tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg July 10, 2016 12:00am-1:01am EDT
a.m. for london. yousef: what an end to the week on friday. risk on, that is what the market is telling us. let us show you how the markets in the u.s. close, the doubt up 144% -- the dow up 1.4%. a similar picture in the middle east. most markets closed last week. so how they closed after the last trading, and now we are hours away from coming back online. up 1%,-- dubai, of 1% -- driven by banks and insurance companies. gains offmaking some of the back of the devaluation discussions. quick take on how the energy markets closed on friday.
a tumultuous session to say the least on thursday and friday, hanging onto some of those levels. around 1%. and under $47 a barrel. we will get to that shortly, but first checking in on the first world headlines. elliott: good morning. the leader of the opposition party has conceded defeat in the closely fought australian election. the labor leader said it was clear that the prime minister's coalition would form a government. it did look like -- of parliament was likely after neither side was able to reach the quoted to form a government. it was no indication of when a final result would be declared. inflationna, consumer for a second month. in fact, deflation has moved further, dropping 2.6% amid a
rebound in high commodity prices. inflation below the 3% target. and looking at further easing, if needed. nato in the face of what they call insecurity and is the ability from moscow to north africa. leaders of the 28 member organization say they were determined to remain united and tackling challenges from assertive russia and other terrorism. it was a dominant theme of the two-day summit where david cameron and president obama seem to be out of office. and president barack obama is cutting short his trip to spain to go to dallas in wake of the shooting attack that left five police officers dead and seven wounded. he plans to return to washington on sunday, before going to texas
next week. warsaw, he said that the latest shooting only added to the need for action on gun control. >> we are unique among advanced countries in the scale of violence we experience. i am not just talking about mass shooters, i am talking about the hundreds of people who have already been shot this year in my hometown of chicago. the ones we consider routine. global news, 24 hours a day, this is bloomberg. yousef: thank you. u.s. markets surged on friday, helped by a solid rebound in the market. it is the sound is hiring gain in a month.
tracy alloway is here. good morning. >> good morning. yousef: we will jump into that discussion, but first let me set the stage with the oil data that we got. we will focus on the charts. we had a 4.8% tumble on thursday, then holding on and a stabilizing on friday. singles -- it signals -- it was down last week. a smaller drop them forecast, but they keep in -- the key thing is it is the lowest since 2014. you can see, though u.s. -- the u.s. oil production, showing you these.ationship with all you can see these on your bloomberg. again, the shaded area, the 2006 showing -- 2016, showing a downtrend and declines continuing, hardly mixed signals. more important, the u.s. jobs
data. break it down. >> my chart is not as gorgeous, but we should talk about the payrolls. that was the big event last week. 87,000 gain, versus those expectations for 180,000, so really beating the estimates. the question is, is this the beginning of something new or the end of something? if you smooth out the payroll gains, that is the light blue line, they are the accelerating. so our jobs strengthening, or are we looking at a peak in terms of the job market strengthening? yousef: how does this factor into expectations as to how the federal reserve is going to move? >> we saw the stocks up off of the back of that, and the dollar posted a weekly gain. and we saw just rate expectations rise, so now we have about 21% probability for a
rate increase by the end of the year. that probability was at 12% the day before payroll, so the stronger the u.s. jobs data has shifted expectations, but the question for the fed will be how to square the u.s. domestic data with what is happening internationally in places like here, the gulf, u.k. with brexit? that is a difficult question. yousef: the markets in the good, bute been adjusting to life after the toxit, we have joining us look ahead to the reopening, today sam -- is it time for some catch up? >> you have been talking about an awful lot happening lastly, most middle east markets closed for 2-3 days. the interesting thing is moving beyond brexit, we have touched
on the oil price which is core for the markets here. and we had indication from the fed that the rate hike is a long way off my that is important for the emerging markets. we saw the index down a couple of days around the market close. then up. right now, it is still down. i expect more positivity with that. yousef: what will be the next catalyst. ? >> a lot of people were thinking about a quiet ramadan and we have had anything but. ,e had deals and now investors are they positioned for those deals or will we see turnover? >> it is interesting. bankig deal, the proposed merger in abu dhabi. the market has adjusted to that now. what will be interesting is that we are always talking about ramadan as a low volume time, but the summer months in the
