tv Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg October 17, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT
bloomberg news. pollatest university has a hillary clinton leaving in the battleground states of florida and pennsylvania. the offensive to retake muscle is officially underway. the key iraqi city has been occupied by the islamic state ince 2014. troops are25,000 -- involved. meanwhile, video footage shows what appears to be a suicide vehicle ramming into an iraqi tank and exploding. of food ande amount medical aid being delivered to areas hard-hit by hurricane matthew is increasing. but they are reporting a rise in the number of caller of it is after the storm.
more than 500 have been confirmed dead. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. i'm nina melendez. this is bloomberg. "bloomberg technology" is next. ♪ emily: i'm emily chang and this is "bloomberg technology." up, its primetime time for netflix shares. they are searching and we will break down the numbers. plus, at ibm, private margins shriek again. big blue trying to turn itself around, but more challenges ahead. the shift to the cloud. project tighten on the rocks is apple seriously scales back its
plans for a car. sharesur lead -- netflix are surging 20% on better-than-expected subscriber growth. they added 3.6 million subscribers in the third quarter. hit series like "stranger os" are and "narc credited for retaining customers. will produceit 1000 hours of original programming next year, up from six hundred this year. also encouraging investors, the forecast for fourth order of cyber -- subscriber growth exceeding projections. here to break this down, david kilpatrick and lucas shaw, our bloomberg news reporter who covers netflix. start with you. this stock has been extremely volatile. lastwe got the call quarter, they apologized for the
volatility. what is your take on the good and the bad? greg: there are probably two key drivers. this is a stock everyone loves to watch. emily: it's very entertaining. by thend you can see subscriber jump, it's tough to predict how subscribers will netflix ise offers putting out there. not only do you have the entertainment portion of the stock, but you have unproven response models for why consumer subscriber why they don't. emily: what stands out to you? a couple things that were mentioned a few weeks ago, reed hastings said the prospects in china do not look good. today, they announced they will in china.ng content how big a deal is that? lucas: it could be a big deal.
i think that investors had baked into the stock that netflix was not going to go there. this is a concession, them saying they will not get there anytime soon, if at all. at the same time, a lot of people have been wondering at what point netflix would start licensing it shows back to other people and whether china could portend some of that as well. increasing the amount they will be spending on original content, which now is of costs altogether. that could go up 50%. david, they have retained subscribers and got new subscribers, but what point does this get too expensive? david: if i were in investor, it's already too expensive. p/e, the00-plus
problem -- look at, i love netbooks as a company. i am somebody who sends the money every month along with 80-some million people. it's a good media company that happens to distribute its contents over the internet. i do not believe it is a go to the moon company. it's a very fortunate company that has grouped itself among the internet community, therefore it perceived to have value alongside companies that it really is not that much like. emily: how do you respond to that, greg? greg: the question is how do they spend the money question mark if they wildly throw money into the market, it will fall apart. that is the risk. they have not shown themselves to do that yet. they are very prudent and how they are building it out. but it becomes a quest for hours rather than a quest for high-quality programming, then you could see trouble on the horizon. emily: lucas, part of volatility
has been driven by the idea, reports netflix could be an acquisition target. what is the latest we know? to think one seems that netflix is getting fired by anyone. reed hastings is an entrepreneur by training. he does not seem to want to sell his company. when you listen to him talk, he believes we are at this beginning of a great migration of television to the internet. when he lists the companies he looks up to, it's not disney, it's not cbs. it's tech companies like facebook, like google that have massive customer bases. that is where he sees the potential. there is no guarantee he will get there, but there's almost 90 million customers now. he wants them to be in the hundreds of millions in the next several years. david, the vision is big. does that bring you happiness? david: i was talking to lucas before the show started. i would actually say no.
