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tv   Trending Business  Bloomberg  July 11, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm EDT

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angie: it is tuesday, the 12th of july. i am angie lau and this is trending business. we are going to be life for you in tokyo and beijing at this hour. first, here is what we are watching this evening. the rally rolls on in asia with docs surging into one-month highs. after the s&p 500 closed at a record. investors increasingly confident that monetary policy will stay reserved for longer. deputies equities are leading the way up more than 6% this
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week. abe is getting ready to roll out the stimulus. the valparaiso may hear, set to teresa-- we have got may here. you can let us what you know of today's top stories by following me on twitter. don't forget to include the #trending business. the china and hong kong markets abouttting underway in 30 minutes time. singapore and malaysia just came online. look at what is happening this morning. lot riding on premise or operate in japan today. the nikkei 225 up through 3.2%. you got this expectation that there will be more announced.
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we do have to remember back in april when the boj unexpectedly refrained, we saw that big -- coming through. investors buying the rumor. looking at taiwan, it has come online, up by 0.1%. 0.2%, flatline and malaysia. weaken seen the won against the dollar. the u.s. hit that record high overnight, seeing gains of 0.4% in korea. in australia, we are seeing some good moves. if we can get that up on the joint, alumina has a venture with alco. it is up by 2.3%.
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wellw alco shares do very as well, following that result, looking like broad-based gains coming up in australia and new zealand up by 0.3%. japan movingin higher. oil and gas up by 2.3% even as we have seen that oil price hit those two-month lows. technology stocks also late in the game, basic materials out by a must for percent there. i want to show you the yen. we are seeing a little bit of strength coming back in the yen, biggest plunge since october 2014, a little bit of weakness coming through. it was stronger earlier this morning. 1%. are -- down by 2/10 of getting closer to that 103 handle there. we have data coming through at
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the bottom of the hour out of australia. taken over before the election was finalized, could see a bit of downward pressure coming through their due to political uncertainty in australia. dollar up 0.2%. angie: it is really happening after the minister shinzo abe planned extra fiscal stimulus. how big is it going to be? that is the question we take to bloomberg news, james from tokyo. what can we expect? there is going to be some, fiscal stimulus. he is not given the details on the size of the package. when of his advisers told us last week that the government a stimulus package,
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the same number as the leading abe's own. andin if you look at the budget on how much money they have left over, there is only 2 million, ¥3 trillion what that means is that you do any serious stimulus, any kind of extra spending, you're going to have to issue extra revenue bonds. abe mention they would bring forward the construction of the train line to hokkaido, but he is not given details on what the money will be spent on from that. angie: is this really pressure on her hugo kuroda and the bank of japan? mean for monetary policy? james: the yen was very strong. it wast until yesterday,
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quite strong. that was one of the reasons people were saying the bank of japan would be forced to ease, because the yen had strengthened to that point. with the yen weakening, it may be relieving pressure on the boj at the end of the month. inflation is still low. in actual fact, their prices are falling now. while the pressure from the strengthening yen may have bank ofed for the japan, there's so the real economy with deflation and also with lackluster growth. it is still making the case that the boj should ease more and there is still a lot of expectation the boj is going to add to their stimulus to try and assist the economy. to be enough?oing i mean, look at the japanese economy right now. it is still in a funk. james: that is true. a lot of people were saying that
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there were marginal dancer many increase in bonds, for example, is diminishing. the if the boj does more, effect is not going to be the same as it was in october 2014 or march 2013. i guess the real question is, there are two questions. will the boj do anything? is it really going to have the effect they are looking for? that is what the bank of japan would be considering for the end of the month. governor kuroda and preminger imee --primus abbe -- pr minister abe. he followed the japanese economy quite closely. ago about what the boj should be doing. i think that discussion will be very interesting. angie: central banker emeritus. thank you so much for that. it will be interesting to see
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what he has to say. the forecast on the chinese yuan, a drop. we have david looking at that press. david: we do know that the slide in the yuan has already begun. this is a 12 month look at the drop and the pair. they are flipping that around. this is our synthetic replica. we are basically down 7%. if you look at that spot rate, we are down over 9%. that being said, where do we go from here? a lot of the forecasts that of come through since brexit have basically been revised lower. we are seeing more yuan witnesses being priced in or expected at the very least. let me show you how that looks if i can get my chart appear. give me a few moments. this does take time. here we go. spot rates, the forecast here. i agree minor break here, you
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can see were brexit is at the moment. 66960. 670 at the moment. the light blue line is the forecast across 68 strategists, analysts. you take the median and this is where they think the yuan will be at the end of this year at $6.73. ofre looking at a range here 7.20. at $ that takes us back all the way here to levels last seen in 2011, if i am not mistaken. are payingporate back a lot of their foreign debt on expectations that this exercise to fall. have a look at this quote here america,bank of
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basically saying that corporate they're paying back at the moment because they are expecting the dollar to go up and rates to go up in the u.s.. a they are, by the way. some point, something has to give. it is going to be the currency. very quickly, 7.6 to the dollar. let us right now take a look at some of the other stories we are watching for you today. rosalind with the roundup. now, she is a presumptive leader. she is expected to take over by wednesday night in britain. the current leader, david cameron said he will visit the queen on wednesday to resign.
