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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  September 1, 2016 12:00pm-2:01pm EDT

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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i'm matt miller. we are covering stories from washington and london to beijing this hour. here's what we're watching. u.s. stocks falling with the dollar data showed not expected traction in american manufacturing, renewing concerns about the strength of the world's largest economy. if you are a traitor who's been fed up with u.s. stocks doing nothing for weeks, friday's payroll report may be the solution. does the fed need a blowout jobs report to move in september? republican presidential nominee donald trump doubles down on his hard-line immigration plans, promising robust protection of the u.s.-mexico border. trump: we will build a great
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wall along the southern border. and mexico will pay for the wall. the growing number of hispanic voters, can he win the white house with this position? we are nearing the halfway point of the trading day. bloombergs abigail doolittle has the latest. we have the u.s. averages in decline mode today, this after there was a surprise contraction to the august isn manufacturing number. dow, s&p and nasdaq all trading lower on the session today. nasdaq, it's the first three-day decline since the middle of june. we take a look at the s&p 500 on an intraday basis, the turn of the s&p 500 today, we do see that the index is trading right near the lows. not a lot of reprieve, the drop came after that contraction or shortly thereafter that ism report around 10:00.
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the s&p 50038 of not making a 1% move. there's interesting research from the spoke investment management talking about the ina that the source of lulls market activity tended to and in a decline or move down 1% or more. we will have to see whether or not that will prove true when this is broken. in the commodity complex, we are seeing mixed action. perhaps is on the idea that based on that ism manufacturing report that was disappointing showing a contraction, that the fed may perhaps delay the pace of a potential rate hike. ore is sharply lower, down four d's in a row. down nearly 9% over the last four days. when we look at the dollar, specifically the bloomberg dollar index, we see it is sharply lower ahead of that ism
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manufacturing report for august. after that report, started to take down again -- investors may think the fed may pause as far as the next rate hike. in the bloomberg with the warp function, yesterday, the likelihood of a rate hike on a july 21 meeting was at 36%. now it's at 32%. investors see less of a nonce of the fed raising at that eting.ber 21 me salesforce.com trading lower. bank of america perhaps on the delayed potential of a rate hike, and salesforce.com, they did guide to lower. matt: thanks very much. in on the's check bloomberg first word news. mark crumpton has more from our newsroom. a dress the trump
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american legion convention in cincinnati, ohio this morning. in november, wins americans will quote, united by our common culture, value, and principles. mr. trump: we want young americans to recite the pledge of allegiance. in addition to teaching respect for the flag. we also have to make sure we give our military the tools they and to defend that i deter violence and aggression from our foreign adversaries, of which there are many. mark: democratic nominee hillary clinton address that same convention yesterday. president obama's traveling to one of the most remote corners of the pacific ocean to amplify his call for global action on environmental protection. he will visit a remote coral reef located halfway between east and west. spoke at the president lake tahoe along the border of california and nevada.
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he said the government will spend money to prevent wildfires near the lake and will provide funding for geothermal research. in south carolina, a federal judge is holding a closed hearing on evidence in dylann roof's trial. roof is accused of killing nine black parishioners in june 2015. the judge heard an objection yesterday from media attorneys. since the start of the week, nearly 12,000 migrants have been rescued in the mediterranean. that is an unusually high number. border controls were tightened along the route connecting turkey to austria. so now italy is the main entry point for migrants heading to europe from africa and the middle east. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. matt: the s&p 500 finished --
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finessed -- finished august lower. how is september and the rest of the trading year expected to shake out? guest says to look to the s&p 500 index hit 2300 by 2017. that is deutsche bank's cleef -- .hief global strategist it is a 4% or 5% move from where we are trading today. why are you bullish? at the most basic level, what i would argue the u.s. economy is a veryhrough severe u.s. dollar and the way we think about it, also the u.s. oil price shock. growth comes out, rebounds. raises rates, in
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september or this month or in december. higher rates are very positive for growth, for equities, for cyclical versus defensive sector performance. matt: but also for dollar strength. bill gross was telling erik schatzker he wants the fed to raise twice. that would attract more investors to the u.s. dollar, wouldn't it? binky: if you think back over the last few years, the trade rate of dollar is back in august of 2011, when u.s. debt was tildeaded, from their january peak this year, the dollar is up 40%. i would argue it has already priced in a lot of rate divergence. the most recent moves we saw until yesterday when we got the pmi have to do with position squaring as rate hikes get more likely. >> what about the bond markets?
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thee talked about correlation between stocks and bonds recently. how do you see that shaping up by the end of the year? binky: the correlation between bonds and equities underwent a very basic, complete regime change, starting in 1996. if you look at on yield and the change in equities or equity the u.s. went through the enormous inflation cycle from the late 1960's all the way down to 1995. then inflation came all the way back down to 2%. the correlation is what people think intuitively that it should be, which is when bond yields go up, the discount rate on equities goes up and so equities should come down. been 1996, inflation has in a rage. the only driver of growth is growth and growth expectation.
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a very strong, very positive relationship between equities and bond yields. there is very good fundamental reason for it to remain so, up and on till inflation becomes the dominant force. 2% is not 1.6% to really in the grand scheme of things really a big deal. just so i can get your thinking straight on the rally, you think the drive is going to be growth. good news is good news, as opposed to what we have been seeing when more stimulus means equities go high. binky: more stimulus is bad for equity. in the u.s. because we haven't had stimulus for a while, the discussion becomes a little difficult but if you look at europe, you look at japan, more stimulus is clearly very bad for equities. if i look at the ecb, 5 of 6 las action since the
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middle of 2014 when the ecb moved rates to negative, five of the six easing actions have been associated with european equities underperforming by five percentage points on average and breaking inflation rates go lower. go downfinancial stocks on average by 15 percentage points. the one time they did go up was temporary. matt: what about fiscal stimulus? that talk has started to gain steam into the election. donald trump has been talking about how much he would borrow to build infrastructure, fix infrastructure. hillary clinton wants to invest in that too. is that good for the u.s. economy and do you think it will happen? binky: some public-private partnership so it is not necessarily just more fiscal spend, given the rise in u.s. gdp we have already seen, clearly would be positive.
