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tv   Trending Business  Bloomberg  August 18, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm EDT

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♪ rishaad: it is friday, the 19th of august. i am rishaad salamat. you're watching "trending business". ♪ rishaad: right. ,e'll take you to sydney beijing, and tokyo this hour. regional stocks on the of 24%
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from their lows. , setntering a bull market for its biggest weekly gain since march on speculation opec will freeze production. the collapse in commodities has left a trail of victims. mongolia in an epic meltdown and the world's worst performing currency. do follow me on twitter at @rishaadtv, include #trendingbusiness. the market open for greater china, several other indices and exchanges coming online. let's have a look at what is happening so far. up.d: things have picked it was a quiet start. there's not much to trade on, except for oil. i will get you an oil chart in a moment. have a look at the open.
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up ahead of the gdp print. we have a 10 year chart. not exactly stellar growth, .70% estimate. who needs growth if you are getting inflows and equity gains? look at that. july, seven?t of art folioon net inflows, the most in asia so far this year. we are watching the oil plays lead gains across the asia-pacific. where are we with oil prices? here we go. up 3% overnight. 50 for that contract.
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, so it entered a bull market overnight. we are adding to those gains, but it is not just oil. when you have the dollar weakening, it provides a left to commodity prices. dollar index, here we go, poised for a second straight weekly drop, 94.28 is your level. that gain ang little bit, so a pullback are cross majors like sterling, down .10%. the currency in focus has been dollar-yen. it is approaching 150. a lot of this comes down to short covering. it closed at 100 for the first november of 2013. rishaad: week energy prices hurting australian oil and gas
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producers. let's found out more. great to see you. santos announcing a loss of more than $1 billion. we knew this was coming, didn't we? all that bad news out of the way at the start of the week. most of that loss is made up from a $1 billion impairment charge. stakesely they have a 30% in that plant and have to buy gas at the moment on the spot market to keep it going. if we look at santos stock, looking good, up .50% because oil prices rallied and the bad news got out of the way at the start of the week. up 3.30%.lso rising, million dollars net profit,
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still down 50% on year, because week energy prices. there had been expectation that they might make more than that, but revenue down 24% to $1.94 billion. rishaad: thanks a lot for that. let's stay with commodities. the collapse in prices leaving victims globally. mongolia is one of them, one of the worst affected. the currency is the world's worst performing. our chief asia economics correspondent is with me now. this is a full-blown classes, and you know it is a crisis when the government says we are in a deep economic crisis. used afinance minister televised address to speed to the nation. during the commodity go-go years, foreign investment poured deep pool of gold,
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iron ore, and copper. fine until china started to slow down and commodity prices corrected. mongolia found itself in a more difficult situation. thatad: it is astonishing they reduced the interest-rate's from 12% to 10.5%. then we saw that move. >> this story is -- rishaad: the reminds me of the crisis in the early 1990's. of a has all the hallmarks classic and balance of payments crisis. it is a full-blown crisis in mongolia. the problem they are in this they have a slowing economy and a huge debt while. they can't take stimulus. rishaad: how can the authorities respond? >> they are boxed into a corner.
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view is that mongolia has to get a grip on its spending and debt. hasas huge repayments and potentially a problem to get the revenue to make those payments. local tv is covering reports that half the hospitals of being left, civil service wages cut by 60%. rishaad: that becomes a spiral to the downside, doesn't it? can they avoid a default? debt.y have a lot of they are preaching they will avoid a default. officials arrived this week for talks. at the very least, the risk of restructuring is on the horizon. do think mongolia will come out of it unscathed without investors taking a knock, it is
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hard to see at this stage. you very much indeed. right. let's look at some other stories we are watching for you today. here is a roundup. rosalind: moody's revised outlook for five australian banks to negative, anz, commonwealth, westpac, anz. environmentenging for lenders for the rest of the year could lead to deterioration for profit growth and asset quality. moody's also says of the banks maintain strong liquidity as buffers and high profitability. commonwealth bank up by 0.6% right now. watch when macau starts trading. the firstbled 21% in half to $142 million, and gave
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gaming revenue continued to fall. they hope to boost earnings in the coming quarters. china's biggest air-conditioning a crying ans electric vehicle and battery maker. they will finance the $2 billion purchase by selling new shares. it is a privately held company with the market share of 3.6% and china, but it is up against alibaba and other big companies pouring resources into developing new energy vehicles. government has been promoting clean energy vehicles to upgrade the manufacturing sector and cut pollution. companystani utility k-electric is seeing interest from two chinese suitors in buying a controlling stake. a 60%re competing for holding in k-electric.
