tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg July 11, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
, and the u.k. will have a new prime minister by wednesday night. as andrea letson drops out of the leadership race, paving the way for home secretary theresa may to become leader of the conservative party. the homeaiting secretary, we gather she will speak later this evening as early as 6:00 p.m. we are also expecting to hear from the chairman of the 1922 committee as well, to hereby inform us that theresa may will be the leader of the conservative party. ,hat's the big news, vonnie cameron said the new prime mr. will be in place by wednesday night. vonnie: a relief for a lot of investors. the pound is rallying off the
back of that, up about .25% versus the u.s. dollar. more on british politics. it's 90 minutes into the trading day, let's head to the markets desk with matt miller. thank you, vonnie quinn. they market check amidst this breaking news, exciting breaking news coming out of the u.k. how do we not completely separate from what's going on the motivation for this? we are happy to see less certainty in the market, and this means less certainty. that, combined with the jobs number on friday, little concerned that the feds going to raise rates. the stimulus we expect to get out of japan, some people are talking about ¥20 million out of stimulus from japan. gains across the board, if we close anywhere near this, he will be a new closing high for the s&p 500. the previous closing high in may of 2015. it looks like we are going to
finally get a new high in this late stage of the bull market. i shouldn't say that, they do the bull market will go on for another 10 years. let's take a look at the separation of indices groups on the index. you can see information technology, one of the biggest gainers. inrgy is also a huge gainer today's market. we also see health care rising, financials for the most part rising. consumer discretionary rising in industrials. take a look at tech stocks, the big names, the facebook, microsoft, the apples and googles. all putting up gains of less than 1%, because they are so heavily weighted. to the s&pints index. also take a look at energy gainers. oildon't see a huge gain in , but you didn't see a big swing from losses to gain. xon, chevron, candor morgan, which is getting part of its pipeline business bought right now by southern, all showing big
gains here. finally, i want to take a look at oil. there's a lot of movement. i would say look at the0 year, oil right now is down by three cents a barrel. look at the 10 year yield, that will be the most exciting thing to watch. the yield is up on the 10 year, this is still crude oil, you can .ee the eu is up about .05% it comes down we see a record low yield for the 10 year at the same time as a high for the s&p 500, a would be the first time in history that we have got those two things happening at the same time. mark: check out the gmm function, global macro movements, stocks, currencies, bonds, credits and commodities. it's a day of green today. big gains on europe's equity bosses, the portugal psi up by 2.3%, germany up by 2%. norway up by 1.7 percent. the currencies rising against
the dollar. among them, the pound, which i will come to an a second and peripheral bond market yields declining today. stocks rising for the third consecutive day. -- 20% below, 2400 the record last year. you are not having the date you are witnessing in the united states. this shows you volatility. the ftse versus ftse 100. fromtse 100 is recovering its post prices selloff, up by 5% since tuesday. growing concerns over the votes repercussions on the domestic economy have pushed volatility for the ftse 250 two an all-time high, relative to the measure of large caps. as you can see from the chart, 2001 to 2016. the gauge of mid-cap companies is still roughly 5% below the level it was at the close on june 23. we have individual companies to a stake about, selling
in unicom for three and $64 million to improve the balance sheet. moody's said the carrier risks having its credit rating cut should it fail to identify a path towards reducing debt by the end of the year. just as we heard from david cameron, the prime minister, we will have a new prime minister by wednesday evening here in the u.k. this is what andrea letson dropped out of the race. it's been creeping higher ever since. you have a little bit of a burned there, it takes away uncertainty, vonnie. the uncertainty that would have been present through the next nine weeks, we were told there wouldn't be a leader in place until september 9. it takes away essentially nine weeks of uncertainty. vonnie: fascinating. it's definitely a female prime minister. let's check in on bloomberg first word news, corny collins has more.
