tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 17, 2016 12:00pm-2:01pm EDT
scarlet: good afternoon. i'm scarlet fu. matt: i'm matt miller. here's what we're watching. -- stocks edging lower. investors eagerly awaiting the fed minutes from the july meeting. explain they could help why fed officials did not signal the timing of their next move. is lower for longer a buying opportunity? hillary clinton takes the lead in key battleground states. another sign of upheaval within the campaign. scarlet: we are halfway through the u.s. trading day. track ofan is keeping the first back-to-back decline in equity markets in two weeks.
julie: see more selling pressure start to build up. closer to record a couple of days ago. all three averages pushing toward the lows of the session. still not seeing huge declines. the nasdaq leaving toward half of 1% as investors await fed minutes. comments from bill dudley yesterday that september could potentially be on the table. let's take a look at the two day chart of the s&p 500 as we see the back-to-back pullback going back to the beginning of august now amounting to about 1%. we are still on the streak of no one percent moves on a daily basis. i believe it is 28 sessions now unless something changes radically by the close of trading. take a look at the imap.
some subgroups are in the green. , materials, consumer discretionary amtech are doing -- and tech are doing worse today. see the at&t down. verizon and frontier as well. bloomberg intelligence saying we are not going to see as many bid or as high as had been expected unclear what that means for the spectrum ownership by the various companies. 80% of the s&p is down but one group is really leading the rally -- the drop i mean. julie: consumer discretionary is the one that stands out. it is heavily weighted and we got a lot of news. in the retail sector specifically. i guess we don't have the chart. groundhas been losing
after the company cut its forecast. you will see weakness in the second half of the year. from aessarily suffering broader retail environment the losing ground to home depot once again in particular. hearing from other companies as well like staples that are missing estimates. matt: i can pull up any chart that you need. i can do it on the run no problem. no problem. over a three-month period no problem. staples, easy. julie: they are all down today. matt: there you go. staples. three months. no problem. julie: they are all down today. matt: let's check in with mark crumpton in the newsroom.
mark: donald trump has overhauled the leadership of his campaign and says he will do whatever it takes to win and he named former goldman sachs banker stephen bannon as campaign ceo. he has been running the conservative website breitbart news. he also has a new campaign manager. paul manafort will keep his title. he was seen as someone who could help trump broaden his appeal but trump has not been inclined to accept his recommendations. according to a survey of registered voters with money in the market narrowly picked trump over hillary clinton 42% to 40%. tojune trump led 50 to 33% 60 miles east of los angeles california a monstrous wildfire has forced more than 80,000 people to flee their homes. several buildings have been
destroyed and the buyer for stay shutdown of part of interstate 15 leaving drivers stranded for hours. german chancellor angela merkel returns to the campaign trail that are bypport terror attacks and immigration concerns. it's less than three weeks before state elections in germany's eastern region. she will address a rally of her christian democratic union. anti-immigration party alternative for germany may win as much as 1/5 of the vote. i'm mark crumpton. less than twoe hours away from the release of the minutes of the is july meeting. just yesterday bill dudley said that a september hike is possible. atlanta fed president says he is con and that growth is
accelerating. in terms of how traders are pricing in the profit -- of a rate increase as of today the odds of a rate increase on september 21 is that 25.2%. compare that to two days ago before dennis lockhart and bill dudley spoke and it was at 17.5%. clearly traders have gotten more hawkish on the back of those comments. and: joining us now is cio global wealth management of bankamerica. what do you think? is there any chance that we get an increase this year or are you seeing it happening in 2017? the dollar -- in late 14ar fading and 15 and the oil prices brought that deflationary full force into 20 asked team. that is fading very fast. matt: the deflationary force is fading. >> absolutely.
it's not only growth. central bankers have been saying it is picking up but it's also deflationary forces. i'm not talking about in mass yet. the weight of the strong dollar has been stating for a while and that is feeding into the system. the odds of a rate hike this year -- september is still a live meeting. the real want to focus on is december. those odds should increase substantially from this point forward as we get toward december. within the united states it is dissipating a bit. outside you could say deflationary forces are still pretty strong. a lot of people say the fed has an unofficial third mandate. >> in question. price stability is number one. there are the global central bank and they will continue to non-us financial conditions. it's one of the reasons the window closed earlier this year.
continue to open slightly because there is growth pick up in europe. that deflationary force should start to ease a little bit. japan is a totally different story. the industrialized areas starting to kick into gear. we're not talking about huge growth . you talk about huge growth in negative interest rates and the default to central bankers constantly being there is slowly starting to see the way. the sum a wider window to act. matt: is it possible a rate increase could encourage more growth? it's a knee-jerk reaction to be negative at first. an impetus toen normalize rates on a successive basis recently. that would be down the road absolutely. you would start to see capital investment come back. that has been the heavy blanket on gdp growth since we started
this. scarlet: we had this unusual market where both hans and stocks are rallying. your global head of rates and itrency at bankamerica says is bad for most investors except for the risk parity trade. how comfortable are your clients with this approach? >> relatively speaking most private clients when you talk about the ultrahigh net worth or the broader retail sector the biggest assets they have are fixed income and at ease. the comfortableness of this is rising. i would say the broader financial return backdrop is going to remain relatively what i would call below average. it's going to require looking below the indices in the next few years to be able to increase the return that the broader indices unfortunately have a big struggle with. matt: where are you looking?
>> the sector level is going to get more difficult to it's more about factors. call into question will be do you want to own the dividend paying stocks? it may go through these episodes where they will underperform but over a trend line basis over the next three years high-quality dividend payers. scarlet: where do you find that in terms of sectors? tech is on the cusp of turning into a leading sector. it is breaking out from its improving status. health care is currently leading. commodities, materials in the lagging and weakening phase along with utilities. >> the commodities materials and energy are going back-and-forth
and they are leading when the dollar is either weak or stable. laggards when the dollar was strong. we expect them to be neutral going forward and that's what we are across the board on commodities. and he can give you some yield -- energy can give you some yield. u.s. financials will give you the impetus of a yield as you move forward in the cycle particularly as a bump up in rates comes. it should come a little bit later. health care and tech are the areas that can provide growth and yield at the same time. you have to be very selective. you have to do your homework. that graph is going to look a lot different when the fed starts to normalize. scarlet: thank you for joining us, chief investment officer at bank of america. matt: coming up, casino mogul steve wynn is opening his newest
matt: you're watching bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. scarlet: and i'm scarlet fu. warned antitrust officials more than a month ago that it would pull out of obamacare's government run market or health insurance if the u.s. tries to block it $37 billion merger with humana. a letter to the justice department the company ceo says challenging a negative financial impact and impair the company's ability to keep providing plans under the aca. stock analysts are
reconsidering their relationship with valeant pharmaceuticals after being burned over the last year. shares hit their highest point since may. believe valeant's plan to divest assets and amend agreements with lenders should improve its financial health and diminish the risk of default. scarlet: the international airline emirates is in charge -- talks with the national basketball association. a deal would let emirates put its name on a 2.5 inch square patch on the jerseys left shoulder. that is the bloomberg business flash. matt: in his been a big year for wynn resorts. investors are optimistic about recovery in macau's gaming industry. next week steve wynn will open his latest resort in macau. the wind palace.
