tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg October 24, 2016 12:00pm-3:31pm EDT
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we are covering stories from london to new york to moscow. deals galore on this monday. we dig into the regulatory hurdles that lie ahead for at&t. hillary clinton urging swing state and undecided voters to reject congressional candidates in an effort to retake the senate. greg norman speaks about his brand and how it is beyond golf. julie hyman is with us with the latest. some green on the screen in light of deals. helpingefinitely contribute to sentiment and the boost in stocks. even though some of the individual components of these deals are not rising, overall we vieweeing a lift on the
that some companies are seeing value out there. earnings are still continuing as well. .ll three major averages up the nasdaq doing the best today. take a look at some of the biggest cap technology shares. companies alone, apple, alphabet, amazon, microsoft contributing a third of the games. three of these are out with earnings this week. we are seeing some optimism heading into those reports. percentagewise, if you look at the individual stocks on the rise today, it is performance reasons. be aerospace being acquired by rockwell collins, $62 a share. t-mobile out with earnings that beat estimates. the company subscriber growth was more than 100,000 more than
anticipated by analysts. being upgraded to overweight. i also must document what's happening in the bond market. if you look at the 10-year note in the u.s., a big climb directionally. gave us the measure of the purchasing managers index coming in better than expected. that drove yields up three basis points to 1.77%. contrast that with what we have been seeing happening around the globe and other sovereign debt. a bit of a selloff in germany. up to basis points. japanese sovereign government debt unchanged. one phenomenon that has been going on, we have seen a near explosion in demand for long-dated debt. changeoks at the annual
in the face value of sovereign debt around the globe, longer-dated sovereign debt, 10 years or more maturity. this year, compared to the past decade, the huge demand we have seen. some investors now concerned that now everyone has piled in, if not a bubble, at least getting a little overextended. it will be interesting to watch these maturities. vonnie: thank you. let's check in on the first word news with mark crumpton. republican political strategist karl rove does not believe donald trump can be elected president. he told fox news, i don't see it happening. he says even if trump wins the battleground states of ohio and florida, it will not be enough. he played a major role in george 's campaigns.
hillary clinton spend an active million dollars -- an extra million dollars in two states where she does not expect to win. she believes that it could help democrats win the senate and house races. u.s. forces are advancing in basel to take it from the islamic state. months.nsive may take it involves more than 25,000 in iraq troops and airplanes and advisers from the us-led coalition. british prime minister theresa brexit negotiating stance is no clearer after a meeting with leaders of scotland, wales, and northern ireland. here she is today in london. i know of nothing now about the u.k.'s negotiating strategies that i did not know before the meeting started. we need to see a u.k. government that is willing to open up and involve us meaningfully.
governments have expressed concerns about the economic damage caused by brexit. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. time now for our deals report. m&ay monday we zero in on business. today we are looking at at&t's proposed takeover of time warner. it is the biggest announced takeover this year and could kick off our new round of industry consolidation. you to give us some context is jeff mccracken and alex sherman. this, reading the stories about this, it was hatched in various stages. it did seem to move rather
quickly. what is the timing? >> part of it was that at&t could get this done without being interrupted. there were only about eight people involved in the deals, from our understanding. depending on who you believe, they were planning on announcing this deal monday. we broke the story on thursday. it had gotten all the way almost until the end until we came up with the news. of it is simple to make sure nobody comes in by time warner other than at&t. whether that is google or apple or comcast, who else may be interested, at&t wanted to get it locked up, and then it would make it more difficult to come over the top because you would then have to involve breakup fees. the other part of it, at&t wants to be bold. they bought directv. they have been bolder than verizon, who bought aol.
