tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg September 6, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
scarlet: bwest stocks closing higher this afternoon. you the question is what'd miss? scarlet: more interest-rate clues may emerge in discussions from five regional fed presidents. joe: investors await apple's big unveiling tomorrow of its latest iphone. will be released change the company sales trajectory. way to bet against stocks is born. why people are looking for industries exposed to exotic hacking attacks. scarlet: we begin with our market minutes. he was stocks drifting higher into the close and the nasdaq .losing at a record high the nasdaq securing a new closing high yet when you look at the dollar, that was down on
the heels of that disappointing services report. joe: energy, utilities also in decline. day.r: a pretty solid we have that feeling when you are so high on the s&p 500, you don't even need to do much to get a new hive. i'm going to look at the market minutes for stocks and looking at some of the sectors in particular, one in the energy group. despite oil being down recently, energy has held up fairly well. we are year to date up 15% and largely flat since the start of july where oil has had more volatility. is veryor that important going forward is the financials group. we were looking at some weakness there. investors start to reassess expectations for a hike. financials have done well here with the expectations.
any changes to that speculation could send that down further. the brakes ended up closing. your today, we are down. in the green for some time today, which happens every now and then. in the red closing so all is well in the world. the let's look at government bond market. notable declines across the u.s. curve. you see the decline in two-year and 10 year yield. a report came out at 10:00 a.m. today much weaker than expected. the big part of the u.s. economy, signs that is also weak. taking back expectations of an below 30%d rate hike for the year. it's basically coin flipped. depressingefinitely yields a bit. i also went to take a look at what is going on in japanese
government bonds. lookis the 10 year jgb and at that. it's getting close to positive territory again. haveack of the rates we seen since the end of july in japan, lots of reasons we will be talking about it more. that red line is the 200 moving they averaged touching that right now. people paying attention to that line closely. lots of factors here but a big story in global bond markets. of course we talked about the iso services report and that sent the dollar weaker. we are looking at the big gains in emerging-market currencies. services at its slowest pace in six years. the dollar falling in anywhere from 2.3% to almost 3% versus the colombian peso and the south
african brand. joe: let's take a look at oil. some hope on monday that there thet be an oil freeze and possible deal between saudi arabia and russia didn't turn out to be as much as people thought and more talked today about not much of a result. not a huge change in lots of competing headlines about what to expect. lots of choppy action in the crude market. oliver: they will take a deep dive now into the bloomberg. a reminder you can find a live the charts at the function at the bottom of the screen. i'm going to look at cash piles in the s&p 500. how much cash does apple have on hand? scarlet: it usually around 200 billion. oliver: we generally talk about apple having $200 billion in cash. ofyou look at cash in terms
cash and equivalents and in terms of short-term investments. i'm starting with the caveat to my chart because there has been a lot of feedback today basically thinking about how to look at cash in the s&p 500 in the longer term trend and how we define it. if you do find cash as not , apple hassecurities some a closer to about 20 billion. if you look at the overall trend, the white line here is showing the top five most cash rich companies in the s&p 500 and 25 companies that have the most cash. then you're looking at the bars that shows what happens in the rest of the market. when you look at cash altogether, it is going up. we look at what is happening at your average company, this is on.ly what is going the past couple quarters were by no means at low cash levels. there is a bit of a takedown for
your typical company when you think about why. i jumped of buybacks, shareholder payout ratios, eroding earnings don't help. it will be important to figure out the fundamental balance sheet situation. very interesting chart given the importance of buybacks to this market. i'm looking at a 10 day chart of amazon.com shares. you can see they basically have moved in tandem and you are probably thinking why are you shilling these things? what possible connection could there be between a precious metal and amazon and you are right. that they the fact really just speaks to the fact there is no such thing as diversification in this market. you could throw a dart and any to assets would probably move the same because we have talked
about bonds verse the s&p and emerging markets. there is no hedge. everything is in unison's here is amazon versus silver. oliver: i have got to give it to you here. we were coming up short but that is a brilliant way to do it. joe: you don't make the connection until you see the chart. similar itunning how is. i'm taking a look at something that is correlated. jpmorgan published a noted a about european banks, warning their returns are unlikely to improve and they need to merge to control rising cost. what you're looking at here, the white line is the european bank stocks index in the blue line is the german 10 year yield, another weight on these stocks. there has been a bit of a divergence here and you can see it with a european bank stocks moving up a bit, the 10 year yield coming down. certainly the two are correlated and the performance of this sector is capped by low yields.
