tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg July 26, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
in hong kong. i'm vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. 30 minutes left in the trading day. ♪ mark: in london, covering stories in france. in belgium, here is what we're watching today. dp shares falling on a in hong . i'm vonnie quinn. results. trouble ahead for energy producers as oil plunges to a fresh three-month low. 45% plunge in profit, the first major oil company to report vonnie: an iphone index that measures the value of currencies around the world. you might be surprised by what it said about the u.s. dollar. and sweetening its offer for s&p miller after the post brexit slump. some investors say the newvonnie
still undervalues the company. willie deal get done? mark: we are 30 minutes away the tuesday of session. appetite for risk has diminished and the stoxx 600 has barely changed. test left-handst column are rising. all of the currencies are falling against the dollar. yields are rising in these countries, credit default swaps gaining. appetite for risk declining somewhat as the fed kicks off its meeting. boj will take place thursday and friday. bankshares earlier falling the most in a month. germany'second-biggest bank is quoted -- disclosing an unexpected drop, a key measure in unexpected strength hurt by operational risks such as legal expenses. the tier one ratio fell to 11.5% at the end of june from 12% three months earlier. why they didonder
not see this coming. net income in the second quarter fell about 2% and these are the two big german lenders in 2016, roughly performing the same and both declining roughly 42% today. tire maker, biggest profit rising better than estimated 11%. cost-cutting plan kicking and and car sales growth accelerating in china. it stuck to a 2016 financial target and expects the market for passenger car and light truck tires to remain land in china even as north america and china lose some momentum for the remainder of the year. shares up why 1.5% and this is a chart we showed earlier. a bloomberg view columnist, which highlights the spread widening between the u.k. two-year.nd the u.s.
this is as the fed kicks off its today deliberations, and it of course comes ahead of the bank of england meeting. looser policy, and the difference in yields is now the most it has in -- it has been since may of 2000. nine minutes into the trading day in the united states, let's get over to the markets desk. julie has got the latest. hello. julie: things have taken a turn for the worst in the united states. the dow is down 80 seven points. the s&p and the nasdaq are also under more pressure at the moment. of course folks are waiting for the fed, the concluding -- conclusion of today meeting, odds are very low being priced in in any kind of change in rates. the focus remains on earnings in dates.ted i will look at industrials. we are actually seeing contrary to the overall market move some gains based on earnings reports. technology bringing up the lower
end of its 2016 forecast. caterpillar saying sales will be at the low end of the forecast. nonetheless, shares are moving higher and dupont shares have turned around. the company raising the low end of its forecast. topping analyst estimates as it still plans to complete its merger with dow chemical by the end of the year. smaller industrial stocks are also doing pretty well today. crane makes different kinds of industrial products and the company earnings beat estimates. bea and andalso commit with numbers that beat estimates, also raising its forecast for the year and the maker of different kinds of fixtures for the home, that company also coming out ahead of estimates and raising dividends for the full year. related to industrials, we have got texas instruments, which makes chips for industrial uses. that companys'--
is forecasted of of estimates. can see it is higher in pulling up other chipmakers like it. linear technology also catching a bit today. vonnie: thank you. let's check with courtney collins from the new york newsroom p courtney: bernie sanders says his -- he hopes his backers will not disrupt tonight'rollcall vote to formally nominate hillary as the democratic nominee for president. heckled on the streets of philadelphia and at the convention. sanders spoke this morning at a bloomberg politics breakfast. mr. sanders: politics are a little messy sometimes especially for young people who worked their hearts out for the campaign and supported and we lost. they worked at -- against hillary clinton and i'm saying, board for hillary clinton. sometimes, -- people have emotions in people have feelings.