middle east are similar, the heat is high and a lot of people -- we hear about the locals that go to london with their gold cars. it is indicative. a lot of expatriates leave the region. so i think we will see the low volume. it could increase the size of any move or any volatility. but i think it will be relatively low activity. that said, in egypt where it is mostly local participation, we are talking about potential the evaluation in egypt -- the evaluation in egypt, so that is stoking some activity and i think there will be some buying there. >> what will be the one thing that turns up the heat on markets, a particular catalyst you are looking for? >> egypt is the only really clear mover at the moment. if we change focus and we go
toward the debt market, obviously the oil prices have been an issue this year. we are at a record already for the first half of the year, and we still have saudi arabia, kuwait will be raising bonds in the next 12 months, we have properties in dubai, they are considering bonds. so i think that if you discard the stocks and you look at bonds, you will see activity there. yousef: what is on your list? >> i think that we are insulated from brexit. we are still with dollars, we get a bit of strength with the dollar strengthening against the euro and pound, so we have installation there. and the oil price is key. in many ways, that is the impact from brexit, indirect. as global growth slows, the oil prices drop, and that could be
negative for us. broadly speaking, we are fairly ok from the global turmoil and is more about the fed risk. yousef: sam, thank you. you can get more on that and the rest of the day's news on our digital destination, you will find in-depth reports and market data from the region, plus you can watch all of our reports and interviews, only available online. up, how will the u.k.'s to quit the eu affect the asian industry? we will look at the biggest gathering. ♪ marketsare middle east going when trading gets back on their way for the first time in almost a week. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
let's continue our conversation. joining us for a closer look at the breaking numbers, we are joined by the head of nina research and senior economist for emirates. let's break it down. i am looking at the trend in the run-up to the lattice -- latest data points. it has been up and down. so this comes at the same level as last month. of last slightly off month, ramadan started earlier this year than last year and i think it has been reflected in the marginal slowdown we have seen with the pm eyes in june -- pmi's in june. overall, it is robust. i think it is probably the biggest take away. yousef: can you at all be able to find sources of weakness in
the numbers? >> domestic demand is strong. we have since -- seen strong growth in orders, but the weakness is with the end -- with the employment side. they have been growing production, but they have not been employing more people. that tells us that will have to be gains in efficiency and firms are running leaner, so there, that shows us there is questions about growth. they are unwilling to hire like they have in previous years. >> but they are running on a longer-term basis and it could be positive for growth. it sounds like structural adjustment. >> it is. and it should have greater priority across the region. firms need to become more productive and i think that that is an indication that those firms are moving in that direction. yousef: what about saudi arabia? you mentioned structural changes
in the economy, so where is that heading in terms of the data? we talked about the uae. saudi arabia has the largest economy in the region. >> they have not seen a massive growth this year, but the trend is continuing in saudi arabia. we have seen output strong, even though the oil prices have fallen from a year ago. , this and saudi arabia has held back the overall pmi indicators so far this year. the other difference i think between saudi arabia and uae is the export demand, particularly on the saudi side it is weak. in saudi arabia, it is domestic driven. >> the saudi arabia pmi is an expansion territory, so what is driving that growth? it is surprising, because we talk about the low oil prices
and the academy is not doing worse in some respects. >> for saudi arabia, the fact they have increased oil production strongly, even though aices have fallen, has had supportive impact for the non-oil sector. manufacturing is related to oil and it is included in the oil sector from the pmi survey. so crude oil output rising and remaining strong, that is supporting the manufacturing side and the tech side. yousef: how has your view on oil changed over the last couple of weeks? we have had the numbers and we talked about earlier in the show, it has really hit the oil prices, down 4.8% and then it stabilize on friday. has it changed your outlook? >> it has not really. she has only recently revised very slightly from $39 a barrel
to 45 -- $44 a braille. we are still in that range and it has been indicated that she does not see a lot for the upside. movement at the end of last week was consistent with that. we see it around $50 for the rest of the year. >> so we have not mentioned brexit. brexit, we have seen a lot of commentators ratcheting down there forecast because of the uncertainty. what easy as the impact in the gulf region? >> it is limited. on the positive side, it will probably have an impact in terms of imported items from the u.k. they are a because net importer from the u.k.. so we should say that with inflation as well, having to brace for the impact of increases from the recent months. otherwise, we do not really see any significant macro impact in