at $4.2 billion it is the most expensive project. >> casinos are not for children. adult resort. the city of macau. its offerings and food and beverage, gaming. conventions, meeting space. entertainment are pitched for the 21-year-old and above. there are better places for kids than macau or las vegas. 5% aboutct less than 3% of the visitors to las vegas are under 21. >> you are trying to attract a mass-market audience. >> i'm trying to appeal to everybody in the world and make them's day you've got to go to macau to stay in this hotel. it's the greatest experience you can imagine.
that is the definition of diversification. it isn't just a place for a baccarat player. it's for people who want to stay in a beautiful and lovely hotel and be well served in the sense of the hospitality industry. you spend more money on the scum on the food, on the restaurants. that's diversification. it doesn't mean adding a roller coaster or a ferris wheel. >> you applied for 280 new gaming tables and you got 150 altogether. what was your reaction? >> we thought 100 was the minimum and we planned accordingly and we hired accordingly. an executive that has a hotel that includes giving -- gaming room, they would say it's much better to be under spread in games than overspread. because no one likes to see a bunch of vital tables.
tablesl tables -- vital idle tables. the clamping down as you put it, the vip sector has shrunk because demand went away. the customers went away. i don't think the government took aim at the junket operators. at least that's not my opinion. i think the policies of central had anent in beijing spending atducing the high-end. louis vuitton, chanel. wynn also weighed in on the election and gave his thoughts on both nominees. >> i'm a friend of donald
trump's but i have not supported either candidate in the presidency as yet. i'm friendly with bill clinton. i know hillary. and i know donald. i have known them all quite a long time. i'm hoping that our conversations in america in this campaign get to be more substantive about the real issue facing us at the moment. and that is a constantly increasing deficit in the government. matt: that was ceo and cofounder steve wynn. scarlet: still ahead, the dollar is on the rise as the chances of a rate increase by the end of the year rise with it. we will discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪
after signal rates from the adderall reserve. more in about 90 minutes when the minutes from the july fomc meeting our release. joining us now is fx strategist with bloomberg first word. typically the minutes are back and smoking. we don't expect a lot of news the markets. is this time different? >> i think it's pretty much the same. we are expecting a rehashing of we don't expect a lot ofhawkishm statements that followed. that's at least the markets mood. scarlet: when you look at the dollar that is where you are being sentiment regarding a possible rate increase. we have gotten conflicting remarks from fed officials. >> what a change. scarlet: what rings truer to you? >> i think dudley's comments ring truer. it was an essay speculating on this theory of the real natural
interest rate. matt: john williams basically saying the fed needs a new paradigm. there is asaying meeting in september and they could raise rates. >> i think what dudley was trying to do was get us to the 50% mark which he did in terms of pricing. if the fed ever wants to raise in september, the shock would not be there to the markets. it at a 50-50 proposition would leave them the opportunity to assess data and raise or not raise as they see fit. scarlet: that means there will not be a shock in the market later on? the 25%you get down to range where the markets are not pricing in, that leaves a big gap. when you get to the 50-50 range -- matt: the problem with not
having it is that moves in currency would be too quick. i have a bloomberg dollar index chart going back five years. the elevated levels where we are trading. if the fed is raising rates soon. could we see this index jump higher? >> absolutely. the dollar would rise sharply and so would u.s. treasury rate. matt: and the yield curve would probably flatten as well. >> it's hard to say. andlook at the yield curve i'm still a little confused by it. it really should not be as flat as it is. the fed spends most of its resources in the belly of the curve where historically they were in the one to two-year space. matt: i know scarlet wants to focus on currencies that i wanted to point out, crvs is one
of my favorite functions. it is the curve finder. i will graph the curves. you can pick any country. i'm graphing the u.s. and the u.k. yield curves. you can see the u.k. yield curve is the green and the u.s. flattening a little bit. that has to be a concern. scarlet: we have gotten data from the u.k. after the brexit vote. the data showed that the market was fairly resilient to july. to what extent is a recession already priced in? >> i don't think a recession is priced in. i think the markets are down on the pound. scarlet: the positioning is extremely bearish. >> and the sentiment among traders is to still sell rallies.
the data is still likely to come in positive. it's in the closer end of this whole brexit move. the sentiment data is poor. but the hard data is not. matt: i was talking to you about this earlier. sees cable at 110. that is a 12 to 18 month forecast but crazy. >> that is about 6.5 figures off the all-time low so not likely. matt: thanks very much. shakes ofonald trump his campaign team naming a former goldman sachs banker as ceo. will that lead to a comeback? this is bloomberg. ♪ [ clock ticking ]
because after all we should fit into your life. not the other way around. ♪ everything is cool when you're watching a screen ♪ ♪ everything is awesome, ♪ when you're sharing a meme ♪ ♪ a voice remote, "show me angry kings" ♪ ♪ you know what's awesome? everything! ♪ ♪ apps that please, more selfies, ♪ ♪ endless hours of the best tvs ♪ ♪ brand new apps, shows to go, ♪ ♪ awesome internet that's super whoa... ♪ ♪ everything is awesome xfinity. the future of awesome. matt: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york city, i'm matt miller. scarlet: it is beautiful out there. matt: it looks absolutely gorgeous.