big bet fromecond at&t to get in front of this new mobile video world. tell usjeff mccracken, about randall stephenson and these 45 companies that he has. dropped about $45 billion for directv 18 months ago. he has been a deal junkie in some ways. at&t, in general, has bought a lot of companies. it used to be that they would buy their rivals. now they are expanding. directv and now time warner. they were being very aggressive, worried that apple or google would come along. a bid a fewly made months ago, it was reported that they were interested. now he is paying a 40% premium. the deal was announced this week. this is donald trump on the
campaign trail not wasting much time talking about this. >> they are trying desperately to suppress my vote and the voice of the american people. as an example of the power structure, at&t is buying time warner and cnn, a deal that we will not approve in my administration because it is too much concentration of power in the hands of too few. david: what do you make of that, jeff? there is a question of whether the fcc will take it up. what does this deal face? >> weather donald trump gets elected or not, it will face a lot of skepticism. hillary clinton has said she is against the deal, bernie sanders has said he would try to block the deal. this is a lot like what happened with nbc and comcast. regulators could have pushed them more, forced the visitors
or agreements that would've made life more difficult for comcast. you could see that in this deal. vonnie: what could at&t divest? >> i think it will be more about what they will allow their rivals to do. will they allow time warner to be sold to other companies, what will they do when other people are trying to sell them content? that is going to be the question. would they ever block people from the time warner content? david: what could happen next? john malone has been buying up a lot of stuff. what does the space look like to you, could we see a north-south connection? >> we are still waiting for that. we have not seen that. think that is maybe a little far off.
in the more intermediate, you could see comcast going after t-mobile after the spectrum auctions are over. comcast has been hesitant on doing anything big after its deal with time warner cable was blocked. in a new administration, perhaps they try again. perhaps it will be a difficult road no matter if it is trumped or hillary clinton. is possible, it that charter starts buying content. john malone has stakes in the new lions gate company, a stake in discovery. could that be rolled up with charter to have a more vertically integrated company? possible. vonnie: can randall stephenson run a studio? >> i think time warner can operate as an independent within , with a hands-off approach. i'm not sure that randall stephenson wants to run a studio, per se. as long as he is fine with time warner running itself, i don't
see any particular conflict that would prevent that from happening. degree is the comcast playbook the one that regulators and companies are looking at when they look at the next 15 months ahead? >> the comcast playbook is what at&t will be rolling out to regulators, because it was approved. to by time warner cable, and that was blocked. so there is some precedent that could make life difficult for at&t. david: thank you so much, alex sherman and jeff mccracken. you will be sticking around a bit. of next guest is the head north american m&a for jp morgan. ♪
david: this is bloomberg markets. vonnie: we continue our deals report. it has been such a busy weekend. not only do we have one of the biggest deal announcements of the year between at&t and time warner, but we have a number of deals across the spectrum from aerospace to finance. jeff mccracken will break it down with us. he is standing by with one of the most influential m&a anu aiyengar from jp morgan she works on a variety of recentlycluding the announced 25% stake of helton. -- hilton. >> welcome.
busy weekend. obviously, we have answer the question on whether there was concern over the election but we had over $100 billion in deals announced sunday and monday. you were on three of them. time warner, at&t -- >> saturday. rockwell collins, be aerospace, and then hilton this morning. we normally talk about merger mondays. this was a merger weekend bonanza and we are happy to have represented them. let's start with the at&t deal p1 is going on in the media, telecom landscape that has at&t willing to spend $85 billion for time warner? what is going on with the disney's and the googles? >> in some ways, all of these deals have the same underlying theme. they are all completely different industry sectors.
