tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 9, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
welcome to markets. we have live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york for the next hour plus we are covering stories that of los angeles, brazil, china. it's the final hour of trading in the u.s. stocks are still flirting with record levels both that most traders are betting volatility is behind us but is the market in the clear? turn to brazil. they host the olympics while sorting through political turmoil. what does this mean for their economic future? we will be speaking with david needleman. china, factory dated today signals improving conditions for the nation's manufacturers and adding to evidence the world's second-largest economy is stabilizing.
>> we're one hour from the close of trading. julie hyman has an update. julie: we are attracting even more than we were earlier. the s&p 500 were in records today but still some suspense in the air as to whether we will get there on a closing basis. we have seen a drop in volume today. particularly when you focus on the s&p 500 and the tightness in the trading range continues on a daily basis as well as we get this sideways movement. this looks at the daily average percentage range for the s&p 500 quarter by quarter. this goes into the bull market in 2009 and it has and wonder link. this is the tightest range we have seen going back to 1993.
that is another rough election of the volatility drop we have seen. has the overall volatility dropped, the other big team is we have seen some sizable individual stock moves. valeant pharmaceuticals international's missing estimates that it stuck with its forecast for the year and said it sees up to $8 billion worth of asset sales. the court of technology coming out with earnings that beat estimates as well. those are some of the gains we are in today. vonnie: why aren't we seeing more stocks do better? julie: why were they giving up
some gains? one of the reasons, oil. a drop. it's been volatile throughout the day but more recently into the red in the afternoon here just as we saw stocks come down from their highs. we have the all-important weekly inventories report coming up tomorrow and a preview of that with the industry data that comes out tonight. chesapeake, southwestern, range resources all trading lower at the moment. >> that's now get a check of the headlines on the bloomberg first world news. mark crumpton has more for the mark: 538.com projects hillary clinton has a 79.5% chance of winning the presidency. that increase is that nearly 97%
of the election was held today. driving her numbers, strong showings in south carolina and georgia. the parents of two americans killed in benghazi say hillary clinton is responsible and filed a wrong will do lawsuit. mrs. clinton was secretary of state at the time. the edible suit says clinton's negligent and reckless use of a private e-mail server compromised security and house republicans have blamed the obama restriction for loose security. migration to europe has dropped sharply this year. the international organization refugees and says other migrants have crossed the mediterranean. a year ago, there were $355 and. there were more deaths in route than last.
scotland blocking for new offshore wind farms. two developers will join the appeal. ruled the scottish government failed to properly assess how the wind farms would affect migratory seabirds. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more --n 120 countries stuff countries. theig traders pushing up vicks to the highest level since 2013 and its paying all. the s&p 500 has rallied in four of the last five days, up almost 20% from the lows in february. joining us from portland, oregon , the managing director.
the quality growth fund is up 11% this year. great to have you with us. we see the s&p 500 trading at a narrow range. very low volume. what will it take to get out of this drip? >> it's already been trying to break out in a fortunately some of the catalyst that might cause itbre of the circumstances we see in other parts of the market. bond yields very low. that has continued to drive the markets higher.
>> more than 11% of the gains for the fund. what will you do now? will you hold on to the holdings that make up your top 10? is wewill in part of that are not looking to trade dramatically around particular names. we are trying to find those companies that can have high return on capital. as long as they are doing that we think that's a terrific way to generate long-term value in long-term value creation for your share others. all actually producing
relatively strong fundamentals. >> you are pretty constructive on the market outlook near-term that one of the reasons for that was a better forecast for earnings and now we are hearing we could see another decline for the sixth a. how is that affecting your view of what to do next? >> that comes back to the idea that as an active manager, we are really focusing company by company so as we look at the businesses and what is projected for them moving forward, our projection for the portfolio as
a whole is we will continue to see growth next quarter over the next five years that will be in the mid to high single digit range. not every company will do that but they have good potential to be consistent growers and that is different than what you see in the broader index and really is where active management can still play a role for investors versus simply investing in markets broadly and it does become about picking individual companies. collectively continue to see the currency fluctuations, do you still have conviction in that view? >> at the difference between a short-term metric versus a long-term metric.
