tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg September 23, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
mark: we will take you from new york to london. we will cover stories out of turkey and ireland out of the next hour. here's what we're watching today. central banks may use different tools. that is the latest investment note from ubs' global chief investment officer. he tells us where he is putting the firm's $2 trillion under management. vonnie: the ceo of the london stock exchange says jobs will be at risk if. leaves the u.k. and, it's official. ceo arnie sorenson tells us how the hotel company will integrate
starwood brands and loyalty programs. mark: we are 30 minutes away from the end of the ride a session. -- friday session. -- friday session. there you go, global macro movement. stocks falling today, petering out, stuttering and sputtering as we and the week. we had a big rally yesterday. biggest weekly gain since july. stocks lower. sterling must have sent down against the dollar today. taking you to the big movers, spain's third-biggest lender shares 3.7% lower. the company sold 585 million shares. the equivalent to a 9.9% stake
to private investors shared sold at 2.260 apiece. let's get to the spanish bond market. what a fascinating bond market it's been. yesterday we had yields on the iv year and 10 year reach intraday record lows after the fed did nothing. the event risk is out the way. look at the bond market, this is the bloomberg spanish sovereign bond index, a gauge of the entirety of the spanish bond market from september last year. i've annotated when we had the spanish election in september and in june. both of those elections had outcomes which didn't result in a government. we have seen the spanish bond market go from strength to strength. parliamentary gridlock doesn't
ensure that the bond market doesn't continue to rise. lack of a government may even be a draw for some investors has spending is kept in check with a challenge from the anti-austerity party fading. pace of growth dipped to a 20 month low, according to the latest data on manufacturing and services. that was the big piece of economic data today. the pmi down to 52.6. 90 minutes into the trading day in the u.s.. julie hyman has the latest. julie: 93.5. we are seeing stocks pull back after what has been a strong week for the u.s. stock market. on the the biggest drag major averages. i want to check on the dollar as well because it too has had an
interesting week. you can see the bloomberg dollar index is about down 2/3 of 1%. the movers we saw, the biggest movement coming in the wake of the federal reserve's commentary. today we are seeing a bit of a bounce, reversal of movement of the week, the dollars rising to the highs of the session at the moment. twitter is the big stock story we are watching today. those shares had been striking on their report from cdc it is close to potentially selling itself. offsforce shares selling today. that is one of the heavyweights in technology lower today. facebook lower after the company said it has an in waiting it's odd numbers. oracle down just a bit this morning and after that stock was removed from the select list. infrastructure as a service
portfolio, it is still early. the company will need to spend money to get it up to speed. vonnie: thanks. courtney donohoe has more from our newsroom greg courtney: congress may be going to the brink on a spending bill again. senate leaders from both parties say they have no deal on a stock cap budget to keep government in past friday. it would include money to fight zika and help storm ravaged states. democrats are opposed as there michiganp for flint, crisis.with its lead there were no reports of violence after a third night a protest over a police shooting. demonstrators called for the release of a video showing a black man shot by police. the man's family watch the video and the family's lawyer said he could not tell if the man was holding a gun as police say. crisis. in tulsa, oklahoma a white police officer charged with
manslaughter for killing and unarmed black man has surrendered to authorities. court papers say the officer reacted unreasonably in a confrontation. video shows the man walking away from the officer just before he was shot. o'neill is known for coining the brick strategy of emerging markets. he was serving as treasury minister. several weeks ago newspaper wasrts showed he disappointed with prime minister theresa may's policy towards china. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. mark: the global stock and bond rally we saw sputtering. our next guest says the debate over the efficacy of monetary stimulus may lead to the punch bowl being taken away. that costa rican marson -- market volatility.
