tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 24, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
scarlet: u.s. stocks closing lower. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" scarlet: hp earnings in minutes. economy,peninsula silicon valley's growth adding jobs at more than double the national average. matt: turkey begins a major offensive in syria. blackrock says politics in turkey are more stable than understood. scarlet: we begin with market minutes, the worst they for the s&p 500 in three weeks. mores not risen or fallen than 1% and 33 days. matt: the range of 0.72%. joe: it is remarkable that it is
one of the worst days we can remember in a long time. scarlet: led by drugmakers, the real laggards here. mylan,f you look at negative publicity building for the amount of charges for its epipen. that needs producer an epipen all the time because of allergies. if you don't have it, you can dive. to raisehas been able the price to $600. was $57, so epipen they have raised the price quite a bit. hillary clinton and congress want answers. all of the big drugmakers are
down, allergan, merck, am gen, many big, heavily weighted companies are on the s&p, and that's a you see the drag. joe: let's check out what is going on in south africa. here are some 30 year yields. you want some yield? here are some. there's the concern about the finance minister, he is in dispute with the president, what kind of legal issues he could face. yields are shooting up. higher in yields are the west today, but on a smaller scale. a modest take higher, 1.56 on the 10 year. scarlet: let's talk about the turkish lira.
turkey launched its biggest military operation in syria to fight back against isis. did parents losses after joe biden voiced support for turkey during a visit. north korea launched a ballistic missile, so a lot of geopolitical concerns here. the weakness in the won is a relief to the government. over the past three months, the won was one of the best performers. that is painful for the nation's when you compare it to the yen. joe: oil has been swinging back-and-forth, but has not had a good day, down 2.8%. it had rallied earlier in the week on the hopes that oil-producing countries would
come together. let's check out gold, which also got hit pretty hard. early in the morning getting slammed, down by 1.4%. the theme of the day between treasuries, yields rising, goal ,own,'s docs flipping expectations of rate cuts across the board. atrlet: i'm looking dollar-yen. it is seen as the most sensitive pair. this is volatility for dollar-yen. volatility for one month, your white line, is spiking pass the three month, the blue line. why is that? the one-month captures the boj meeting, and you can see that the first dayy, the boj meeting fell in line with the calendar.
the one week, the purple line, is fairly low, which proves that traders are more concerned about the boj meeting than janet yellen in jackson hole. whatyou can isolate traders are looking at. it will be fun to look at these as we get closer to the election . i mentioned earlier oil swinging, and i saw this great chart that i wanted to show. these are the different bear and bull markets for oil in the last year. one year ago, a bull market, 25% big redt, then this bar, a 48% plunge through january, then an 88% rally from andary to the peak in june, a 20% bear market from june to
early august, and now another bull market, 21% up. bull and see that many bear markets within one year, but it speaks to how dramatic the swings and oil have been. what i am looking at is year end forecast for the s&p 500. , the consensusrt forecast is below where we are, so wall street strategists typically are more bullish than any time near the present, and we are trading at 2170 and change. boa merrill lynch forecast is at 2000. you can see how far below consensus they are. hsbc, 1960.arish is they are outliers on a lot of
different calls. very cool stuff. hpqlet: breaking news, reporting revenue beating billion versus9 $11.46 billion expected. bynings-per-share topping three cents, $.48. in terms of full-year outlook, hp lowered the upper end of its forecast and now only looking for 162 earnings-per-share. previously it was looking for 165. $4.42 billion was the printing revenue. printing accounts for 80% of
profit according to ubs. .t should be the focus matt: this is essentially bad bank. hp split into good bank, the growth side, services, software, and bad bank. pq and i compare it to its peers, you can see out of , 15 saysts that rate it uy, and no y b sells. joe: for more on today's market and -- i want to bling bring in michael regan. what jumps out at you? >> this trading range we have
been stuck in forever is holding firm, a little selloff today, stuck in we have been this flat narrow trading range, there has really been a rotation going on over the past month industries,clical technology, financials, industrial companies leading, and not so much utilities, consumer staples, high dividend stocks, so it begs the question. is this a rotation from one leadership to another? that has not been the case all year with strong cyclicals in the lead. since 1958, s&p 500 dividend yield is the highest it has been relative to the 10 year
yield since 1958, that was before any of us were born. >> is the lowest the treasury yield has been. matt: that's true. there is the animal spirits of charisma about the economy. i have been a pessimist. i felt these high valuations would make it tough for the market to keep rallying from here. there are some things that you can look at and say the economy is improving. one of the things is the atlanta fed gdp forecast. scarlet: it shot up recently. >> yeah, 3.6% now. quarter wase second hamstrung a little bit because of inventories.