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inould argue, sitting here 2016, it is still very early to start kind of factoring that into an outlook, even for 2017. >> are you far more positive on the u.s. than elsewhere in the world? in thewe are overweight u.s., we are overweight emerging markets, and underway to europe and japan. the main reason for being underweight europe and japan is the view that monetary -- monetary easing is negative for the equity market and both the seem to bek of japan bent on continuing to ease. until they take the hippocratic oath, which i don't see any signs of, and walk away from doing additional monetary easing, we remain underway. matt: i'm looking at etf go. i like to see what investors are doing as far as flows.
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it down to -- i can broaden out the entire globe, and you can see that inflows to etf's investing in emerging markets, whether it be equities or bonds, have been strong all year long. do you expect that to continue? if you look at a longer charge of em equities relative to the u.s., you would see a multiyear pyramid up, multiyear pyramid down. the moves we have seen so far on a relative basis is hardly visible. there is a long ways to go, and there's a mirror image of that relative performance chart which you would see if you looked at .m. equities e relative to the u.s. or developed market equities, so i would argue by late last year,
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all of the massive over allocation which was $700 billion to $900 billion had been completely unwound. >> another thing i like to look at as well as the relative strength index. that was going into overbought territory a few weeks ago. binky: the reason speed and positioning, there's no doubt. what i was talking about is medium-term and strategic view. matt: i made it quickly the mxef. ite.mxef -in wh i normalize them from march 9, 2009. sure enough, you're right. we've seen a doubling of u.s. stocks, and we haven't yet seen the doubling, or tripling of u.s. stocks. >> i think of the bottom part
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moving up. just to be clear. >> optimism is good. bank,chadha, deutsche chief global strategist, is sticking around. we are talking jobs next. l gross told us yesterday that 150,000 is the number to watch. >> this friday with the employment rate number, we saw the adp number, still 150 to 200. to me that sort of cements it, but i think the market would be less certain than that.
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>> you are watching "bloomberg markets." i'm nejra cehic. matt: tomorrow the latest jobs
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report. a good report could lead to rate increases this month. we are back with binky chadha. by bloomberg's executive editor of global economics. a great story that you did, the bloomberg news did about janet yellen's speech and what she might have been hinting about that she wants to see in the jobs report. >> our colleague wrote about this this morning and we discussed it briefly earlier this week. the sentence and share yellen's speech about how the rate -- chance for a rate increase is oxygen got all of the last week. she basically said, it just has to confirm our outlook. game ofs guessing payrolls tomorrow, it doesn't have to be a super awesome number.
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it doesn't have to be a blowout. it just needs to not be a disaster. where is that point? >> it depends what's happening to wages, the unemployment rate. there was a bit of a disappointment with the ism manufacturing number. that was a disappointment. the really depends on the mix tomorrow. consensus forecast is up 480. something like that would probably keep them on course from an increase this year. matt: can i just point out that we have a great function on the bloomberg, for those who want to play along at home. whis is the bloomberg league of champions. it's more of a fun one, and more educational. you can pick any number of data points. and then you can put in your guest, and see how you fare
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against the other people playing. more and more people have been playing on the bloomberg. what would your guess be? think the best guess for payrolls is already in with the adp number which says the bloomberg consensus of 180 is a very reasonable consensus. wasuld point out that that also the case the last two months, and payrolls beat adp massively in each of those two months. and that follows the very bad payrolls number in may, even though the adp number was not bad. tellinge they should be you exactly the same thing, and they do tell you exactly the same thing. when payrolls missed adp massively, in the next two months they've basically been catching up. the simple question for tomorrow is, have they already cau
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ght up, and if you accumulate the numbers over the last three months, it says that payroll still has an extra 70 k to catch up to adp. if you believe the adp number and consensus number that may or may not be factoring in this catch up factor, the 180 becomes 250. that's not my forecast. know, is logical from the last three months. there's a lot of other sources of noise. 180,ith the consensus in with the bias that he could be significantly higher. if you get anything close to that, it is going to shift the debate. after the numbers this week we get three more jobs
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reports before the fed's december decision. are there any risks at all that those numbers could come in lower than forecast and derail your forecast for the s&p 500 for this year? >> there is, but at the end of the day it's really important to think not just about the numbers, but what is driving the numbers. 50 payrolls has been going on for many years, and i prefer to think of all macro data because it tends to be much more volatile than people seem to realize as being in channels. you have to adjust for the work week, so total labor input, number of people times the work week, you will see that from the bottom, in 2010, because the labor market lags a little bit. the channel is very steady, and it points to 2.4% growth in
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labor that has been happening for the last seven years. the metric is really not that big. reason give me a good for thinking why -- we already had two really bad winters, a 40% dollar shock. over the last two months we have made our way almost back to that very same channel. matt: our chief u.s. economist earlier was talking to binky offset. they were talking about productivity. forhat the biggest concern the fed as well, the fact that they can't get productivity to rise? >> it's a concern. they probably also think there is little they can do about that. matt: i believe that was your conclusion as well. sayinghad paul krugman essentially that is a technology issue, there's very little the fed can do about that.
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if you go back to chair yellen's after thatpal, meeting she was sounding a lot like larry summers, talking about demographics, low productivity, how the neutral rate has probably come down. there's a lot of distance between where we are now and the way it is. bloomberg'saes, executive editor of global economics, and binky chadha, chief global strategist at deutsche bank. matt: binky, your piece on productivity is coming out a week from tuesday. maybe we can get you back in here. binky chadha, thanks so much. dan, nejra and i back in two. ♪
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for: another tough month volkswagen, still reeling from the fallout of its diesel in
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emissions scandal. the german automaker sales fell more than 9%. toyota also had a bumpy ride last month. u.s. sales fell 5%. analysts expected a drop of 4/10 of 1%. the big three automakers all missed sales estimates, as did nissan, ford, and gm sold fewer discounted models. buyers saw a rear decline in the month. -- rare decline in the month. up, donald trump seems to break down walls with mexico --, visiting the country's president but hours later calls for that country to pay for a border wall. this is bloomberg. ♪
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nejra: that's new york, looking great on this day.
