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tv   Bloomberg Markets Middle East  Bloomberg  October 23, 2016 12:00am-1:01am EDT

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media megamerger -- at&t fores to buy time warner $88 billion in a sign that content is king. trump vows to block deals like this if he wins the election. saudis will record bond sales boost assets across the gulf, investors making $200 million in the first day of trading. and the fallout for turkey' currency and economys as the central bank surprises by
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keeping rates on hold. it is 8:00 a.m. in dubai, 5:00 in london, and this is "bloomberg markets: middle eas." " we are just under two hours away from the opening of the emirates markets. dubai and abu dhabi. let's run you how they last closed last week. take a look at dubai, abu dhabi and qatar. you can see a mixed picture. you're going to the earnings season. we have a couple of big bang results in abu dhabi. also must recommend in dubai. we will see how this open. -- elsewhere in the gulf, lots of optimism off the back of that makeup saudi funded sale. more about that later in the show. and over in egypt, up 1.4%. we are waiting for a potential currency devaluation, has not happened yet.
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in israel, tel aviv stocks relatively unchanged. looking at how markets closed in the u.s., we have the s&p 500 pretty much treading water, despite the middle of earnings season, and some pretty decent corporate results. the dow jones also in the middle of change. nasdaq up one third of a percentage point. alright, i wanted to kick off the show with a chart that i think says a lot about what's going on with market. this is the u.s. treasury volatility chart from the cboe. can think about it like -- if using a look, it's out of lowest since may 2013. that was right ahead of the taper tantrum. we saw san francisco fed president john williams on friday said he would support an
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interest rate hike in 2006. more interesting way he would not be worried if the fed want about it inflation target of 2%. we have much more fed speak coming up, specifically tomorrow. i think we have a quartet of federal speakers. expect a lot of action in the treasury markets later this week. and on to our top story. at&t agreed to buy time warner for $85.4 billion, forming a new telecommunications and media empire. the cash and stock deal values time warner at $107.5 per share, 20% more than fridays closing price. bloomberg david mclachlan joins us from the line. what we know about the deal so far? david: it was just announced aboutt, and this deal is marrying time warner's content,
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which includes hbo and cnn and with all thedio way that at&t distributes customers. at&t is the second largest wireless provider in the united states. last year it on directv, a satellite tv company, and an internet service. it has ways of distribution content and is going to take time warner's content and bring the two together. this is another big step that taken in the last few
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years. host: david, it has been over a day since this deal came to light and people are talking about antitrust issues. what kind of things will regulators be focusing on and what kind of environment is steel going to face in washington? id afterhe company's sa the deal was announced that they don't expect a in the last few years. host: difficult regulatory process. looking for medial from concussed -- and from a deal from comcast, crew bought nbc universal. that got through fairly smoothly. asically comcast agreed to number of conditions that were essentially aimed at protecting competition from online video distributors like netflix.
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so this basically -- this at&t deal mirrors that deal because it is uniting a distributor with a content provider, just like the comcast deal. at&t is looking at that as a playbook. i think the same issue that regulators are looking at and the comcast deal will come up again. i think the challenge though for mentioned as an introduction, there is an election going on. donald trump came out against the deal. this is going to be decided in a new administration, whether that is all trump or hillary clinton. besides, donald trump, clinton has made antitrust enforcement a
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priority for her campaign. i think the environment might be tougher. it is coming after some big challenges by the justice department against some very large deals on antitrust grounds. much david, staying up for us late in washington. let's check in on the first word headlights around the world. ♪ >> the san francisco fed oneident says he supports interest rate hike this year, and a few more in 2017. says the u.s. economy is well-positioned to raise rates. williams is not voting on fed policy this year, but says it is essential that the fed achieves its 2% inflation target. traders c 868% chance of a rate hike -- see a 68% chance of a rate hike. petrograd has settled 4 lawsuits