this is how they could change that opinion on my part. if they started adding other services and became more than just basically a really good video delivery service -- and with the kind of numbers they have and that scale of vision, i would not rule out that they might think of other things they could do for people like me and probably everyone out on this program right now who pays the money every month. greg, you -- emily: get the last word here? they will not only have to figure out a way to use the money better, but as the mature as a business, true business elements come into play as well. how do they manage cost us, how do they build out a profitable, growing business, not just a start up that happens to the public? right, david patrick, you're sticking with me. lucas, thank you. kirkpatrick, you're
sticking with me. ibm beating estimates for the third quarter, reporting 19 point $2 billion in revenue. earnings per share -- the ceo highlighting that they are seeing double-digit growth in its strategic imperatives. in other words, the revenue coming from artificial intelligence, data analytics, cloud computing, and security. oining me now, crawford david kirkpatrick still with me. crawford, tell us the good in the back here. crawford: you have to give this company credit. they often a long-term, multiyear transformation. we are seeing really good progress. would people like to see a little more revenue growth? absolutely. margins also took a hit. the company'sf revenue is no associated with the strategic imperatives. they are seeing sustained
growth. and this is a company that was -- not that many years ago, an army of people innovating and marching one direction. now they are moving in another direction and they are making progress. thecan really see that in numbers. and i think when you really see the progress they are making in cognitive, in the cloud, and in these strategic imperatives, particularly sustained 15% growth, you take that back. they have been close to the .eens for a number of quarters off very meaningful revenue. in a nutshell, that is progress. they deserve to be commended for that. ibm is taking its future on watson. when do you think what some will generate significant revenue? on an individual basis you are starting to see that. will we talk about the
individual accelerators -- the internet of things, next generation security, robotics, cognitive, solutions, 3-d printing -- you look at all of those areas, the one area that through all of those is cognitive. cognitive is a bet on invention drives made and that will significant value. for example, when you look at the company's journey toward transformation between now and 2020, the only area that really increases and we see it increasing by four percentage points -- sorry, six percentage points in terms of how people will invest is information management. that will be driven by cognitive solutions, because people cannot help you get those answers. you need cognitive solutions. we will see that accelerate in the 2018-2019 timeframe. but we are seeing these seats of that today. david, you spent time with the ibm ceo. how confident are you that the
strategies the right strategy? they are putting a lot of chips in the ai, watson basket. is that going to pay off? david: my crawford, i admire these people. i have been covering ibm for 45 years. they have made really big that's in areas that took a lot of guts to do and i'm impressed at the growth they are getting out of those areas. i was sitting here thinking, what if ibm got a valuation just for those growth areas that was comparable to the valuation netflix is getting for its business? they would probably not be able to tout the incredible revenues and profits they get from the declining other businesses in their portfolio like the mainframes and old-style, software theyexy have had for years. they have always been a portfolio business. they are managing the portfolio well. it's hard to run a big folio. i'm impressed. call, crawford, on the they said they will continue to
invest in acquisitions. they have made 12 acquisitions this year so far. what impact are they having on revenue growth? they are absolutely having impact. look at the strategic imperatives. look of the cloud. their acquisition in the cloud is really what a them the basis to start growing that business three or four years ago. more near-term, the acquisition of the weather company was a significant acquisition and it gave them a platform to start building out and attracting developers. also gave them skills around building that into cognitive solutions thathey did not otherwise have. when you look at ibm and acquisitions, look to the industries. look at vertical segments. understand what data sets are really scares in other
industries like logistics, health care. that is likely where ibm will go. emily: last quick question, crawford. when will we be reporting the first quarter of revenue increases? crawford: that has a lot to do with a lot of things, currency fluctuations. i think it really spends on the financial services business and the systems is this at ibm. unfortunately, those systems have been in decline for a long time because they are really, really big. we should be getting close to that in the next four quarters. again, as ibm continues to i thinkits portfolio -- the real thing you want to focus on now is the progress they have made. emily: all right, crawford del ete, thank you. david kilpatrick, contribute in other, you are sticking with me. coming up, we will bring you up
voice assisted siri, now locked in a race with competitors. staying with hiring and firing at apple, it has been teed of years since the company launched titan. secret project this is the codename for the project of developing an apple car by the early 2020's. but since then, apple has scaled back its plans dramatically. markloomberg tech reporter in the studio with me. also with us, david kilpatrick. mark, tell us what the new details are and what went wrong? sure. our story gives the first inside look at what is going on at apple in terms of the car.