you have lower negative rates, high legal bills, digital competition, the brexit vote. investors reason to be hopeful for this sector of the bank stocks have been climbing relative to the yield staying flat. joe: you have to wonder how far those lines can separate. central bankers are gearing up for september. the bank of canada will meet this week to discuss how to boost their economic growth. later this month, we hear from the federal reserve and the bank of japan. your some insight into what we can expect. thank you very much for joining us. so many different things right now are sensitive to what central banks are doing, particularly with the fed.
walk us through the next month. >> the key things to watch for , the pricebank land for that liquidity over the next few months. i would put it at the head of that heap, the federal reserve. november,it do in december. my personal belief is we will not get a rate hike in september. i was believing that before the numbers came out this morning. the ecb meets this week. everyone wasgo, panicked about brexit. i think that has passed to some extent. i think the ecb will act but not in a magnanimous way. qehink it will extend through march of 17.
my comes the boj. i think the governor is dissatisfied with negative yield at the long end of the curve. i think they are going to abandon that policy or implicitly make a case for banning the policy may be by reducing the numbers of a purchase. more or less, divergent still. scarlet: and divergent is the u.s. versus everyone else. you can check out the fed homepage on the bloomberg. it's a way for you to see everything the fed does, any news about the fed. which to show you events highlight which federal reserve speakers are coming up and we have a slew of events coming up. lacquer and george speak tomorrow. kaplan on friday. to what extent will they tell the fine line that janet yellen has laid out at jackson hole with that idea of we will be cautious with raising interest rates yet over the long-term, we
have to rethink our model? if there was one message that came out of janet yellen speech, it is that one and done is not the way the fed's thinking. i tend to agree because real rates will be indefinitely lower would than they otherwise be. it doesn't mean the fed has room for hiking rates. i don't think it will the in september. whether or not the speakers make a case for december and go back to some calendar-based guidance, i hardly think that will be the case. the market is ahead of the fed at this point, pricing a 25% chance of september. i don't think anyone of these speakers will stick their neck out and pound the table on september. oliver: why did the isn killer for you if you were thinking september? thinking it would be september even before this isn. it kind of put the nail in the
coffin. i think there's still a lot of uncertainty with regard to q3, especially in this unique election cycle. we know a lot of academic economists have done research suggesting policy has a way of dampening activity. i think the feds want to see what q3 pans out to be. the isn number was undoubtedly a bad number. oliver: i have a chart here. looked at we manufacture numbers getting weaker and weaker over the past year and investors talking about we need to look at services because it's a services economy. now services is in doing so well. how concerned should we be about that? >> not that concerned and i will tell you why. that nonmanufacturing index is not just services. if it was, they would, the services index. they call it the manufacturing index. mining is in that index. construction is in that index. it's possible one of the reasons
we have seen a weak number this morning is because construction and mining are weak. it could be a reason and that would square what we already know about the u.s. economy, that mining is poor, the energy patches not doing well in business investments are doing well and that could play a role in my construction has been weak. before we jump the gun, let's because just about how broad this index is. you are sticking around because we will talk about those jgb yields on the rise. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> hillary clinton is calling on donald trump to release his tax returns. secretary clinton spoke to reporters in tampa, florida. >> is tax returns tell a story the american people deserve and need to know and his continuing claims that he cannot release his tax returns because he is under audit has been disproved repeatedly. >> clinton is campaigning in tampa, florida this afternoon. donald trump telling abc news he will release his health records as hillary clinton does the same and he said he might go first. he said "i would love to give full reports." a storm knocked out the power in baja, california. it made landfall with windows 90 miles per hour. they buried a marked the end of
a bloody and deadly summer for chicago. 13 people were shot and killed over the holiday weekend according to the chicago tribune. the number of homicides is within 500. the summer of violence p did august with or hundred 72 shooting victims. it was chicago's bloodiest month in 20 years. mobile news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 and 120sts and one countries. this is bloomberg. have beennvestors selling japanese government bonds pushing yield on the 10 year note to the highest in almost six months. it's a stock reversal from the study dissent since the doj introduced a negative interest rate policy. jerry weissman is with us. what is the story. why the big backup in rates in japan? >> it has to do with the signals the boj has been issuing.
