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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  September 26, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EDT

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go to drops. shares in germany's bank slumps to a biggest low after worries -- we areting legal live in algiers. the debate as trump looks to apply new discipline. we wonder why this tv debate really matters. ♪ francine: welcome to the pulse, live from bloomberg's european headquarters. we are getting some breaking news out of me for. this is for the month of september, coming out at 109.5.
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this is better than expected. this is two months after brexit. it does call the ones that were concerned. german september e for conference at 110.5. there is not that much of an impact on euro as we speak overall over concerned about the banks. we'll get to that in a second. we do have a great show lined up. we talked european reforms and greetham.h trevor this is the market overall. it has a lot to do with what treasuries are doing. i also put in lira. this is the turkish lira. --ses among emerging market 20 on the markets. let's get to the bloomberg first
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word news with nejra cehic. nejra: deutsche bank shares have dropped to a record low amid concerns that the lenders capital buffers will be undermined by mounting legal charges, including a supplement tied to the sale of u.s. securities. if $14 million build -- bill is more than twice the amount the bank is set to buy for litigation. oil has edged higher as saudi arabia has offered to cut out a door to a future opec deal. doesn't expect an agreement this week when members meet in algiers. why saudi arabia and a ron did not meet -- and iran did not meet an agreement -- that is according to people familiar with the negotiations. saudi arabia's central bank has set up efforts to support lenders in the arab world's biggest economy. the saudi arabian monetary agency says it will get back $.3
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billion in time deposits. producing seven-day and 28 date repurchasing agreements as a part of its supportive monetary policy. mario draghi will visit brussels and berlin this week with the message that the government must act. the ecb president will testify today and address a session of -- too slowkers on to implement structural reforms. the turkish lira has fallen to a seven-week low after moody's cut the country's credit rating to junk. andited rising risks external financing needs. weakening credit fundamentals for its decision. in the wakee by s&p of july's failed coup. hillary clinton and donald trump will face each other in the first of three televised u.s.
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presidential debates later. the event will be held at hofstra university and will be moderated by lester holt. bloomberg has full coverage on that u.s. presidential debate. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you. after a big week for global central banks, we start with comments from the boj speaking this morning. governor grow to says easing options desk governor kuroda says easing options include further negative rates. cooks the policy tool will be andher negative cuts lowering the target level of the long-term interest rate. with regard to possible options for additional easing, the main policy tool will be further cuts in the negative short-term policy interest rate and lowering the target level of the long-term interest rate. expanding asset purchases, the quality dimension also continues
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to be an option. francine: let's welcome trevor greetham. trevor, great to have you as always good how much do you look at fundamentals in the market? how much you look at simple central-bank -- what the fed does? trevor: we look at fundamentals first of all. we got above trend global growth, unemployment rates are dropping, low inflation. environmentpportive for stock markets which is why stocks have risen. analysts have been saying it is built on money. fundamentally, it is the right time to be done well. francine: how do they make money back up if you look at earnings, a lot of them beat but it is margins being squeezed. at some point, they will not be up to cut costs. trevor: growth is patchy. trend growth has declined. -- rate growth creates
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capital spending has dropped and everything has slowed down. i would not say that what is happening in terms of stock prices is driven by money renting. central banks -- money printing. central banks have reached an interesting point. it has reduced threat levels globally. keeping real interest rates low. really dodgy territory when you get into negative interest rates. saving rates slightly below inflation, they don't know what you're up to. it transfers very well from savers to borrowers. francine: you can see what it does to the banks, it hurts them. they are trying to work around that and implementing new things in japan. deutsche bank, slumping to fresh record lows on capital concerns. how much of this is symptomatic of what angst are going through? -- what banks are going through
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echo -- going through? trevor: put it into context. -- it is something going on that is quite major. generally, we are lacking nominal growth in europe. it is a worldwide phenomenon. it is time for governments to start spending more money. if you increase government spending, rather than running through various forms of austerity, central banks can you the interest rate low, ease the burden of debt. abe in japan has a frame where he can increase spending if he needs to. francine: draghi is saying we should all start -- all should stop talking. there is so much focus, a global pivot to fiscal spending.