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over lawsuits linked to its corruption investigation. pimco was one of the investors that sued the brazilian state company. that progress says it will include a $350 million provision in its third quarter financial statements to reflect a supplement. petrobras denies all allegations of wrongdoing, but faces 23 similar cases, and a class-action lawsuit brought by mulroney shareholders. -- minority shareholders. a goldman sachs ceo has said he personally supports and admires hillary clinton. in an interview to run on cnn. he previously shied away from publicly backing a presidential candidate, saying he would support who has the best chances. and eight and script. on sunday, he says he's supportive of the democratic candidate, though does not agree with all of her policies. is european union says it
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too soon to consider closing sanctions on russia for bombing rebel held areas of syria. after two days of talks of brussels, eu leaders say all available options remain on the table. the u.k., france, and germany wanted to take a harsher line with russia, while italy and others opposed that. heavy fighting and airstrikes have been reported in aleppo after russia lifted a unilateral cease-fire on saturday. to global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> saudi arabia's record international bond sale debut is shifting the ground around international debt market, fueling price gains in qatar, bahrain, and dubai. curious our finance reporter matthew martin. matthew, let's talk about the people that actually bought this on -- this bond we thought there
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would be a lot of money coming in from asia, where we have low rates and lots of stimulus. but it seems to be mostly bond funds, specifically in the u.s. matthew: that was a surprise. number, they put together a $67 billion deal in rarely cap asia at all. that is why you see the source of profit people have been able to make on saudi bonds in the first couple days of trading. the asian investors have been buying into the secondary market. that helps to push the prices up. a pop.t, we had and if you got in on the sale, he made a pretty penny, right? matthew: that maybe the price that the saudis paid, but they will be coming back to the market later on and don't want to leave investors with a sour taste in the mouth later in the year. >> right, there's a lot riding on the perfect execution.
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participation of u.s. investors is investigation --is interesting in the midst of this 9/11 legislation. that that not seem to make her goal nervous. matthew: there was a lot of run up that the 9/11 bill would impact demand, and its investors got spooked by prospects of lawsuits against saudis in the u.s. i think there has been a huge amount of political noise about that in the west whether this bill will be rewritten. in the end, it seems that investors took the view that they will cast it from their minds and buy into the saudi story. >> will saudi arabia come back into market, given that they d intimate for $17.5 billion? matthew: they have been explicit and wanting to increase the debt to gdp level. the big story, don't invest in oil, invest for the economic reform story.
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that requires a huge month cap, --huge amount of capital to pay for the transition and investments. we should be seeing saudi arabia come in. have not given us guidance. but between now and 2020, they want to increase the jet to gdp -- debt to gdp ratio to 3%. they will come out fairly regularly. 30%.bt to gdp ratio to host: we have been told that saudi arabia dragged down spreads on almost every bond. does that mean they are the new price maker in the middle east? matthew: that would seem like the right position for them to be in. they are a g-20 country, by far the largest in the region. it should be setting the standards for the region and other creditors. i think that economy is correct and we will see that starting to work through the system in the next few months and years.
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we will see other saudi court using -- saudi corporate using the saudi paper is a new benchmark. thanks martin, >> exciting times. uncertain times for the global economy as brexit and trump make waves worldwide. we get the view of former swedish prime minister. plus russia talks with opec about coming up at. --about cutting output. we talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> time for a quick look at some of the events we are watching this week. duterte makes his way
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to talks with shinzo abe. various territorial claims in the south china sea are likely to be raised, as well as investment opportunities. bank of china kicks off the recording season for the month biggest lenders. analyst expects the most 0 profit growth as bad loans continue to rise. nccb are do with results on thursday. on thursday, turkey's central-bank releases its fourth and final inflation report for the year. that i kept all three of its main rates on hold, citing the impact of a weaker lire on prices. it was the first meeting on march sense to cut. the lira has fallen as much as 5% following the previous decision in september. opec presented of will meet russian officials in vienna on to allocate the output cuts.
