tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg July 19, 2016 8:00pm-9:01pm EDT
>> the global stock rally is the top while the yen slips against the dollar. the imf warns the u.k. vote will stop global growth, downgraded japan's growth as well. it is official, donald trump wednesday presidential nomination. we are live at the convention in cleveland. welcome to daybreak asia coming to you live from our asia headquarters in hong kong.
the openingaight to market in asia. david: let's get a really quick rehab -- recap of what happened overnight, not a big one. you have an overlap of constituents, but have a look at mexico and brazil. that is the emerging markets, so we had goldman joined by jpmorgan. seeing the funds will continue. the e.m. weibo continue whether it is equity or incomes. equity, goldman says in india, that is where e.m. equity managers -- manages income in both countries. let's move over to asia. four markets open at this point. when you talk about australia, of course, you were looking at a fairly large drop this morning. we are basically getting hold
back sharp and signaling some pullback in the equities market with some relations there. no major data is due today, so we are not going to be expecting , hopefully not in a bad way. fx markets, a few things to know. the dollar-yen pushing the tides overnight, little bit about that at the moment, 106-11 handles. that being said, we're not really getting a bid you would expect when it comes to japan. the aussie dollar, let's talk about this. and ite drop yesterday started this time yesterday, a little bit about that. rebound. off, 9/10ny cut that the dollar. above
nintendo, i want to talk about that. i want to share what it is doing right now. they basically doubled. 230 times earnings, imagine that. yes, let's wait for that to get underway. it might take a while. i think we have a full screen chart to show you where we are right now for nintendo. we get 5%, 10% more on this pokemon go rally in that takes nintendo's market cap above general motors. imagine that. it is not apples to apples, but, nintendo go and under bloomberg the 7974 go. yvonne: thank you. the international monetary fund says the u.k. decision to leave the eu means no increase in global growth this year. we now see the 3.2% expansion down .1% in the same as 2015. we are taking a look at the new scrappeds if they
brexit out of the picture. they actually raise the forecast for this year. >> exactly. they said the brexit created an overlay of rest on world growth and that is how they put it. 3.1% is what they want this year. looking a little bit better for next year, but that is still revised down from 3.5%. one of the things they did say was that brexit will play out over time, but it depends on maintaining confidence among investors and businesses and confidence. the forecast assumes the u.k. and that you, with the new trade deals, avoid large increases in economic barriers. the deputy director of research and his essential tech was uncertainty is the key issue. relatively benign outlook ahead with a gradual
reduction in uncertainty, and less of a hit coming from financial market volatility. having said that, uncertainty is high. >> what they call severe situation, global growth could impact 6.2% this year and we have seen for example, the u.k. falling into recession and investors and confidence fell internationally. before the brexit, the recession was not as expected. that was another factor that led to imf to think they could divide up the forecast, but now it looks like it is down. thene: they really slashed japan forecast to 3%. the yen had a lot to do with this, right? >> the yen is a key part. emphasizes it is not unhelpful. intervention is really in the way, so it helps pull out
japan's economy. what they want to do is reload the three areas of economics including fiscal policy and they said that they have seen volatility recently but not what they call disorderly moves. the imf chief economist said that the recent call for helicopter money in japan shows the need for fiscal equality. >> it is a very colorful metaphor, but i think it obscures the real problem, which is that conventional monetary policy has been bearing pretty much the entire burden of maintaining price expectations and supporting economic activity. from otherugh health government policies, for example, structural policy or fiscal policies. boj is more limited going forward in terms of what it can do to help speed up the economy. yvonne: the imf siding with the
u.s. when it comes to intervention. they kiss much. let's get to the first bloomberg news. donald is officially the republican nominee for president. the tycoon home state of new york pushed him over the line for the 1237 delegates he needed at the convention in cleveland. while his domination was almost guaranteed, if you trump protests arrested day one of the protest. the central bank should correct lies at its policymaking next week. they said the boj should add more stimulus and scrap references to unlimited policy space in achieving its 2% inflation target in two years. he says markets will lose trust in the central bank if it continues to remain bullish. a board will meet this week to discuss growing pressure for a high cash unit.