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if you listen to what job he has been saying, -- trevor: and what bernanke was saying years ago in the u.s. you need to get a bit more spending going on. mindsetrnments are in a to reduce that you have to reduce spending. with cooperation from central banks, their other painful ways of doing it. that is what the world did after world war ii. they reduced nominal growth. that is where we are going to start to see policies move. francine: why has it taken us eight years? there is less a systematic problems, but we are still in a similar situation. we have this cheap money out there. what does this mean for your world? equities and stocks? trevor: sustainable growth is what matters. if you've got a balance policy
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-- balance policy, growth would be more sustainable and you would have more capital spending. better earnings growth in the future. it has taken a long time because people get set in their ways and if there is silver lining from the brexit vote, an opportunity to reset fiscal policy in the u.k. we're seeing policy reset in japan. you've got this pronominal growth in japan which the rest of the world will start to follow. francine: what is your take on treasuries? this is basically the amount of foreign central-bank treasuries held in the custody of the fed. decline.a clear the trend is downward. foreign central banks have become another word for investors and treasuries. trevor: what is going on in terms of the dollar, we are starting the year expecting the one.t -- we might get
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it might be zero. if you look at the business surveys in the u.s., they are not cooling-off. you've got a presidential election. it is possible the fed doesn't raise rates in december. markets is the biggest winner from the brexit, because the fed was on hold because of brexit. aancine: wouldn't that be credibility problem if the fed doesn't like this year? fed -- whatink the is going on is about financial repression. central banks are making all sorts of excuses because they want to keep real interest rates low. francine: but why? trevor: reducing leverage through inflation. any excuse -- brexit, weisberg that excuse -- why is brexit the excuse? francine: the premise.
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let's say brexit played a different. there was a bigger follow like we saw that friday, it would've been a good excuse for the fed. you can't fault them for that. trevor: the point about brexit, it has turned out to be a headwind for the u.k. and policy will step in to take up some of that strain. francine: what you think janet yellen is fundamentally trying to keep rates where they are? trevor: a strategy to keep interest rates low. difficulty is coming up with a credible sounding framework. look at the u.s. unemployment, it is very low but ways growth is not strong. inflation is not shown up. what would make things difficult is a massive surge in growth for china because monday prices would be up -- because commodity prices would be a.
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year the new big bit this -- china taking up a bit this year. it is an opportunity for governments to step in. francine: trevor greetham, thank you for stepping in right now. plenty coming up including live from liverpool. corbyn's victory leaves very little room for uk's party. low expectations. saudi arabia opens the door and out years. trump it isus expected to be one of the widely viewed events ever. they goes head-to-head in their first debate. we're live in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: this is the pulse and francine lacqua. let's get to bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic nejra: german chemical america has agreed -- german chemical maker has agreed to buy -- in cash. it said it would pay $33.50 per share for cancer a. that is a 90% premium on his friday close. it would add to its flame retardants. three brexit vote has quarters of ceos saying there would move their operations to outside the u.k.
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at the same time, 69% said they are confident britain's economy will continue to grow over the next year. itshe investment has closed singapore trading desk as a part of the global sake up -- global shakeup. one of the people said the 11 billion hedge fund will maintain stock in the city state focusing on quantitive research. the move comes after two dismissed part of its workforce. francine: european markets lower this morning. let's head to the bloomberg with mark barton for your asset check. mark: after the biggest weekly gain since mid-july, this selloff we are seeing today. every single industry group on the stoxx 600 is falling. led by deutsche bank. these are the shares since 2007, since the highs of 2007 shares today reaching a new record low, down by 90%.
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once upon a time, back in may 2007, shares were at to look -- at $102 and lenders capital buffers will be undermined by -- that is according to focused magazine -- focus magazine. today gooding biggest gainer on the stoxx 600, shares up by 8%. the big strides since 2012. adds to a record $193 billion in global chemical deals by buyers proposed -- led byf monsanto beyers proposed purchase of monsanto. all of these currencies are rising against solyndra after moody's cut its desperate
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against the lira after moody cut its credit rating. -- turkishowth assets are falling the most since the attended coup in july. we got stocks falling, bonds falling. with the rating cut, the difficulties turkey faces is in attracting the foreign capital need to cover its current account deficit. turkish assets falling today. that is the picture that tells the best story. every currency today rising against the lira. .rancine: mark barton here in the u.k., jeremy corbyn retains leadership of the party. he boosted his mandate from grassroot members. the results were announced at the start of the conference in liverpool back on saturday. addresses the council today.
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great to have you on the program could what are we expecting to hear from him? much.thank you so he is going to speak much later. they shadow chancellor will be moreng about interventionist than you yearsve heard in previous . he is going to be saying that the winds of globalization have changed blown against the free market in favor of something more interventionist. , theis what jeremy corbyn leader of the labour party wants to see. he says good business does not mean no government. they are really setting the stage, something a lot more interventionist here. this comes after the exit vote when theresa may have been talking more about intervention. industrial strategy. we will see what we hear today from the labor camp.