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crude prices has risen 7% in late september when the group agreed to limit production for the first time in eight years. iran, libya, and nigeria will be exonerated due to earlier production losses. joining us now is managing director with cmo global asset management. let's start out with the saudi bond we were just talking about. how much of a game changer is that successful issue for the fixed markets in the gulf? >> it is massive. first is the return of the saudis into the international bond market. but also it is historically the largest issue ever on the emerging markets. it since the benchmark not only for other countries in the region, for culprits to start pricing off that risk. corporates to start
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pricing off that risk. >> could come to market? we have seen saudi banks under a lot of liquidity pressure. could they be the next one? firas: part of doing an external issue is to relieve some of the internal pressure so that banks can take care of internal anything again. internal lending again. thanks can be part of the candidates for issuing debt. we will need to see how much liquidity they can create in the nine months before we can speculate. they will definitely be in a good position to have a decent pricing inflow. >> confidence we saw from investors -- $67 billion worth $17.5 billion worth of debt. do you expect that confidence to feed into the gulf market as well? firas: we expect to have a
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positive sentiment going forward. on the back of the grid bond sales, bahrain is already at a pretty distant premium above saudi. that is an indication of a positive sentiment and a return to the markets. host: and in terms of that confidence, and a lot of participation as you just discussed from the u.s., does that mean for investors are prepared to give saudi arabia time to adjust and implement its significant economy changes? firas: the short answer is yes. this issue by far exceeded the average 2 to 3 times oversubscription we see in emerging markets. there is implicitly a piggybacking of that issue and a bigs appetite. people expected a much bigger spread over qatar. the expected this to be more
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expensive for the saudis. shrank back. so even with that tightening, there was that appetite. that shows how bullish a lot of investors are on the studys. -- ont he saudis. is a that is a vote of confidence. host: we are going to continue our chat with firas malah, this is bloomberg. ♪
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host: welcome back, you are watching "bloomberg markets: middle east" live from dubai. mallahith us is firas from bmo global asset management. we were just talking about the tight pricing on the saudi bond sale, same daytime it exactly right because of all the
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saying that they timed it exactly right. how much did that feed into optimism from investors? tracy: firas: there is a window before the election. butjust in terms of opec, the elections. the could see the direct reaction of markets the day it was announced. i think that will continue until we get the confirmation in november. tracy: for good might journalistic system --forgive my journalistic cynicism, which chose this chart the last time we had opec quotas in production. production was much higher than quotas. what does the reinstatement of these production quotas mean for markets, and how seriously should investors be taking them? firas: now we are talking about signals. this is more about an intention to finally agree on making sure we control certain production
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levels to keep it reasonable. i don't think today speculating on the volumes would make sense. that what you are talking about mortgages the intent. --about more is the intent. there is a desire to freeze production in the near future. tracy: how are you recommending to your clients and investors about taking advantage of that optimism and signaling from opec? firas: first of all when you have debt issues like the one in saudi, that is a definite buy. we encourage investors to look at the equity markets. again, the pricing levels today are very attractive. it is over discounted compared to the future prospect of the saudi's but also the gcc. that is a buying opportunity both on the debt and equity
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market. tracy: have seen sovereign wealth funds starting to pull dollars from fsf managers. reverse during the times when oil was high. does that mean for emerging market debt? firas: we have seen in recent was about $1.5 billion polled from sovereigns. for me, that mean sovereign wealth funds have less confidence in certain asset classes. lettuce and forget sovereigns invest in -- let us not forget that sovereigns invest in 3 channels and have their own trading floors. it is difficult to measure private equity, real estate, and hedge funds. we are measuring one channel, which has a net outflow of $10 billion.
