trade trouble. economic leaders warn the g-20 that the rise of protectionism is threatening the world economy. initiatives to soak inflation. says britain has rejected the free movement of labor, but the european commission vice president tells bloomberg.uk cannot pick and choose -- tell the bloomberg that the u.k. cannot pick and choose brexit conditions.
a very warm welcome to "countdown." -- manus: you have mark carney in front of parliament and the ecb. jobs report, markets in asia giving us a first chance to grasp what it means. if you look at the ni ch pacific, and the hunt saying -- the hang seng. the volatility in work is tremendous. we dropped to a low of 20%. probability of a written -- of a rate hike coming from the fed. this is the relative strength index. believe it is overbought.
oversold. here we are on the hang seng. property stocks at a one-year high because they are pegged to the dollar. anna: let's bring up the risk radar and show you what the dollar has been doing. just like the work function was volatile, so was the dollar. it jumped up again. 2/10 of 1% again, by on the dollar index. estimates or probability of a rate hike didn't change all that much. we had a slightly reduced probability of a rate hike in september initially. the isam manufacturing index was in the same position in 2015, in contraction.
the whole of the fourth quarter was below 50 and the fed went right on ahead and they hiked. the whole argument to pimco, goldman sachs, it all develops. nymex, very topical as we saw the saudi's and russians meeting to talk about working together on oil market stability. let's get first word news this morning with christy harvey. reporter: the bank of japan governor has refused to rule out new initiatives to stoke inflation. he says there is further room monetary easing. a comprehensive review of policies and their effectiveness. kuroda emphasized that the review won't result in any corrections in policy implications. angela merkel's party has been beaten by the populist alternative for germany in the first time for a state election.
it highlights the backlash of her open border policy. merkel's christian democrats took 19% of the vote while the opponent had 22%. the european vice president warning britain that it cannot pick and choose the conditions for brexit. commission has been very clear that movements within the eu internal market are a package, and they cannot be cherry picking. christine: meanwhile, british prime minister theresa may says the public has rejected the idea of the free movement of labor from europe to the u.k.. may: what leaving the european union does allow us to do is saying that we don't want
free movement to continue in the way that it has happened in the past. they do want to control the free movement of people coming in from the european union. but people also want to see job opportunities, economic opportunities, and further trade in goods and services. samsung's recall of millions of smartphones is not going to come cheap. the south korean company may spend as much as $1 billion after deciding to replace all of note7 phones.n samsung would only say that the amount was heartbreaking. turkey said it will provide evidence to the u.s. that july's failed coup attempt was planned an.the cleric gul saidone said -- erdogan
officials would travel to the u.s. to make arguments for extradition. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at . manus: thank you very much. let's get into those markets. data in place standing by -- david ingles standing by. we heard some remarks from corona. -- kuroda. highest4 day, rsi, level since the insane rally in the spring of 2015. you have a lot of these risk assets on the way up. most commodities are also getting bid up. for equities, we are very close to one year highs. you look at financials and then you look at the resources.
as far as the breakdown, we are looking at 70%, 72% maybe of stocks on the way up. 20% down, 10% unchanged. volumes are decent, not the best. have a look at how currencies are trading at the moment. a very weak u.s. dollar story. dovish, although he basically said as well that monetizing debt and financing deficits is off the table. 9/10 of 1%.own -- down 4/10 of 1%. japan, youout in look at the yields on the 10 year come all the way up until the 40 year, we are basically all the way back to the level of last month. -- of last march.