so maybe this is a bounce back from that. surprising to see that strong growth forecast from the atlanta fed. the: how accurate is atlanta gdp fed as a predictor of real gdp? >> the consensus we track is less than half of that, so we will have to see who is right, but the latest reports being that strong, to have that indicator look at healthy. matt: since it is part of the federal reserve bank system, do they have to be more optimistic? they have to attach more weight to it? it's based more on the data as it comes in rather than a central banker making a forecast. it has shown a more plastic view -- more pessimistic view in other times in the cycle. anrlet: this is more
indicator of the overall economy because you're talking about job growth there. >> i agree. this report yesterday is fascinating for several reasons. %,me sales jumped 12 highest since 2007. to be very a reason optimistic about the economy, not just homebuilders, but the overall economy in general. if you look at the home it's lowestte, since 1965. scarlet: millennials, go buy homes. >> exactly. it is all demographic. --ooked up the average home first-time homebuyer age, 33 years old. ironically that was the age i bought my first home at. regan, thank you very
the school and they entered the university. someone just called and said the wounded just died. the security forces should find a way to enter, otherwise everyone will get killed. security forces are searching the campus for the attackers. the incident comes after two university staff were kidnapped by unknown gunmen, their whereabouts unknown. the italian prime minister visited the site of the earthquake and pledged government support for the area. killed at least 120 people and rescue crews are combing through the rubble for survivors. louisiana officials have issued an order to speed up the removal of debris, mattresses, furniture , and carpets can be taken to demolition landfills. has set a record
for o's are seized to resume for 2015, more than 2 million foreign visitors. that sentthe country the most, united kingdom second. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" the mosttocks slumping as the country launch the biggest military operation in syria. it's not the only nation. there's more unrest in south america. portfolio manager of the blackrock strategic global fund joins us now. a failedst 4-6 weeks, coup, multiple terrorist attacks, downgrades by credit ratings agencies, yet turkish bonds and stocks all did pretty well.
they are among the top performers. from a valuation perspective, turkey is on the stretch to side. -- stretched side. thatounter consensus is the politics in turkey is not that bad. one of the unintended consequences of the coup d'état was that it brought the country together. you think that is an unattended consequence. he has the whole country behind him. >> it seems to have brought the country together, the opposition as well as the people in the street, and that is having an impact on the market.
the same time, the economy in turkey is not that bad. it is an ok story. they are actually quite responsible fiscally. not a surprise that we have rallied quite a bit. joe: you say the valuations may be stretched. what will be the driver of markets going forward? in turkey and everywhere, we are all hostage to the global story. within the microcosm of turkey what thees, it will be central bank does, how much it cut interest rates, do they do the balance just right?
