tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg July 28, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
mark: we are going to take you from new york to london and cover stories out of berlin and detroit in the next hour. here is what we are watching today. governments,tween sabmiller and amb about appears to be on ice for now. will play hardball. and then travel for shell, the biggest company reports a 72% drop in profits, the lowest orderly earnings in 11 years. it gets hit by lower crude prices and weaker refining margins. and the different story in european banks. credit suisse beat estimates with unexpected returns profit. bnc para bob and lloyd's expansion group also topping estimates.
at detroit, we are a few minutes away from the closed today. this is the global function macro movers. those are your equity to say. andreign, bonds commodities. busy day when it comes to earnings today. one of the busiest in the earnings season, 70 companies on the stoxx 600 reporting earnings. let's get to the shell, royal dutch shell, lowest quarterly earnings in 11 years. it missed estimates by $1 billion, weaker refining margins and production all weighed on this biggest oil company. total sought efforts fall. this was a deep cut in rising production, helped the french company set aside crude prices and a mystic refineries. total of 34.5%.
let's get to the minors, anglo-american, shells -- shares rising the highest in a year. about debt andll the commodities collapse. this year is all about the fact that it is on target. to me this, cut net debt by the end of the year. book charges after last year's tailing spill at the joint venture in brazil killing 19 people. they will book a charge of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion for the six months to june 30, along with direct costs of nearly $100 million. dnp also reports earnings. miningre the big companies since january 20 when they sank to a 13 year low. anglo american has risen 281
percent. antofagasta down 45%. let's look at what is happening to u.s. markets, similar story to what the situation is in europe today. it is a day dominated by earnings. we are just figuring out with the next move is from the federal reserve. let's check in on bloomberg's first word news today. has return inn spotlight tonight. the nomination after getting a rousing endorsement from president obama in philadelphia last night. the president said no one has ever been more qualified to sit in the oval office. president obama: i am asking you to join me to reject cynicism and reject fear and to some and what is best in us to elect -- what is bestmmon
for us and elect hillary clinton. mark: michael bloomberg said she is not a flawless candidate, but voters need to select her over donald trump who recalls the dem's -- dangerous demagogue. in germany, chancellor merkel says refugees who committed acts of terror mocking the country's hospitality. she cut short her vacation to face questions over her refugee policy. this comes in the wake of violence that left 13 people dead this month. three out of four were committed by refugees seeking asylum. french officials identified the second and attacked a church where he took hostages until the priests. he was 19 years old, from turkey -- spot heading to turkey. were sent a photo of the man with the morning he to be planning an attack.
he and the other attacker were both killed by police. and the international olympic committee wants to make sure there is no cheating at next year's -- next month's summer olympics, so it hired a london-based firm to look out for suspicious gambling. they will view data from gambling markets to look for anything that suggests match fixing. books --biggest sports las vegas sports books will take bets for the first time in 15 years. global news 24 hours a day card by more than 2600 journalists and analysts to more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg, and i am mark barton. we have a billion-dollar takeover. this has been thrown into a rape. tells employees to quit working on the integration of the two beer makers. as a be shareholders have not
been compensated -- sabmiller shareholders say they have not reimbursed enough. i want to bring in duncan. i thought i was done with you. is it unraveling? >> no, i suspect they will get and amb and the -- ab inbev did make a bid. : we know some shareholders are not happy. duncan: the key shareholders are the ones we need to know, that is alcor and then count. . 44 would ever the partial chair alternative was. it is now worth 51 dollars. it would be strange if the change was there, but we don't know. mark: they said it was a buy and loss.
is it unlikely? duncan: i am not sure they can tweak the numbers. the issue lies, most people don't want to be tied up for five years. matter tooes not them. it is a massive tax cut. shareholders probably don't want to be tied up for five years. mark: thank you very much for joining us. you will be back again, i sense it. bloomberg intelligence. 11:07 in new york. let's go to global market policy with the fed leaving things unchanged, investors are turning to tomorrow's boj policy decision. it is a big one. markets went soaring in recent days. company mayoda and deliver or disappoint. let's bring in danny blanchflower, dartmouth professor, former bank of england policymaker. he is in hanover, new hampshire.