>> sanders told the convention that clinton must be elected but he did not directly call for his supporters to vote for clinton. americans bought new homes in june at the fastest pace in eight years. a seasonally adjusted rate of 592,000. meanwhile, the median price of a just $307,000. islam state is claiming responsibility for a brutal killing in a church in .orthwestern france two attackers took hostages inside a church during morning math. they stabbed an elderly priest to death before they were shot and killed by police. another hostage was seriously injured. president francois hollande says everything should be used in the fight against the islamic state. in an opinion article in the new york times, turkey's president was accused of using the failed
takeover to oppose authoritarian rule. ms. in exile in the united states. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg. mark: the oil giant missed second quarter estimates and bp is posting a 45% slump. falling refining market -- margins and falling debt. to in as were spoken conference call within the last hour and he said continue high oil industries could limit price increases going forward. let's bring in bloomberg's managing editor -- editor of energy and commodities. does this set the stage for a core set of result from big players out there or not? >> i think it shows it will be a tough quarter since oil slumped, the last coming to gain some
kind of high refining margins, that is clearly overpeer it we see that in bp's's results today were margins are significantly lower and that is because there is so much fuel around things -- that is likely -- exxon and chevron. mark: how tricky is the chief executive's road ahead, with debt rising in the oil price rally is seemingly fading. >> there were positives. 5.5 and dollars worth of cash flow or the trouble it is -- trouble is it is hard to see the changes here, oil prices, 15 below, as you say, $6 billion of debt a year, and they have to keep adding that to keep paying investors. absent a big rally in oil, it does seem like a bit of a slump. vonnie: at what point does the -- does bp get in trouble or
does it keep financing its operations? >> they could finance the operations very easily. one thing, we saw today it is still cutting capital spending. there was a change in language in the statement. they have said they expect to change about 17 billion this and that is now below 17 billionaire that is probably good news because shares are staying well across. all of these companies made that the deadline. and that is now below 17 billionaire that is probably good news because shares are i suppose in the year ahead, the question becomes how much debt could they really take on to keep paying the dividend dudley today was pretty relaxed and he said with money so cheap, we can afford to stretch the balance sheet, which can take the strain, and that it is not a problem. it is probably true now but there may come a point where it -- it will become more of a focus for investors.
vonnie: showing a drop of one .60%, if we just do the longer term went up, and the longer-term chart then would show that bp is actually coming under his little bit of pressure but not so much. really only in the last month or two, though stock prices dipped. investors are willing to wait. >> one thing i should say about the share prices, i had a very good run up after the referendum because a sterling coveted earns all revenue and dollars, it looked pretty cheap on a sterling basis after the pound plunged. yes, i think people think -- the real question is, where is the growth coming from? they are doing ok but how do they start to do well? mark: they can now draw a line in the sand under this gulf of mexico disaster.
we have got the final tally, the final cost number. >> $62 billion. there is a huge effect there. for six years, every quarter, they had to say, we will have to put this money up a bit, they had talk about it, it is 40 billion and 50 billion. now they are willing to say it is probably not going any higher. for the company, it is probably a real chance for the senior management team and all the employees to move on and start thinking about, how do we rebuild profitability? mark: kennedy in london, thank you. the european close. can raising the interest rate fight off the soaring inflation rate? this is bloomberg. ♪
close. about 15 minutes until the end of the trading day. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn in new york. economists, the nigeria central bank raised its key interest despite decades high inflation. faceses after the economy shrinking gdp growth. the economy reporter now, she is live in johannesburg. straight to the currency, it is weakening and weakening and the black-market rate, as you can see, is much weaker than the official rate. faces shrinking gdp growth.