the largeston losing streak in 30 years. the 10 year close to turning positive for the first time since february. anna: the leaders of china and japan refused to meet today on the sidelines of the g-20 summit. on theset to meet today sidelines of the g-20 summit. they will sit down to try to decrease tensions over territories in the east china sea. sherry has been there for the whole weekend covering this event. this is the first time we will see she's in pain and -- c xi jinping and shinzo abe. a lot of suggested interpretation. we are hearing that we are expecting a very tense
meeting right now. of course, president xi and were notister abe expected to have a formal sit down, but now we're hearing that we might see that this evening. more measuresken in the east china sea, taking more vessels to the uninhabited islands controlled by japan. complicatesrther relations when both countries faced economic challenges. course, those very awkward moments between president xi and president obama as well over the weekend. tensions are running high. president obama not greeted when he deplane air force one. of course, that has been catching a lot of eyes here in china. we also have bilateral meetings
the rest of the day today. g-20 communique obtained by bloomberg saying that the leaders would mention financial market volatility, the importance of fiscal strategies, not to mention the global steel glut. anna: we're just seeing on the bloomberg now the news that obama and clinton, their meeting is beginning on the -- obama and putin, their meetings are beginning. we are also hearing warnings from the economic financial community about the populist backlash against trade that many in economic community just is threatening the global recovery. some politicians doing a little differently at the g-20. correct.: that is policymakers from the imf to the oecd are all cautioning about rising protectionism around the
-- whatd what that mean that might mean for global economic growth. i spoke with the oecd secretary-general who told me that trade was growing at or below the rate of global economic growth and that it should be growing at twice that rates. >> trade is no longer a locomotive of growth. trade is actually lagging like investment. no surprise why the world economy is only growing at 3%. growthhe rate of precrisis. shery ahn: the challenge now is for the leaders to pay heed to the populist sentiments but also spur their economies. manus: thank you very much, great reporting this past couple zhou.ys from hang
let's bring in our guest for the next half an hour. this secular stagnation personified? >> the g-20 remains an important for for discussion and debate about international challenges and growth policies. this g-20 summit has not been controversye surrounding -- what we haven't seen so far is quite the opposite of political polarization. this has been full of controversy so far. we have seen japan had a go at the u.k. over brexit. europe attacking china openly. china snubbing the u.s. the chips are falling in places we haven't expected.
-- the rise ofns nationalism standing in the way of growth. you are saying it is actually a potential risk to global stability. how do you see negative rates making its way into the more popular psyche? the followingena: the great crisis, with damage to incomes of both investment and working communities through the fault of real incomes and real interest rates. real wages and real interest rates resulted in a paradox of recycling the global savings from surplus nations plus the monetary created by central fed, thee qe at the ecb, the bank of japan. all of this has resulted in the of monetary stability which
stands in contrast to the lack of credit demand in the real economies. in the markets, we had this expectation of weaker demand for longer and parallel stronger monetary accommodations for longer, which is flattening the curve. we have the depressed volatility and we have depressed liquidity risk premiums, which is pushing up equity markets and bond markets, ironically, at the same time, into bull market territory. one of the easiest trades in the market has been to buy the 10 year, 30 year u.s. treasury and say, look, the ongoing appreciation. the result, however, is that global markets stands in sharp contrast to the lack in fundamental convictions behind the equity rally. manus: it might be insecure even
for a great dislike me, but -- even for a grinch like me, a hard one to swallow. saidu go by what kuroda this morning, he rejects any reduction in the scale of monetary policy. there are two stories. one of them is that monetary policy is not doing nearly enough because of this chronic deficit -- manus: why is he saying let's go for more negative rates? lena: monetary policy has reached the limits and from huron, it is really what the what fiscal policy and structural industry policy can achieve. anna: is that have a negative interest rate story should be impacting what is happening in hangzhou? and -- think that men
garde isame la absolutely right. the chinese growth figures, the second quarter gdp, the fact that china is sitting on the structural imbalance in the global economy. it doesn't change the fact that china has enough overcapacity. expensive yen as a result of chinese currency. it doesn't change the fact that, if china were to leave its capital accounts and touristy regime tomorrow, it would collapse -- currency regime tomorrow, it create a global financial crisis. anna: you are not expecting that anytime soon? lena: i don't think they will liberalize but i don't think it is a sign of health for the global economy. manus: lena gives it to you however you want on monday morning. it is labor day in the