tim cook cap a man, a former -- tim cook cap demand, a former ond engineer, to take detroit as low as tesla. now couple has lost hundreds of isloyees on the project and focusing on a self driving platform that could underpin any car. emily: have they lost, and they left, then fired? is this a shift of direction for the company? mark: right. there are three things going on. the first is people leaving because they do not believe in apple car will ever ship. they don't like the direction of the program. , people beingson reassigned to other parts of apple here it technically they are off the team, working on iphone, ipad, whatever. then there are people laid off. at 120 people on the engineering part of the project were laid off in waves in august and
september of this year. emily: so what is apple trying to do? a platform, no car? mark: right, they got rid of the carr left on injuring -- car engineering side. instead they are focusing on this underlying self driving system. the thing with this, they can go back to the drawing board in a year or two and decide what to do with it. if it would be attachable on an apple designed our if they choose to go back to be drawn toward with that. they could partner with the carmaker. we talked about on an earlier show how they were looking at partnering up with mclaren. that's another route they could take. it seems like they are not deciding what they are going to do. in a report, a couple paragraphs in we talk about a milestone date for next fall.
next fall they will decide what they are going to do. interesting. david, what do you make of the twists and turns with project titan? david: what a privilege it is to with "bloomberg tech" mark. you are the reporter par excellence on this stuff. emily: absolutely. david: let me blurt out a few other thoughts. time it, you know, the car take sold a long and is outside their core competency, regardless of how much money they have, i was always skeptical. there are huge perils. doubling down on software, which is what they are really good at, makes more sense to me. what i am curious about, is this extensiona grandiose
of the car place strategy to include self driving features? emily: mark? mark: to your first point, i agree come lately that building a car is a difficult endeavor. but they realized they did not have the engineering expertise, did not have the politics, did not have the culture to build a car. they set up all whole different ecosystem of employees and partners to build this car in the city of sunnyvale, california outside of their main cupertino headquarters. the basically set up a mini company, matching people together from tesla, even apple engineers from other products. his ugly bashing people together under leadership that delivered ipads, imacs, and iphones. but we're talking about cars. the expertise is one 50th of a
car. what they're looking at now is -- i would say it's more than a grand extension of carplay. maybe a very grand extension of carplay. ofwill involve the expansion the sensor field. they will probably want to build their own software on that, too. herrmann, right, mark our apple bloomberg technology reported. david compactor, you are staying with me. mark: i learn a lot. -- david: i learned a lot. emily: coming up, we will talk ankowski.na j whatill be talking about she thinks will be apple's next big hit. and the david rubenstein show -- peer-to-peer conversations --
travelswned financier the country to uncover stories about paths to success. features microsoft cofounder bill gates. >> what did your family thing? and they say there is something wrong with this young man? he just wants to do computers. bill: they knew i was obsessed. i would skip athletics. leave the house sometimes. it was considered a little strange. the story explores the professional decisions of people in business. we have more of "bloomberg tech" next. ♪
account tweeted this picture. it is suspected it is a teaser image for the highly anticipated red dead were gems and -- red dead redemption sequel. analysts suggest the franchise revival, along with other titles, may help try to take to that to growth after a flat 27 -016. elon musk with a highly anticipated project -- you have to wait until wednesday. more on the change of plans, next. check us out on the radio. you can listen on the bloomberg radio app, bloomberg.com, and sirius xm. ♪
they worked with firefighter workers and others to evacuate more than 500 patients. germany is joining the u.s. and u.k. in considering new and economic sanctions over attacks and aleppo. two people were killed and six others injured in an explosion at a facility belonging to a chemical firm in southwestern germany. another two are missing. the blast occurred at a river harbor used to unload flammable liquid. isthe u.s., melania trump dismissing a report of donald trump making lewd comments about women. she says it is "boy talk" and does not reflect the man she knows. she says she has accepted her
husband's apology and the couple is "moving on." global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. melendez. this is bloomberg. it's just after 6:30 p.m. i'm joined by bloomberg's paul allen with a look at the markets. paul, good morning. paul: good morning. it doesn't look like it will be the greatest day across the asia-pacific market. it has been trading for over 90 minutes and is already off .75%. the nikkei will have some declines as well while the afx in australia is expected to open flat in just under 30 minutes. keep an eye on crown resorts today. the gaining stocks suffering its worst loss on record yesterday, $1 billion in value wiped out. this is after 18 employees were detained in china on suspicion of quot illegal gambling.