terms of growth. yousef: hold it there. we have some breaking news. crossing the terminal, pmi for 54.4 arabia has come in at and also pmi for the united emirates at 53.4 and both are weakening,y, so some but still in expansion territory and that is what we discussed earlier as well. timing into the theme -- tying into the theme of oil importing economies monday have come under pressure and they are trying to pursue structural changes. we put this together for you. you can pull it up on the bloomberg. fx to see the probability for the foreign currency. for the object him out -- egyptian pound, the governor said it was good to defend and there was skepticism about an
upcoming devaluation. so what is your thought on the egyptian economy? >> the egyptian economy needs rexall reform and the balance -- structural reform and the bounds of payments is significant. it is difficult to see if successful exchange-rate policy. they have known for some time they need more flexibility. i think that this statement from the central bank governor is significant, because it is the first time they have indicated that a fixed exchange rate may not be the most appropriate for their economy. and that is something most would agree with. so this is an indication of potential further devaluation. we have already seen weakness, and we would expect that to continue going forward. >> the other big change taking place, aside from the debate over the fixed exchange rates, is the amount of debt on a
corporate and sovereign level. we were talking about the previous -- with the previous guest about how that has been happening. has it changed the economy and how does the intake -- and how does it change investor attitudes? >> from isaiah, it is a positive -- from our side it is a positive. over the last 10 years, those oil exporting economies have been a credit to the rest of the world. there has not been a push on openness, because there has not been a need to provide information to creditors. now, as you see these companies asking for borrowing, as well as push fors, there is a more information and i think overall that will be one of the biggest benefits generally for the region are much more openness about the state of the finances, corporate finances,
and the development of capital markets. the investments, more liquidity, and better pricing as well. so from our perspective, it has been a very low -- region of until now and i think going forward that will change. it is not a bad thing. yousef: you will stay with us. coming up, we will talk plenty more as we look ahead to the middle east markets reopening. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ welcome back. you are watching "bloomberg markets middle east." and we are continuing our conversation with the head of nina research. we talked about the region and i want to go back to the global conversation. a lot of systemic changes, we are looking for policymakers and what they will do in terms of
rate decisions. the federal reserve is one of them. we pulled of the easy to access function that will show you the breakdown in terms of expectations. and data indicating that the expectations for a cut does not really happen until 2017. is that how you see it? >> the rate hike will be the next move as far as we are concerned. we are certainly more hawkish than the rest of the markets. we think there will be one more move this year. onhad an excellent number friday, 270,000 more jobs. it is looking more like a blitz right now. so even with a very strong payroll number in june, even with markets seeming to take the brexit exit -- reasonably well, i think that they will wait for more
confirmation that the labor market is improving. yousef: what is your call? >> probably september. provided we see employment continuing to improve and the overall picture look as good as it has been, september is a good date. yousef: what are we going to see from mark carney? >> one would have thought that they would need to see more evidence of what is going on in the u k economy before they make a decision on easing the policy further. that would suggest august. but given how dovish he has been and his concerns on the macro side and his comments have been depressive, we may see a 25-50 basis point cut yousef: already. what about -- cut already. yousef: what about the boj and the yen? >> they will have to do
something more this year. the economic data we have seen -- i think it will continue this week as well, we get more data out of japan. certainly, they will need to ease and that is one reason why the fed may hold off. if they are expecting rate cuts in the u k and easing with japan, they do not need to do anything and they will still get a strengthening of the dollar, which is a part of the policy as well. yousef: exciting times. thank you for joining us. coming up, as the airlines industry's largest gathering gets underway, we will get to the details on the concerns over a slowdown. iswill discuss that and what in store for aviation. up next, this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ yousef: the top stories on bloomberg markets middle east. china's consumer inflation slowed for a second month, rising one point & on the year -- 1.9% on the year. withtion has dropped, higher commodity prices. the low inflation below the target pace offers them scope for further easing if needed.
