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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  August 3, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EDT

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♪ to the couch where you at? ♪ ♪ show me the latest medal count♪ ♪xfinity's where it's at. ♪ welcome to it all. comcast nbcuniversal is proud to bring you coverage of the rio olympic games. >> banking headwinds. today.ith earnings how any faring with increased regulations. rio tinto reported its worst profits since 2004. the future of the company sits on a new seals shoulder -- a new ceos shoulders. the reblican nominee tells investors to pull their money out of the stock market. president obama tells gop leaders to pull the support. ♪ francine: welcome to "the
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pulse." live from bloomberg's european headquarters. i am francine lacqua. we are getting a little bit of eurozone breaking data. this is a picture of eurozone services, pmi is to 2.9, a touch , because it is slightly better than expected. we were expecting 52.7. 53.2 instead of 52.9. that is better than expected despite that better-than-expected eurozone figure. they are holding off their losses. banks were the biggest decliners. aday, a lot of earnings -- little bit of pressure on the back of commodities. today, banks seem to be the bright spot. you can see the all of the that you can see the index gaining -- you can see the index gaining. pound 133. let's get to the bloomberg first
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word news with nejra cehic. nejra: after taking accounted for two months, global oil prices are set for a violent reversal upwards. andy hall is telling his investors. in a letter obtained by bloomberg news, hall says oil supply is getting to strength -- is beginning to shrink. donald trump said interest rates set by the federal reserve are inflating the stock market could he recommends holders get out of equities just like he did. in a phone interview with fox business, the nominee slammed what he called artificially low rates. the other is in the stock market is where it is because you get free money. he also said the market would do great if he was elected. bill gross has reiterated his warning on sovereign debt after he yields from the u.s. to australia touched an all-time low in the past month. the danger of the on president the rally is that any reversal
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will be painful for investors did he says sovereign bonds at record lows are not worth the risk. china is planning changes that will loosen curbs on trade in the futures market. that is according to people familiar with the matter. theould require approval in change is yet to make the final decision. decision sparked a 99% plunge in volume last summer. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. chariots. this is bloomberg -- i am nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: more word on the state of the world banks. profits jumped 45% in the second quarter. france's second-biggest bank, socgen, some profits up. we asked the companies deputy
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ceo about the uncertain environment for the industry. >> when the environment would be stabilized -- today the risks are still very high. the uncertainties are still very high. the brexit decision is creating an additional uncertainty in the environment. the global world growth has been revisited at the lower level than in the past. the rate could last very long. francine: joining us today on -- she is here with us for the hour. let's welcome jonathan tice who covers banks. mangini, the problem with the banks is there going through a tough environment. jonathan, what you make of the results. they could've been worse but they're not brexit. jonathan: a lot of banks are restructuring so a couple of
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mrs. or hits -- a couple of misses or hits does not matter. we're going to deliver on costs. positive business got -- they decided another by back. -- a lot ofbrazil things in it to do. the revenue environment remains horrible. and cost delivery is key. francine: banks like hsbc are cutting costs. how difficult is it to grow? you get have a strategy only built on cost-cutting. jonathan: they need to think about what they are doing to the franchise, cutting people. if you look at a lot of things, there and posting -- they are investing in growth areas. ing is one of the few banks relatively growing.
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you've got no idea on revenue at the moment. imagine being the manager trying to plan a cut. francine: this is a problem that we saw for long time. nine dini, overall, these negative rates, that is hurting banks. the regulation to one side. when do we see a recovery. when does the macro environment become not so punitive banks. >> oneig adjustment -- of the big challenges is there too many of them. there is a bank issue. in the u.s., there are 5000 plus taking institutions. cutenumber is extremely desk skewed. .hey put for for the eurozone for that amount of over banking, more banks in italy than pizzerias. until there is an adjustment, until there is a lessening of the glut, it going be hard for that top line to become the bottom line.