they have complained to the $1 million offer. the currency drop means shareholders are getting a sweeter deal than other investors. las is asking them to reconsider the term. global news, 20 four hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yvonne: also looking at the bhp shares headed south in early australia down to about 4% in ofney after the release mixed numbers this point. let's go to paul allen who is joining us from sydney. how come investors are not like any sort of results? , not a huge answer one, but a mixed number list, 55.6 million tons for the quarter that was missed. maintenance in
western australia is partly because for this. coproduction down 7% and for your production is off 2% to 227 million tons also missing some revised numbers. not a fantastic picture for them and probably why we are seeing the share price coming under a bit of oprah -- pressure. yvonne: with the exception for iron ore, it was a better picture for bhp? >> petroleum did quite well. 240 million barrels. bhb signaling production will decline in the next fiscal year --ween 200 million between and 210 million. bhp does say it is going to take an impairment of one or $75 billion on the coal business. this ceo says bhp can continue
♪ yvonne: breaking news from nintendo. looks like stocks headed south, falling a .6%. this is the most since june 24, but what a rally we have seen in the last couple of days or so, and somehow ubs including, saying nintendo rapid market afterion hard to explain it has beaten up companies such as sony so we will continue to watch that one. nintendo stock down today. a check on the latest headlines. equip our aoup said
national gas trading in europe by the end of the year. the commodities trader is said to be downsizing capital intensive units which traders and support staff meeting the company. they have had a turbulent 18 months with a rally in commodity prices and the company's stock falling 45% this year after a 65% drop in 2015. the mobilephone carriers could prove a rare bright spot in this company struggling with a stronger yen in weaker confidence. they are reporting the highest quarterly profits in a decade. analysts expected provided income of $8 billion in the months through july. they are benefiting after the government told them to cut. $55 billion takeover offer was rejected.
santos says the offer was financially inadequate but it was open to further talks. the rest for bayer is that they could choose another suitor. rival overthe german a potential alliance. ailes is toef roger be in the negotiations to leave his job following allegations of sexual harassment. the 76-year-old was sued earlier this month by former anchor greta carlson who claims she was fired for complaining about his conduct. sources told bloomberg, 21st century fox is discussing possible exit terms. nintendo, pokemon go continuing on. the days weending saw yesterday through as much as thiswriting a .3% in tokyo point. a rising fourth day and the up with pokemon go reported again
tomorrow. talking about this, the nintendo affect her go because mcdonald's in japan started offering those pokemon toys in those happy meals, so that is certainly lifting sentiment for the stocks once again. mcdonald's japan close to 8% up in tokyo. back to the markets. brexit has definitely chill the imf forecast. the next forecast says the brexit crisis may offer good news as much you performances are met. we have a chief economist joining us now. great to have you in hong kong studio. i am curious why you say brexit to be a good thing. >> first of all, the lesson is clear. in 1992, we saw a dramatic drop in sterling and never sensed in 1992 drop, employment went up, gdp went up and everything was imprisoned. what i am really saying is that is is not that there are negative fallout in consequences from brexit, but the fact that we need to change is so
implicitly ignored by the market everything will day. the fact that we spoke about this is a clear indication of this. i remember when they were pokemon cards in the 1990's. we are really just repeating the same story over and over and not getting anywhere. yvonne: we see europe divided and a lot of uncertainty coming out of this u.k. referendum, not to mention you have turkey, early -- italy. is there the political will to push for more change? >> no. i think brexit becomes an excuse to actually, how do we redefine the eu? the prime minister is talking about how the eu needs to be redefined. we have a french election in the early parts of next year and the election about the contract. i think what we need to say,
there are two ways to get to the situation where you implied, but the question deals with the reality, we are just taking the fast-track through the brexit, and to some extent, that is very good. we know if nothing changes, we would get a stronger dollar and that kills the emerging market. it kills the export sections of europe. i think the best sign of that, and what i most nervous about is the credit market. the credit market is showing clear signs of yielding. it almost i dictates you cannot move. the fed, as they go beyond, if they do do what we expect, they will kill the banking sectors. yvonne: talking about the treasury, some calling for 1% on the tenure yield. -- 10 year yield. does that sound like a recession? >> i think the market is