united states and canada today, so markets are closed. betterw, german finance -- finance minister wolfgang schaeuble set to deliver the budget. manus: mark carney said to testify before the parliament. friday, finance ministers meeting. they gathered in bratislava. brexit and italian banks will the top of the agenda. up, the u.s. jobs data puts a lid on rate hike expectations. that discussion is next. time, at 6:30 a.m. u.k. will there be qe3 for the ecb? the results on the latest bloomberg survey on what you can expect at this week's policy meeting. theresa may reiterates her stance on the freedom of movement. ♪
manus: it is bobby, that it is foggy, wet, could even be witty. we think that is hong kong. hang seng property stocks. but in the business flash with christine harvey. is close toarclays naming jpmorgan's tim crosby to head of the corporate division and oversee the investment bank. the move would fill the final vacancy of the ceo jeff bailey's top management team. move came after lenders deemed the company's restructuring plans
insufficient. shares in south korea's biggest container line blocked by the 30% limit at the opening before recovering much of that loss. some think that is reaching a level that could trigger a downgrade. when hundred $15 billion at the end of march, five times adjusted earnings. any sustained rise above 5.5 could mean a downgrade. the purchase of holdings looks set to add to its debt load. much.thank you very weaker than expected u.s. jobs data is keeping a lid on speculation that the federal reserve will raise interest rates this month. of 180,000estimate in august. the market is now pricing a 32% chance of a fed hike. anna: we saw a great deal of volatility in the work function,
in the dollar, and in the news hitting the bloomberg about this 151,000. take us into your thought process around september and december. once the dust settles, things don't look all that changed from say, friday morning. lena: i don't know where you may be connection between the foggy asian market and foggy u.s. markets. i'm not buying the argument. that week so much as below the trend, 200,000 year to date average. the previous two months, 250,000 plus, extraordinary job creation. even at this late stage, mature stage of the u.s. recovery, and even with the growth week, generating this level of job creation. that continues to bear down on unemployment and underemployment.
it has put a firm floor on wage inflation with a gentle drift up. until the economy reaches full employment, these wage gains will become out of the fence control. i think it could be dangerous. manus: you say the fed is behind the curve right now? -- absolutely. i think the credit for the taylor rule. -- i take no credit. tayl ,go. -- tayl . it says what? anna: 2.3%, where interest rates in the u.s. should be. 0.5 inre in the blue -- the white.
have through the taylor rule function is evidence that it is diminishing and the rate is somewhere below what we considered neutral. in economic textbooks. it tells there is room for the , the rates to rise gently higher without monetary policy becoming restrictive. while they should be conscious of what the growth in inflation is telling us, the fed is also very sensitive to financial conditions. i think this strategy that we have had this year, it is backseat driving of market expectations. the data dependency has resulted in the risks. what the taylor rule is basically telling us is that it
is ranked much higher. manus: canada market really cope with that? lena: i think so. last time the u.s. labor market was the strong, the fed funds rate was several percentage rates higher. anna: inflation was higher. lena: we have moved into a lower inflation global environment. but as far as the u.s. is concerned, the deflationary that current policy response to his long gone. this disconnect between financial conditions and real economy strengthening is going to cause a nasty shock to financial conditions. we have less than 30 seconds. young car -- yield curve in the u.s.. lena: should the deeper. i think they will go in december. anna: thank you very much.
they said this pact would push and against globalization this is close. not quite back. >> if you think of the transpacific partnership, the u.s. and european trade deal still has a huge number of tim may well be appointed and barclays's close and aing this final piece lot of people from j.p. morgan's are coming and this can exact a
the chiefprice and from jpm.officer more on this oil story. we are joined now with the charts. >> good morning. we are getting a better sense of bet is happening and it will coming over the next two days. let me get you up to speed. let me carve it out for you a little bit. forward andking they are saying they would like andaintain the dialogue
importancecore the with the oil producers and this is the reality check chart and what you are looking at here is oil production and you can see with aecent months warning from the russian irandent and he excludes from the conversation and this about keyuestion toments and i spoke earlier the ceo of templeton investments and they said there was an
quantitative easing program is probably not one step. territory,negative there will be the cost of financial cohesion. >> thank you. stay with us on the program. >> a few comments are coming through from sarkozy. applications should not be handled in france. she is -- he is referring to the camp of migrants. he says that they should handle the applications and the this is an intense issue. could be on the
french side and not the u.k. side. >> note doubt that this will be political we charged. coming up, redlines and reiterating with the u.k.. >> a bit is all smiles. meeting with a chinese counterpart in the east china sea. >> plus, the federal reserve info this and putting a lid on rate hike expectations. his bloomberg.