i've not been outside since the sun was fully up, but i'm going to guess it's 95 real feel. scarlet: let's start with the headlines in bloomberg first word news. mark crumpton has the headlines. mark: the red cross is more than 1000 disaster volunteers have been mobilized from all 50 states, the district of columbia , and puerto rico to assist with louisiana flood relief efforts. the cost of the relief operation is expected to exceed $30 million. at least 40,000 homes have been damaged and 11 people have been killed. the red cross says it's the worst national disaster since superstorm sandy. more than 500 passengers headed to puerto rico from the dominican republic were forced to abandon ship after a fire broke out in the engine room of the caribbean fantasy ocean liner, which spread quickly. the u.s. coast guard is working quickly to carry passengers safely to san juan harbor. no passengers missing and no injuries reported.
still unclear what caused the fire. the daughter of former vice president dick cheney may be heading to capitol hill. liz cheney won the republican primary for wyoming's seat in the house. that means cheney is a heavy favorite to win in november. republican voters have a 3-1 edge over democrats in wyoming. the real new security measures for this year's oktoberfest. munich is banning backpacks and other large bags from the beer drinking celebration. a number of security guards will be increased from 250 to 450 at times. last month, germany was rocked by a series of attacks. dayal news 24 hours a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am mark crumpton. .his is bloomberg scarlet: donald trump has shaken up his campaign team again, demoting paul manafort.
a source says that the new leaders will allow trump to take on the same tone as the primary election. yesterday in an exclusive interview with erik schatzker, billionaire carl icahn says it's time for trump to go after the economy. carl: i would very much like to see trump when this because i think he is the only hope to save business in america the way we know it. i really mean that. right now, our economy is really not doing well. gdp is not going up and i would give you a lot of reasons, but the most important is that the middle-class worker does not have good jobs. the unemployment numbers are not accurate. a lot of these guys have left the workforce. these jobs are not paying that well. i'm saying that the middle-class -- that is why you saw this uprising for bernie sanders and
nucsee it for trump nu brexit and what is going on in italy. there is great distress and our global economy. people resent government for allowing it to happen. in this very small room, epa is helping big oil. ofy are helping a couple very wealthy companies make a fortune and putting the smaller refiners out of business. that alone you can say, so big deal? that is why there is distrust of what is happening in government and that is what i would like to do something about it. if i believe i can make a difference with trump, i will do it. i have to believe i can make a difference. erik: you through a number out there for what you might spend in a super pac -- $20 million.
what will it take for you to spend more money on the trump campaign? thus far, you only spent 100 grand. carl: in certain ways, i supported him. when he had that rally for the veterans, it did great. i would've done it, but i gave half a million immediately when they asked me to, when he went against megyn kelly. butd a few other things, being that said, i'm not looking for praise for that. what i am saying to you though is i want to really believe that donald has a shot to win. erik: you don't? carl: i do believe it. way you say it, it sounds as though you're trying to persuade yourself that he has a shot. not beaybe i should saying it on bloomberg, but i will say it. i do believe that donald has a
great shot if he sticks to positives, not so much to the negatives, meaning if he just talks about the economy and what and telling the workers in the swing states, look, here's the thing. hillary clinton is making all these promises. i'm going to do broadband for everybody and tunnels and bridges. where will she get the money? you have a divided congress in gridlock. everything, and to one extent you can say donald can promise too. donald can deliver. he could change regulatory agencies as president. way, i think it is a little bit ludicrous to let people come into this country from the middle east that tell -- that they are looking to that isis is looking to kill you. these are the things that he can
deliver. that is what he has got to stick to. erik: why isn't he? i have to presume that you are offering him this advice. you saw each other this past weekend. did you not tell him? carl: this weekend was pretty quick. i do talk to him and i am going to keep talking to him about it. he knows this, too. i think donald is great when he speaks about these things. his economic message to mondays ago was terrific. if he sticks to that, he's going to win. scarlet: that was carl icahn speaking to erik schatzker yesterday. matt: with more on trump's campaign, let us bring in steve to talk about the possibility of that super pac and whether or not it would make a difference. first of all, welcome. don't $20rl icahn
million into a super pac, with that help donald trump right now? steve: i don't think so. put the truck question aside. have not been a reliable game changer in this election so far. the super pac that spent the most money so far has been jeb bush's campaign in the primary and it did absolutely nothing to help him. the idea that trump could be ised by some outside money not really realistic, especially given trump standing right now. there is too many questions still about his temperament, his readiness to be tried a preside. the only person who can fix those is donald trump. matt: his friends don't seem willing to support him. ynn isn't doing it. carl icahn, who supports donald trump, doesn't have any conviction that donald trump can win. steve: part of that is because
donald trump has not been the kind of candidate that carl icahn was talking about him needing to the. there are a lot of people who think donald trump could win if donald trump was x, y, or z. he is not shown that he has been willing to do that because trump wants to be trump. scarlet: he is doubled down on that with that shakeup as well. steve: that is the signal it sending. more shook up his campaign and installed some aides as ceo and campaign manager. the signal that he is sending is i'm not going to change, i'm not going to take it. i'm going to be myself. these are people who understand that i want to be myself and will let me be myself. the executive from breitbart news is very anti-washington, very anti-republican elite. that is also a signal that trump is sending that he is not playing nice anymore. he's going to do what he wants
and if you do not like it, tough. matt: so does roger ailes actually help donald trump's campaign? there was a while that he was fighting with fox news, not just megyn kelly, but the whole network. does he help him now? he is got america to watch that network. steve: there is still some conflicting reporting about whether ailes will have a role in the campaign. no one questions the fact that ailes is a town to guy who knows his audience. obviously he resigned from fox news for a reason and that is not something normal politicians would want to associate themselves with. trump is not a normal politician, so it's hard to tell exactly. scarlet: he's not a normal politician and he does not have a normal politicians message. but when he does and he talks about taxes and the promise of tax cuts, compare and
contrast that to what hillary clinton is doing. steve: in some ways this is a very unconventional election, but in a lot of ways it's very conventional one comes to tax policy and the economy. sides sticking out their sites with donald trump calling for a lot of tax cuts and hillary clinton promoting -- i hesitate to say spread the wealth, but it's a much more progressive spending plan. matt: three going to say wealth redistribution? steve: i didn't say it. [laughter] hillary clinton is in cleveland today, talking about donald trump's tax plan. she will be making the case she has been making, which is that it is for the wealthy and that it will benefit donald trump's friends. the one thing that is similar to 2012 is donald trump is really rich and hillary clinton is going to point that out, the same thing that barack obama pointed out about mitt romney. matt: she's incredibly wealthy.