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francine: overall, can we see consolidation among some of the big banks. they look pretty cheap. this is the white line in this is compared to the general index. family doesn't want to take that much risk. that spain,e reason italy, germany, france have --rly poor profitability socially at the moment, socgen has a target to cut 27 branches. imagine the pressures not to put them out of work. there is a long-term issue but the profitability of italy, you've still got an incredibly unprofitable banking system. there is pain to be taken, unfortunate some point. you get a lot of lip service paying -- out of lipservice being paid. -- a lot of lipservice being paid. banks need the
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european economy to get better? nandini: the credit amount is still there. people want to show up at banks, take out a loan for a house, car, consumer loan. you're seeing the european -- strong but until that extra juice in the eurozone economy comes to say i want money, want to use it, the mix are going to have trouble with making sure that outlined is robust. francine: thank you so much, nandini ramakrishnan. jonathan tyce is back and will talk about deutsche bank, credit suisse stay with the pulse. as a rio tinto reports is worse profits, look at what the future holds. how is the most important sector of the k economy forming in the first month since the brexit vote? will bring you this we will bring you some breaking pmi numbers. -- we will bring you the
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breaking pmi numbers. will speak to the chief financial officer of continental . this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: this is the pulse. i am francine lacqua. let's get to bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic. nejra: rio tinto has reported its worst profit since 2004 as
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prices for iron or and copper eroded earnings. underlying profits fell 47% to $1.56 billion in six months to june. that missed analyst estimates. coming up at 1:20 p.m. we speak to the new ceo of rio tinto jean-sebastien jacques. -- axa says -- help offset claims from national catastrophes. france's bigs insureds souls that come -- assault not cap -- saw an income rise. tom barbie bell spoke exclusively to bloomberg. >> we are operating in a challenging environment with no interest rates. the key issue we have to take is one truly focus on getting our operating results stable and
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moving up in a difficult environment. at the same time, conforming the business. nejra: volkswagen has warned that industry demand in china will plunge in a tax cut that is due to expire at the end of the year is due to lapse. --to find a way the tax cut or whether the tax cut will be extended. the world's second-largest economy has been a bright spot for vw. reported --ole has beating analyst estimates. net income was 1.60 one billion euro up 6% from a year earlier. -- it's got afrom boost from its sale in visa europe. francine: lifted one banks. in -- emmys -- still
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with his jonathan tyce. jpmorganamakrishna at managed -- asset management. rbs was one of the worst performers did we cannot -- performers. its bank done 50% -- deutsche bank down 50%. is there anything that makes you think they are going to have better quarters from now one? >> good morning. there is always hope. the problem is a johnson was highlighting, [indiscernible] patience.ime, there will be more capital rates -- francine: in a year? or two years?
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environment.nomic how it shares out did it also depends on -- shares out. it depends on how the banks are able to raise fruitfully. execution is the name of the game francine: jonathan, we look at the bank stocks and i come on here sometimes and within five minutes the share price tanks and you don't understand why. and there are rumors. put should a sealed do to -- what should a ceo due to put it to rest? jonathan: the one thing is regulators signaling there isn't enough high-quality equity. currently when they give the steamrolling of a banks a bit of a break. that is fair to assume. mainly treatment of bad debts on balance sheets. provisions against the italian banks have clearly the best case at the moment.
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the hardest thing to understand is from here, the revenue pressures are still enormous. the stress tests don't make any sense. granted, banks did a great job of offsetting falling interest income. they get all of the free funding from ecb. it is hard to continue to manage the gap from here. italian banks have 40 billion of sovereign. the is ago, that was a no-brainer. you just wrote the curve. now, the fallout from that within revenue is crating problems that all the cost cuts cannot upset. francine: we always talk about brexit. that is kind of a shock to the system. it seems that the end of markets are mispricing they could be billed in. mandy nikos: it is a was a question of being cautious and realistic. how far we going to go before negotiations or some kind of bailey package? areeuropean commission trying to figure something out
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at all costs. that is not a cop risk at the moment. we are being selective. where not buy the ones that have the highest npl percentage. picking the right want to make sure we avoid the issues as they arrive. francine: how frail are these banks? >> is a different kind of risk. years areor many usually very little has been done for five to six years. there's been a lot of action this year in terms of legislation which i think are important because italian banks -- the nonperforming loans that it is the contract. -- the relation has been more skewed toward the banks.
