in europe. ironically, u.s. numbers are not bad. you make it quite a bit of volatility as this tug-of-war develops between the u.s. economy doing ok, and the pressure for lower yields coming from across the atlantic. vonnie: that was mohamed el-erian joining us earlier. vix is below 15 today since the s&p surged last friday.
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so how does that impact the exchange traded funds? joe ciolli wrote about it today for bloomberg news and joins me now. relatedit about vix products that makes them so attractive at a time like this? >> this is what people are paying for protection. at a time when there is a lot of geopolitical uncertainty, head winds in the market, it is a popular product. vix is not something you can invest in. you have to use products that etf providers provide an you are looking at things that track vix, as wellort, as levered moves. vonnie: it sounds like a complex product for the retail investor. what is the one mistake that a retail investor would make? keep in mind, the vix is a
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derivative on top of that. a lot of investors are not really educated when they are buying. the second most traded etf in the last 30 days have been a long vix products, but people don't realize, you are only supposed to hold onto these for a day or two. there is a very short window of when you get your call right. if you don't do that, you will be bleeding yourself dry a little bit. even if you get the direction right, you could end up losing money if you don't exercise at the right time. could you lose your house, fortune on these things? it is possible but it is more likely to be a gradual loss. they can bleed you dry if you hold onto them too long. all the people i talk to recommend them for experienced investors, people that really have an eye on the volatility market. one thing throwing a wrench into
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it, they are not trading like they are supposed to. the in berks and long -- inverse and long vix traded in the same direction for a couple of days and that is not supposed to happen. vonnie: do institutional investors also play in these markets? absolutely. you would not see as much volume it institutions were on the sideline. leading up to a lot of the fed decisions and the brexit, we had record lows into vix products. people use or wanted to protect against a bad outcome, or people that thought that brexit would not happen still covering themselves, and that ended up working out. people were well hedged, which is why we have seen a nice rebound in the past week. vonnie: do you buy, go long on these products, and then witt for your target to come in? joe: if you think the s&p will
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selloff, the vix normally moves opposite of the s&p, so you would want to buy protection. in this case, it would be buying long vix. barclays has the most traded one. what if you want to look at something that is in verse, you can look at the velocity short-term etf. a sickly, a group of four or five that are very popular. vonnie: are we expecting to see a lot about those or will people wait to see the politics held out in britain? joe: you may not see outflows, you may see contracts changed the money may not blowout, but once things slow down, you can expect to see some outflows as people reposition and get invested in other things
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based on their risk profile. vonnie: thank you for bringing us up to date on that. coming up, large-cap technology shares are carrying the day at the nasdaq. apple and netflix among the big movers. we look into why netflix got an upgrade. auto sales are on track to hit a record for the first time in six years but there are signs that the numbers are slowing. anything that automakers can do to reverse the slowdown? we are live in detroit. and a check on automakers today. ♪
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vonnie: let's get a check on the nasdaq. abigail doolittle has been looking at some biotech shares. >> yet another big day for biotech. 1.5% for the fourth day higher in a row. the best four-day rally since april. yet, biotech is mired in its worst bear market. everyone wants know what is next. enough to speak with a biotech analyst at morgan stanley this afternoon. he said you have to remember that this bear market was preceded by a beautiful bull run. we see that in this longer-term chart. he believes it was precipitated by a few things. first, a tweet by hillary clinton last summer talking about probing drug prices. second, he believes macro prices at the beginning of the year set off the action.