and voting began on sunday for an election for the upper house in japan, as the prime minister has billed the chance to pass judgment on economic policy. he and his coalition partner are likely to win a majority of the 121 seed in contention -- seats in contention. they are hoping for a resounding victory that would allow the premier to make the next step towards revising the pacifist constitution. the u.s. president, barack obama, cutting short a trip to spain to travel to dallas, this scene of a shooting that left five of the city's police officers dead. obama plans to return to washington sunday night, before going to texas early next week. the meeting of nato leaders, he said, the latest shooting only added to the need of gun
control. the biggest events in the airline industry, the airshow getting underway on monday. and it is expected, the gathering southwest of london, saying -- seeing fewer orders than in recent years. we will talk about what is in store for this sector. we have the director of the air and space at sullivan. and tracy joins us again. what are your expectations, will we see a slowdown? >> this year, it will be slower. last year, we had -- and on borough -- around 200 orders. we do not expect as many this year. but this year will be about the new technology and design. as well as the presentation of some new aircrafts. yousef: how does your outlook
factor into the expectations for this airshow? i am looking at the notes here, you are pessimistic about the road ahead. >> generally, correct. it has been the best year in terms of possibilities for airlines, but what we now see is this is the fifth year of declining yields for airlines, so if we are looking at gold prices -- old prices, those are creeping up. >> declining yields, is that an indication of surplus capacity? >> increased competition, but also because of the lower fuel prices. they can pass on the savings from the fuel to consumers, so we see a lot more competition price wars between airlines. yousef: the oil prices are a double-edged sword for the airline industry, because as
they recover, they could become a threat again. they just got that threat off their backs. >> correct. if you look at the airlines here, they are affected more. it is in their home market, the nation here is oil dependent. but also because of lower fuel prices, that means they can expand faster and they can pass on the savings to consumers. eventually, if we see the oil prices increasing, that means airlines need to restructure operations. >> let's talk about this region, is there enough room in the middle east for the many carriers we have? >> the middle east is a bigger market. there is a lot of capacity and there will be an increase going forward in the next five years with the big orders that we have from qatar and emirates. over the next 15-20 years, i do
not think it is sustainable that we have such high growth. airlines are increasing capacity 10% every year, so that is above the global industry average. yousef: the yields show that they are actively engaged in a price war, to say the least. that will not be the case for long. >> it is unsustainable. you can see it every month, there is a promotion from the big names, from qatar, where this was not the case two years ago. they are actively seeking new market and new demand, by lowing prices -- lowering prices. >> any places that you see in the and to a price for or maybe any better -- immune to a price war or any better position? >> the u.s. is performing better than any other region, because they have been restructuring and
they are consolidating. in areas where you have consolidation and use the active restructuring, and the government being active in the market, that is where you will see better results in the future. yousef: we have seen some countries in the west take the lead on consolidations. creating synergies that help both parties. what about this part of the world? we talked aboutnsustainable yields, they have that in the financial sector from some of the government owns entities, so could you see increased cooperation between some of the airlines in this part of the world, because they are struggling and the yields are unsustainable? >> icy cooperation internationally -- i see cooperations internationally. they are looking for partners abroad. india is a big market and what is happening there is a major
concern to the middle east and fires. they are -- empires. they are looking there and at the u.s. as a big market. and they are looking at those attractively. >> if we see more consolidation, that could raise the company to with the u.s. carriers? this has been going on for years. >> at least two years and it is still active, but i do not see it as a major issue going forward. i think the u.s. knows that open skies is to their benefit. and it is for the benefit of the consumer. so the discussion is around the consumer and i do not see that with any backtracking, in terms of the open skies. but it is a threat. and as the airlines expand in the middle east, those carriers are expanding and it will have an effect on what the other countries do in terms of regulation. >> let's go back, when i used to