it seems that the boj is having remorse about the implications of negative yields in the long-term curve for the profitability of japanese banks. banks to lend. to the extent the banks are losing money because they are not able to earn a large enough spread, there is remorse about these negative yields. does that mean they will end qe? i don't think so but i think there is an initiative to reduce by reducingrve short and interest rates. joe: is there an element of expectations about more fiscal stimulus? the rates kind of bottomed at a be won the upper hand. there continues to be in the talk.ound the money
>> ben bernanke's way of expressing helicopter money. that is where fiscal programs are announced in the central bank pledges to buy that amount. i think that is off the table. i think that has been off the table for quite a while. i think the only thing that will happen with the boj is potentially a reduction in purchases but lower or negative rates at the short end of the policy rate curve. oliver: to what extent do you think these yields could be a canary in the coal mine? what my signal for german yields or u.s. yields? >> i don't think it means anything for ecb yields now. there is a clear distinction between the rhetoric of the boj in the last few days and of the bcb, which has actually not moved and if anything, moved toward the prospect we have seen officials say they are comfortable with changing the parameters of kiwi -- qe. i think that is what we will the
if we see -- see if we see anything. no follow-through, no connect. oliver: how much can we learn from the trajectory? a negative interest rate and yields plunge. then we get to a point where they start moving back towards zero. is this the effect of the policy or is this the trading thing that is popping up because people may be choosing the momentum and now they want to get out? >> i think it is the effect of the policy. the julyt been for meeting where they chose not to do very much and the prospect of september they will never averse to some extent the purchase program, i don't think we would have seen this backup. central banks are important in determining where long yields go. joe: how high could they go? they the final analysis, will be somewhat anchored by the fact there aren't many great lending opportunities among the
japanese banks. there will be the pension funds there that will continue to be heavily invested. not that many opportunities elsewhere in the bond world. backup think they will that much. we could get positive yields. oliver: 20 look at what is happening in the u.k., it looks like the spin has been positive. what do you make of it? >> not much. what has been doing well recently is these manufacturing pmi's and manufacturing numbers. in some sense, that is what you expect after a plunge. you expect exporters do well and 10% of the uk's economy is manufacturing and a lot of that is for expert to the euro area -- export to the euro area. look at services. those bmis are still below the bar. i don't think those will recover. weissman, currency
oliver: apple expected to unveil its newest iphone tomorrow but expectations are muted as some analysts are looking ahead to next year when apple is rumored to have a more significant upgrade on deck. here to give us a preview is bloomberg technology reporter mark gurman with us from san francisco. this new iphone fascinates me because all of the rumors about the lack of a headphone jack. can that possibly be true? >> absolutely. for this year, apple is planning to remove the 3.5 millimeter
headphone jack up from this version of the iphone. history,ughout apple's it occasionally kills something we assume to be sacred. it killed the 3.5" disk drive and cd-rom. do you predict as a someone who follows technology that in a couple years, apple is not doing something that controversial, it's just ahead of the curve. >> i would agree. i don't know if you would can that are it ahead of the curve because i don't know if other smartphone makers are expecting it to happen this soon but in terms of a wireless future, lots of companies are building their own bluetooth headsets, new headphones that can plug into the iphone and a lightning connector has been available for a year. the time is right to do this i would say. oliver: they will not have a headphone jack. i'm pretty sure beats makes wireless headphones. and we connect the dots here?