when you count the money that she and bill made in 2007, she has $100 million. when you count the global initiative, they have even more. steve: my colleague here at bloomberg wrote the story that crunched the numbers and looked at how clinton's taxes would have changed under trump's plan. she would pay less taxes under his. scarlet: she would've benefited. steve: that is not a message that the clinton campaign would not have any problem with. they would say that the clintons are very wealthy, but she is promoting policies that will help the middle class. donald trump inks his policies help the middle class, but therein lies the age-old democratic-republican fight. matt: who knows what helps the middle class? we have had clinton's. we have had bushes. we have had obama. you still see this and come in income inequality growing. great for the reporting and
thanks for joining us. i was wondering if anyone to get through congress, but that's an age-old issue. we will talk about what can trump achieve tomorrow. steve from bluebird politics. scarlet: volatility and the chinese yen has dropped to the lowest since mid-october. these muted moves come after china roiled markets by devaluing the yen. as the people's bank of china for the back -- firmly back in control? this is bloomberg. ♪
board. a weaker second half thanks to lack of demand in russia. we will hear from the ceo just ahead. nejra: egypt's revolution may have been short-lived. could we be heading for an arrow fall? carlsbad focusing on a beer market contraction that is set to accelerate. bloomberg spoke to the ceo about its outlook in russia. >> russia is a very big market and we will see it more. we need to cover the cost. obviously in the first half of the year, the market declined. it is now -2%. we expect the second have to be around -5%.
remains a thorn in the side of carlsberg, which fel cells about a third of the country's beer. nejra: in london, there is another battle between uber and the city's transport regulator. it would require drivers from non-english-speaking countries to pass a link which exam. it would also tell uber to make any changes to its mobile app. first-time applications for unemployment benefits and the u.k. unexpectedly fell in the first month after the brexit vote. downss claims were while unemployment rose in the second quarter and the british unemployment rate held at 4.9 percent. cathay pacific had profits that plunged. asia's international airline was battle by losses from jet fuel hedges.
passengers fell due to competition from chinese airlines. vonnie: timeout for a bloomberg quick take, where we provide context and background on issues of interest. in 2011, egypt look like a model for a revitalized middle east. demonstrators slept half a century of military dictatorship, but the euphoria soon dissipated. unrest resurfaced in 2016, fueled by anger at police violence and the president's move to see two islands to saudi arabia. officials responded severely to protests and thousands of egyptians died and protest. supporters of the muslim brotherhood have been arrested and hundreds have been sentenced to death. the brotherhood has been labeled terrorists and has an band. -- has been banned.
a slump in foreign reserves and a dearth of foreign investment plate the economy. egypt has been kept afloat by eight from arab gulf states. the drop in oil prices has made that aid more tenuous however. it has prompted egypt to ask the international monetary fund for $12 billion loan. here's the background. military leaders have shaped egypt's history for more than 3000 years. egypt is the arab world most populous nation and half its 85 million people are under the age of 25. the military controls large segments of the economy. here's the argument. supporters say he rescued egypt from islamists more interest ed and promoting their interest than the national good. opponents say the president promoted his own interests.
military assistance averages 1.3 billion u.s. dollars annually. in 2015, the u.s. agreed to make good on its full commitments but stipulated that in the future egypt could no longer by u.s. military equipment on credit. you can read more about egypt and all of our quick takes on the terminal. that is your global business report. had to bloomberg.com for more stories. ♪
matt: this is "bloomberg markets." i am matt miller. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. let's go to abigail doolittle who is live at the nasdaq for the latest on the stocks where. abigail: looking at a bit of a turned around. the index lowered and now down just 1/10 of 1%. it is worth noting that if the nasdaq does finish down today, it will be the first today decline for the nasdaq since june 27 and assign the second dy
of the brexit fall off. as for what is dragging today, one of the top drags on the nasdaq today is cisco. scherzer down 1.3%. -- shares are down 1.2%. cisco does report its fiscal fourth-quarter today after the close. what is dragging on the stocks today though appears to be a report from crn saying that cisco could reduce its workforce by 14,000 workers or 20% of the workforce. we reached out to a few analysts to find out what analyst on the street think of the possibility. we're fortunate enough to speak to eric and he does have a market perform work essentially a neutral on shares. thinks that the workforce reduction could signal a transition from legacy products to higher growth products.
he also thinks the current quarter that they are reporting tonight could come in a bit slow. he believes they are likely to reduce the outlook. as to whether that could pressure shares more, he thinks the stock could definitely come under pressure if that outlook is brought down. he has been surprised by the strength of the shares, up more than 10% this year. scarlet: thank you so much, abigail doolittle, reporting live at the nasdaq. matt: volatility in the currency has dropped to the lowest level since mid-october of 2015. a year later, is chinese monetary policy and currency policy on a more sound footing? what you miss?," george was in. >> the people's bank of china introduced a policy in december with capital controls that have been tightened. the economy is looking a a little more stable things to
robust stimulus program that the chinese government introduced. for the time being, things certainly much more beyond. we had an appreciation since redemptive, butn the nobody seems to back nine at the moment. -- to bat an eye at the moment. >> should we be paying closer attention to this and that there is a signaling of the underlying chinese economy or that we can kind of move on and move past the depreciation? george: my feeling is that global markets were guilty of overreacting in august of last year and again in january of this year, i think at the moment that they are being a little complacent. markets may have had to me things to think about -- fed policy, brexit, and what else.