ignoring this. we have tighter money in the markets. they have been tightening for the last three quarters. the banks have more capital but the return as we have seen through goldman sachs yesterday and others is ready difficult to reach. others are just loss. say the report is as useful as a snowplow in july. [laughter] yvonne: one thing i thought was notable is japan. they are down to 3.3% this year. i thought it was interesting what we can do when they meet with the boj, do you think they can actually add stimulus and in what form? some say they need to correct these two big lies and admit that they can no longer buy bonds in the market anymore. >> i agree with that assumption. read offnternally, i of record with the boj three
years ago, that they agreed to percent is likely in an environment where you have transfers. the fact is, they can do whatever they want in japan but it will not change their ability because the reforms remain unanswered. the third arrow has never been launched, will never be launched . i have been to japan three times the last six months and it is great country, and we probably underestimate where they are in terms of the credits i. the boj and their ability to save the japanese economy. yvonne: that raises the question, the imf downplaying intervention with the yen. do you see at any point that is warranted, that we do need them to intervene> >> you know, the japanese press is not the most open-minded in the world, so a lot of time, what you need is a strong yen policy because only through strong policy to actually get
the japanese society to reform because of the electorate process, which we will see in july, because of the roles you have relative to the city, it is almost impossible to implement any political changes into the economic system in japan. the only reason you can enforce that is a stronger yen. i think i'm asking the more important question, where does the change in japan come from? it will have to come from stronger currency. yvonne: stronger currency. interesting take. helicopter money, is that absurd? >> it is another monetary illusion in the world. if i gave you the value of $10,000 hong kong dollars, you would need to get another $10,000 hong kong dollars to maintain the same labor of purchase. as you would expect me to give you next her, you would not spend the money, instead putting have the money in the bank keep the others. of course it does not work. you cannot create something out of nothing.
the fact remains the same, we are short on reform, politicians with a vision, short on the ability of even having a willingness to change the economic system, but the beauty there with thest ability to change. the coming french election and certainly in the u.k., brexit is a catalyst. it says, we cannot continue to go down the road of not doing anything. yvonne: we have hit that fever pitch. finally, i want to end on china. the forecast of six months and percent. we have seen some stabilization in the figures, but one it comes to how they are reaching these numbers, it is all on credit. >> absolutely. that is not an exclusive chinese story, those are hong kong stories, european stories, global stories. positiveas a very
response to china was the ability to change. use credits as a short-term mean to create some stability in the economy. i think there is plenty of evidence, if you look at the ability of china to compete. just this morning i read that the financials are up for still companies. we see every single day changes and the chinese story, that it is improving. as you said yourself, i think stimulus from the chinese economy is short-term. we need to change them being export driven to consumer driven. yvonne: great. steve, great to have your input on this. joining us. up next, how microsoft looks at
♪ yvonne: welcome back. you are watching "daybreak asia ." microsoft jumped more than 4% in extended trading with the success of its cloud platform beating the profit estimates. we have been tracking this other thing your. just how big of a factor was the cloud here? >> the numbers really tell the story. you have microsoft beating estimates after the bell and cloud revenue doubled in the quarter. it is on pace right now for 12.1 billion on an annual basis in the sun only pushed the stock up trending up, almost 5% at the peak of after-hours trading, and it also rekindled opposition to the ceo's cloud strategy is more
customers clearly shifted to the company's internet-based software and services. ceo reorientede the business around the cloud over the past three years and it appears to be more than paying off as we see in this particular court. yvonne: su, it is a sign that pc business is improving now? >> that is difficult to say. the cfo said these are legacy products. it came in better than expected, but i will get to those in a minute, a decline was forecasted and they certainly exceeded the forecast. including some readjustments, if we look at the numbers was 22.6 billion. profit came in at 69 versus 58, so that is certainly something that investors can hang their hats on.
it acquired a phone business from nokia and also some job shuts were they did some cost-saving there. we did see a slightly positive performance in the pc division as the cfo pointed out. this includes the windows and xbox products. those sales fell but it was slightly better than the estimates, so the net is in the positive. in terms of the takeaway from the major wall street investors, one has this to say after the report came out, it was comforting, he says, the key underlying trends are in place, at least the long-term trajectory is intact. he said there was some concern last quarter but it appears based on the stock performances, though seven delayed and that could translate into a positive for tomorrow's trading.
