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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  October 21, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

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from new york to brussels, covering stories out of washington, the u.k., and asia. here's what we're watching today. investors in europe seem more confident unprecedented will continue a bond -- the on the expiring date. third weekly drop due to mario draghi. vonnie: brexit dominating meetings in brussels. a surprise out of canada the last hour is the trade minister says the free trade agreement with the e.u. has collapsed. potential big tobacco tight. british american tobacco offering to pay $47 billion for the rest of reynolds american. ok, have a look at european equities.
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30 minutes left of the friday session. another week to remember. there you go. global macro movers. declines in the equities. weeklytrack of a second gain. the biggest in a month, but declines today post draghi. the number of earnings are disappointing. hugh is red. let's get to the earnings. daimler, arise. robust demand for mercedes-benz luxury cars. woos new buyers with suvs. his doctor the forecast for earnings, slightly higher than 2015 -- it stuck to the forecast for earnings, slightly higher than 2015. it protects revenue to remain flat compared with last year. the shipped mostly related to weaker demand for trucks.
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daimler has a performed european auto peers. isple is the global, blue daimler, and the white is the euro auto industry. let's stick with the truck industry. volvo, third-quarter operating, falling. heavy truck demand outweighing a program to reduce cost revenue falling by 6.1%, missing estimates in industrywide contraction in north america. prompting it to cut production and lower full-year sales expectations for the region. the downturn follows a jump in demand last year that led other truck maker such as daimler -- by the way, today, reported a 40% truck sales drop in the region stop volvo is completing a reorganization targeted at reducing annual spending this year by 10 billion krone from 2012 levels. 1.5es involve oh down by
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percent today. i want to finish off with portugal. shortly, the ratings agency, reviewing portugal's non-junk rating. the other big three have got it on junk. critical because it makes the government eligible for the ecb's on purchase program. it is thought the prime minister is doing enough to please dbr and will keep its investment grade rating by dbrs. this is a very important function. it shows you the power of the bloomberg terminal. this is the srsk function. it looks at the sovereign credit risk for portugal. this is basically looking at various inputs such as nonperforming loans, gdp growth, surpluses, and deficits. you get a score at the end.
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the scale is here. low risk to my medium risk, high risk. right now, portugal is high risk according to all of those inputs on srsk. we are waiting for that big, big, big review post a pic of the any minute now. 19 minutes into the trading day in the u.s. julie: quickly, i want to look at stocks. we're seeing the dow and s&p still lower today. the nasdaq has moved into the green. individual stocks, a development with regard to time warner and at&t. dow jones is on the wire now saying at&t is in advanced talks to buy time warner. we have the exclusive yesterday they were in some kind of discussions. it still seemed to be relatively early. now dow jones is saying a deal may be announced as early as this weekend. that new service is citing people familiar with the situation, cautioning the timing could still get delayed and
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talks may still fall apart. you saw the time warner shares rocket up on this. the have reacted to headlines from yesterday. at&t down. both of these stocks were halted for volatility triggers just after these headlines crossed. use all those rapid reactions. we will continue to monitor this developing story which is cavalierly -- clearly developing. really interesting marriage potentially between these two heavyweights in the media and telecom industry. also, other headlines crossing just in the past be moments as well on another potential deal, this has to do with rockwell automation. according to street insider, rockwell, up by 5%, is attracting attention from schneider electric of france. just as we saw the rockwell shares go up, the schneider shares in france, taking a leg lower. vonnie, a lot of deal talk going
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on today. whether anything will come of it, is a nether thing. we will see. vonnie: you have to wonder if the talk of the central banks, finishing their tv programs come everybody is rushing. thank you. let's check in on news. iraq, moreern fighting today after militants armed with assault rifles and explosives attacked targets before dawn. taking hostages around the city of kirkuk. it was likely and a diverting attention from the battle to retake mosul. iraqi police say three islamic state militants stormed a plants, killing 11 workers before blowing themselves up. the u.n. top human rights official says war crimes are being committed in eastern city of aleppo will stop officials blame airstrikes by the government and their allies for most civilian casualties in the city. he is calling for an investigation. the u.n. scrapped plans to start