the reason that things have called a little bit in the chinese economy -- and that narrative has gone a little bit stale from a markets perspective. the reason that has happened is because of extraordinary growth in credit. boost withbig fiscal the share of government spending rising by about three percentage points of gdp in the last 18 months. a lot of infrastructure spending is taking the place or compensating for the decline in private investment for the first time since records began. is these things will not be able to continue. china's government will not be able to sustain these things. obviously people know there is great dissension going on within the government as to whether they should be pursuing these policies in the first place. my hunch is that things will
start to slow down in the economy during the second half of the year. i think the rmb is going to weaken again. matt: that was ebs senior economist and author george magnus. scarlet: still ahead, we are an hour away from the release of the fed's latest meeting minutes. we have the global economic advisor to pimco joining us with his take on why the fed should pass with july and what is ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ matt: from bloomberg world headquarters in midtown manhattan, good afternoon. a gorgeous day here in new york city. for once, i'm told it is not 90 degrees or higher outside. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu and he is matt miller. recovering new york stories to windows errors in this hour. the dollar is gaining as investors await the minutes from the feds last meeting. matt: emerging-market stocks and currencies also falling ahead of the fed minutes. rate hike mean for countries like argentina and venezuela? scarlet: paul krugman tells us a clinton presidency would mean for the economy. would it be a continuation of president obama's legacy? matt: the halfway to the trading
day. onie hyman has the latest equities. julie: and also on bonds. we have headlines coming up from the st. louis fed, not a voting member of the federal reserve, but nonetheless, he is making some comments. he is repeated of you that he is already stated that he sees one rate increase over the next two years. it flies in the face of what bill dudley said yesterday in an interview that we could potentially see a rate increase in september. he says there is no reason to see the u.s. economy heading for recession on the flip side as well. he is making these comments and prepared remarks for a speech that he is going to beginning today. that is the text of that speech. matt: may be dudley's september rate increase is bullard one increase. one and done. julie: not exactly sure that is
what you think still be done, but in any case, perhaps a little more insight from the fed itself when we get those minutes. we can see the 10 year yield is 7%, some not 1.5 seeing a lot of people placing bets on what the fed may say. switching over the equities and taking a look at the major averages. we are actually seeing a pairing of the kleins across the board . at last check an hour ago, we were seeing the nasdaq down a half of 1%. it is now only down a 10th. we see weakness and retail stocks. i promised we would look at these hal the last hour. all these following as target cut its forecast. e's losing ground to
home depot and american eagle under pressure as well with sales at its namesake brand falling. for retail stocks that are up, because there are some of those as well today, urban outfitters coming up with numbers that the estimates and really seeing a surge in the shares today. citi trends is another specialty retailer. despite the sort of negative tone to a lot of retail news over the past six months, they have actually been outperforming the broader market here. the s&p retail index is and white. here's the s&p overall in blue. the outperformance in particular has come over the past several weeks as we have got more reassuring reports from some of the retailers, particularly within the department store industry. interesting that there is this stock performance and retail. scarlet: reality check, right? matt: scarlet's favorite movie is "reality bites." o up on mye g
terminal and you can see we have not got them speaking yet, but jim bullard is about to come out and speak. when he does, you will be able to watch and follow along on the blaber terminal. i just want to point that out because you brought up the fact that he is speaking. we got the text of his speech, but we have not seen him talk yet. you have some other movers as far as individuals. julie: if we have time for them, i will have them quickly. there is a news report that initial bids to buy the company's commercial aircraft leasing business top some analysts estimate. it looks like the first round offers top $4 billion, according to "the wall street journal." there's a potential deal in the banking industry. united bancshares and talks to acquire cardinal financial, according to people familiar with the matter. it would be the second regional
banking deal we have gotten the past month or so. cardinal up more than 6% on that. matt: think you very much. julie hyman there with stocks and bonds today. scarlet: let's check in on bloomberg first word news. mark richt and has more from the newsroom. rogerformer fox news ceo ailes is quickly making his presence felt on donald trump's struggling campaign. according to a person family with the matter, it was roger ailes who urged donald trump to overhaul his campaign leadership. and executive from breitbart news will be the new campaign ceo. he is a former goldman sachs banker. conway will be his campaign manager. they plan to do over the efforts for trump could tone down to a formal approach. up prisonts to clear space for last months to attempt. to include inmates who displayed good behavior in less than two years to serve. since the attempt, the turkish
government has detained 35,000 people for questioning. jurors have found a former banker guilty of insider trading. is a big victory for prosecutors who feared a recent appeals court ruling had tied their hands and fighting securities fraud. 35 euros jon stewart was convicted of tipping off his father on merges he learned about at perella weinberg and previously at j.p. morgan chase. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than one 20 countries, this is bloomberg . matt: the fomc will release the minutes from its july meeting in under an hour. iticymakers wants to see move toward its 2% goal, because morgan stanley says we cannot count on any other major economy to lead the world back from the break of inflation.
>> the fed policy has to promote inflation to reach the target. therefore, you cannot talk about a preemptive rate hike because it would kill this little baby called inflation, which we tried to nurse. matt: let us bring in joachim fels. your former colleagues saying that the u.s. has to lead the world back to inflation. do you agree? joachim: i agree that they have to leave the world back to inflation and i think they still have a lot of work to do. you saw the latest release for core inflation ticked down. what thetion, which fed is targeting, is way below the target. i think the fed has its work cut out. i think that means it will be very patient and very cautious
in hiking rates if they do it all. scarlet: that they do it all. you have different fed officials coming out saying that september is very much a live meeting. jeff bullard is speaking right now and repeating that he sees one hike through 2018 and perhaps this year. explain that. is that to give them the maximum option audi if they do not feel the need to raise rates? joachim: i think they are tried to keep the optio optionality. i do not think possible means likely. the problem is that they do not really have a smoking gun. inflation is below target, we have had two very strong labor market reports, but what i think has really changed in the mind of the fed is their view on the long-term outlook. i think that's a very important and very significant shift that we are seeing in all their speeches recently. they have revised down their own estimate of potential output growth. the means they believe
neutral interest rate is much lower than previously thought. it september when they do the next projections, these estimates of the long-term neutral interest rates will come down further. they have been coming down over the past few years but not enough. i think the fed has really weived in what what here at," called the new neutral at pimco call the ne new neutral. this is why i think it will be very patient. matt: i want to draw our viewers attention to the function on the bloomberg c. said go allows you to get a plethora of information about the fed. .ou can see the fomc forecast on the top left, you can cook on minutes in about an hour's time and get those from the last meeting. what do you think the fed has left to do? if you want to nurture this
inflation baby, deed need to tools otherr t than not hiking rates? joachim: absolutely. there are two ways on how you can do it. first of all, your vacation and do not hike interest rates and you hope that you let the economy run a little bit hot. you allow unemployment to drop further before hiking interest rates. that is one thing you can do. the other thing you can do is think about changing your strategy. i think what is interesting is that john williams, the president of the san francisco fed, talked about various options on how they could cope with the problem of the low neutral interest rate. he mentioned that one potential option is to raise the inflation target. that is a very extreme thing. he did not say we should do this, but it is something we should at least discuss and consider.