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she needs to build her team and super quicktime and her responsibilities will include steering the country out of the european union. casering this campaign, my has been based on three things. first, the need for strong, proven leadership. to steer us through what will be difficult and uncertain political times. the need to negotiate the best deals for britain in leaving the eu and afford a new role for ourselves in the new world. brexit means brexit, and we are going to make a success of it. nintendo shares are rising for a fourth session. they are up 2.6%. in tokyo, they jumped to 7% at the open. the release of the pokemon go out in the u.s., really a, and new zealand.
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-- australia, and new zealand. within days of the caps off release, more people in the u.s. were playing pokemon go than using social media apps. nintendo has a stake in the game's developer the -- niantic. in a speech, the imf deputy managing director said that the outcome of china's economic rebalancing is one of the most important risks facing the global economy. he said the risk of spill over from the rising debt held by , but a company is "acute manageable problem is handled quickly." angie. we are to take a look at why toyota is facing an uber backlash in japan. coming up, find out what td ameritrade field investors may be getting to completion in
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equities. this is bloomberg. -- completion in equities. this is bloomberg. ♪
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angie: the latest first word headlines. the bank of england governor is planning to address parliament and oversee the first interest rate decision since you k's vote to leave the eu. about as are pricing in rate cut on thursday. business sentiment plummeting, the pound near a 31 year low. new jersey governor chris christie has hit the campaign trail with donald trump in the swing state of virginia. as a leadingeen candidate to become tod's running mate, presumptive economic he said he is going to announce his right presidential pick in the next few days. andana governor mike pence, former house speaker newt
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gingrich, are expected to be on the short list along with retired army general michael t flynn. the chinese government says flooding in central and southern regions is the worst in 18 years. interventional rain has raised river levels before the remnants of typhoon which struck on the weekend. flooding killed 173 people, affected 31 million across 12 provinces, submerged 2.7 million hectares of cropland and caused $10 billion in damage. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. the daily fixing is in on the chinese yuan. that is get it to david for the update. david. david: i am right behind you, angie. [laughter] david: let's change the camera and look at me.
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yesterday, 66843. it is a little bit weaker. very quickly, i'm not sure how clearly you can see this. this is the movement we are seeing in the offshore. flat at the moment. we are a little bit below it at the 670 level. many put this into context again and have a look at a one-month chart. it has aptly been weakening the last six weeks or so. as a mentioned a few weeks ago, i was talking about how a lot of these forecasts since the brexit vote have actually been revised lower. i will give you a range between to 7.2.even -- 6.7 i've seen a lot of these forecasts basically saying that at some point by the end of this year, mid next year, we will be at seven or beyond on the remedy. angie: u.s. stocks rose to an all-time high on growth optimism
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and stimulus bets. my guest things the volatility index shows less concern for risk. investors may be getting too complacent in equity markets. eo of td ameritrade asia. we got a sense of that with the rally event extended globally right here in asia, back to levels pre-brexit, but everyone knows that perhaps this is a temporary reprieve. you still got to take the profit now when you can get it. sure, angie. i think so. good morning. look, last week you saw the 10%, and i think investors are getting a little bit complacent on the u.s. side. however, as u.s. equities continue to make all-time highs and treasuries make all-time lows, it is basically the best place for them to put their money.