the australian government is offering support for those employees and the billionaire owner of crowne resorts put out a statement saying that he is "deeply concerned," and the number one priority is to make contact with the employees and to ensure their safety. the aussie dollar showing strength against the greenback after the australian bank releases minutes. i'm paul allen in sydney; more from bloomberg technology, next. ♪ emily: this is bloomberg technology. i'm emily chang. time to dive into the tech stories that are front and center in the days ahead.
first up is tesla. the electric carmaker pushed back its event from monday to wednesday, the first of a slew of events for the automaker in coming weeks. we also want to set up a number of major tech companies this week. joining us to discuss it, ed fromrmayer and shira ovide new york, as well as my guest host david kirkpatrick. ed, i want to start with you. "need a feweeting, more days of refinement." what do you make of this change? not particularly unusual, but not what you want to hear. >> yeah. well, it certainly doesn't seem to have done the stock any favors in the short-term, and there has been a lot of speculation about what this product announcement was going to be. there are no questions -- if it needs a few more refinements, clearly that points to something
that could be hitting the market soon. i think that indicates something more th along the lines for , rather thanr x more longer-term product launches. autopilot is at the top of the list of speculation. -- there was that news coming out of germany about issues surrounding the use of the word autopilot. that could be a factor here, but we can only speculate. emily: walk us through the possibility -- autopilot it could be, a look at the model 3 or y, that they could have something to do with the merger of tesla and solar city. which of these scenarios do you think is most likely and why? >> i would say something to do with autopilot is highly likely. one of the other things that make sense to be high on the list is something to do with
partr vision system -- as of this breakup they had, there's been a lot of talk about sort of aystem, heads-up display of some kind. those i think are the most likely, especially because the heads-up display is something that was talked about with model and it makes sense that a feature that will eventually end up in the new models may be pushed to other models now. there's also a slowdown in indicaten that could other vehicles. there's also indications of a merger between solar city and tesla, things like that. again, because of this delay, it indicates that it will be going to market soon. a heads-up display would be my top guess.
emily: moving on to yahoo!, we are expecting yahoo! to report earnings on tuesday. there's a lot going on here. yahoo! says they are doing their traditional cap, citing the pending verizon acquisition. we've talked a lot about how that acquisition, or at least the price of it, could be in jeopardy, though analysts expect they will go through. what do you make of this move, not to have the traditional call? >> it's not so unusual. most companies that have an agreement to be required to do perfunctory earnings calls, if any at all, where they say nothing about the current state of affairs. obviously the big question is even in a canned statement from the cfo, will they address this question of does the verizon acquisition deal need to be recut or repriced because of this disclosure issue? emily: and microsoft coming up
this week as well. what stands out to you? we have been talking about growingt's ambitions and progress in the cloud. what will you be watching? >> the big question for microsoft is always is cloud. office 365, the cloud version of their office productivity bundle, plus asure, it it has been remarkable under satya investoro see the sentiment completely change on the company. this was a company that could do right in theg technology sector three or four years ago, and now they are a company that is considered a forerunner. emily: it's a big right in the technology week, david, kicking off earnings, announcements coming from tesla. what are you watching most closely? >> you have got me really
excited about the tesla announcement, although i have been spending a lot of time thinking about the way elon musk talked about climate change when he announced the model 3 in the spring. to me, that was a really big vision. and i think the interesting controversy over autopilot and mobile i -- a company walking away from a good customer like tesla because they didn't agree with the way they talked about the usage of the technology, using the term autopilot, which i do think is a misleading term. but i love elon musk's big picture vision, thinking about climate change at the core of everything the company does. it would be great in my opinion is that was something he talked about tomorrow. emily: all right. we'll be covering it all. tesla, yahoo!, microsoft. david kirkpatrick, our guest host, is sticking with me. ed niedermayer, shira ovide, thank you both. still to come, could apple's
emily: apple's next big hit may not be hardware, but it could be a service that works a lot like amazon prime. a team of analysts at goldman sachs suggest a subscription service could be the key to boosting iphone sales as the flagship product becomes a less dependable source of growth. a hypothetical plan would cost $50 a month and would rely