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billionred at $1.5 based on the coveted stock price on thursday. sources say the two companies are among bidders and asked to submit by the end of this month. rishaad: thank you very much indeed for that. how digitalng at payments are shaking up asia's credit card industry. it is a good read. it is at set to slip, why citigroup sees a downside for the yen. why some people are positioning for a pullback in the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: a quick check of markets, chief market strategist , let's get over to him.
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how would you characterize what is going on right now? bit of a silly season in august with global items. >> very low volumes, very light volatility. the part of the market that i look at from an equities perspective is the mid-cap space, australia or u.k. or united states. space, not the largest and not the smallest, gives me an indication of where the conviction is. in australia, it is reporting season. we've looked through a lot of results. in thes no direction mid-cap space, moyne's low. in the united states, the vix is low, suggesting equity markets are capping out. we think the head will move in the fourth quarter, and that might be a trigger to pull equities back. rishaad: in your notes to say because the vix is so low, there is a lot of complacency about to
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set in. when you look at price to earnings multiples for major markets, approaching 90 or 20, that looks overstretched, doesn't it? >> it does. that is driven by where rates are, where global rates are. post-brexit, we had that shock and the boe came out aggressively and central banks around the world, the fed a lot more time, the reserve bank and austria cut again, the japanese moved. it provided another layer of are not but results shooting the lights out. we are not having topline growth, earnings beating market expectations. markets are fully valued, volatility is low, so that is when complacency comes in and people buy for the sake of buying and use the interest rate narrative as a reason to buy, but when it comes to equities,
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they should only be valued relative to earnings on merit, and i think that comes back to your point about complacency is definitely there. --haad: ok, but when we indeed what is happening there at the moment, we look to this week's big news in hong kong, china, the announcement of the shenzhen connect, four months away, you are interested in the online tech space in china. this should be a boon for you. that we are sois excited about the tech space in china, but getting investment grade exposure at a reasonable price is hard. are thosee prefer listed in the united states, , for example, a retailer that is cementing its place as the amazon of china, but there is also ambiguity.
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we have seen what has happened to alibaba shares. get thathard to investment grade exposure. it is not as wide or deep as the u.s. or u.k. tech space, so it is a hard job to invest in this space, but we think it is a multi-decade theme and the will be a lot of investment opportunities in developed markets around them. , butad: so not just china it is a crowded trade, isn't it? >> very crowded. there are only a handful of names that are of investment grade, and they attract the largest capital flows. in the united states, the depth and width of all the ,echnologies names is so large so you don't necessarily have that undeveloped markets, but i think it will change because of the maturity of that online market. there will be are a lot of
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hard too it, and it is sidear invest in at the moment. if you're looking for a multi-decade theme, as were the commodities were, that was a very large theme. we still believe fundamentally that china's underlying technology space is a huge theme. rishaad: right. let's look at commodities, getting away from equities for a moment. people talk about the gold rally , it is spent now. do you share that view? if you do, where else would you look in that space? >> i have been trading gold relative to other metals. i have been trading the gold to silver ratio, a ratio where we have hundreds of years of price information, and you don't necessarily have get the underlying price movement and gold right.