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75 lost money. there is a good volume. seeing outflow in emerging debt is a view that some of the sovereigns do not have that bullishness, or thinking that emerging debt will give them profit. tracy: is there a sense that these sovereign wealth funds are investing in the alternative investments as you mentioned? firas: we have seen a lot of real estate deals since the beginning of the year. negative deals in singapore, london, and new york. -- mega-deals in singapore, london, and new york. tracy: so more assets on demand? firas: i think they are seeking dividend paying on assets. this could be income paying investments or good opportunities in terms of discounted assets. tracy: very quickly firas, we've been talking about the saudi bond all week. what is the next talking point
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for fixed investors in the region? firas: before year end we won't see a lot of excitement in this part of the world. they are going to take a bit of a breather. i think they are going to take a breather and reassess. after the elections and interest rate hike in december, there will be a different set of metrics. tracy: is your expectation for a potential interest rate rise? rise willerest rate always index emerging markets. to the lettertive appreciation. we will see that reflection in some of the market debt, particularly in asia. tracy: thank you so much for joining us. that was firas mallah, directing manager from bmo regional management. a lot for fixed investors to chew over. something we have not seen in seven months, turkey's central
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bank keeping its key interest rates on hold. the fallout from ankara next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tracy: the top stories on "bloomberg markets: middle east" at&t agreed to buy time warner for 84 point $5 billion creating a new media empire, valuing time warner at $107 and $.50 per share. time warner shareholders will get half of that in cash, and half and at&t stocks. cnn, andincludes hbo, warner bros. studios, allowing
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at&t to expand into media and entertainment as its wireless business matures. lawyers say the at&t-time warner deal could face antitrust hurdles. donald trump has promised to brock it if he becomes president. he says such media mergers leave too much power concentrated among too few companies. trump called for a breakup of the comcast, nbc deals. the fcc imposed seven years comes conditions to enron --to ensure rival pay-tv and could tververs could reach services. offsetting concerns in emerging markets about cheap oil and the future of global stimulus. the saudi bonds gained in the first tree of training, making more than $200 million for investors pumped $17.5 billion into the sale. bonds issued by neighboring states have jumped since saudi issued pricing guidance, while
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equities closed higher. turkey's central-bank has been lowering interest rates at every monthly meeting since march, but that trend came to an end as policymakers kept all three name rates on hold. for more here is our middle east reporter on the line from ankara. how did the bank halt its cutting cycle? what did it say in terms of an explanation? >> turkey's central-bank brought it record warm and comes to -- incomes after a rapid amount of depreciation, it wasn't unexpected movement. the majority of the economist -- the monetary policy makers said it was no time to keep producing interest rates. the lira slump was a damaging consumer inflation outlook. there also comes before the rate
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decision that lower interest rates were also waning. also political pressures seem to be hovering in the background in turkey. tell us more about that particular issue. onur: the turkish central bank has been pressured to revive the economy, which is in times of slowdown. certainly that pressure was very visible when the bank was cutting interest rates during the seven months since march. president erdogan's senior advisers cannot before the rate decision and said rate cuts should not be taken for granted, and that banks could spot them when it found global conditions merited such a decision. and while doing that, they both decided and unease about the level of trading. this is a clear sign that at
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least part of that administration is not comfortable with where the lira is trading. tracy: so what does this mean for the next interest rate decision from turkey? onus: according to most economist and investors that we spoke with, it is still probably too early to say the rate cut has come to a complete end. but it is clear that the turks are uncomfortable with the concurrency level and we will watch how the lira performs in need -- performs next month for rate decision training. tracy: thanks so much. checking in a now on the first word headlines from around the world. >> thinks tracy. cyber security analysts say nowhere targeting the internet of things may be to blame'fridays attack that took
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down some of the most popular websites. hackers launched a so-called ddos attack on internet provider dyne, using the dollars and dozens of malware devices. twitter, and the new york times among others were brought down u.s. corporations are seeing annual profit growth for the first time in six quarters. sec by attempting best s&p 500 companies grew by an average of 8% molester. the're expecting an end to best session since the financial crisis. they still remain cautious because of the upcoming presidential election and the threat of an interest rate hike. it is still having for its weakest performance of year. gdp rose 0.7% last quarter, but
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economists we surveyed are predicting just a 0.3% gain and the three-months since the decision to leave the eu. the pound has slumped 18%. estonia's prime minister says the u.k. cameraman remain a very important partner to the eu, in trade, politics, and defense. he told bloomberg television in brussels that the british government needs to decide what kind of relationship it once -- wants before negotiations on brexit begins. >> they say they want to leave, so we have to accept that are -- accept that. political, defense. britain is not leaving europe, it is leaving the european union, and it may remain of force of player in your.