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i learned something interesting today, which is biotech is defensive. when you think about the products, people need those drugs and therapy no matter what is going on politically. he said the risk to these companies around a selloff is the idea that they may have less access to funding. but he said because of volatility overall has been so great, some investors have been more risk-averse, moving away from these shares. he says he cannot predict the macro, but the main reason for , however, theet fundamentals are strong overall. vonnie: interesting investing environment. >> he says he sees all kinds of strategies from his clients, both on the long and short side. one interesting strategy right now is going after companies with big binary events coming up. they can potentially capture the upside if a data set goes well,
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something to offset this week macro environment. one thing that he really likes a lot is excel are on. three reasons that he really likes them. first, he says they have a strong partnership with celgene, a lot of data coming out next year. it could go you the way, but positive would help the stock. third, based on his work, they have enough cash until the end of 2019. he sees that 65% upside for shares of accleron. vonnie: thank you. it is time now for the bloomberg business flash. deutsche bank appears to have a morale problem. the bank says a survey of employees found fewer than half are proud to work there. executive teams say the results came a super and picture. last year, the ceo outlined his plans to cut jobs, risky assets,
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and some clients. honeywell is buying int elligrade, which makes robots and sorting devices. generateexpected to $900 million in sales this year. the deal is expected to close by the end of the third quarter. is workingity firm with advisers to see who has the bigger suite two four candy. people with knowledge of the erton isay catt exploring options for the maker of the candy. still ahead, trucks and suvs drive june auto sales higher, but can sales move higher through the rest of the summer?
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: automakers reported june sales figures today and several companies posted numbers that fell flat, so is this a sign of things to come? jamie butters covers the auto industry and joins us from detroit. i presume we are not seeing any kind of brexit affect just yet. anything that disappointed is related to something else? >> we might be seeing a lot of it already, not directly. it is not costing jobs in the u.s. economy but the market volatility is the kind of thing that makes people shy of these big-ticket purchases, $30,000 vehicles. there is some thought it may have an effect. of course, car executives are salespeople at heart, and they
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are telling you the consumer is very happy to buy a car right now because the deals are so good. vonnie: we saw some better than forecast figures. any reasons behind why those numbers may not be quite as good as they look? >> most of the automakers reported better sales than a year ago, but not as good as expected to be. toyota was the big loser. a red expected to have a small gain but they had a pretty medium-sized decline. 's problem is that they are very much a car company , toyota and lexus, not as strong on pickups and suvs, which is where the market is. june will not be quite as great as people expected. the sales they are getting are big trucks, big suvs. automakers that have this their estimates, their stocks are up because investors are happy they
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are selling the high margins tough. vonnie: pretty phenomenon that the demand is constant for those suvs and trucks. totals coming in around 17.3 million. it is ok that we cannot keep this up. that was a pretty phenomenal number to begin with. the debate is between peak and plateau. did we peak last year, or are we plateauing, and we are going to stay at this high level? this is a very healthy industry. the problem the automakers have with investors, they are saying how much better is it going to get? a lot of them are selling off and waiting for things to get bad. maybe if things get tougher in the second half, some difficult comparisons to last year, automakers can show they can work through it. vonnie: we are not looking at numbers for tesla, they don't report sales, but we have had a
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death in a tesla car. what will do that -- what will that do to the stock in the company going forward? >> certainly a tragic event. tens of thousands of traffic , and all are year tragic, but this is one of the first, if not the first in a model s. 130first incident after million miles driving. maybe they are still safer than average, but it is a little scary. the investigation started this month. vonnie: jamie butters, our thanks. you are watching bloomberg. ♪
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bloomberg told headquarters in new york, this is bloomberg markets. commodity markets closing in new york. at commodities in
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terms of energy and industrial metals, green across the board. let's go to gold. of course, we are a week away from one brexit happened. right now, gold is up by about 1.5% in terms of spot gold. users are higher, 1.4%, its biggest and we, the highest in july, 2014. year to date, rallied 25%. we are seeing a rock -- knock on effect on gold miners, including newmont, which is on track for its highest close since april, 2013. non-screwed up by about 1.4%. -- nymex crude up by about 1.4%. we are now at session highs, pushing just past $49 a barrel. we did just wrap the second quarter, and that is when we saw s best quarterly gain in the
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last seven years. you today, up 26%. take a look at what is happening with the weekly moves on gold. 1.3%, not a big surprise because of brexit. nymex crude had been lower, but that is starting to recoup, on track for its biggest weekly gain in five weeks. the bloomberg dollar spot is a third.down by about take a look at copper. for the week, up 5%. the best week in the last nine weeks or so. we had been looking at speculation of some stimulus hopes after brexit from the bank of england, bank of japan, even the pboc. that is giving rise to commodities across the board. take a look at another safe haven, silver. silver is having a better run than gold in terms of percent. in the past week, up by 10.4%.