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medical evacuations over security issues will stop in japan, powerful arcs great desperate break was hit -- a powerful earthquake knocking out power to thousands of homes. no risk of a tsunami. the quake says occurred along the sea of japan about 430 miles west of tokyo. new york's cardinal timothy dolan says there were "touching moments" between donald trump and hillary clinton at the annual charity dinner otherwise marked by barbed remarks by the presidential candidates. he told nbc at one point, trump told quentin, you're one tough and talented woman. responded,t clinton whatever happens, we need to work together afterwards. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts, i am courtney donohoe. thank you. one of the key disappointments
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of the next week -- key data points, not disappointment, looking ahead to the data survey by bloomberg. expect growth of .3%. weighing how brexit will affect the economy going forward. , bank of america merrill lynch, recently raised his gdp forecast. he remains pessimistic for 2017. .3 is our consensus versus .7. the third quarter, .4 quarter on quarter. the data held up better than expected. i think we saw quite a slowdown in july. a bunch of things turned that competence around. a big one was theresa may's elevation to prime minister. if we had had that along with the other uncertainty in july, i
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think it would've been a pretty big deal. it allow the data to bounce back. i think q3, but of a slowdown, nothing dramatic. , bigger slowdown given what we've seen in the markets over the past few weeks. mark: canada bank of england, cutting rates as a majority of economists say they will do, with a healthy growth of .3% or four point -- .4% in the third quarter? >> my view is, mark: you are in the minority. >> the data performing a bit better than expected. philip hammond's statement is just a few weeks after the bank of england's decision. i think if i was sitting on that committee we would say, well, we can wait a month, see how the data performance for another month. then maybe we can cut. there talking about 15 basis points off interest rates. i think they can easily wait
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another month. sitting at 122 even. if gdp figures do not move it, what will the next be? >> we have a few over the next few months. we have first off the bank of england on the third of november, then the statement on the 23rd. i think in the near term, the court case about article 50 triggering whether there needs to be a parliamentary vote or not. if the government loses that, i think it would be a pretty big deal. vonnie: the two-year is at 22 basis points. the 10 year is flattening as well. do you see it flattening as well? a over the past few weeks i'm -- few weeks, premium risk getting priced in. orther that is to sterling others. i think you see throughout the day, the market hanging on these
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political statements we are hearing. you saw it earlier today with theresa may speaking. i'm not sure the big picture train just -- changes dramatically. we have little idea where the government wants to go with braids it. they may have little idea at this stage. we really are focusing on these minutia of political statements. mark: mark carney is getting a ,rom all side, william hague the former justice secretary for even theresa may -- secretary, even theresa may. it is independent, seems to be, under western. what we think of this? >> i would not make too much of it. the statements of theresa may, it was made clear afterwards she did not mean to challenge the independent. the statements, the once we've seen in the newspaper on front line government politicians
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right now. i am concerned about the underlying moments, bell central-bank independence. the bank of england is right now one of the key institutions so keeping the u.k. on the road and has been since this referendum. undermining its independence at a time when sterling is falling sharply, at a time when the u.k. is running a large deficit, and at a time when the u.k. is about to make some fundamental changes to its economic relationships with its biggest trading partner -- i think it is a pretty risky thing to be doing. rely on the kindness of strangers. >> they are being kind. i think we need to keep a on these for now, it is an underlying noise level. it could become serious. mark: thank you for joining us, rob wood, bank of america merrill lynch. up, portugalg
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waiting for a key decision on its debt. we will explain why it is so important and what it means for the entire euro zone. this is bloomberg. ♪
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counting you down to the european close. just 15 minutes away. vonnie: it is time now for the latest bloomberg business flash. ubs says record number of currency trades earlier this month during the #flash crash. the peak was 50% higher than previous record volume. in a span of two minutes october 7, the pound plunged more than
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6% against the dollar to the lowest level in 31 years. chase is been accused of inflating the value 15% in one example. a study commissioned by plaintiffs security litigation found the bank overstated how much some of it structured notes were worth by failing to account for fees on the securities. a j.p. morgan spokeswoman declined to calm it on the study. jobs, toonal 7500 percent of its workforce being cut as the maker of trains and airplanes accelerates restructuring plan. after taking on billions in debt, developing its marquee c-series. the second major employment cut in eight months. trying to overcome a cost overruns. businessure bloomberg