mark, very good day and great to see you again. >> great to see you too. happy friday. vonnie: i want to talk about the coronation we've seen between stocks and bonds. they come even more positively correlated. i much more complicated does that make asset allocation? >> you are right to focus on this because it makes it much previously youto would use bonds and stocks to offset each other in portfolios. with that central-bank stimulus, of course it raise the price of all assets, and that has led some clients to move more towards cash, to be a diverse a fire the war on cash continues as well and that's why i think you've got to move to other sources, such as private equity
or alternative to give yourself a diversification and perhaps also some yield and return. mark: the big theme of this week was the fed, boj, and some might say the take away from this week support for negative rates appears to be waning. stimulus will continue. different tools will delete -- clearly be used. what does that mean for investments going forward? >> i think the message from the boj was that they are less likely to use negative rates or that they recognize that negative rates have a negative impact on the financial factor that somehow needs to be compensated, perhaps if they want to go more negative in the future, that they do it when there's a steeper yield curve. that was one of the positives
out of the message from japan, as well as the fact that they are going to keep stimulating their economy even if they choose to use other tools. it was still be fed's week and still the fed's ballgame. what the federal reserve does is still the most important news and i think what we saw is prudence used to be the fed being prepared to hike rates, perhaps early, to stem inflation. now prudence means they are foring to leave lower longer so the economy gets traction before they hike. the market responded positively to that not only because rates are lower but i think because they feel like they have a little better sense of how the fed is trying to communicate. believe they are going to do something somewhere soon, and where.
what gives you that impression? if you look at japan, now they've said, we will the 10-year at zero. that does mean that should there be fiscal policy, they're going to be able to borrow money at zero to fund that. i think one of the tactics of the central bank is to try and fortion it so it's easier government decision-makers to move towards fiscal stimulus, and certainly that's one of the tools, one of the things that many people think maybe is going forward. i think we are a little more tool will be that deployed the way that some people talk about it, particularly in the united states, where should more fiscal measures be used, the battle between whether that is
infrastructure investment or tax cuts is another element to this that will play out over time. i think the key point is that even if you believe that monetary policy measures are waning in their efficacy, more of them will be used and they may be supplemented by other means such as fiscal policy. vonnie: hyman told us a few minutes ago that he believes the market is discounting the possibility of a trump presidency to the tune of between 5% and 10% for stocks. does that seem realistic to you? >> i don't think the market is fully discounting a trump win. i would say that when you look at the polls, for many of our viewers in europe and across the world you need to remember that the real goal is the electoral college in the united states, and that's a little more difficult to poll. our base case is not a trump
win. should there be a trump win, the uncertainty of the trump policy will lead to uncertainty in the markets, and markets don't like uncertainty. we could see an initial pullback. there can be factors in areas that do better or worse depending on the president who has chosen to be president in the united states. mark: one area of the market that goes from strength to isength, during a hiccup, emerging-market assets. you've got this overweight position on a basket of currencies versus a selection of g 10 currencies. what might derail this enthusiasm for emerging-market assets? i think that there are many people who are concerned about emerging markets. for example, if mr. trump is
elected president, but i would say the core of this call lies with oil and also with what the federal reserve does. we don't see oil prices falling 35% again this year or in the next 12 months. so that is on the whole helpful for the emerging-market comp ex. re-think over a 12 month view, oil will be higher. we've seen from the federal reserve they are being more prudent, they are contemplating a world of growth being slower and then being lower for longer. that should go well for these high-yielding emerging-market current which we would pair with a basket of developed market currencies that tend to be more oil related to you would get that kind of trade-off, should oil prices fall and the emerging-market basket cells off
derivatives. they say executives are preparing plans to deal with the fallout including potential job cuts. earlier today the chief executive described the risk of london job cuts. askedhink in the past i us that if you look at the real what thishich is business supports, this is about helping banks relieve their balance sheets from a lot of exposure so they can deploy capital in the real economy. conservatively that at very minimum 100,000 jobs in risk management, compliance, middle office, back office, support functions. not just in london, up and down the country. clearly they could be at risk. the point is there are very,
very few financial centers around the world that could accommodate such a global business. the notion of separating for example the clearing of euro , u.s.nated interest rates dollar interest rates, does not make sense and probably cannot be achieved. rolet, yes, you could but actually what will happen is we will lose the lot. remember what happens when the contract moved overnight. these things happen fast and they can take a whole lot with them. moving euroout clearing. wouldn't it be logical if that's the political directn for everything else to go with it? >> that's a possibility. separate euro from dollars. but is it possible the whole thing could move?