another option would be to move to something like price level targeting or nominal gdp targeting. these are all things that he mentioned. the whole idea is to allow inflation to run at a higher level so that when the next recession hits, your interest rates are still relatively low and you still have room to reduce religious rates. a lot of this will come on the table and it will be very interesting to see what janet yellen has to say in jackson hole on august .6, because that is the right venue to discuss potential strategy changes. scarlet: and to debate the merits of these different options. japan is already experiencing this. there's lots of debate over what that country can do. paul krugman says perhaps japan needs to also target higher inflation rate. for western europe and the u.s., it seems like runaway inflation in the past wins really large and kind of limits our willingness to target higher inflation. would you say that there is a
similar kind of restraint holding back a country like japan? joachim: i do not think so. i think in japan the problem is rather that after two decades of deflation or very low inflation, expectations are so low that you have to do a lot to bring them up. for japan to raise the inflation target now, i think that would not be very credible. they are having difficulties getting to the current target, which is 2%. they are at slightly below 1%. the thing for japan is not really to raise the inflation target anytime soon. i think what they need is more of a coronation between monetary and fiscal policy because so far, the central bank has been the only game in town. we are at the stage with the government is engaging and more fiscal expansion, but we could also see more coordination between the central bank and fiscal policy. i think this could be a much more effective way to raise actual inflation, and more important, inflation expectations.
that gets into the discussion of helicopter money. matt: i want to ask quickly that the germans seem to remember the 1920's than the americans remember the 1980's. is it possible to have higher inflation targets in europe or is that ruled out? joachim: i would not say it is impossible. in ecb actually back 2003-2004 did a strategy review.. at that stage, they actually raised the inflation target. previously it had been 0-2%. then they said that they are targeting something closer to 2%. they have done it before. i think it is possible but euro goes there, but i do not see this happening anytime soon. i think it's much more likely that it is something that starts in the u.s.. once the fed has implement it, it could then spread to other countries. that is not a story for this year. matt: thanks so much. great to get your take on things, yokin joachim fels from
scarlet: you are watching "bloomberg markets." i am scarlet fu. matt: i'm matt miller. scarlet: market signals are not quite what they used to be according to connor sent. he says that the fed is deferring to real-time economic , aa rather than its model shift that has large implications rather than markets responding to changes in the economy. the economy may split with the economy and react to changes in markets. they are choosing to invest passively like using etf's and the marginal buyer or seller is now companies who share buybacks or are deciding to issue equity.
in fixed income markets coming are looking at central banks or pension funds really dominating fund flows. you can see regulators just following in their following a couple of big major players rather than leading. matt: very interesting. conor sen, always a great writer. mes talkings hu about an emerging markets play. that is on the debt side. i have a look at the equity side. in our meeting this morning, you brought up the emerging markets index. i looked at this compared to the relative strength index. it is the blue line under the mx ef. every time the blue line gets to 70, that would mean that the mxef is poised to decline. i have marked with a red vertical lines here that that indeed happened. each time the rsi sees the index come off, now we see another hit
with the rsi getting above 70. that is where i circled it in yellow. that should be or could be a warning sign to investors that the msci emerging markets index, which has rallied of late, is poised to fall. scarlet: we talked to a lot of people and they say it's an early to middle stages of this rally. matt: is a very popular trade. scarlet: everyone is looking for trades and you cannot get it in the developed world. matt: going back since the beginning of 2012, it has not worked at the rsi level. coming up, the minutes of the latest fed meeting are due out in less than an hour. what we can expect to hear and what it could mean for the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
will dudley said a september hike is possible and that future rate hikes are being other estimated. -- underestimated. what do those minutes indicate? let's join carol massar and cory johnson on bloomberg radio for more. carol: thanks so much and we welcome everyone on tv. this is the bloomberg advantage. brooklyn the wire is with us. the fed minutes, we will get them in roughly 40 minutes. -- what areut for you looking out for? >> this comes up post brexit the. -- brexit vote. ony will watch a bit eggshells, but this fit the biggest risk is off the table .or now
are there certain phrases or words that you will be looking for? bricklin: we've got a lot of upgrades to the labor market where the economy is and strong showed up an awful lot. there's a lot of characterization where things look pretty good. the idea of the economy was still pretty good, but that labor market data and that we print that we got to the month of may is really going to stand out. it is tough to get too excited when that was the red light flashing. carol: do you feel like it is so backward looking at this point, looking at this juncture at what janet yellen have to say next week and that is what really matters at this point? bricklin: that is what our traders are telling us. carol: it is funny because we are talking to michael mcdonough and it is, quiet and mellow. we've not had a mellow august in many years. everybody kind of waiting for direction from yellen. bricklin: i'm afraid they're going to get a bit of a well
we could go or we couldn't go to the next payrolls report. we will be and this waiting pattern. i guess with the markets are looking for right now. i'm not sure they're going to get that from yellen, who will be cautious ahead of that. inflation,rms of inflation has been dead wrong -- the fed has been dead wrong on what will happen with inflation. do you expect them to shift their focus away from that discussion? bricklin: inflation is one of those things where they have been terrible at forecasting just about everything. as most of the market has. broaderfocusing on the economy and focusing on some these labor market momentum data , that has been their kind of go to to get away from the inflation story. we have obviously had a bit of
inflation data, which has been mixed. recent fed speakers said there are some signs of inflation picking up. carol: if nothing gets worse in terms of the u.s. economy, is it a done deal in your view that we get one more rate hikes this year? bricklin: pretty much. the timing of that is a bit of an the air. k andls is averaging 250 if we get a reasonable print at the beginning of september for the august payrolls, it is tough not to take that into account when you're making policy decisions. it is tough to look beyond that and say we need better than that. i think that is really setting the bar that the fed could go now. the market will play a big factor in that. right now, the fed needs to look at real data and decide whether or not that is good enough or whether they need to see a bit more. cory: we are not see much discussion about raising rates. would you expect any of that? outside of the fed commentary,
we see a lot of people talking about that. would we expect to see the fed start to address that in any of these minutes? bricklin: that is a tough road to go down about restoring ammunition. you're going to kind of create your own destiny there. if you move to early, you're going to basically promise that you will cut even more in the future. you cannot take that into account too much. carol: they are at a tricky point because -- got for that the economy starts to come undone, but they really do have ammunition, but they cannot play around with interest rates when they are the slope. that's an effective tool for them. bricklin: they would like to be focusing on that come about the problem is that they cannot get enough out of the way. carol: kind of an interesting point. and they're still looking at things globally. bricklin: absolutely. china continues to be a concern. europe continues to be a concern. looking even to the south. carol: we're going to leave it there. thank you so much. an interesting topic as we all
look ahead to janet yellen next week. dwyer joining us. we will break down the fed minutes on bloomberg radio and on liberty. -- and on liberty. bloomberg tv. matt: up next, we're going to talk to distressed debt investor hans humes. he is going all in on argentina. you will find out why. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. mark: donald trump's stock is dropping with americans have money -- you have money in the market. according to a survey, registered voters with investments in stocks and bonds pick trump over clinton 42% to 40%. clinton does better with those who have more than $50,000 invested. 60 miles east of los angeles, a monstrous wildfire has forced 80,000 people to evacuate their homes. many of them have been destroyed, but the exact number of losses is not yet known. the blaze has been described as devastating. many families will come home to nothing. issued the judge has of two olympic
