tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg September 15, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EDT
julie: we are going to take you from new york to london and cover stories out of washington, germany, and brazil in the next hour hour. bank of england policymakers said it is a chance of another rate cut this year. anniversary of the bankruptcy soon, we look at year wasare 8 financial crisis. wall street is dipping back into risky crisis era security. julie: golfsmith becomes the next victim as the sport o popularity of the sport begins to fade. it is about 30 minutes into the trading day in the u.s.
let's go to the markets. another day of calm. >> on the surface, things are calm. who knows what we might be in store for the next week or so. if you look at the major averages, a little bit of green. ultimately, not much. futures were doing better before we opened the markets, but those gains have aired back -- paired jobless claimsad in line and in retail sales a little weaker than expected. the question is whether the markets are moving because of the economic numbers today will not be fed going next week or because investors don't lightly make the weakerta -- like economic data. looking at some of the bigger movers today, apple continued to do pretty well. you are looking at it big jump
in the stock of the past four days, up another 260 basis points today. adding $60 billion in market cap. goodyear doing pretty well. that is basically a story that a lot of the stock market has been about recently, which is higher payouts for investors. they were looking at wells fargo on the downside. that company has been doing very poorly. we are looking at five days in the red for wells fargo. what has been happening since investors are reacting to some of the news that the bank had a bit of a scandal on his hands. we look at the dollar and some of the reaction for the u.s. dollar after some of the economic data came out. retail sales, jobless claims, a little bit of a jump since then. , this is10 year
interesting because a little bit of a jump here. treasuries: 10 year, we are up a little bit. what might be happening today is a little bit more of a reaction to what is happening overseas. numbers are pretty lukewarm. if you look at the u.k. numbers, it shot up there. there is a move clear across the pond in the u.k. that is having an effect on markets today. in terms of what is happening with that, your rate hike expectations for december at 53%. largely flat. this number has not moved a lot. we continue to think about what this means for the fed next week. julie: thank you so much. appreciate it. int is going on in the u.k. the wake of the bank of england's comments and not doing anything on rates? mark: sitting on his hands -- its hands.
if the data pans out as the bank of england forecasted, that was the big take away today, no change in rates. the boe did accept the data in the short-term has improved and the second half will not be as bad. what is significant today is the stoxx 600 is down for a six consecutive day. that is the worst losing stretch since february earlier this year. that is the biggest drop since july over six days. this is one of the big decliners today. the clothing retailer with its biggest drop since after the referendum. the number two clothing retailer in the u.k. the current quarter will be established in the year. sales next year will be hurt by brexit induced pricing increases. the flip side of the coin is one of the big growths is wm
morrison supermarkets. increase today. it reported estimates beating results today. cash flow targets will be exceeded. the retailer is still in the foothills of its recovery plan about 18 months after the former tesco executive was hired. aldi, butcustomers to what a turnaround in its share price today. what to talk about the big piece of data we had in the u.k. today beside the bank of england. this was the macro event of the day. retail sales declined, but it was less than forecasters announced i in august.
the data continuing to show resilience in the u.k. even as the retailers in the u.s. were weaker. let's check on the first word news. >> thank you. the cease-fire appears to be holding in syria. the problem now is getting food, medicine, and other supplies to rebel held areas in the city of aleppo. troops ares and prepared to withdraw from one of the main roads leading to the city. russian troops would take over, keeping an open for eight convoys -- aid convoys. been accused them as a running the biggest scandal in that country's history. he received more than $1 million from the carwash
scheme that cost the country millions of dollars. he denies the allegations and says prosecutors have no proof. in the philippines, more details are coming out about the president's war on drugs. since july 1, they have killed 1100 people. another 2300 were killed in cases that are still being investigated. more than 700,000 people have surrendered. a wing flap that washed ashore an island near tanzania has identified as the part of malaysia's flight 370. it was found in june. analysis confirmed it is from the missing aircraft. the aircraft vanished with over 200 people on board in march 2014. china has issued the highest storm warning now as a tightly makes landfall. every rainfall batted the city of -- the typhoon left to dad and 38
more injured in taiwan -- two dead and 38 more injured in taiwan. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. back to you. mark: thank you very much indeed. let's turn out to an exclusive interview. jeremy corbyn delivering a speech on the economy just moments ago at our very headquarters right here. afterwards, and edwards spoke to him and asked him what he things is reasonable when it comes to a timetable for article 50. >> i would have thought the government would probably set out a clear position now than this autumn and have talks with the european union and the governments. we are doing the same with governments and opposition a cross europe.