great to see you. >> hello. great to see you. mark: let's talk about the boj. can it surprise us? is there anything left to surprise the market? >> i don't think so. it is a signal that stimulus is counting -- coming both on the monetary and fiscal sides. much of that has been priced in. the question is will it be enough again? and will it be the only central bank that is going to stimulate? i don't think so. the bank of england is coming soon. mark: yeah, next week. we spoke before the july meeting. you said they should get on with it. it leads me to next week, they will get on with it, aren't they? danny: they are, and we will talk on the day that they do that. what is telling is martin we'll a week ago said we should wait,
we should wait for the data. and a couple of days ago he said we waited, and the data is horrible. you have heard from for members of the and pc, and the reality is you have to look at the flow of things coming in. it is looking really awful. i was looking today at the economic sentiment index that came out. every part of it has collapsed. retail, industry, construction, services, consumer confidence index is falling. it looked like it was in 2008, it is falling through the floor. so the question just like in japan it is not, will they act, it is how much will they act, what will it do, and will he get help from fiscal policy? that is what we heard rum japan. -- from japan. chancellor who is probably trying to work out where his office is still. it will be monetary policy to the floor.
it looks like the only show in town, but maybe the fiscal guides will get their act together eventually, and we will see reversal. mark: let's say they bring rates to zero and we get more qe. what is the impact? danny: the worry is actually you are right, there really is very few western left. you would like to be in a position eight years after the shock where rates are at 5%, you sold off your assets that you purchased, and when the new shock came, you could do something about it. you are right, there are limits. the bank of england probably cut from 0.5% to -.5%. buying infrastructure bonds, corporate bonds, that sort of thing, but you are right. there is a limit to what they can do. so the fiscal authority will have to get their act together. basically give up everything they have done for the last five years. mark: you mentioned vat.
if you had philip hammond here, give me some policies he really should be considering right now. danny: he certainly should be trying to think about doing something very quickly. the great benefit of the vat cut is you could do it today, midnight, and that would have a big, very progressive -- but you want to think about infrastructure spending. can you get shovel ready projects moving quickly? it turns out there are quite a lot that the past planning permission waited to get funding. money intod to get the economy. saying things like i will do a corporate tax cut, that is fine, but it will not do anything for two years. you need to start to do things that prevent this recession from coming. vat is a good idea, but people are talking about helicopter money, or you put money in people's bank accounts.
it is about, get moving, don't -- thisis is snake mistake you made in 2008 of waiting. it is not doing something rather than doing something, the mistake. mark: thank you. look forward to seeing you after the boe meeting. danny blanchflower, dartmouth professor, former bank of england monetary member. he will join us next thursday. the european close, how long can london whether the follow-up from brexit? we have an interview with the chief mirror business. ♪
mark: live from london, i am mark art and counting you down to the european close, just about 15 minutes away. before the u.k. brexit referendum vote, we had a lot about london, whether it can lose the citizens elected to leave the eu. we caught up with the deputy mayor in an expose of interview. he discussed london's place in the brexit negotiations with europe. london has been a great place to do business. it has been the best in the whole world, actually, the whole of europe for many, many years, even long before the eu existed. i see no reason why it could change. pass porting is very imprisoned for the citizens. we are pushing for it, and i'm confident that we will be able to get at. >> is that when you are telling banks in london that are concerned about the loss of past porting rights? upesh: everything is still
for negotiation. we just started the process. that is why we are pushing for london to have a seat on the negotiation table through which we will have a voice to can underline the fact how pass porting is important. be? at will london's role i know you in the mayor have talked about the need for london to be at the table, but will london be at the table? rajesh: that is what we are hoping for. gdp.n has 25% of the we pay one third of all of the taxes in the u.k. we have every reason to actually have a voice and not just a voice but a strong seat on the table, through which we will be able to protect the interests of london. >> that is what business is telling you. what is central business -- central government saying? going in with passporting, the
essential message? rajesh: we have been highlighting that since the referendum days. the last three weeks, i been speaking to many businesses in the city. two or three things emerge constantly. number one is they want continued access to the single market. number two, they want to keep their passporting rights. passporting goes both ways. there are a lot of banks and financial service firms from europe who were also working in the u.k., and there are a lot from the u.s., because it is such a global hub. thenumber third thing is extra talent pool, one of the reasons why london is such a great city is that it attracts the best and brightest around the world. of immigrants, 40% of the people who live and work in london were actually born outside of the u.k. so that talent pool is under the reckonings.