of course. the london stock exchange operates successful clearing business and is currently licensed to operate in what i the onlyould be logical alternative to london, if they came to pass. and that is the new york market trade this is a very complex debate. as we've heard already from clients, the physical possibility of moving as well as the economic consequences, a rather complex this is in fact a very complex industry and business, and simple pronouncements on the basis of changing political realities carry some weight. the situation on the ground is in fact for more complex. mark: the stock exchange group chief executive there with bloomberg's guy johnson. vonnie: still ahead, this week's
vonnie: live from london and new york, i'm money went. mark: i am mark parker. nine minutes left in the friday session. the rally fueled by this week's boj decisions things today. the dollar is rebounding, climbing. joining us to discuss the week's central-bank action and its impact on the markets, our strategist. it is up there with work, the functions we love the most. if any chart would tell a story, the first chart you have chosen
is the one. >> the significance is the fact that yet again, which they seem to do every three months, the dots have migrated lower. that is the big take away. they have set up december. the market has been moving in that direction anyhow. is that the away economic projections have moved lower with it and moving closer to where market expectations are. mark: one in december, two next year, three after. is it even worth discussing the year after? mark: forecasting isn't easy. >> it's a far cry from where we were last year. after they hiked rates in december they would -- they said there would be 4 rate hikes. it's a very difficult task. the dots are may be losing some
of their luster. the fact that they've been revised down again was the key take away from this week on the fomc. vonnie: it is the sixth consecutive friday. it doesn't seem that the federal reserve made that much difference in terms of dollar output, at least. >> dollar yen is a tricky one. the boj is very much handcuffed by the fact that with every currency, you have two different narratives. the japanese have continued down easier policy but with the fed old and that dovish tilt i described, dollar yen has faced downward pressure. we have three weeks in a row that the dollar has fallen against the yen. yen strength is something the boj has been fighting for a long time. it intensified this year.
spit all the using they've done, the yen has strengthened considerably. vonnie: is the market pricing in and of a rate hike in the u.s. by december? now it's only 56%. >> i would say that has been edging in the right direction, if you are the fed and you want to raise rates in december. wayhe date of plays out the the fed thinks it should, it's very easy to imagine that those probabilities arise to the level the fed is comfortable with. way the fed thinks it should, it's very easy tothat is probably 70e of the meeting. mark: controlling the yield curve, that was the take away from the boj, wasn't it? which leads us to your third chart. the difference in yield between the two year and ten year, and the idea is, keep the 10 year around zero. as you can see from this chart which goes back a year, the opposite happened. >> and that whole post brexit
period, you can see we've been edging a little bit steeper. wake of the actual decision, we've seen the curve flat in a bit. it's too soon to tell if this policy is going to be effective, but it does show it will be a challenge much the same way that yen strengthens. mark: is it the end of capitalism? you could easily make a case for it. this is very experimental. the boj is being creative here, i think. mark: thanks for joining us. bloomberg's richard jones. the closing seconds away. stay with us. ♪
every industry group falling today. the fed induced rally petered out somewhat great look at this chart, let this chart, showing how cheap u.k. stocks are after reaching record values relative to the european peers in the aftermath of the brexit vote. stocks are starting to look cheap again and the u.k. with a valuation of 15.6 times estimated earnings. this is the ftse all share index. 23, analysts have increase their profit growth estimates by 9.4%. here are more stats to blow you away, british shares have become the years best performers among major markets in europe. all share index is up by 9%. big decline are today, -- d
ecliner today. the danish drugmaker after the close on thursday said its missed its therapy main and secondary goals in a final stage study. the study found that patients on its drug did no better on an alzheimer's disease test than those on a placebo. was widely considered, it says, to be one of its most promising late stage products, and accounted for 30 danish --na of its evaluation valuation. want to finish the week with the gold heading for its biggest weekly gain since july post the fed decision to do nothing, headed for the third quarterly gain and what will be the longest rally since 2011.