the economy reporter now, she is the hope for inflation -- do not look very good, do they. >> we know it is difficult to check, a rate hike of 200 basis points. nigeria has struggled to bring foreign currency of the market since it devalued by 70% on june 20 when it introduced the flexibility of the regime. we do know the rate increase today could help move real interest rates into positive territory, attract foreign currency into the market and boost confidence and attract investment into the economy. vonnie: a lot of things need to the hope forbe's -- settle befot happens. >> with the central bank governor has said is that today's rate hike is essentially signal theelp
central bank's commitment to profitability and also the desire to gradually move to positive real and should straight territory and he also said the economy is passing through a difficult phase at this point in time. in the latest forecast, the economy would grow by 1.8%. it is not looking like this is a problem that can be solved overnight. say, theyou 15-month-old take, that was removed last month. the view was let the markets decide. remover they viewed the -- removal? >> the governor made it clear that in their view, the new regime is going well. time.l take it has only been just a month since a new regime was decided upon an interview -- introduced in the market. really hoping that this would help increase the supply of foreign currency into the
morning. for 3%ere projecting global growth this year and 3.3 next year. that was before the most recent set of events, both economic referendum as well as a range of terror instruments which have potentially undermined which -- what looked to be a better climate for growth in europe. we put that together and we're in the process of doing revisions, and as you know, the imf came out with a revised outlook and that came down. the picture for 16 and 17 and it once again looks like it will be a downgrade. it is very unfortunate. we would like to be able to come with that are news one of these times but that does not seem to be enough on the horizon. >> she said there are losers in global trade and something must be done. airbus has ordered 30 eight through 21 to expand its premium service.
a list price of $3.6 billion although airlines will generally get discounts. and the index suite in its offer for 80 miller. the price is $103 billion. sab million -- investors would get 130 shares, responding to deal'ss about the structure after a drop in the wake of the brexit vote. that is your bloomberg business flash for the hour. playingb miller, let's -- bring in the bloomberg intelligence and the -- analyst. management,et biggest shareholder says the offer to revise undervalues the company and remains unacceptable. will it still go through? >> i spent a lot of time on
this. nine or 10 months in. i suspect they will do the same thing with shareholders as well. cash you have got a new offer of 45 pounds. true --k would be tweaked a bit. a disparity between the two. why did they not resolve the issue? is an issuer, that because of sterling. it was put in place, about a 14% discount. brexit has hit that and the deal , two majorplace shareholders of s&p and the big -- the structure of
the deal is quite important at the time. i am showing you a simple chart of sterling versus the major weakened but we have seen a stabilization. in the hopes that perhaps there would be a bigger move and we can force more money out of the deal. i'm sure they're trying to squeeze as much as they possibly can from it. they have done everything they thingd only one major left to sign off on the deal. it has come relatively quickly. if you do not ask now, you will not get it. vonnie: mom it was just on with us saying he sees chances of greater than 60%.
any impact on this are is it -- the uk's economy? >> if you have got to buy a global business, you want a population in countries that are becoming urbanized. that is why they are trying to do everything they can. since november, we have seen consumer goods companies rise by roughly 17%. sab has been left behind, it has risen by a similar amount. it was not that big of a premium. is that a valid argument? >> if you look at the economic side, you need to look at the fundamentals of the countries. if anything, the fundamentals have gone worse in the currencies have made it quite difficult in the major markets. you've got one offsetting the other. it is certainly an argument that investors will be using. they leaves the fact that if you
look at the numbers that have come through, it has not actually gone up a great deal. mark: how has the industry changed as a result of the deal? doone thing you will have to , pricing has been very aggressive over the last years. i am sure they're going to put the budweiser brand across all the networks, but ultimately, you have to have a beer that is affordable and brings people into drinking beer. they see changes in the price next. soldtively yes, they have the assets out -- or are in the process of it. mark: great to see you and thank you for joining us today. right. europeanok at where markets are trading as we head to the close today. literally five minutes away from the end of the tuesday's
russian. stocks have been up and down and they are higher now. .5%.toxx 600 up by investors have been sitting on their hands a little bit today ahead of the common nation of the two-day meeting the kicked off today and the today bank of japan meeting, which starts on thursday and and on friday. no stimulus expected from the fed. signal the meeting in september, the third week of the month is live. willmed said they probably in the company statement. sterling is lower against the dollar. martin, policymaker, has basically said that stimulus is needed next month or life that important? this is bloomberg markets. ♪
vonnie quinn. it looks like it will close higher by 1/5 of 1%. half of the index gaining. half roughly following. that is the conclusion of the fed's two-day meeting that closes tomorrow and the boj later. it is after a two-week advance, the best weekly stretch since may the 29. .his is media set media said is the italian media company owned by the former prime minister. you can see that shares in mediaset are down. rolling out of the deal to buy a televisionet's units. that is with mr. berlusconi's unit. it is part of a broader alliance
that involves a swap between the two companies. it is proposing to purchase 20% of the paid television units to increase the stake in mediaset to 15% in three years with a convertible bond. they submitted the new proposal because it disagrees with mediaset about the pay television unit's performance. they say it comes out of the blue and was not agreed. chairs are off the lows of the day. orange also within the new, the french telecommunications brokered bought land services upsetting the competition in the french mobile market after a failed attempt to buy a business. it is stuck with the three major rivals in one of the most competitive telecoms markets in europe. this is sterling against the 16 major peers. since june 24, the day of the u.k. referendum.
