tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg July 29, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EDT
bloomberg television. ♪ vonnie: we are in new york and london for the next hour covering stories in san francisco and tokyo. 30 minutes into the trading day in new york. stocks fluctuate as u.s. gdp growth misses estimates. european shares going for the biggest monthly gain since october with science leading the way. mark: google in the cloud. u.s. tech earnings having their best earnings quarter. we will tell you what is driving the result. vonnie: the earnings reports continues with ups missing estimates, benefiting from a surge in online shopping. , richl talk with the cfo
peretz. more data coming out. let's go to julie hyman. read onhe final consumer confidence from the university of michigan's index. 90.3.l from this is the final rating. the more important economic data point was gdp for last quarter expanding at 1.2%, less than projected. that affecting markets are early in the day. it seems like investors are focusing on individual companies .nd earning reports the nasdaq touching its highest rating level on an intraday basis that we have seen before falling back. the losers putting pressure on stocks, exxon mobil coming out with earnings missing estimates. .efining margins plunged 30%
chevron falling after its third consecutive loss. cigna cutting the second quarter earnings, well short of estimates. they're saying losses and a weakness in particular in the disability business. disability business through employers has been weak. we have strength in tech names, in particular out for that and amazon. both beat estimates. amazon showing profit and profitability in the web services segment. our hope that showing strength in other businesses, the nonsearch businesses. merc coming out was strength on the diabetes drug. they are paring some of their earlier advances. let's talk about oil. here is oil for july, down 16%,
the worst month since last july. it is close to reentering a bear market, down 20%. down for the seventh-straight session. we haven't seen that since january when we saw oil having the big slide to start the year. mark: we are up for the fourth day in five and a third consecutive week, the longest months.streak in two the gain the biggest since october. look at who is leading. thanks hit hardest as a sector down 25%. let's start with ups. beating estimates, setting it is on track to cut by 2.1 billion swiss francs through 2017. the chief executive remains cautious say that there is very little visibility, to use his words. barclays, shares of 9% with the biggest rise since 2012.
profits fell greater than expected, 53%. shares gaining, fixed income outperforming european rivals. they say the noncall unit will weigh less on profit in 27 teen. pointing to a increase in spending -- drop in spending and increase in capital. of the u.k. lenders have fared since the u.k. referendum. they are off of the lows and the hsbc low, up by 8%. the rebound in barclays shares is helping it to wipe away some losses. since the referendum, it is down by 16%. ba, second quarter profits falling by 8%. anher costs offsetting improvement in earnings. torres,f executive, mr.
looking to accelerate the technological transformation while investing in financial technology companies. shares are up by 2.5%. let's go to the first word news. the latest from our newsroom in new york. >> hillary clinton warns that when donald trump says that he alone can solve america's problems, alarm those should ring. last night, clinton accepted the nomination for president saying that any man who can be baited with a tweet cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons. clinton says it will take more than one person to make america great. let's be stronger together, my fellow americans. let's look to the future with courage and confidence. better tomorrow for our beloved children and beloved country.
when we do, america will be greater than ever. >> clinton and running mate tim kaine are hitting the road to campaign in pennsylvania and ohio. the fbi investigating another possible breach of the democratic political organization by russian hackers. the same group to heinz at the dnc hack might be responsible for a cyber attack against the ,emocratic campaign committee according to reports from multiple media outlets. the special envoy for syria is urging russia to complete core idors to ther united nations and its partners. this after they say they would corridorsitarian outside of aleppo for fighters wanting to surrender. pope francis paid a somber visit auschwitz.