gol assetsd and etf's have expended every month this year apart from april. is up by 26%. the bloomberg commodity index, a gauge of 23 commodities up by 8%. gold is a winner, vonnie. the dollar index relatively unchanged right now but we are down about 1/2 point since before the yellen press conference. that is an interesting dynamic to watch. you are not seeing it when it comes to the yen. bank of japan is seeing that the yen is weakening as well after that decision there. the u.s. 10 year yield back down to 1.62%. you cannot get those yields to move higher. the japan government 10 year points,inus five basis
thursday and wednesday. we wanted to see what this meant, so we reached out to a few technical analysts. he told us he thinks the dow and s&p 500 will follow. he's very impressed by the broad-based strength of this rally and katie stockton, the chief technical officer at btig, she seems to agree. she thinks the s&p 500 will put in new all-time highs, and tech is outperforming and that is an offense of signal. -- offensive signal. to see be interesting whether we have consolidation of those big moves. facebook the biggest drag on the nasdaq today after the company did say it pulled advertisers, that it gave inflated video metrix. -- metrics. means,what this bloomberg intelligence analyst did tell our team earlier, it is
an embarrassment to the company, but he does not think it's going to have a long-term significant impact on the financials. certainly down today but perhaps not that long-term impact that investors fear could be ahead. vonnie: thank you. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. eporter: u.s. secretary of state john kerry has abandoned efforts to salvage a cease-fire in syria. kerry told reporters in new york it was pointless to move ahead without a major gesture from russia. the u.s. accuses russia of failing to use its influence over president assad. assad blame the u.s. for the trip -- truce's collapse. in egypt, bodies were pulled off the water -- out of the water off the coast. dozens more are feared dead. egypt has been a traditional route for people seeking to reach europe by sea.
the president of turkey blasting the u.s. for refusing to extradite an exiled cleric he blames for fomenting a failed coup. he he dismissed arguments about the extradition request must work its way through the judicial system. nato.are together in let us try him. the court is going to decide. i'm sorry, but we can't wait for these kinds of decisions from these kinds of courts. the crime was committed in turkey. let us make the decision. erdogan is unhappy that the u.s. is using kurdish fighters to battle islamic state. vladimir putin lamenting the collapse of the soviet union and said it wasn't inevitable. the russian president says instead of collapsing 1/4
century ago, the soviet union could have made a transformation. he met with political leaders after his united russia party swept to its biggest ever victory in parliamentary election. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. the fed holding steady, u.s. elections coming up, brexit negotiations. how should an investment position -- joining us, guy stern, head of macro investing for standard life, which has about $350 billion in assets under management. what was the key take away of this week, and what does that take away lead us when it comes to our investment thinking going forward? the key take away is probably how little power the financial and monetary authorities have in
adjusting our expectations for interest rates right now. you see a lot of fluctuation in the marketplace. i think you have to look further out to think about what the real willmental factors that influence the longer-term interest rates will be, and look past the small fluctuations you get on a day-to-day basis. mark: alaska and virgin are said to delay their deal to give the u.s. more review time. they are delaying their deal to get that deal more u.s. review time. as soon as we get more details on that, he will come back to it. you are saying expect this yields grabbed to continue. where can we expect the search for yield takeup without being too open to risk? >> a i don't know if there will be a continuous grab for yield. trying to earn capital returns is difficult in an inflated
capital market. we know bonds are very expensive right now. we know equities appeared to be very expensive. it's hard to look at investing without taking a longer-term view and thinking about where can i earn capital returns and carry on my portfolio. but you're not going to do that trying to predict where markets go on a day-to-day basis. we think there are real trends that are in play, including the better economy as we would see it. vonnie: what do you do? where do you put any dry powder you might have kept? you have to look at asset classes not in isolation but maybe how they might move relative to each other. part of our ecosystem think about how markets might relate to each other and how differences in economies will formulate over the coming years. we see the u.s. economy continuing to benefit from the policies that have been put in place.