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live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i'm nejra cehic. matt: i'm matt miller. this is "bloomberg markets." mark crumpton has more from our newsroom. mark: an unmanned rocket has blown up on the launch pad at cape canaveral. the rocket was owned by billionaire in elon musk's spacex. the explosion occurred during a test. the rocket was set to take an israeli communications satellite into orbit on saturday. in germany, chancellor angela sunday in local elections traded chancellor merkel's christian democratic union is running neck and neck with the party alternative for germany in mecklenburg, western pomerania, her home state.
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florida's gulf coast is bracing for a hit from tropical storm hermine. forecasters say it is likely to strengthen and make landfall as a hurricane. it would be the first hurricane 2005.ike the state since a new survey on health care attitudes finds almost half of americans are concerned of traveling to places in the u.s. where people have been infected with the zika virus. the family -- kaiser family foundation poll found 48% would be uncomfortable traveling to zika infection areas. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more i am markountries.
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crumpton. this is bloomberg. matt: donald trump affirmed his nativist immigration plan in a night,in arizona last promising to build a wall on the mexican border and ruling out legal status for undocumented immigrants. mr. trump: under my administration, anyone who illegally crosses the border will be detained until they are removed out of our country and back to the country from which they came. matt: that speech came hours after trump met with the mexican president, where they discussed a range of topics, including immigration, leaving many to wonder where the candidate truly stands on the issue. joining me is bloomberg politics steven yaccino. we know where he stands on the issue. the question is how he presents it and to whom, right? >> i think a lot of people were
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looking at donald trump yesterday and trying to see mass he stands on the deportation issue. a lot of what donald trump said yesterday is what he has said before, he's going to build a wall, he's going to target criminals, he's going to end visas for people that we can for theeir backgrounds last 10 days, the donald trump campaign has been the one kind of floating this idea that they might be softening on mass deportation. they created that. they were the ones who came out and said, you're going to learn more about it when donald trump speaks tomorrow. trump gets up. he's there in mexico. he's standing with the mexican president, and he has this stately sort of demeanor. the wallof mentions but doesn't really go after the mexican president, and people are thinking, maybe this is
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donald trump thinking, trying to project this more presidential image. maybe he won't embarrass us on the national stage. he leaves mexico, he goes straight to arizona, and the wall is the very first thing he mentions. the mass deportation crash and is still in flux. nejra: i think we have more sound from trump on the wall. mr. trump: we will build a great wall along the southern border. in mexico will pay for the wall. nejra: ok. [laughter] so there we go. enough said. matt: a lot of people might not realize, but i've gone down there to look at how the ins does their work. there is a wall on certain portions of the border, in the especially urban populated areas. but it is an incredibly large stretch of land to build a continuous wall. it would surely be an epic. >> is not a beautiful wall.
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as donald trump says, his wall s for include sensor tunnels and aerial sensors and things like that. he's going into more specifics about what his might look like. again, the mass deportation issue is the one people are interested in and what donald trump said yesterday is what republicans have been saying for a long time, which is, we defer. we will secure the border first and then figure out what to do with the estimated 11 million people here. is that a softening for donald trump? in some ways, yeah. he made it clear that was something he wanted to pursue, all illegal immigrants living in this country. yesterday he said that task force would be -- would target criminals only, and once the border is secure we will figure
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out what to do. nejra: what happened over the past 24 hours? does this change his hope to pass victory? what thel have to see speech did yesterday. more interesting to me than what trump said yesterday was the out aftertone he came his reserved appearance with the president of mexico. aggressive,, he was he was making clear that he was a tough guy and he was not backing down on amnesty. nejra: you are surprised donald trump was tough and aggressive? -- postedbecause build up, is he softening, is he trying to come around to this general election message that might appeal to more people, may be minority voters, and if not minority voters, maybe women who want to see a little bit of
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softer side of donald trump because they want to feel a little warmer comfortable about him leading the country. a lot of people were thinking maybe donald trump was trying to hisen up a little bit image. yesterday he made it clear he has no intention of doing that. victoryt does to his cap we will have to see. it suggests that he's doubling down on the support that he had from the primary, and the message that he had from the primary. pointnegra's -- nejra's is a good one. at some point we will stop being surprised by erratic behavior from donald trump. maybe we should have already reached that point. >> he has been trying to have it both ways. he looks a little bit more appealing to a broader audience, then he makes sure he doesn't lose his base. sidever really chooses a or he hasn't so far, as far as whether he's going to be this broader candidate or the
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firebrand donald trump we know. maybe he wakes up that morning and decides he feels like -- matt: or you get into phoenix, you have taken a nap, and you are starting to feel a little more fiery. nejra: does this tell us anything more about a specific campaign they are waging, or do you suggest it is more -- >> we knew this about donald earlier, he's very susceptible and sensitive to criticism. you saw after his appearance with the president of mexico, commentators and the clinton campaign come out and start challenging him and saying, did he choked, did he not pressure the president of mexico as much as he claimed he will? whether or not that played a part in why he came out and made sure people knew he wasn't know whatwn, we don't isn't donald trump's head and i don't know if i want to. matt: for the moment i forgot
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there was a clinton campaign. [laughter] maybe that's what they want. maybe that's what they are playing at. i don't know. they went pretty aggressive at donald trump, in their eyes they win both ways. if donald trump backs off, they call him a flip-flop her and say he choked. if he doubles down on his policies that he's been talking about, they say he's divisive and not the president you want great they are clearly playing both sides of it as well. matt: thank you very much. we will continue to cover this. we will make him, even if he doesn't want to anymore. nejra: staying with international relations, turning to the american view on brexit, bloomberg's david gura spoke exclusively to the treasury undersecretary for international affairs. how the u.s. would like to see the negotiations play out between the eu and u.k. >> i really think the brexit set
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highlight, as you know, values multilateral as some, and we were able to coordinate effectively in the financial space, and thinking about macro strategies and so forth, and as a result of that, the reaction of the global markets was more common than it would have been otherwise. in terms of the way forward, we see this as an issue that will need to be worked out over time. -- time by the europeans and the u.k. importance,of great and we made clear that an outcome that involves greater integration between the united kingdom and european union is in the best interest of europe, and the best interest of the united states, in the best interests of the global economy.