the fiscal story is importing, and the impact of the coup on the economy, tourism matters. candida messick central-bank makeup for something like a slowdown in ms six -- can the central bank makeup for something like a slowdown in tourism? domestic central tank make up for something like a slowdown in tourism? it's perfectly reasonable. you mentioned the political conditions in turkey are not that bad. on the flipside, anxiety about the political conditions in south africa. election a few verys, a few weeks ago,
uncomfortable for the ruling anc. it could go either way. or doubleconciliatory down, and it looks like he has chosen the latter, and that to me is a dangerous path. the finance minister might be key to everything here. finance minister hasniste made a comment saying his arrest could be more damaging. it could destroy the economy. joe: could it be that bad? theramatic, but nonetheless anchor has always been the autonomy of the fiscal authorities. if you start playing with that, that becomes a serious problem.
the topwe have updated it. panel, the bottom panel is the relative strength index. the rsi gets to the 70 level, it is over or and it comes down. it has been a consistent red light for investors going back to 2012. >> technician, i'm not. having said that, it is clear to me the market has run out of steam. the rally in the emerging markets has run out of steam. importanting into events, jackson hole, boj, ecb, american election. feelarket is starting to that technically it is not as supportive as before.
has legsnk the rally here after consolidation? i think the context for emerging markets despite the bad technicals is still conducive for the rally from here. in oneo show that flow area of the market, i will look at etf's on the bloomberg. i looked at the emerging market etf's, covering everything from , fixed income etf's, and year to date flows of four point $5 billion into fixed income, $10 billion into equities. no-brainer at the beginning of this rally to get into etf's. on the sellanks side advising clients to do that. is that also a no-brainer to take some money off the table at this point?
>> i don't think so. we as the portfolio managers are still overweight and feel comfortable with that position knowing perfectly well that the technicals are no longer as supportive, but the fundamental underpinning for the story and the evaluation -- in a world in which all fixed income is offering you know rate, no thed, or negative yield combination of the fundamental story is attractive, the violation particularly attractive, i think we can afford some wobbling before the rally continues. scarlet: in the fifth inning, eighth inning. >> it is probably more advanced than that. joe: thank you very much. from a planning commissioner on the front line of the housing wars. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> let's get to first word news. central italy is sticking out from a deadly earthquake. at flat in small towns and left 120 people dead. rescue crews are trying to find survivors and victims trapped and collapsed buildings. a powerful earthquake also shook myanmar, leaving three people dead and damaging 100 agent buddhist pagodas. -- ancient buddhist pagodas. it had a magnitude of 6.8. donald trump urging african-americans and hispanics to give him a chance. in tampa, florida,
trump said that democratic policies have only lead to poverty, crime, and joblessness in cities like chicago and baltimore. >> the democratic party has run as i have said nearly every forr-city in this country 50-60, or in some cases over 100 years, over 100 years. produced only more poverty, only more crime, only more joblessness, and broken homes all over the place. at record levels. >> polls show that minority voters overwhelmingly favor hillary clinton. bernie sanders says he will campaign actively to send her to the white house. he will urge supporters of his former presidential campaign to help democrats take back a majority in the senate. he is seeking reelection as an independent
from vermont in 2018. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. scarlet: let's get a recap of today's market action. declined to speak of, but a lower day for stocks, the worst decline in three weeks for the s&p 500. snapshot of the market over the past couple of weeks. joe: we saw a selloff in treasuries, yields picking up, , seems likeold expectations of tighter fed policy bring everything down a little bit. scarlet: a couple names moving in after hours, hpq, the printer business, pc business, down by 4.9% after coming up with a
quarterly profit forecast that falls short of analyst estimates. rose 13% in after-hours trading. its revenue missed for the previous quarter, but did raise its forecast. joe: "what'd you miss?" of affordablek of housing in palo alto driving residents away. i know skied says the san francisco bay area community has the worst housing policy in the u.s. thank you for joining as. you recently resigned and leave palo alto because of your $6,200 a month shared rent. why is the city unwilling to address the issue? problem with housing is
that we have systematically added far more jobs than housing for decades. we have the largest imbalance in with three jobs for every housing unit in palo alto. imbalance and regional shortage in the area, housing prices spiraling out of control. scarlet: what i found fascinating is the palo alto mayor's comments. we are looking to increase their rate of housing growth, but decrease the rate of job growth. this does not mean we want no .ob growth we want me to job growth and metered housing growth. reasonable point, that even if you were to add more housing in palo alto that it would create a huge's stress on that transportation infrastructure and the problem would show up a different way? >> you need to do both, at
housing and invest in public transportation. matt: it is odd to hear a mayor suggested that he wants to limit job growth in the economy he runs. i have ever heard any other politicians say they want to hold job growth back. canhe other hand, i understand why he would not want to put stress on the infrastructure. is traffic very heavy? would it be possible to get around if you added more housing? i think it is possible, but it takes smart planning and a desire to make those plans. look at who is on our city council. they are either independently wealthy and don't need to work or retired. you have a mayor who bought a house for less than $500,000, but now it's worth more than $4 million. they don't need jobs anymore.