he is the third consecutive pontiff to make the pilgrimage to the place where adolf hitler's forces killed more than one million people, most of them jews. news, 24 hours a day, powered by journalists in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. getting back to the markets, stocks on track to end in the green. in july.ore than 3% for more on where equities have been and where they are headed, .et's bring in dani burger we were speaking last week about equities going higher, but it may not be a pretty month. dani: this is when we hit a new high on july 14. we have gone basically nowhere. there is a point to be concerned with august. investors do not know which way
we will go. we had positive data bringing us to the high. we knew the fed would not move. they didn't. we have the question, what will it take to get us to the next high or the next low? there are a lot of factors going both ways, giving us a mixed economic picture. vonnie: this part in my bloomberg, it is courtesy of dani, explain it. it is an 8-day oscillation chart. dani: it is the longest ever since data going back to 1927. the bar at the end shows the past 10-days we have had consecutive moves back and fourth no greater than .5%. it shows that we are in an indecisive moment. .t goes up and down we had strong earnings, and
investors say come expectations were down so much that you cannot be too positive. there are sectors showing strength. lot of goodad a earnings. amazon and google doing well. tech is in the best earnings stretch since 2008. there are bright spots in the confusion. now, it is hard to getting a grasp on the macro environment. mark: you have written a great piece telling us how active fund managers are having a rough time . you put forward the view and asked the question, is it too complicated? our markets to complicated for active fund managers? be fundamentalld managers that would disagree that it is too complicated for .hem valuations are very high, we are not moving very much. you have to say, where can i be making money? many point to quantitative strategies.
that is where you do factor in investing in value and momentum. some fundamental managers fall in love with stocks, get to know a company, pick that. they learn in this environment what is moving it may not be the company itself. it might be quantitative strategies. they had to reassess their strategies for picking stock. mark: thank you. dani burger of bloomberg news. coming up, we will stay on the markets. it has been a global earnings bonanza. we will drill down on earnings from amazon and out for that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ vonnie: live from london and new york time vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. you are watching bloomberg "bloomberg markets" on bloomberg television. where are investors looking in the low rate environment. shared in an was exclusive interview with anna edwards and caroline hyde. across a broad range of markets with different styles. we will keep adding teams and keep trying to diversify the offerings for clients when we find to good ways of making money. the noise around the brexit will not change that in any particular way. of the, over the course next six months, we have political events which may create volatility for bonds and equities. that will be interesting to trade, i think. >> you keep talking about
diversification. the most ripe opportunities to diversify? where our clients clamoring to get into for more exposure to? over theing i learned years is that if you invest in something which looks like a good market segment but has a bad management team or an average bond management team, you do not make money. up you need excellent bond management. we look for the best management we can find. when you look at the firm, there are three basic ways to make money. value. we understand value. and one of the key ways of making money and we have it well covered. the third is kerry. a lot of clients are interested in cary. carry.rested in
>> what are the challenges -- one big phenomena and that markets are dealing with his questioning the status quo and incredibly low interest rates. how much risk appetite to clients have? you mentioned interest in various products, but what is the risk appetite? >> clients are trying to find ways of making money. there is more realization that if you have low bond yields, you're not making money out of bonds. they are low because they have low growth rates. that means equity will be low. people are looking at other ways to make money. i do not know if he would call it risk appetite, but the creativity appetite is very high. is your best suggestion for a creative strategy? >> our products. i do not want to talk about one
product or the other, but people are looking at emerging markets pretty hard, after they have been out of favor. europe looks uncertain. the u.s. is at high is, then we have the election. the conversations about emerging markets on the debt and equity side are higher. vonnie: luke ellis speaking exclusively on bloomberg. news, u.s. corporate shares of amazon of 1.2%. our for that as well. they are rising after reporting earnings -- out for that -- alphabet rising as well after reporting earnings that beat estimates. amazon dominated in getting revenue from the cloud. how long does that story continue? >> we are seeing amazon web services, which i say is the most important company in technology right now, amazon web
yearces is glowing at 56% over just as importantly, -- 38%. so close. 58%. so close. it is still becoming a massive business. 9.5 percent of overall sales. 56% of profits. the result is a strong business that is growing. it is sticky. customers stay there when they have services on amazon. it is changing the world of technology. it is important because what is happening is that companies are turning over computer stores to amazon and not buying from other companies. the pain at hewlett-packard, unit, and other companies, the pain is driven by amazon.