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flash for this hour. mark: credit research at dbrs is reviewing portugal's only non-junk rating. the review is critical because it makes the government debt eligible's bond buying program -- ecb's bond buying program. appearing on bloomberg television earlier, he says portugal's problem is of its own doing. >> i think portugal is a case demonstrating all these issues are not anymore a problem of monetary problem and buying time. portugal has not only wasted time to do the needed reform, but has gone since the new government came into office in the wrong direction. now they have to pay the price for that policy, which contradicts everything that portugal needed and what is needed to keep portugal in line with the stability of the
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eurozone. tone,: despite the harsh portugal secretary of state confident the review would not result in downgrade. this is his assessment a few weeks back. >> we are pretty confident the information disclosed from the conversations we had with dbrs, the rating will be maintained withthe next assessment the first of october. vonnie: portugal's 10 year bond , higher about 3.18% than a year ago. portugal is the worst performing sovereign bond market this year through wednesday. mark: still ahead, lots of breaking news. some in the last hour from the big e.u. summit. it looks like free trade agreement with the e.u. won't
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happen, calling it impossible. we are live in brussels next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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live from london and new york, i've on equal. europeans is the close, just under 10 minutes until the end of the friday session. the e.u. summit is wrapping in brussels. divisions clearly taking shape. canadian trade minister christine freeling says it looks like a trade agreement with the e.u. collapse, calling it possible. we have been following the summit. we go to brussels. let's start with canada. what is going on? >> this is the elephant in the room. this is a small region of belgium, less than 1% of the e.u. population. it is smaller than new jersey.
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it is blocking the canadian trade deal with the e.u. a few minutes ago, we learn the canadian trade minister has decided to walk out of the talks, calling at the trade deal impossible saying it is clear e.u. big at the moment -- the e.u. is not capable at the moment of negotiating with the country that has european values such as canada. i talked earlier with various e.u. leaders who were clearly beingointed this deal was brushed by the small region, belgium. also spoke with a prime minister who told me the whole credibility e.u. of the e.u. was at stake with this canadian deal. credibility as a union is at stake. if we fail, it is difficult to imagine we can be very successful with ttip.
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this is serious. we need to have this agreement. not only the credibility of the e.u., but this is fundamentally important for our citizens to have more free trade with both canada and the united states. vonnie: that was shocking. what about brexit and theresa may? did she sound optimistic many deals could get done and eventually the negotiations would be smooth? >> the failure of the canadian trade he'll at the moment is a bit of a warning for theresa may markse there is a question on what kind of trade deals she will be able to negotiate with he e.u. around lunchtime, she did a press conference. she said the u.k. doesn't want to replicate the canadian trade deals. -- from thecave
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ukip point of view, we're not looking to replicate what another country has. we're not looking to adopt another model in relation to their trade with european union. what we want is to develop what is a new relationship to the u.k. with the e.u., to be there ,hen we are outside the e.u. but ensure we have the right deal for the united kingdom. i'm optimistic about that. obviously, we have negotiations ahead of ourselves. those negotiations will take time. there will be some difficult moments. am optimistic we can achieve deal right for the u.k. because i ink the deal right for the u.k. will also be right for the european union. leaders, it will be difficult with the brexit negotiations to achieve a win-win situation were both e.u. the and u.k. have a good deal. the corrosion prime minister -- croatian prime minister also
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told us instead of a win-win, you will have a lose-lose situation. mark: you are in brussels where there are three official languages. what will be the official brexit? of >> this is the concern of theresa may now because the --ef of brexit and russell's brussels, we know him well, he only speaks french. in fact, he says he wants to conduct the negotiations in french. the u.k. diplomats, both the german chancellor angela merkel said she wasn't aware there was an official language for brexit negotiations and that him speaking french was the same as angela merkel speaking german. much,thank you very
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indeed. wrapping up that two days of e.u. summit. take a look at were european equities are heading. from thetes away close. the friday close. we are down for a second week. best streak since september, biggest weekly gain in a month. earnings indicating the mood today. look at the currency board. euro down against the dollar for the fourth consecutive day. that is the worst run since august 24. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ mark: you are watching the european close on bloomberg television. little changed, minus .1%.