♪ yvonne: it is 8:30 in singapore just a half hour way from trading opening there. we will see how singapore trades in just a bit. you are watching "daybreak asia. " ♪ yvonne: let's get to the first world news with juliette saly. >> donald trump is officially the republican nominee for president after receiving the required number of state delegate votes. his home state of new york pushing him over the line of
1237 delegates while his nomination was on was guaranteed. trump protesters interrupted day one of the convention. microsoft gained in extended trading after sales of profits topped estimates, thanks to the cloud business. fourth-quarter revenue was $22.6 billion after adjustments with cloud platforms doubling its earning. the ceo has been changing focus to cloud and product activity focuses as traditional software sales shrank. the imf has graphic prediction the global growth will slow. it now season 3.1% annual expansion, the same as in 2060 -- 2015. the eu reaching trade agreements. otherwise, the u.k. could slip into recession and global growth could fall to 2.8%. arehina and the eu important mutual trade partners, and the anticipated slowdown in
europe, even in the baseline will affect china slightly and possibly up to .1% percentage and 2017.n in 2016 >> global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. i am juliette saly. this is bloomberg. yvonne: 30 minutes into the session in tokyo in sydney, let's check on the markets this morning. here is david. david: let's start off with an update on nintendo. this pokemon go rally for nintendo, having a look at the graphic, taking a breather. it was about time. technicalry single indicator out there was indicating this was the pullback that would happen at some point. that is why you have nintendo down 10%. it does not help that the soft
price has doubled since launch of the game. the game will be launched in japan. nintendo is only trading at 215 times earnings are it is that a or ise is that --good buy that goodbye? uponald's, reports of a tie with pokemon go, unclear if this is on top of mcdonald's, offering pokemon go toys, or pokemon toys with the happy meals. the stock is up over 50%. nintendo is still well up 100 and change percentagewise. the launch on july 8 in the u.s. and australia, and as we mentioned it may be launched in japan today. asia is looking like this, for markets open in australia the only one that is managed to call back from the early losses. in fact, it is only the minors that are seeing some weakness there.
you saw a relief or catch-up rally for tuesday. we are giving back some of the gains at the moment. not surprising, given the numbers we saw from wall street, so taking a breather. no data today anything major. catalystpect any major getting us to jump out of our feet. yvonne: as the bank of japan repairs was policy meeting next week, a formal official at the central bank has come out with some sharp criticism. let's go do jodi schneider who has the latest from tokyo. mistakesl us about the the boj needs to correct. japan former bank of executive director once the bank ease furtherank to
, but also as he said, take the opportunity to correct what he calls two big lies. he is concerned about two things. one, the statement that the bank has unlimited policy option and secondly, that it is making progress, that the economy is making progress to reach the 2% inflation target in the 2% inflation target, the time frame has been continually delay. he said the bank in his view .hould not continue to continue he says it will not happen in that timeframe, and secondly, they will have to stop tapering. the bank of japan decline to comment on his comments. yvonne: interesting take from him. what does he expect to happen at the meeting next week? >> well, he is bullish on
further easing and says he expects that intesa can be done with either expanded purchases of exchange traded funds or even some movement with the negative rate that was produced in january, perhaps for the cuts to the rate. he also once the bank not to be bullish about the inflation target, and he is recommending it in twonot breach years, that not happen at the meeting. we are hearing from other analysts and economists that think there will be further easing at next week's summit as well. yvonne: please just learned the imf is pretty bearish on japan as well. tell us about some of the comments as well. they seem to to downplay the use of yen intervention. >> yes, very clearly. at a press conference in washington, they said that there really isn't a need for intervention in the currency to meet growth and inflation goals.