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[indiscernible] we could see some significant reduction. let's be clear that is a five to 10 year rise. we can expect the problem to be solved with a magic wand by the end of the year. let's face it. >> the palin point, it is very interesting. clearly there -- the bail in point it is very interesting. bonds -- theytail do not want to have a deposit run in italy. -- we know in january, italy announced the game to effectively guarantee the securitization benchmark for the stuff. if we have good news on that, great. if my million that they said there -- the 5 billion they said they're going to raise is irrelevant. unicredit, and i've
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always been told that unicredit has a lot of healthy businesses they can sell that could hedge them. unicredit -- you have two propositions. unicredit, has come to the market with a big capital raise. unicredit is a company, bank under new leadership. it is basically [indiscernible] idea.k you have some unicredit to some extent is a badly managed institution nowadays. 20 or 30t need to be different market indices. [indiscernible] they can limit the cash flow for the shareholders. >> the management and possibilities for them to fix themselves as a good reminder for us in terms of speaking to
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our investors. we are very selective about which banks have the potential to fix this issue going forward, five or 10 years. if there is a possible magic wand, it is a nice reminder that when the market punishes the entire sector, you get italian banks at a ratio of 9.6%, that is very cheap. if you can to pick up the right one, there is potential for some gain. francine: thank you for a great conversation to get a started for wednesday morning. , jonathan tyce and nandini ramakrishnan sticks with us. we will be talking about currencies did be sure to steve -- currencies. -- sure tostick stick around for our interview -- that will be in the next hour on surveillance. up next, digging into profits and we talk mining with rio
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tinto's earnings and the outlook for the sector. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: rio tinto reporting its worst profits since 2004 as the prices for iron ore and copper eroded earnings. let's bring in our bloomberg -- is reporter, nandini
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also still with us. jesse, run us through rio tinto announced. it is ugly. jesse: it is ugly, the most profit underlying earnings since 2004 at it as been well flagged. the commodities index is well known. they have written a lot about it. the earnings number matches analyst alex smith -- analyst estimates. the company changed dividend policy to reflect this downturn. it is all very well planned. francine: they have a new ceo. you see these figures, do you have to change the strategy? d have to be more aggressive in cost cuts? -- do you have to be more aggressive in cost cuts? jesse: it is more about the man than the numbers. facing tooic we are
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many situations like this. the endless presentation coming up at 10:00. the indications about this morning, i interviewed him six weeks ago, very little change in the strategy unfortunately. it is about stripping up costs. selling less desirable assets. all to whether this downturn. francine: nandini, overall, growth -- these are huge industries that did great a decade ago. now they are basically setting anemic growth. nandini: when your next rector or a good company, the price of those goods are so low, it is very tricky no matter how much you improve your margins are cost-cutting. closer to thee end of the commodity bear market. a v-shaped rebound is going to be -- francine: this is a consolidated industry coverage of the once.
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jessica of the stress of m&a has been leaving for years and we have met seen it keep up. a few examples of more distressed companies that have been forced into m&a did we have seen that in europe. -- m&a. we have seen that in europe. m&a -- rio tinto is the big question on his lips. organic growth, what are the options? today we are going to build and smart by is the strategy. i would not expect anything big anytime soon. francine: will have a tv interview with him later on -- we will have a tv interview with him later on. also, how confident he is? jesse: he is a very charismatic individual. we'll want to hear more about that strategy, the iron ore business. francine: dividend. the way he says it will be important. jesse and nandini, thank you so much.
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nandini, stays with us. up next, how did the most important sector in the u.k. economy perform in the first month since the brexit vote? will bring you breaking pmi numbers -- we will bring you breaking pmi numbers. this is bloomberg. ♪ [hip hop beat]
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♪olympics 2016, let me get you on my level. ♪ so you never miss a moment, ♪ ♪miss a minute, miss a medal. ♪ ♪ why settle when you can have it all? ♪ ♪soccer to wrestling. track and field to basketball. ♪ fencing to cycling. diving to balance beam. ♪ ♪all you have to sa♪ ♪ is, "show me," and boom it's on the screen♪
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♪ from the bottom of the mat, ♪ ♪ to the couch where you at? ♪ ♪ show me the latest medal count♪ ♪xfinity's where it's at. ♪ welcome to it all. comcast nbcuniversal is proud to bring you coverage of the rio olympic games. welcome to "the pulse" here in london. we're just getting breaking news out of the u.k. this is pmi, gives us a good idea of what brexit means. the composite pmi falling to 47.5. a touch below estimates. anything below 50 means we are seeing a contraction. services pmi, that is the backbone of the u.k. gdp, falling to 47.4.
