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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  September 19, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT

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scarlet: u.s. stocks closing this afternoon buoyed by rallying commodities. joe: but the question is, what'd oyou miss? scarlet: we look ahead to the fed and boj rate decisions on wednesday. joe: and the colorado gold forum. fedex reportstt: earnings tomorrow. the charts you can't miss ahead of that release. scarlet: we begin with our markets. the dow and the s&p finishing higher, just barely, while the nasdaq closing -- we just ticked over and all the indexes are in the red. a little change for the major indexes. this is positioning as we get ready for the fed and boj position come wednesday. the you look at the rest of world, global equities are higher after a two-week slide. joe: this week is really all
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about the big central bank decisions. matt: take a look at the index is here. some of the movers on those indexes. the dow, the s&p really unchanged. down about .2%. shakerss the movers and , earlier today, we saw financials with the biggest gainers. they were overtaken. gains coming out of wells fargo, i thought it was interesting. rising, one of the most widely followed analysts say that they will reap the benefits of auto to point auto 2.0 asof they call it. u.s..nterest rates in the
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a slight fix up. again, it's a very quiet ahead of the big central bank decisions. werequity winners utilities and real estate. again, very minor. scarlet: we could see flows pickup up, and effect as well. thosellar is weak or for central bank decisions.
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joe: some disruption to the infrastructure. matt: i am looking at what is happening with the japanese population. japan has an aging population and it's pretty amazing. you can do that on the bloomberg terminal. people over 65. 65 or older. almostcentage of them, 27% in japan compared to a .5% for the rest of the world. and that has been steadily rising. this is a chart that goes back to 1995. there is no slowdown globally.
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>> people outside the country come in and emigrate over. .ll signs indicate joe: risk is showing up in the market and lots of people showing up to the mexican peso. the trump risk in the peso. curves.e forward risk.es of downside it's the blue line there. and we see it goes out nicely
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there. this red line, you can see there's a lot of concern given the economy there. and this green line. the further you go out on the curve, you see more concern. you want to pay more to protect against future events. you see a sharp increase. the estimate of the peso volatility, by preparing against another neighbor in canada, you can really see what makes the peso standout.
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scarlet: there's a lot of debate over whether it is a good gauge for his electoral chances. joe: but you can see on this , traders are playing it. scarlet: i'm going to stay with the emerging-market theme here because we will see a piling age of emerging-market assets. i am looking at the price here. the blue line shows a share outstanding. vanguard is used by more advisors for retail investors. people are still getting the
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price going down. the demand is still rising. people are looking. i would continue to support this risk asset trade. there is a lot of pent-up money to potentially go. scarlet: and you definitely don't see the quick movements as much. the specialist was telling me there is a lack of flow favored by institutional investors. matt: we have a little bit of breaking news. intel is appointing bob swan is the ceo. he is the cfo, and we know smith
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was the cfo before. he is eligible for an annual bonus target payment. stacy smith was on all the time. >> stacy smith has been ceo since 2006. a 10 year tenure. matt: he was an operating partner. he was the cfo of ebay before he went. qualifications, they will be taking a broader role. coming up, we're
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looking at an earnings miracle. it will require companies to reduce profits by 13%. we will break down if that is at all possible. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: u.s. stock analysts are predicting the largest expansion since the bull market began. it would require s&p 500 companies to increase profits at a rate that hasn't happened since 2011. the break things down for us is bloombergs oliver run it. is it possible? possibler: anything is
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but probable is a totally different story. i will check out what happening. there are very different stories. we are at the white line. on the expected basis, what will happen over the next 12 months. it is the whitest difference between the two metrics that has happened. stocks are looking cheap and looking expensive. the gap has widened out. upy've gotten hit, pushing the value. analysts have been taken out.
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we will basically look at what happens with the actual earnings in the market. this is showing expectations that haven't gone anywhere. we haven't had general growth problems on the back of a sluggish economy. look at expectations, they go lots of places. the blue and white, if the trailing 12 month earnings. cap between the two is pretty big. we are expecting to get to the end of this year, 2016. 11746. end of next year, you have an even bigger jump. the climb from where we are, even if we hit this year's numbers, it will be a 13% gain on top of that in 2017. there are expectations here that
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you have to be thinking about all the different pieces that have to fall into place. but then they get even more complicated if we actually look at what is going on on a global basis. we are looking at here is price to unexpected 12 month earnings for both the white line which is s&p 500 and the blue line which is the msci index minus the u.s.. we see the gap, the spread of the bottom panel. as this gap widens out, the rest of the world is looking pretty cheap. trading on 15 point times forward. the only problem with this is that if you were to actually look at the trailing, this chart would be flipped. u.s. stocks would be looking cheap. even more aggressive when you look at the rest of the world and what's more expected for the next 12 months. this will be extremely important
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if you want to figure out how you look at them compared to bonds. things will have to happen. back to you guys. scarlet: bombings are bringing terrorism back to the forefront on the campaign. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: hillary clinton says that she understands how to fight terrorism.