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this is its best week since august, 2013. haven seekers have driven up the price of silver in the past week because of brexit, and they say this could continue for the rest of the year. vonnie: thank you, ramy inocencio. more fallout today after the transfer tos energy buy williams company. six executives resign following a failed attempt to remove the ceo alan armstrong. armstrong has been with the company for 30 years and oppose the energy transfer takeover. shares of williams are calling this afternoon on the news. machinations in the oil industry. who would've thought? six directors on the williams board and the ceo gets to stay. does this presumes that decision
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not to have the merger was the correct one? >> that is hard to say. what we are learning today is this was not something that .appened off-the-cuff does the satisfaction with the board with armstrong has been growing for a while. there was actually a feeling among some that have the merger gone through, the ceo would have left on his own, and that would have solved their problem. vonnie: typical of a battle between the entrenched ceo and activist investor. hard to know which side is correct in the short-term or long-term. but prices have fallen, it was getting to be a more difficult deal. so what is the outcome going to be? williams is now back on its own, does it look for something else to do? >> williams will be probably moving ahead, trying to work up some shareholder value without
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the quick fix of an m&a deal. energy transfer may have to get back into the market to try to grow itself because it is difficult to do it otherwise in this environment. the whole deal got trapped in the oil collapse as much as anything, and that led to where we are now. vonnie: there is an appeal going on in court. explain what the appeal is about a decision could bring us back to square one? >> there was a tax ruling that came out of a court last week. one of the issues -- it was the e back out oflet et the deal. at this point, there does not that it cannot work. vonnie: basically, not much
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consolidation in the pipeline industry? >> not at this point. let's check the headlines with mark crumpton now. loretta lynch has acknowledge that an impromptu meeting with bill clinton at a phoenix airport in her words, cast a shadow on the public perception of the e-mail investigation involving former secretary of state hillary clinton. donald trump address the controversy during an appearance at the western conservative summit in denver, colorado. >> bill clinton goes in the other day into an airplane, just happened to be a coincidence. he just happened to be at the airport at this time. when i first heard the story, i said, you are kidding. i thought somebody was joking. but it is not a joke. it is a very serious thing. to have a thing.
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to have anything like that happen is so sad. as you know, hillary is so guilty, she is so guilty. how that is not being pursued properly. general addedrney that she would follow the recommendation of career prosecutors on whether to file charges against mrs. clinton. president obama says a vaccine for the zika virus could be developed in short order it congress asked to pass a zika funding bill. the bill has been stalled in congress for weeks. it is absolutely critical for the united states government, working in concert with other governments in the hemisphere, to be pushing hard right now to get the situation under control. addedthe president lawmakers should not take their summer recess before passing the bill. al qaeda is reportedly warning ifthe "gravest consequences"
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the boston marathon bomber is executed. the threat comes in a new video from al qaeda leader i'm in a house wife yuri. he also warned the u.s. not to execute any muslim prisoners. zocor design i have was sentenced to death last year after being convicted of killing three and injuring 260 during the 2013 boston marathon. the international space station conducted a test of a newly installed docking system today, a progress resupply ship backed away to a distance of about 600 feet. two cosmonauts then took manual control of the spacecraft and re-docked it. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. perspectivel ahead, on brexit and the potential pitfalls for the u.s. economy.