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get more on that. you can see the pound 1.3319. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. nejra: after taking a pounding for two months, oil prices are set for a reversal upwards, that is what andy hall is telling investors. in a letter, hall says that oil surprise are beginning to shrink, a cooler winter is likely to drive up demand. rates trump says interest set by the federal reserve are inflating the stock market and he recommends pension holders get out of equities just like he did. in a phone interview, the republican presidential nominee slammed what he called artificially low rates adding "the only reason the stock market is where it is is because you get free money. he also said the monkey would go great if he were elected. bond fund manager bill gross has
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reiterated his warning on sovereign debt after yields from the u.s. to australia touched all-time lows. the danger of the rally is that any reversal would be painful for investors. he says sovereign bonds that record most "aren't worth the risk." china is planning changes that on tradingosen curbs in the futures market. new rules would require approval and the exchange has yet to make final decisions on the details of the changes. the restrictions sparked a 99% plunge in vines last summer and concern over the government's intervention in markets. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine: now for more reaction to the composite u.k. pmi data, let's bring in our u.k. economy reporters.
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what does it tell us about the state of the u.k. economy? worse than expected by a touch but we are seeing a contraction. inwe're very much contraction territory. this is awful news, really, although not that surprising because we have this early flash estimate that they did because of brexit. we've already had a preview of these figures. we already know they are playing into policymakers and the bank of england's thinking. is ank this just, it little bit worse than expected but it plays into what we already thought. francine: service is really the backbone. that is where we saw the huge slump. lucy: that is really interesting because services are 3/4 of the u.k. economy, they are a huge deal. francine: what do you make of this? justroblem is that this is the beginning. bottom line -- are we going to see a recession and is it too early to say because it is july figures?
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mr. messina nandini: this was right after the news of the referendum result. some surveys may have been done when people didn't realize we had a government. i do think we will see more stabilization a bit higher. i do not think we are going about 50 but these might be some of the lower numbers we will see this year. francine: investment will pick up? there was a shock, david kamman resigns, i do not know what to do. and slowly that confidence could pick up? nandini: within the subsection of the pmi, there is employment, new orders for goods. when you just hear the news of the referendum results you think, i'm not going to order anything because it is all going to pieces. but as we start, even today, we are feeling a bit more, i do not know if normal is the right word, or the impending brexit has become part of our reality,
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perhaps you get a bit more bump in those numbers. francine: he said a critical word impending. we have not even trickled article 50. you have not mentioned article 50. article 50 will be invoked. whether that is end of this year beginning of next year, we will keep in tune to the political side of things. has notfact is brexit happened. legally we are still in the same position we were in pre-june 23rd. i think the shock in these pmi numbers. let's watch and see what kind of adjustments they take in terms of services. that is the biggest part of the u.k. economy. have to watch that more closely than manufacturing, especially since manufacturing may be more sensitive. francine: and we have the boe tomorrow. we will know if he cuts rates,
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by how much. we also have forecast for the future in the inflation report. lucy: exactly. they have not had a huge amount of data externally. have got's or what we at this moment in time because we will not get any serious statements. we have gdp numbers later this month. right there is huge amount of shock built into these, this is what the boe has to work off. they have got their ages on the ground who are doing huge events and trying to work out how businesses are reacting, but an analystse saw say that he wanted more data. then he saw the the flash estimates and said, i'm ready. francine: what you expecting from boe tomorrow? nandini: a cut of some kind, perhaps some hints at a q.e. coming in the future. but we do expect some kind of using action. francine: thank you so much.