go to the airshows we would be talking about mega orders and that there would be so much buzz around the event. that is missing this year. a large part of that is because of the record orders from the past couple of years, so there is a backlog of orders. is that a cyclic will -- cyclical thing? >> many aircrafts are in the backlog. 13,000, to go over that you would need at least 5-6 years, so even if you order today you will not receive it before 2020. so that is a big factor. low oil prices do not help, because obviously it makes operating those older fleet more sustainable. and strong u.s. dollar, that is a negative point. yousef: we saw boeing make an agreement with the iran national airline earlier this month, so how disruptive or how much of an
opportunity is iran when it comes to aviation? we saw this deal and we have seen sanctions ease them is a what is your take? market andhuge compared to what they have today, aiding infrastructure -- gaing -- aging and researcher and fleets, they needed. whether it will materialize over the short term, i do not have a do not think that we will see any of these orders actually materializing soon. is thel do not know what sanctions and how they are being lifted, how it will affect the industry over the short term. i was in iran and i was talking to some airlines there and manufacturers, and nobody knows. it is a big market and everybody is looking at it and you should be. if you are an investor or a manufacturer, but it is
uncertainty. >> and a lot of them would like to see the pricing agreement when it finally does come on that order. the holy grail, to see that pricing agreement. let's talk about the airshow for one more second. what are some of the things you will be looking out for? are you looking at boeing versus ms -- versus airbus? what are the big topics? >> for the first year, i think china will have a strong presence. clearly it is a big event for the regional manufacturers, because they have a number of different aircraft they are introducing to the market. you will see a big presence from the regional manufacturers. boeing is celebrating 100 years, so that will be an event for them to celebrate. it will be quiet in terms of orders, but there will be a big event for networking, in terms of having one of the highest turnouts in terms of suppliers.
so it is a big event and an important event. the key focus should be on the technology and looking at big data and how you actually as a manufacturer, you incorporate big data and to help the airline. yousef: we have seen stories on the middle east pushing or considering the premium economy market. it is an established model and other parts of the world, but now they are trying to push out the first class in the airlines, but the premium economy has not come to the surface. is that something that will change? >> i do not see it in the immediate term. for the carriers here, the premium economy would be the fourth class. it really only works when you have two classes already, and he can fit it in. you already have the first class. the airlines here are betting on the premium branding, so i do
not think that that will be coming over the next 2-3 years. >> do you remember when we had a very highen we had a oil prices and we had all business class airlines, could those stage a comeback? >> i do not see that. business class only airlines have a lot of issues, problems. as long as that is coming from a startup carrier with a very little capital, i do not see that expanding. >> won't the lower oil prices change the proposition for these models? >> yes, but there is uncertainty. lower oil prices means that trade is falling and we have brexit now as well. so, as long as the premiums are not growing fast, and they are ,ot growing fast at this stage
yousef: let's check in on the first word headlines. elliott: thank you. -- the un'setary secretary-general has criticized the north korea missile program. he noted that while iran was reducing the nuclear program, it was not restricted development it the head of the energy organization says the country
was subject to a conspiracy. after he a good comments from -- echoed comments from angela merkel. and the historic agreement to provide 109 aircrafts coming under increasing pressure from washington. the republican senator said that the obama administration was at risk of allowing those companies to remain complicit. the deal with iran air worth $70 billion would be the biggest business deal between the u.s. and the republic since the revolution. and looking to take advantage of record low interest rate, speeding up plans for a $22 billion bond sale. experts say that they could gain interest as soon as this month, with timing to be considered this week. they want to finance the purchase of a generic drug making business, which is expected to receive approval
from the federal trade commission in the coming weeks. test firedh korea, a a missile one day after the u.s. and south korea promised to employ a missile program by the end of the year. it comes after u.s. sanctions have targeted the korea leader, considered a declaration of war. the missile test appears to have failed in early flight. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yousef: thank you. the leader of the opposition party has conceded defeat in the closely fought australian election. the conservative leader said it was clear that the prime minister's coalition would form a government. we will get more from the sydney bureau chief, edward johnson, who is live on the line.