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james bullard, president of the federal reserve bank of st. louis shares his thoughts. ♪
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mrs. bloomberg markets. federal reserve bank of st. louis president jim bullard joined the surveillance team from london today. here is part of the conversation on the health of the banking system following the outcome of the brexit vote. >> u.k. banks obviously were hit because of the future relationship of their so-called passport and rights to the eu are under question at this point. if the u.k. could get on a glide path to a new trade arrangement,
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then this would help to reduce the uncertainty, but obviously now they are taking a huge hit. i saw the interview yesterday the the ceo and i agree, banks are in very good shape compared to what they were a few years ago. in general terms, certainly true for u.s. banks as well, profitability has been good. there are many good aspects and i think they are in a good position to weather the storm. >> jim bullard, you are in the home of lender of last resort. educate the audience on the new lender of last resort. what is the lender of last resort as you see it today? >> well, we have a discount window function in an important crisis. we have not had to do anything like that in this current situation, so it has really been
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more about making sure market functioning is appropriate, making sure people can find the prices when they want to trade. obviously, brexit was a big shock, this is a good test of the system, but i think the system came through well. we were able to get the trades in, get the price discovery we need. >> your critics would say we are in a bond bubble with bonds price to perfection, priced up, yield down. push against that. do you see bubble characteristics? >> i certainly see low bond yields and environment where that is likely to continue into the future, but there will come a day where productivity in the u.s. will pick up, growth in the , and interest up rates will go up. when that day comes, investors have to be prepared. paid towhat they get
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do. one of the things that has been happening over the last five or six years, the continual production that rates would go -- the storyeople has gotten old, let's put it that way. they have always been trading as it rates were about to go up and it has not happened. these regime ideas would give you a better sense of how to think about this. >> when you look at what is happening on the political scene, it is clear that goes back to the heart of globalization. because of trade and immigration, that is part of what tipped the brexit vote. is that going to be more of a concern as we get more countries, including the u.s., why to become less globalized? >> i don't think so, not over the long run. i may have a little different view of this. tradek. has a sum
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relationship with the eu. now it says it wants to have some other trade relationships. what would those relationships be? i would like a focal point to maybe be named here, one of them would be canada. they just negotiated an agreement with the eu. it took seven years, but if you have that focal point, you could say we are on a glide path, we know it will take a long time. that would reduce a lot of the uncertainty about where the u.k. is going and where the globalization is going. at the end of the day, you would not be a member of the eu, but you would have some relationship , and you would know what the tariff arrangements would be and what the migration flows would be. federal reserve bank of st. louis jim bullard speaking earlier. -- brexit may be a reality becoming a reality, but doesn't mean an end to the u.k.'s
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relationship with the european union? redrawingwrites about post brexit relationships. he was also a lowball award finalist for his column. he is pretty on the money when it comes to this kind of thing. the brexit vote, the landscape has changed. we do not know what it means for britain yet. how do you come up with scenarios at this point? peoplelready have resigning, leading candidates for the party. lisa may was a remain supporter. michael go was for leave. the brits are negotiating team and they don't even want to trigger the process. they want to pre-negotiate everything before the official negotiation begins. so what we are seeing in these early goings is that the brits will want the best deal they can cut -- possibly get between the
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closest continuing relationship with the european union, while absorbing as few of the costs, contributions to the eu budget, acceptance of free travel, and so on. not the spirit of the europe that was created, going back to 1949, the creation of the european council. is exactly what angela is saying, no cherry picking. we will have protected negotiations over this. europe was never a unitary thing. it is not the united states in aresense that all 50 states equal in exactly the same in their relationship with each other and washington. the case of europe, take a look at the magazine, a bend diagram, a complicated set of interlocking, overlapping circles of different unions and
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associations. vonnie: wto's, nato. >> the council of europe, eurozone, economic area, and even today, is not in the heart of europe. area whichnot in the allows border-free travel between member countries. for britain to move from this spot in the venn diagram to maybe this spot, it is not as if texas were to secede from the u.s. vonnie: there have been all sorts of agreements in place even before there was free movement of labor. there had been agreements with other countries, but will it be easy to resurrect those agreements, or put in place new agreements, now that they have rejected the european union ideal? >> there will be some real cost to this, which is why you will have the morris campaign may be unduly the whole thing.