heavily on streaming services from apple tv and apple music. our senior research analyst wrote the notes from goldman and joins me here with more details. david kirkpatrick is still with us. it's certainly an intriguing idea. what exactly would be in the subscription package? >> sure, and thanks for having me. the basic idea here is that apple wants to transition to subscript and services, because the smartphone industry -- we're looking for what's next. as we thought about this, we thought the key for apple would to be to construct a subscription bundle, and the element of subscription and bundle are pretty critical for this idea. that is quite similar to what amazon prime is doing in terms of bundling products and services into their amazon prime offering. apple case of apple, prime for convenience, it will be a fairly similar set of products and services that you
could consume as part of the bundle, which you might otherwise buy today a la cart. for $50 per month, the consumer would get an iphone. also included in that bundle would be the apple tv, effectively subsidized by apple, but from a consumer perspective they would get it up front. then included in that would be apple music, which you can't today get for $10 per month, as well as apple content for things like tv shows and movies that a lot of consumers get from netflix or amazon. emily: you would still have to pay for the content on top of this. >> it would be a similar model to amazon and that it is premium. some shows you can pay for, $1.99, $.99. it's similar to what amazon does, so to the consumer it looks like it's included. emily: david, it's interesting. how likely do you think it is this?pple would ever do
>> well, i think it's a very creative idea. i think a lot of people would be interested. what impresses me is the content that it could allow apple to seize the market, with new product that otherwise might not test the excitement of the crowd and get critical mass more rapidly. that i like. the thing i wonder about is whether this is the time to think about such a thing when their primary competitor, samsung, is self-destructing before our eyes. they don't really need a major shift, in my view. that's my question. i guess i'd be curious to ask whether she thinks this is something they would seriously consider. >> sure. you make a good point in terms of the iphone 7 being a pretty good product cycle,. and it is. we're very positive on the shares right now, and that is primarily because we expect there will be a pretty decent upside both for this quarter and next quarter in terms of the actual unit, and that is in no
small part due to the fact that their big competitor has had the issue we just talked about in terms of the note 7. point we wanted to look at is the next product cycle. if you look at the industry as a whole, there's really not a lot of growth left in this industry. we are looking at low single-digit growth in the long-term, and looking at apple's long-term prospects here, we need to look at these adjacent sources. emily: 1 to 10, how likely do you think it is that apple does this, and when? >> we want to emphasize that this is really an illustration, and we don't necessarily expect them to do this exact thing, but in the last year alone they have come out with apple music, which is, as they called it, their for subscription service. the fact that apple was calling it their first service leads me to believe that there may be a second. emily: david, it's interesting,
how do you think something like this would compare to amazon prime? apple certainly doesn't have an equivalent. >> it would be six times more expensive, which is a problem. but she is right that they need more subscriptions. they have signaled they want more subscriptions. i think it's a very promising avenue of inquiry. i don't think anything like this will happen, but they take what goldman sachs is seriously, so i'm sure they are thinking about it. i'm sure they were already. but i am intrigued by the notion. emily: last question. apple is starting to explore original content, working on a series. it's something netflix and amazon have dived head into, because they believe original content will be the secret to keeping subscribers and getting new subscribers. would that be an important part of their strategy? >> sure. i think original content will be a significant part. it's not the most important part, though, at this point in
time, and the reason i say that is because we ran a survey of 1000 u.s. consumers, asking whether they concern their move -- they consume from netflix or amazon or other parties. the majority are consuming them from netflix and amazon, and the reason was because of the subscription element, the all you can eat element, not the original content. there was only about 2% of respondents who pointed to original content. we think the first priority would be to launch the service, and that could buy them time to add original content overtime. emily: all right. simona jankowski. we will be watching. you certainly got us talking. . thanks for joining us david kirkpatrick, you're sticking with me. next, china blasts ahead with an ambitious plan to catch up to the u.s. and russia in the space race. details of the progress, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