vonnie: and white box storage, if you have storage with amazon, why not stay with them? cory: and they are going up to offer lots of things. thousands of things in terms of what computers and computing can do for companies. $2.9 billion in sales this quarter. habet out for that -- alp beat earnings. what will ultimately take the place of the ad business? seen a dramatic transformation at google. -- increasingly it is about mobile and video and video ads. some of the success of alphabet was success at youtube. they had strong numbers in the quarter. they talked about it on the call. it resulted in the offer of new units, particularly in mobile. it is accelerating revenue
growth. google is not only getting big, faster.er that might not continue. comparisons to last year are getting tougher. they see this as progress that google is making. a great dramatic rise on the ds withof clicks on a money flowing from advertisers to google. you, cory johnson, talking about amazon and alphabet. coming up, the dive into the etf market. how does the earning seasons affect etf? this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: i am vonnie quinn in new york. time for the bloomberg's nest flash, looking at the biggest stories in the news. thirdn posted its straight loss. sales keeping pace with slowing supplies. chevron ceo responded to the market driven cash squeeze by shrinking drilling programs and firing 1/10 of the workforce. tosing five million dollars $10 million from asset sales. fo -- federal regulators putting more pressure on wall street banks. new guidelines were issued three years ago. tankers are being questioned about loans, such as acceptable's. regulators want to sue know how loans perform under adverse conditions. businessour bloomberg flash. time for the etf friday segment. let's go to julie hyman.
julie: i asked if we could look at etf's affected by earning season, since we are in the thick of it. he delivered. let's talk about the vanguard total stock market etf. some are affected by earning seasons, some not so much. this is in the not so much category? >> it is layered. do earnings affect etf? the vanguard total market covers 98% of the stock market. 3600 stocks. they are the lifeblood of the stock market. in etf's like this, you are saying, i want to buy all earnings. i do not want to play earnings. this is the way people are investing. bti is one of the fastest growing etf's. looking atearch tech which generations are using different etf's. this is cross this generation.
looking at the share class of the vanguard total index fund, which is closing in on half $1 trillion in size, double the biggest etf in the world. in testers are saying, i will not try to play earnings or hire someone to play earnings -- an active manager -- i will buy the stock market, benefit from all of the earnings, and diversify away my risk. that is what we are seeing. that is how earnings matter and doubt. julie: we have seen the broad stock market does tend to rise during the earnings reporting season, more or less. eric: the etf would give you that rise. remember, if you call a good earnings report come you make , you get thatin return. in a diversified etf, you get also asmall taste -- but
small taste of the downturn if that is a miss. julie: what about etf's that are sector driven? particularly if they are supposed to do better or worse during earnings season? eric: the word is concentration. if you look at financials etf, jp morgan, wells fargo -- 5 of the portfolio. their earnings are major. people will use sector etf's around earnings. a long-term of investment, but sector etf's are worth where you see that. we have seen earnings from the bank stocks. i get asked what is the etf with the most exposure, it is the first trust internet etf. it is facebook, google -- it is the ticker. it is the third largest tech etf. julie: i love that you described
and etf as a stud. that is awesome. the wisdom tree earnings 500 fund. eric: negative smart beta saying if you like earnings as a metric, we will tilt the entire etf to earnings. i've hundred s&p stocks ranke d by earnings. you have market exposure with a tilt toward market earnings. that is smart beta saying let's take fundamental metrics and make etf tilt toward those metrics. julie: thank you. vonnie: thank you julie and eric balchunas. looking at the bank of japan policy decisions, this is bloomberg. ♪
elisa has the details. >> republican presidential nominee donald trump wasted little time responding to hillary clinton's speech at the democratic national convention. in a series of 2003, he attacked clinton for being soft on terror and refusing to say the words "radical islam." trumbo said a clinton white house would have corruption and "no borders no, jobs, no safety." the u.s. military will return almost 10,000 acres of land to okinawa to japan. that's the biggest handback of land since the island verted back to japan in 1972. it is 17% of u.s. holdings on okinawa. there are 25,000 american troops there. oak in a wants complain about the u.s. presence. u.s. intelligence and military officials warn that turkey's ost-cue purge may hurt counter-terrorism. they say it is sweeping up u.s.