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we will continue to watch it and vigorously engage on that issue. how satisfied you are at this point with how china is managing its currency. this is an issue that the treasury has been engaged in and working with the chinese vigorously for a number of years, including over the last years the chinese have been president of the g20. my sense is we are at a place where china is moving in a gradual, orderly way towards a fixed exchange or market determined exchange rate regime. but, the reality that they face is that capital outflows have been greater than capital inflows. on balance over the past year, depreciation of the currency. but as those flows reverse, there are more inflows and outflows, we need to see two-sided flexibility.
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that's really the key. and we will continue to work vigorously with -- to move toward greater exchange rate flexibility. this is the first order objective for them and first order objective for us. there was progress on steel. aluminum was a hangup. any more movement in these intervening couple of months? >>. we have continued to make progress. we move forward, and further in subsequent g20 discussions. we are having ongoing negotiations about aluminum, or further steps that can be taken to address the excess capacity issue which we see as being an important global issue. and, is another issue on our
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list for honcho. and part of our agenda. it's of global importance. nejra: that was undersecretary of the treasury for international affairs, thank you. formerly of citi. tomorrow on bloomberg miss aion, radio, don't very rare and exclusive interview with the russian president vladimir putin. he is speaking with our very own editor in chief. friday to watch a that exclusive conversation. on monday, the coverage continues with a special hour-long report from that exclusive interview with the russian president vladimir putin. that's monday at 12:00 p.m. eastern, 5:00 p.m. london time. don't miss this. ♪
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nejra: you're watching bloomberg. i'm vonnie quinn. >> this is your global business report. here's what we're watching today. apple chief executive tim cook says the $14.5 billion tax buy the eu levied against his company is disappointing. he is confident apple will prevail in court. >> how has brexit impacted europe's discount airlines? we speak with the ceo of ryanair. >> the battle over the use of drones in the united states is the subject of today's quick take. as drones grow in popularity, the regulation is heating up in
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washington. cook says he'sm confident the company will win the battle over taxes with the european union. you spoke with an irish broadcaster about the eu's this vision that apple must pay ireland more than $40 billion in taxes. >> it's maddening, it's disappointing. it's clear that this comes from a political place. it has no basis in fact or in law. and, unfortunately it's one of those things we have to work through. cook says he has faced the right outcome will occur. british factories have bounced back from post-brexit slump. manufacturing in the u.k. reached a 10 month high in better than
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economists forecast. according to the market research firm, you orders rose with the pound's recent drop. the chief executive of european discount airline ryanair says the brexitpsed after vote. concern is that ticket prices will keep folding. last year ryanair said fares this summer are down 9%. for the first time in more than two years, gambling revenues risen in macau, casinos unexpectedly took and 1.1% more in august. new resorts attractive recreational gamblers and tourists. crackdown on corruption has scared off high rollers from the mainland. time for our bloomberg quick take, when we provide context and background on issues of interest. drones have patrolled the skies above pakistan -- pakistan, afghanistan, and yemen for years.
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now there's a debate in the u.s. about plans to let the unmanned aircraft take flight for commercial purposes. regulators grind away at rules. ofthe meantime, the use small drones has exploded, creating a danger to pilots, privacy, and security. in june the faa issued new regulations on commercial drone use that were far less restrictive than its earlier move, and said it would begin licensing commercial drone pilots. new regulations generally permit only lower-level flights that remain within sight of an operator or nearby assistant, and don't go over people. verizon and other companies have agreed to help the faa develop a traffic control system for drones. setting asided corridors of airspace for high-speed drone delivery. domestic drones can be traced back to the 1917 get her link aerial torpedo, which was meant
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-- fly in aa's straight line until the engine was cut. it is one thing to fly a drone in the remote skies of an empty war zone and quite another to fly a drone over the u.s.. here is the argument. supporters say the benefits of civilian drones will ensure their adoption. the use of a drone to target terrorists at the mexican u.s. border -- are highlyolved technical questions concerning the reliability of robotic devices and those who control to avoid midair collisions. read more about drones and all our quick takes. head to bloomberg.com for more stories. ♪
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,> it sounds like an oxymoron
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but would you book a hostel for your next luxury vacation? she says a growing number of travelers are deciding to forgo the typical hotel chain and book luxury hostels instead. just explain the concept of a high-end hostel. for a lot of people, the two don't really mary. >> -- marry. hotel, but five-star high and hostels have as much in common with high-end hotels. you would never imagine. it's incredible. we are really looking at height and design, often by big-name designers. then we are looking at really inviting public spaces that are cool enough to draw a local crowd. you see that high-end hotels these days are trying to do exactly that. is that difference these places have shared hotel rooms. matt: i'm looking at pictures and i am seeing one bed. likeure hostels have to be
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this. this is why i avoided hostels throughout my life because i don't want to be sleeping in the same room as strangers. mind, because nine out of 10 hostels have private rooms. the big trend hostels are seeing is even these rooms where you can buy that that rather than the room, a lot of families are checking them out so the kids don't have to share beds or share bets with their parents, and groups of traveling friends are doing that too. nejra: i have shared a room with strangers many times in hostels in europe. it's really normal, and anyone under 25 does it when they travel. is this something aimed much more at the u.s. traveler? where are these luxury hostels popping up? >> everywhere. every corner of the globe, every continent. there is one brand in particular. we just saw a couple of photos from there. it is targeting the u.s. market. matt: are there a lot of hostels in the u.s.? >> in new york there is legal
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regulations that frown upon hostels opening and make it difficult. airbnb, right? >> that is a good point, but it is legal for them to operate here. i spoke to several business travelers who decided to stay in hostels. there were two things i attribute those growing trends two. this happens to everyone. you find out you are going to a conference last minute and all the hotels are booked. you either stay at an airbnb or you consider doing something like this. aren't inravelers love with the idea of solo travel. matt: it would be kind of cool to have an automatic group of friends if you go to a new city. i don't know if it's like cleveland, that might not be cool. going to see if you guys
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can tell the difference between high and hotels. this one, hotel or hostile? matt: hostel. >> correct. that is the generator, that just opened in stockholm earlier this year. hotel or hostel? matt: hotel. nejra: hotel. >> no, that's a hostel. soul kitchen in st. petersburg. that goes for $100. hotel or hostel? nejra: hostel. >> no, that's a hotel. the ad very in new jersey, right on the beach. nejra: thank you so much. ♪
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nejra: its matt: 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. matt:welcome to bloomberg markets.