>> those are the numbers businesses give you, but what about central government? do they want to go into mass with those messages? rajesh: the message is we will fight for all of the businesses. i do hope the central government is receptive to those, because you know, if london wins, the whole of the country wins. >> how have conversations with central government to been doing already? we know the mayor is reading with secretary david. are they agreeing on the creek -- key criteria? rajesh: we are still in talks. i cannot get more details, but we have been in touch. we have highlighted the importance of things that businesses want. one thing we agree on is that we have to keep business interest at heart. suggested the u.k. financial services get some kind of equivalent rating from the
eu, that would be a way for u.k. financial service companies to keep selling into europe. might that be one of the solutions or is it too early? rajesh: i think it is very early. there is still a lot to go. article 50 has not even been called yet. there are a thousand ways just like here. it is an interest of the u.k. but also europe to actually strike a good deal. , why don'tht suggest we cut our losses? passporting for big financial services like banks, but singled market services was not working like single market goods. instead of brexit conversations, we could be trying to sell to the rest of the word, -- world, building relations with the commonwealth, for example. rajesh: we should do it all. there is no reason why we should choose one or the other. we can focus on financial
service industry is around to this country and the city. london has been a financial hub for many, many years. my background is in foreign exchange trading. this is half of all of the fx trading in london. so why should remove the status of being a financial capital of the world? mark: the mayor deputy of business with anna edwards here on bloomberg television. ahead on bloomberg markets, the european close, giant earnings missed for shell. ♪
the company's lowest earnings quarterly in 11 years. profit falling $1 billion. a morbid picture also from france's total, beating animate -- estimates. i want to bring in the energy minister. why such a big miss for shell? of three a combination things, low oil and gas prices of course, a giant refining business in common with all of the big oil companies has fallen as well. and the most important like canada with the big fires in the second quarter and nigeria were there was violence, and that has a fall in yes production. -- gas production. i think they would expect production to come back. the outlook for the reclining in the next quarter is not terrific .
the big problem shell has now is the debt is rising fast. the bought a lot this year. they are paying dividends, it gearing a measure of debt to dividends. this will be hard to avoid areas mark: this is 20% of the global lng market. whenever going to find -- when are we going to find the benefits? will: the biggest benefits will be lower oil prices, which are taking through lng, dragging down earnings. it will happen. a do control a huge amount of production, a lot of trading, a lot of shipping, and in the years ahead, that will produce cash profit. it is taking time. ,ark: the refining on our radar and the wonderful bloomberg charts showing this, the biggest refiner is total. we had a beat. explain why it beat and how this
refining business is doing. will: if refining business is the biggest in europe, it will face declining margins. there are two reasons why it did well. one, it has a strong pipeline production. in contrast to shell, it is growing fast, five cents higher than a year ago. that means more cash. and they have been successful in driving bankruptcy out of target. annualion out of the total. he has more than exceeded that. that is why he did better. shell, we get the trend. , shall index onto look forward to. really worrying thing is when we came into this earnings season, we thought this would be the best order this year.
the second half looks really absent. no one is seeing oil prices recovering right now. they will continue to decline. we will see refiner's cut back production because the glut of gasoline is so big. as we get into 2017, the big question for shell is, are they going to be up to defend those dividends? energy, -- editor of now it is 4:26. look at european markets. we are four minutes away from the close on this thursday equity session. down the first day for 30 companies. i can't even say it, earnings on the stoxx 600 today, closing minutes away. ♪
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the action. stocks look like they will close lower. in weiser's have their eye on the stoxx 600 please earnings today, one of the busiest of the quarter. groups rising.ry adidas, raising his forecast after receiving a dual boost from the football tournament and bringing a payment to a sponsorship deal with chelsea football club. kind of a bit of a resurgence. he hands over the reins to his which happens this winter. this is the fourth time adidas has increased its forecast this year, shares up 2.7% today. let's go to bmw. cut inesake hosted profits.