one is media telecom, the other is aerospace, the other is real estate. the common driver in all of them is the need for growth. people are thinking much more creatively about growth. in the case of at&t time warner you have a convergence of telecom and distribution. people talk about i want to get the same content across multiple just a vision channels. in some ways, this deal creates the ability for the perfect feedback loop. you get to get people's reaction from multiple channels, tv, mobile, broadband, and use that in terms of content generation. it may be a little bit thinking out of the box, but in some ways , when you are in this type of market where you are really looking for growth, and that growth can be facilitated by robust equity capital markets as well as debt capital markets, and you are able to deliver that
through nontraditional combinations -- you and i have talked about this convergence you see that across multiple sectors were people are no longer thinking about horizontal deals and instead making bolder moves in terms of vertical integration. this is one such example. most of the other media company stocks have been up since friday, a little bit today. , lot of questions appropriately so, has the bar been raised in terms of what it means for scale, what doesn't mean for having a complete product suite to deliver? at&t has raised the bar on that. jeff: you worked on the h in a deal buying hilton from blackstone. dealss done a number of in the united states, a chinese company, but they bought pearls and hotels last year. what is their view of the leisure space of what's
happening in the united states? is an interesting company, in some ways representative of what a global company is today, a fortune 500 company, they happen to have origins in china. people,e 200,000 distributed a third in asia, a third in europe, a third in the u.s. when you look at with the china market represents in terms of isrism and hospitality, it 120 million people. last year, their spend was approaching $300 billion. in the past six years, the growth has been about 17% in terms of the number of people representing out of bound tourism. that is a huge opportunity. when you look at how penetrated it is, it's still a small percentage of what you would see in terms of the tour is a market in the rest of the western hemisphere. jeff: have the chinese in
general gotten better at m&a? we have seen a huge burst of outbound deals from chinese companies. have they figured out the cultural elements, financial elements than they had a few years ago? >> there is a little bit of a divergence from companies like hna who have done a lot of deals , as opposed to a first-time acquirer. for people who have already done deals, certainly, the comfort, understanding of the u.s. public markets, understanding of the timeline of what it means to have a u.s. deal is certainly better than it was when they first came onto the market. that is only natural. as you do more deals, you better understand the timeline, what you are required to hit and the deadlines you are required to hit. what's also interesting, you see more number of minority deals happening, in terms of chinese buyers into the u.s. jeff: so these chinese companies
are buying 20% of a company? >> exactly. what are the things you are looking for? there are certain industries and sectors that chinese companies have been focused on in the united states. there is an underlying demographic imperative, whether it is technology or real estate or consumer retail companies, those are sectors that chinese companies have been focused on. as you look at that and say, are they looking to come in here and change management teams, change the way you do business? it is really that they are looking for market-leading attractive opportunities in the u.s. often times, including the hna hilton deal, they look at her world-class company like helton, they look at a world-class ceo, and they say that is a company i want to invest in. when you look at it that way, minority deals allow you to achieve the strategic objectives in a way that is consistent with
the way that you are buying in, because it's a great team. anu. thank you, a heck of a monday already. vonnie: thank you, jeff mccracken and anu aiyengar. david: it may not be all about donald trump anymore. the shifting political map is giving hillary clinton the opportunity to fight other pose. this is bloomberg. ♪
focusing on candidates farther down the ballot. she is putting more money on the races, what does it mean when shiftsres focus -- focus? >> she has been helping the democratic party raise money but this weekend she came out full force, very vocal, namely senators, talking about their opponents, tying them to donald trump. or the first time, given her full throated support to those down ballot candidates. there are two reasons to do this . she feels more comfortable in the race. the campaign says that they are not taking anything for granted but she is feeling more comfortable. by doing this, she projects the feeling that she is more comfortable, projects that my race is over, i can start to help my party. that gives a sense of inevitability, a sense for voters that the race may be over, you don't have to turn out. a little bit of psychological