courtney: officially, bernie sanders is still running for president, but he appears to be on the verge of endorsing hillary clinton. tomorrow, sanders will campaign in new hampshire, with the likely democratic nominee. clinton's campaign has been present for an endorsement, and last week he signaled one was imminent. he says we have got to do everything that we can to defeat donald trump and elect hillary clinton. meanwhile, most americans disapprove of the fbi's decision not to pursue criminal charges against hillary clinton. that's according to a new "washington post," abc news poll . 56% say clinton should have been charged for handling of classified e-mails while secretary of state. but 50% of voters say will not influence their vote in november. boeing is working methodically to complete a $25 billion deal with iran. the house overwhelmingly cast aimed at preventing the company from selling 100 planes to iran's airline. lawmakers are concerned the
flames could be used for military purposes. --spoke with bloomberg's with the ceo. and itade good progress is a significant opportunity for us. we are methodically going to the licensing process right now. i am encouraged by the progress we have made. but we still have work to do. courtney: boeing has said the iran deal complies with u.s. regulations. turns to the focus prime ministers plan first fiscal stimulus. his conservative coalition scored a convincing victory in the upper house election, winning a super majority. 156liberal democratic party of the 121 seats in contention. the junior coalition party 114 14 more.on he promises to expand japan's economy. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
i am courtney collins, this is bloomberg. mark: thanks. david cameron says theresa may will be the new leader by wednesday night. this comes after her only opponent in the tory leadership race drops out. country,terest of our our best served by the immediate appointments of a strong and well supported prime minister. i am therefore withdrawing from the leadership election, and i wish theresa may the very greatest success. i assure her of my full support. joining us-- mark: to discuss this is john france. the final p.m. qs wednesday, he goes to the palace by wednesday night, and may will be in downing street. who would've guessed this this morning we woke up? john: anything is possible.
certainly, this is a huge big day for theresa may. she was the strong favorite, but there was lingering doubt, if we have this leadership campaign with the grassroots in terms of party politics, the way they are right now, anything that would have happened to let her in. it's all great news for theresa may. original shock was her saying she wasn't in the running, and then we get this announcement. why shoot now prime minister automatically and may lead the country without a democratically elected mandate until 2020? john: you are coming to the heart of the peculiarities of the british system. the way it works is that goes back centuries. invites the person in the house of commons who she thinks is the best chance of forming a government's, to buckingham palace, to form a
government. that's why theresa may has been selected to be the next prime minister. it's a very good question, why will they are not be another election? we have had calls from the labor democrats calling for one, but there will be people who say shouldn't have the mandate to go to brussels to negotiate a new deal for the u.k. with european union. right now, she is totally shutting that down, and from her camp, the talk is there's no chance of a snap election. there's no chance of we believe are from earlier comments of there being an early indication of article 50 as well. john: that is true. is a lot of work going on behind the scenes. even if she wanted to, it's not clear she would be able to trigger article 50. the entire service is running around try to figure out what is it that we actually wants, what are the menus that we can offer the next prime minister to take to brussels that she can choose from as part of the negotiating plan.