athletes as the armed robbery against them's investigation continues. the judge says that there were contradictions, rather, in testimonies provided by both gold-medal winners. the head of the irish international olympic body, a high-ranking member of the international olympic committee, has been arrested in rio. he has been accused of scalping tickets to the game's. 71-year-old was arrested after a wider probe into illegal ticket sales, resulting in the seizure of more than 1000 tickets. global news, 24 hours per day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. matt? matt: i'm next guest is a who cuted that investor his teeth in argentina during the first financial crisis at the end of the last century. he now runs his own firm and was the only american creditor on the greek committee and is going
back into argentina. here to tell us why is hans humes. what is going on in argentina and why are you going back? that we's fair to say never left. some of the biggest money we made in argentina was over the last two to three years, when the country was doing poorly under the kershner and hernandez regimes. it was pretty widespread economic mismanagement. at that point investors were looking at it as a stop play. widening, they were into default in 2015 again for technical reasons. we have always maintained an investment there. at this point the opportunity on a spread basis, if you look at $13 trillion of the debt in negative yield, there's a quest for yield and a lot of inflows.
country ins the one the emerging market debt universe where you've got a political catalyst, a change for the better. christine fernandez is out. mockery is in. they're starting to do better economic management of their economy. matt: i said you are all in, maybe that's a little much, but what kind of investment are you making there? >> there is significant upside in this environment but the direct investment is a wave of money coming in to the country. i think it you have got an economy that has an starved for investment capital over the last decade. you have seen direct lending and equity investments. what about time horizon
? it might be a while before you see the result of those changes. good that's a really point. it can go further than that. there is background noise saying that argentina is a broken down car with a new paint job. doesn't mean the car is going to run. there is a lot of investor enthusiasm. but it takes a while. over two to five years you will see argentina reassert itself as one of the regional powers, economically. matt: so, what do you have to pay? what do you expect? i'm looking at crv f on the bloomberg. looking at argentina's curve compared to the u.s., there in green. switzerland there, blue at the bottom. you can see the tenor at 10 years, 5.5%. in a world where people want yield, that's good. more you have seen a lot
performance on the short end. people are getting more comfortable with argentina. you are starting to see pension funds domestically going further out. they have looked beyond 18 months. there is still real yield pickup across the board, but in argentina it looks very attractive because you are not dealing with an administration that will default because they feel like it for political reasons. these are orthodox economists in the administration. if you are willing to take some risks -- matt: you've got to hedge that currency, the peso has been the worst performer against the dollar year to date, right? hans: you got a lot of coming back to the market. 10 years out for argentina, you've got real world the cup. scarlet: talk about those internal risks.
the economy has problems, maybe this is just a paint job, but what externally could really hurt argentina at this point? as far as saying that these are just cosmetic changes, my argument is that these guys will actually do the fundamental changes that need to happen. i think that what you got overall in the economy is some situation where money is going to start coming in and you are going to get the fixes in the companies. this is a situation where the companies have not done well, the problem just came back. you are also going to get people coming back in, repatriating intellectual capital in the country. you've got a wave of money that was on the outside, sparking capital flight. and you've got a pretty well-educated population that can actually threaten a template
for growth. i'm not saying argentina is switzerland or germany, but it could perform a lot better than it has. matt: i'm guessing it's your favorite play right now. what else do you like? is it not? hans: the way i like to play it, you can take a look as well at the yield. matt: risk year? two weekss with him ago when he did his 101st jump. maybe less risk in the investment than the emerging economy. [laughter] what's risk year that you are attracted to? hans: in skydiving, if you've learned what you have to do, it's actually low risk. just like the stress tests testing. [laughter] scarlet: coming inside the bloomberg, i like this chart so much we are pulling it up again. the emerging markets index for equities. what you will see at the top is of course a price chart and on
the bottom is the relative strength index. you can see that that is a turning point. you've seen stocks decline. the relative strength is approaching levels that could argue for this equity index. the street loves emerging markets equities, that's the point, right? hans: potentially destabilizing for emerging-market debt, that's where people has gone -- have gone. now you are seeing people say -- play the equities. if they go back-and-forth between fixed income and debt, maybe you could see some selling off or debt refund purchasing. i don't think that's going to be the case. matt: we have bonds this year that look strong. this chart, a record rush in after the last couple of years. actually the last few months that we've seen record influx. you've got some momentum behind it and catalyst stories in
emerging markets. ,ack to your point, venezuela 2017 bonds are trading with an 80% yield. scarlet: 80%? matt: but you have to have the stomach for that kind of investment, right? binaryt's a kind of outcome, but you can make some good bang for the buck. matt: that isn't the kind of roller like to take. you aboutoing to ask the fed. the fed minister coming out, is argentina and emerging market? it's coming back in the emerging markets. worried are you that the fed is setting itself up for a surprise? listen, everyone was talking what the fed overall last year and through the beginning of this year. if you've got certain countries with, you know, a 400 basis isnt spread, a tightening
not going to make much of a difference. i think any kind of anticipated hikes over the let -- next six to 18 months, are we talking about 50 basis points possible? that would come because of economic strength in the united states. that might be, you know, tied in to the economy cycle. if you start getting a surprise announcement and it shocks the markets, then you've got something. scarlet: if it's rooted in the fundamentals? matt: i would argue that -- hans: i would argue that it's positive. matt: appreciate your time. let's go risk on right now. took me out to the blue sky ranch a couple of weeks ago. i jumped out, strapped to a very strong man, of course. one of the greatest days of my
♪ "bloombergs. markets." it is time for the bloomberg business flash -- it is "bloomberg markets -- this is "bloomberg markets." time for bloomberg business flash. banking chief says that the supervisory board should consider scrapping bonuses if the bank isn't paying shareholders. matt: the world's largest sovereign wealth fund may cut
back on the $520 billion equity portfolio, norway's fund come along a backstop is now selling lower yielding bonds to pay for real estate. if the norwegian government gives the green light. scarlet: nba players could be sporting emirates adds after the upcoming season. they are hoping to get their advertisements on team uniforms according to people familiar with the discussion. a pilot program for the next season. according to people familiar with the league, the sponsorships could generate $150 million in total revenue per year. and that is your business flash update. now, we are only 82 days away from the presidential election. investors want to know what trump or clinton presidency thed been -- would mean for economy. paul krugman offered his two
cents, starting with hillary clinton. central governance with cost proposals, a lot of people who are in the orbit of clinton supervisors think that clinton type policies with more infrastructure spending might have a bigger impact on growth then she's willing to assume. she's essentially assuming nothing in terms of growth impact. are not willing to bet the farm on it and make that the centerpiece. it's partly the question of seeing more in terms of the social safety net. there are some significant tax increases popping into the program. there is some really important stuff, some additions to obamacare. it's not that it's minor, but its continuation. for years you advocated more deficit spending and fiscal stimulus.