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statement later on this year. francine? francine: why does this conference matter to an international audience? .nna: that is a good question this is a party that is not in government here in the u.k. why this matters, why the leadership campaign matters it is about settling -- a battle for the less of british policy. to what extent has that been settled? all that matters if you're interested in how long theresa may and our government have a free hand to do what they want and government. a free hand to do what they want and government. -- they want in government. respond to that brexit conversation? i could up with jeremy corbyn last week. he says the labour party reserves the right to stand in the way of the triggering of article 50. i did i get the feeling that he
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was urgent -- that there was something they were urgent to do. francine: great work. anna edwards. it is the final trading week -- the bank of japan hits a new record low. we talk asset allocation next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: this is "the pulse." welcome back.
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trevor, we talked about central banks, what is going on in the world. how a company gives a decent margin. what is your favorite emerging market companies? trevor: emerging markets is a on-site class. really because you've got a window between now and december when the fed is not raising interest rates. the macro data has weakened. china is doing. -- china is doing all right. francine: it may make you worry because you're not hearing about it. trevor: the big picture has not changed. a lot of debt to navigate through. the economy is been stimulated by the biggest expansion in yuan since the lumen fair test since the lehman failure. -- since the lehman failure. you've got a relatively strong chinese economy for a change. you got relatively benign u.s.
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monetary policy. that is good for emerging markets. what hurt them was -- what hurt them was the slowdown in china and a tightening fed. but -- francine: what is your favorite? you are going for the holy emerging-market. wholeh it -- trevor: the as a class. -- dollar funding. those are the two things that attract me to the broad asset class. francine: are expecting anything else years on oil? trevor: i don't have a base scenario. francine: i have a lot of people saying that. trevor: the whole supply commodities is very open. a lot of people are starting to say oil is starting to draw down inventories. there's lots of debate. we'll have to wait and see what happens.
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from the macro point of view, commodities are looking fairly interesting. i don't like gills because if you look at the guilt market, it is pricing in base rates of 1% or lower. we know that is because of the financial repression. it won't last 30 years. having the value is actually poor. francine: are you worried about brexit? trevor: will we don't know is what how big the offset stimulus will be. -- what we don't know is how big the offset stimulus will be. francine: trevor, thank you. up next, saudi arabia opens the door to deals but speculators are betting against an algiers agreement. this is bloomberg. will go through the main movers. go talk luxury later on. ferragamo. another interesting angle is what we have been talking about
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brexit. we have a poll saying most u.k. ceos more than 75% say they would consider moving after brexit. what does that mean for your portfolio? this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome to "the pulse." live from bloomberg's european headquarters. let's get to the bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. nejra: francine, deutsche bank shares have dropped to a record low. amid concerns that the lenders capital buffers will be undermined by mounting legal troubles. including a settlement tied to the sale of u.s. security. bill to settle a u.s. probe into residential mortgage-backed security is more than twice the amount the bank set aside for litigation. mario draghi will hit brussels this week with a message that
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governments must act to bolster the economy. the ecb backed resident will testify today and is just a closed-door session of german lawmakers on wednesday. one of the main concerns is governments are being too slow to implement structural reform. china's central bank has drained the most funds from the financial system in six months. the pbo see old a net $37 billion from the financial system from a reverse purchase agreement. it is keeping a tight rein on cash supply as part of efforts to curb -- arnold palmer has died at the age of 87. generally regarded as one of the worlds just one of the games -- one of the games legislators. with a legion of fans known as arnie's army, he was responsible for bringing golf into the mainstream in the 1960's.