but we think it's going to be harder for southeast asia and australia to accelerate their economy. their strategies we can put in place that allow us to benefit from the re-acceleration in the u.s. and benefit from the difficulties that australia will be facing as they are associated with china and the chinese slowdown. we think that is a better way to position your portfolio. it will mean a longer storm -- .onger-term stable portfolio vonnie: how do you do it? >> that's the interesting part. if you have a broader investment , if you can use them in combination, you have a lot more tools in your toolkit. aere are ways to benefit from developing economy -- economy by investing in currencies. there are ways to benefit from a slowing economy by investing in
sovereign debt. benefit are ways to from the differences in valuation and stocks by buying one sector and selling another, these are ways you can position yourself without taking extraordinary risk and still make money in the financial markets that are really directionless right now. mark: which assets have these protective capabilities, in light of the big election, whether it's the u.s., germany, france, or holland? think there are particular asset classes that have great protective character. can buy duration-based assets like sovereign debt, and they would be protected in the event that i get a tremendous drawdown inequity markets. i think that's a position -- i don't think buying duration, sovereign debt in the u.s. or
u.k. or germany -- number one, i don't think it will be rewarding generally and number two, i don't think that will protect you in the case of a drawdown. you have to be a little bit more creative. a good example we have in our portfolio is thinking about large-cap stocks versus small cap. large caps have more predicable earning characteristics and they probably won't disappoint you. not that earnings are growing very much, but between a stable earnings outlook and stable dividends, it's a great place to invest. you are selling away high beta, you've got a protective strategy and your portfolio that is geared towards that stabily and you c harvest dividends and be exposed to equities in general. mark: thanks for talking to us, great to chat. just want to come back to that alaska-virgin deal. alaska air group and virgin delaya have agreed to
their merger plans to give the u.s. justice department more time to review their $2.6 billion deal. this is according to a person familiar with the matter, antitrust officials can now take several more weeks beyond the airline's original september 30 closing date to complete their review. this is according to the person we spoke to, the extension comes after the airline's met with the antitrust division chief, and other officials to address the government concerns, the combination could hurt competition. we will continue to bring you updates on that story. this is bloomberg. ♪
it's official, marriott has completed its 14 billion dollars purchase of starwood hotels & resorts trade with the deal marriott is now the largest hotel operator in the world, overseeing 5700 properties. for more, let's turn to my colleague, david gora. david: i'm here with the president and ceo of marriott international. congratulations on the deal. the headline is this ratio. i imagine that exclusive all the regulatory stuff you had to deal with, this was the most delicate part of the deal. >> from the moment we announce the deal in november, members have been saying what does it mean for me. essentially the day the transaction was announced. the conversation and social media platforms has been intense. we have listened to it. we haven't always been part of it. but we wanted to move quickly when we close. the conversion ratio is an
important piece of that. what we are doing from the moment we close is we are allowing people to link accounts to get the benefit of their leave status in both programs and to be able to transfer points. david: do you have a timeline for the merger? >> we don't really. we have credit card companies that have relationships with each of the two programs, timeshare companies that have relationships, and lots of airlines around the world that have relationships. all those relationships are important and we want to get it right. david: what did you admire about starwood points? >> starwood managed through spg, they have about the same level of rewards contribution as we did with a bigger portfolio. in many respects a bigger portfolio makes for a stronger portfolio. we knew we were doing something
right to get this resonance with the regular traveler. we think w was a big part of that, weston and saint regis were probably a big part of that . it was also partially the way they restructured their program. how do we create an even bigger loyalty program with that much more stickiness with our customer? david: you oversee 30 brands. how long will that continue? >> we will see what happens over time to rate the greater the number of brands, the more choice for our customers. that, each one of these hotels is owned by a real estate partner of ours. they have invested in their hotel with a particular brand. compete, theyeady already exist. we will try and draw distinctions between the brands, product and service, but hopefully we can grow them all. david: there are so many computers who -- consumers who