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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york city, good afternoon. nejra: we are covering stories from toronto and london to berlin this hour. matt: u.s. stocks are rebounding inm earlier losses begins material and technology offsetting big losses in financial and energy as the job report tomorrow looms. sterling is rising to the highest level against the dollar and the euro since early august as the uk's economy shows no signs of faltering more than two months after the brexit about. heads of germany's biggest banks are planning for a consolidation of the next decade and the germany banking regulator tells us what he thinks of those plans. we are halfway into the trading
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day so let's go over to the markets desk. abigail doolittle has the latest. i just want to pull up a chart first. should we talk about the u.k. manufacturing? nejra: let's do it. matt: we all have learned the term cable. i should explain to american viewers. we talk about cable on bloomberg thevision because dollar-pound rate used to be decided over a literal cable between new york and london. now you will hear that to him a lot. you see the dollar-pound rate and -- rose 1.2 percent and hit $1.33 .18. this inch day jump after the u.k. manufacturing pmi jumped by a record in august and
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we will talk about that later. abigail is waiting. indeed, we are looking at a mini roller coaster of the stocks in the u.s. ismnd 10:00 before the numbers, the averages were little changed in 10 mins later, that changed. the indexes declined and now we are little changed again. the nasdaq is slightly higher. it's being held by charter communications. for the month of september, over the last 35 years, september is the third worst performing month. it will be interesting to see how this september plays out. we will know within a few hours how today closes out. in the s&p 500 has been the lack of volatility. we are on day 38 of the s&p 500 not making a run percent mover more. we can see that the s&p 500 has gained by 1.75%.
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bespoke investment groups say these things tend to break to the downside. are to besolar city losers. it's reported that tesla is .based a liquidity squeeze on filings the company will have to pay bondholders $422 million in the third quarter and they will raise money for various purposes along with the proposed merger of solar city but with the stock down come as may suggest it's a pending merger and has not been approved by shareholders. some investors may think it and will not go through. we have weakness there for those two stocks. nejra: thank you. matt: let's get the first word news. british prime minister teresa may has sent out the first of her redlines pre-brexit
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negotiations. she says she wants to end the free movement of people coming to the u.k. from the european union. she suggests she is willing to leave the eu single market to compass that. chicago has just concluded its deadliest month and about two decades. 90 people were murdered there in august. chicago is the third-largest city in the united states. it has had more murders this year, 471, then new york and los angeles combined. a year ago.ore than singapore has its first case of a pregnant woman testing positive for the zika virus. there have been more than 100 cases of the virus reported so far there since the first locally transmitted infection was identified earlier this week. singapore has stepped up efforts to fight the mosquitoes the carry it the man who shot. president ronald reagan 35 years ago will leave a psychiatric hospital to live full-time in
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virginia on september 10. 61-year-old john hinckley was deemed no longer a danger to himself or others and beliefs and elizabeth's hospital in washington to live with his mother full-time. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by with an 2600 journalists and. matt:. now we will get back to a subject we have been discussing which is the u.k. economy. factory activity reached a 10 month high last month as the weaker pound boosted exports and people have been waiting for this. theence is mounting that u.k. economy has become resilient to the brexit vote, the chairman and founder of cumberland advisors is still cautious. >> the u.k. is headed for trouble. we see firm after firm looking elsewhere. there is concurrency
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adjustment. if you get currency adjustments, can that benefit rolls-royce among others? >> if you can have currency adjustment without secondary effects, yes. but how do you do that? a wonderful up chart showing the history from 1992. what happens within the next two years? a have the peso crisis and worldwide currency crisis and a banking shock. tom: when you look at what bankers are doing now on this are you focused on future financial instability? >> i think so and i think volatilities are rising in the gap between riskless and risk is the libor spread and that is
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restating the price of risk. are now two categories of things thanks to basel three. level oneiskless, assess where you get paid no matter what and you have a divide going on. 0 tom: let's bring in guy johnson. >> people may not want to live in frankfurt and may not want to live in warsaw. trying to persuade bankers to live in poland but simply to the people will not simply move. there is an embedded infrastructure story that i think take a long time to unwind. who is to say that a decent deal cannot be done? why does this have to be doing and gloom? >> that may happen but we don't know so uncertainty rises. i would agree with what you have said about the current situation but if you have the uk's and position, what is the new position going to look like?