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global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: saudi arabia, the world's biggest exporter has offered to cut its output to january levels. heap. to host a meeting of of opec producers later this week. saudi is a very important member. a saudi is ready to do the maximum for the success. it is ready for any eventuality, to freeze, to lower production to make it a success. francine: list -- let's speak to caroline connan. opec, will it agree on action? it seems like the odds are more in favor than that time
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and a half. iran did not want to join the deal. iran is in town. they are attending this opec meeting. we also heard a few minutes ago from the iraqi oil minister saying he is confident the decision could be reached this week in algiers. the question of course is at what level of production? opec has been doing the strategy for the past two years of old pumping. -- of oil pumping. saudi wants to increase their production. the question is whether we will have some kind of freeze? or some kind of production cap with some exemptions for iran, iraq and other countries like libya and nigeria who have recently suffered from
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production reduction because of local militant attacks. francine: i am looking at a be --and there seems to if we do get some kind of a court, what would look like? -- what would it look like? caroline: at the moment, the question is whether iran and iraq will get involved and at what level? at the moment, the production from iraq is almost back at three sanctions level. iran is pumping 3.6 million barrels a day. the production in iraq is 4.6 million barrels a day. the iraqi oil minister was not clear on what kind of level iraq once for this week. the odds are slightly more in favor and in fact, if we look at the past decision, it seems that
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algeria is the land of surprise, because the last two big production cuts that we so from opec in 2004 and 2008 were decided right here in algeria. francine: caroline, think it's a much. let's switch votes -- less which focus. -- let us switch focus. guesthave got a great this morning to discuss the future of europe, brexit and all things luxury. -- also with us, trevor greetham from royal london asset management. thank you for joining us. overall, this is one of the questions we were asking of trevor, there's always central-bank policy, the brexit, which meets central banks are not doing much in terms of
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normalizing the interest rate. we have a lot of ceos who are also worried in terms of spending cash they said on it was a difficult when you were ceo -- what was the mood like? when you look at the world economy, they were uncertainties. failing -- have been sailing on top of the waters. it was difficult to decide where to invest. how the consumers were going to not going to another one. most of the industry, slowing down, the growth and focusing on the buffet ability. probably in the next couple of months, you see more movement. you feel like a lot of things that happened -- we still have headwinds, waiting italian and french elections. american elections. i think it probably -- people
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have gotten used to feeling this kind of optimism. francine: how much time do you look at things like this? in trevor's world, this is what he sees dan out because he has to invest money. moodceo, is it a general to hold back expansion or are there specific matrix? michele: eluded the jog the of the timeframe. you look at the geography of the timeframe. and then you try to go where the travelers are going. if they go to korea, thailand, you may be prepared. if they go to iceland, russia, you may not have a network. the point is trying to understand even inside europe, all of a sudden people are shopping in london. london is growing double digits. even more the price is very
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undeveloped. how do you follow your consumer? it is important to focus on what is going on and try to be a little more conservative in expanding. francine: trevor, one of the things i ask of ceos, how do you deal with politics? , do youa big debate have to take a bet on it? or do you ignore it? trevor: it is a combination. you get political shocks which sometime -- sometimes are not well organized by the calendar -- which are not organized by the calendar. sometimes we have a shock and it happens when you wake up. you have to respond to it. almost with a fresh mind. what would i do given the situation? other than that, sometimes you will have positions which would
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benefit from one political regime than another. it tends to be at a more individual company level where the different clinical regimes and their interventions have an impact. with overall market level, markets tend to be responding to the capacity in the economy, growth, policy. francine: how surprised are you with the way that people are feeling? politics in france? brexit? the place we should be eight years from the crisis. michele: the big change in the consumer. people out to [indiscernible] who are reacting in a different way to politics and shopping. probably the mood is becoming more important than politics.
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[indiscernible] we will have to adopt to this reality in terms of politics again. you may be more or less exposed to a certain jogger fee. -- certain geography. if you have a balanced dissipation, very often you'll be up to pick up what you lose into another region, because a number of potential shoppers are still growing. still a hundred million people, but the impact of of a big political event like opec, the italian referendum is not measurable. francine: do you worry about the referendum? you are italian. it is unclear whether the referendum. -- if the referendum doesn't go
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through, what becomes of it? michele: there are a lot of similarities. we learned a lot because "the pulse." because they a lot still have an advantage but nobody knows what is going to happen. another point is information is vital. people in the u.k. and in italy don't know what they are voting for. [indiscernible] they don't know about the consequences. i hope italy will learn from the british experience so people wake up one day and understood what they ordered the day before pete i hope italian people will be able to understand exactly what they are voting for. definitely stability is a big value, not only for finance in the business.
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it is important. it will be important in an unstable europe. the vote must reflect this kind of continuity. -- after a nonpositive referendum result. we may face a similar situation in italy. i hope people will understand and vote. francine: what is your take overall, trevor echo -- trevor? -- being able to stay on with a no vote than cameron did, because a no vote would be status quo. you can manage that. cameron cannot manage brexit because of his position. francine: trevor greetham, thank you so much. michele norsa, he stays with us. we will talk a little more about where he travels and spence.