>> we could. i don't think removing the headphone jack that some people have speculated is in order to upsell bluetooth headphones from beats. of course that will be a side effect of it but i think it's about fitting other things inside the phone and the headphone jack is a deep for it because you have to stick the 3.5 millimeter component there and removing that gives them more batteries, camera technology, and all sorts of stuff we haven't even thought of yet. scarlet: what are they going to improve on because we talking about incremental changes. the camera is pretty amazing. the battery life is better but there's always room for improvement. no one will be happy until you never have to recharge it. >> and a big we will ever get to that point and certainly this year's phone, i don't the battery life improvement will be radically different than last year's.
but i think we will see a faster processor and the dual camera system and there will be this new pressure sensitive home button on the bottom of the phone and perhaps any additional component in the lower area of the phone to fit that in, new speaker and microphone technology. i'm sure apple will tell as the story behind that tomorrow or maybe we will hear that in the future. joe: what is the future of the formfactor? any changes coming? >> this year's phone looks pretty much identical to last year's phone's it for some cleaner lines on the back. apple is working on a bigger iphone overall for the devices 10th anniversary in 2017 and this upcoming version won't have a home button. it will have more of a focus on brighter, high resolution, more power efficient. oliver: thank you so much. don't miss a special coverage of the big event tomorrow. scarlet: still ahead, a new
; let's get to news this afternoon. clintonrump referenced and president obama's policies at a rally in virginia beach. mr. trump: it you have it illegal immigrants that she wants and he wants treated better than veterans. they are treated better than veterans. and let me tell you, folks. they got their priorities next up. that will change so fast. emma: he said veterans waiting to care could go to private
hospitals in the government could pick up the bill. former president bill clinton earned $18 million working as a consultant for a for-profit college. it was affiliated with laureate international universities. he retired once his wife became a presidential candidate. it was the clintons highest paying client. a judge says bill cosby is blind and might need special accommodations at his upcoming sexual assault trial. the lawyer disclosed the condition in a letter before today's pretrial conference. lawyers are asking prosecutors not be allowed to use a telephone conversation recorded by his accuser's mother and other evidence. ship harassedavy by the revolutionary. the fire bolt was approached by seven iranian vessels on september 4 in international waters in the central arabian gulf.
three votes got close to the fire bolt when another stopped in front of the ship. the fire bolt moved to narrowly avoid the iranians added distance of 100 yards. than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. let's get a recap of today's market action. a disappointing read, sending the dollar weaker. stocks kind of shrugged it off morningthey erased losses. the nasdaq closed at a record high, 50 to 75.91. the new closing high for the nasdaq composite index. >> you know what that did for the economic surprise index? is sent it below zero. we have been trotting that out to show us the positive trend is reversed. >> would you miss? againstay to bet stocks.
adopting internet connected devices. place your trade and publish research. -- joiningch comes us now is jordan robertson. fascinating story. fascinating research on this. , some peoplee's want to figure out if they can find out who is vulnerable to hacking. and publicize that. >> bloomberg broke news of the muddy waters of the shane jude -- st. jude's short trade. it was a very small group of medical device and cyber security researchers. there are not a lot of people out there that do this type of specialized hacking. they areound is that getting inundated by calls from hedge funds, short-sellers,
investment terms. legal firms. all looking for advice on two things. how vulnerable is saint jude as per the muddy waters trade? makingthe marketplace, money on not just medical device risks but other industries as well that are kind of like old-school. oil and gas. we spoke with the ceo -- she did talk about st. jude's vulnerabilities and that against the stock. here is what she told us. the recognize a lot of time, standard operating procedures are to approach the manufacturer. at what we have seen, unfortunately with st. jude medical, is a track history of sweeping these issues under the carpet. straight to aent shorting firm rather than go to the manufacturer.
the you think that companies will start to perhaps pay a premium for this kind of research just to avoid the likes of muddy waters getting a hold of this research first? to think so,like but there is a lot of money to be made. companies pay for cyber security research all the time. ,f you are in a critical sector like energy and these places where there is real potential for life and death risk, you can never do enough. there will always be opportunities for an investment firm to pay one of the cyber security researchers to do this work on the side and force the company's hand. >> a keyword there is opportunity. it is very difficult to find this in the market now. whether it you are short or long, it is a huge conversation. this is the new short. it can also be a big short. how many companies are out there
that can sustain this kind of investing strategy. >> it is a good question because what you had in the case of muddy waters was a very prominent short seller. firmer security form -- and heightened interest. now we have seen st. jude's stock has been down for a week. point, it is based on this report. you need to have that combination. there are lots of industries adopting internet connected technologies for devices that do have life or death consequences. based on folks we've talked to, there's a lot of interest. to get inre looking on the action themselves.