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she is the only candidate who "has been part of the hard decisions to take terrorist off battlefield." secretary clinton spoke at a campaign event today in philadelphia. areetary clinton: there reports of a suspect in custody. we must remain vigilant. this is a fast-moving situation. and a sobering reminder that we need a steady leadership in a dangerous world. mark: she called them a serious challenge that the country can meet "in concert with our values." it was a criticism of donald trump's proposals who said he would bar emigration from nations with ties to terrorism. the same club police say there is nothing over a weekend. officials say a man in a private security uniform stabbed nine before an officer shot him to death. the islamic state claimed responsibility. north carolina's republican
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leaders have talked about rescinding their law limiting ogee bg antidiscrimination protections, but only if charlotte moves first to repeal the never enforced city ordinance expanding protections. the bathroom law has led the boycotts that cost the state millions. doing more to control mass migration. he speak to the u.n. tomorrow. they will argue that it hurts both refugees and the countries they enter. the prime minister will say migrants should be encouraged to claim asylum and the first safe country they reach. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. wrapping up a trip to the u.s. and canada as they assure investors leave the
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european union. they talk about the goals of this visit. >> my concern was leaving the european union briggs it -- brexit. that somehow london will stop being open-minded and outward looking. it's a very simple campaign. london is open. >> what i don't understand is where is the next london? >> there is no alternative. business people that work creating jobs, they have access to the regulators. why would you want to go elsewhere? when the prime minister speaks for you and the rest of the united kingdom, who is she speaking to.
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>> unregulated access to a and if you're going to be on the right side of history. >> and this week and next week is the idea that they will be
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, dong a wonderful story they need the single market or do they not? >> it is a beacon for the rest of the world showing london is open. that means having an access to a single market. my point is very simple. opportunity to reconfigure the relationship with the eu and recognize america, canada, australia, japan, china, india. with tomthat was along keene. matt: the weekend attack has put terror back on the front burner.
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in washington, thanks for joining us. we just saw hillary clinton's .esponse it frankly seemed typical for her measured and conservative way. what about donald trump's response? was it typical for his typical way? >> it was in the sense that it was very blunt and kind of speaks to that characteristic. he blames this. he promised to get tougher. in a sense of who is tougher into a stronger, he stores -- scores on leadership and the right temperament.
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but as the debate we're having right now. joe: saturday night, trumpet jumped out there and called it a bomb and a bunch of people attacked him for jumping the gun on this question. he proves to have been right. , in onean example of sense, being a responsible saying something wild. too afraid to call it -- what it really was. says, his intuition is correct and once again, everybody was too afraid to call it what it really was and he knew what it was right off the bat.
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>> i don't know that experts would consider it advisable to suspect and openly guess. catastrophic event, to say i told you so. he did this with the orlando shooting as well and set i warned that stuff like this would happen. >> the jew not automatically think it was terrorism? matt: he takes the root less traveled here scarlet:. and speaking of donald trump, he is speaking in fort myers, florida, as part of a campaign rally. in forta live shot myers, florida. the bombing seems to play right .nto his hands
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it. it given his rhetoric on closing down borders and kicking muslims out of the country. do we presume he makes hay out of this for the next two or three days? and can drop other issues by the wayside? will be thehis single most important thing for the next couple of days. if it becomes about who can crack down the most and drop the most bombs and offer the most aggressive and fierce response, he will probably have a leg up. who has the experience and the background to not overreach and do this smartly? hillary clinton has the leg up. the interesting debate these two have been having is who the terrorist group isis would rather have elected president. each of them is singing isis wants their opponent to be elected. an interesting point hillary clinton made that we can expect
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donald trump and his speech we by campaign officials to discuss . this notion that hillary clinton said isis prefers donald trump u.s.se they believe the wants a holy war against islam. and it would drive moderate muslims into the hands of radicals. it is something we will hear a lot about. joe: one of the criticisms is that he talks tough on terrorism but offers few details. is this something we can expect the clinton team to hammer on? >> trump relies on big overarching promises. scarlet: fedex is set to release earnings. we dig into the company as investors await details. this is bloomberg.