they are rich enough. joe: this is the point i wanted to ask you about. planning time on the commission, what is their motivation for the lack of housing? personal and trysts, that their real estate values have surge? or is there talk about preserving the state of the community and not changing much, does that hold water? what is your view about their real motivation here? >> i think the first one is as the housing line, shortage props up people's housing prices. you have people who bought houses for $100,000 and they're now worth more than $3 million or $4 million. they did not earn that money. they bought into that market and enacted the policies to keep those prices high. whether or not we could do something about it, definitely.
most of palo alto is one story or two-story structures. we have parking lots, strip malls. there are places to grow and go near existing public transit that would allow us to grow in a way that would have the least harmful impact on our community, but i think people are doing it because it is propping up housing prices, and number two, they want to keep living in the suburb. go ahead. for a community to collectively say we don't want to get any bigger, we don't want to increase our population, we don't want to live in a more dense area? >> i think it is fair for a community that is not a job center. i don't think it is fair for a community that has purposely invited lots of fortune 500 companies to establish headquarters in their city and then to say we will take the tax
revenue, but would not do anything to house your workers. joe: here is some pushback. a bloomberg contributor don't have acities shortage of housing, just in neighborhoods where young people want to live. constraint can development and the more developed parts of cities can facilitate development in less developed neighborhoods." joe: is it possible that palo alto's refusal to build more housing is a de facto subsidy to help other areas grow that need that kind of growth and population inflow? >> i would not see it as a subsidy. i would see it as a cost. we are a tech of in silicon valley.
hub in silicon valley. to locate next to a research university, investors. when people are pushed into areas that are not hubs in that way, it is more expensive for companies to set up shop, grow, find investors, find employees, so when you push out people and consequences push companies away from that ecosystem that makes them thrive, every one of those companies is that much harder to start. harder to start new companies and harder to add more jobs. do you have any optimism that anywhere in the bay area that things are going to improve or is your view that this fight will go on forever without any meaningful change? wethe only meaningful change can hope for is that the state and federal level. every city will continue to add
gamestop is capitalizing on that craze with more than 400 stores your mark as stops. marchwere higher -- year with sony, microsoft, and newendo ready to release consuls, look for a pickup in developers. in the meantime, gamestop is offsetting a decline in new --eo game sales by diverse diversifying. gamestop has managed to avoid avoid consecutive declines.
not everyone believes that new consuls, virtual-reality, and a connection to at&t could turn the tide. gamestop was the most shorted stock last year. it remains one of the most shorted stocks. we will watch how these trends play out after results on thursday. matt: "what'd you miss?" tampa, florida, donald trump slammed hillary clinton for the controversy surrounding her family's foundation. he accused her of covering up a pay for play scheme. >> we are going to end the government corruption. hillary clinton ran the state department like a failed leader in a third world country. she sold favors. she sold access. and wait until you see what is revealed, all of those people.