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you just play that ratio relative to silver, it is a bullish-bearish type of strategy. gold over oil, we think the gold price rally is going to be capped by the recovery in oil. if you look at the gold to oil ratio, there is a long history of that ratio, and it has peaked and oil needs to catch up and it has not shot the lights out for the last couple of years. we like the ratios. you don't need to get the underlying market move right, but you can do well in flat markets when one moves relative to the other. rishaad: thank you a lot for that. have a great weekend. a quick check on the business flash headlines. rising, thelmart company raising annual earnings forecast on better than anticipated results, sales up straight gameth
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they have had. consumer sentiment is stable. target reported to slow down. executive will step down as part of a settlement resolving the company's legal disputes with sumner redstone. the idea is that it is designed to in litigation in three states against the redstone family. officer willrating serve as interim chief executive. step up and sprint battle for subscribers, revamping rates to appeal to users who want unlimited streaming and web surfing. new pricing for both carriers underscores a push to sign up heavy day to users to monthly plans. the news coming with sprint owner softbank keen on a merger. coming up, stopping the swings, a look at what hong kong is doing to slow the wild ride in stocks. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: you are back with "trending business". uber fails to win court approval for a multi-million dollars settlement with drivers. that, uber may still come out on top the company is driving ahead with self driving cars. >> two big hits of news for herb or -- for uber and the self driving world. to putthey are ready self driving vehicles on the road in pittsburgh. you will still need a driver behind the wheel for safety, but uber customers will be able to take a ride in an autonomous vehicle very soon. they will have over 100 cars from volvo in the $300 million
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deal on the road in pittsburgh. that is a big move. and mountaineet view, but this is the first time that regular people will be able to get to ride around in a city in autonomous vehicles. tesla has its own autopilot technology. that is the first part of the news. purchaser said it will a trucking company with a lot of prominent ai researchers working on an autonomous truck. of uber'ssition is 1% share price, $680 million, which is a huge acquisition for uber, a company not willing to make big purchases. it is a company that really wants to do it itself. if it helps out a big autonomous trucking business, the employees and founders would get 20% of profit sharing from that business.
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it is a big deal they have made. both of those are positioning , saying autonomous vehicles are central to their success as a company. uber just left china, cut this idi to get a 20% stake of the business in china, and now uber is saying we need to make another big financial bet. they can't help but take big risk and they are back at it in the autonomous space. rishaad: hong kong exchanges and clearing will introduce measures to deal with extreme price swings. they will roll out a volatility control mechanism. why does hong kong need this? tell us what it does first. >> if there is a price swing because of erroneous orders,
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shares moving up and down by some limit, say 10%. minuteskick in for five where traders can only trade within the bounds. we will see if there is a tour reason to go up or down or whether it was a computer sending wrong orders from its algorithmic trading. rishaad: where does this leave people when it comes to price discovery. does it to start that? >> it is only for five minutes, then trading will continue as normal. if there was a true reason for something to rise and fall, traders will continue to do this and it will find the true value where it should be. the five minutes gives you an opportunity to see if there is a mistake there. exchanges dother this? will this improve the market? what is the thinking? >> in china at the beginning of this year, they had circuit breakers, freezing trading until the end of the day. they had to scrap it because you
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remember how it went wrong. connected toange shenzhen has already connected itself to shanghai. more chinese investors will be coming here. it may increase volatility in the market here, so that's why it's good to have it. rishaad: thank you. is how at futures, this the hong kong hang seng looks now. there we go. seng, lookingg for that opening proper coming up, and futures given high. the nikkei to the upside by .50%. the yen around 100 at the moment. wellington, a quick snapshot of the session there. we do have apparently an after-hours story across the board. the aussie dollar a tad weaker
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at $.76. coming up, the secret zombie are that china's banks simply not allowed to see. we will have a look at that. a lot of banks would love to get hold of this list. they can't get it. it is not quite what i had in mind when talking about zombie companies, but i'll leave you with this beautiful images. ♪
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♪ rishaad: i look at our top stories, asian equities on the up, brent crude at $50, the retreating yen helping the topix rebound, signs in the u.s. and developed economies that they will keep on a terry policy lose. -- will keep monetary policy
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lose. oil set for its biggest weekly rise since march. growing speculation about major producers and how they could acted to freeze output next month. stock house declining a tad, oil climbing 20% since hitting $40 a barrel. austrianrgy hitting oil and gas producers. billiona loss of 1.1 dollars loss. side with its first-half profit cut in half because of low prices, net income down to 340 million dollars from $679 million at year ago. its bid for oil search was rejected last year. market open in hong kong, shanghai, don't think shanghai got the memo. david: we are down a 10th of 1%.