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this is bloomberg. tracy: a former swedish prime minister has defended the european union in the wake of the u.k. spoke to leave single market. they also say that isolation is a rising concern after brexit, and with politicians around the world campaigning on anti-trade policies. >> i'm concerned we do see that. that we see a re-nationalization of politics and countries. that makes decision-making within the eu more cumbersome. this is a rising concern. so far, we haven't seen them having a major impact on the key policies. tracy: we have seen brexit
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happen. what can we actually do, given that there seems to be some distrust of supranational organizations, of politicians. what can europe due to fight back against those -- do to fight back against those isolationist tendencies? time, we have an increasing pressure from the outside to do more together, because the nationstates are too small to handle. we cannot do it alone. we have to require more firm political leadership from the different heads of states and heads of government that are meeting constantly in order to get more solid popular support. tracy: what about the eu as an organization? has it failed europe? >> i think it has been a spectacular success. what is happening is that it is
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facing a combination of challenges that were not foreseen. we have a meltdown of the labonte -- levant. we have the financial situation that is more demanding on the global level. this requires -- this requires more working together. some of these issues don't really lend themselves to sort of quick solutions. tracy: you mentioned immigration. sweden is known for a quite generous immigration policy. any talk about what impact that has had on the domestic political situation? among the more liberal policies, they have transformation. sweden has to tendencies -- we are more dynamic a nation
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than we were before. we have impressive growth figures. question,er hand, no there are some problems. we have a rising criminality. we have both sides of the coin. hasy: i don't think anyone a solution to those problems just yet, but what would you propose as a first step? they integration.ing is the numbers, if you look at them, are not necessarily that they. at the same time, we have structures and labor markets at all of those things, and that makes integration somewhat more demanding. here, we must do somewhat more in order to get people into our society come into the economy come into the education system, into the language faster than has been the case so far. otherwise, you have problems. tracy: we will hear more from
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the former prime minister and foreign minister of sweden next. his view of the u.s. election. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tracy: welcome back. you're watching bloomberg markets middle east. live from dubai, i am tracy alloway. let's get you some breaking news. saudi aramco is denied reports that it may bid on a refinery. there is a lot of interest in saudi aramco's every move. we will bring you more on that story as soon as we get it. round up ofquick the main stories from around the middle east. dubai's property market is bottoming out as buyers return with the emirates offering an alternative for investors
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worried about brexit. the chairman says that he thinks after sales over fell almost 30% through july. the market is maturing, drawing more investors rather than speculators. the oil price drop has led to a sink and property values throughout the gulf. energy ministers have arrived in saudi arabia ahead of this meeting. hope to hammer out country by country details on the agreement to cut output. meanwhile, venezuela's resident says the u.s. should be invited to the next full meeting in november to join the discussions on price stabilization. swiss watch exports to saudi arabia have longed in september, leaving international losses for an industry mired in its biggest slump on record. sales were down 59% from a year earlier.
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the slide is longer than after the financial crisis. hong kong saw the second worst contraction, 40% followed by the u.k. more now with my conversation with former swedish prime minister and foreign minister carl bildt. i asterisk for his use on the u.s. election campaign, especially the foreign policy of donald trump. of bildt: he was in favor what happened to him and then he was against it subsequently. that is a common view, by the way. he is not particularly ambivalent about russia. he seems to be more admiring of putin. he is an odd phenomenon. he does represent something in the united states. we should not ignore that. there is a sentiment that is angry at washington, that think that the united states is heading in the wrong direction,
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that once the united states be more assertive in different ways on the global stage. even if he loses, which looks the most likely, although you never know, those sentiments cannot be ignored. they will be influencing foreign policy for years to come. tracy: you are on the advisory council for the committee of the liberation of iraq. what is your feeling, when you hear donald trump say something like we should never have been in iraq? what is your response? since the first gulf war, when saddam hussein invaded kuwait, it was necessary to take them out. there was a continuous international involvement in iraq for quite some time, which had to do with the policies of the days. there is no question that the invasion and subsequent dismantling of the iraqi state was a major mistake, and we're dealing with the consequences as of today.