emerging markets will still be more of the growth story than developing markets. we just don't see turnarounds in the european economy. when you look at emerging markets, the china no errors are looking better and india will continue to be a place where there will be more investing, more commercialization and that leads to emerging markets still being an important part of the long-term growth story for many businesses. >> we are going to see more antitrade rhetoric? >> that will be one of the concerns people are thinking when but it's fair to say we think about the political situations, we think about a
short-term volatility creator than something that will necessarily turn into hard .olicies if we have a complete shift, that may make it a little more this point, wet are hopeful we will see some a more split even know we don't make political bets and that will allow businesses to have the ability to forecast their own future. thank you. coming up, brazil is grabbing the world attention as it posts the olympics. the travel market has the shrinking for the last year. is recovery insight? we are joined by david needleman, ceo of azul airlines next. and the time in new york is
health challenges. joining us is david needleman, founder and ceo of azul airlines and jetblue airlines. how is azul faring against the backdrop of the government -- dr. of zika? olympicsthere for the and got there last thursday with the opening ceremonies. ran around with my badge on and . did see a single mosquito there are obviously some health concerns for expectant mothers. that's something you have to watch out for but if you're not expecting then i don't really see it as an issue. >> but it's a different issue when it comes to your partner because the you have european people flying in and the zika
scare has a bigger impact. certainly affect -- it certainly affected certain people coming to northern brazil to vacation but most of our business was actually brazilians going to europe, which have been affected the economy but now it's coming up. the real has strengthened the dollar and we see a lot of new traffic. well from brazil to united states and now with no visa requirement through planes are full, fares are up, we are very happy. the real is the best performing currency this year up more than 20%. how is that upsetting the rise in crude prices? >> it's still $43 a barrel.
our challenge is when oil started falling, so did the real. american airlines, delta, all this tremendous windfall in we didn't get any of it because the oil went down to the same level as the currency so we were affected by the revenue side. we also pay other expenses like our debt and aircraft leases in dollars. about 65% of our cost was in dollars and suddenly we have this 30% devaluation so it was a challenging time. we have thell down, real down to 317. it was a tremendous difference. now we are back in the black, doing well. there in some restructuring as
far as capacity. we are feeling good about things. vonnie: you talked about jetblue and doing something similar in brazil but it's a very different situation. look at a gdp of -54%. unemployment above a percent. -- what are consumers in brazil like? >> about 65% of our travel is corporate travel. we have been affected. our traffic is still high. we have an 80% factor. that wasn't really our problem. the revenues never really were our problem. 65% of the cost was a dollar-denominated. now that that has helped capacities come out, our competitors have cut capacity. shares are up and we are back.
the olympicses play in here? business travelers. the world cup affected is probably more than the olympics. forecast at revenue the beginning of every month. our revenue is kept track on a daily basis and they have an adjusting it up every single day. a lot of people are pleasantly surprised, thrilled with the olympics. we see a lot of traffic into rio right now. we are seeing heavy bookings into rio. of people that left to go out of rio now coming back. has been great. i went to the opening ceremonies
sponsored by one of our suppliers and went as a spectator and had a good time. vonnie: i want to ask about the into rem government. do you anticipate after all of this blows over that the airline industry will look the same there? >> brazil has its challenges and there's no doubt that in 2009 when the olympics were announced , if conditions were as they were today, no one would have gone but they are making the best of it and it's going well -- the currency is in related to confidence brazil. we all know there are trillions of dollars that would look to find a good home with a good investments. the problem has been lack of confidence. when they see tens of billions of dollars of all you because of corruption, people flee the market.
the new government has introduced some legislation that is passed, once the issue is passes, it sot happens that our board member is our finance minister. he was influential in getting a good central bank president and all of this is working. that is why you see the currency down. shari: thank you for coming in. that was david needleman. much more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. shari: it's time for options insight with the julie hyman. julie: thank you. joining me for today's option insight is kevin kelly, chief investment officer at recon capital. we had been watching this drop in relatively. the data is out on any managers and whether they are short or long volatility. not only is their low volatility, people think it will keep going. >> we have seen that time and time again and that is why we see these extreme moves in volatility because people start embedding the wrong way and everybody is betting on the nose out there. everybody knows that frexit has
already happened and everybody knows we have a flattening yield curve but one of the things people are overlooking is to take a small, minor thing to set off the entire tinderbox to make us go from an 11 or 12 all the way up to. we saw that often last year. two more weeks and we were at the highest basis. we could see it happen again so people need to be very careful especially with september and october being really volatile. >> what should people be watching us that tender? >> oil and the dollar.