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now, markets a little bit on the low side. they opened higher. now they are little bit lower. let's head to the bloomberg with ryan chilcote. right, it is a battle between the gainers and the losers this morning. the losers have the upper hand and if that trend continues, it will be the third day of losses and at green markets in europe. the worst streak in a month. investors fretting about the economy. take a look at this function, the grr. worst-performing group today is the carmakers afte volkswagen saidr if a tax break in china lags it could have a serious effect on demand in that country. who's ahead? the banks. they are leading the pack today. want to go inside, this is the mrr function. it allows you to look at
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individual stocks. right at the top , ing. their profit more than tripled in the third quarter. jumpt agricle reported a in profits. hsbcc missed estimates. yet the share s are up. rio tinto shares down a tad today. it has been a great ride so far this year. nothing to sneeze at. today the company warned that, as you see, this is the share price and the iron ore price that accounted for 3/4 of their earnings. the seconde price in half of the year, they are not so confident it will be as robust as the first half of the year. francine: ryan chilcote there with your asset check. up next, profit beats revenue as
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continental reports. ♪
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francine: this is "the pulse" nejra: rio tinto has reported its worst profit since 2004 as depressed prices for iron ore
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ed earnings.rod profits fell to $1.65 billion in june. coming up later today we speak to the new ceo jean sebastian jacque. axa has said the first-half profit rose 4%. france's biggest insurer saw net income rise to 3.2 billion euro s. exclusively spoke to bloomberg. very are operating in a challenging environment with low interest rates. so the key issue that we have to take is one to really focus on earnings moving up in a difficult environment.
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controllingtime, the business. nejra: volkswagen has warned that business in china will plunge if a tax break is allowed to lapse. find involved in talks to out whether the tax cut would be extended. the world's second-largest economy has been a bright spot for vw, embroiled in an emissions treating crisis around the world. beat analystle has estimates. 1.16id net income was billion euros. as it got a boost from the sale of its stake in visa europe. francine: thanks so much. europe'sal, second-largest car parts maker, has reported a second-quarter ebitda ahead of estimates.
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shafer, great to speak to you as we do every quarter. this time you're seeing a second half dropping because of brexit. how do you deal with brexit? direct impactshe from brexit is mostly exports, which we have to the u.k., and there the exchange rate is effective with a weaker british pound. this has a negative effect. only two days ago, we have increased prices by 6% to compensate for that. the other businesses we do have there, overall it is less than 4% of our total sales, is delivering mostly to the the carmakers in great britain. this business up to now is stable. we do not see any differences there. aancine: overall, how much of struggle do you think car demand
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will the in the u.k. because of brexit? are we going to see a huge slump? mr. schaefer: that's a good question. discussion, how with the economy developed in the first half of the year, it was a strong market, 11% growth in car production. we do not expect this to break down to 0 in the the second half of the year but we do see some reduction already coming. then i think it remains to be seen how all these discussions of the u.k. with the european union about extending potential trade agreements or not, and different outcomes might have a very different scenario on the economy in the u.k. francine: right. this is one of the main conversations we were having on, but do you think that people will hold up dying new cars, even if article 50 is not triggered? even if we do not know if whether people of the city of
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london will have to go back to europe. what is your sense at the moment? cars for do not buy the next eight months until we figure out who can live in this country? mr. schaefer: when i said at the beginning, first half, strong growth. this will not continue. so the answer is a little bit of a yes. they wnoon't stop buying cars, t in two years the optimism to buy cars our expectation will reduced in the second half of the year. francine: continental develops cameras for driving. how do you see this space developing? withchaefer: it's the area the strongest growth which we have at our company, 50%. in the first half of the year, and we expect this to continue. we are already this year we will be making 1.2 billion sales,
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only with these products and systems. if you think back five years ago, nobody knew that those products wouuld be existing. existing.e it is a very attractive area and the growth will continue. francine: thank you for joining us. the cfo of continental. ceo's thatf these have some kind of exposure to the u.k., so how difficult is it for a lot of ceo's to give us accurate forecasts? part of it is a tough the job. you do not know how much sentiment is going to really be hurt. car purchases are more sensitive to sentiment. we have seen consumer sentiment fall the deepest we have seen. he highlighted another key thing we are looking up. some companies have a far less exposure to the u.k. than you would expect. in terms of eurozone countries that are more sensitive to u.k.,
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ireland, belgium, netherlands export around 7% of gdp to the u.k. whereas germany, france, austria export 2%. different relationships that europe has with the u.k. is key. francine: overall, what is your biggest play? european stocks are cheap. we see a lot of earnings that are not great. of biggest terms plays, i like credit rather than equity in terms of getting access to companies growth being at the top of the capital structure helps when earnings are challenged. looking at the investment grade and high-yield in europe or you can get more bang for your buck. francine: how much does the cecb have an impact? isdini: the biggest buyer moving into corporate bonds. they are part about some sovereign bonds moving into non-bank debt. it is a big support for the prices in that market. we do see investors across the board moving a little bit down the spectrum to the investment grade, even high-yield triple
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b. credit rather than equity. francine: thank you so much. you model xbout how trump presidency next, because we will be looking at donald trump being other as another billionaire backs clinton for president. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse" meg whitman has added her name to the u.s. businesses supporting hillary clinton. this comes after barack obama said the republican nominee was unfit to be president. president obama: the notion that he would attack a gold star family, that had made such extraordinary sacrifices on .ehalf of our country he does nott appear to have basic knowledge around critical issues. the middle east, in asia. means that he's woefully unprepared to do this job.