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norway? switzerland? iceland? whatever it looks like, it will be different than where it was before the vote. deferrals of capital investment in the city in finance and we have so many open questions now from brexit. defense is fine. i think it's a different question. we don't have a clue as to how this will play out. as todon't have a clue the whole of europe and how that will play out? they are looking at the policy environment with weak pmi out of italy and france. the negative rates are not working which has been said. >> from where we are now, the rates path are blocked. and can syncero more into negative but i was skeptical about negative rates. i think they do more harm than
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good. he has had that doubt since he left of the brenda's bank and went to ubs and watched this unfold. i have spoken him about it and the concern about negative rates bundesbank tom: continues. tom:as we go into next year, do you believe the bankers of different nations will transmit negative rates more to the little people or will they stay in institutional vehicles? transmissionrginal to the little people. tom: i agree but where will the marginal and go? do you believe they will expand that to the german people? the german people will resist it and there will be political uproar if they try to do it. we saw political uproar in the impact every time there is a mini shock in the system, in an
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italian bank or whatever happens to be. people don't want to deal with negative rates. david code talk from cumberland advisors. pound to get back to our chat, we were talking earlier about how we have seen sterling jump intraday. you can see the intraday move, up 1% at the moment and it rose as much as 1.2% earlier. sterling has actually hit its highest level in four weeks not just against the dollar but against the euro as well. i want to take this moment to show the bloomberg pound index. year to date, you can see how is down and this tracks the pound against a basket of major currencies. it is worth pointing out -- looking -- ister
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better than looking at straight cable. call fore consensus year end is still $1.26. the pound will still be the worst performer, down 9.9%. it's the weaker pound that has been feeding into manufacturing. matt: ipaq it's smarter to look at the pound index in regards to manufacturing in the u.k. that areonly americans buying british goods. i have a manufacturing gauge here and i had it charted against cable until you pointed out the pound index. i have changed bad. in blue you see the pound index and in what you see the manufacturing pmi of the u.k. you see the big rebound and look at the end. the big jump back up, back to
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levels that were as high as they were or higher than before the brexit vote. it is aided by the big drop in the pound index. as their goods get cheaper, more people can buy them. then they are producing more stuff so it's interesting. i was there with you during the brexit vote. there were so many people that thought this was the end of the world. one european parliamentarian said this was the end of modern-day culture as a civilization -- as a civilization as we know it. it's not all doom and gloom. you do see a bit of a recovery here. nejra: one thing i need to point bloomberg intelligence which analyzes all this data, they have said there are reasons to be cautious about because the the pmi survey includes responses that indicate whether output is up or down but not by how much. we don't know whether they are being a little positive or extremely positive. becauser thing is bisa
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services is a big part of the u.k. economy. that can someways be a better indicator. we are tracking every indicator and waiting with bated breath to see whether what seems to be a shrugging off of brexit in the economy will carry through. matt: absolutely, i thought it was a great report. the interesting thing is that bloomberg intelligence does predict that the u.k. is going to avoid a recession. nejra: that's true. matt: they are also not all doom and gloom. there are so much on here. you can get deeper and deeper. very important programming note -- tomorrow on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio, don't miss
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a rare and exclusive interview with russian president vladimir putin speaking with our own editor and chief. you contend in all day on friday to watch pieces of that exclusive conversation. on monday, the coverage continues with an hour-long exclusivem the interview with russian president vladimir putin monday at 12 p.m. eastern, noon in new york, 5:00 p.m. london which is a little after tee times are the queen can put her china back and flip on bloomberg tv or radio to hear this interview with vladimir putin. do not miss. ♪
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the federal reserve
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president loretto mester speaking in kentucky this afternoon, a voting member of the fomc and she says lower rates are not an effective solution for long-term challenges. pastas been hawkish in the and this is consistent with that. reportf the jobs tomorrow, she said don't expect 200,000 jobs. that can't happen every month but not that it won't this month. she says 75,000-150,000 would be good enough to keep the jobless rate steady. i think those are fairly hawkish comments. got would frieda fed to ahead with a december rate hike even if we saw only 75,000 which would be a horrible disappointment from the 180 we are looking for. you can see that 34% probability
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is what the market is placing for september. we don't get to above 50% until december. you can look at live go as well if you want to follow that speech by loretto mester in kentucky. bonds -- ournadian canadian bonds a risky bet? the housing market is starting to cool. pamela ritchie joins us now from canada with more. why is the canadian government [indiscernible] interesting double-edged sword. about1/6 of every canadian dollar going to tax revenue in canada is related to the housing market. it can be traced back to that and we are talking about municipal tax, provincial and federal.
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about 17% of total revenue is related to the housing market and this is in the form of construction as well as actual sales and taxes. consumer spending on things like furniture and appliances as well. that type of exposure to the housing market from the revenue of coffers we have not seen since the 1990's. our bloomberg reporters are that it's a blessing in the sense that those revenues and that money has gone into municipal provincial coffers that of helped to pay deficits.nded the it's been a doubling of armed prices in toronto and vancouver over the last decade. nejra: interesting data there but how is the canadian government trying to cool things down? they already have. almost a year ago, last
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december, we saw coordinated action with the finance minister saying more money needs to go down for down payments and we saw the main regulator here making sure that banks were holding more capital on hand for certain types of mortgages. we also saw the canadian housing agency change the way they are securitizing loans. they do much of the insuring for loans. all of that would take time to filter into the market and it appears to be working. vancouver, we have seen a third straight month of sales coming down a bit with prices coming down and on august vancouver putting in a 15% tax on foreign buyers. if you look at the first two weeks of sales, that also has worked. risky do investors see this? bloombergck tells
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that it's something that investors should be working into their overall calculation. provincial bond spreads can certainly widen if we see a downturn in housing. they have an area of great attraction in a world of negative yields. nejra: thank you so much. we are going to continue with international coverage and talk with our favorite just on political relationships in europe as the fallout from brexit continues. this is bloomberg. ♪
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nejra: you are watching bloomberg markets. when it comes to emerging-market debt, don't just buy anything. we had insight this morning from pablo goldberg.