allies and contacts in turkey and they expect not make coordination more difficult. several thousand people have been purged from the turkish ilitary and security services. this is bloomberg. vonnie? vonnie: thanks. mark, sending it over to you in london. mark: yes, history, bonnie, made in philadelphia last night. hillary clinton becoming the first woman to be chosen by a major u.s. political party after accepting the nomination. earlier on "bloomberg surveillance," tom keene asked
mark halprin how hillary carries her message forward. >> they go on a bus trip to western pennsylvania, a battleground that trump has staked claim on and says he's oing to win the state. they will settled down. my guess is clinton will be from anywhere plus seven to minus three. and that's a pretty big range and it will leave both parties feel like they can win it as we head towards the strange period in august. a lot of americans are going to be paying attention in politics and the next time we will see the kind of engagement is after labor day where there will be a major focus on race. >> how many undecided measures are will? -- americans are there? i can't get a straight answer out there. >> there will be more undecided
because we're dealing with two candidates that are not particularly well liked. and waiting to make up their mind and of course the undecideds are a big deal and so does turnout. you saw both conventions focused on energizing the base of their own party as opposed to reach the undecideds because the winners winners will be determined did not who sways more undecides but support thers who are decided to vote. vonnie: are the u.s. polls different? should we trust them? > depends on the poll. the matter of the polls in 12 or so battleground states like pennsylvania that are going to decide the outcome and you got to do the normal things in looking at data. make sure you're looking at quality inputs. what's the record of the pollsters doing in the polling
and what kind of methology are they using? you're going to see a lot of discussions on the polls. you want to look at quality knolls states like pennsylvania here but an important state like florida, virginia, and ohio. >> as we try and figure out at least here in europe why hillary clinton is not loved that much by americans, there's a very clear loss in transition that she can't translate her policy in expertise into a vision. was she strong yesterday and is this the new hillary clinton? was she clear and direct in what she said? >> the convention overall was a success in achieving its goals. i thought her peach last night was fine. but if the goal was to revolutionize americans' conceptions of her to focus on her record of public service, focus more on the idea she's laid out, focus less on the personality traits that lot of americans don't like, i don't think her speech or the convention overall made a
particularly head way in those. and that leaves as suggested before, that leaves the race largely unchanged after the two conventions from where it was before. >> mark, how does mr. trump adapt? is he going to start listen to anybody or tweet every five minutes? >> i'm in the camp that says if you're waiting for trump to change, you're going to be waiting a good long time. he will continue to do what he wants to do. >> is the real lasting damage to the last two or three days on mr. trump, mr. putin in a general statement, russia? >> i don't think there's lasting damage but i think it's undermined confidence that some republicans would like to have that their nominee is not going to compound his errors. it got him in the news during the democratic convention and a lot of people suspect that may have been part of trump's game here. but i've said for the last couple of days. i know that are soccer scommoms millennials and voting groups.
i've not met a lot of pro putin oters. >> what is the battleground state? what's the state you care most about? mark: ohio, which nice surprise. you want to pick one state and say tell me which state will win and it's ohio. any republican will have an upheld fight. for trump to win, he's going to have to win ohio, pennsylvania and florida. and so again, you want to look at can clinton win any one of those three? if she does, she's probably going to be the next president. vonnie: that was earlier on "bloomberg surveillance." the bank of japan announces it's keeping is monetary policy unchanged. it did expand e.t.f. by the .quivalent of $26 ball year
it is a decision meant to shore up confidence following volatility in financial markets. but let's bring in michael mcdonagh. we certainly saw 10-year yields go from -- let's just say 10 asis point move. mike: if you were government official, what you would be worried about is the move and the yen. so i think that you saw a bit of appreciation that it went from 103 to 102 handle. that's concerning which when you consider the data we got from the u.s., it doesn't look lie the fed is going to be raising rates. that could put more pressure on the yen. vonnie: that would have been worrisome. they didn't want the yen to
strengthen. it reversd some of its strengthening and now all of that's gone away. did the market jump the government and the ministry and the bank of japan by making the speech the other day? michael: yeah, i think the bank of japan has a gun to their head. and they got a point where no matter what they did, excluding announcing some form of helicopter money, the market wasn't going to be happy. so they decided to step back, take the blow. we're going to rethink what we're doing with our own balance heet and see what happens. mark: i've got some breaking news. i'll come back to you from s.a.b. miller saga. it is said to set to recommend an improved offer. it's been quite a week because s.a.b. froze all contact with a.b.i. following the raising of its offer, casting doubts the deal will happen.