here in london. >> thank you, anna. the corporate and international divisions, including overseeing the international investment bank. the final vacancy was filled with the top management team. recalled phones and it is not going to be cheap. as $1ay spend as much billion. this is according to estimates compiled by bloomberg. samsung would only say that the amount of money was heartbreaking. filing for court receivership's week, the move came after they deemed the restructuring plans
as insufficient. they recovered much of the loss. the bank debt is reaching a level that could trigger a downgrade. any sustained rides could mean a downward revision. getting set to add to the debt load. that is your bloomberg business flash. >> the merkel party has been defeated by the alternative for germany for the first time in the state of election. the highlights have shown the backlash. the christian democrats got 19% of the vote. and theretruggling
was a second confidence vote and the deal allowed the government to be formed. >> the british public has rejected the idea of free .ovement of labor, speaking the british ruler very clear about this movement to continue .nd they want to see controls they want to see the economic it isunities and important. we do not yet know if december
will be only get this decision. what do you see in the picture right now? vote was a disappointing and the election could mark the end of the career. negotiations with the coalition government continuing to upset the political order and the results with vote of no-confidence the open borders policy and this fromboth's -- votes away every party. the devastation of this global collapse ofreated a andtive yields in germany
it is -- >> this is not just germany, but is as europe and there rise of the fractional and we have to look to see how the social balance is upset and there will be a backlash against globalization. >> when you see this rise in the german election over the weekend and sarkozy commenting on seeking asylum, no doubt that this asylum issue will almost be a driver off of the shape of brexit and there could be further movements to the right with it accelerating next year.
the that improve restriction movement? we do not something know yet and there is no government policy being formulated. after, it will be more nationalist and what concerns me is that this is no longer alitical noise and there is rise of protest across the we are seeing the undoing of the middle class consensus and eve can think about europe being a u.s. partner with liberalization that
and this is now coming to an end and it is a real concern. madee link that was being in europe, do you see a crack in european leadership with the elections coming? moment, a lot of european that, if youaying want access to this market, you need freedom of movement. our european leaders united? >> they will all face a the most liberal
parts of the european leadership and aote constraint of facing aety national paralysis with liberalizing classes and they will speak to the political balance at home. >> you are going for the third and the bond market has been repressed and volatility has been immune from risk. market bond-- yields and they are not pricing the risk. >> as we have seen from the brakes it vote, it seems that
none of this looks like a systemic challenge during the height of the eurozone debt crisis and this is a courtesy of policies of financial repression growthsk translating in activitynancial indicators, including markets getting nervous with less risk -- less reward. >> as we have seen with the pricing of the brexit risk so far. >> thank you for spending the last hour with us. we are talking about all things g-20 and federal reserve related. prudentxt, obama and
>> trade trouble full's top warning of a rising tide of her text and is him threatening growth. out newg to rule initiatives and the bank of japan conducts a comprehensive review of policy effectiveness. movement offree labor. the vice president says that the u.k. cannot pick and choose the grexit conditions.
welcome to countdown. >> and anna edwards. lesse going to see attention on financial markets in that part of the world. with that in mind, what does the open have store for us? seng looked at the hang and you had that market racing market crashed the andability of a rate hike andmarket is still stuck she said that the federal
andrve is behind the curve we will talk about the day. said, this was all over the shop with the expectations about rates and hikes. morning andown this it came in below the estimates. korean won, just underlining the risk assets, that is what you are saying and we have the saudi's and the russians meeting.
justifying in be parliament and there is still scope to do more. will they extend? they will have breaking news coming through. >> telefonica says they are ready to list this year and they could hold pre-ipo, if they want to be part of the plans to pay off the debt and the have been saying they have been working and that they could do this by thatnd of the year, saying they are not sure if there will be a trade deal. commentsle of press worth 10 billion
by the end of the year. could have this and it could be 10 billion by the end of the year. >> thank you. the bank of japan governor has declined to rule out new initiatives with inflation and said there was ample room for further monetary easing. that this will not result in a reduction for policy deductions. inthere is room for easing quantity, quality, and interest rates. other ideas should not be off of the table. we should consider the
comparison between the benefits and the cost. there is no free lunch for any policy. been defeated by the populist alternative for germany, highlighting the strength of the backlash against the open border policy. economic2% and the develop mint debt development minister has talked about a demand of movement of people after the brexit. >> the more they are going to , the more itlimit will limit the presence of u.k. goods. the publicmay says has rejected the idea of the
free movement of labor to the the and she said this to european union. >> the british people were clear that they do not want free movement to continue and they want to see the movement of people coming and people want to see the job and economic opportunity. they are trading goods and services. recall ofhe smartphones is not going to be spendand the company may $1 billion, after replacing the smartphones, according to estimates compiled by bloomberg. they said the amount was a number that was heartbreaking. north korea has fired ballistic
here and record highs. see,est of asia, you can is having a decent session. andare looking at resources you have a few spots with explosions in the southern city. goodest of asia looks very and you can talk about japan and's market is closing up shop, giving up after strengthening that we have seen in the japanese yen. when you have these asian traits, you see where corona and let me just wrap
things up with the want market. andooked better in japan there was an absolute selloff across the bond market. take a step back and the yields are back to the highest level mid-march. much.nk you very david inglis with the update on the trading session and leaders are going to meet today. president will sit down as there is a time of increased tensions. >> for the past four days, let's talk about that meeting. how tense is the meeting going to be?