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he also says it's way more important what happens in emerging markets than what happens at the long end of the u.s. curve. no yield around the world that is significant where the fed willie you raise rates by 25 basis points whether it is in september or december but that is a material. way more important for emerging markets it's what this is what happens at the long end of the curve and that appears to be well anchored. where do we get into it? is it about china or mexico, where do you buy? >> some of the money they came to emerging markets has been happening strongly during the third quarter. it has been a little indiscriminate and has gone everywhere. you can look across countries and dispersions have been low. we think now is the time to start focusing on selections and where the places are you want to
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be and you want to see where the reforms are advancing quicker and where growth is about to turn the corner. not all emerging markets are equal in that sense. caroline: we can certainly see the great migration has been occurring not just in bonds but also inequities. the fx weight is relatively solid. to see anye we going movement and currencies? should you be exposed to emerging-market currencies? >> i think you have to on a practical basis. we are still facing the fed starting at tightening cycle and that can give support to the dollar. we are focusing now on income
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stability and positions you can move more easy. we are looking at these dispersions which are very low in spreads but not that low in terms of if fax. currencies are placed relative value. matt: that was pablo goldberg from blackrock earlier today. nejra: still ahead, what if banks had device that could warn them wouldn't it is about to make an emotional trade? some technology may be hitting wall street next. ♪
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live from bloomberg world thisuarters in new york,
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is bloomberg markets. let's start with the headlines. mark crumpton has more from our newsroom. mark: republican presidential nominee donald trump addressed the american legion convention in cincinnati, ohio today. he said if he wins in november, americans will unite by our common culture, value, and principles. >> we want young americans to recite the pledge of allegiance. teaching, respect for the flag. we also have to make sure we give our military the tools they need to defend that flag and determine violence and aggression from our foreign adversaries of which there are many. mark: hillary clinton addressed the convention yesterday. president obama's traveling to one of the most remote corners of the pacific ocean to amplify his call for global action on environmental protection. the president will visit midway
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atoll, on remote coral reef. the president spoke at lake tahoe yesterday. he said the government will spend money to prevent wildfires mid a and provide funding for geothermal research. in south carolina, federal judges holding a closed hearing evidence in the dylann roof child. -- trial. objectionseard yesterday from media attorneys opposed to the closing of the hearing but ruled an open hearing could compromise his ability to receive a fair trial. hard-line on the hong kong democracy will be put to the test on sunday. voters will choose members of the city's legislative council two years after students blocked the streets to protest election restrictions. faceemocracy supporters steep odds to win a seat and the
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chinese government has blocked six candidates from running saying they don't support the hong kong basic law. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. matt: thanks very much. here for wall street is the emotions of its employees. banks are exploring the use of data gleaned from body sensors come the e-mail, and phone calls identify top traders and limit losses. they are doing it with the help of andrew low. he is studying how traders responded volatility and he joins us now from boston. thank you so much for joining us. let's talk about what kind of totions are important monitor. i assume traders must get excited when they make a purchase they think is good or sl they think is good and they get sad when assets move in the opposite direction. it's fear and greed,
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an old idea but now we can measure that using different kinds of instruments. what can you do with those measurements? don't you want them to be fearful and greedy? right amount.he we are trying to come up with the ideal traitor profile from a physiological perspective. nejra: how exactly are you measuring this? tradehave these traders in a simulated trading game and while they are trading, we put various sensors on their hands and face and various other body parts to measure their physiology. things like a galvanic skin conductance and the amount of sweat in their palms and heart rates and body temperature and breeding and so on. nejra: i assume you have done this at the request of financial institutions. one of the big talking point in the industry is the onset of artificial intelligence.
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why invest in humans rather than just using robots? >> artificial intelligence and great but the fact that we are nowhere near where we can automate all kinds of trading, simple trading can be automated but when you talk about dealing inh very delicate situations sketchy markets, you to have human oversight. that's one reason why trading will always have some degree of human involvement. what are the ethical issues? story,u hear about this you might say i hope they don't do that to me because everybody has emotions and fear and greed that probably should other hand a little too much. >> no doubt that privacy is a huge issue. at the same time, the traders themselves want to know if there's anything they can do to improve their game. when you think about biofeedback, that's a message we
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can all use to improve our state of mind and traders are no different. when the trading companies make use of that information to sort traitors in two different groups, now you're getting into a different ballgame. nejra: talk to me about the optimum level of emotion you should have. it's not great but also to be devoid of feeling. >> exactly, there is a goldilocks zone where it's the right amount of emotion. we found that traders are due best are the ones that have a certain degree of emotional response when markets are volatile and they need to make a decision but outside of those particular zones, they are and controls are managing your of emotions like a top athlete can is pretty key to making good trading decisions. nejra: do people get better at this with experience or is it in eight? >> some have innate skills but everybody can improve especially if you are measuring these things and seeing whether
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certain times of emotional states lead to good or bad traits. matt: i was reading the story about a famous rock climber who showed no fear. he had almost no activity on the part of his brain that should produce a fear reaction. beuess some people will wired to be better traders. is that what you find? see ahout a doubt, we whole spectrum of different psychological and physiological traits. study is tof our isolate those that are the most and least productive. we find there are telltale signs of traders that have natural abilities but those abilities can be amplified and trained in certain ways. but sunday, i could theoretically interview for a trading position and they can hook up sub centers -- hook up some center -- hook up some
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sensors and say you are not my guy. >> that could happen sooner than later. nejra: how will it work in the real world of finance? all sorts of sensors these days with wearable devices. one of the applications we are working on is taking these comingial products and up with programs that will actually download their data and allow individuals to measure their own physiological state while they are engaging in these activities. we are actually not that far away from being able to make use of this and create an app that will allow you to do this at home. matt: is this a field of study -- i assume it still nascent but it is it getting bigger? would only a few professors show up at a conference? yet buts no conference the area of psychophysiology is very deep and it's been going on
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in the psychology literature for decades. it's only now we are taking these ideas and applying them to finance. m.i.t.andrew lo, professor and director of this fory at the laborious tory -- at the laboratory for financial engineering. tomorrow on bloomberg a rare andand radio, exclusive interview with russian president vladimir putin. he will speak with our own editor and chief. wouldessing professor lo like to hook him up. tune in on friday for parts of can conversation or you tune into bloomberg radio. on monday, the coverage continues with an hour-long report from that exclusive interview with russian president vladimir putin.
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nejra: i think we should get hooked up. matt: i could get in more trouble than you. nejra: this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg markets. to the nasdaq for a quick check on some movers. nasdaq, weng at the have good most of our losses manufacturing index came in worse than expected. that came in about 10:00 a.m. but we are now back up. let's talk about the biggest winner right now and that is
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charter communications. 4.9% right now. it is the biggest and best performer in terms of a percentage rise. the reason is because charter communications will be replacing emc on the s&p 500 and that happens as dell is getting a closer -- -- dell is getting closer to acquiring emc. on the flipside, the worst thing is happening with tesla. it is down by about 4.5%. this is related to its acquisition of solar city and its rate of cash burn. a barclays analysts said the
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solar city cash burn is severe and speaks to the company's credibility as. of august 9, they burned through 70% of their cash pile. this is ever since the second quarter of last year. it's negative news coming out for tesla and the solar city acquisition. solar city could get acquired for $1.4 billion. solar city is falling to its lowest in three months with a debt of about three $.3 billion. some analysts say if the acquisition falls apart, solar city itself might not survive. it's not good news for elon musk especially after what happened with the spacex explosion in cape canaveral. matt: thank you. elon musk, another one of his in the newspacex is because its falcon nine rocket exploded in florida marking the second loss of a spacecraft in little more than a year.