that the economy will do that with stimulus through a base fund of three arrows and that intervening would not be wise or necessary with this time. those of the comments about the yen and specifically about the yen. yvonne: thank you so much. we will check in on some of the headlines for you. air new zealand passenger numbers rising 6% last year. domestic passengers rose 5.2%. the biggest gains were seen in long-haul with a jump of 60% with shares in auckland looking like this and down 1% for air new zealand. president obama has pledged support for turkey's democracy while urging the president to respect civil liberties following the coup attempt. the government has arrested 6000 people in suspended 20,000
judges, teachers and academics and taken dozens of broadcasters off of the air. they cut its bank tuesday. the fed has banned a former trader from working in the financial industry for life for reading currency benchmark. matthew gardner used electronic chat rooms to manipulate fx ofchmarks into dispose information that was confidential. been delveds have against other traders. delegate votes from his home state of new york putting donald trump over the line. his son, donald trump junior made the announcement. >> speaking to real americans, giving them a voice again, and it is my honor to be able to throw donald trump over the top in the delegate count tonight
with 89 delegates. another six for john kasich. congratulations, down. we love you. -- dad. we love you. yvonne: let's go back to the cleveland convention. margaret, what is happening right now? >> that was certainly a lovely in lighthearted moment, donald trump and his children with the crowd behind them. the main things that have happened tonight is donald trump is now formally the gop dominate it is running mate, mike pence, although is formally nominated, but in between donald trump junior's crowds and shout outs for his dad, and the official word, there was a bit of a scuffle. it really does illustrate some of the ongoing divisions inside the party. it was procedural. a representative from the state and askedstood up that the vote be recounted and
paul ryan, who is the u.s. house speaker as well as the leadership role in the convention that had to preside over the awkward several minutes long period of investigating the rules to find out if the vote could be recounted. ultimately, donald trump still have the votes needed, and he goes on to become the nominee. that is how it all came to be. this is been a dramatic convention from the start, drama continued again tonight. donald trump and his running mate, mike hence are now formally the republican nominees for president and vice president. yvonne: not to mention the awkward first night with the plagiarism controversy surrounding donald trump's wife, melania trump with her speech. how has that affected the sentiment there? >> yes, the sentiment, in terms of her is that the republicans in this convention are still very much supportive of her, very much behind her, but it has created some internal controversy inside the party
about whether donald trump has the infrastructure with the campaign that he really needs to take seriously things like speechwriting, major presentations, protecting the image of his wife. who is to blame? should someone be fired? all of these things have continue to swirl controversy and have given democrats fodder to attack from into his campaign -- trump and his campaign. it has been an embarrassing day for the donald trump campaign and an opportunity again for his divisiono appoint the and disorganization. tonight, what he wants to do is unify everybody. he has an important list of speakers tonight, the house speaker, senate majority leader, governor chris christie, a couple of his children. the theme of jobs in the economy tonight. this is what they want to be talking about, not who wrote his wife fuzzy speech and whether she should credit michelle obama. yvonne: yes, wants to stay way
from the dramatic developments we have seen of late. what is the latest on the clinton campaign? did close to announcing her vice presidential pick? >> we certainly anticipate she is. there is no reason to believe she would do this during the middle of the republican convention. if she follows what is been the previous democratic model and in fact donald trump is he model we would expect an announcement to come friday. have not said that officially. so far, their events are scheduled in florida and that is hugely important with the american swing state in the presidential election. the clinton campaign is careful to say they are not announcing a broadcasting the venue at this point. we believe she is down to a couple of choices, two or three choices and we will know in a couple days when all the attention shifts her way. yvonne: thank you so much. again, live from cleveland, the second day of the republican convention. up next, the craze that is defining china's market.