it fell short would be ballooning fallout of the emissions scandal. it is trying to revamp before the emissions scandal took place , vital to the success of the company. the brand had to spend more money to their customers away -- to lure customers in the wake of the scandal. check out sabmiller, a.b. end 400 millionnbev of dollar takeover. they suspended integration of the two brewers, forming resistance from shareholders who have not been compensated enough of the recent pledge. on the most. this,uing to work on sabmiller not walking away. they want to review and improve v. offer from ab inbe
finishing the day down by 1.3%. what are you looking at? vonnie: we have the bank of japan tomorrow, we may hear what will happen with the ¥28 trillion packets. that actual spending is only a quarter of that. 104.80, giving back some of the ground. and down $42 a barrel oil. the 10 year yield, 70 basis points following the federal reserve opening committee. a statement that was slightly more hawkish, forcing yields to be a little heavier, then this 02 -- 0.2. let's look at the broader averages. the dow is down four points, the nasdaqn 0.2%, and the
pretty much unchanged, but i am sure abigail who is at the nasdaq has little stories to tell us. there is lots going on. reporter: it is surprising we don't have the nasdaq up more than just slightly, modestly. i say this because facebook, one of the biggest members, put out afterr monster quarter the close. those shares are higher at this ,oint, up 1.8%, a record high well off the highs. gained degrees. as for the quarter, another big beat. facebook beat earnings 18%, revenue 7%, which represents gained degrees. 184% and 59% growth year-over-year respectively. this, thishan said morning, said facebook is
fantastic. bullish on the shares of facebook. he has $155 price target, but an analyst at manas crespi who spoke to our team yesterday, he has downgraded the shares of facebook to a neutral from a buy. this could be why the stock is lower. he e-mailed our team this morning, saying this is a true move to the sidelines. he is not bearish. he thinks facebook is fairly valued at the old price target of $130 per share. but wassome nuances, analysts have a buyer on the stock. tell us about oracle, $9 billion up. abigail: it is a big deal. oracle has agreed to buy netsuite in a $19.3 billion deal. the strategy is to put oracle more squarely in the cloud space , in the customer relationship
management space, to complete work effectively against microsoft and salesforce.com. looking for something interesting, brandon barnicle says this is what will see a lot more of in the states. he named specific retails for sports.com and adobe among others. we may have some word big deals i had. vonnie:. thanks. let's check in with corny collins. theresa may is back on the road today seeking allies. she is traveling to slovakia and poland, both countries skeptical of assets of the membership. ofdreds of thousands citizens are dependent on jobs in the u.k.. the former prime minister of finland said negotiates and have just begun. >> peoples are looking at the
nitty-gritty, but as an eu member, i can tell you this is going to become located. we are talking over 100,000 pages of secondary legislation. we are talking about commitments on the legal side, which go very deep. it is going to be a long, long process. stubs said the eu usually goes through three stages. they are seeking a suboptimal solution. surprise increase in this month, a sign the brexit vote may have a muted impact on growth. they printed confidence would fall in the euro. spain's king will try to end the seven-month long political limbo. is acting prime minister trying to win the support he needs to stay in power. he's meeting with the king, who is meeting with the other major party leaders. if there is no agreement, spain could be forced to hold a third
round of elections. critics of venezuela's president marched through the streets of caracas, demanding that are -- better recall. they want to certify signatures on a recall decision. is tryialist government to hold onto power in the midst of an economic collapse. day hourws 24 hours a by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney collins, this is bloomberg. mark: three big banks out with better than estimated earnings. credit suisse, lloyds all falling. they struggle to boost revenue. joining us now, michael moore who covers the european banks across. looking at the stoxx 600 think index, second worst for lloyds. why did all of the shares decline when all three beat?