>> the business model of the researchers, do they get a bounty? to look at their research? what is the relationship between the hedge fund and the researcher in terms of how this process works? the mores one of fascinating things about the muddy waters partnership is the cyber security firm that did the research is paid a fee based on the research of the muddy waters trade. if the short works really well, they stand to make millions of dollars. the researchers are very highly skilled and specialized researchers that command a lot of money in the marketplace. we are talking about hundreds of dollars or thousands of dollars an hour. what we have discovered is that as they are approached by hedge funds and investment firms, they recommended a much higher premium. some are charging $3000 an hour for consulting on this specific issue. they realize the market value has increased pretty dramatically. they are capitalizing on it.
the market at this point seems to be able to bear. researcher or hacker agrees with this approach. finding vulnerabilities, shorting the stock, publishing the research and getting it out there. is the objection on moral grounds? >> it is hugely divisive what has happened. what they did is set the industry back years, people say. hackers have worked hard. criminals, we are trying to make devices and software more secure and better. and there is a large legitimate industry. some of people feel these industries don't move without this kind of heavy-handed pressure.
>> how are the regulators responding to this? are there any concerns that the fcc -- sec or anyone else will look down on this? >> talking to researchers, they said that is the number one question they are getting asked by investment terms. -- investment firms. if the fda intervenes in the saint jude case and orders an investigation, then carson block wins huge. but that is the big blackbox because this isn't a fda-defined space where the has really established protocols and established a track history. this is an area where the rules are being written as we go. there is a lot of money at stake trying to figure out what the fda is going to do. >> jordan robinson, bloomberg tech reporter. fascinating story and great
scarlet: it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at the biggest stories in the news right now. elon musk and other officials are sued by a pension fund over the proposed bailout of solar city. a officials breached their fiduciary duties to the company and shareholders. it claims the purchase price is well above $5 billion when the debt is taken into account.
not the almost 3 billion that tesla cames -- claims. in response to public outcry over the cost of medication industrywide. host recently involving the price of the epipen by mylan. will raise prices once a year and will be limited to the single-digit percentage range that should limit increases to slightly above the current rate of inflation. the financial times reports it is part of a concession for record labels. music streaming service is looking for substantial cuts in royalties for the music rights holders. all according to people familiar with the discussion. and that is your bloomberg business flash. what did you miss? a number of polls show that the race is far from over. some show hillary clinton still has the advantage over donald
trump and others show the race is tied. it shows trump two points ahead of clinton. , when wet in context look at these national polls, some people push back. the state-by-state snapshots are more important. what matters more? national polls or state-by-state examinations? what dictate the outcome -- state polls or what dictate the outcome of election day. national polls are important to look at. there are not do from the state polls and 10 to sometimes reflect a trend. this poll is very good news since it is the first poll since the republican convention in july that shows him leading. is one poll, the vast
majority have hillary clinton leading but this could be the beginning of a trend. that is moving in donald trump's favor and it could substantially tighten the race. you still have to give hillary clinton the edge because she is ahead in almost the battleground states. >> are people sold or is this about the collapse in hillary clinton's favorability and trustworthy numbers? and the drip of news about e-mails and clinton foundation stories. is this about him or her? combinationt is a of both. secretary clinton has been largely absent from public appearances. she was raising an impressive $140 million. a lot of stories about her or negative stuff. at one thing that is notable in the cnn polls as it shows
republicans moving in the direction of trump. were of republican voters either undecided or considering the possibility of not he isting trump because outside the mainstream and what many of them are comfortable with. then coming home was a big deal. now we are seeing it. it is a major reason that the polls have shifted in the direction of donald trump. go to thiswe discussion about a potential clinton landslide? is this abnormal for this kind of back and forth? approachingry much a place where the polling looks like a normal sort of demographic. both of these candidates are the single most unpopular nominees in the history of modern polling.