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as they are chasing yield or value, the u.s. equities seems to be relatively, at relative strength right now as well as the market in the u.s.. angie: we have got earnings coming out. just based on the past performance of u.s. equities over the past couple of quarters, don't you think that perhaps we could see some upside here in this quarter? definitely. look, as i have talked to other people about this, the last couple quarters, their earnings, expectations were not all that inflated. the earnings definitely has a chance, if it beats to the upside because of the downward revisions we have been given. we have a few different factors coming into play. it's going to help with market clarity, and markets always liked clarity. i say it all the time. we have theresa may being put in place in the u k. it gives a little more
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stability from britain. we have the earnings season kicked off this morning. we are going to have some bank earnings coming out later this week. that is going to hopefully give us a little more clarity because i think you are going to see some downward revisions on the bank earnings, revenues going forward, because of the low interest rate environment we have been in for this period of time. definitely some things to look out for. we absolutely could see an upside to this earnings season. angie: absolutely, financial getting kicked with the low interest rate environment. that looks like it is going to be low for some time. christopher: yes. i mean, look, if you look at the meet your later this month, the likelihood that they raise rates is becoming less and less a likelihood. i was firmly in the camp that they were going to raise rates to more times in 2016, but after -- thisrised mexico,
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surprise brexit vote, the likelihood that they raise interest rates 25 basis points to more times in 2016 seems very unlikely. you still have some analysts coming out and saying that there is a possibility they will raise rates to more times in 2016, however, if you look at the fed funds futures market, and what traders are betting on, essentially december is only showing a slightly over 20% chance that they raise interest rates only one time for the remainder of 2016. so, just wanting a kind of want to point out. if you go back to the horrible lookobs report, and no you at the great jobs report here in june, janet yellen came out after the may jobs report and said, look, don't take all credence into one job report. the june jobs report comes out last week, and everybody forgot about may. do not put all your credence just into one jobs report. we have to have some type of
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follow-through and gets more stability and till the fed actually has some type of ammunition and order to raise rates going forward. angie: look, i just want to point out that divergent view here. andrally hits s&p high, then we got bond yields plummeting. what gives here? gold we have got continuing to give. gold continuing to rise. something has got to give. christopher: all-time is on the money market. right now, -- all-time lows on the bond market. they are taking a more risk on approach or state haven approach to gold. picks in gold stock the gold sector. and the treasuries
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equity side of things, it is basically the best place that people are looking for for valley. -- for value. we have this big economic stimulus going to possibly come out in japan. all of the things are going to factor into that plan. angie: problem is, that places -- a rock andnd a a hard one. trending business, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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angie: china's net advertising rules may weigh on alibaba's earnings. beijing has decided to impose extra reg elation. -- extra regulation. >> basically exempt this business tax. angie: what does the new tax cover? pay-for-performance, where
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they pay to improve their search rankings on things like baidu's search engine door alibaba's search results. angie: this is the second time the government has imposed stricter regulations on them. >> it has had a pretty bad run ever since the death of the 21-year-old in china. he looked up the providers on baidu and unfortunately, the advertisers he went with were unable to cure his cancer. at least one health care regulatory investigation could hit on its earnings. angie: what impact does this have on the bottom line? >> they reckon it will cut profit in fiscal 2017 by 10% their forecast. it is going to be below what analysts are currently expecting. angie: definitely a lot of pressure on the companies. thank you, david. coming up next, territorial
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tensions may ramp up later today over the south china sea. we are going to be live in beijing. next, this is bloomberg. ♪ get ready for the rio olympic games
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angie: top stories trending this hour -- asian stocks are searching for a second day after the s&p 500 posted a record high. investors like the prospects of policies remaining loser for longer following signs of strength in the u.s.. sincen fell the most 2014. prime minister shinzo abe will reduce fiscal stimulus. in talks with
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other partners to buy $2 billion from blackstone. vanke will chip in $582 million. it did not identify the partners it is working with, saying only that they're not related parties. theresa may seceding david cameron as uk prime minister on wednesday, taking on the task of clearing the country out of the european union. only challenger for the office dropped out of the contest. will cameron says he resign on wednesday. news out ofking australia. for that we go to juliettle. e.