they're in mind, the really was june,n, since the 23rd of before then there was no plan. stuff they need to sort out. ,heresa may said earlier today certainly last week, there was no plans to trigger article 50. even though today does accelerate things by two months, it's probable that she will still stick to that and say no indication of article 50 this year. vonnie: any names we should take account of in terms of who the main cabinet positions might be? john: the big question is who will be chancellor of a checker -- of exchequer? been putting himself out there pretty prominently in terms of putting together a plan for the u.k. economy. he is another name in the hat. our reportersng,
have been reaching out to them all day long. they didn't really expect this to happen. possibly she hasn't thought that much about what cabinet she was to put together. one, andellor is a big that will be the debate over the next two or three days. -- fraher,n for our thank you. we have charles michel joining us. business change anything in terms of whether triggering article 50 will happen or no in the next several months? the previous speaker just said, theresa may has committed to wait till the beginning of 2017 to trigger article 50. the fact that all of this is happening two months early, the fact that there's not going to be a conservative leadership race and that she is already going to be prime minister on wednesday could potentially accelerate that agenda. it would be a way of reconciling her timetable with the timetable of the europeans. most european leaders have said
they want article 50 triggered quickly, they don't want this uncertainty keeping them from taking care of other obvious problems for too long. it may be a way of finding a win-win situation. as john said, the civil service isn't ready and they are still put the other options as far as brexit is concerned. meanwhile, charles, it's a funny situation. on the opposition side, jeremy corbyn and angela eagle can't get their act together to mount any kind of an opposition. what could happen to labor? john: labor is facing a difficult situation. every day in with mr., different surprises are happening. we did expect angela eagle to challenge jeremy corbyn. this event came as a surprise this morning. labor faces a very difficult situation as an only to do with jeremy corbyn's unelected official, but they've lost a lot of seats in scotland, it's
difficult to imagine them winning a majority in any situation. the accidental crisis for labor goes on. stability it comes to , political stability. today has to be good news. we don't have to go through nine weeks of the battle and we have a prime minister by wednesday night. taking the box for political stability is certainly done. john: it's a step in the right direction. i think most people rather letson'sbout experience and whether she could be a credible negotiator as we attempt to unravel 40 years of membership in the european union. it didn't really seem that she was up to it. this has been welcomed as something very positive. you saw sterling go up, it's been welcomed as a positive step. there's a lot of questions about how we leave the european union, there are many questions that haven't been decided. mark: one of the interest in questions is that she was in the remain camp.
hold thatxiteers against her? even though she said brexit means brexit. john: potentially, it could be a problem. for the moment, she has been clear that brexit means brexit, but she will remove or extricate the u.k. from the european union. you can imagine a situation where those who campaigned to leave within that party thinks the deal she brings back isn't enough of a brexit, it is some sort et al. version instead of a full english -- a full english brexit. that could be a problem for her and her legitimacy in the party. if people remind her later on that she was a remainder after all, and she is in really negotiate for a full brexit, it could be a problem. for the moment, i think the party is behind her. vonnie: she has promised to have secretary of state, that was never promises.
her goal, according to what i have been reading is a norwegian plus, you get the good parts of the trade deals, particularly with europe, but restriction on labor and labor movements and immigration. negotiating will britain have to do to get that kind of a deal? it seems to sweet to be true. john: you outlined a deal that sounds perfect from a british perspective. the question is whether the europeans will be able to offer it. as far as we can tell, they aren't. a moral habitvide where other countries that aren't particular happy and have parties that are critical of the european union would suddenly start to want to emulate what has been given to britain. all of that with the benefits of access to the market and slightly less influence, but most of us don't notice that. of migration.ment
>> we look forward to working with whoever is coming out of the democratic process, and we will have to find solutions for the brexit, which has been causing a lot of problems particular for the u.k., but also for europe. vonnie: ryan joins us from brussels. italian stocks are lagging the rest of europe today, the market is not buying any confidence boosting chatter from any of the bankers. ryan: you would think that based on all the volatility in the market and the way the journalists were asking their questions here that recapitalization of italian banks would be something that would be discussed for a great deal of time. caught up with italy's finance minister who said it's not on the agenda at all. have a listen. >> i'm surprised not by the share prices, we live in times of volatility and have been for months now, including after