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theresa may, for example, is saying no, the people have spoken. we have to go ahead with this. there will be consequences. but i try to make the point that it is not an all or nothing situation. it is a good thing that europe has differential integration, to wantxact amount you vonnie:. what doesn't mean for central bankers, reacting or being proactive? will react, and we have seen already where the bank of england is signaling, and there is continued turmoil, they will cut rates, which is why stocks have gone up. our thanks to peter coy and you can read his latest story in the latest bloomberg businessweek. news in the pharmacy space. and then it be planning asset sales in order to quash humana's antitrust worries in order for
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this sale to go through. etna, i should say, is repaired .o sell the company is working with advisers to identify a portfolio of assets, if divested, could reduce overlaps between its operations and humana. tna doing all it can to prepare for a smooth takeover. for this and other stories, let's go to ramy inocencio. ramy: i am also looking at humana, popping in trading. it was down by about a percent, but now it is rising. the share price was about $170. now up to about $174. in terms of what i want to talk about, the best and worst for the week. let me take you to what is
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happening in the one week since brexit. it has been a roller coaster week. in the first two days post -brexit, we had this huge fall, but we have been recouping losses. the dow is up 3%, similarly in the s&p. brexit, since this time last week on friday, the s&p is half a percent away from recouping all of its losses. .4% away from recouping its losses. let's take a look at what is ju. hershey foods, we reported earlier, monfils wanted to take over. stock is up 50% despite her she's saying no to the offer.
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endo pharmaceuticals raided a new market performed by bmr capital. patent won a u.s. related to a drug that increases blood pressure. the expiring is not until 2035, so some stability there. vonnie: thank you. coming up, larry oracle loses a $3 billion verdict. up.judge says it must pay we will take you inside the silicon valley drama next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. a jury in california has ordered our call to pay $3 billion for bailing out of a chip deal with hp. cory johnson joins us now from san francisco. no chump change, $3 billion on top of $9 billion.
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cory: the $9 billion was from an earlier trial. course, $3 billion is a concern to these guys. oracle had a deal with hewlett-packard back when mark hurd was there. this titanium chip was thought to be a potentially important platform for development across the industry, between intel, hewlett-packard, and beyond. mark hurd was forced out as ceo and only to resurface at oracle. when he arrived, according to the trial, oracle stopped , stopting this chip developing new things, and that was the basis of this trial. vonnie: is it possible that allison or somebody else realized that this was not going to be the chip of the century and wanted to backtrack, is that possible? is exactly what
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oracle contends. their contention all along was that we did not say we were going to do this forever. we were going to do this for as long as it made sense to do it. says that we continue to pour our software ium indefinitely, and we do not do so today. when a jury looked at it, they had a different reaction and felt oracle had a contractual obligation. since then, the rest of the industry has also walked away from this chip. hewlett-packard and intel do not even developed for this platform anymore, but nevertheless, the jury looked at the facts and decided that oracle was wrong tremendousbed a penalty, the largest of any sort in 2016. vonnie: what is the verdict of the court in silicon valley public opinion? whether or not this was a
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real benefit to hewlett-packard is a? . oracley has decided but says they will appeal. hewlett-packard's statement was also interesting, they found fault with oracle when they went on to talk about this. i think we have that statement. we can show you what they had to say. maybe we do not. vonnie: we are going to tune into "bloomberg west." $3 billion worth in size. you can catch more on that verdict and recent verdicts when it concerns a oracle on "bloomberg west." you are watching bloomberg markets. ♪
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vonnie: welcome to "bloomberg markets."
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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. we're taking you from boston to london to washington. here's what we are watching. u.s. stocks fluctuating now. bonds are rising worldwide on speculation central banks will ask to limit any follow from the brexit vote. note, president of the bank of st. louis. talksrge chairman and ceo about new cancer treatments in the social contributions of drug treatments. in the doway of july briefly turning negative now so let's turn to the market now. >> the dow as well as the s&p

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