tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg July 5, 2016 12:00am-1:01am EDT
♪ >> asia-pacific stocks declined for the first time in a week as the idea of bank balance and easily it -- and italy gives investors another reason to be wary. rba policy makers are digesting the news that australia's trade deficit was a wider than expected in may. glenn stevens expected to hold the record low cash rate. modi expands his cabinet with a goal of minimum government and the maximum governance. he is sticking to the school --
to fiscal -- by -- in0 a.m. into the by. one of the things we are keeping an eye on is the rba rate decision. if you take a look at our world interest rate ability -- that is -- let's take a look right now -- i thought i had it on the screen -- here you go. this is what it looks like. most of the economists surveyed by bloomberg, save one, predicting it to be unchanged at one three quarters of a percent. that is a record low rate. most people feel that is likely going to be the case, but check out what is meant to happen in august. see this line? august 2, 2016, and right here, 1.5% down.
that would be a cut of 25 basis points. that is now a probability in the majority. 52.4 of those surveyed believe that is going to be the case, after the weekend. as the nation went to the polls. the nailbiter continues to be unsure as to what this government is going to look like . a lot of anticipation that there is going to be a minority coalition of perhaps a lot of horses trading that needs to happen for any government to remain in power that limits the scoped of any fiscal reform or legislation that could be stuck in the senate. so a lot of people feeling that driven policyrba when it comes to bulking up the economy. wirp is the function there. a quick check of the markets.
mumbai trading for 20 minutes now. fractionally lower as we take a look at modi's doing. hang hsing right now along with the top -- hang seng as well as topics, both down. rally halting this 40 that we have been seeing. it brought asian equities post-brexit -- equity markets factoring in as if there was no event that happened. of course it did. wiser heads are prevailing and perhaps some pessimism that this is going to take a while to unwind. there will be no trading across the middle east for the rest of the week as markets close for need -- close for eid. here is what it looks like. a lot of optimism across the by --in the by -- in the
-- to become the fourth player in italy's on market. hutchison'sion -- three battalions -- to win approval for the merger [indiscernible] and try to hold the eu to the deal. -- slumped by the 10% daily rate for a second straight day. [indiscernible] for the first time this year on monday following a whole -- a hold the company has announced a share sale in a bid to and the battle. u.k. ruling conservative party the fiveot its mps and
contenders hoping to succeed david cameron. meanwhile the decision to leave the eu may not be final after all. thousands of people want a second referendum and there are indications that the remain campaign would win. if female official says u.k. could stay in the block if it changes its mind. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. i'm rosalind chin. this is bloomberg. australia's trade deficit was whiter than expected in may, in at 2.2 aussie dollar's. comes as the reserve bank of australia sets the company -- set the countries castrate later today. no change expected. for more let's get over to paul allen in sydney. surveyed economists are unanimous. no cut today.
take a look at august, different story. paul: that is right. the reason for that is inflation will be less of it. when the rba less cut -- monday -- when the rba is inflationhe rba targeting the central bank and the felt they had to act. that is the reason why many economists feel august will be the next waypoint. how -- you can tell how they are feeling that is probably going to go. the parliamentary situation is in a complete state of flux. we cannot see any meaningful economic reform. more it is likely to fall to the reserve bank of australia to provide any theomic stimulus, despite
governor glenn stevens saying that there is limits to what monetary policy can achieve. angie: we also have the cliffhanger election. the counting resumes today. we areication of where going to be in a couple of days? who is going to hold power? paul: i am not sure anyone knows. it is exciting to find out. the accounting has resumed today. 1.1 million postal votes have arrived as the australian six into commission the elect -- sits into the electorate first. don't expect a result in the next two hours. perhaps a clearer picture will emerge by the evening or possibly toward the end of the week. we must have some idea of what the next government is going to look like financially. angie: paul allen, thank you so much.