now it looks like 50% of the people who saw her made contributions to the clinton foundation. ,att: joining us with more margaret, donald trump will in the government corruption -- that is a weight off my chest -- how is the clinton campaign reacting? campaign after taking its time to get a statement together came out with a strong statement saying that the story donald trump is referring to, the one that alleges half of her meetings were with foundation donors, relies on utterly flawed data and cherry picks from a limited subset of information about her meetings. the clinton campaign has gone on to say that she met with close to 2000 folks connected with various foreign governments, and those numbers were not counted as part of the report.
others defending the clinton foundation saying the foundation has thousands of donors and only several dozen of them got meetings with her when she was secretary of state. but a lotushing back, of her problems with trusting credibility are baked in the cake, and what donald trump is hoping to do is take advantage of that and let voters get lost in the details. details,understand the but here's another reason not to trust her. ask i wanted to exactly about that. when you look at the details, is there anything that she did that looks like pay to play? there are thousands of e-mails that the state department is going over and will be released between now and november, but the recent batch .hows the appearance of access
if you are active with the clinton foundation, then there were top-level clinton aides talking to each other saying maybe this person would like to meet with her. but did that access translate that the oldver is washington stand by, to have an ear to get their foot in the door, not that either one of them is great. at this point, it is an important point. there is a difference between and actual favors, which would be the ethical problem. ethical problem with getting to meet the secretary of state, is there? >> the problem for hillary clinton is that every minute she and her campaign defend this art -- try 2-d side
whether to defend it, that's a .ost opportunity the heat is off of him as long as he keeps talking about this. let's talk about nigel farage. he will be visiting a rally in mississippi. he is the leader of the uk independence party that push for brexit. should we expect an endorsement? expectation is he will stop short of an endorsement. he told the local station in mississippi that you could not pay him to vote for hillary clinton, which is good because he should probably not be casting votes. himself is the one
making this point to the local stations, not the trump campaign , some confusion from the trunk campaign whether this was happening and they would appear together. we will see more in the hours to come. joe: thank you very much. scarlet: shoppers in hong kong were waiting for up to two hours in line for a personalized jar of new tele-. how does is help slumping sales in the city? this is bloomberg. ♪
have declined, so pop-up stores are trying to bring back of atraffic, and the lure bottle of nutella is attracting customers. you used to live in hong kong. panic and that feeling of missing out spreads really quickly in the harbor city of hong kong. pop-up stores have become an interesting way for retailers in hong kong to generate that fear of missing out and generate sales to match. nutella is a great example of that. other brands have started to do this because sales slumped 416 straight months.
we are familiar with pop-up that is not a concept in hong kong or parts of asia, so this is just becoming something new. that's because all the malls are stocked with luxury namebrand products. >> falling mainland tourist numbers have made it so that those stores have closed up branches, so you have a lot of vacancies at these malls. >> the malls have done better than the street, the stores on the hong kong street, but there is suffering all around. you hit the nail on the head. chinese tourists, as significant decline, down 11% in the first so thesehe year, mainlanders who like luxury brands and buy them have been missing from the economy.
chart've just made this that shows the issue, the white versus the hong kong dollar. there has been a big lunch -- big plunge. big ticket splurge , it might make more sense to go to europe than hong kong if you are going to spend a lot of money. brexit thate after the number of chinese clicking online surged because they were europenking i can go to now or the u.k. and buy goods for 20% cheaper. scarlet: when i first saw this new tele-story, i thought of
course it is in hong kong. nutella story, i thought it is and hang kong. you lived in hong kong. remember when bakeries would face a run on coupons because they thought the bakery was going to close? >> my favorite story was cards -- carts. i remember that people would lineup around blocks to get their hands on these portuguese tarts. thesewe hear more about fans taking off and gaining so
alex: i'm alex wagner. john: and i'm john heilemann. today, your legacy was challenged by a guy who knows a little bit about films. >> the scandal you are watching will be like a teapot dome scandal and maybe bigger. john: oh, really, you may not short worst out but when he does get teamed up to me tends to shout as opposed to os