donald trump is number one and hillary clinton is number two. i think that is a big part of it. the fact that we are seeing a race that is now looking in between the 2008 victory for obama and the 2012 race. it is looking more like 2012 lately but we will see the direction. the dreams of a blowout are increasingly fleeting -- dating. a lot of people will be paying attention to the debates. ,n terms of sticking the ground each one will want to gain the momentum. >> it is hard to predict what is going to happen from one day to the next. to hear awe're going lot from donald trump about military and national security. he is shifting to national security and hillary clinton
previewed her comeback today in a speech earlier. morning, basically offering the message that donald trump is not fit to be commander-in-chief. we will be hearing a lot about that and the debates are coming up on september 26. they wrap up in the middle of october and that is the last big flashpoint where we see a dramatic shift in the race. >> people accuse the media of grading trump on a curve but nonetheless, it is true that he hasn't stepped on a rake at any point in the last couple of weeks. what do we attribute this seemingly more disciplined trump to? that he hasn't had anything wildly embarrassing or walk back? that hasn't blown up in his face, essentially. >> he has gotten better at staying on the prompter and not
sort of setting any one of his campaign events or hurting himself in the process. i think that is attributable to the campaign shakeup he had. kellyanne conway is a season pollster. some other conservative may be and she knows what his weaknesses are. i think he has taken some of that to heart. people running the campaign in the media front and they have gotten a lot better at capitalizing at news that comes out and circulating it. i think it's a number of things. part,is, for the most pretty low for trump in terms of
betty, before we get to glenn stevens, the challenge for australia with all the developed is the struggle to get inflation up. have been dealing with low inflation and even though they have cut rates and a have been on a steady slide from 6% down to 1.5%, inflation still remains stubbornly low. glenn stevens last speech as the reserve bank of australia governor took a chill pill and left. essentially, he said, i'm not going to do anything right now. his speech was the shortest statement in the last year or so. what theyleaving with say is the powder dry. let's see what he's going to do as he needs to cut rates. let him be the one to do that. >> this chart is fascinating. you can see the length of the statement and words.
is that the chill pill? >> him saying he's got senioritis. he's done his job and he will leave it for the next guy. the other park also is that there's not much more he could do. there's not much more the rba can do. they can cut rates, but doing that has not stoked inflation. not cause theo currency to follow it all. the dollar has risen in the face of rate cuts. in fact, it rose again overnight. thingsof the remarkable is there has not been a recession in 10 years. gdp.is a chart of it just to negative quarters of growth in the last 10 years. we had a financial crisis and the chinese slowdown. for years, the question was, can
australia continue to grow even though they have the export partner decelerating so rapidly. it has to be considered a pretty impressive track record of stability given how commodities sensitive the economy has to be. betty: and a testament to that is they still have the aaa credit rating as well. and from what i understand about glenn stevens, he has been considered this renegade maverick type of central banker. job inas done a great his years as a reserve bank governor. essentially, his job is done. >> thanks, betty. you can catch betty at 7:00 p.m. new york time for bloomberg daybreak asia which you can always watch.
scarlet: don't miss this coming up tonight, china fx reserves coming up for the month of are just -- august. >> in the apple event tomorrow. that will be on top of live bloomberg. scarlet: no headphone jack is the big news. wax i guess so. be looking at the u.s. job opening labor turnover survey that comes out tomorrow morning at 10 a.m. eastern time. looking for 5.6 3 million job openings which will be a slight hit -- tick up.
>> i'm mark halperin. >> i'm john heilemann. and with all due respect to those who think hillary clinton's coughing fits our respective of her health -- [coughing] is seventh inning stretch over and today marks the first day of the final innings of the presidential race. the concession stands are closing and in nine weeks, we will have a winner and a different kind of concession speech. pray this thing doesn't go into extras because tre