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mark: president obama try to assure americans after a series of terror attacks in new york, and minnesota. he also reaffirmed the commitment to fighting terror. president obama: the investigation is moving rapidly. as is my practice, i will leave it to the fbi and law enforcement to provide details. everyone is aware at this point that there is a person of interest. mark: he said it is not connected to the bombings. he spoke with chris christie and
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andrew cuomo. hillary clinton is making a special a feel -- appeal to millennial voters. she held the focused attempt. she is telling adults that donald trump, the demographic shows less enthusiasm for her candidacy than other democrats. it would cost the government trillions in tax revenues. the conservative leaning tax foundation. they estimate the plan would add $10 trillion to the debt over a decade. the truce in syria despite a declaration by the military that it is over. john kerry says humanitarian aid deliveries to parts of the country are picking up. secretary kerry brokered the accord indonesia with russian foreign minister.
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global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts and over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt, back to you. matt: the price of gold has risen 20% this year but there are signs that the gold rally could be showing a little bit of fatigue as asset managers and hedge funds cut their positions over concerns over surprised interest rate increases. not that that will happen, but that is why they are doing this. let's get perspective by someone with a birds eye view. daniel joins us with an exclusive interview. >> thank you for making time for us today. quite a different environment compared to last year. it has been pretty consistently $1300. they would like to see you open your wallet.
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the delivery and the way we have been delivering. they start chasing volume. the focus that they've been doing the last three and half years in delivering results. >> the mine and australia, they have operated the other half of that. anyone still interested? we took over management a little over a year ago and we can improve safety and reduce cost by 30% and improve reduction by 20%. we welcome the process that goes through.
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we would want to acquire it for new value. it is something we've got to negotiate. >> it is something we would have to negotiate. there is supportive of the management. >> you have an interesting history. 25% of the ridge mine. would it make sense to do some sort of a deal that way? they give you that half. 100% and we own 25%. we already have a relationship.
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everything is always on the table when it comes to these things. thatey've made it clear they've started to think about acquisitions again. see the inevitability of a tie up between the two companies at some point. what is your view on that now? we have a couple of projects coming online in the next couple of months. we are not in any rush. we've got a good pipeline to maintain production. we have the value that we deliver. >> you don't need to merge, but would it make sense to? what we cancused on control, and that's our own business. >> the cash flow is $350 million after taxes. higher interest rates,
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are you worried about the impact it's going to have? >> we see gold come up from where it was at the beginning of the year. the cash to continue to pay down debt. it is down to one, the three-year target. we have budgeted and built into the system much lower gold price assumption. if it comes off a little bit, we are set for that. >> what are you expecting from the fed? i would like to see the fed make a decision. >> a lot of your debt repayment depends on the $920 million. significantade payments and pay down $1 billion in debt so far this year already. that transaction is moving along.
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i was in indonesia a week and a half ago. we had a chance to thank the team on the ground there. we see it coming to a close in the next several weeks. >> how much have you allocated for the dividends? >> i think we've made good progress on debt repayment. we have the project pipeline and we will reevaluate the dividend is go through the pan -- planning process. we will move the focus from debt reduction to projects, external projects with good returns. and we look to enhance the dividend this quarter. tot will double from 10 $.20. pensee with gary goldberg. president and ceo.
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you have charts on fedex? scarlet: fedex will offer a grandson to the growth of u.s. economy. tntintegration of the acquisition, let's dig in the fedex. the $12 20 five cents doesn't include the tnt operations. to add to earnings until the following year. a one dollar to earnings in 2018. to get a want firsthand update. it should generate $59 billion in revenue this fiscal year through the express ground services set -- shipment. you see the ground really leading the way, posting 20% growth last quarter. gains andume
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e-commerce is critical. this massive growth is basically a straight line up. it helps to drive margins. , it is a white line from ground. boosted demand for less profitable businesses. express makes up 52% of fedex's total revenue, making it the world's largest airfreight carrier. they have achieved the profitability thanks to initiatives that included modernization. the closing bell, look for all these details. joe: we will hear about why the
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software maker thinks it can win the cloud business. this is bloomberg. ♪
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joe: oracle open world is underway and san francisco. we talked to oracle ceo mark hurd earlier today on bloomberg tv and asked how oracle is reaching the -- new customers.