let's get the mated -- let's get the latest on the markets. david? david: we are seeing the client still. the chinese markets are still on their lunch break. we are down .5%. new energy shares leading the declines to keep in mind we have been up for for five days. you have the rba near terms. jobs number at the end of the week. it is easy to expect a little bit of profit taking. a lot of analysts have flagged that the sobriety would not continue in medium-term. it is interesting to note that when you look at china, volumes of equity act up. we are looking at 9 billion shares already. we are just halfway through the day. i want to point out what is happening in the currency market . more portly, have a look at the dollar yen.
it is risk aversion. he the dollar gaining against everything else with the exception of the yen. it is pushing toward the second mode. one of 2.15. that really -- 102.15. just a shift back into safety. some people have already called a speculative trade. have a look at the deals here and we were just talking about australia, record lows there. japan, -24. these yields were higher in tilt 45 minutes ago. have a look at this. these results for the latest on auction -- latest bond auction in japan. if you're wondering what demand debt,e for negative yield well, it still has a bid to cover at 3.637.
a lot of people are expecting yields to fall further. angie. angie: asia-pacific markets bounceback to the shock of the uk's decision on your. that post-brexit optimism ebbing away. the uncertainty of the issue is still moving the markets here. let's discuss all of that with the cio of true capital partner. it was mind-boggling yesterday cia was at level -- -- it was notvel sustainable, was it? >> it wasn't aging right. comes the central banks. it almost looks exactly like you said like nothing even happened with one exceptn, the pound is down
about 10-ish percent. angie: how much can central banks step in? with low-interest rate environment for a long time, cheap money flowing, we have seen the outcome of that. it is called brexit. >> it is a good point you make, it is more of the same. it marks a happy. suddenly the right parks -- rate hikes have diminished. we apply a medicine that does well for markets. those markets are back up. markets are at relatively high levels. -- angie: what we are seeing is playing out in the united states right now. of a trump, if
that happens, is that going to affect the trajectory of the central-bank action from the federal reserve? question.at is a good on the one hand there is going to be uncertainty in the market. on the other hand, they will be first to use it, because if you look at the mobile package desk lower picture, there are three guys out there -- bigger picture, there are three guys out there. johnson got his brexit. theot in holland, probability for a brexit like move. are having worries at the moment. a lot who are angry. maybe the recipe to square friendships is more stimulus. angie: you can report to us when you move to chicago. good luck to you on your move. it was great having you here in asia. i'm sure we will talk again.
>> we have to do more to reaffirm the faith of the australian people in our commitment to medicare. that commitment is there. finally there were concerns. now there are other issues distrustto a general or sense of disenfranchisement from government. we will work harder, much harder, to again ensure the australians understand our very deep commitment to them,
-- it is notr all about the personalities of politicians. it is not about the media. it is about 24 million australians. it is about their dreams, their aspirations, family, sense of security, anxiety about the --ure, government services whether they can keep their job, get a better job and so forth here it on sunday, i prop -- so forth. on sunday i promised that we in the coalition would dedicate our efforts to resolving the state of the next parliament without rancor. that remains might commitment as prime minister. as far as the outcome is concerned, the accounting is continuing. we remain confident of security -- of securing a majority in the parliament. we remain confident in reforming
our government. we do, of course, await the conclusion of the count and we willave a clear idea of the direction over the next few days. >> thank you, prime minister. i would like to start saying thank you to the people of new england and the incredible honor -- angie: speaking in a live press conference. addressing the media in sydney. he says he takes full sponsibility for the election campaign. he is also updating 24 million australians about the latest results showing that voters are discontent with major parties. the two major parties getting the lowest support since 1943. turnbull saying that the election votes have been counted and 3 million votes will be counted over the next few days.
really marking that we will not likely get an answer until the next couple of days. he reaffirmed his promise of a coalition free of rancor or division. he does remain confident that he can put together a majority in parliament, but of course reforming the government still left to be counted with 70% of votes counted so far. still 30% to go. it is all politics, disenfranchisement was key in this election, as well as it was with brexit. let's continue our discussion with cosi i'll of truth market capital. distant -- aa disenfranchisement but also anger that globalization. these are things that the average voter is feeling very angry about. .obias: absolutely
he said thing is if you vote for brexit, it does not go away. ,f you look at globalization look at european example, there are many things wrong with europe. stepping out of europe is not takes --ou can -- it it doesn't work to turn your back. angie: we are already looking at fractured eu, regardless of what anybody says. how is that going to impact strategies moving forward? from a political perspective, even with the eu, it needs to change. they need to use this as a step in the way of things have to change it if u.k. -- change. if u.k. vote for brexit, they have to go. notish and brits should make any mistake about it. passport and financial services
definitely not a given. there is a way that if popular sentiment will vote toward remaining, and you saw the -- a lot of people having regrets. if you get a separate opinion poll that shows a bit of support for remaining, then a political leader, especially home secretary may, -- angie: she said that she was a quiet supportive of the remain camp. the thing is at the end of the day, you still have global markets, you still have gyrations and you also have a slowing down of china. does that exacerbate the global picture? tobias: if you take a look a look -- if you take a look outside, everybody is negative. -- maybe from the investors perspective, maybe because of the central banks, because
everybody think it is going to be all right. if you look at the price in markets, it is almost at this year's lows. if people are afraid of what is going to come out of china, actually, the whole post-brexit recovery -- and slump in the price of movement might be a opportunity to slightly hedge your bets. and combine it with global markets because timing volatility is difficult. insurance premium has come down. angie: insurance premiums, interesting there. if you're looking for yields, you'll go anywhere. to become you will. i have to teach my kids at some point, when i was a kid, we had this thing called interest. if you look the u.s., the rate political situation is so charged. miss yellen theirs to do it next to the election.
-- ms. yellen theirs to do it next to election. the idea ofly like the negative interest rates. angie: it means that more people have to save more because they are not getting yielded. also it means that you are going to have to look elsewhere for investments like housing, the likes. most people are living in really hot property markets. tobias: [indiscernible] the results of the central bank policy are great for policy and the debtors. -- whether it is a dutch pension plan holder. these people are feeling the brunt of it. angie: it affects with what we started which is disenfranchisement between markets and the real world.
angie: welcome back. this is "bloomberg markets: middle east." i am angie lau. netanyahu arrived and after on monday -- boosting diplomatic ties. elliott goc and has more from tel aviv. elliott, for netanyahu, the chip is also personal. elliott: he has time to this five day, for country trip to coincide with the 40th anniversary of the raid on into the. this is when the lane going from tel aviv to paris was hijacked
by post any and's and german terrorists and diverted to the army of uganda. -- even a mercedes made up to look like idi amin's car. they took out all of the hostage takers. they took up 45 ugandan soldiers. three hostages were killed. was yanni soldiers netanyahu, benjamin netanyahu's oldest brother. -- lessons should be learned from that event. >> suffered a stinging defeat. the rescue mission proved that good can prevail over evil, that hope can triumph over evil, over fear. today's terror is once again sweeping the world. we must recognize that the battle against it is indivisible.
angie: elliott, net yahoo! also looking to find new markets for -- eally business and elliott: he has 70 is his executive traveling with him. -- he has 70 business executive's traveling with him. israel is looking to find new markets. it is being forced into this because it's too biggest trading partners are not buying as much as they were, partly because of the strength of the shekel. but partly because of the problems -- we know the turmoil is going there. growth has been slowing. israel is looking for new markets to offset the slowdown in traditional markets. angie: watching that very important diplomatic tightrope. -- thai trip.
elliott goc and, thank you for that. is ridiculous change. this is bloomberg. get ready for the rio olympic games by switching to xfinity x1. show me gymnastics. x1 lets you search by sport, watch nbc's highlights and catch every live event on your tv with nbc sports live extra. i'm getting ready. are you? x1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversal's coverage of the rio olympic games. call or go online today to switch to x1. you guy's be good[ bark ] i'll [ bark ]later bye. see ya pal. ever wonder what your pets do when you leave home? [ laughing ] aw you cutie pie. aw. aw. aw. aw. [ barking ] [ washing machine running ]
>> we are standing by for the catch registers from the reserved bank of australia. all economists surveyed by bloomberg addicted this, so no surprise. let's have a look at some of the headlines crossing now. the rba noting that the australian dollar depreciating good coveted economic digestion complicateting could -- holding policy is prudent at this time. they see inflation remaining low for quite some time.
that is the one i was when for cause most economists surveyed believe there will be a cut to the cash rate in august. we are waiting on consumer prices for the second quarter which is due out on july 27. rate 1.75% in may. a statement on the first reading is that they may be prepared to go again in august. that would dovetail what most economists believe. cash rate unchanged as expected at 1.75%, angie. rba a the go function for lot of expectation. 52.4% expectation for a cut in august. let's get reaction on the markets right now. rba is saying things unchanged. reports watching that aussie dollar. david? david: it was expected. when you look at the aussie dollar, keep in mind that all of
the algorithmic or ramps -- , that beingprograms said, unchanged. 35.38. four-year --s the forward guidance. the signal that rates will remain lower for longer. that means will they cut in the future? 75 30 -- 7538. have a look at the index. 200 -- asx 200 has been trading will all morning. that is something to watch. [indiscernible] flag this. we have been moving toward parity, 7% lower. should expect -- seen a little bit of a spike there. start talking about parity it
goes the other way. let's have a look at yields. 194 -- 10 year is that 194. still at record low. thanks david. it is 5:30 a.m. in the u.k. and anna edwards georges from our london studio -- and anna edwards joins us from our london studio. anna: we are focusing on the politics. u.k. politics takes center stage. a chart shows the political risks as measured by the bmt, political risk index. it shows the surge in euro political risks. the central bank having to deal with it that's a deal with an uncertain environment and that heart of the world. the brexit conversation and the result of that referendum on the
27th of june has raised the political risks in europe and -- in europe to levels that we have not seen. we see the uk's conservative party, the government here trying to find a new leader. conservative mps will be voting today. this is the first of a number of votes that they have and they gradually reduced the list of right around five, down to a final one. the contenders are trying to differentiate themselves on policy toward eu nationals the live in the u.k. the most of them are talking about the end of freedom of movement across europe. some of the contenders come from the leave campaign and some from the remain campaign. we are seeing a few divisions there. -- he the front runners has the backing now. boris johnson who was inspected to run but is not running. he says -- i don't know what he
means. she is one of the front runners. the reason may also a front runner. she is the secretary -- teresa may, also a front runner. tonight london time, we get the first round of results. when i expect to know who the prime minister is until september 9. angie: those political shocks continue. what about the economic effect? is there evidence what effect brexit is going to have on the u.k. economy? anna: week call -- we have gone all the way into the referendum. there talking about the science they have seen in some of the data. the economy is weakening a bit. we've got construction pmi yesterday. that was much weaker than analysts expected. it was well below 50.
it showed contraction in the construction sector. some of that was in the run-up to the 27th of june. that was of interest. we've also got numbers overnight from the center for economics and business research. they have done some analysis which shows a sharp drop in business confidence, 49% of u.k. businesses pessimistic about the future of economic outlook. i'm ever some of the polling that bloomberg had done that showing% of economists the u.k. going towards some kind of recession. mark carney will be speaking at 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. he delivers his report. a lot of financial stability to talk about this morning. angie: anna edwards, thank you for that. checking in for first word headlines from around the world. let's go to haidi lun. thei: rio tinto's ceo says
company will keep its headquarters in london. the brexit vote -- sent shockwaves through global markets are to some companies including j.p. morgan and hsbc have indicated they must move jobs out of the country. japan's messaging app has raised its price of the ipo to as much as $1.1 billion. the demand and market conditions as it prepares what could be the largest tech ipo of the year. -- after delaying plans to go public two years ago. china's postal bank has revealed an 11% jump in profit ahead of its planned shares which could be the world's biggest -- the hong kong stock exchange showing a net income in a three mark -- stanley,achs, morgan
china's international capital, jp morgan chase and bank of america -- which could raise $8 billion. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. lun.haidi this is bloomberg. big m&a deal may be in the works in china is financial sector -- in china's financial sector. discussed more that, stephen engle. >> it is enough of that suit. -- alphabet soup. basically a lot of these chinese financial companies merging. they want to make them stronger. china international capital corp. is cofounded, morgan stanley back in 1995. a big play in china.
they used to be the biggest brokerage as well. in addition to doing a lot of the coal underwriting of the ipo's for big chinese companies, including china postal. they are also a broker. they were number one in 2005. the landscape has changed quite a bit. a lot of other players, huge competition in the broker space. they are 25 in terms of revenue. they need to reinvent themselves. china --in -- incomes if you combine these two, it makes sense in revenue terms. assets totaling 186 billion yuan. talks of -- talks are private right now. said to be talking about a merger. we did have a statement after the stock to a -- stock took a big pop up at one point yesterday. the stock was up again this morning. the icc confirming it is in the limitary discussions with china
investment securities on strategic cooperation and business opportunities. did not say merger. angie: would it boost their rankings as one unit? steven: it looks like it could make sense if these two combine. it is a good deal for the icc. china's investment securities .as 160 branches they cater to the mass-market brokers markets where is the icc is more high network -- high net worth individuals. they are more of a traditional investment bank where is cis is a mom-and-pop brokerage. angie: stephen engle, thanks for that. >> that is not the only big merger that is making news. the london stock exchange winning support from shareholders in the u.k. yesterday. -- bothrelator approval
have been looking -- a brexit, it is really compensated things in terms of putting these two businesses together. voicesrought up a few saying it is not a good idea. but, the two sides are pushing ahead and saying this is a good deal for both sides. one of the key factors before the vote as well as now is the headquarters. regulators have said they do not want the combined exchange based in london. the current plan is the exchange keeps -- it will be holding company which is based in london. [indiscernible] if they don't base the holding company in london, and consider moving it somewhere else? maybe the netherlands? they could only consider this after any detailed order is --roved -- which of bosses
investors have until july 12 to tend to the shares. the deal has to be completed. headquartersh a tends to be a key point. the london stock exchange and shareholders -- the headquarters would not be moved to germany. if the $14.3 billion deal would have 24% -- but you would have 54%. despite the convocations, lsd says 99.92% for shareholders which is pretty much all of them voted in favor of the deal. the merger would -- compete with the likes of cma this cme -- cme. anna? anna: stock market trading is one thing but lsd is a majority -- lsd is a majority owner of --
post-brexit, this is a part of the industry that is at the coal face of the lyrical couples that we are seeing going on as the cake is working out what its role going to be in the european financial services. >> political couples getting involved in these business as well. -- in this business as well. germany saying the same thing about frank for it. -- saying the same thing about frankfurt. 48 -- elsie h -- if your8 trillion ex claire's $19 trillion this month. -- [indiscernible] key factor behind this deal.