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the way up,bts on highest level since april. things have picked up. theooks like we will end week on a high note, except for japan, but still poised for about 2%. taiwan gdp comes out this afternoon at the same time the central bank in indonesia were bring rates down by .25%. , opal in shanghai lighting, 20% on its first day. , noteason i bring that up 20%, my mistake. 44%. the reason i am bringing this up as you get a sense that things are picking up, by him's, etc. on the chinese mainland. it'syou have these ipos, going to limit up regardless of what they do. anything wrongis
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with this one, but what we have seen as these guys have started to pick up and outperform. just something to keep in mind. other things we are following in hong kong, have a look at this. kunkun, a surge in volume when it comes to call options. soho china out with earnings outerday, for brokerages with their changes and ratings. let me look at my notes to make sure. thatcher china getting a decent bed today as oil prices are at 50, if you look at brent. now entering a bull market overnight. rishaad: thanks, david. als table, the
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u.s. have 100 and total, 35 gold. great britain in second place. china with 20, its worst performance in two decades. it may not be winning the race when it comes to the olympics, but it could be winning the race when it comes to brazilian assets. it is the biggest buyer with $4 billion in purchases so far. what is driving china's interest in brazil? don't tell me it is the commodity side of things and agriculture. >> that commodity prices are stabilizing. ofwould help getting a lot chinese interest. more importantly would be the cheap valuation. the currency depreciated a lot from its highest level, 50% down so are a lot of depreciation on the currency side. rishaad: making these assets she
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been dollar terms. >> yes. the sellers are willing to sell because they are in debt. they are looking for buyers and capital. resources very good in renewable energy, commodities, even agriculture. that is attracting a lot of chinese interest. rishaad: is it more welcoming because of that for chinese investors? >> generally brazil has a much more relaxed regime towards chinese investors, where's the u.k., u.s., and australia, we are seeing a lot more scrutiny. last week, we had the austrian government blocking a deal to sell a power network to chinese investors, citing national security issues. seeaad: are we likely to more chinese deals in brazil towards the end of the year? yes, definitely.
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a lot of european and north american companies are trying to cut down investment in brazil and focus on home markets. that is creating a lot of opportunities for chinese. rishaad: thank you for that. we would check on some other stories. office space in hong kong expected to be subdued, properties. swire underlying profit declined to $457 million from 622 million dollars a year ago. the chief executive telling us that there is no sign of a turnaround in the hong kong market. softness still seeing in luxury retail and hong kong. we have seen it for a while now. we saw it coming. we reacted. we are making a lot of great changes, designed to deal with that softness. in extendedging
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trading as it aims at making machinery to make semiconductors. analysts are expecting $.48 a share. the company is banking on increased orders from upgraded equipment. the gap continue to tumble in the second quarter. it includes all navy and banana republic brands, and said sales were down to $3.8 billion compared to $3.9 billion year ago. the chief executive is trying to drive a turnaround plan, including closing stores. he says he is encouraged by signs of progress. japan may scrap a tax incentive that limits the amount of work married women can undertake as part of the plan to encourage ine female for dissipation the workforce and counter a labor shortage. is there an alternative to this? private discussions in the
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government are taking place to revise this policy in place since 1961. the government is trying to work out ways to eliminate this advantage. it currently goes to a couple when that woman earns less than ¥1 million. it was claimed by 15 million families last year. revise theent could policy to consider the combined income of the couple. to encourage more people into the workforce. if we look at nonregular workers and the japanese workforce, 56% of women holding nonregular or part-time jobs, compared to 22% of men, and there is evidence that the tax benefit has discourage women from advancing their careers. third ofrvey said a women curtail our survey could claim this tax break.