are brand agnostic in the travel space. programnk the loyalty is the principal tool for that. we go to market with our loyalty program and particularly for folks who travel regularly, they know it's in their interest to belong to a program because they get treated well, they get points, so they can have free vacations. wi-fisingly it seems free and keyless entry to their room, and now rates lower than the rates that came to us through a different channel. we have to make sure to earn that loyalty, we are delivering value to them great it's not a soft and squishy idea where people will say, i'm loyal to you. if we can deliver that, people will say, it's in my interest to do that durin. david: at this point, how is that push for direct booking going for you? into ourgn-ups program, even before the
transaction closing today, have been up significantly over last year, which is a sign that customers understand it is in their interest to be a part of these programs. with the starwood transaction closing today, there is much more that is of interest to folks. they can say it -- any of countries i go to, i want luxury or lifestyle or economy or a meetings hotel, i know i have a place to stay in that portfolio and i can concentrate my points there. i think that growth will continue. people whot of follow this industry say that the titans will be google and facebook. when you look at market dynamics, do you see that as well? >> google and facebook are fabulous companies, with huge communities of users, and in many respects they are simply making a choice of where they decide to use the power that they have, and they can use that power if they want it to be more directly involved in the reservations process for hotels. expedia and priceline are two
the customers of google, and they will have to figure that out, right? in some respects we are impacted by that and we have to watch it very carefully. tay and no one can take it away from us. we are in a stronger position. the loyalty pieces or principal tools for making sure we have an independent relationship with our customers. david: you had a front row seat to chinese interest in the hotel space through this deal. do you expect that will continue even the size of the middle class, or has this chastens the chinese travel market? >> i don't think it has chastened the chinese at all. you have a number of dynamics propping outbound investment by chinese companies. you think about on bank, who competed with us in march to acquire starwood. we prevailed in that, but on bank has since closed on the .trategic hotels group
and includes a ritz-carlton near san francisco, half moon bay, near around l.a. they will be interested in doing more investment in the united states. part of that is about currencies and making sure they are investing in global portfolio approach. part of that is chinese travel. chinese travel to the u.s. is up 20% year-over-year five or six rows in a year, and the numbers are starting to mount out. that will be the case for many years to come. david: you said it was too early to tell what the fallout might be. what are you seeing? >> so far it has been ok. you have a european dynamic skill around security issues and immigration issues which is important. within the u.k., you see a weakening pound which makes the u.k. cheaper for many travelers around the world trade inbound travel has increased. in the same respect, u.k.
vonnie: live from london and new york, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: i'm mark burger. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's take a look at the biggest business news in the stories right now. the finance minister says the u.k. unlikely to get everything at once from brexit. michael noonan spoke to bloomberg television today. >> the europeans are looking at it and saying that of course we
would like the u.k. to have full access to the single market, but they can't have the advantages of the european union without carrying out the obligations. ireland is seen as vulnerable to so-called brexit shot. many irish companies do the bulk of their international business in the u.k. that's the latest bloomberg business flash. vonnie? ourie: tune in monday for special coverage of the first presidential debate. bloomberg politics will be on the ground with special coverage for and after the event. we are teaming up with twitter as the exclusive streaming partner for the debate. tune in. ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, covering stories in san francisco and washington and beijing this hour. here's what we are watching. rebounded stocks and bonds sputtering after a rally driven by global central banks. markets remain on track to end the week higher. we are seeing a big stock move in one particular company, twitter shares surging the most in more than two years on reports the company may soon get a takeover offer. bloomberg's editor-in-chief caught up with the turkish president. he said he is not worried if the country's debt gets downgraded to junk. we are halfway through the u.s. trading day and check in on what you as a global rally that has kind of lost steam. julie hyman has more. julie: do we have breaking news as well? matt: