tv Bloomberg Go Bloomberg September 28, 2016 7:00am-10:01am EDT
ceo roles out. >> forfeits. the wells fargo ceo will forfeit stock and salary as a result of that scandal involving bogus accounts. >> saudi arabia may compromise on iran >>. i'm jonathan ferro alongside david westin and alix steel. working in overdrive. we have had headline after headline this morning about deutsche bank. >> we keep talking about the fact that it is deutsche bank specific and that it is deutsche bank debt. it is a deutsche bank story. >> despite all of this, deutsche
bank rallied. coming off record lows from the equity come this story has legs. this withill follow the former philadelphia fed president coming up in just moments. later, the ceo of one of the largest u.s. automakers, ford, will be joining us. a lot to look forward to. jon, we are seeing a little bit rally. -- of a relief that has been the story over the last couple days. deutsche bank up on the session. similar story on the ftse. the fx market, not much price action. the opec jawbone in overdrive. that story has legs. the commodity market is a little bit stronger. brent up by 2.4%.
almost streaking back to a $47 handle. two-year yields in germany, all-time low yield. today, in a secondary market, worth 1.5 basis points. yesterday, negative, negative, negative, negative yields. bonds are back in their box. alix: what happened to the yields backing up? that seems to have gone off the ledge. let's check in with their bloomberg team. guy johnson is in london having the latest on the banking sector, including new developments on the future of deutsche bank. matt bowler on janet yellen. algiers. in saudi arabia may be willing to compromise with iran. jonathan: let's bring in guy
johnson from london. the equity up a couple of percentage points. the rumor mill is in overdrive. walk us through it. guy: confused, i think everybody is, surrounding this story. they are offloading an insurance business in the u.k., which one.ves their tier then you had this report in the german press, indicating that maybe the german government was looking potentially for some sort of plan to be put in place to help deutsche if the fine was big from the doj enough that they could not handle it. , that was then subsequently denied by the finance ministry. they are not working on a plan. they are not working on a plan.
where are we? i think people are still trying to scratch their head. the stock is reasonably well sorted and it is going to bounce around all over the place. we do seem to be getting to the point where people are trying to understand what the government's position is. is it in or is it out? whether they do or don't, saying you will or won't seems to be critical here. if the government admitted that if things got really bad and the bank has said that is not where we are at, but if things got really bad, is the government going to turn around and say, we will help before we actually get there? it strikes me as a little bizarre. guy: you could create a problem. this is the issue. we had a denial and that caused a problem. you say that you would back it and that causes some sort of problem.
it is very difficult for the german government. i think they should say very, very little at this point in time and i expect that is what it is trying to do at this point in time. it is dammed if it doesn't and dammed if it doesn't. think about volkswagen. there are reports that the u.s. authorities are looking to take volkswagen right to the edge of what could survive. that is a big story in germany. jonathan: the politics surrounded as well. wells fargo's ceo is going to give up and little bit of money. guy: $41 million. that is a big number. but is a big enough? he keeps his job, he maintains his position. should he maintain both his positions, chairman and ceo? is it a little bit too little, too late? those questions are still circling around the stock at
this point. something was needed to placate the politicians, but whether or not we have had enough remains to be seen. jonathan: guy johnson on deutsche bank and the banking woes in this country, as well. david: we will now turn to janet yellen. she will appear on the hill talking about bank regulations. we want to bring in our economics reporter to talk about a preview of what we will hear from janet yellen. her chief deputy on bank regulation said there is going to be a big increase in the required forserves stress. will that be a primary feature of her testimony? matt: i would imagine that is going to come up today. it should be interesting to see how that close. one of the things they talked about on monday is that they are going to increase capital requirements for the largest global, systemically important banks, but they are going to try to relax rules for the smaller
banks and that is always something congress is really interested in, the plight of the smaller banks and the increased regulation they have to deal with since the financial crisis even if they are not as risky as the bigger ones. that should come up today. david: she is not up there to talk about rates, but there is a lot of talk about rates, whether she wants to earn not. goldman sachs has a 65% chance, if you include november and december, for rate hikes by the end of the year. does that seem reasonable? matt: it is where the markets have been. over the last few days, the probability has fallen below 50% for the first time in a month. markets are starting to question if it is on the cards this year. we are starting to get data on the second half of the year, economic growth that is not much better than the first half. some people have doubts as to whether we will be in a position
to raise rates. that is an open question. there is a lot of time to find out. david: matt, thank you so much. later, bloomberg will have full coverage of fed chair janet yellen's testimony before congress. alix: oil is popping 2% higher. the latest news seems to come from iranian state tv saying they are willing to work with opec and non-opec members to help oil stability. anyone buying it? the market seems to be. >> it is definitely a more conciliatory tone compared to what we heard yesterday. oil minister said they had not heard any proposal. comingsaid now, the news from the state news agency that they are working on a supply management and they are doing everything they can to find that common ground. the saudi's have been doing
their part and there is a proposal that you suggest you cut back to levels seen earlier in the year. the key question is whether they can actually find a common ground to have something tangible at the end of the day to show for the meeting here. the base case expectation is that this lays the groundwork. for the meeting and the n a later on in the year. goldman sachs sees a worsening supply glut. this clouds the meeting and there is a real sense of urgency with a lot of the ministers we have been speaking to. the stakes are much higher. we might just see some sort of breakthrough yet in the hours to come. alix: could be pretty exciting, thank you so much. let's get an update on what is making headlines. emma has the first word news. congress is trying to
figure out a way to keep the u.s. government from shutting down on midnight friday. blocked a stopgap funding bill because they say it does not deal with the water crisis in flint, michigan. thousands of jobs will be cut at the irs because fewer people are filing paper returns. cut 7000 positions by the year 2024. former israeli leader sharon peres has died. architect of the defense establishment in israel before becoming an advocate for middle east peace. he won the nobel peace prize in 1993. he was 93. , i'm emma chandra.
that merger process took over a year. savings because of this merger. on the downside, look at nike over in premarket. the future orders up just 1% in north america. the estimate was about 5%. ,ome of that is competition some of it is the closure of sports authority. the other company to take a look sealy, down over 20%. full-year sales will fall by 1%-3%. disappointment in terms of future sales. ugly for the bed maker. overall in europe, a little bit of a feel in europe as deutsche
bank is over to rally. jonathan: will it spill over to the united states? let's talk about the fed, shall we? janet yellen expected to testify on the hill later today. goldman sachs' chief economist placed his bets on the program yesterday and when he thinks the fed will make a move. >> i think if the economy does what we expect between now and the end of the year, showing fairly steady growth, i'm pretty confident, more than 65%, that we will get a rate hike. jonathan: joining us now for the -- from washington is the former federal the pittsburgh reserve bank. only when the hawks are having a problem convincing the dove is -- does it is time to make a move. charles: i think the fed is in a very difficult position.
they have no real strategy of how they will proceed, so they can't communicate to the markets . markets have been guessing. markets have been guessing the fed won't act because they have not reacted before. they don't react to data in a particularly systematic way. i think there is a row problem. jonathan: the markets are not just guessing, the markets are guessing right. , asn your time at the fomc a voting member and a regional fed president, the markets continue to get things right and the meetings at the federal reserve forecast continue to be wrong, did you worry about credibility during your time at the fed? charles: certainly, i think credibility is important and they should be concerned greatly about it. in one sense, they are talking to their own disadvantage. there are lots of reasons why
they should raise rates, but they know that and then they never act. since they raised rates for the first time, every meeting they have come up with some rationale to stand pat. even this last meeting is even more incredible because they say they are data dependent, but in september, they could not even point to data that suggested they stand pat. they made the case that the economy was strengthened, uncertainty had been reduced. they said, but we are going to wait. that does damage to the credibility about them being data-dependent. the market is not so much right about the economy relative to the fed. what they are really doing is predicting how the fed is going to react because that is the way they have reacted in the past. david: take us inside the psychology of that room. keeps them from having a strategy?
is there a fear that we might turn back into a recession or is that the psychology of the individual members? that janet yellen is worried about using some of the doves. charles: that is hard to say. heart of that is in janet yellen's head. central bankers, by their nature, wring their hands all the time. they are always worried about something is going to happen. we have gotten to the point where the fed has created its own problems by expressing its fear of what might happen in financial markets despite with the economy is doing. i think they are afraid of that. i think they are nervous about contributing to uncertainty. yes, they are probably nervous about if the economy were to turn back into a recession or have it that shop somewhere on the line, they are concerned about whether they will be blamed for that or not. frankly, monetary policy goes up, then it goes down as the
economy goes up and down. i don't think they should be afraid of the fact that a recession might come, but a recession will undoubtedly, some point and they should react accordingly. frome such a long way being in a world of normality for financial markets, while the economy on main street, whether it be inflation or unemployment, are in pretty good shape. i think there is a mismatch between the stance of policy and the stance of the economy. alix: and a mismatch in terms of what fed officials tank. -- think. you dissented on the last vote. you were a hawk. i think you have to appreciate the fact that there is dissent because there is uncertainty.
every time you reach a turning point, you are going to see growing dissent or disagreement within the committee about what the timing not to be and what the conditions are to be. i don't think that is unusual. i think it is good that the markets see that. that is part of good transparency, letting the markets go -- know what the nature of the debate is. if you always have a consensus decision, nobody knows what is going on inside the committee because it is always a consensus and unanimity in some sense. i think dissent is helpful and it informs the public about the nature of the debates within the committee. at the npc, at the bank of alland, they have dissents the time. it is not as true at the fed. i think the coulter at the fomc -- culture at the fomc would be better if dissents were tolerated better in the markets and on the committee. ,onathan: whether it is markets
china, currencies, there is a new flashpoint in markets. deutsche bank, i'm sure you are familiar with the headlines. let me ask you about systemic risk and banks that are too big to fail. if not going to ask you there are banks -- this one is one of those or if we are close to that, but i won't, because that would be a ridiculous question. we aree reason to say going to hold off all over again? charles: the fed has conjured up some pretty good reasons not to move. they are pretty good at it. it is unpredictable what they are going to do. iny are not data dependent that sense. deutsche bank more particularly, i think the problem is that the banks in europe are not as strong as the banks in the united states and that has been
true since the outset of this crisis. they have more challenges, they are not as well-capitalized. i think the united states is in pretty good shape as far as the banks are concerned relative to europe. sure that -- i am somebody will make the case that, as an excuse for not moving, we've got to wait and see what happens in europe. but why? a rate hikely that in the united states is going to drive deutsche bank into trouble. it may even be helpful for them, i don't know. my point is that some will use that as an excuse and it will come up in the debate. i don't think it is a very good excuse, but it no doubt will be debated hotly. alix: talk about the tools. you were at the fed during too big to fail. when deutsche bank was in trouble in february, they had a buyback and ecb qe to help bail them out. what is in the fed's toolbox
versus another central-bank's toolbox to help with central -- systemic risk? charles: i think those are two different things. should central banks help banks survive? not necessarily. they should be helping their economies. i think that their role is not to rescue banks, per se. role as regulators is to make sure they are well-capitalized and make sure markets continue to function. we have not really solved the too big to fail mechanism -- problem yet because we don't have mechanisms for allowing these large institutions to fail. the best plan for that is to make them well-capitalized. europe has not gotten there yet. we still have some problems in the banking sector. but i don't think the job of monetary policy is to be aimed
at rescuing or making banks survive in a particular way. janet yellen is testifying on the hill today about banking regulation here. what needs to be done to make sure we solve too big to fail? is the a point when you have too much regulation? can you have too much capital requirement for the banks? charles: i do think you can have too much regulation. i've been an advocate of trying to argue that what we should do with bank regulation in the united states more generally is make regulation simpler, easier to enforce, and probably have higher capital requirements, but then do away with a lot of the other stuff that we have that makes compliance and enforcement some cases, and, in impossible. i think regulation ought to be simplified. if you want to a banker and said, i'm going to do away with a lot of this other stuff, all
of this micromanaging of your assets and liabilities and ,elling you what you should buy you got rid of it a lot of that stuff and just chose to enforce a higher capital requirement, they would take that in a minute . it would be a lot easier for them. it would lower enforcement cost. it would make it easier on the regulators to monitor the banks. it would lower the compliance cost on the hundreds of millions of dollars that some of these large banks have to face in cost to comply with all of the regulations. i think regulation needs to be simpler. we can make it less complicated, but have higher capital. alix: charles, thank you very much. great to have you. , the formerser philly fed president. it is an interesting perspective. guys, just do it. jonathan: there is always an excuse. david: it is troubling, what he
sees as the indecision. that is nervous-making. alix: the market made a big deal. dissents are fine, they say. i don't know if i buy it. jonathan: so long as it is not a neck of chamber. with the exception of esther george, it is an echo chamber. , you had him and others that created a debate that did not exist currently. alix: 3%. jonathan: way off. coming up, retail has never suffered an annual loss. the ceo is next. ♪
business for $1.2 billion. ceo john prine ruled out a capital increase. the german finance ministry said the government is not working on a plan to rescue the bank. a wells fargo chief executive officer fighting to keep his job amid a national political fervor. he will forgo more than $41 million of stock and salary as the bank investigates him. saudi arabia signaled it is ready to compromise with regional rival iran, potentially paving the way for the first limit on oil production in two years. although a deal is unlikely until opec's next meeting in november. that is what you need to know at this hour. you are looking at markets here. forget the fed. let's talk about opec. are watching things in the commodity market right now. firmer on the session by 1.5% at the moment. just inching closer to $47 a barrel for brent.
something,ays got whether it is a currency pair, some kind of market, or a stock. at the moment, it is deutsche bank. the equity is higher. the debt trading stronger as well on the session. the dax up by a full percentage point in front for it. market, not much price action. the bloomberg dollar index slightly firmer. here he are in bonds. let's reminisce about last week. fed, thern about the bank of japan, the bond market, and the yield tantrum -- 2-year note issued in germany today. all-time record low yield. in the secondary market, we are a little bit looser. to -- all the way out to 15 years yesterday, negative yields. a difference a week makes. we are going to turn to retail.
it's the world's largest oil trading company, and has not seen a loss in its 50 year history. it is a sitting giant of the u.s. economy and handles more than 6 million barrels of oil a day. our colleague guy johnson is with the ceo of -- at the bloomberg markets most influential summit. guy: i am joined on set in london by ian taylor. always a great pleasure to speak with him. a company that celebrate 50 years and never lost money. take it easy. setting the bar nice and high. let us talk about your nuts and bolts of the business and what you are doing at the moment. you famously talk about a range of oil, 40-60. december 17, we are at 51, right in the middle of your range. are you still comfortable with that range? ian: you know oil traders are extremely bad at this sort of thing. we are a physical company more
than anything else. i think that is right. if you put a gun to my head, it feels a tad low, but only a tad, like a couple of dollars. guy: $45? ian: i am afraid i still think the market remains fundamentally a little bit long. we are still producing more oil than we need. a little bit of stock today. if you are asking about the december 17 contract, maybe that looks a tad low. guy: where should it be? ian: i think by the time we get to the end of 2017, we will see more cutbacks, and probably a know, of fields beginning to age and one or two things like that. i suspect by then we might be a tad high, closer to $55. it will steepen up a little bit. was mentioning what is happening with opec. you have your ear to the ground with opec members.
they seem to have talked themselves into a corner. can they walk away from the meeting in algiers with nothing? there is a credibility question here. ian: it is a difficult one. i think for all these countries, it is a low price. to make thestruggle budgets balance at this sort of price. i think they probably would like to come up with something which is credible and sensible at this meeting if they can, because it has become a bit of a big thing. knowing opec over many, many years, never rule them out. let's see them. we have nothing potentially earth shattering about this one, so let's see what they come up with. i would not be totally surprised to see something come out of this meeting. guy: what do you think that would look like? ian: that is the problem. you talk about the production freeze at today's levels. is that quite good enough? probably, at a fundamental basis , it is not quite good enough to really make a big difference in the supply and demand of the market.
-- i would think, to really make the market move, they are going to have to have some perhaps more tightening of the market, which would make a difference. maybe it is too much to grasp at this particular meeting. but in reality, i think that is what, over time, you need. guy: let's talk about what's happening in the united states. are we bottoming out, bottomed out, starting to gain when it comes to shale? ian: you have to give great credit to the guys in the states. industry in general. technology continues to improve. the permian is probably not economic at this sub 50 price. the basis, probably not as much. production numbers, particularly when you take the gulf coast of mexico as well, offshore, are looking like they have bottomed out quite a bit. to say there are no
more big steep declines coming from america. guy: we are going to bounce along where we are now? or is technology going to improve? ian: difficult to say. we are all putting it together. i would say, for the time being -- i would say -- i would say bottomed out. there are still one or two other areas where we are still going to lose a little bit. guy: given opec strategy in terms of its relationship with those -- using opec strategy needs to change, when it looks at what could potentially be coming down the pipe out of the united states? ian: i am not sure it does. at the end of the day, i think the great thing about the last five or 10 years has been the huge, huge increase in what we have seen under the united states. i think in reality we are not looking at another massive step change. if you assume -- and this is a big assumption, of course -- that world global demand continues to increase somewhere in the 1.2%, maybe a little bit
1.5%, thatut 1.2%, has got to come from somewhere. at the end of the day, probably -- i think this is what the saudi's were always thinking. longer-term, that can only really come from probably a slightly higher price or more production from opec. that is where the reserves are, remember. at the end of the day, the united states may come back a little bit, but it is not going to come back enough to really make that type of demand increase that we still expect to see. guy: with what you expect from demand -- the world is a fragile place right now. is there a downside? ian: i am afraid i think the risk is -- to be honest, people got it wrong this year a bit, because we were all expecting 1.6% on demand, some people even more. they were expecting $65, $70 on the price of oil, instead of which, we are going to come in lower.
economic growth is, you guys know better than me -- it keeps notching down in terms of what we expect world growth to be. there is still a great correlation between world economic growth and oil growth. i think that is the biggest worry that i think anybody should have, is the fact that -- is the world going to grow slower and slower? next year, what are we going to be? that is something that is the most important, in my mind. trumphat would a presidency mean for the oil industry? you must have thought about it. ian: remember, we are mainly a logistics company all around the world. guy: he is talking about trade. ian: it is a little bit concerning, the move toward more protectionism globally. i have not thought about it hugely, to be honest. yes, i think we would all be a little bit nervous. let me put it that way. guy: let me take you back to opec. nigeria, libya -- you work closely with these countries.
oft are you getting in terms when supply comes back, how supplies are likely to be expected -- affected, what is happening on the ground? ian: many of these countries are under a huge amount of stress. nigeria, libya, both politically -- there is a little more coming back from nigeria. that huge amounts, but better than it was in the second quarter. obviously, venezuela also under stress, angola. i think all of them are, to be honest, still worrying about their budgets and how to make their oil industry's profitable at these price levels. it is a real challenge. even some of the countries in the middle east are in the same way. guy: do you think the markets understand the supply story coming from these countries? there are some big imponderables. things like -- these are top of the list. ian: i think to a certain extent this year, we have had the big benefit of having iran come back pretty well.
iraq obviously managing to produce a little more. why,nk this might be perhaps, we could see that number in 2017 slightly higher. where afficult to see big chunk of incremental change comes from next year, if we had any problem to the downside. where the capacity is in the market, if nigeria -- hopefully not, but if nigeria does not get any better. i think it is still difficult in libya to get more production out. it is very complicated. these are not going to be easy fixes in any of these countries. guy: congratulations on the anniversary. thank you for coming to talk to us. having a blast downstairs as well. ian taylor, the ceo of vitol. david: that was guy johnson, our colleague in london. tune into speeches throughout the day. the event includes an interview with ford president and ceo mark fields. alix: more than $2 trillion in
emma: the largest takeover in their making history is complete, and it will no longer be miller time. anheuser-busch invests says it will retain its name and s.a.p. miller will disappear. aat means the end of corporate identity that dates back to the 19th century. shareholders approved the takeover today. walmart is in talks to invest up to a billion dollars in india's company. e-commerce flip cart and amazon are battling. amazon extending $5 billion to expand their. investors gave a lukewarm grading to the biggest initial topic offering in two years. shares in china's coastal savings bank were little shared -- little changed in hong kong. postal savings has a market cap of almost $50 billion, three times that of deutsche bank. one of its investors is billionaire george soros, say
reports. david: on monday night, hillary clinton and donald trump went head-to-head in the first presidential debate. at front and center were there to plans for getting the economy going again. they talked trade, taxes, and regulation. and contrastmpare is the president of the american action forum. that shields is an economic -- was the chief economic advisor to john mccain. doug, you also were head of the congressional budget office. put your hat on and score these plans. start out with donald trump. we have numbers out from the tax foundation saying it would cost us something like $2.7 trillion over 10 years. is that about right? doug: it looks about right. there is a real question as to what exactly is mr. trump's plan. his campaign refuses to clarify whether they will be taxed at ordinary tax rates, or at a 15% toe areas that number jumps
be something like $4 trillion pretty quickly. david: wilbur ross and peter navarro put out a detailed proposal saying how they are going to make up that difference because of economic growth. a lot of it comes from trade, $1.75 trillion over 10 years. does that sound right to you? doug: i have a real problem with the way this analysis is done. there is nothing progrowth about mr. trump's trade policies. they are essentially saying he will cut deals, impose tariffs, undertake border measures that will get rid of a $500 billion trade deficit. the mirror image of that deficit is the fact that the u.s. invests $500 billion more than it saves. that fundamental will not have changed. nothing about his policy lizzie's desk policies will change that. in fact, if he runs big deficits , it will get bigger, not smaller. i do not see how that contributes to growth. i do not see how this plan thanks together. david: this is a central point
about mr. trump's policies. we had on yesterday mr. tom barrack, a surrogate for mr. trump, and he argued that we would have fewer imports and more exports and would make more money, including with mexico. is there any reason to believe that is true? doug: i do not see how they arrive at this conclusion. there is nothing in the mechanics of their plan that leads to greater exports. there is nothing in imposing tariffs and demagogue being protection eisen -- demagoging protectionism. i think this is an achilles heel of a plan. david: turn to taxes. mr. trump has a detailed tax plan out that benefits you more and more as you make more and more. a little bit of trickle-down, if you forgive me. will that be likely to stimulate the economy? doug: i think that the best thing about the trump plan is on the corporate side, where there
is an acknowledgment that u.s. trade is out of line with our developed competitors. getting it down to 15% would be a genuine economic and of it. on the individual side, he has adopted the rate structure of the house republicans. i think the house republicans tax plan is something people will want to look carefully at. it is a genuinely progrowth tax plan that is revenue neutral. that the tax rate structure is not everything. with the base broadening, closing loopholes. there is not enough of that. david: sticking with corporate taxes, mr. barrack says if you give an amnesty plan, you will of the worlds repatriating a lot of cash to our shores, and that will lead to increased investment. is that right? i think there is a lot of merit to getting the trillions of dollars parked offshore back to the u.s. i am less of a fan of one-time
amnesties than structural changes, the biggest of which would be to make the u.s. tax on the basis of what is learned in the u.s. and not worldwide income. that is a territorial system that the u.s. does not use that all of our competitors do. mr. trump has not gone to a territorial system, and i am not sure why. that would be a permanent change and were beneficial. david: hillary clinton's plans, with respect to taxes, she has a plan that is also -- almost the reverse. she will be giving tax breaks to people who are not making as much, something called the warren buffett plan. a30% minimum to those making million dollars. much would that affect the coffers of the u.s. government? doug: she is planning on taxing a lot. she has a surtax, the buffet rule, high-frequency trading. everywhere you look, she wants to have it $75 billion more out $275e business -- to have billion more out of the business community.
but it will be spent on new entitlement spending programs. any ofs hard to see how that constitutes a growth strategy. indeed, i think the glaring weakness of the clinton plan is, there is nothing in there for growth. they will talk about paid family leave, infrastructure, but it is hard to believe that any of those policies would move the needle on the economy. david: she did talk about those things in the debate. what about increasing the minimum wage substantially? is that progrowth? doug: it is not. it makes labor more expensive and takes some of the labor supply out of the market. the most skilled, least experienced workers will often simply stop participating. over time, you grow more capital. you have more labor. this goes the wrong direction. david: on hillary clinton's plan, come back to the repatriation question. a reversion issue, she has a different approach. she would penalize corporations. will that work? doug: i do not think that is
going to work. the fundamental problem is that the u.s. is priced out of the competitive market in the world's tax community. until we get back in line with a lower corporate rate and with a territorial base, every time there is a cross-border merger or acquisition, someone will run the numbers and the decision will be made to put the headquarters somewhere else. a one-time penalty simply is not going to change those fundamentals. david: i see why you were ahead of the cbo all those years ago. thank you for coming to us from washington, d.c. jonathan: which group was responsible for yesterday's strong consumer confidence number? the numbers -- the answer may surprise you. we are an hour and 40 minutes away from the cash open in new york. futures flat. in europe, the dax up a full percentage point. budget bank up almost 3%. coming up next, this is bloomberg.
alix: this is "bloomberg ." insumer confidence rose september to its highest level since 2007. that number is literally off the charts. this is the distribution of estimates. we pull a economists and they add their expectation to the terminal. this is where it ended up. was 98.an the lowest estimate was 96. the highest estimate was just over 101. that number came in at 104.1, the yellow diamond over there. the number, led by jobs, led by spending, was off the charts. this chart shows us the spread between jobs that are plentiful minus jobs that are hard to get. as the labor market starts to
improve, eventually you see the spread start to increase. you see right around here, that spread is at a nine-year high, a huge jump from where we were after the recession in 2009, when jobs were hard to get. take a deeper look at what group in consumer confidence felt better. that is a very surprising chart. people who are 55 and older. you think of the baby boomers as those dealing with lower rates, retirement, pension plans, but that was not the case in september. these green bars are 55 and over. the blue bars are 33-54. the white bars are under 35. it is the white and the green you want to look at. from august to september, those 55 and older felt that are about the economy, versus those that were 35 and under. baby boomers versus millennials, baby boomers are feeling better. this is pivotal as we go into the election. hassle spending holding up due to the fact that labor markets
are improving. people feel better about their present situation. they also feel better about future expectations. this number in capsule leaves being off the charts. jonathan: coming up on the program, we speak with the ceo and cofounder of an asset management group. we speak with ford executive mark field. also, fed chair janet yellen's testimony between the house financial services committee in d.c. equities up in europe. the deutsche bank on the front foot.
slapped with a $1 billion fine. jon: more than $41 million of such -- stock and salary. crude compromising. it made compromises with iran on a future freeze. david: i am david westin with jonathan weston -- jonathan ferro and it is not an easy job this morning. jon: you want to be focused on the bank. there is a report out of the newspaper that the government was having a plan being done over the finance industry. if you are an investor, you are getting whipsawed by the news. alix: i go back to german sailing two-year notes in the -.7% yield. we have seen a lot of money flown into bonds. david: there is some contagion
through the market. commerzbank is laying off 9000 people. jon: plans for 9000 people. alix: we are tackling that throughout the next two hours. we have some big guests ahead so stay with us. marathon asset management and assets under management brees richards will be joining us plus the president and ceo of one of america's largest automakers, mark fields. john, talking about opec is the story of the day. in the markets, futures looking boring. the s&p 500, equities in europe, with the dax trading high. deutsche bank up by three percentage points. in the fx market, very little price action here.
dollar index up a 10th of 1% capturing a pretty dull session. market, crudety rates are high. market, bid, bid, bid. , yieldsross the curb driving lower at the front-end is well with two-year notes coming all the way in in terms of yields. bit on offer,e still -71 basis points. what happens to the bonds tend from a couple of weeks ago? alix: that is over. i have been reading that. let's go around the world and check with our team for index coverage of all of our top stories. guy johnson in london has the latest including developments in the future of deutsche bank. boesler, testifying on banking regulations and yousef
gamal el-din talking about compromises with iran over equity. the equity and the debt securities traded firmer today. i want to cross over to guy johnson in london. if you keep waking up to this news, you don't want to be consumed by the pr of this anymore? i think he thought today was going to be a great day. i am about to announce that i'm going to be uploading my you pay insurance. and actually, i have already laid out the need to raise capital so the market should be very positive. he has been talking to the market. he would have thought he would be having a slightly better day. the german regulators and politicians and newspapers could be getting firmly in the way.
we had reports early on that the german government may be coping with the doj. the regulators also say they have a plan in place. i can't figure out if is good news or bad news. jon: if you are the state, even if you had a plan, what kind of a signal does that send? if the italians want to bail out their own bank, what can they do? send a big signal to the market if you say you have got it lined up and what kind of message does that send to the politicians in italy? >> said messages on both fronts. we are going to stand behind it, therefore we think there is a problem. the italians have been trying to recap their banks but the germans have been saying you cannot do that with current. i don't think we should all be
that surprised as we have had the denial that the authorities are working on a plan. maybe there is a plan somewhere else being formulated. it will be very surprising. but the germans would not stand behind deutsche bank. jon: the speculation continues. guy johnson in london. david? david: from the jama in europe to the drama in the united states. janet yellen is up on capitol hill in less than two hours right now. she is talking about bank regulations. matt basel reports on economics for us. at a juncture where the feds regulatory approach, eight years after the financial crisis is really under attack from both sides of inside and outside. you obviously have the financial industry which thinks that the regulations have gone way too
far and then you have people within the fed who think that more needs to be done, like the stuff they are doing in minneapolis with the too big to fail symposia. a tax onikely to see both sides that yellen will have to deal with. david: we can't talk about the federal reserve without talking about rates. charles plosser about indecision on the part of the fed. in athink the fed is difficult position, partly a position they created for themselves. they have no strategy so they can't communicate to the markets about what is going to happen and the markets are guessing. the markets have been guessing that the fed won't act because they haven't acted before. they don't react to data in a way solarly systematic there is a real problem. david: matt, you report on this a lot. is his viewpoint gathering
consensus or his -- is he an outlier? >> you have 17 members on the committee that are looking at the exact ada and taking different interpretations of that data. that is why you have confusion. what is going on in the labor market is is it slowing because of economic growth slowing or because we are getting close to full employment? we are going to get more information on that next friday with the next report. we have a ton of fed speakers today throughout the day. four or five are speaking and we should get it from shades from the hawks and the dubs. it would be interesting to see everyone's take. david: jonathan will be looking forward to that. thanks. alex? alix: later, bloomberg will have full coverage of fed chair janet yellen's testimony.
i continue to look at oil, up by 1.4%. from algiers on a potential or non-potential deal, the latest headline is that opec has definite proposals to discuss in algiers. what is the reality on the ground? we endorsed and oil mr. -- minister in nigeria and he remained hopeful there was an agreement. he said let's sit down around the table and have a conversation. two hours away from when opec sits down on the sideline of the forum here in algiers, yes, most analysts don't expect an agreement to come out of this discussion. and theestment banks ministers we have been speaking to underscore that the challenge is not an easy one. there was a lot of oil out there.
the flexibility and resistance of non-opec supply so even if you were to cut back you might see u.s. production up. that changes the bounds of power. who do you assign the production cuts to? the key is saudi arabia and iran. when they sit down, can they find a compromise? we understand that iran has adopted a conciliatory tone in the last couple of hours. they are trying to work with opec because the understanding urgency of the current situation. if you think back to what happened if the dollar free stocks earlier in the year, there is always the possibility of a surprise. alix: thank you so much, yousef gamal el-din joining us. now, let's get an update on what is making headlines outside of the business world. emma? deal on capitol hill could
end the standoff over that stopgap funding bill. house speaker paul ryan and minority leader nancy pelosi agreed on a measure to pay for the contaminated water crisis in flint, michigan. democrats have been blocking the bill because there was no money for flint. senate republicans cannot confirm the dispute has been resolved. the senate is expected to override president obama's veto of a bill that would allow saudi arabia to beast dude for involvement in the 9/11 attacks. the president argued it could open up the u.s. to lawsuits around the world. in seven years, congress has not overridden one of president obama's veto is. local leaders will attend the funeral of the old israeli president today. inwon the nobel peace prize 1993 for his historic peace accords with palestinians.
president obama will attend the services and so will bill and hillary clinton and the uk's prince charles. news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. jon: the bank of england's mark carney joins entering the corporate bond market. bank of america's head of european credit barnaby martin joins us next. this is bloomberg.
moving the markets. wells fargo up 8/10 of 1%. $41 million of stock and salary. this is all as investigating employees opening bogus accounts . this is a big clawback. the question is will this be enough? over at ubs, this company expecting slower earning growth and more competition in the industry. the ubs is cutting it fair price -- share price target. also take a look at blackberry, reporting early -- earnings earlier this morning, now it is up by 3%. revenues coming in at $352 million. second quarter earnings will break even. again as iten break
is going to end its internal hardware development. blackberry getting its house in order. but blackberry is off the highs of premarket trading. the downgrades just keep on coming, the latest coming from a price target from $15 a share. m&a does not look very likely. but maybeget a sales not the evaluation that linkedin did. jon: let's head over to europe to check out deutsche bank. ones and thee a t cocoas, let's bring that up. on the euro at the moment, where are we now? about one cent. martinring in barnaby from london. great to have you with us on the program. let's start with deutsche bank which seems to be a flashpoint. we have seen two german
companies pull because of the market pricing. is it a flashpoint we should be worried about? >> of course when you have flareups, bank risk they do tend to follow through to the rest of the banking sector in they can be a pressure point. we need to keep an eye on this. thated to feel comfortable deutsche bank is manageable in the context of deutsche's capital and future ability to raise capital. down to athem to come manageable level where deutsche turn can afford those fines. jon: how do i view what is happening with deutsche bank? is this a proxy for risk or the you witnessed this as a catalyst? >> it is a catalyst for broader
risk aversion. back and saya step this is the second flareup in risk for this bank and we have a situation in the italians and it is part of the bigger issue that when you have these lumpy fines ,r lumpy idiosyncratic events because the revenue stream is it makesby low rates, it difficult for the banking sector to grow their way out of problems. this is why we are constantly having flareups this year. rates were higher, we could believe banks could grow their way out of some of these issues. but the difficult backdrop is very little margin of error for banks to circumvent these kind of issues. jon: you express that for some people, and for other people looking at the move, they think
there is some kind of read across. move is just on the back of very thin volume, a couple of people getting bullish and other people getting scared of what is happening. >> there is a more important issue. needing tout banks be maintained, we live in a regime where governments cannot without having to bail in senior bond sellers. tois a risk we are starting talk about with the deutsche situation and that may never revolve. -- never give all. .- never evolve there is a legitimate move. alix: i want to highlight something you brought up earlier, profitability and actual lending. this blue line is the euro stocks bank which has been pummeled over the last few weeks. the white line is the lending in
euro area. they do tend to track each other . lending is holding up profitability, bank stocks rolling over. did qe.february, they what more can they do without bank stops the coming more profitable? mario draghi, you have seen him in the last few weeks, he has been more vocal about the banks and he has turned around and said "it is not all my fault there is stuff you need to do as well. oh he is trying to remove the debate forward to what can governments do. can we come out with a europewide solution for the problem rather than this piecemeal approach that they are taking? he is goingly that to repeal any of his monetary policy. it brings up a very important point with corporate bond buying.
why would companies necessarily go to banks now for financing when you are personally able to get it to fall on. the irony is it is not helpful for the profitability of banks because their core business is at risk. jon: we will have to get you on longer for a deeper conversation. barnaby martin at bank of america. alix: negative yielding, high-yield in europe. after saudia slide arabia signaled they may be willing to compromise with iran over a production freeze. the deutsche bank rising today after reassuring investors about capital that the ongoing turmoil still hitting the region's bond market. we will dive deeper. this is bloomberg. ♪
a deal letting iran, libya and nigeria producing. the ball is in iran's court and they are open to acting. earlier, ceo and taylor spoke on go about what a freeze could mean for the markets. >> is a production freeze quite good enough? an intent is probably not quite good enough on a fundamental basis to make big differences in the supply and demand markets. think to really make the market move, they are going to have to have some more tightening of the markets which would make a difference. alix: bloomberg's managing editor joins us now, will kennedy. deal we may be close to a but oil still is going to fall matter what. conciliatoryarabia
noises last year, it was really a shift in policy compared to april when they said they wouldn't deal. a significant thing and what it shows is that saudi arabia is on considerable financial pain and needs higher oil prices. but as ian taylor explained there was a huge amount of oil out there in the world and it is going to take time for that to work even if we get a deal. we are not going to see prices shoot up but it does not mean we don't see them tumble again and over the next year they can steadily decrease. says he doesn't see it tanking until 2018. with iran, they say they want to produce 4 million barrels of oil a day but then we heard they want 13% of opec's market share. those numbers don't match up. >> they don't.
it is a little bit unclear. we have some new opec members. but there is clearly a negotiation going on about the it's itswhich production and that will depend and it will be in the range of hundreds of thousands here. the 4 million number is symbolic. buti arabia is just below clearly we are in a zone where we are negotiating and people are looking for number they can agree on. >> do you take it that you ron has agreed that there is a number, whatever that number is? >> yes. i think they would do this at four or above. i think the saudi's would feel that they were carrying too much
of a burden but on the iranian side, they see more than a million dollars a day -- barrels a day and why should we let that stand? you have these leading members of opec locked in the head-to-head here. alix: the headlines keep coming. the algerian minister says we are closing. thank you very much. ceos rain --p, the weigh in on deutsche bank's recent turmoil.
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point on the dax. deutsche bank performing well after record lows. switch of the board very quickly. this is the equity market, dollar-yen yields at basis point at the u.s. 10 year. we get some breaking data out of the united states. alix: for august, that preliminary read is flat. at overall orders if you back out orders, back out air transportation, we are actually up. julywas revised down for to a 10th of 1%. there you go. it comes across for durable goods. you back out air transportation and you are looking at an increase of 1%. it is hard to read much into any of them, frankly. alix: it is still relatively
flat. you have a teeny bit of money coming in. not a lot of market movement there. jon: now deutsche bank, rebounding from a record low. ceo john prior agreed to sell his insurance. it weighed in on deutsche bank and european banks as a whole on bloomberg tv. take a listen. >> we are in a situation where we are negative -- on very negative demographic development. i have never seen the labor force shrinking must you see massive technological process. termsk we are very far in of how solid banks are now from where we were in 2007-2008. we have issued huge amounts of capital. between one and 2%.
much more loss absorbing capacity. itself is much more stable and so are the individual players, the linkages between the banks has largely been reduced to a sustainable level. regulators did it last time it was not about single institutions. there were institutions that they blew around town. >> from the moment you say too big to fail, you are going to create bigger banks -- that notion is not going to be viable. if the banks are already too large, they cannot increase. so that is an issue. we have to look objectively at the banking landscape. it could benefit from conciliation.
now, everyone is trying to be on a very restrictive diet and shrink on its own. i am arguing that that is much much easier to do. >> a lot of what we are seeing is related to sustainability and with capital it is more about profitability. that is where our various concerns in the market and the banks need to do hard work. we need to have a business model that is kind of, weatherproof. all weather business models are needed so diverse city of the business you are in and excellence in the business is you are doing is a key factor. jon: joining us now, finance team leader michael moore and arjunan banking analyst bowry.
profitability on the horizon, seeing some work and things roll over again. cycle -- scheduling celfin billing cycle, they just can't get out. bank, back ine january and february you had similar concerns about the banks capital and profitability. those subsided over the first quarter but it does seem like a never-ending cycle for some of and untilpean banks they have the profitability levels where they can internally generate capital that the market deems sufficient and that they won't be under pressure to sell units, that looks like it is going to continue. this started, again, the fuse was late because we had a report that the justice department was looking for $14 billion. the question i would ask would look atbank, if you
trading to book, is a quarter of book value currently. how could john raise money if he needed to anyway? issue for the key deutsche at the moment is not only capital but profitability. trying to come to market at the moment would be a very tough sell. given the massive dilution risk that there is. so what can deutsche do about it? clearly, they need to cut costs. they have lagged behind the u.s. --nificantly and doing that they also need to try to work out if they can divest their assets. certainly, coming to the market now, it would be an extremely tough sell. if you look at the terminal, this is credit default
swap curve. up seeing a lot of stress, what we are seeing is stress on the front-end of the curve. six months, one year. that is where the anxiety is. david: i want to come back to michael on this point. at what point are these pr problems? do they affect the banks in the sense of cost of capital? sense to go more into the market and find themselves? >> for deutsche bank, that is a question for them because they don't have the deposit funding of jpmorgan or some of the other more commercial lenders. that cost of funding is a question for them. cds, because it is more thinly traded than it was eight years ago does not always correlate with their cause of funding. but if you look at the 81 market, some of the riskier bonds are tougher to gain interest for.
something that they will keep an eye on and with interest rates at zero, your cost of funding is very low but every little bit matters. david: why aren't we there yet? it has been eight years now since this crisis. the thing that triggered this was department of justice. when do we get through? >> there are significant numbers of losses outstanding still. it is going to be many years before we actually get through this. solvency, thenk problem is profitability. they have that low interest rates, saying we have got still in the case of deutsche bank a bloated cost base. that is conspiring to restrict the organic capital growth. thaty new litigation finds
there are still, coming down the pipeline, the fact that hanks are not generating enough capital for them to manage effectively. do you subscribe to this doomsday scenario or not? the equity has been hit. earlier this year, it may climb. if you are looking at the situation, are you thinking this isn't good. you've heard to cut more costs. what are you going to do? your one option is to go to the justice department. until you do, you cannot go on. i think he is in a tough spot .n that stand -- sense until the market gets a firm number on what this will be, they cannot process all of the
risk to the bank out there. thebiggest thing to litigation reserves, which at 6 million now, i think that doesn't limit whose leverage. you can't point to a precedent that the justice department has set. i think that is going to be his key argument. treat us in mind with how other banks have been treated. great to have you with us, michael moore and european banking analyst arjun bowry. coming up, you have amazon sitting at record highs, twitter we will dig into some of the big tests next. this is bloomberg. the 10 year yield taking a nosedive after those durable numbers came in. estimated up 6/10 of 1%, backing out aircraft transportation.
that is according to a person familiar with the matter. flip cart and amazon are battling for the shopping market. runaway home prices in the western u.s. are starting to slow down. los angeles, denver and texas have seen real estate prices moderate after years of double-digit increases. that is according to zillow. the median home value in san francisco rose by less than 1% from a year ago. confidence in the u.k. is bouncing back in the wake of the brexit vote. it is stillhows below where it was before the u.k. voted to leave. britons have a positive outlook on home prices and household finances. this is bloomberg. have ain go today, we tale of twitter and amazon. twitter is in the news on words
of downgrading stock to underperform. the big news came when disney may be seriously pursuing twitter in addition to the early reports. out, thert lays twitter price tag, which could be $16 billion would rival what disney paid for abc. this is balance you could easily support. look how little the long-term debt of disney is compared to its peers. it's got an amazing strong balance sheet. if you actually have the money to buy it, disney would be up there with any other company. >> who knows what the price would be? given that the prices come down in the stock today. >> we keep getting downgrades from rbc, but no. don't buy twitter. david: if they do go forward
there is a potential conference of interest. if you look at it, on the disney board you have those the founder of twitter, jack dorsey and sheryl sandberg, a rival from facebook. it is not just disney. salesforce has the woman who runs you to. there is all this interlocking. if people were to go forward they would have to wall off these. alix: i don't know how you would even do that. eric schmidt left the board because of a rivalry with apple. he was on the apple board and he actually came off because they were up against each other. is a thickening plot. alix: but it doesn't point out the fact that twitter is in dire straits. their users are falling so if it is a valuable business at all, can someone else monetize them
better? >> there was a bloomberg news story out just yesterday about bob iger. i haven't talked about this at all. that this would be the crowning jewel in his career because he had never fixed the digital part. he has done so much with movies and theme parks, he has always wanted to fix the digital part. we should talk about blackberry. alex, you covered this in your market movers. on slowing revenue growth for its core business as a security software, the stock is up substantially. outppears they finally came and said "we are not making these phones." "i was going to give myself until september to make money and i didn't. i am out." you can even make it turn to apple in this sense as well. they have a norm is hardware
business but it is their ecosystem that many analysts cite as their potential growth and why they have higher price targets. are a lot of other people in the software business they would be competing against that it is a milestone. when apple came along and kill the blackberry. john chung says they were reaching a reflection point with their strategy, saying their financial foundation is strong but what he has been trying to do is inching for that goal but that is a true. david: that is to go. fades, thelatility best returns. i will show you in battle of the charts. this is bloomberg.
>> this is bloomberg . algeria today, they are trying to come up with a plan for potential -- iran will have a conciliatory meeting. it is there for a sanction. >> is it nonnegotiable? >> we tried to make something of it. is the decision a consultation? a we decided to have consultative meeting. >> with uci to i things go well? >> could that happen? it is notwe tried but
a formal meeting. jon: that was the iranian minister of petroleum, with a very special communication tactic that goes on over opec. you can complain about the federal reserve but opec comes special. they have been doing this for a long long time david:. time for battle of the charts -- battle of the charts. i am looking at risk parity funds. they own bonds and stocks. if there is some kind of shakeup, they have been hit particularly hard. it happened in august. this white line represents a risk parity funds and this blue line is the treasury market, inverted as the line goes down. it means more volatility.
volatility picked up, risk. funds for lower. we saw it move lower in the move index so volatility moves up. what has happened? in the no volatility bond market, near a record low volatility. risk to the markets. they are forced to sell their it could exacerbate any kind of selloff but we are not seeing any of that in the markets right now. change five years off of my life so i am very happy there is a lack of volatility. thet really speaks to importance of the boston component. i continue to be obsessed with currency movements as they had to the u.s. election. everybody knows that they are on perceivedeso
from risk. people are also talking it -- about the ruble. looking at two-month implied peso volatility minus rule volatility, if you look at this red line, only four times in the last 10 years has there been such a wide gap where people were so much more nervous about the peso than the ruble. they are both oil economies, both emerging markets. it really shows how skewed the relationship is. lateurse, that big dip in 2014-early 25, remember the big ruble crash. there is really skewed nervousness. so, in theory, if you expect some sort of compression, maybe
the peso anxiety goes away at some point and people start nervous, that is not a prediction, who knows, but it is a very skewed relationship. david: an interesting question what it means for trump. jon: your long ruble, short peso? david: that is the popular thing right now people are very bullish on the ruble. it is a very skewed relationship. i'm going to have to go with joe's chart. i love the new cross to think about. david: this is different. alix: i only lose to joe. alix steel is going to be departing very shortly. what is coming up? alix: i will be speaking with morgan stanley, in particular suzy quan looking at all things emanate.
-- m and a. lots of macro stuff to talk about. jon: we will be checking with bruce richards, cofounder over 12 billion dollars. we will speak with the president of four, mark fields. let's bring a picture of the markets globally. the future is pretty much unchanged. on the ftse, up, deutsche bank up, the dax on a session of 9/10 of 1%. almost 100 points. treasury remains unchanged on the day. that is 1.56%. dollar-yen, a little bit further. dollar-yen up 2/10 of 1%. at the opec jawbone continues to wti breakthrough $45 a
minutes away from the opening bell in new york. this is "bloomberg go." way steel is making her across town for an important interview coming up later in the hour with morgan stanley's head of m&a. we will be speaking with reese richards of marathon asset management on opportunities he sees in europe post-brexit. on mark fields, ford ceo, his companies pushed into autonomous vehicles. first, the markets. jonathan: futures pretty much dead flat throughout the day. in europe, anything but flat. equities up across the board. the dax up one full percentage point. what you think is the one everyone is watching, up through much of the day, deutsche bank. no big moves. no big price action. in the commodity market, friend up 1.4%.
wti with 45 handle, just about 1% on the day. yields lower yesterday. we had an auction of two-year notes with a record low yield on offer in the secondary market, of one basis point but still -70 basis points. -- julie hyman is here in new york. flat looks is what like. this is what the futures look like in the u.s.. unless change across the board. the action in europe has helped to some degree, but then again, people are awaiting testimony from janet yellen, the fed chair. she will be speaking before a congressional committee today. ahead of that, we are not seeing a lot of movement. people waiting to make bets ahead of what she is going to say. also, tracking the price of oil. that is having some influence as well as the back and forth continues to running the opec
meeting, particularly between iran and saudi arabia. nike, which was out after the close -- earnings beating estimates, but largely because of a tax benefit. if you take the tax benefit out, earnings fell. or importantly, futures orders in north america rose only 1%. analysts are forecasting a gain of 5%. after theyey dropped said sales are going to be below guidance. could be boosting guidance. last quarter, revenue rose by 8%. one to watch. let's hang over to the nasdaq, with abigail. shares lower on a downgraded deutsche bank. the stockway saying
has run too far too fast, especially given the outlook. he is hearing conflicting reports on advertising budgets. a mixed secondary quarter for baidu. they do smartphones. they are going to outsource the process. they are claiming this will help volume units and also helped margins. here is something you do not hear every day. alphabets downgraded to an underperform at wedbush. horsemen of the search apocalypse, the reason for the downgrade. thank you very much. deutsche bank in focus. >> -- nejra: today's gains on europe's equity benchmark have almost erased its monthly loss.
if we take a look and see what the sectors are looking like, we have green almost all around the field. you have material stocks leading the game, followed by consumer discretionary, up almost 1.4%. financials up 1.2%. those banking shares gaining for the first time in four days. for the seventh time in the last one stock there is that is tracking the stoxx 600, and that is deutsche bank. it is gaining almost 3.5% after it basically agreed to sell its u.k. insurance unit. the ceo also ruled out a capital increase. these shares rebounding from the record low they hit on monday. finally, i wanted to show you options opening in deutsche bank. the number of options on deutsche bank has surged to a record. traders really want to get in on this. david: we are going to continue talking about deutsche bank. much in the news today.
we will bring in a reporter from london. before we get into exactly what do, what hasn happened over the last 24 hours? reporter: really, the market is focused on two things. one is profitability. 'scondly is deutsche bank ability to service its coupons on its additional tier one debt. all of these concerns have been compounded by the looming legal settlement by the doj, and the unexpectedly high opening bid of $14 billion. the market is really concerned on profitability and also its ability to service its additional tier one debt. in the last 24 hours, you see deutsche bank has sold its u.k. insurance building. that has boosted its earning ratio. that is a small, albeit necessary, step. however, there are larger issues at play. jonathan: -- david: put yourself
in john cryan's shoes. he has said he does not want to go for more capital raise. what other things can he do, given his poor book to price from and the demands places like the department of justice? arjun: unfortunately for deutsche bank, there is not an easy fix on the horizon. first and foremost, it needs to try to resolve its litigation issues. trying to get a reasonable settlement with the doj is the number one priority. in terms of operationally what it can do, it really needs to cut costs, first and foremost. overcked its u.s. peers the last five years in terms of cutting headcount. the bank is implement implants to do that in the second half of the year. that should fill through into 2017. however, unlike other banks such as credit suisse, ubs -- the problem is, deutsche does not have other businesses that are profitable that are picking up the slack.
asset management net margins are declining, and its retail bank is operating in a highly fragmented market, where returns are structurally very low in germany. cost cutting is the only real thing deutsche can do at the moment. jonathan: four markets who do not have direct exposure to deutsche bank, maybe to look at the equity. my question would be how useful cbs's to gauge how investors view deutsche bank, given the situation. how useful is the cds market to gauge the stress at butchering? then: i think looking at cds market, there are concerns about the liquidity. that often -- that often results in excessive volatility in the cds market. hasof the things deutsche been keen to stress is, looking at this unsecured market is probably a better indicator of stress in the credit markets. if you look at some of the senior unsecured bonds, they
have been relatively sanguine, the performance relatively sanguine, compared to the additional t1 debt. i would look at the unsecured market over the cds market. are there structural moves, beyond the insurance company they just sold, merging with other entities? are there structural opportunities available for mr. cryan? arjun: there are concerns, especially in this environment, with the valuation multiples that european banks are trading at, how much of an impact that is going to have in terms of capital and in terms of earnings. otherwise, there have been reports that they could look to spin off their asset management business. -- there is always a trade-off between the revenues you are losing. as we mentioned earlier, deutsche is in a difficult position when it comes to
generating revenues in its core businesses. david: thank you. that is our jamboree -- that is a reporter from "bloomberg intelligence." hill a deal on capitol could end the standoff over that stock -- stopgap funding bill needed to keep the government midnight friday. house speaker paul ryan and minority leader nancy pelosi agreed on the measure to pay for the contaminated water crisis in flint, michigan. democrats had been blocking the bill because there was no money for flint. however, senate republicans cannot confirm the dispute has been fully resolved. hastch-led investigation blamed russia for the downing of a jetliner over ukraine two years ago. they found the missile system was brought in from russia at the request of russian backed rebels. moscow has called the allegations and professional information. 298 people on board died. attend theers will
funeral of israel's former president shimon peres on friday. he died early today. he held all of israel's top civilian posts over a six decade won the nobel peace prize for the historic peace accords with the palestinians. president obama will attend services in israel, as will bill clinton and hillary clinton, and prince charles. shimon perez was 93 years old. analysts and journalists in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. jonathan: coming up, bruce richards on opportunities he sees in europe post-brexit. , for ceo, onields autonomous vehicles. from new york, futures flat.
westin. am david all day, we have been featuring guests from bloomberg's "most influential" summit. one guest is bruce richards. he is standing by with on a clinton. bonnie: let's get straight into it. you have been buying up properties in europe, particularly ireland and the netherlands, to benefit from the post-brexit outcome. why is that? bruce: i think ireland is a huge beneficiary as a result. to put things in perspective, just three years ago, 10-year note's and ireland were about 10%. today, five-year notes are negative and 10 year notes are around 50 basis points. we have been able to buy real estate and take possession and own thousands of apartment units.
retail shopping centers and office buildings in dublin and around ireland at very relativee valuations to financing rates. the spread we are making and returns we are making are pretty substantial. as a result of the brexit, we also think a lot of business could impact the netherlands, because it is the exporting hub of your. it'll think of germany, but the netherlands has rotterdam and amsterdam. we have been buying office , aldings around there portfolio of 33 office buildings in the netherlands, as well as the apartment units in dublin. vonnie: what if britain does achieve a soft brexit, saying banks do not have to move their headquarters, maybe not even staff? well behat could very
the case. right now, it is a honeymoon for the u.k. because the service industry in london is very busy. every lawyer is preparing for brexit, as our consultants, as our bankers. meanwhile, in addition to the service sector, the manufacturing sector has the benefit of the currency having cheapened from 1.52 1.30. are talking about sterling. consumer sentiment is pretty good. not for those that live in london, necessarily. but if you are in liverpool, birmingham, you voted for brexit. you think it is best for the country. you are pretty excited. sentiment is strong. it is hitting on all still -- all cylinders. the question comes once they hit article 50. 40,000 rules and regulations of how the u.k. operates with the eu come into effect.
that is when we think the rubber meets the road. that is when u.k. slips into a recession. we think there is going to be good opportunities coming out of the u.k., setting the clock forward once brexit is in full process and you moved to a national exit. vonnie: early 2018. bruce: exactly. vonnie: you are not buying anything in britain at the moment. you are waiting. bruce: we think the retail sector, maybe the housing sector, perhaps some specialty manufacturing sectors are not the benefit of trade, but have tariffs imposed on them. that might lead to that distressed opportunity. -dollar -- whyro might you not wait some more before buying? bruce: anything that we buy, we hedge the currency. we are not looking to take
currency risk. i could see a scenario a year out from now where dollar-euro is perhaps 100, at parity. what might lead to that is a fed tightening, if janet yellen, who was a couple of nights ago under pressure from one of the candidates, to do something about interest rates. regime this low rate around the world is creating a bubble in the fixed income market and the bond markets. it is also inflating equities. that is not helping long-term. i think the central bank is all of the way out of this. the bank that can make that move is the u.s. fed. if they were too, i think the currency would appreciate, dollar versus euro. e: i know you have been saying that perhaps not this year but next year might be a boon for distressed debt managers. talk about that. where do you see it? now, the default
rate for high is around 5%. most of that is coming from the energy sector. twice 6% of all high-yield energy companies have filed for bankruptcy in the last 12 months. default rate is around 5%. you strip out energy, the default rate is only about 1.7%. defaults are rather low at the current juncture. something that can change over time. the earnings have been going down. debt to earning ratios are inflated right now, as well as protection being rather weak. we think the distressed cycle will start to kick in. but the most interesting thing in distressed right now, i think for your viewers, is that $50 billion in cash that is distressed holdings that marathon and other creditors
billion will $50 be paid off in six months to one year. companies coming out of bankruptcy -- the old debt becomes equity. you will be able to sell that equity or pay off your old debt, giving you some fusion of tax -- of cash up to $50 billion. the biggest -- we recently have added some positions. we are still bullish. we think it is a terrific distressed opportunity. that is one of the positions i am referring to that will pay off. the biggest one that will be paying off will be caesars. that will be coming out of bankruptcy. the new debt offering pays off the old debt. terrific cash infusion into a distressed community,
coming at an opportune time as the next year approaches and we move more into the next cycle. which point, managers will be looking toward europe. we have to ask you about u.s. energy. what about energy and shale plays now? bruce: we think energy prices will firm up over time. the most interesting part of the commodity cycle right now is not necessarily oil and gas, but coal. most of the coal companies in the u.s. have filed for bankruptcy. the number one company is peabody. the number two is arch. they are currently in bankruptcy. you have thermal coal, which is used for electricity and most heating during the winter months. from $1.80firmed up
to slightly over three dollars today. that part of the coal market is doing nicely and recovering market share. but the coal used for cooking and steel production -- that has rallied this calendar year from $75 to $205. that is a 270% increase this year. imagine if you bought the distressed debt of a coal company and the underlying base commodity has gone up nearly threefold. how do you think you are feeling right now? pretty strong. and the recovery values of some of these coal companies as they come out of bankruptcy -- not yet. as they come out of bankruptcy, could be rather substantial. richards,uce cofounder and ceo of marathon asset management, here for bloomberg's "most influential." slide afterolds it saudi arabia signals at my
jonathan: i am jonathan ferro. opec ministers meet in algeria. here is a chart that captures the tension. as crude bottoms out -- shanks since -- sanctions are lifted on iran. production has now gone up to 3.6 million barrels a day. the saudi's would like to freeze production. cne -- canfrom the we assume there is no interest in making a deal on the outlook freeze? >> you can absolutely assume that. there is no interest in cutting.
they are trying to regain market share. 4ey really want to get that million barrels a day to level things out. we have had kind of an opec meeting this week. you have to remember it is an informal meeting. the big meeting is going to be in november. i think this meeting between nations is setting the chessboard for a possible freeze, and maybe even a cut from saudi arabia in november. jonathan: it is political tension playing out in nigeria. with a company you know, the world's largest independent oil trader, that said, if you want this market to get higher, you need cuts. can we really expect cuts? >> i do not think you are going to see anything substantial. but it is ae cuts, lot of jawbone. we call it the cartel that cried wolf. we have seen opec set limits in the past at 30 million barrels a
day, but we are overproducing that by a long shot. they come to consensus in that november meeting, it will be whether they stick with it or not. that will take time to play out. longer term, we feel the supply is going to outweigh demand. 32017, we have found a market equilibrium. it will be interesting to see how this plays out, going into that november meeting. jonathan: a traitor joining us from the cme in chicago. we go to the cash open in equities. the open just under four minutes away.
one fullp by over percentage point, with deutsche bank equity and debt trading positively throughout the session. the equity price in frankfurt up by 4 percentage points off the session high. here is the price action in the other asset classes. yields unchanged on the 10 year in the u.s. dollar-yen firmer. yen weaker. of a quarter of 1%. boneec, just the jaw grinding. 25 seconds into the session, let's peel back the cash open and get across to julie hyman. julie: we see a little change continue as the trade continues in new york. that might change when we hear from janet yellen beginning around 10:00 a.m. this morning. we will be watching her as well.
oil has also been affecting markets in recent days. it has been having a huge swing as headlines come out of the opec meeting. it is higher today. to ride --es likely to rise today. nike coming out with earnings after the close yesterday. americaorders in north rising only 1% versus the 5% analysts were predicting. nike is not going to be releasing those numbers in its press release. it will do so in its investor call instead. even the earnings beat estimates, it was because of a tax benefit. the gross margin contracted by 100 basis points. another big headline this morning is on the enormous beer deal. m sizer -- in bev anheuser-busch getting approval from investors for its $1.3 billion takeover of sab miller. shareholdershe
voted in favor of this deal. fromhe bigger move comes molson coors. it will get full control of its joint venture. it will create a 65% boost to its sales space. approval of this deal has been -- has a secondary effect for molson coors. jonathan: that is the price action in early trading. the wells fargo ceo john stumpf saying he will forfeit unvested stock options to help settle the recent conflict. paul, great to have you with us. the ceo wakes up and hands in his resignation, the stock will rally. the you subscribe to that? paul: i do. this is a good first effort in wells fargo to start to move this behind them. , and i do nots
have that answer, is it enough? the senate hearing went really bad for him. what the regulators and what congress and the house -- what is their body language? is $41 million enough? what regulators really want is for somebody to be fired. back some money, yes, but where is the responsibility? where is the person to get fired and shown the door? jonathan: we are talking about reputational issues. could they become material issues in terms of the bottom line of the company quarter on quarter -- profit, etc.? do they become a material issue? paul: i do not think this will become a material issue for wells fargo. reputation wise, they had a solid premium multiple. they are considered one of the better companies out there. this reputation hit could weigh on the multiple on the downside. jonathan: something we could
reflect on historically where there has been a similar issue and how long the multiple was depressed by these kind of reputational issues? paul: jp morgan, a couple of years ago, with the london whale, jamie dimon forfeited his salary for the year, took full responsibility, and move people out of the executive leadership. we have not seen that at wells fargo yet. i think that is one of the biggest mistakes wells fargo made in week ago, was not take action quickly, the way jamie dimon did. had a longer time span before they got called in front of congress. this happened very quick. i think the news got out of control for wells fargo, and they could not get it back. is this enough to get the regulators off their back? we have to wait and see. jonathan: if you are the analyst, the company calls you up, and you tell them, this is it? we need to see, what is
paul: we need more responsibility at the board level and the senior executive level. to actg the board waited is also a concern. u.k., people do not flip between bank accounts for no reason. are we going to see deposits flee the likes of wells fargo, not any material way, or maybe the growth will go elsewhere? the question i am asking really is, is there a competitor out there who can take advantage? paul: i do not think you will accountss exodus of outside of wells fargo. but internally, is anybody really going to open a new account at wells fargo? and jpk bank of america morgan are probably going to benefit on the growth side. materially, we do not see anything there yet. jonathan: great to have your insight. br capital markets head of financial institutions
research. david: when henry ford created his company in 1901, he called his product and automobile. we came to think of them as car companies, but one of the most traditional u.s. industries is going through a fundamental transformation. it is all about autonomous vehicles, electricity, and ridesharing. ceo mark fields is with us after speaking at the bloomberg markets "most influential" summit. let's talk about the traditional business and the new business. traditional business -- the analysts tell us we have maxed out vehicle growth in north america. set record levels last year. where is the business right now? at thehen you look industry in the u.s., we are at very high levels. six years ago, when you would have said the industry could be at 18 million units, people would be smiling. it is at a high level. our view is the industry has plateaued. we are seeing some weakness in the retail end of the marketplace, kind of manifesting
itself through more competitive pressures in the marketplace. for us, we are going to stay really focused in making sure we keep that core business healthy, that we keep it with fresh product, and we keep our dealers appropriately competitive in an environment where it has plateaued. pressure,there price incentive programs? mark: you are seeing it manifests in a couple of ways. one is the discounts in the marketplace. you are seeing that more on the car's side of the business than the utility or truck side of the business. that has to do with how people are migrating their preferences from passenger cars to utilities and trucks. you are also seeing it in some cases of auction values of police vehicles that come back into the marketplace, particularly -- auction values of lease vehicles that come back in the marketplace. david: are you worried about a bubble in cars coming back in? a lot of cars are going to be
coming back in. used car inventory is when to grow. what impact is that on you? mark: the next couple of years, there will be more cars coming back, but as we look at our economic forecasts in the u.s., we are not seeing any signs of recession. we are seeing, in the car market , it flattened out. business, whenever a downturn does come, we are a different business than we were before, and more fit to stay profitable, to maintain and sustain the dividend for shareholders. but we do not see a huge bubble in the marketplace. it is starting to moderate. david: before talking about where you are going to get growth from, talk about stress testing your own business. with your balance sheet and when you are operating now, was sort of downturn could you withstand without being in trouble? we have done some downturn
scenarios. we met so much improvement in our business structure over the .ast eight years or so our break even in the u.s. is about 11 million units. year to date, we are running at 17.6. david: you have a cushion. mark: we restructured our business. we did it without going bankrupt like some of our competitors. we have the right business structure now, we feel, to sustain a pretty severe downturn. company, as well as other companies, are going through a real transformation. tell me where you are. you have been outspoken about how you want to transform. mark: we are going through this transformation of being an auto company to being a mobility company. the reason is, people's mindsets are changing. owninghanging from just a vehicle to owning and sharing a vehicle. understand,needs to
what are those consumer trends? what is the world look like in 15 years? and how do we need to adjust our strategies to be successful? our strategy is to keep that core business healthy and strong , create cars, utilities, and trucks, but also change our business model from number of vehicles sold to vehicle miles traveled, or the usage of our products. we see lots of opportunities in electrification, in autonomous vehicles, and just mobility -- car sharing, ridesharing -- they can open huge new avenues for our business. approach seems to be different than some of your competitors, who have made some pretty big that's. you seem to be making relatively smaller bets, but more of them. is that your strategy? why do you think that is the way to lead? mark: we are thinking about this holistically. it is not, let's have an autonomous vehicle. we said we are going to have a level four fully autonomous
vehicle that can operate in a 2021, with ain ridesharing service. we are also thinking holistically about mobility. how do people get around, for example, in dig cities? cities, what big are your congestion issues, and what assets can we bring as ford? we are working with the city of san francisco, putting 7000 bikes in the area. we are bringing assets to a city and asking them how we can help and how we can derive new is this opportunities and revenue. the same time, we want to solve problems and make lives better. david: we had a big debate on monday night and your company featured prominently. of yourp said because opening plants, expanding in mexico, it is taking jobs away from michigan and ohio.
site-specific. i have to give you the opportunity to respond. mark: it is unfortunate when politics get in the way of facts. we are in a presidential season now. we are here to set the facts straight. the facts are simple. our commitment to investment in the u.s. and american jobs is a strong as it has ever been. we created 28,000 american jobs since 2011. we have invested more than $12 billion. we make more cars in the u.s. than any other automaker. we employ more hourly workers than any other automaker. we have actually brought work back from mexico. our great plant near cleveland, ohio, in avon lake -- we brought back our medium duty truck, which we used to produce in mexico. we brought it back to ohio. as a multinational business, we have to make good returns, satisfy customers. out of aving a product facility in michigan, but replacing that with two more
products. david: if you chuckling after, would ford employ more people in the united states or less? nafta, wouldk away ford employ more people in united states or less? mark: i think from our , wedpoint as a business want to make sure we run a responsible business, driver turns for our shareholders, but at the same time drive economic development in the companies we do business in. that is very important here in our home market. david: that is mark fields, ford ceo and president. tune in for more speeches and panels throughout the day from the "most influential" summit. since when did politics get in the way of facts? that is so new to me. [laughter] jonathan: it has been a slow year for m&a. could that change? york, stocks marginally positive. ♪
david: i am david westin here in the green room. coming up later, james gorman, morgan stanley ceo. jonathan: from new york, i am jonathan ferro. way toeel has made its the morgan stanley executive women's conference, this year focusing on how women in business can get the edge. she joins us with morgan stanley's head of m&a. alix: thank you so much.
i am here with suzy wo -- susie huang, morgan stanley plus head of m&a in the americas. this is the ninth conference. what are the really big themes this year for you? susie: thank you for having me, first of all. the themes are, broadly -- we have an interesting audience, because it is half corporate and have investors, and they are very senior people. women, happened to be but they are interested in the same things business people would be interested in. we talk about politics, investing. we have ceo's come and talk about managing change and strategic transformation. and those are the themes every time. just have a little different environment each time. alix: a conference on how to do business. every day, i am talking about a 25--- 25 point height, brexit, and opec, because i like oil.
businessmen,, politicians worried about the same things i talk about on tv? i think they worry about those things and those are going to be topics of conversation. let me separate it. think at the conference we are talking about it because people are comparing views. we did a poll at the beginning and got some surprising answers, so that is always provocative. separately from the conference, when i think about the boardroom, those are topics, sure. but i think that in the boardroom people are talking about the strategic imperative for my company. how do i find growth? what is my next move, my long-term strategy? i think that is the focus as opposed to what is happening in the next few months. alix: we have seen $3 trillion worth of deals in 2016, well below that of 2015. what do you think is holding it back? is it brexit, the fed, trunk and clinton? -- trump and clinton? susie: put it in perspective.
2015 is still active. 2015 was an unusual year. you have to look at the recent month or two, where there have been a number of big announcements. you saw big deals we worked on. it can turn really quickly, right? 2016 was a big year because of a few big deals. , always happen in fall busy. i think it is picking up and could still be a very active year. it is certainly not below average. monsanto -- do you see these enormous deals happening? or is it going to be smaller, more incremental deals? susie: i think both. i think people are doing and on deals, and they always are. people are also thinking about big deals that can move the needle in terms of their portfolio and what their growth needs to be going forward. alix: where is more room? you mentioned the ag space.
is there any room left? where is there more juice to be squeezed out of m&a? susie: i think health care is always busy. it is busy. with a lot ofa innovation, where you see growth and change. there is activity in tech. i think there will be activity cross-border. it's incredibly important. one of the changes with m&a is the rise of asian bidders. they are serious. they have money. they are looking to grow. even though we think growth has slowed in the u.s., the u.s. is still a huge market. there is a lot of growth here compared to other regions. aix: looking at outbound and day from asia, is it u.s., or europe and the u.k.? susie: a lot of it is into europe and the u.k. i think they see the regulatory environment a little bit easier.
i think they are also considering portfolio. individual look at companies to see what they are trying to accomplish. alix: what does brexit do? sterling fell so much. on the other hand, talk about uncertainty -- hard, soft, who knows? susie: it is hard to put yourself in the place of an asian buyer, seeing situations where you are looking at a target you want. to be competitive, i would see an opportunity. i think that longer-term the market is still one they want to be in. alix: you mentioned regulation. talk about the impact on regulation on deals in the u.s. so many have fallen through. halliburton schlumberger just one of them. susie: companies are being thoughtful about it. if you compare it to 10 years ago, i think the regulatory conversation in a deal dialogue happens earlier, and people are more focused on making sure they
have concrete solutions before they go forward. i think it moves it up on the agenda. alix: do you think it falls through because they do not have assets to sell, or is there not enough competition to buy the assets to make good competitors? susie: i think every situation is different and it is what is viewed as a fix. it is too different each deal to make a general comment. alix: you mentioned health care has a lot of room. what other areas? susie: i think chemicals could still consolidate. i think there are probably industrial. i think one interesting place is the convergence of tech and i.t. , which now bridges industrial, bridges health care, bridges consumer. you could see movement in some of those connections. alix: thank you so much. great to get your perspective. congratulations on your ninth conference.
his opinion. everyone is watching. question is whether it is a proxy for risk aversion or a catalyst for it. bank america of credit says it is a catalyst for risk aversion. david: at the same time, deutsche bank stock is up a bit. jonathan: whipsaw news out of germany. will there be state aid? as the government, do you want that on the agenda? has probably got one of the hardest jobs in banking. intoarket is 26 minutes the session. stocks positive as we count you down to the fed chair's testimony on capitol hill. for coverage coming up. ♪
the building. unlikely she will express additional opinions on the economic outlook or near-term monetary policy. if she does, the town should be consistent of the post-september press conference meeting. -- the town. we will bring you the remarks live when she begins. i am in for mark barton. today, the most influential 2016 summit across and hong kong.n, erik schatzker is hosting a panel on the future of investing in the european union post brexit. director.ng you can watch the panel and all of the top voices throughout the day on the bloomberg or streaming at bloomberg.com.