emily: in this edition of out of this world, china has sent two astronauts into space for the country's longest mission yet. they will spend over a month in space aboard an orbiting laboratory. china has spent billions over the last decades to catch up in the space race, led by the u.s. and russia. that is aiming to operate is on space station by 2022, send an astronaut to the moon by 2025, and lannon unmanned vehicle on mars. turning back to the biggest mover in tech in extended trading, netflix shares continuing to pop on better-than-expected subscriber growth, despite its 12% retreat this year it remains one of the priciest stocks in the nasdaq 100. it's currently at 315 times earnings. david kirkpatrick, and with the onset is cory johnson. bowtie day, apparently. cory: i am going to a formal
event. all, we talked about the volatility in this is the kind of volatility investors like to see, but again -- cory: not if you are short. netflix is a stock that reacts violently to corporate earnings, because they don't always meet them. last quarter they were missing on domestic subscriber growth, but this quarter the numbers look strong. i'll note that it's in tandem with raising marketing costs. spend more money on marketing, you get more customers. but nonetheless, these are positive numbers showing growth. emily: talk to us about what's going on in the u.s. market versus what's happening globally. cory: we are seeing that the u.s. -- the developed market -- netflix investors like to say
that the u.s. looks one way. international markets look different. aw anemicmarket shoul growth and subscriber count so nigh. of course they are facing strong competition from hulu, hbo, showtime, and that they reflect that. emily: closing thoughts from you as we wind down the show -- the shares are still up, but there are a lot of questions about how much they are spending on content, whether or not they are in acquisition, whether they can break into china. sinkingthe prevailing around netflix just sinking around netflix -- thinking around netflix? >> if you think -- you should look more closely at buying disney, which is way cheaper and has equal if not much greater
capacity, proven capacity, to builhigh-quality content. it makes me wonder about something we were talking about last week. should disney by twitter? if twitter went down enough in price, they could have a distribution vehicle on top of their content creation capabilities. the way to think of netflix is a really effective media company that has an internet valuation, and i'm not sure that make sense. emily: cory? cory: no free cash flow. netflix will burn through $2 billion this year. -- mediat look like companies are all about free cash flow. they are investing in growth, but u.s. subscriber growth is low. then they have this off-balance-sheet problem, where they have $14.4 billion in content that they have a contractually guaranteed minimum to pay. when you see the cash flowing out is because they are paying so much for content in a
competitive environment. emily: what about these numbers concerns you most? cory: this one, $14.4 billion. it is not on the balance sheet but it is a contractual commitment, they have to pay out that minimum. they will bring in a lot of money from subscribers and they will have to keep it, bring down their costs of marketing. wall street loves the stock right now, but there are concerns on the horizon when it comes to paying. emily: david, you were shaking your head. don'tould love to ask -- you think compared to traditional media companies -- you just gave another argument why someone who cares about media and content should be looking elsewhere. cory: absolutely. fundamentally, businesses have to make money. you sell something for more than it costs and keep some when you were done. that applies to all business, and it will have to apply to netflix eventually. we had this perverse example of the last 15 years of amazon.com, but they have reinvested this cash flow into the business.
it's also not going back to the public markets to sell more equity, unlike so many other companies. emily: what about china? obviously, the way they intended to get into china hasn't worked, but now they are working with chinese streaming providers. media companies like disney have. cory: they have in certain ways. they brought a different models of china, whether it's a theme park or with content. one of the things we saw, the focus of the press release, was netflix talking about owning the content they make. unlike the most famous case in "house of cards," they don't own that content. netflix talks about owning their content, in a disney like way. what's your favorite netflix show? emily: "narco." i can't watch "straighter things" because i don't like scary.
-- "stranger things" because i don't like scary. cory: "get down" is so good. emily: is it? cory johnson, our editor at large, david kirkpatrick, our guest host. thank you so much for joining us. that does it for this edition of bloomberg tech. , tomorrow we have an exclusive conversation with david sacks. and lyft's cofounder will be joining us. tweet yourquestions. we're streaming live every day at 6:00 p.m. new york time. that's all for now. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: we begin this week with politics. with just 24 days until the election, donald trump has sent the republican party into crisis mode. his demeaning comments about women and allegations that he did more than justelection, done offended the presidential race. joining me from washington, john dickerson, the anchor of "face the nation" and political director of cbs news. give me a snapshot of where you think we are on this friday night, last weekend before the final debate. >> well, we have two