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rishaad: do voters support such a policy switch? >> as you can see from that 2011 survey, a lot of people like claiming it, but attitudes are starting to change. an analyst from goldman sachs tax system would incentivize women to work more full-time jobs and lead to higher incomes and benefits for families. the prime minister raise this idea and 2014. at that time, a poll found that 80% of the women support revising the benefit. rishaad: old attitudes die hard at the end of the day. attitudes, the deduction is not the only impediment for female participation in the workforce. >> it is similar to other that isd countries, childcare. the government needs to come up
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with a policy that willing courage women back into the workforce, but at the same time pay them enough to make it worth their time. as women transition from part-time to full-time, there the contributes into the workforce is what the prime minister is looking for an trying to decrease this gap and later -- labor shortage. rishaad: right. up next, let's have a look at the yen. , breaching 100 again that psychologically important barrier this week. it did so tries -- twice. we will look at the prospects. you're watching bloomberg. ♪
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♪ ofhaad: secret lists so-called zombie borrowers are being withheld from china's banks. our china correspondent is all
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over this. tell us about this a little bit. tom: two words you don't want to hear when you talk about a nations economic health, sotheby's and secrets. ine provinces in china have drawing up lists of so-called zombie companies, companies overburdened bite that, operating in sectors where there is overcapacity, and companies that may well be wrapped up. keeping those lists secret. this came out as a result of what we heard from the boss of icbc, who said he has been trying to get hold of the secret lists they are, but to no avail. he thinks that is because there is great concern that if he does see the list, there will be a lack of confidence from him and his competitors and that will cut funding to these companies. to put this into the of, this is important for the banks. they need to know who they are lending to and the quality of the corporate's or companies
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they are lending to, particularly as china's bad loans ratio rises, the number of bad loans up to levels we have not seen since 2005. we have a chart that shows this. we are above levels in 2008 when the bank was bailed out. we are closing in on levels in 2005. bad loan ratio and china is according toat is official numbers, and many question those official numbers and say it is likely to be far, far higher. song the list,f secret lists of zombie companies, makes it that much more difficult for china's banks. rishaad: what does this mean for official efforts to wind companies up and tackle overcapacity? course it articulates just
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how difficult it is for the central government to on one side one to encourage the banks to make sure that bad loans don't keep increasing, that they can deal with those bad debts. on the other hand, that companies in provinces are restructuring state owned enterprises around the coal, steel, and cement sector, sectors that consultants mckinsey say if for properly reformed, it could at $5.6 trillion to the chinese economy between now and 2030. but it comes at a price. if you really address the bad loans and push through those reforms, an additional 180 billion dollars worth of bad loans would be added to the high bad loan file. loan title. it's based to the complexities of this issue. that through is incredibly difficult because of the competing demands around this issue.
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to look at one province, which itself has said it will close 205: mines, the province where icbc is trying to get hold of the secret zombie lists. the minds, butg will be faced with higher unemployment. they are also under pressure to 7%p china deliver 6.5% to gdp target and maintain social stability, so lots of divergent pressures making this issue very difficult. you are seeing that articulated in the messages we get out of the governing bodies in beijing. the pboc, one of their chief economist saying zombie companies do need to be tackled soon. too saying that this debt equity program and plan the government has drawn up needs to be delivered on, but you are also hearing from a powerful state body that oversees many of the sectors suffering from overcapacity, saying this needs to be approached in a moderate
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manner to avoid any risks. so it is a complex issue, competing pressures, and the secret list of zombie companies articulates just how difficult it is for the banks, provinces, and central government. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. it must be awful for somebody employed by one of those companies. markets, a push back on the yen, retreating and going up above that psychologically important 100 level, seeing that affecting what is happening way comes to the stocks there in tokyo, getting a bit of a lift from those exporters. a bit of dollar weakness out there as well. over to singapore, gtn fx strategy, what is the most important thing in your space right now? we are looking at that dollar weakness.