warfare going on as well. she still absolutely need to florida and north carolina. is there any danger in these states? >> these are huge for both candidates, more so for donald trump. he has to win those. she could lose one of those, maybe both -- she doesn't want to lose either. today is a big day in florida. donald trump is there, tim kaine is there. early voting started. democrats are huge proponents of this early voting. they are good at getting their voters out, banking in the votes, and it pays off -- at least it has in the last to the new elections. ared: the candidates beginning to make their closing arguments. i cannot believe it. what is donald trump saying? still some comments about the election being rigged. >> there was a big buildup about this speech on saturday in gettysburg, his campaign billed
it as his pitch to the nation, his first 100 days what he would do. they framed it in the same way as newt gingrich's contract for america. there was a big buildup, he got up there and talked about policies we have mostly heard of before, and started off the whole thing by talking about the rigged election, how the polls are against him, and that he was going to sue his accusers once the election was over. you get the sense talking to his campaign that that was not a take away they wanted, the message they wanted to get across. david: thank you, steve. vonnie: 15 days away from the election. how will it change election dynamics going forward? we will speak to the man who coined the phrase bond vigilante. this is bloomberg. ♪
let's start with headlights from first word news. mark c.: hillary clinton hitting the campaign trail with one of her most effective surrogates, michelle obama. they will make their first joint appearance on thursday at a north carolina. tweeted today that polls were created to suppress his support. he did not provide any evidence to support his claim. european officials are trying to break an impasse over a trade deal between the european union and canada. the problem, objections by the french-speaking region of belgium. >> eu officials are trying to break the deadlock. the european commission is warning that they need to remain patient if an agreement is to
be struck. just an true is waiting to see if he needs to cancel his trip to sign the agreement in europe on thursday. mark c.: the national transportation safety board will investigate what is being called one of the deadliest threats and california's history. 13 people were killed and 31 others injured early sunday when a casino bus, returning from los angeles, slammed into a semi truck in palm springs. traffic near the site had been slowing to allow utility workers to string wires across the freeway. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. a quick check now on u.s. majors. as you can see, of the of a reversal. the dow is up.
the s&p 500, thanks to telecommunications and energy, a little bit lower than its highest. nevertheless, all other sectors are higher. the nasdaq, the big winner of today is up 8/10 of 1%. let's get the two toes -- details now from abigail doolittle. abigail: we certainly do have a nice rally going on today. the gains are really outpacing those of the dow. lots of technology strength. t-mobile up sharply. 28 points per share. it looked like behind us, the scriber rose. we go and look at the bloomberg.
this shows the scriber ad for t-mobile in white. there is a trend. the company seems to expect us to continue. they believe the new monthly subscribers are likely to rise. 3.9 range between 3.7 and million for the year. you still have all of these shares trading on a discount which takes into account the debt. t-mobile may be a good one to keep an eye on. another winner, comcast. see big multiples. she is saying they believe comcast could become a one-stop shop for all things consumers.
potentiala 20% upside seen for the shares of comcast. thank you for that. david: fears of a meltdown .ontinue t money managers are holding the highest cash levels in more than 10 years. levels just went that short for the first time since april. it is great to have you here. bigme ask you about the announcement today. maybe stepping back, what does it say about the media space and the market were generally? think, when we look at the bull market, since 2009, the real driving force behind it has been corporations buying back shares. for the past year or so, we have
seen them buying shares of other companies. this has mostly to do with the fact that interest rates are historically low. it is hard to find revenue growth all by yourself. you merge and acquire somebody else thinking you can cut costs or vertical integration, whatever. come into office, you have to do something. i think something's will not make sense whatsoever. the reality is this megadeal ,nnouncement today with at&t the two presence of candidates have already said this will not pass. there is sort of a negative component here if washington for us to come down hard on mna. vonnie: can they keep the stock market propped up? >> i think anybody betting against this bull market is betting against central banks. they have more money to spend .hen any of the rest of us have the ecb is still buying
corporate bonds. the bank of japan is still buying also took securities. only the fed has been the outlier here, talking about raising interest rates. it will be gradual, gentle, don't worry, not too rapid. interest rates are still historically low, near zero. david: let's go back to last week. the notion of bond scarcity did not come up. how worried are you about that scarcity? >> i think you are already starting to see, in the body language and the actual language, the understanding by central banks that they are running out of ammo. 'sthink that is the ecb problem. you can almost hear a tone of, please help us. it gets into the whole mother ball of life.