>> you have talked today about no backroom deals. can you see a situation where you would vote against the triggering of article 50? jeremy: we would reserve our position.we would reserve our right to oppose . respect thedon't result of the referendum. obviously we do, but it want to set up thaose lines. the first part was membership of the european investment bank is important. these things are possible. we are looking very closely at the norwegian model as well as talks with other countries because there are many who want to have a relationship with the european union who maybe be are not members but want to develop it. says it will be
something but you are talking about using somebody else's model like norway. jeremy: not using their model, but learning from norway and maybe we can learn a great deal from normally because it has a successful expanding economy, albeit largely based on oil. they have a very strong social democratic tradition. they have a huge and very effective welfare state and health service. of their socially-based economy is not that different from what we talk about. >> what do you want to do with regards to freedom of movement? will you be in to give any ground on freedom of movement? jeremy: at the moment, there is freedom of movement. not for people outside the european union. my concern was never so much of the right of people to move as
the exploitation that went with it. there is an example where you have loaded eastern european people in some cases denied living wage or minimum wage their. featuree, i made a big which would stop the undercutting. undercutting is the real issue. >> on the subject of freedom of movement, do you think that still has a place within britain's relationship? jeremy: i think that british people will also want to have the right to travel to europe. to payll not want to get to a visa to go to the european union like paris or brussels for example. there are 2 million british people who made their homes in other parts of your, mainly spain and france -- of europe, mainly spain and france.
if the british government says we will stop freedom of movement of polish workers or others and spain says ok, bruce british people can go, we don't want that. the question of having a degree of that between countries is important. >> you talk about the need of infrastructure investment. how do you see that being paid for? talked about peoples qe. because of the measures the bank of england has taken, do you see inank of england role funding infrastructure? jeremy: they put in $60 billion recently. the japanese government has used qe several times in order to stimulate its own economy. we would want to hundred and 50 billion government investment --
250 billion government investment. the point is to set up a well-funded investment bank that can give us the essential we need. railways.e particularly the rail infrastructure in the north. northeast and northwest is crucial and needs upgrading. that might hear more about in the auto statement from the chancellor and more about taxation. which areas would you like to see higher taxation in the u.k.? jeremy: i want to see corporate taxation levels that are equivalent to the rest of the country. we seem to be going on a downward spiral on that. i don't think that is a good way to go forward. i don't want us to be an economy that is offshore of europe by trying to attract investment in on the basis of low taxation. i want it to be investment that comes in on the action of a high
skilled highly motivated .orkforce someu talked today about of the changes you want to see in business and investment you want to see including in broadband. the notion of re-nationalizing any part of the infrastructure around broadband? what parts of the economy should be re-nationalized, and which should? jeremy: the train operating companies should certainly be publicly owned. it is enough for monopoly, and we pay for it ourselves. on the case of the broadband structure, telephone infrastructure, it is required as a form of a publicly earned company to maintain the infrastructure. i want to make sure they maintain the model they have. public thirstis a
meeting. let's bring in the global managing editor paul thompson. what a fascinating period we are watching. to what extent is japanese monetary policy changing the shape right now of our markets around the world? >> i think it is all about japan right now. is a lot of speculation in the market that next week's meeting, with comes out the same day as the fed's policy meeting that the bank of japan will do ofething along the lines lower short-term interest rates but look to find a way to push higher longer dated interest rates. that has caused a big selloff in the past 30 days. so many japanese investors have pushed into european market and u.s. markets because of the low yields they starting toat is
get back home in japan so that is putting up the yield curve. effect?at is the ripple how does that influence the mindset of investors and policymakers around the world? paul: i think it is twofold. first of all, you have a physical effect of the money being pulled out from also, there is some kind of intellectual contagion. is starting to do things differently, how will that affect the way the ecb does things? should investors restarting to think differently about him -- be starting to think differently. julie: also in terms of not just the psychological effect, but the actual money flow effect, we have seen the shorter end of the not just in japan but elsewhere as well get more and more popular.