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tracy: let's pivot over to economics and monetary policy in particular. the swedish central bank is announcing its latest policy decision on thursday. they have pledged to do a lot buying up after third of nominal government bonds. there are concerns about a housing bubble. how do you view that risk? mr. bildt: there is a concern about a fairly high level of private debt. we don't have public debt problems, but we do have private debt problem. the central bank is maneuvering a fairly complicated landscape. i'm not enough of an expert to understand what is going on. i felt understand what a negative interest rate really is. i think that long-term is the way we can manage the economies. so far, so good. we have to deal with the risks that are there with the bubbles in the property market. tracy: the bank has also
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threatened to potentially intervene in the fx market. you are prime minister the last time they did such a thing. given your experience, do you think that is an appropriate measure now? mr. bildt: i would have to be skeptical. think that you have a floating currency. i think anything of between will be unlikely to be particularly successful. tracy: that was the former swedish prime minister and foreign minister, carl bildt. get feelings could be the key to a successful career. here more on that, next. my gut is currently telling me it is time for brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪
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-- welcomeome black
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back. life from dubai, i am tracy alloway. hasysian prime minister unveiled a budget that hints at the prospect of early elections. he announced billions in cash and grants to help lower income citizens and young people. they include cheaper housing, discounts on student loan repayments, and tax relief on smartphones and tablets. they're looking to boost growth and shore up the voter base after a year of political turmoil and financial scandals. mark mobius says a three-year rally for indian small-cap stocks may extend farther, and growing interest rates are heading down. mobile app says india is in a very sweet spot. templeton emerging markets group has made into a top pick on investing as much as $2 billion in its equitie hasa's billionaire jack ma
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some advice for the nation's top security bureau. he is proposing using big data to prevent crime. in a televised speech, he said clock, armal to buy a pressure cooker and even gunpowder, but it is not normal to buy them altogether. big data would help government notice suspicious transactions and take preemptive steps. investors who are into with their heartbeat make more money. that is occurring to neuroscientists and former wall street trader john coates. he says success is down to gut feelings, and reading one's own body signals. we're why logical creatures. it is inconceivable we could make it any other way. what we are doing in our research projects, what i have been doing since leaving the street, is just looking at the effect of the state of our body on how we perform in trading.
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when you put it like that, it is inconceivable it could be any other way. how much sleep you get determines how focused you could be the next day. in economics and finance, we have not looked at the effect of our bodies on our ability to perform in the market. that [inaudible] could it be superstition or gut instinct? >> one of the first thing that happens in your brain and body when you receive a piece of information is that your brain prepares your body. one of the first signals is actually changes in your body. there is a sort of silent part of your brain that is doing that or it is a good risk manager. if there is something wrong in your portfolio, your body is being prepared for danger. that is the nature of gut
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feelings. just kind of the way we are built. >> houck that's how else can it become slated through? a headache? >> sure. probably every tissue near body is being effected -- your cardiovascular system, your bones, your heart, your muscles, your immune system. each person varies in which system their most aware of. for some people, they may be aware they are breathing faster. other people like george soros feel it in her muscles in their lower back. i personally am a stomach first and. -- stomach person. when there was something wrong on wall street, i would voice feeling in my stomach. >> was a heartbeat sensitivity test about? >> physiologists and psychiatrists have been looking for tests for how sensitive people are too sensitive's coming from the body.
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-- our two signals coming from the body. that is quite civil your ability times yourw many heart has beat within a fixed. of a time. -- a fixed period of time. if you look at all the factors that go into a successful career , you could probably list a couple dozen factors. experience on its own big one of those. thatre looking at a couple haven't been looked at before, and that is in this latest study we published -- our ability to sense gut feelings or changes in our bodies. >> is gender specific, right? men and women react differently? >> in some circumstances, yes.
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in the ability to sense cap feelings, there is no difference. ofwhat about the balance fitness? fitterter people -- people, their ability to sense these feelings increased the lower your bmi was, the lower your resting heart rate was. that was neuroscientists and former wall street trader john coates speaking to has haslinda amin. we are about one hour away from the opening of the emirates market, dubai, and abu dhabi. a reminder now of how markets last closed. we had dubai up and i would be and qatar down. we have two big bank results do today -- due today.
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tadawulat the towel -- in saudi arabia, some optimism after the record bond sales very -- bond sales. israeli stocks basically unchanged. let's take a quick check of how the energy markets closed on friday. uphave both brent and wti .78% for the benchmark brent crude, and .43% for u.s. oil futures. before we go, i want to show you one more chart that has to do with the treasury chart i showed you at the top of the show. this is inflation expectations. these are market-based measures of expectations. it has been taking up recently. it is interesting that we have this fed president on friday talking about how the fed might look past its 2% target.
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at the end of this week, we will also get the university of michigan in patients survey -- inflation survey.
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