ultimately the deal would also have to pass regulators in brussels, the u.k. and u.s. and boomer survey only -- a only --g survey -- anna? anna: despite the shareholder vote, things far from all the facts known here. rosalind chin joining us. assessing the brexit affects in india. our next guest says prepare for a twofold impact. this is bloomberg. ♪
we have this new barris and, senior economist. thank you for joining us. modi is promising smaller government and bigger governance . isn't that what we are going to get today? vishnu: it is far from clear that we will achieve that in one swipe, because at the end of the day, we do realize that for the last for years, we have lost some capital. it doesn't need to move the pieces such that he can move through the reforms as well. it is not going to be about putting the blinders on and the delivering it in one swoop. angie: is this delivering reform quicker? or just shuffling the deck chairs on the titanic? vishnu: this is going to be left to chance. at the end of the day, some of -- athuffle would be
least he is tried to move the pieces. nonetheless, politics have turned out to be somewhat more challenging than he initially would have imagined. i think at the end of the day, we'll get some reforms passed. -- theckier once stickier once might have to take a backseat. angie: good to have you on the program. i wanted to ask you a question. as an economist, the clues underlying the data of the strength of the indian economy. something -- i don't understand gdp, i look at volume totaled -- buying growth in toothpaste at one of the clues you look for that gives the underlying story on indian growth? vishnu: i see where that statement is coming from.
we did have a shift in gdp and suddenly all of the numbers were revised up. for me, i look at things like auto sales, as well as some of the underlying industrial output indicators. what we have to keep in mind is to some extent, some of these demand factors are affected by what is going on -- exacerbated by china. why i look at auto sales closely is because demand for -- it is beginning to pick up again. we want to look at this quick to diddley with the banking data -- look at this coincidentally with inking data. -- with banking data. that could turn out to be a bigger impediment that could forestall any sustained recovery. i'm looking at the banking
sector quite closely especially in a difficult mobile environment. angie: difficult global environment and what do you think the big challenges their? up.t of credibility built what is the big challenge they need to focus on the new arrival? are quitee challenges a few. to do to credentials come in and say i will still do a good job of this. to actively establish credentials when it comes to inflation targeting and price ability. you need to pick it up. .o say there is no change the banking sector reforms have to be kept going. -- foodr environment inflation is important. inflation is going to start
picking up from here. they kind of headwinds one might face from global demand might start to weigh in. consumer spending and things like that, the new governor will be in a more curious position where a trade-off between -- more finely defined. a great point because a lot of analysts we talked to in hong kong .2 brexit appeared the exposure -- in hong kong point two brexit. when you look at india, there is still some fear that there is exposure from brexit, no? vishnu: yes. firstly because first order affects. india is more exposed on a relative basis. it is exposed to eu and u.k. this one area is going to be affected. a lot of -- some kind of tire or
linkage with the u.k. to some , and a the eu second-order effect in africa. the loop cannot be denied. there would be some impact. at the end of the day, if it is going to result in capital leaving asia, then india cannot be insulated from this either. as we are going into this environment, it knocks some of the shine off of the india story which is in all fairness a relative price spot. angie: thank you so much for that. coming up, live streaming your life has become the latest internet craze to sweep china. yes, putting it all out there with some startups putting u.s.
anna: welcome back. i am anna edwards in london. angie: i am angie lau in hong kong. budgie jumping and insect eating, sounds like an interesting life. it is one of the many activities being must on livestream by millions of people in china. we've got to ask heidi what is going on. it is kind of weird. heidi: what are they doing? . perley this is the business --one person explains it they say it is a combination of loneliness, of young people that do not have siblings.
enormous -- looking at other people's lives here some of them range from not really doing much in the way of doing interesting things at all. from talking to each other -- and then you have these videos, more adventurous tasks, bungee jumping, eating maggots. it is just ordinary people. china's richest man livestream himself playing poker with his mates on a private jet. 300,000 people tuned in to watch him. >> they are tuning in and they are making somebody money. if you get your own life streaming channel, people could tune in. you can turn that into revenue. you would get up to 50% cut of the money. a lot of these tech giants and
startups in china are trying to get a piece of it. as you get more popular, there is greater ad revenue. facebook is doing the same with their facebook live application. twitter acquired periscope last year. this is something that a number of tech companies are trying to explore. it is interesting. streaming in live china at the moment saying it is not a fad, it is a business model that is viable. it is going to be a bubble. -- in china. >> the production cost, very low , unlike our live streaming right now which is a little bit more costly. we should beginning virtual gifts. we should send them to each other at wiki expanding spending