hearing from shareholders signaling support for the deal. sab miller that's a look at what the stock reaction is. the plot continues to thicken. s.a.b. miller set to recommend a deal. michael, let's get back to the b.o.j. it wasn't about the b.o.j. there was a whole host of data coming out of japan and inflation is still negative. the b.o.j. admits there are some risks to achieving the 2% target in a couple of year's time. does anyone have faith that the b.o.j. will hits target? >> the b.o.j. does but i don't know outside of that. in japan, you have a house
that's crumbling and they're putting a new coat of paint on it. they're not doing any of the structural reforms. not putting support beams and in the long run, it's worrisome. mark: it all sounds so simple. and that structural reform. why hasn't it taken place? why its so difficult? michael: it's real easy to borrow and spend money and it's harder to pay for things. the thing that worries me the most when i look at japan t not just the debt load. it's not how much they're paying the debt t the demographic situation. people laugh when i say this but it's not funny. there are more adult diapers sold in japan than baby diapers and that's not going to change any time soon. that means off lot of people who are just consuming. they're not consuming and producing. and when you have that many old
people, you need a lot more young people to not work to take care of them. it's a very bad situation. vonnie: michael, this is my own chart that i made up of the japanese curve. you can see here out to have a year is the yields are negative. does it really matter how much debt japan carries? michael: the bank of japan is buying a lot of the debt which is helping to push that lower. what i like to lower or what i've been talking about recently is the bank of japan's balance sheet is the same size as the fed's balance sheet. the b.o.j.'s balance seat is about 80% of japan's b.o.j. if you have a balance sheet that is 80% of your g.o.p. and you can't get 2% of inflation, what's going to do it? maybe it is time to rethink but i don't know what they could possibly come up that would work. mark: thank you, michael.
s.a.b. miller is said to set to recommend a.b. inbev's improved. it's been quite a week. we had a.b. inbev raise its offer for s.a.b. miller and then we had of course, s.a.b. miller freezing all contact. today, china approving the deal. big shareholders coming out, backing the deal and it looks like the deal will be approved by s.a.b. miller. what a week it's been. shares in s.a.b. rising on top of that. this is "bloomberg markets."
today's topic, nuclear energy. the operating nuclear reacters produce about 11% of its wlictity. 53 more under construction in the u.k. and a fifth of the electricity comes from nuclear power. the government has ambitious expansion plans including construction of the world's biggest atomic stage. bloomberg news reporter join us. why does britain need this atomic blot? >> two reasons. its existing one is getting old and it needs to replace the pump. this is a huge plant. it could produce some electricity electricity, power five million homes. mark: will it definitely get built though? >> the answer today is different than yesterday. yesterday, e.d.s., the big french utility that's leading construction to this plant said it was wanting to go ahead with
the project. and it expected the government to say brilliant. let's have a party. let's sign the deal. didn't happen. the government said we want a couple more months months to think about this. we've got a new prime minister. we'll get back to you in september. vonnie: also the brexit vote outcome, does that impact anything about this going ahead? will: i think it's important context. obviously, the u.k. feeling its way through relationships with all of its european partners and a number of bilateral issues and this is a very important element of the anglo-french relationship. and enormous project. the $24 billion at stake just in construction ahead. so if this doesn't happen, the french are going to take it as bit of a snub and that may feed into other things to talk about like where the border is there. vonnie: right.
why is it so expensive? will: because nuclear power stations are one of the most complicated things to engineer. and this is huge. it powers five million homes. and it's probably the size of three giant coal plants and they have to be built with safety paramount. mark: what happens next? do we tweedle our thumbs and hopes the prime minister makes the decision? will: it's worth noting that there's opposition on the french side as well. trade unions are concerned about the e.d.s. financial health saying we don't want them spending money on this if it means losing jobs in france. so there's opposition on both sides of the channel which is why people are dubious or negative whether this project will happen. vonnie: bloomberg's will kennedy, thank you.
mark: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm mark barton in london. vonnie: and from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: a look at system of the biggest business stories in the news right now. exxonmobil posted the smallest profit since 1999. they said wildfires that ravaged the oil sands region of canada as well as aging wells hurt output. exxon's u.s. oil and natural gas lost an average of $5.6 million a day during the quarter.