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>> they donate hardware or software on premises. >> people with microsoft, google, amazon, what do you offer there. we are now in this show really
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highlighting our infrastructure capabilities. it is better security than anyone on the planet. >> they really break it out with a different model. what does this mean for oracle? the great thing is the major supplier to the cloud is ourselves. we have processing capabilities. are justns we believe as good as they are across the rest of the city. it is one place competitors might -- >> there is a bit of the issue in the cloud, you have to invest before you get revenue. if you went back to margins or the sass past is this, we are at 39%. in the last quarter, we are 62.
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we invested in a lot of data centers up front. we put a lot of capital and. >> there are other companies that have had big adjustments. closed thee just cloud revenue and licensed business that grew 16%. that is the way to look at the combination of the two together. corey: you've had such great maintenance revenue streams against time margin businesses. the cloud tends to have less maintenance with it and i wonder what it means as you look out. have -- ars if they
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couple of things would happen. we are doing more for the customer and providing hardware. it would go higher. and the margins would be reflected in that margin line. >> a company called salesforce. buying growth with acquisition. how does it look at by dover build? >> we do well. of $5 billion. the yield for these is so
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exciting. there is a mapping of what we build. in the world, we got other companies. there is a laudable thing. is they have a lot more money. how high are you willing to go? >> we are in that process right now. we have regulatory hurdles except the u.s.. >> as you look forward, are there more deals to be done out there?
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>> we go through a filter with every acquisition we do. it makes strategic sense, is it a business we can actually run and operate? they are the best editor of our future. matt: today and tomorrow at 7:30 p.m. in london for his interview with oracle's other ceo. they are co-ceo's. scarlet: volatility in routes in the japanese yen. at head of this week's bank of japan decision. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: what did you miss? a volatility revival in the japanese yen. one week volatility surged by the most since july. i have it pulled up right here. what you are seeing here is dollar yen, or the yen-dollar. it's the white line, so we have inverted it. the stock market is in blue. uncertainty over the way forward for japan's central bank. any, action will japan undertaken monetary policy this week? let's discuss with betty liu. betty: i thought the charlie it was pretty good. it shows you what you are saying is missing with the yen. with this chart also shows is that, as we know, when volatility goes up, it usually
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means the goes up as well. people are fearful and buying up the safe haven currency. givenst few months or so, how peculiar that is. that boj policy is not working. it has broken down back in june. everyoneis that believes that the boj is the end of the road. and they've got to do something else. or else -- >> or else what? that's my question. betty: no, no. matt: the economy has to struggle along without a central bank? betty: they have had several lost decades. the yield steep in curve. they own 40% of the japanese government bond market.
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what more can they do? like, this is the unknown. the really unknown here in japan. people don't want to think that far ahead. let's -- scarlet: let's pull up the tournament to show earlier. it's the purple line that spiked up and has come down a little bit there. the three-month volatility is the blue line. it shows how people are unwilling to get ahead of this week's boj meeting. betty: you know what's -- it's not funny, but they may be about to announce one of the most important decisions for the global markets. and then they will go on vacation for two days after that and leave the markets to react. matt: not funny, but strange. poorly planned. are saying that you think
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the bank poorly planned their schedule? joe: what strikes me is that we have the bank of japan, the backup in rates that has become the story started with the japanese long-term bonds this summer. arguably, that is the more anticipated of the two central-bank events this week. >> that is absolutely the more anticipated of the two. less than 20% believe the fed will do anything this week. it will more likely be coming matt: year. matt:if i pull up this chart, you can see this is kind of a stretch. all central banks around the world in treasuries.
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a lot of this is because of shipping -- that's why a lot of days, when you see treasuries down and you think, for all intents and purposes, it is ahead scratcher. i don't know if we are being helped in this sense, but it is definitely a conundrum. i think it's because of this selling that is coming from central banks around the world. and these are being helped. because they can get to a higher -- >> it is being held in japan. is that another reason why there is so much push to do something different? it is some sort of operation twist they have talked about. at 7you can catch betty
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a.m. hong kong time for bloomberg daybreak asia. which you can always watch on bloomberg. what you needt: to know to gear up for the trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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joe: u.s. market starting strong but falling to a loss at the end of the day. i am focused on german ppi. scarlet: and there will be a lot of drama and washington.
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in front of the senate banking committee, about regulators claims his employees created 2 million unauthorized sales goals. it begins 10:00 a.m. eastern time. that is a for what
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. we are are covering all the vertical angles of the terrorism related incident that spanned three states over this past weekend. today, the man believed to be responsible for saturday's explosion in manhattan and new jersey, was taken into custody after exchanging fire with garden state please. authorities said he is a naturalized citizen who was born in afghanistan or reportedly traveled there several years ago. there is no direct evidence that links him to the islamic state, al qaeda, or other international

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