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juliette: we have survey results that have come through which are quite solid. business confidence rose by six in june. business conditions rose by two points. this was driven by a lift in conditions which are up against long-run average levels. probability likely increasing. there is confidence improving in the businesses in australia. this survey was taken while we have the uncertainty over the brexit vote and before there was a clear winner in the australian election. we have not seen much movement coming through from the aussie dollar, although it is holding at 75.49. there is confidence improving in australia in the month of june. we have hong kong and china coming online. the hang seng up by less than 1%.
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chinese stocks listed in hong kong on the hang seng china enterprises index at a seven-week high yesterday. the sands casino is doing well. galaxy entertainment is looking quite strong even though we had seen the pullback in crude. the shanghai composite is pretty flat, not much movement. a couple of stocks in the open. taking a look at the solid moves we have seen in the nikkei. taking its gains in the week in the two days of trading to about 7%. a lot of pressure and hope that prime minister abe will come through with a bold economic stimulus plan. that has sent some very solid movement coming through into japanese equities. the region as a whole looking strong, taking back over from wall street. angie: thank you. tensions in the south china sea could ramp it up when a
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tribunal gives its ruling on a dispute between china and the philippines. we have tom mackenzie taking a look for us. just how significant to this ruling be for this region? come from aing will rather obscure arbitration panel, but this is going to be of great significance. they could really change the dynamics of the dispute in the south china sea. we have seen a flavor of this, perhaps a flurry from the u.s. and china leading up to this. the chinese saying they have 60 nations encouraging their claim. they have put up a lot of pressure in the state media to drive home their campaign. we saw military exercises by china over the weekend. how they react will be crucial. what went into this dispute and why it is so controversial, take a watch.
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regional friction over territorial disputes in the south china sea has been ramping up months. this will likely put fuel on the flames. the philippines launched the case in 2013 in a challenge to beijing's claim of what that 80% of the south china sea. the u.s. says under president xi, equipping some with sports and runways. the the philippines acted after they seized the shole. it has unnerved neighbors including malaysia and vietnam which have competing claims to this stretch of water. $5 trillion worth of trade passes through the south china sea every year. it is home to rich stocks of fish and significant oil and gas reserves. beijing says it has a pistol work right to islands in the area of the sea spanning almost 1800 kilometers.
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back,s. has been pushing sending warships and planes close to some of the reefs in what it calls freedom of navigation operations. that infuriated china which responded by dispatching fighters and ships to ward off the u.s. navy. the panel is expected to rule in favor of the philippines. beijing says it will ignore the results. how each side response could affect the future stability. at 5 p.m.s will be beijing time. it is a test for the chinese an assertive has stance on the south china sea. it is also a test for washington on how they respond to any action by beijing. analysts see different responses the chinese could make. it could be a strongly worded sentiment, playing to the
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nationalism, but on the ground, ease back on some of the tensions. 80 pulling back some of its patrols -- may be pulling back some of its patrols. that is one end of the spectrum. the other end, beijing could have a much stronger stance. it could ramp up patrols in the region. 9-line.d codify this you could also put into place an air defense identification zone which could cause of issues for the u.s. the u.s. response will be very interesting as well. how they will carry out their freedom of navigation exercises to drive home to the chinese that they see these as international waters. then, we have the role of the philippines. president wants a slightly closer relationship with china. how he works the philippine response.