is that what you are hearing from investors? are they talking about that trade getting even crowded already? paul: i am not sure about crowded, but there has been a big move into the shorter dated end of the curve. people are hunkering down at the moment. they are wondering, we don't know what we will get from the central banks next week. there is a lot of risk out there. that is the situation people tend to go to safety. julie: we're seeing a signal we and not seen since 2012, that is the original in yield between the 30 year and a five-year in the u.s.. in 2012, was that a signal is something? is there a feeling this is a tipping point because of that? paul: to the point is on everybody's mind right now. is not just bonds that are affected, but currencies are starting to feel the effects.
utilize talking about the correlations whether we can have ofond rout, which also kind cop the move of stocks in its wake. mark: how much more upside should there be? draghi's five-year which gauges inflation five-year from five years. as we can see, inflation stuck at 12%. stuck.ge is o far?elds back to paul: it is a great chart, isn't it? same in japan. we have not got inflation, but there is so much angst about the yield curve that people are
talking about. is that a way to keep the stimulus flowing into the economy but give a little more yield out of the backend for the people that need that yield like be able tods carry on buying those funds? is there a way to keep banks profitable but having the the such?y for loans and mark: we live in fascinating times. thank you for talking us through it. julie: still ahead, we will check on early market movers one hour into the u.s. trading day. we are seeing stocks rise to session highs. tech is the strong performer helped in part by apple rising for a third straight session. this is bloomberg. ♪
york miami from new julie hyman. mark: you are watching bloomberg markets on bloomberg television. julie: let's go back to the markets desk now. all of her is looking at some retail movers today. oliver: i am because that is the so let'st came out start out with retailers and some of the clothing companies. nordstrom, macy's, t.j. maxx doing well today, especially nordstrom up 2%. suggestings numbers somewhat of a slowdown from what we have seen from the american consumer. -.3%. if you look at home improvement stocks, think about home depot and lowe's not doing so well.
interestingicularly given that over the longer term, the housing data had been good, but in terms of going in and improving homes, a little bit of a weakness today. when you have a retail sales myths, that will not be great for a line of these companies. looking at the third type of retailer here, looking at autos. s of cardsy sale but those improving cars and buying parts. the only stock that is an issue because they are read pretty much across the board, and as we are seeing in reaction to the retail numbers this morning. mark: thanks very much. still ahead on bloomberg television, big interview with robert barrow. don't miss it. this is bloomberg. ♪
renzi. passed ball alliances the future of europe is at stake because of brexit and other crises. inmet with angela merkel paris today as says european leaders must underscore the eu's benefits and values. because for greater joint defense capabilities. angela merkel is trying to prevent more local election losses for her christian democratic union party. she told voters in berlin to reject populism and defended her open-door refugee policy. polls show that her party may be bumped out of the city government in berlin. donald trump outlined his plans to cut taxes for individuals and businesses today. he looked cut the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%. a trump advisors is the plan would leavd to 4% annual growth.
theoup says it would cost treasury $3 trillion over 10 years. he speaks today to the economic york.f new you can watch him here on bloomberg tv starting at 11:30 a.m. eastern time. the new hampshire union leader is endorsing gary johnson for president, breaking a 100 year tradition of supporting republicans. the paper blasted both major party nominees, saying having to pick between the two is a lousy choice. conservative republicans have backed off their demands for an immediate vote on impeaching the head of the internal revenue service. criticized has been for the way he handled an investigation into the irs treatment of conservative groups. a house committee will hold a hearing, but the vote is likely after the election. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries.