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the satellite was destroyed in the blast. beenzuckerberg had counting on that satellite to help extend internet access across parts of sub-saharan africa. elon musk tweeted about the incident and wrote -- vehiclefalcon originated around upper stage oxygen tank, cause still unknown, more soon. nejra: it's time for the bloomberg business flash. british airways is planning to resume direct flights to iran as some sanctions are lifted. airline first erect flight is scheduled to leave heathrow airport tonight with arrival friday morning. service was suspended in october, 2012. matt: another tough month for volkswagen still reeling from its a emissions scandal. it's august sales fell more than 9%.
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toyota had a bumpy ride last month as u.s. sales fell 5% and analysts expected a drop for volkswagen but only 4/10 of 1%. the big three automakers missed sales estimates as did nissan. ford and gm sold less discounted models. known forpbell's soup canned foods is struggling to go fresh. shares doubled as much as 6% after they posted a disappointing -- shares tumbled as much as 6% after they posted a disappointing quarter. that's your business flash update. matt: the heads of deutsche bank and commerzbank yesterday laid germanir plans for the banking sector over the next 10 years and it's a more consolidated picture. what does the german banking regulator think?
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we spoke to him this morning. we are still by any measure, one of the most fragmented banking systems in the world. europe are banks in based in germany. it's a very active process of consolidation as we speak. it's been that way for a number of years and anything between 30-40 banks go out of business by means of mergers. it is happening and it's a fact of life. we have to manage it. you talked about the fact that they can accelerate. what can you do to accelerate the process? some say it needs to happen more quickly. >> we believe it is not a prime
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target of an authority to accelerate consolidation. we don't to structured policies. that has to be managed by the industry itself and the needs to be possibly countered by a political frowned work -- framework. we should not influence in a direct sense consolidation. we manage risk and requirements but we don't require consolidation is a primary goal. that structured policy should be -- should not be done by the authority. >> with the banking sector in germany be more or less risky? >> it depends on who is doing what. betterdation is a consolidation then merging. consolidation can happen on a
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variety of accounts particularly business activities that can be done in the shape of coordinated outsourcing strategies. it's not just peripheral. if that happens in a major scale, it depends on how the merger is done and the post-merger is being well-managed. we have seen mergers in the past in a variety of countries where the result off a, absolutely disastrous. there have been other mergers which were quite beneficial. it's not one-size-fits-all and we do not think any particular merger cures all your problems. there are a whole host of things to do. zooming in on one particular tool like merging will not do it. that was from this morning. stay in germany
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-- is it over for angela merkel? the anti-immigration party is running neck and mac with her party ahead of sunday's election. we go to berlin next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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nejra: it could be a sign of things to come for angela merkel as there are key local elections will tester grip on power. the anti-immigration alternative is running group neck and neck with her democratic union. it's in the very state where the chancellor had her electoral district. let's bring in joe wiesenthal and ninaschick. wins big in
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mecklenburg sunday, when it will mean for angela merkel? think she is down but she is certainly not out. be the might second-largest party but it's not only mecklenburg that's losing but the second-biggest party is losing. -- her refugeety stance has been tempered. what the german government is doing, they have been trying to tighten up on who can claim here and claim asylum and how long they can stay. even though the policy is still the same since last year, she has realized she may have made a mistake and is already rolled back quite heavily. joe: tell about us -- tell us about the regions that are holding the vote. >> this is northeast germany and its angela merkel's home state of use used to be one of the
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poorest states. the unemployment was about 2% until a few years ago but with the center right and left coalition, they have done well for themselves. it's a fairly unpopulated state that used to be one of the poorest. to see thatting there has been the backlash against refugees in mecklenburg. this is a state where there are not that many refugees. if you look at the demographic, it goes in line with those who vote for the afd, young male voters under the age of 30, usually on a lower income and these are the type of voters itt are going to asd and looks as though they will be about 20% and likely be doing better than her party and home state. matt: what is the fairest estimate of the effect of this recent influx of immigration on germany? is would think there absolutely nothing wrong with
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but iflux of immigrants you read a right-leaning publication, you would think there is a lot of crime and sexual assault being committed by the people who have come to germany. what is really happening there? it has kicked off a massive debate but if you look at the general seen in germany broadly, most people still think it's right that angela merkel offered to help refugees. they felt the government perhaps lost control. the country is still very much in that stage where it is debating how to integrate these people into society and what does it mean for a society in the long run. we have also seen a backlash and and thewhere theafd further right party has done better in the last year. aft was diminished as a political force until year ago. 3 of voters in mecklenburg say
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that immigration is the most important issue for them. this is just the beginning of a very long debate and angela is still trying to manage that and it looks likely she will get a fourth term as chancellor next year. big hit inhe gets a this state, could that affect her running for a fourth term? >> certainly not. if you look at the context of germany and imagine any other european leader had done what she did last year, they would have been finished within weeks. she is still in power and still polling at 50% approval rate. to the compare that president of france, she is very much the leader in the party may have lost, what this means is that the coalition building will simply change.
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angela merkel has no contender on the center right could stand against her. the central also has no strong leader. afd bringing in voters who are concerned about things beyond immigration? immigration is undoubtedly one of the main drivers but it's also a protest vote. most of voters say they feel democracy is not working for them. it's that malays in europe across many european countries. matt: thanks so much. wiesenthal we will see later. nejra: coming up, we will talk japan. ♪
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>> is 2:00 in new york, 11:00 in london. vonnie: welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪
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vonnie: we are live at bloomberg world headquarters in new york over the next hour. covering stories out of san francisco, washington and turkey. david: stocks are treading water, not making big movements ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. vonnie: and after visiting mexico, donald trump continues to campaign on immigration reform. his rhetoric is forcing hillary clinton to change your strategy. -- her strategy. david: and they talk about the 2016 campaign and the recent u.s. op-ed on the tax returns. vonnie: we are two hours from the close of trading. the first session in september, see where things stand with the majors. not a lot of movement, but we are improving as we approach closing bell time. the dow down 16 points

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