the leading indicators are not doing well. we look at auto sales the lagging indicator is jobs numbers. the market moved higher on a lagging indicator so if the dollar does get stronger, it could impact the economy and set it all. julie: thank you so much. back to you. vonnie: thank you. still ahead, stabilization out of china and its latest data. we are breaking down the numbers. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ hip hop beat throughout ] [ fans cheering ]
♪ olympics 2016, let me get you on my level. ♪ ♪ so you never miss a moment, ♪ ♪ miss a minute, miss a medal. ♪ why settle when you can have it all? ♪ ♪ soccer to wrestling. track and field to basketball. ♪ ♪ fencing to cycling. diving to balance beam. ♪ ♪ all you have to say is, ♪ "show me," and boom it's on the screen. ♪ ♪ from the bottom of the mat, ♪ ♪ to the couch where you at? ♪ ♪ "show me the latest medal count?" ♪
we check in with mark crumpton in the newsroom. mark: the latest multistate poll is out in hillary clinton leave donald trump 52% to 42% in pennsylvania among likely voters. in ohio, ahead 49% to 45% and has a slight edge in florida, 46% to 45%. to survey conducted july 30 august 7 and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. donald trump is being outspent both thirdtising by party candidates. the washington post says jill stein has spent $189,000 more than trump on tv ads. even gary johnson's $15,000 on spending.eeds trump hillary clinton is spending significantly more than all three combined start search crews have recovered the black box of the sunken freight are
also. in freighter went down october 2015. national transportation safety board mission had been on hold the cuts resources weren't available. all 33 crew members died after the vessel sank. a federal judge has upheld governor's 14s year prison term on corruption charges. he was originally sentenced in 2000 74 trying to exchange an of obama senate seat for campaign cash. he was ordered to be resentenced. the united nations calling for he sees higher in aleppo so it can provide urgently needed aid. they want a full fledged cease-fire or a weekly
humanitarian pause at minimum. the group once to provide medicine to millions who lack electricity or access to water. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in one in 120 countries. : it's close in just under 30 minutes. let's go live to the nasdaq with the tech stocks. abigail: we actually have no tech stocks for you today but we have an all-time intraday record high put in earlier. it's an exciting time for the nasdaq. the question of course going ahead is whether this is the beginning of a new string of continued record highs or will like what the nasdaq does
it did last july, quickly moving down. only time will tell that when we do take a look at the bloomberg we see a very busy chart. this is the nasdaq over the last year. we see big whip saws up and down. this volatility may breed more of the same. it will be interesting to see ahead.ppens in the weeks investors may want to be prepared for the possibility of anything. one big drive all day has been norwegian cruise lines. stock is having its worst day on 11%.ecord, down this is really coming on the companies reducing the guidance.
this is a combination of factors including a weak pound and less travel to europe and north american's due to the string of terror attacks. some investors may be wondering when it will be time to look at norwegian cruise line holdings. the next big catalyst comes next year when we find out about bookings. matt: you point out a small gain. what is helping them to holdup? what's the biggest one boost all day, not a tech stock. these stocks actually hit a record high today, having its best day since march of 2013. importantly, they showed
integration worries were around the time warner cable acquisition. paul sweeney says the synergy from those acquisitions may be more than they'd hundred million earlier in -- estimated. matt: thank you. abigail doolittle at the nasdaq. joe: china's economic data showing some positive trends on producer prices, consumer price is, factory deflation, all of which points to stabilization for the economy. some saying china is not out of the woods just yet. michael, thank you for joining us. it's china data week this week.
what is your read so far? do you see signs of stabilization? >> one funny fact is we are expecting better than expected data. we still have three years of falling prices. with that said, it's starting the trend in the right direction. there was one piece of bad data we should focus on and that was in poor. generally a bad sign for the domestic economy. still not seeing a lot of robust demand. >> what do you -- that might be a sign of diminishing slag in the economy but what do you attribute that to? >> you still have a slowdown in china so we are trying to balance the economy away from
industry, more toward consumption but it's a very hard into do. what's really stabilizing the economy isn't that you suddenly have a miracle. a lot of people had to lean on some of the old drivers, some of the manufacturing. were up a bits and that is because you have seen some depreciation in the currency. what's causing it stabilize probably isn't what you would you were looking for a rebalance. >> we did see auto sales doing well up 23% in the month and this has been an area in which there has been concern lately for a real recovery. you can see a bit of the recovery.
>> it's a very good because there was a concern over the amount of inventory being built up. basically you have a lot of auto sellers on discount but the big thing to look at here is you .ave a tax incentive right now that could change the story the end of the year. certainly good we are seeing the inventories go of. we will have to see what happens. we are approaching the one-year anniversary of when china devalued the currency for that this year, we have did you 20 meeting. china tends to like to dress things up a bit. what kind of measures or data might we expect to see in the lead up to that event? >> i think they have been doing a better job when they did the
to cause panic. >> we talked about producer prices. let's talk a bit about it. it's been kind of tame for a while. what would it mean for the economy and the ability to ease? scarlet: and critical of course. where prices are right now, authorities and china have plenty of the to ease if they want to. pork is very important for
china. food is a big component of inflation. >> the blue line here is the dollar yen. allas continued to weaken year. the white line is three-month volatility. whenan see last august they did that evaluation, volatility surged but there's been a disconnect. they have been able to let the currency weaken. it really speaks to the more managed approach. a very good done job. you haven't seen this can have -- capital outflow from china.