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we were lower earlier with basic resources best performers and auto, worst performers. on the week we are up, for the second week in the best since september 2. against weekly gain as well. a lot of earnings that dictated the mood among investors. s&p shares by 2.7% today, the business management software a company reported sales that topped estimates and raised -- for the flagship s4 software. running software on their own data centers and an outsourced -- outsourced cloud. they see off-line software subtractions outpacing new on premises licenses. intercontinental shares by 2%
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today. it says the rate of revenue per room growth slowed. gain of one point percent a year earlier any year -- we had 4.3% terrorist attacks have deterred tourists. they have all had significant to klein in red car. -- chinese tourists spend more time and money oversee. rising 1.4% in the u.s. driven by record levels of industry demand. finishing the week with the banking industry, this is a simple chart of the best and this is among the best, the red line is the stoxx 600 and the benchmark for europe. the white line is the stoxx 600
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bank index and this is since june. it takes into account brexit where we saw a big fall in the bank index. slowly we have clawed back losses and we are almost back to where we were before the brexit vote. the stoxx 600 has come up and down the breakeven line, just below that level as well. deutsche bank has recovered from boj20% drop post for the $40 billion demand to settle the probe into the more residential mortgage-backed securities activity. things are happening in the european banking industry, but they have fallen fast before this rebound. vonnie: it is fascinating and you get earnings very soon. another strong week for the dollar index, mostly at the expense of the euro. --77 getting perilously
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areas lay close to the 99 mark. 1.74 on the 10 year treasury. we are holding onto that important level and the two-year yield is unchanged, 82 basis points. i wanted to point out the , 6.7732.yuan weakerinue to have fixed because of the stronger dollar for the most part. peter was pointing out today that it does not help china necessarily as much because it actually does not import as much , they may get internally. the dow is down half a percent 18,071. s&p 500 being dragged by telecommunications from at&t and verizon.
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the nasdaq is in the green. for more from downtown manhattan let's get to abigail doolittle. happy friday, we have the nasdaq higher after the index opened slightly lower and this puts it on pace for its first weekly gain in three weeks . a bit of a divergence between the nasdaq in the dow and the s&p 500. the dow is on pace for a weekly decline for the third weekly decline in a row, the longest losing streak since may. a small and subtle point that is important to keep an eye on. as for what is helping the nasdaq today and on the week, technology. microsoft earlier put in a new record high, besting a level put back in 1999 after microsoft put up a very nice fiscal first-quarter be on the top and bottom line and it looks like the strength was driven by the
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cloud business and pcs. the company did offer second quarter or december quarter guidance on the top line for sales below some estimates, but that stock is not getting hit on this. perhaps investors are getting a pass around this with microsoft saying linkedin acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter. we had two upgrades on microsoft. another tech stock trading at --ord high, peek out the online merchant put up a very big third quarter beat earnings. they also boosted the fall three-year outlook. the streak is not quite as bullish as you would think. interestingly, piper has a comment saying that this sets the bar high for paypal while james says while it was a good
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quarter there is some insert -- uncertainty in the model including merchant transaction down 306 basis points and he continues it to -- expects it to continue trading lower. i will take it from here, thank you. i will point out that we are all oday because t it is national breast cancer awareness week. >> taking a look at the typhoon making landfall in china. schools are closed and airlines have suspended flights. it will remain in course for much of today. internet service was disrupted for many people in the eastern united states after a web hosting service was attacked by hackers. helps with the loading of
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webpages and said it was monitoring what it calls a ,enial of service attack twitter, spotify, the new york times, and other reported sites were reported. donald trump and hillary clinton arnett connect in the traditionally red state of georgia. that is according to the atlanta journal constitution poll. the green party's jill stein is not on the ballot. a majority of voters, nearly 70% say the loser of the race for the white house should accept the results according to a consulate only 14% say the loser should challenge the outcome and 46% of votes agree with donald trump that the voting system is rigged. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. from the u.s. election to
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the said decision investors face a load of questions. the vice-chairman of equities at baird and we want to look at industrial. this is a man who is half glassful and we always joke about that, but it is refreshing. if you had to say three things which might make you consider your glass half full approach which we have discussed in recent months, even post brexit, what would they be? to the downside. >> i would be concerned if the dollar rallied strongly from here because a big proportion of s&p earnings come from overseas so that would concern me. a big spike in the oil price would concern me, it might be ,aken short-term as positive
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but longer-term it would be quite inflationary and i would also be concerned about more than 25-50 basis point interest rate hikes next year. mark: are we going to get any of those three? jump in oil or jump in dollar or more than 25 basis points? >> i do not think so. i feel interest rate even though they are going up at the margin will be lower for longer. i do not see that on the horizon. i remain very optimistic about the market. vonnie: we had a variety of earnings reports in the last couple days from the likes of , thoughcific, from ge weathers if you like for the u.s. economy and they were not particularly optimistic. what do investors do at this point? do they rotate out of the types of stocks that have been good for them for a while into other things now? .atrick: it is a good question
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-- drills done exceptionally well this year, the fifth best-performing stock out of the s&p and if you look at the earnings which you allude to, they have been a little bit soft. generally you buy cyclicals when they look expensive, so they look expensive now and what the market is telling you is that they will see a recovery next year. i would be a little aloof to and rotatestocks into other areas. generally, at the moment what is working is high basis stocks like industrials and certainly the low basis stocks are not. , butr what you are saying these stocks always appear expensive when they are about to for and i think the outlook 2017 looks interesting and if you look at the election candidates, they are both pretty
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bipartisan about fiscal spending and infrastructure spending so that should bode well for the cyclicals. vonnie: what about other stocks that looked tempting like for example oil stocks or financials for that matter? patrick: we are warming to the financials, just yesterday i was talking to a client about the financials and he was saying they have had a hell of a run in the last quarter. one times tangible, looked at the return on capital. if you look at the return on capital they are in about 10%, the same as utilities, but they traded a 10% discount to utilities. financials, we as a firm are beginning to warm to them, so they have had a pretty good run. the other areas we particularly like, technology stocks, we have seen that with ebay and microsoft overnight and the
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other area which is not been so good are our consumer very discretion -- consumer discretionary stocks and technologies. those are the favorite areas followed by industrial, the financials, and possibly warming to materials. mark: they begs the question about european financials, which have outperformed the stoxx 600 this month by four or five times. it is a daring question, have we seen the lows of european banks? patrick: that is a great question and you are really putting me on the spot. i think you have to see recapitalization in the italian banks and we have an election coming up so they have to swallow some pain. you have a huge bazooka with mr. draghi ready to come to the rescue and deutsche bank is
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there. losses from the proof -- proposed settlement with the doj. patrick: baird is an investment bank, so they may be losing a little bit upmarket share. i think they have had $900 billion put into their banks, europe has, so i would say they are looking interesting. mark: they give for joining us, patrick spencer, mr. glass half-full. vonnie: coming up, network equipment maker ericsson reporting the price fall in four years, will the company soon be up for sale? this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i am mark barton and vonnie quinn is in new york. this is the european close. germany's 10 year bonds are headed for their first weekly gain. mario draghi said policymakers the fx discuss tapering and rate strategist is here, good to see you again. a box with mario draghi's name next to it would there be a big kick -- tick? >> i think they did a good job managing expectation. we did not see volatility after the announcement yesterday. in previous occasions we have seen volatility. in september when they held ores and no extension of qe
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discussion of it we saw the spanish bond yield raise about 16 basis points in the days following and we have kind of gone sideways since the ecb announced what they did yesterday which was a non-announcement for some people . we have to watch this in the coming days and weeks, but it looks like they are actually not promoting any additional prompt -- market volatility. mark: it is highly likely they will extend the program. >> i think they did telegraph that. what he said yesterday is very much setting up markets for a december extension of qe beyond march. mark: everyone is focusing on and-dollar which today continuing today has fallen to a seven-month low. richard: if you look at the euro on a trade weighted races, it has come off from the highest levels we saw a earlier this month and tour the end up last month.
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lowse still well above the we saw last year, even 3.5% higher than previous exit. sterling is a big driver of this. despite the fall in euro-dollar, it is still stubbornly strong and that is something that will be concerning the ecb. mark: i looked at the fx firstst earlier and quarter next year the median forecast is 109 and eve or he has a $.99 call. it is not a lot of calls for parity. richard: i think if we rewind about a year ago there was a lot is not fact the fed
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being as hawkish as a lot of people were expecting this time last year has taken some of the shine off the u.s. dollar and the euro has risen. mark: let's talk about the pound a look at an index which we should promote as much as possible because it is a wonderful index, the british pound -- the bloomberg pound index measuring sterling against several of its peers. richard: i think this is the first week in seven we have seen a rise in the bloomberg pound index and what is happening is there is a lot of crowded positioning and we look forward to the gdp numbers because if you look at the post brexit data we have seen it is actually been ok. it could be that this number is actually a surprise to the upside and maybe that gives the pound more upside at least in the short term. , article a big concern
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50, long-term is something people are more concerned about. mark: how hard is it to trade sterling when it is linked to the daily machinations of the political system? does that make it almost impossible to predict where it is heading? ithard: i think it makes very difficult because notwithstanding the better data, you get political headlines and if people are constructive on the pound post-brexit, the political headlines drive the position against them sharply. mark: thank you for joining us, richard jones, bloomberg fx and rates strategist. michael mckee, those looking at european bonds. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ vonnie: you are watching "bloomberg markets." at&t said to be pushing time
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warner takeover deals by monday because the likes of google or apple could come in and make a bid. stock is down further, donna the low of the day 3.5 percent lower practically at the lowest of the day at least. that deal being pushed for by monday. time for our battle of the chart and we are looking at the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. mark barton and kicking things off, michael mckee. michael: we will talk about portugal because later today the toronto based ratings industry, one of the four big ones in europe is going to announce the latest ratings for portugal and the question is will they keep their investment grade rating? if they lose it they have already -- if they have already been rated junk they are not eligible for qe purchases, that means borrowing cost goes up in their banks have trouble getting loans from the ecb.
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it is a big deal and this announcement could come out at any hour and you are looking at how the portuguese bond traded since the end of the financial crisis and it has been one of europe's problem children. on friday the government said it is lowering the growth forecast and that it is going to have hired debt ratios going into 2017. the concern is will the brs -- dbrs take that into effect? the german yield keeps going down and down and they went all the way up to 21% at the height of the crisis about win greece was going bad and this is mario draghi, the whatever it takes comment, they went down and down and now they are coming back up because investors are worried about what would happen if they lost to the investment grade rating. portugal is the worst behaving sovereign bond. that could all change if they keep the rating. vonnie: that is chart 4465.
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ode to three yield curve, mark barton's ode to three yield curve. what you learn by looking at yield curves, you can get 3% yield on the portuguese ten-year , all of the yield curve above zero. is the italy, this yellow line right there, the three-month yield is approaching minus .4%, so none of it is below. germany up to six heels below the positive rate, which is why the ecb is looking into scarcity. it is a wonderful chart. portugal ahead of the dbrs rating in portugal, if it goes to jump the ecb cannot by portuguese debt, what happens to the yield curve? an ode to yield curves by mark barton. vonnie: you know i am a sucker
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for curbs -- for yield curves i should say. mark: that is the quote of the day. vonnie: they are both similar charts, part of michael's story was in mark's, i am going to award a tie. at&t is reaching -- fighting to reach a time warner deal by monday. that is breaking news, at&t looking to push the deal by monday, they do not want apple or google to come in as a counter better. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ is a new and in new york, 5:00 p.m. in london and midnight in hong kong. i am vonnie quinn. mark: and i am mark barton, welcome to -- i am david gura,
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welcome to "bloomberg markets." we are covering stories from san francisco and hong kong this hour. microsoft shares surged to a record high today after first quarter sales and earnings topped estimates. a series of upgrades at mcdonald's global rotations -- global locations boosted sales. maker is try to make the product less intimidating to millennials. let's go to julie hyman for the latest. julie: there are so many possibilities, i hope you ask if cognac can be paired with a big mac and fries, bringing all of the stories today. we have little change once again although stock seven bouncing off of the lows. the


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