look at the moves that we have seen for the pound, the real in brazil of 15 percent, the yen up 16%. the worst performer is the swedish krona, gaining by 7%. there was an interesting piece in the financial times today policymaker,t doe who has basically been a hawk since he joined the doe, now favors immediate stimulus for pmi dataof friday which showed a slump in the index which includes manufacturing and services. i wanted to show you sterling since the brexit referendum. weeks the possibility next on the work function. the wonderful work function. from hawk to dove than one feels smooth. very interesting. i want to look at the yen.
you heard mohamed el-erian talking about it. a little bit of strengthening. people are scaling back their impressions of what might take toys at the boj this week. stimulus on the other side might be rounded up as much as they thought. it is still weaker on the month in the favor of the u.s. dollar. wti, looking below, a drop of 4/10 of 1%. that is affecting the russian ruble. it was impervious for a while, but it is weakening by 1%. then we have the spread narrowing, 80 basis points. i wanted to point out the china yuan. we saw strengthening after the g-20, perhaps taking note of the warning on currencies. looking at the broader u.s. market indices, the dow down 4/10 of a point. the nasdaq is barely moving,
down 1/10 of 1%. we have more from the nasdaq with abigail doolittle. the index opened slightly lower and is trading moderately higher for the morning. it is slightly lower. the most recent downturn is at some of the mega cat names including also that, google, and apple trading lower. is gileadt drag sciences, on pace for the worst drop since the end of april. basically, in three months, this is after gilead sciences missed estimates in sales for its hepatitis c drugs significantly. they also offered a below forecast sales of you for the full year. there he should activity suggesting that we are looking at a negative trend. a one-year chart that we see that 50 day moving average in orange and the stock are trending down.
today on the bearish average, they are below the 50 day moving average. the last time, juliet sciences has dropped 50% all in. there could be more downsides ahead. vonnie: you mentioned the weakness being offset by some tech movers. abigail: texas instrument up five point 9%, the highest level since july of 2000 after the analog mi conductor company beat estimates on the top line and the bottom line and a better than expected forecast. we have real strength. it is one of the top-performing stocks for the nasdaq, up 28% year to date. some may wonder if it is too late to get in. a record of $92 suggests shares of texas instruments could climb by another 31% from current levels. shares are higher behind texas instruments on the news
that the director and cofounder of technology crossover ventures . 600,000 shares. bloomberg intelligence analyst paul sweeney says this is a bullish sign. vonnie: thank you. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. more from our new york newsroom. state claiming responsibility for brutal killing in a church in the normandy region of france. hostages were taken during morning mass. they stabbed an elderly priest before they were shot by police. another hostage was seriously injured. president ollanta visited the scene. -- resident how long -- president francois hollande visited the scene. >> the third remains high even after everything we have been through. we are facing a group that has declared war. we must lead this war with all
of our means while respecting the law. that is what makes us a democracy. >> antiterrorism unit is investigating. are staying away from france and turkey the summer. they are flocking to spain and portugal. both forecast a record number of tourists. overnight stays in portugal jumped 13%. foreignaw a 9% drop in visitors in the fourth quarter. relations appear to be warming up between turkey and russia. the president of turkey will travel to russia for talks with vladimir putin. turkey has praised russia in its support for the attempted coup. allies have criticized president erdogan. the first solar flight ended in abu dhabi on a record of 20,000 miles. the solar impulse 2 did not use a drop of fuel as it made 16
stops across the world. it is powered by 17,000 solar cells. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. european equities fluctuating today. throughout history they continue to track closely. we have seen a divergence in returns with the u.s. dow. discuss the diversions with the global head of equities derivatives strategy. hello. before you answer, you have a few seconds. this is a chart ever showing yesterday. i remembered, i must show this chart. it is the bloomberg sovereign bond index versus the yield on the stock. we know the yield on the stock .s roughly 4% more than the sovereign to bond