this is bloomberg. julie: thanks. bank of england policymakers indicated there is still a chance of another rate cut this year. 's a collision is rising the bank of japan will go deeper into negative interest rates. what influence will this have on the federal reserve when it meets next week? barro ining in robert de nir washington. a lot to consider, but want to start on the bank of england and its decision today and is commentary. the massage this is of a the bank of england at this point, and do you think the uk's economy will be able to withstand the departure from the eu? robert: in terms of central banks, the bank of england, the federal reserve, i think there is far too much attention paid to the daily actions of these banks. quite a minor issue with respect to what is going on in the economy. mostly been reactive
going back to the great recession and a weak recovery that has been in place since 2010 in the u.s. and elsewhere. monetary policy is quite a secondary matter even though that might not be what they want to hear. julie: it may not be what they want to hear either. mario draghi did not seem to acknowledge that at least to some extent. what please should the central banks have? what should they be doing anything in that kind of scenario -- if anything in that kind of scenario? robert: they should have moved in the opposite direction by a while ago. they should be having short-term interest rates and something like 82% to 3% range, something that is more normal rather than .his crazy policy there is no reason for that kind of policy.
basically, it does not leave any room for positive inflation. if you want to have inflation and a 2% to 3% range, it has to go along with nominal interest rate close to being similar to that. mark: is it time to bid inflation targets? unable-bank seem to be to boost inflation to get near those targets. robert: i think they have been going in the wrong direction. it made sense in terms of 2008 and 2009 to have very deep cuts in nominal interest rates as the federal reserve and other central banks did. the longer-term policy is actually something that has to be an opposite direction. in order to be consistent with inflation, let's say 2% to 3%, short-term nominal interest rates cannot be zero or negative. they have to be something in a positive range, something more in the normal range we used to see in the longer-term history. mark: you have been opposed to
stimulus spending the past, but calls increasing for the government to step up stimulus spending measures. are there any circumstances in which you back stimulus spending? robert: i think there are things the government that can do that are useful, particularly some large-scale infrastructure investments in the u.s. might be productive, but you want to think about that in terms of actual productivity. the product has been very low productivity growth for some years going back to 2010 in the u.s. and maybe even longer. you don't want to think of stimulus spending per se. the main reaction to the great recession in the u.s. particularly since 2009 and 2010 was a big increase in transfer payments. that is not something you think about in terms of stimulating productivity growth, which is the core problem in the u.s. and elsewhere. julie: to back up finally to talking about the fed and boe
interesto more regular rates historically, the argument in the other direction would be that the economies are not strong enough, that they are vulnerable in the event of those interest rates going up. topplethink it would or harm a fragile economy? robert: that has been no economic recovery since 2009, 2010. a recovery in the u.s. means you have to recover some of the gdp lost during the recession so you have to grow it and above normal rate. actually, it has been the opposite. we have had a zero or negative economic recovery since the end of the recession. that is a serious problem. i don't minimize it, but it is about real things. it is about poor investment opportunities, poor growth prospects.