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the likelihood is that the dollar will continue to lose some ground over the next week. the overall tone we are hearing from the fed over the past several speakers, it does seem to be a bit of a new theme, focusing on the potential for the natural rate of interest to be lower or for the fed to target higher inflation. i think that is seen as laying the groundwork for a fairly dovish and set of comments from janet yellen. if you look at the price action, it does not look like the short dollar is overextended, so i think that will continue and this will be the dominant theme. the biggest beneficiaries will be a emerging markets. currencies like aussie and kiwi in particular look very well positioned given the positive their high credit quality and low political risks. they don't have many peers in
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terms of what people will be looking at when they look to sell the dollar. rishaad: what will change the dollar's direction? what would be the catalyst in your view? of course it has to be the fed, but it may not be. think that we can start ticking off as some of the potential factors. what has become clear over the past month or so is that stronger u.s. data is not going to be enough to turn this around without validation from a more hawkish fed. the risks for a more hawkish fed keeps getting pushed back further and further into the future, so we don't really see this trend to turning. there are some international threats, shocks related to china or europe, but the overall theme central banks are pumping liquidity into the
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global economy, and i think that is positive for risk appetite and means any pullbacks we see will probably be shallow as investors look to add yield. rishaad: what about the yen? at 100.w we have been below 100. the path of, is least resistance for the yen to the upside? are the central banks really, well, cognizant and do they care? >> do other central banks care? i don't think other central banks will be concerned with a bit of yen strength of this point. the only reason that international authorities would be concerned with a stronger yen would be if that was the stabilizing there werir market. stronger yen
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contribute to a lower nikkei, but that has not been the case this time around. that means international authorities are not going to be that concern, and even if japan wants to suggest that there might be some degree of cooperation in terms of its efforts to weaken the yen, i think that other countries will be unsympathetic. i think it will be very tough for japan to turn this around, particularly ahead of the boj. my expectation would be dollar-yen trades lower. i think we can head deep, towards 95, at this point. rishaad: let's talk about the bounce up in the euro. it's like the yen when the boj came out and the currency went in the other direction. strengthe seeing euro when the fundamentals look for. >> you are exactly right. this is becoming a theme for global central banks. the rba had trouble, and now we are seeing the euro appreciate.
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i can't say i like the euro on its own merits. when we look at the longer-term impact from the u.k. referendum, the strength we are seeing in euro probably under cells the severity of that event. continues if it does to rally, we will get to a selling opportunity, so the questions you want to ask at this point are whether or not positioning is stretched, and to what extent the strength will drive more dovish policy from the ecb. tohink we are getting closer a tipping point when it comes to those factors, so i don't see sustained upside for the euro from here. rishaad: have a great weekend. right. panic? apple hitting a hurdle with the planned upgrade to its watch. we will tell you why. ♪
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rishaad: apple may have hit watch.s in its apple was trying to release a watch this year that can connect to cellular networks or theynational carriers, but sort of hit a roadblock earlier this year. they were telling partners, executives, and engineers that the cellular data chips would concern too much battery life to be useful. they drained so much battery life, then there is no reason to launch the product until it is ready. >> what is the effect of this?
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will it hurt apple watch sales or iphone sales? will have think it much of an effect on the iphone. i think it will have an effect on people who are holding out to buy the apple watch this year because they were hoping there would be a cellular model, but this does not change what has occurred since the product's launch. people hope cellular would break the watch away from the phone, but that one not happen this year. >> ok. going to see this new lineup and these new features then? >> we will see a new model this fall with some new features, a new health tracking functionality, and improvements
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to the way it can since your location. gpst now it utilizes the chip in your iphone, which means you have to be connected to it to go on a run or walk and get accurate data for your fitness applications. with the gps built into the watch, users will be able to do what they want while leaving the phone behind because they apple watch can store music on its internal drive. rishaad: right. a quick look at some stories making headlines, the state bank of india approving a merger that would combine three units. the country's largest lender will offer 22 shares for every 10 shares, 28 shares for every 10 shares. allowing them to begin consolidation talks in june as it tries to strengthen india's fragmented banking industry. the government of singapore may
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help companies struggling to make debt obligations. -- budget measures may be introduced if conditions worsen. ubs analysts have warned that more bonds may default without further help. oil traders betting opec members will act to
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♪ >> from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." mike morrow lose here. he is acting director of the cia. a contributor from cbs news but resigned in order to endorse hillary clinton. you wrote an op-ed in "the new york times" that donald trump poses a threat if elected president. his book was released in paperback yesterday. i'm pleased to have him back at the table. welcome. what does this book mean to you? you had how many years in the cia?


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