they will agree to pay for new guinea focused glass explorer nto oil. stocks oil will buy brazil for $2.5 billion. these company's biggest acquisition since 2011. stat job oil will buy in the interest of 66% in the license. they may hold between 700 million barrels of oil. and federal regulators are putting more pressure on wall is now anks on bank being questioned about loans that just sneak it in as acceptable. regulators want to know how those lobes were performed under adverse conditions. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. vonnie? vonnie: the surge in-line help is giving a list to united postal service.
shares of the athletic based currier are lower but have seen a turnaround this year, climbing 11%. almost wiping out the stock's decline in 2015. for more, we are joined by c.f.o. in atlanta, richard peretz. thanks for joining us. a lot of uncertainty ahead regarding trade. we may have a new administration come november here in the u.s. and obviously, there have been a lot of developments already in europe. how do you plan for the next six months? how can you even gave forecast? richard: sure. you know when you think about the forecast side of it is we tend to look at some of the forecast and some things have soften but other things have also improved. and what i mean by that is the electronics sales numbers have conned to be forecasted to go a little heavier. and at the same time, you see the industrial side of it come down. so we put all that together and then we mix in there the initiatives that u.p.s. is doing
internally and with the investments we're making in this multi-year automation project that we talk about for our hubs and our drivers using something called ryon were able to put that together were comfortable to grow about five to nine percent. our earns per share up 8.5%. vonnie: are you continuing with planned investments and even begin the outcome of brexit in europe for example? richard: the short answer is absolutely. the u.k. is an important part of our network. and we also know that in the short term, there was a slight softening of growth rates because of brexit and the initial forecast. and we really don't know what's going to happen going forward but what we do know is u.p.s. operates in many countries around the world. everybody has different rules for how you do cross border movements. and so we're ready and once we understand better, we'll help our customers be ready. in fact, we have committed about
$5 billion in europe and the u.k. in investments over the next five years and we'll continue those and we've announced the largest investment in the u.k. in our history and we're still building that and we need that for our network. and it will continue to grow. so we feel real good about the u.k. and we'll make the adjustment that we need to. mark: richard, can we talk about free trade? obviously, it's a hot topic politically. i'm not going to ask you to talk politically but when it comes to the business, how important is free trade? what stats are you finding? richard: and you're right and i appreciate you asking my view of free trade and u.p.s. and where we stand because at the end of the day, what free trade does is actually creates opportunity. very time the u.s. as signed a free trade agreement, we see a 20% spike from the u.s. to that country. so what it's doing is small or medium size customers are able to participate in international
trade when free trade agreements are signed and we help them do that. the catalyst for global economies and bringing so many millions and more people to the economy have been because of free trade agreements. it's very important and it's incumbent upon business like u.p.s. and many others to make sure the other side of the story gets out. >> what more are you doing to position yourself in this area? richard: you're right. b to c is the one part of the economy that continues to grow faster. and we've put some capabilities in with things called access points and my choice where we're engaging the end user to make sure that we make this convenient and they have control of their delivers. on the other side, we're -- deliveries. the other side, we're thing technology things things like the o'brien program and that's all about making the network more efficient and being able to
deliver the goods. vonnie: you to some currency hedging. are you looking for a stronger u.s. dollar in the next six months? richard: you know, i think at the end right now where we see is the dollars probably range bound. you've seen it go about 1:10 and 1:expect. it was the high volatility back in 2015 this drive in the noise in the currencies right now because we did see a multi-year hedge strategy to protected profits and now it will come down. vonnie: u.p.s. c.f.o. richard peretz, thanks for joining us on "markets." mark: banks continue to report results. more breakdown in the thubs from barclays and u.b.s. the close is four minutes away. ♪
you are watching "european close" on "markets." [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. isit ncicap.org] mark: we're live in new york and london for the next hour covering stories in san francisco and milan. european stocks heading for their best month since october. u.s. shares seeing gains in july led by strong tech earnings. vonnie: european banks making a comeback. shares of barclays and u.b.s. rise even though profits fell in the last quarter. and all eyes will be on the bank of england's policy meeting next week trying to give the u.k. economy a boost in the wake of the brexit vote. mark: let's have a look at how european equities are trading. the power of the bloomberg