brexit. i'm surprised by the fact that the whole news operators think that there is something on the agenda on the euro group in equity and banks. this is not the case. there is nothing on the agenda of euro group on banks today and tomorrow. there's a sense here, and you may have gotten this already -- we heard this from the president of the euro group, that while the situation in italy is not good, and that there is a banking crisis brewing, it hasn't reached the point where at least here in brussels, they feel the need to act on it just yet. they're really hoping that the italians can take care of their problems on their own. ryan, thank you. ryan chilcote in brussels. nine minutes left in today's session, what a two weeks it has been. much more ahead here on "bloomberg markets." this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: live from london and new york, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets," on bloomberg television. vonnie: it's time for a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. burberry made a decision, the two-year experiment of combining of ceo and creative chief was a failure. the british luxury goods company named a new chief executive. he replaces crisper bailey, who is staying on as creative head. up to of nintendo rose 25% in tokyo. go company's new pokémon game rose to the top of rankings. it allows players to track down virtual locations using their phones. has been sold for about
$4 billion. in buyer is a group hollywood. they bought usc in 2001 for $2 million. businessur bloomberg flash for this hour. let's take a look at the markets and start with u.s. majors. you can see the dow is up more 500 at 2139, s&p .4% or nine points. it's above its record closing high. the nasdaq of about .7%. in fact, the intraday high as well has been beaten in today so far. you can see some calm in the markets, the fix is below 14 is downin, -- the vix below 14 once again. the yen rallying as well, 102.63.t it saw
after japan showed support for premise or all day and his stimulus packages will probably continue. the market will give him more time to carry out reforms. for the spread in the u.s., the curve flattened and continues. mark: european equities, we're five minutes away from the end of the monday session. markets receiving a boost from the news that theresa may will be the next prime minister. wednesday night, we have a timeline in place. there is some political certainty, finally, after two weeks of uncertainty in the u.k.. this is bloomberg. ♪
consecutive day. every dust group rising today, led by basic resources up to 4.2%. still 20% below the record. april 15, 2015 as the s&p 500 reaches new highs today. look at the 5500. -- the ftseie 500. this is a bull market for the footsie -- what a change in fortunes from february to march where there was an outcome from the referendum. the reason why we have seen such a rally is this industry group. minors and commodities.
it says the impact of brexit will fade. global growth chugs along. investments will put more cash into funds. damageconomists see the to global growth to be limited while stronger growth from china and the u.s. should lift global growth for the rest of the year. this is how the big minors a ers -- bigg minor miners fared. let's finish with sterling on yet another incredible day here in the u k, in the arena of politics. right there was where we started hearing when andrea leadsom will drop out. she gave her speech. theresa may will be the next prime minister.
we now have a timeline. wednesday night, theresa may will become prime minister and sterling rising against the dollar after hitting a new 31 year low earlier in the day. what a week. alex: i can't seem to keep a lid on the s&p 500. it is 10 points above. it is a 2140 in change, half a percent. the dow up 6/10 of a percent at this point, 8000 to 61. , and the movers will go to midtown manhattan. >> what a different two weeks makes, funny. .-- vonnie now, the nasdaq is nearly even on the year. the nasdaq is higher, four days in a row.
the nasdaq is not near its record high, is this a signal of divergence to sell the s&p 500 or is there catch up potential for the nasdaq. i reached out to the chief technical officer at mk am holdings and he is in the latter camp. we take a long-term look at the nasdaq, this is the 2000 feet -- 2000 peak through the last decade. this consolidation could be a pause before a breakout higher. holdings -- mkm holdings thinks of catch up potential. katie stockton has a different view. she says it is a reason to not assume the markets are free and clear of resistance.
that growth could lead, the international markets have lagged and this could be a disadvantage technically. vonnie: let's check in with bloomberg first word news. courtney collins has more. >> the u.k. will have a new prime minister by wednesday night. david cameron says he is stepping down. >> tomorrow i will share my last cabinet meeting. i will answer questions and after that, i expect to go to the palace and offer my resignation. we will have an new prime minister by wednesday evening. >> the next prime minister will be home secretary theresa may. leadsoml, andrea withdrew from the race. may will be the second female prime minister. challengede has
jeremy corbyn for the leadership of the labour party. corbyn lost a no-confidence vote but has refused calls to resign. china,ral and southern weeks of rain have caused the country's worst flooding in almost two decades. people have been killed, farmland has been ruined and transportation has been disrupted. the problem has been made worse by the arrival of a typhoon. in sports, justin spieth is the thest golfer to bow out of real olympics. alle other top golfers withdrew because of concerns about the zika virus. this is the first time golf has been in the olympics in 112 years. news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries.