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then, vietnam has a claim to the south china sea and may put its own case over towards this panel. there are a lot of moving parts. , they are bound by international law to abide by the ruling. china has said it will not do it. what kind of enforcement action can we expect, if any, from the international community? tom: that is right. china has said it does not see the panel having any jurisdiction. ever since the case was launched in 2013. the decision cannot be enforced by the panel, by the united nations, but it can damage china's international relations. you can possibly strengthen calls in the region for china to step back. it could solidify any
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partnership in the region when it comes to confronting china on this. of course, the u.s. response. freedom ofease its navigation exercises to try to drive home these waterways have $5 trillion of trade every year should remain open. the response from beijing and washington will be absolutely crucial. angie: china growing military power and the world's second-largest economy. it will be very interesting to watch how this plays out today. thank you for that, tom mckenzie. well, over to the u.k. right now where home secretary theresa may is set to take over as prime minister as soon as wednesday, after her arrival went out of the race. we have rosalind chin taking a
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look at what the social media has to say. rosalind: finally, some signs of stability. having the next prime minister in place will help smooth stability. there are always people's comments who can stir things up. one is this person on twitter saying, he was running scared after 2007. what they are referring to is back in 2007 when gordon took over from tony blair, there was no election. he was given the place in the transition. it was criticized and called for an election. we are seeing plenty of posts on --ial media saying she had
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bringing up a quote from the past -- no mandate to rule the country. there are pictures like this making the rounds on twitter. similar ones bringing back theresa may's work. she is effectively going to do the same thing. she will take over from david cameron without an election. the s postponing election. labour and liberal democrats want it held earlier than this. with all the other things going on, including having to steer the country at of the european union, that is on tap. angie: such a long time away. what about david cameron? : david cameron saying he will resign on wednesday. things that social
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media has picked up on is after his address, he headed back inside. just as the door closed, we heard him singing. as the door closed, saying right. this was picked up by a lot of social media. people saying he is relieved to be finally handing over the reins. love him or lose him, lease we can all remember cameron's last word as pm. some light relief from david cameron before he steps down as prime minister. angie: i guess it is somebody else's headache. ros, thank you so much for that. checking in on some other stories we are following for you. gained in shares after it exceeded estimates. the jet park exceeded. it was $.15 a share and beating the average predicted by
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bloomberg analysts. 9 to $5.3l from 5.9 billion. the company will split into in the next couple of years. executiveank of japan director says they will need to reduce the pace of its debt purchases as its approaching the limits of the bond market. the central bank is aware of this. based on commonsense, they should reduce the pace of bond buying. the governor said he would expand stimulus if needed to reach the 2% inflation target. imposed a partial hiring increase at its wealth management business to cut costs. restrictions apply only to support functions and exclude client advisors in the brokerage is this in the u.s. and canada. the ceo is trying to reduce expenses.
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coming up next, an increasing number of airlines choosing to have free printouts, one leader is seeing if they can hold onto its dominant position. this is bloomberg. ♪
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angie: you are watching trending business. i'm angie lau from hong kong. a quick check on the main news from the world of aviation. boeing and airbus are locked in battle to supply spicejet with as many as 100 planes. it is worth about $12 million. it would be key for boeing that is lagging behind airbus in the indian market. it is trying to compete against indiego.
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sources tell us that airbus is poised to win the order in as many as 100 jetliners from air asia. people familiar with the matter says the deal will be announced today which can be worth up to $12.5 billion. it would likely consist of the deal. boeing and airbus getting a boost of another company. kicking off the action at the air show on monday with a deal for 30 boeing 737's. go airline india is looking to buy 78 at $7.5 billion. as you can see, aircraft leasings has been growing in popularity. increased competition and now brexit perhaps clouding the outlook. let's bring in our next guest. flattery. ceo donnell
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welcome to our studios today. if we take a look at it, it seems the appetite is robust. we know it is slowing down. guest: people coming into the show this year, it is interesting to hear an order coming from tony this morning. it is not surprising. airasia is growing really well. they had a difficult number of years, but their joint venture strategies and different countries is paying off. the world of aviation, you have parts of the world doing really well and's parts of the world that are plateauing. angie: ryan air is saying we don't know what the plan will be after brexit. domhnal: i have known michael for 25 years. he runs the most successful airline in the world.