michael: it was a tale of lowered expectations. thoseeat slightly against lowered expectations, but there is still issues across the board. credit suisse is off 1%, lloyds under 10%. lloyds talks about some capital hit from brexit, from the drop in the pound. going forward, potentially slower growth. that got people concerned about the dividends, and the dividends continued growth. you have seen an income in stock. if you don't have consistent growth in the dividend, then -- mark: it is one of the reasons why it has outperformed given the like of barclays. that's go back to credit suisse. that was an on expected profit division, can to beating to the earnings. seems, manyase it as well.
we had turnaround bearing fruit. side of theone ledger, it is. on the cost and capital side, it is starting to make progress. we talked about it being a first step, but they are cutting the .bsolute cost capital did go up. on the revenue side, it is a tough picture. trading revenue down across the board, where is in the u.s. you sign up. .- saw it up you cannot cut forever. you will have to have some kind revenue rebound. vonnie: what will we learn from the stress test results tomorrow? michael: i think certainly the telling banks will be under the microscope, how they perform under it. deutsche bank as well. there is no pass fail, it is in the capital widens, the regulators give to the bank. theapital guidance regulators give to the bank. there is no action to take from
it, but we are expecting to see how they perform in the crisis and what the banks come out and say in reaction to those numbers. whether they will talk about the actually have already taken to boost capital and whether they will say something or forward-looking. michael: what about -- what about the brexit impact? what it would take away from ceo comments and conference calls about whether they are planning to make new headquarters in certain cases? michael: a lot of taken away and see approach. but is what john cryan was saying yesterday, it depends on what clients want. -- the ceo of credit suisse as well. you can talk about the economic seeing itu are
affected on the capital side. there is a number of different ways it is affecting the banks, but right now it is out of their hands. it is in the politicians' hands, so they are kind of at a standstill. mark: you alluded to this gap between the debt trading revenue we witnessed among the big u.s. players and the releases we have seen so far from deutsche bank and credit suisse. why have the big ones in the u.s. outperformed when it comes to trading revenue? , deutsche bankk talked a little bit yesterday about the difference between the u.s. and european markets, the u.s. being stronger. a good saw there was trading quarter at least on the debt side. it is unclear how much that was geographic and how much was just the amount of negativity around credit suisse, around deutsche
bank, whether clients decided to take a step back. john cryan to -- john cryan at deutsche bank said it was unsettled by the amount of capital questions around deutsche bank, and that they are trying to re-convince clients. so that may have an impact. mark: thank you for joining us, michael moore talking about the bank earnings today. talking about the brexit vote next. we'll hear from the chief executive about how currency shift away from this. ♪
mark: live from london and new york, i am mark argent. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. this is the european close. earnings fell short of estimates. the for your profit target at risk. with fordr spoke president and ceo mark shields and asked him what impact the brexit would have on the company. >> the u.k. is our largest business. it represents 30% of our sales. so this year, the good news is
we are fully hedged. we did take in the second year, we arehis about 60% next year. hedged against the balance sheet, so a lower pound it profits for about $2 million. remainder of the year, our view is that the industry will come down. so in total for this year, probably about $200 million. the ongoing basis, until the u.k. and the european union figure out what their trading relationship is, could be anywhere from $400 million to $500 million depending on what happens to that market. it could be volume. what is set to happen between the eu and the u.k.? >> they have to start the process, and that will not start until the end of this year. they have two years to do it. it is not only trying to put scenarios together around what
we think the trading relationship will be but what timeframe. they have to figure out those things as well. as it stands right now, we are not making any changes to the operating structure that we have already implemented, but we will always stay focused on making sure that we maintain competitiveness in the region and for ourselves on a path of sustained profitability. matt: are there plans you say, hang on a second, let's see how this goes before we make that investment or make that sales move? >> it is more longer-range. matt: the interesting thing, i was talking to bob shanks, and he said south america as problematic as it is for you and the whole industry, could be one of the ways were you offset problems elsewhere, because it can only get better, basically. >> when you look at south america and brazil in particular, the economy is under a lot of pressure.
we are seeing officer -- markets like argentina or the government has come in, we have taken good actions. a little pain in the short term for long-term benefit for the country. that will be dependent a little bit on the commodity cycle. those economies, particularly to whatare so tethered happens in the commodities cycle. we are starting to see it commodities start to inch up. that is one of the risks we are trying to offset in the second half of this year, the third quarter. matt: how much of a risk is donald trump? he was talking about ford's production in mexico and saying, tariffs that he was to put on the company could be as high as 35%. >> we talk with both campaigns to emphasize the importance of manufacturing, emphasize the global trade, emphasize the importance of making sure there is currency discipline so nobody is taking advantage of that unfairly in different countries around the world. matt: do you feel like someone
is manipulating the currency? >> when you look across the world, we are against tpp not because we are against free trade -- we have been free traders forever, but when you look at countries like japan, they have done that in the past. we just want to make sure we are competing on a level playing field. vonnie: that was matt miller talking to ford ceo mark fields. and theresa may are two of the most influential women in europe right now. they are both under pressure to defend their policies. ♪
stories in the news right now. shares of adidas rising to the highest in more than 20 years. the german sporting goods company raised its forecast this year, the fourth time it has done so this year. sales were up 21% in the second quarter, twice what i keep posted in its most recent quarter. nike posted in its most recent quarter. this fast food chain lost 5000 jobs by the end of next year. like stone would invest $360 million in the u.k. to increase capacity to make biologic medicine for the company, the biggest british drugmaker. latest bloomberg business flash. finland primermer minister was here earlier today. francine lacqua asked him what
the mood was like in the you -- in the eu. >> i think the first mood was a mood of shock, people frustrated and in on and could not believe it would happen. his like washington dc and trump being elected. it is kind of what happened. at the end of the day, the eu goes through three phases. the first phase is crisis. that is what happened when brexit came along. the second is chaos, what we saw with the market and current the, a little bit with the union of the united kingdom and the isties, and the third phase suboptimal solution. i think what we are looking at is some kind of a suboptimal solution. what are you hearing? what will the final model actually look like with relations? >> it is difficult to say.
you have to take these things step-by-step. it is the first time a big country is about to exit the european union. it is very much a 1952 moment communityoal or steel was established or when the cold war ended. this is huge. there is no denying it. now we are seeing trying to figure out the process. theresa may has nominated three key people, brexiters to deal with the negotiations. you caught this, so you deal with it. boris johnson, and david davis. the european commission has nominated a former foreign and commissioner of france studio with negotiations. now people -- to deal with the negotiations. this will bee complicated. we are talking over 100,000 pages of secondary legislation.
we are talking about commitments on the legal side which go very deep. so it is going to be a long process. what we get at the end of the day, i don't know. of: you spoke in the summer 2016 i may be trump politics, is vladimir putin. you are from finland, where there is a unique relationship to the east. give us an update on mr. putin and political europe. bit in i mean, he is a the background in many ways. if your member in the cold war presented -- it might be the end of history, everyone would be liberal democracy. you'll did not go that far -- yeltsin did not go that far. but it is a rather centralized regime. i would imagine if i was vladimir putin, i would look at
this with a spark in the eye and think about, what is going on? we have trump in the u.s., france,marine le pen in fielders in the netherlands, so what i would call antidemocratic forces coming along. putin is looking at this and thinking, you europeans, you deal with your mess. mark: finland former prime minister speaking on bloomberg surveillance. that is the end of the show. take a look at where european markets and are. -- ended. it was a decline for investors, chewing through a whole load of earnings and awaiting the european bank stress test results. ♪ e
>> from bloomberg world headquarters, good afternoon. we are covering stories from san francisco, detroit, and tokyo. stock markets crept lower while the dollar remains good. a mixed bag of corporate earnings. in philadelphia, president obama voting for hillary clinton. trying to elevate her as the leader at a time when national security concerns are front and center. amanda: wall street is raving giants,cebook, to amazon and delve a bit. -- alphabet. scarlet: let's head over to the markets desk where julie hyman is tracking the mood.