index. in valuation terms, european thans are 25% cheaper their u.s. peers. where's the love for european stocks? edmund: no love. because growth is rubbish. there is a lot of political turmoil and brexit put the icing on the cake and people retreated to dollar assets and the s&p 500 . at 20% of the record, which is where we are for the stoxx 600, 20% off the record. the s&p a few days ago goes from strength to strength. is that disparity warranted? edmund: in what time frame? mark: a decade or two? .dmund: over a decade, no you look at valuations over the long term and they tend to revert in a 10 year time frame. europe looks cheap. particularly spain and italy, they look incredibly cheap. that would suggest on the
metrics that you should get a double-digit return on average over the next are year. edmund, listen to what robert taylor, who created the tiller pe that you have been referencing, had to say on bloomberg markets with me and mark. >> the really important thing to say is that it is the u.s. and high cape ratios. on a worldwide basis, it is not particularly high. in europe it is not high. in emerging countries it is relatively low. it is not like there is no good investments in stock markets in the world at this time. vonnie: that makes it sound there are opportunities left, right, and it center and there is no reason to be reaching for yields. edmund: i would not say there is no reason not to reach for yields when you consider a huge minority of the world
sovereign's bond yield is less than zero. that would tell me there are good reasons for searching for yields. i think professor shiller is right that there are pockets of value. the problem is that at the value, low valuations, and for reason. people are scared, and usually for a pretty good reason. ok, what should they be most scared of? geopolitical events? economic fundamentals? markets not complying with what the reality of the economic fundamentals are? edmund: i think we should get used to the fact that growth is slow. that there will be more volatility on the horizon. if you look to europe you have an italian constitutional referendum for prime minister renzi. if he loses that, he will have to resign. by his own admission, he said if i lose i will resign.
that could cause volatility. then we have the november presidential election. remember, the republican candidate mr. trump is actually cnn pollthe last which has thrown the cat among the pigeons. mark: you talk about capb cyclically adjusted price-to-book. a valuation tool, what does it tell us? what is different? why would you prefer it? reason.for one simple low values tend to be less volatile over periods than earnings. the second point is when we go through regressions and look over history, this capb, the book value metric fits the returns better. at any point in time, the capb gave you a better handle on the 10 year returns from that point 10 years henceforth than the cap. mark: your favorite chart, the
tech sector, the nsci world, why is there so much of love for this chart? edmund: technology is obviously an interesting thing at the moment. it is a spectre where on one hand is clearly growth. the amount of time we spend on , howhones or computers much of the grocery spending goes to technology in one form of the other, it has grown. growing as a proportion of our spending over time. that goes without question. at the moment it is a value sector. if you think of companies like apple, they trade at basic x .ash single digit pe's you get are you there is growth in the sector and at the same time there is value. peaked under tim cook? edmund: no.
the biggest stories in the news. porsche will add 1400 jobs to take on tesla in a battle of electric cars. most will be in germany. the automaker will spend more than one billion dollars to develop the first battery-powered sports car in 2019. teaming up with the british government to test delivering packages by garonne. among the things being tested, the drone's ability to identify and avoid obstacles, and the ability of operators to fly multiple drones at once. they were criticized for not providing guidance on how not to fly drones safely. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. time for botc. the global battle of the charts. we look at some of the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. you can access the charts by running the function featured at the bottom of your screen.