this is bloomberg. aberdeen --ceo of in the wake of the brexit vote -- says there is interest in british real estate. here is martin gilbert speaking exclusively earlier this morning. >> on monday last week we saw a redemptions almost at zero, on our three and a half billion funds so we thought the worst was over. and then the surprise news came out in the afternoon that one of the funds was gating and that of .ourse caused the panic selling you can understand, people taking money out of a property 20% and investing in a discount, so it is quite a good arbitrage really. one of our obligations was to provide liquidity to our holders
and we got it valuations done by our value are. a bit like if you are trying to sell your house in five days, what discount would you have to take on your own property. they came back at 25% which is what we applied. people on liquidity were prepared to give liquidity but we are giving them time to rethink. we had a lot of withdraws that withdrawals. on that.s an idea they wanted to redeem. this flow of redemption requests you saw last week, did it week? -- did it peak? >> it be done wednesday, about -- it peaked on wednesday. fun so 25% cash in our we had 75 million pounds in
cash. we thought there was a chance of brexit. we thought property was quite high. we had been selling property for some time. i would suspect about two thirds of that 150 world -- would withdraw their applications because we have to treat customers fairly. that is the overriding concern. >> about treating customers fairly in terms of the regulators, for commercial property funds, let's get idea of your 2007-2000 a property which fell down. this is going to cause commercial property assets to be sold. how much will assets drop by? can it touch the 2008 levels? >> i can think so. we are in a very different environment. there was no liquidity in the
market. the world is awash with liquidity at the moment. with the pound depreciating we are seeing a huge institutional interest in you cap property. what i expect is going to happen is the retail investors selling near the bottom and the institutional investor from abroad taking advantage of the currency and lower prices. >> so we are not seeing international investors pulling out. we have international investors waiting to get in. >> we are getting calls from all over the world. would you like to sell us our assets? we are taking a cautious view. we still have 500 million pounds of liquidity. to open todayis as long as investors have enough time to make a decision. mark: martin gilbert there
earlier. after that interview, aberdeen appointed a broker to sell a london office property suspended from trading according to three people familiar with the matter. the asset manager will often offer 100 million pounds and also, aberdeen extended the freeze. earnings, analysts estimating quarterly profits at the largest u.s. banks will be lower after the brexit vote andh stoked volatility derailed expectations the fed would continue raising interest rates. joining us now, michael moore who covers financials. how much investments been cut? >> they have been cut consistentlydouble digits.
banks have been hoping for interest rates to turn around after the fed finally raised rates. they thought that might continue geopolitical events we have seen, brexit included, that is looking less likely. mark: long-term projections have to take breaks into account as well. it is going way out into the distance. >> and then you are seeing that in europe as well with rates estimated to stay lower for longer. of help thekind banks in the first couple years after the crisis get their footing, but it has been a steady drag and the u.s. has done a little bit better than europe but that interest -- net interest margins. vonnie: from the actual stock price point of view, or any of those ratios, the u.s. is far
and away above and beyond the likes of deutsche bank and the the europeanand banks experiencing difficulties. where does it end? >> the contrast there is down to a few things. the profitability outlook for the u.s. banks is a little bit better because they have fewer of the credit risks. is atment banking activity little more active in the u.s. or at least has been. you have a better profitability picture and you have fewer questions because the u.s. banks have gone through so many years because they test built up these capital buffers. whereas few questions the european sites are still talking about potential bailouts and capital questions at lenders at deutsche bank. ony are really contrasting that front but they do face a
lot of the same issues, whether it is on race -- rates or the trading environment. vonnie: will analysts be interested in whether these banks with british subsidiaries will be moving those units to other parts of europe? think you will hear questions about that on the calls, but a lot of the banks have taken a weight and see approach -- wait and see approach. passport and rights they are able to keep, if they keep past porting -- full past porting -- would be a tough thing to negotiate but they would probably not have to move many people so there is a lot in it all depends on when that article 50 is triggered. mark: many of the investment banks -- like slashing cost -- history repeats itself.