it is not about monetary policy which is a sideshow with respect to the problems we face. mark: place for joining us today. harvard university professor of economics. still coming up on bloomberg, we will hear from sheila of goldman sachs. should will tell us why she thinks there are big opportunities in india. this is bloomberg. ♪
the company says it has already sold out of its initial supply. mark: golf in the ruff? candidates for the race is elitist image as another golf company goes bankrupt. america england has decided to keep it stimulus policy unchanged, all eyes are turning to the bank of japan and the federal reserve. economists are making best the boj governor and policymakers will make deeper cuts to negative interest rates. here is professor charles goodhart. >> i think the market realizes there is a need for reconsideration. important development over the next weeks will not be the u.k. or the u.s., but in japan, where the bank of japan is doing a complete reconsideration, a conference of reconsideration of the monetary policy. mark: we have another sign of the british consumer confidence stating resilient in the wake of
the brexit. sales were down 2/10 of a percent. july's number was revised upwards to 1.8%. that is the strongest sales gain for july in 14 years. the british-based information provider in former is expanding its presence in the u.s. it agreed to buy an american company which publishes trait information. the price, $1.6 billion. apple is not disclosing how many iphone 7's it hassle, but it's as the iphone 7 plus model has sold out. available for walk-in customers in a number of countries tomorrow. for our quick
take where we provide context and background on issues of interest. with tiger woods's golf they imploded in 2009, the entire sport got stuck in the rough. the question is, will be sport -- a sport and don't quickly enough -- the sport adapt quickly enough? millionropped from 31 and has declined even more in japan. nike six. selling golf equipment while adidas is shifting away from the sport. -it brings another round of suffering to the brands reeling down of chesshut sports authority. the average age
of avid once a week players in england jumped to 63 years old in 2014 from 48 in 2009. today's 50-year-olds are unlikely to be able to retire as early as their 65 it all partners the. reformers point to other sports a cornerket that turn of late. golf had more new players last year it any time in the early 2000's. the problem is retaining them. shorter courses with less rough and even experiments with bigger holes. critics wonder whether the sport may be its own worst enemy. you can read more about golf and a worker takes -- and our quick takes.
go to bloomberg.com for more stories. mark: that selected the markets. the recent spike in volatility are worrisome to the chief executive of goldman sachs asset management international. s at the market institute aged summit in singapore -- asian summit in singapore. >> i don't think we will see a worse reaction. i think the volatility is an opportunity. volatility means differentiation in markets, and we are seeing clients come back into the markets, particularly looking at emerging markets. >> it seems like a bipolar market right now. they were not expecting a rate hike. markets are not prepared for a rate hike. not much has been factored it. will happen to emerging markets? you are pretty optimistic. sheila: when you look at emerging markets even now as
people rebalance constantly their views of a fat rate hike, and we still believe -- fed rate hike, and we still believe one will happen this year. if we try to diagnose bipolar is him or any other mental disorder in the markets, we have another long conversation, but people are looking at nikki fundamentals right now and seeing the difference in valuations. >> you talk about fundamentals, you are suggesting fundamentals, the movement into em? some disagree. sheila: some disagree. i think the key is when you look at em, people look at the benchmarks, and benchmarks are looking backwards. we always need to look forward in e.m. 17% financials, 15% energy and materials. these are the sectors of the beginning of the movement in emerging markets. where are the changes we see
happening in emerging markets? and market of 8000 stocks 700 are represented in the average benchmark, so you really need to go beyond just one minor on e.m. you need to victimize sectors and the right country. >> which countries and which csector? sheila: india. the passage of the gst shows that modi still has some power and momentum behind his reforms. it is still one of the biggest changes in india since the 1990's. >> what do you perceive the asian markets? sheila: at the end of the day, people will still look towards china. it is the huge impact in the room. when you think about what is going on in china, the shift is never an easy one. when you think about that and the size of the chinese economy, what has been done is actually quite remarkable. people will want to buy take --
watch tick by tick. those are key factors for the impact on the overall markets within asia. there.heila patel julie: still ahead, it has been a years now since the collapse of lehman brothers, which sparked a global financial crisis, but one complex financial product is making a bit of a comeback. we will tell you what it is. this is bloomberg. ♪