asked by popular demand, sir matthew miller. : thank you. the chart that i have is something that janet yellen looks at a lot. labor marketed conditions index. you can see that the green is good. the red is bad. in the sense that green means labor conditions are improving and red means that they are deteriorating. the interesting thing is after the last recession we came into full employment, we are seeing deteriorating labor conditions. that might be a concern to people who want to see a rate increase. this is 1572 in the chart library. vonnie: i love that chart. the series does not go back as far as other series, but it is amazing. matt: take us back to 87, before you were born. mark: i love the way that vonnie
killed that by being nice. i love that chart but it does not go back far enough. vonnie: i got help from the control room for this one. this is a new index. the big mac index is one of the try to figurele out if the currency is over or undervalued in comparison with other countries. new more a looks at the iphone. it is available in most countries. you can argue if it should be an iphone index or other product index, but there is an interesting disparity. if you look at the iphone index, the u.s. dollar is overvalued in brazil. the big mac index, it is undervalued. same with all of the countries on this scale. the u.s. dollar is overvalued when it comes to the iphone's and undervalued when it comes to big macs. there are labor costs and taxes, u.s.ou can be how the
dollar stacks up against other currencies against a whole array of purchasing parity measures. mark: sorry, tell us what is the g? vonnie: have a look there. has justary clark e-mailed me. the queen of charts. she said her chart is not the g chart. we should disqualify her. it is a fascinating piece of information. matt: i actually find that charge more interesting than this, which we all know this. mark: matt miller has made it easy for me. today, we have seen tough vonnie who has slated miller's chart. vonnie wins with her mac and iphone chart wins. vonnie: four bloomberg markets right ahead. ♪
♪ vonnie: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." some biotech news. gilead sciences falling by the most in a month. second-quarter earnings topped estimates with sales of the hepatitis c drug slowing, forcing the company to lower its four-year forecast. that is part of the story impacting the sector. joining us is the senior biotech analyst. thank you for joining us. explain to us what the story is with gilead. know that trepidations with the hepatitis c drug and how few people it would gets to. >> what happened is the earnings. the sales target, it matter that. what everyone focused on and had a visceral reaction was when the
biggest hepatitis c drug completely missed estimates by a large margin. about 10% or 13% of what we had on the terminal. we already called it going into q1, it was a in bit light. we did not expected to be this bad. what happened was a multitude of different things. the delivery of rebating had increased more than anticipated. more of the drug being reimbursed through the government -- a more higher rebate was paid out. and things like the size of the market was miss estimated as well by gilead. vonnie: i know a lot of companies seem to have large moves when there is news. more than when bluetooth companies and so forth -- and why did this earnings affect so
much? when a company that bake has such a big impact on its wine and you have sentiment, it will drag the entire space down. that happened yesterday. news thatf biotech came through that did not permeate well. when there is negative sentiment around the big companies, it drags the section down. and: let's talk about asti the below. it failed to extend life of patients with more subtypes of the disease. help -- how big of a blow is this? asthika: going into this trial we went very optimistic. the streak was not optimistic. it will meet the second endpoint. it had two different endpoints. woulds if patients
live without the tumor growing, it met at that. the more critically relevant was actual survival. this is an interim analysis, not the full analysis. the upside case is that it showed a survival benefit on the interim analysis on survival -- it did not. not positive. it shows the drug this well this early on. it was expected. that is why the stock was not down, only 5% or so. mark: thank you for joining us. asthika goonewaredene bloomberg intelligence biotech analyst. it is 11:56 in new york. european markets finished the day. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm scarlet fu. >> i am amanda lang. we are covering stories from washington to frankfurt. below 40 threeng dollars a barrel ahead of major central bank meetings. the latest wave of corporate earnings in the u.s.. after a united front in philadelphia, speakers at the democratic national convention will try to address one of hillary clinton's vulnerabilities, that voters have not warmed to her. quarterwood third results with iphones still the biggest factor to the bottom line. will they be able to reduce falling growth? u.s.e halfway through the trading day. we need to go to the markets where julie hyman is keeping an eye