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for moore, ryan chilcote is here. -- for more. ryan, so the problem is there are a lot of billionaires backing hillary clinton, saying donald trump is dangerous. if you see what happened with brexit, you have a lot of people flewing for the state saying that brexit should not happen. ryan: there is a danger. hillary clinton needs bernie sanders' support base. they do not like the idea of hillary clinton being so close to wall street. on the other hand, hillary clinton these republicans. she needs to get some .epublicans to cross over t we've seen a string of billionaires. now we have got meg whitman, the ceo of hewlett-packard coming out. republican,she a and by the way says she will remain a republican, but she is fundraiser.
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she is ready to deploy capital. see she says she is going to spend in the six figures to support hillary clinton. this is a cardinal sin. favor of hillary clinton as a republican and put your money behind it. what the democrats are trying to do is say donald trump is not a good businessman. listen to all these business people. francine: people do not like donald trump because he is a businessman. it's because he instills fears or he touches strings that actually are working at the time. the parallels with brexit are quite incredible. are: at the same time there a lot of americans out there who do think the donald trump has been a successful businessman. this is a perception of donald trump that the democratic party has been unable to pick apart. we know, for example, the hillary clinton called meg whitman a month ago and personally asked her. theaw this big push of democratic national convention to get the republicans onboard
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board, saying you do not like donald trump. but actually privately, these conversations with leading republicans that have money. i repeat, meg whitman, spent $140 million on her own campaign become the governor of california. did not win. francine: as a european when you think about the number spent in this campaign, it is incredible. so, the markets are saying, i do not believe you. fed saying we will hike this year but september, i do not know if we want to call it life, live, why would you hike so close to the election? nandini: the beauty of the fed's they are separate institution and the u.s. mandate,with the deal do their own thing. the election is one thing they are going to consider but more in the sense of is that going to change the economic situation of the u.s.?
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like with any of these things, of course it is change the political -- francine: but how can it not? nandini: if there is a clinton victory, there is going to be republican congress. that is gridlock and that will be good for markets and economic sentiment. there is not anything too drastic changing in the pipeline. if there is a trump a victory that might cause a different kind of global market reaction. and that will have to wait to submarkets. royal -- roils up stock markets. francine: donald trump was giving stock advice. does make a good point in that asset prices have been affected by monetary policy. now is that a reason to start hiking them? probably not. janet yellen is data dependent. that is what we expected to do. we have nonfarm payroll this friday. that is what they will be listening to more than presidential candidates. francine: i remember berlusconi
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talking to me about what i should do in stock markets in 2007. thank you so much. stay with us. "surveillance" is up next. we speak exclusively to the intesa ceo. that is coming up next. ♪
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francine: european banks are out with earnings today. can the reverse the slump? we speak it is a way to ceo carlo messina this hour on italian banks. rio tint reports its worst profit sinceo 2004. the future of the company sits on a new ceo's shoulders. trump says dump. he tells investors to pull their money out of the stock market. while president obama tells gop leaders to pull their support. this


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