is the time for that over? whether we are talking clinton or trump, is there still a case to be made? paul: there is. it's a different case. two or three years ago you could say that we needed demand desperately. that the fed was using qe as a marginal tool at best. now the economy might be close to full employment. we don't know that. but the risks are hugely symmetric. suppose there is a problem in china that springs back on us. more problems in housing or something then we are aware of now. we have very little room to maneuver. the cannot do more than it's doing. policy would be useful as insurance. and we know that it can't be started on short notice. this is the kind of thing we should be doing. there's a precautionary case that we desperately need it right now. and then, yeah, also, we can
borrow very cheaply and we need infrastructure. >> something that carl icahn said, he spoke with erik schatzker earlier today. carl: trump's policies are possibly the only thing that will save us from going down this decline in productivity. >> of course, the latest productivity numbers were disappointing. what do investors, big business, and policymakers misunderstand most about activity? sure mostly -- i'm not what they misunderstand, but what he's pretending to misunderstand is that the president has very little to do with it. this is a global phenomenon across the world. the best guess is that we are in the lull in technology. we are having all of these fairly small things. is nothing a president can do about that.
>> we've been trying to discern if there is a market reaction likely to a clinton or trump presidency and it's hard to figure out how the market will react uncertain wins or polls. should investors be concerned? people who are trading and making money in the markets, how should they be thinking about a trump presidency? paul: we don't know what he would do, and that's the problem. wouldn't even think about it as an investor. nevermind -- one nuclear war could spoil your whole day. nevermind my investments, how about my life? we just wanted to mention that hillary clinton is speaking right now at a campaign rally in cleveland. there she is, speaking and responding to some of the charges that donald trump has made.
we asked paul krugman for his take on growth in this environment. paul: there's an accumulation of evidence that monetary policy is effective. we came into this thinking that it at zero rate was ineffective. then came the qe and a rates, which i didn't think was possible, but it turns out these are all things that central banks can do but it isn't doing very much. scarlet: that was paul krugman on "what you miss -- what'd yo u miss." matt: this is bloomberg. ♪
latest on the equity market retreating again. julie: basically i want to take a bit of a tour going into the fed minute release in less than 10 minutes now. let's start with hans. we aren't seeing much -- let's start with bonds. we aren't seeing much changing here. overall, not seeing much movement. as for the u.s. dollar, we have ,een watching that as well rebounding today after three days of losses. what's interesting is that yesterday we saw yields move up but the dollar did not on the back of those bill dudley comments that september was a possibility for a rate increase but that possibility is coming today. we've also been taking a look at the possibility of rate hike odds versus bonds, and interesting track here. blue, ther yield in probability that the fed will raise rates by the end of the
year, this got back above 50% for the first time going back to pre-the u.k. vote on exiting the european union. gohave seen bond yields sideways since then. it's been an interesting divergence. now let's take a quick look at stocks, if we could. as matt mentioned, back here in the red, not by much, very little change as we wait for the release, it tends to be quite reactive to what interest rates are doing, seeing a little bit .f a increase we will be checking on most of the stuff following the minutes. to see how all of these are behaving. in a couple of minutes the july fomc meeting will be released. in the meantime, joe weisenthal joins us. a lot of talk around these fed
minutes because of the discover -- the discussion by fed officials about perhaps rethinking the fed paradigm. joe: it's interesting, they cut rates going back, cut them to zero and then embarked on qe and then decided to resident unwind qe by hiking rates. they got on this path but now that they are on it there is suddenly a lot of discussion about what is the best approach to stimulus in the first place. what was striking were the ideas that have been kicked around for a while but were not notable. we have seen dudley floating a balloon to the markets. clearly, they are trying to push
-- what do we call it? maximum option now the? do you think they do that with ty?maximum optionali do you think they do that with the markets? joe: that seems entirely plausible. when thee been times minutes really diverged. the minutes was that set up the idea that they were going to get a hike at the end of the year. you can get real surprises, but i think that what you are seeing is exactly right. maximum option alley, if we had theyzing hot report wouldn't want to give the impression that this is impossible. you wantof course, if to check on what the fed is saying or doing, you can find it here on the bloomberg under the research blog.
matt: you will be able to get the minutes on the top left 13 there. right there, minutes. take what you want and use a menu button. [laughter] drop by at any time and i will give you a lesson. [laughter] scarlet: joe weisenthal, thank you. we will of course be discussing the minutes today with joe on "what'd you miss?" just four minutes to go until the fomc minutes release. don't go anywhere. we will have all the details for you.
he will be watching to see how those come out, if there are any changes, looking for stuff on the inflation and the economy. >> markets are pretty calm. the s&p 500 markets are down 1/10 of 1%. erik schatzker is now live in washington. erik: there is a battle over rates raging inside the federal reserve. that is a clear take away from the minutes of the federal open market committee meeting that was just released here at the fed moments ago. the minutes revealed what appears to be a growing and increasingly frustrated contingent of fed officials who believe the central bank needs to raise rates, either now or very soon. of course we know from the statement back on july 27 that the president of the kansas city -- voted in a favor favor of