>> we intense it to be -- we expect it to be quite intense heare are expecting to that we will get a formal sitdown and beijing has been more assertive around the east brewinga with tensions and china sending more vessels around this area. we have had many closed meetings the president said there will be a missile shield on the country and we're hearing canadian prime minister pleading to get the trade deal resolved and saying that they
would push back against anti-globalization. this will get a wrapup statement from the chinese president. there is a draft of the communication of taint of bloomberg, saying they will mention the financial market volatility and the fx markets. warnings of aing tradest backlash against threatening the economy, coming from the economy. thread ofaking the trade to global growth seriously. >> we are hearing from policymakers that everyone is trying to raise concerns about
the protectionism that is rising around the world. growing at or below the rate of growth and it should be growing at twice the rate. this is not great news. take a listen. a trade is no longer commodity of growth. it is lagging and there is no surprise why the world economy is only growing at 3%. itthey are telling me that shoots in the foot. there is a lot of rhetoric going to prevent the protectionism. past fewt job over the
otherher companies -- companies in the u.k.. >> are we seeing this to the right with the elections taking place and france coming soon? is an excellent point thist is rational to start negotiation towards the end with october and, if we get the extremist left gaining momentum, it may be more important to start the process early and it volatility inre the market. know if shee do not runs for a fourth term and this
andhe immigration question the brits will have to deal with this. the rhetoric is changing and the immigration is going to alter shape. >> from the london financial it is how much they're going to give up and there is trade and migration. >> last week, we learned a shaping ofabout the to the line with axes
of smartphones are not what to be cheap. replacing the smartphones, according to estimates by bloomberg. >> reporting receivership last shares with recovery of much of the loss. this is your bloomberg business flash. >> thank you very much. they are expecting to keep a lid on the reserves this month. wage growth missed
the meeting isd this month. >> so, here we are with less than expected and the wages rising with the market not ready for it. look at the behavior and you see that it will be difficult to and we see how markets tend to react. is september off the table? hike are seeing no rate this year and to rate hikes with
this. and ais a egg week justified himself with going to early and too soon. he says that he rejects and reiterates the scope. is this a fair assumption? >> we need to look at the makes rates hurt banks and we see that when rates go negative and the market reacts. thee are negative rates and nature of the monetary policy by the bank of japan will have to
buy more equities and they will have to do more on the fiscal and monetary front, reaching terms with the monetary policy. >> does this done? >> we expect more and it is similar to what they are doing, buying more credit and getting the broken transmission mechanism, realizing that monetary policy cannot solve too much leverage and excess capacity. >> does this make it less negative? duration, rather than asset level and it could be more to damaging, than constructive. levels could make rates more
negative. >> we are looking down the narrow of mario draghi channeling ben bernanke. >> i think it will be the body language and the best case scenario is not going to be the extension of this program with theirmentum not seeing and the escape velocity is what most are hoping for desperately. your definition of escape velocity. thank you. you have been with us for the last half hour. >> that is it for anna and i. all a little bit stronger and a little bit better with the
>> welcome to "on the move." it is 7:30 here in london. i am guy johnson and here is what we are watching this monday morning. who will succeed vladimir putin? we asked the russian president that question in an exclusive interview. central banks take center stage. mark carney faces british lawmakers and what can mario draghi deliver on thursday? we get pmi data