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more cash liquidity than most banks. angie: no question that brexit is affecting it. domhnal: my take is a little different than what other people are thinking. it is driven on the basic principles. the u.k. is on sale. the sterling is 1% cheaper. my friend has been aggressively buying wine in the past two weeks. he says it is 10% cheaper than three weeks ago. if you want to travel the u.k., it is cheap to go. angie: people flying out of the u.k., that means their pound is also having less purchasing power. they may not decide to go abroad and travel. domhnal: sure, but if you think about the flows of the world, more people go into the u.k. then out of the u.k. the u.k., london is going to be a huge destination for asian based tourists. our own shareholders are making
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huge investments throughout europe and the u.k. planning for this. angie: specifically looking at an uptrend. domhnal: it is just a realization that europe, u.k. has very interesting prospects to offer in the broader market. over the next 12 to 24 months, we will see a convergence back into the currency. i think it is more opportunity. angie: how is the u.s. doing? domhnal: the u.s. is tipping along. the u.s. has come out of the crisis basically delivering 2%. i think the world market has gotten used to us. the u.s. airlines are sitting on very significant liquidity. i think the challenge in the u.s. is to keep it steady, eddie. the world with the most challenges south america, brazil in particular. argentina which was a basket case has turned the corner in the last 12 months. angie: that is a little bit
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challenging. domhnal: brazil is such a huge economy. there was often it being called the country of tomorrow and it always will be. it is a very cyclical market. the economy is so large. angie: let's bring it back home because when you take a look at china, this space is exciting. what are chinese airlines doing? we are hearing from air asia. they are buying. what is the strategy for airlines? domhnal: china is probably, in the next 20 years, the biggest aviation market in the world. today, it is the biggest aviation market in the world. chinese airlines are growing at a significant clip. parent company is the fourth-largest airline in china. the prospects for chinese aviation are explosive. they are significantly under ordered in aircraft demand for
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the next 10 years. how do they finance the aircraft ? they lease them to airlines like us. most chinese airlines have a nice balance. angie: you recently bought 45 gcus.ft from why buy secondhand? domhnal: we are quite nimble in the way we approach the market. we buy directly from the manufacturers. the second is we lease back to the airlines to provide financing. when we see value and opportunistic value, we will buy in scale. it is one of the three channels. it is basically putting the foot on the gas at different points of the cycle where we see an opportunity to deliver good returns to our shareholders. angie: boeing, airbus arnett that ---- are now in ma ineck and neck. is it long-haul, the medium-range hauls?
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in asia, seven hour flights to tokyo and singapore. there are not the planes that exist to help that out. domhnal: you have a structural shift. termsg super aircraft in of size and at the end of their questionshe 747, over the 380. we have airplanes like the a-350 which are designed and fit for purpose. boeing is looking at developing newer planes in the midmarket. no doubt they will design these airplanes. it is for these new city pairings. in five or 10 years, 30 or 40 new city pairs that do not exist today. angie: it will be interesting to see what those could be. we will leave it there. it is very good to welcome you here. coming up next, toyota's latest
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tie up gets backlash from chinese taxi drivers. we will be live from tokyo with all the details. this is bloomberg. ♪
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is facingyou toyota backlash from japan because of uber. uber has no shortage of critics. what is the latest about? >> yes, what makes this particulartic interesting, we are talking about the federation of taxi in japan. you have 200,000 taxis nationwide, many of which are toyotas. in a very interesting war of words. it is kind of one-sided where you have the federation of japan taxi association really taking
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toyota to task for investing in uber and collaborating with the company. toyota is on the defensive. the federation spoke to toyota himself and he assured them they would not be partnering with uber in japan. it is interesting to see these close allies really kind of at odds over the fact toyota and uber are are getting together. angie: how challenging has it been for uber to get traction in japan? craig: here in tokyo, it is really difficult to find an uber available. it is a system that you are only driversaccess through that are working with taxi organizations. it is really limited. uber's usefulness in japan. angie: craig, thank you for that. coming up, brexit makes yuan the
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second-worst performer in asia. we will get more on the currency's outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> turning now to politics, hillary clinton's campaign hoped the fbi's decision not to recommend prosecutions would have closed the book on her use of a private e-mail server. it may have opened a new chapter instead. the state department has reopened its investigation and a new round of congressional


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