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where live in new york and ahead of the first of three residents of debates. -- we are live in new york ahead of the first of three presidential debates. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: i am francine lacqua here in london. let's get to bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic. nejra: the bank says it would pay $33.50 per share for chemtura, a 19% premium for friday's close the deal will allow them to expand its lubricant additives. the brexit vote has left more than record of ceos and saying they would consider moving the headquarters or operations outside of the u.k. according to a survey of 100 business leaders. 69% say theyime, are confident britain's economy will continue to grow over the next year. as partvestment has -- of a global shakeup according to people familiar. they said the $11 billion hedge start in thentain city state focusing on quantitative research. the move came after tudor
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dismissed part of its workforce last month. francine: let's return to our special guest, forehead of one of the world's largest luxury .rands in 2016, it is bent of the luxury market. -- it has been tough for the luxury market. i can luxury weather the storm. for answers, let's welcome back michele norsa. boards. a number of great to have you here on the pulse. you are talking about how luxury has changed. they want to experience. you are all on different boards. what is going best, the hotel groups that can attract new clients? all of the industries are subject to certain kind of
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threats. clients from the one destination to another is not factoring all of the -- brussels and they make it to sprain. they will travel to northern .urope or london this is unpredictable. when you look at the bookings there,a week or show up the young consumers will change their plans in a very short time. the price of airplanes -- francine: based on what? michele: you can change your tickets and the prices keep changing so destinations -- the price will go down so you can get the better ticketing at the paris. -- people stopped traveling to japan and came to london. sometimes it is the mood.
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milan got more tourists this year because it became a tourist center. francine: how do you measure this? you're are good at seeing how millennials work? i am not a millennial and i'm addicted to this. people -- e young francine: they are on instagram. michele: how they meet, what they will decide to do. the experience is more important than shopping or the staff, hotel. this is something where we would like to learn more. like to give a kind of surface that is not just a luxury but is more personal. the millennials really want something special every time. the lap of luxury industry does not -- to where they are going.
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you must try to find something right and give a kind of something they are kind of expecting from you. francine: we saw some disappointing results from rish month hermes is a because analysts are expecting too much of them? hermes. is it because analysts aren't spec and much of them? trevor: [indiscernible] they will go also lower to the middle. watch as it becomes a target. it is going to take some time but it is going to take some exceptional able tooes it nobody is
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project, not even the next nine months. they are probably the more reliable and more unique. they're producing in a certain way, the opposite of see now and by now. francine: was the most difficult thing for a ceo, in terms of luxury or hotels? d have to ignore the macroeconomics? michele: -- do you have to ignore the macroeconomics? michele: i have been working with family companies so the challenge is having a family of shareholders united and supportive. going in the same direction in the same direction. this is fundamental. [indiscernible] all of these companies.
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the other challenge is to answer to the market, what you are doing. the mood when we decided we are going more on profitability than on growth. you had to convince your shareholders, the analysts and investors and they have to understand. the point is to deliver. there is no alternative. you can do very visible things, communicate well. francine: michele, thank you so much for your insight. up next, clinton versus trump, the debate they can be bigger than the super bowl. we go live to new york. ♪
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francine: to the u.s. where hillary clinton and donald trump go head-to-head in the first of three debates. michael mckee joins us from new york. will be see disciplined donald? -- will we see disciplined donald? michael: the republican primary debates by being rude and talking little about fact. that is not going to be the case tonight. in those debates he and multiple partners. tonight, it is just him and hillary clinton are 90 minutes. one presumes he is going to get a lot of screen time and answer
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specific questions. hillary clinton will try to go to him -- will try to go to him into a mistake. the kind of thing that voters will remember. they do agree that if there is any change after a debate it comes when there is a memorable line, perhaps something like al gore sighing in the 2000 debates . somebody like richard nixon sweating and uncomfortable and the 1960 debate. it is going to be an interesting debate. maybe 100 million people watching, super bowl kind of audience. francine: that is amazing. 2:00 a.m., london time. it is a mess but we've got to watch it. michael mckee through surveillance. when you up-to-date with fed watch and donald trump watch. don't miss the coverage of the bloomberg -- of the presidential debate. stay with us, surveillance is up
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next. we kick off the conversation with andreas utermann. the turkish lira got downgraded. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: deutsche drops. she in germany's biggest bank slumps to a record low after worries of mounting legal charges. fizzing oil. saudi arabia could be -- could act. we are live in algiers. we asked why this tv debate really matters. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am francine lacqua in london. tom keene in new york. and new poll, trump and clinton at 46% each. tom: a number of poles of t


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