edward, run us through this. does this give us clarity in terms of what to expect from a unity government? edward: it has been a week since we spoke and over the past week, the commission has slowly and painfully been looking at the votes. that process is still underway. although he has conceded, we are waiting to hear with the final tally will be. and we might not know until july 15, that is the deadline for the postal votes to be accepted. so what we do know is that the prime minister's coalition, the liberal nationals, they will return to office. we do not know if they will be able to form a majority in the house. in order to do that, they must win 76 seats.
currently, the best estimate is that they have 74. the australian broadcasting corp . says they will get anywhere between 75-77. we are looking at them having to form a minority government if they do not reach that number, with the help of some independent lawmakers. they have been busy this week getting support. the feminist are has -- prime minister has a secured assurances from three independents, that they will support the government. so, we know that the government is over the line, we just do not know if they will be getting their own or not. yousef: when will we know if the majority has been secured and what kind of impact does it have on the austrian political front? edward: we are a few days away from knowing, so we are going to
have to look at the level of uncertainty. regardless of whether they 77, or 74, what the election has shown is that the prime minister's government has returned without a strong mandate. he went into the election nine months after getting control of the liberal party, promising strong economic leadership, promising to help the nation chart these troubled waters of transitioning after a mining investment boom among wanting that boom, wanting to stoke innovation. and he ran on a pledge of creating jobs and growth. he started with 90 seats in the lower house and he has lost that buffer. and really, the election has raised questions on his leadership. there was already a conservative home -- conservative group that
is not want him to take over. so now he faces three years of potentially having to trade with independent mp's to get legislation through the lower house. and he faces a pretty angry group within the coalition that has been him that that has seen him -- that has seen him put them in a weaker position. yousef: we are not getting some breaking news on the terminal, the australian prime minister is speaking in sydney. , he adds they had constructive thoughts with cross ventures -- benchers. still coming up, we will look at whether the fed will be reassured by the latest jobs a surge -- jobs surge.
♪ back, you aree watching "bloomberg markets middle east." tracy is back. i want to jump into the payrolls, one of the themes of today. we have seen the market reaction on friday and it is almost euphoria, but is it justified? >> i bring you three charts that will take us through the next week in tms of what is important for investors. the first one have to do with payrolls. this is the labor market conditions index. an indicator that the fed came up with them a it was supposed to be a wider measure of employment. it is coming out on monday, so it will be more closely scrutinize than usual because of
the debate we are having over the payrolls. yousef: what are we looking at? is in a white and it has been declining and the blue line come a which is payrolls -- blue line, which is payrolls, you can see whether the payrolls start to come down and which of those two things the fed cares about. does it care about lcmi or payrolls? yousef: it relies on the shoulders of many. definitely, there seems to be a downward trend >>. yes. second-quarter earnings season starts next week and will be a big event for risk appetite around the world. and we have been in and earnings recession for the past seven-six quarters. we have had year on year declines and a visual probably
be the seventh according to goldman sachs. now, that could take some of the air out of stocks we saw them rally again. but the thing i think that can give the stock investors hope is this chart. it is the u.s. 10 year yields, the treasury yields, versus the s&p 500. basically, what is happening is the government debt reaches new lows and a stocks look more attractive. you have investors that are forced into stocks coming even if they do not think the earnings outlook is great. yousef: the other part of the story, we are also talking about commodities and we have spoken about oil. how is the move for commodities going and what else should we take into consideration after the rally we saw? >> the bloomberg commodities index is not faring as well as
it was a few weeks ago. if you remember, just a little while ago, we had optimism among the commodities and they were hopeful that the oil producers would be cutting back and el niño was cutting into production, which was boosting prices. that seems to be faltering. we can see the u.s. bring production on stream. and given the brexit uncertainty, it looks like the rally is starting to get a little bit -- which would be bad news for us in the uae and all freedom. yousef: always a pleasure talking about the key factors and events to look out for. that is it for this edition of "bloomberg markets middle east." we will be live from the region again at the same time tomorrow. ♪