at the same time, one senator is leading the charge for serious financial reforms. josh prenot is our national correspondent business week. march joins us. it is no surprise with senator is leading the crusade. it has been a prequel one for her and for folks like bernie sanders -- frequent one for her and for folks like bernie sanders. is there still is urgency to people behind bars? >> there is a lot going on with warren's timing. when she is doing is going to the justice department and the justice department and is general ncv government investigated the root of the financial crisis. they recommended 24 individual corporations be prosecuted. it never happened. those names became public in march. more and has written a letter to the ig saying i wanted to
investigate why no one was charged. saying you dider not charge hillary clinton with her e-mail server, yet you came out with all of this information and this big statement explaining why. i would like you to do the same to explain why he did not prosecute the wall street bankers. part of it is meant to be a shot across the bow to hillary clinton who could be 3, 4, 5 months away from you next president. why?: do we know they have not come out without it! but have there been inklings why? josh: we don't know. what warren told me in our exclusive interview is she wants somebody to explain what is the process, what did you find them a while did you decide not to charge anyone? she does not think it is valid, but the statute of limitations for a lot of these crimes is 10 years. it is the eight year anniversary. there are two more years any new
president coming who she would like to be more aggressive in waging these prosecutions. mark: i want to bring in alastair. making a comeback. luckily, i watched the big short the other day so i had a refresher course. what is going on? >> it is a product of two things. one is regulation, which incentivizes banks to shift on their books -- off their books. and then you have loads and negative interest rates and bond yields so they are having to take greater risks to get similar returns. they are open to exploring or buying riskier products. mark: banks are uploading the risks. who is picking them up? alastair: some pension funds are picking up the risks. we have the story where a dutch pension fund which represents
nurses and social workers is buying what is called the first lost piece of it. it sounds kind of risky. they say they are experts in the product. you would have to say they would probably not be buying such risky step if the environment was different. julie: i hear things like that, and we hear things like the recent wells fargo story about employees there opening up accounts without people's permission. that means me to another question about elizabeth warren's timing. it does seem there is a groundswell of outrage for lack of a better non-overused word about wall street at this juncture. issue trying to capitalize on that? josh: absolutely, and it is worth pointing out these two are related. one thing she has discovered it she has the power to lean hard on regulators as these products
make a comeback. she wants public pressure on the regulators that are supposed to be keeping watch over these things to make sure we do not wind up in another financial crisis. having that background populist anger swelling up after wells fargo and some of these other things is a wave that she is trying to surf. mark: give us a sense of how prevalent these transactions are. are they hard to track? i imagine they are essentially private. can you give us a sense how great this market is? alastair: sadly not. it is opaque. anything can be going on there. they are black box. analysts suggest it is going. the reasons being the ones i mentioned earlier, interest rates being low and investors being pushed to take greater risks and banks being incentivized to upload it -- offload it. mark: is this going to end ugly?
something one of your contributors to your article hones that question. alastair: it has the elements of ending ugly, yes. mark: scary stuff, julie. julie: speaking of that, it is punitive, not preventative. josh: it is punitive. she is angry nobody has gone to jail and they have been no criminal charges of anyone significant on wall street. and she said we are on the outside of a new administration, a new justice department. i want to put pressure on these regulators to be tough, to be tougher than obama's doj has been. she said that explicitly. part of this is meant to guide future behavior. julie: what are her chances of succeeding? josh: i think it is pretty slim. it would be quite a concession
by the fbi to say we give up. here you go, senator warren. it is being talked about and it let people are angry about it, and we are in the heat of a presidential campaign. julie: thank you so much. by the way, senator elizabeth warren will appear on bloomberg tv later today. be sure to tune in at 12:45 p.m. eastern to get more details on what she is talking about. mark: coming up on the review close, policymakers indicating that is a chance of another rate cut this year. we will talk to a former policymaker. this is bloomberg. ♪
markets. ♪ you fromwill take washington to paris and cover stories out of new york, the u.k., and china in the next hour. here is what we're watching today. england policymakers indicate there is still a chance of another rate cut this year. what is the long-term fallout from brexit? we ask a former bank of england deputy governor. julie: what is donald trump's economic vision for america? he lays out his proposal this hour. we take you live to the new york economic club. former ecb president gives his perspective on the euro area economy and its central bank policies. should the ecb extend its qe program? that is coming up.