scarlet: what is the drawback from that managed depreciation? chinesenk it the economy were to suddenly start tanking, there's one scenario that might cause them to change a bit. that'll probably also cause them to more rapidly depreciate the currency. be i.e. kanaan is the function you type in. you can click on the china have, number 54. you click on the china to have ab and click on a number of things.t a great resource for information.
was an overall scaling back of the business regulations imposed by the obama administration. earlier today, his senior economic advisor spoke on bloomberg . to haveey proposal is the cap network reduce regulation. will be the cabinet asked to list regulations that thet benefit the public, so focus of the economic program is to get growth going and wages up. that is a coherent part of these reforms. growth, youhe goal, have cutting back on regulations. what are the other key elements? is critical. on the tax reform, you have got to bring down the tax rates. mrs. clinton wants rates to be higher. it's hard to see how that can help the economy grow. growth has been 1.2% over the
last year so this is really a failing economy where you need new lessees. a bigger part of that is broad rates. and this works well. the growth rate goes up a lot in business investment goes up a lot when you change the rates to a lower size. >> we have a chart your to put op that shows the ratio of the federal deficit to gdp. that going to the reagan years and the red portion there is reagan plus george herbert walker bush and the blue is clinton and the red is george w. bush. you can see president reagan cut taxes but the federal deficit went up. how is mr. trump going to pay for this particularly with a lot of republicans concerned about the deficit? you were 1980's,
recovering from a high inflation rate. a lot of that was due to the past inflation. also, you were at work at beating the soviet union in terms of cold war. in our current circumstances, you could do a better job on the spending side. one of the critical things we are lacking is any actual debt limit. look at the problems they have had over the last four years fighting about whether debt should go up in government wins every time and there is no regulatory process. i've written a lot about the need to redo the debt limit so we have some kind of spending control going on. >> if you're talking about cutting spending -- >> cutting cost. big difference. government spending is going up really fast right now. if you had any kind of workable allocation of spending, you would get a better result from
the fiscal side. we have got to have a stronger fiscal side for the government. >> but specifically you are not spending as much money. that actually be the opposite of a stimulus? >> no. business looks at that and says the government is operating more effectively so now is the time to invest. it cannot be the case that government spending attracts private-sector spending. we tested that in 2009 and 2010 one president obama did a giant amount of government spending and the private sector reaction was to pull back. >> that goes to the question of productivity with business investment. is it the offices the reason we are not getting the businesses we have now because taxes are low enough? companies can borrow at a remarkably low rate right now. why aren't they borrowing?
>> they don't see growth, a system of policies that create growth. critical to that is the regulatory more us. small businesses don't want to start up. lowness formation has been and that's costing us millions of jobs, really good jobs, entry-level jobs. regulation that they cannot get through. you are the senior economic adviser to the trump campaign. have people penciled out how this will cost? >> down the line, they will be scoring. i'm skeptical of how accurate that scoring can be because i think we are underestimating america right now because we have it in so many years in slow growth. you will get more business
investments, tax revenues, it will make it easier to get the spending reforms done you actually need to get done. that was a senior economic advisor to the trump campaign. up, walt disney company set to report earnings after the closing bell. why shanghai disneyland is so important to international business. this is bloomberg. ♪ service
the parks is massive for disney because it the second business for disney after media business. share of thee 65% global market just by attendance alone. this chart shows the domestic and international breakdown of disney's park revenue. of the business has not made a profit since 2004 when it really begin breaking that out. it's hurting. also, tokyo is the only one profitable. the it shows the stakes of new shanghai disney and how important that is. scarlet: they spent $300 million in preopening expenses according to bloomberg intelligence so it won't generate any profit this fiscal year. couple companies reporting after the bell. solar city in the process of
selling to tesla. i want to take a look in the solar city fortune. i'm looking at the eeg function on the terminal. the white line is the share price. you can see $90 a share in relief 20 -- in early 2014. it's striking the red line are the estimates for this particular quarter and right now, they are estimated to earn -$2.50. two years ago, the estimate was for a flat zero. you can see the incredible decline of earnings estimated just for that quarter. this really tells the story of estimates for how much this business has deteriorated. scarlet: and why they are running to the arms of tesla. joe: it shows us shifting perceptions. function to a great
look at how analyst have brought earnings estimates a down. at s&p 500 on volume. you can access it. this shows you the blue line running across the middle of the screen. that is the one year average volume. with the exception of one day we hit a new high, we have been below average. each of these blue columns represents a new record on the s&p 500. without very much volume, there's not a lot of conviction in that rally. that's it for bloomberg markets. and theyou miss?" markets close up next. ♪