>> you could say that but analysts are making more of those cost cuts because we have seen the ability from the bank to cut the cost. you have to go even further to beat expectations once again. at some point the banks run out of room on the cost-cutting and they have to be on the revenue side. mark: thanks for joining us, the earnings season kicking off. bloomberg's michael moore in london. battle of the charts is next. funny and matt miller are going face-to-face. can't wait. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: time for our global battle of the charts. we will take a look at some of the most telling charts of the day, what they mean. you can access these on bloomberg by running the function featured at the autumn of your screen. matt miller, take it away. to show is that even though we have an all-new high today, earnings are slumping. -- tiedn the midst of for the longest burning slump in history here, five quarters in a row of eps falling. i have to know to the turnaround. we had earnings climbing through 13 and 14 and falling through 15 and 16. you can see this blue line comes down every quarter. 500he meantime, the s&p which has plateaued in 2005 and hadn't made a new high in 286 days, that is the longest streak of no new high since 1961.
it finally has broken through. it is not supported at all by the earnings. the reason we have these gains is the market expects to continue to lose monetary policy from the fed and other central banks around the world. 2005 to access this chart. vonnie: apparently i have already lost because matt miller -- apparently using the i haveion is sloppy, so nothing new to do. by puttguggested things in perspective and back in may of 2016 -- 2015, when we had the s&p at this level, you also saw the dax around similar levels and the euro bank index. travel along and of course this
year, they are mirroring each other and now you have the s&p, a record. the banking index all the way down here. that is dragging down the dax partially. they are german banks in the dax. but of course to do with the brexit vote and the fact that german exporters might not be too pleased. so there you have it. mark: you can find your chart at -- 04 mark:.btb2 the standards are high now. if you don't annotate your chart you get docked a point. if you had annotated it would be difficult. but matthew miller is the winner. topical on the news.
-- wearing nike gear. joining us now, sports reporter. the blow to its ego. not having the local -- not having the adidas global -- logo. >> the companies -- adidas has been this institutional partner from back in the 70's, so it has been with you a four all of the institutions. in the 90's are now going head-to-head. mark: it is lucky that one of their teams wasn't in the finals. >> exactly. you take your pick and obviously germany -- adidas was in germany for 60 odd years.
mark: they have had a good run. >> everybody thought germany was the team to beat but it has been such a strange euro. vonnie: not this year. peoples shopping habits? youngsters it making change from buying nike? >> it depends. people can be sort of fair weather supporters when it is not your country. cup isteam that wins the wearing nike, you will probably going where that. and --ld see a few files if you thousand portugal shares around. in markets like asia and the u.s., they are new markets to soccer and people are finding a team to support. >> is it looking for the up-and-coming athletes?
the under armour approach? or were they just unlucky this year? >> i think they were unlucky. only two years ago, germany went a brazil, absolutely battered nike sponsored home nation. brazilians were weeping and germany won the final. mark: they just back it up, don't they? >> this is going to be a adidas's best year. i just think it is a little bit embarrassing that the ceos might be exchanging text messages. mark: for the portugal one they were third in that group. does it show the wonderfulness of the tournaments or the flaws of it? >> i think this tournament got the final it deserved.
it was a bit of a bore. this is the longest euro in history. it is as long as the world cup. we have some really good stories. iceland, wales, northern ireland doing what they were doing. but in terms of quality of football, -- >> england's quality of football was wonderful. >> there were a few tears shed when the endless went home. 4:50 six in london, that is it for the european close on bloomberg markets. we continue with bloomberg markets. scarlet is in london. looking forward to watching her show next. ♪
>> from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. >> we are covering stories from london to beijing and tokyo this hour. here is what we are watching. the latest twist in u.k. molitics, andrea leadso dropping out. the only question now is when. >> it is monday, so don't miss our deals report. how the fallout from the brexit vote and the u.s. presidential election could impact deal activity. >> shares of nintendo surging following the release of its new game, "pokemon go." >>