♪ yvonne: let's do a quick check of the latest business headlines. yahoo! selling the top three assets. favorite come up as a for submitting their bids on monday. at&t and private equity firms have also put in their offers. yahoo! is expected to hold a father selection round before deciding on the final bidder. india is giving it state backed banks the capital injection. lenders will be up $3.4 billion in the financial sector. they would get about 75% of the money now and the rest depending on performance. the country was the largest lenders said the bank will get the biggest portion followed by
indian overseas banks. the injection is about 6% lower in last year. a hot new trade in china's slumping equity markets, small companies with stock dividends. joining us with more on that. >> with the issuing of the stock dividend, you basically are cutting the pie into smaller pieces, no real cost of the company and no real value added for the shareholder except if it draws and more investors, right? drivesy, the mentality stocks up and that is what we have seen in the first six months of this year. the smaller companies and that composite index, 239 of them have announced plans to at least double the outstanding shares. the shares, in terms of the 39 on average are up 20% since the announcement compared to the composite index, which is down 12% to year today. i will give you two examples. , andhird group company
they need to shorten their name, food served in individual packets, it is 129 earnings but the future the same. that chart tells you about where they announced the stock dividend. guess where that was? right where it took off. the bottom line is the flat pancake index. 31% since the late june announcement. change the page. new mantle material, and outgoing maker, --aloy maker. up 97%. it is troubling it stock earlier in june. it had a trait of 120. yvonne: what is interesting, you see both of these companies not raising their forecast in any
way possible. we do know the retail investor in china loves the trade. stephen: they do. you are right. neither of these two companies have forecast during the big run-up any big increase in earnings. it is a mentality. retail players dominate the china market. it is kind of human nature to like cheaper prices. if everyone is piling into it, that is what they are doing. the small companies like a boost in liquidity. they feel confident that the business can grow fast enough, and that will counter the dilution of fact that comes with more shares. because there are risks that one company, the food company i mentioned is down $.15 in the last couple of weeks. they launched a probe because laster, regulators were looking into possible manipulation of shares.
i am not saying that it's happening with this company. yvonne: you have heard this story before. stephen: they are cracking down on this if there is boost in speculation. yvonne: thank you so much. the u.k.'s decision to leave the eu, led to a cutting global growth forecast. department research director of the imf and earlier i asked him why the organization may such a marginal cut to its forecast considering the impact of brexit being far-reaching. >> there is a lot of uncertainty out there, but the financial market reaction so far has been quite contained. given the quite contained financial market reaction, we outlookelatively benign ahead with a gradual reduction in uncertainty, and less of a hit coming from financial or get
volatility then we were fearing. having said that, uncertainty is high in things could turn out much worse. yvonne: this time we will focus on china and japan. japan, of course, there are so many concerns about whether aben omics is really going to work this time. is there any hope that i can work this time around? for reforms toe hit the japanese economy. there is hope for fiscal policy to support activity, monetary policies also doing its part on that score, and it is essential for japan to boost its potential growth and structural reforms are key in that regard. yvonne: yes, you really japanapan --slahsed
forecast quite a bit. it is feeling growth in the second quarter. what made you feel things were going on the upside? >> the upside for this year is exactly what you indicated. there is more stimulus in the pipeline than we had anticipated and this is going to boost headline growth for this year. of course, you have a big rebalancing task i had and --ahead and credit growth is hunting on this score. it is going to have to be addressed in the future. we may have to tolerate slower growth to ensure growth becomes more sustainable. yvonne: judging by what we have seen so far in the u.n. since the brexit vote, are you more confident about how the chinese government is handling the economy in the currency? progress haslot of been made uncertain fronts, if
we look at rebalancing of consumption picking up relative to investments. if you look on the reform side, financial markets have proceeded well and we have seen less progress raining and credit growth and we have seen less product us with -- progress with budget constraints. i think the challenges remain big but progress has been made. foreign exchange markets have declined a lot, but the task ahead is still a complicated one for the authorities. yvonne: that was the resource department to -- director of the imf. up next, the japanese tycoon is big on the philippines. he is gambling $4 billion on a casino resort in manila. details, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ yvonne: manila is poised a challenge. it is the number one giblin hub. they plan to open a new casino in november that could cost up to $4 billion. let's go to our southeast asia correspondent who has more. now in a downturn, so this is and on toagainst manila. this is a huge project. >> it is huge. at $4 billion, the resort
casino, casino resort, rather said manila would be twice the market. the company shared by kazuo okada who owns almost 70% of universal entertainment, his investment shows his commitment, his confidence in the philippine game arcade. the plan really is to attract china's gamblers. they will be -- there will be a floor, indooring beach and 500 gambling tables. they say manila will be promoted as a destination in the region and the world. overseas investors including chinese, japanese, korean initially, and nick's of 30% foreigners and 70% local. after a year, foreigners could account for half of the clientele. the gaming industry in the philippines, it should have the best performance ever in the second quarter, like you said. more gamblers are leaving, given