rates nearerest zero, that makes stock and bond options look appealing. year yield, is30 this a wise place to be? >> i don't know about 30 year. look, i don't think inflation will make a comeback. i think there is way too much competition on a global basis. despite all the backlash against globalization, i think they will survive. the reality is, consumers really benefit from it. david: you mentioned the prospect of shutting off global trade. how do you process the rhetoric from the campaign? doesn't seem like something that
is just exclusive to the campaign trail? >> you kind of hope there is noise. the stock market is near the all-time high, despite all the noise. that has not been pleasant always to listen to. i hope it is not too good. look at how well the stock market has done in washington. i think, the reality is, it has been a lot more important than policy makers. trump has a radically different policy proposal than clinton does. you know, what everyone is trying to figure out who is better for the economy, both can be bad. vonnie: in the meantime, markets can have their own say. where do markets go from here? >> i'm inclined to think 1.5-2 percent.
i think inflation is going to stay low. i think the fed will stay very liberal with its policies. i think 1.5-2 percent for the 10 year, the stock market, the s&p goes to 2300, 2400 by the end of next year. i think the earnings recession is over. david: here we are in the middle of earnings season. what is your sense of it so far? inthe expectation coming from analysts was that it would be down a little bit. all of a sudden, they probably got the magnitude right. that will be the beginning of a better comparison, if nothing else because one year ago it was pretty miserable. vonnie: who is buying u.s. treasuries? is it still in comparison europe, for example. today, we saw spain's tenure go to 1%. just in terms of divergence,
where do you see value? >> i think you make a good point, we are still looking at interest rates much lower. there is obviously a currency issue for anyone who wants to invest in our markets. when you look at the data, you find that some of the biggest buyers have accident the banks. the banks of them building up -- has been loading up. they are not fighting on the may opportunities to lend money out. they don't have to go to the bank. the banks are buying them. i think individuals are still buying. there is still a reach for yield going on. david: in that reach for yield, what are you looking at in the u.s. and europe right now? where are you looking? stretch.ally have to i guess, saudi arabia. vonnie: there is a great story
on venezuela on the bloomberg today. my pitch, through the bull market is stay home, rather than global global -- go global. with the s&p 500, you are already investing globally. i don't want to take a lot of risk. inclined to stay here. innie: the fed moves december. >> i think so. it is one and done per year. i think so. vonnie: president and chief investment strategist. thank you for joining us. david: coming up am a greg norman, we speak to him about his brand and how it is evolving beyond golf. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: you're watching bloomberg. i am vonnie quinn. global: this is your business report. now that at&t and time warner have announced their big deal, the question is will regulators approve it. at&t is arguing the industry structure will not change. vonnie: more fallout from the brexit fold and the plunging pound. raising some key products by as much as 23%. mark b.: in today's quick take, the power of ladner putin. why he is holding on to his popularity despite the country's economic challenges. buyie: at&t has agreed to time warner.
more than 85 million dollars. the ceo of at&t spoke about the megamerger on a conference call. >> time warner is the global leader in media entertainment. the brands that we all know and love from game of thrones to .uperman, just to name a few hands down, time warner has the best created tell in the industry. mark b.: microsoft tried for the u.k.. they better brace themselves for a price hike. they are raising the price of their software and cloud service . the reason? the big drop in the pound and the vote to leave the eu. fallen from japan have for the 12 month in a row. fromeas shipments are down
a year earlier. a group of pilots of american airlines wants to give up their 53-year-old independent union. they're hoping to merge thank you you with the larger pilots association. they want better pay and benefits. vonnie: time now for our bloomberg quicktake, where we provide context and background on issues of interest. the most popular politician in russia is among the west's most rivaled. calls by a collapse in oil prices and financial and energy sanctions provoked by the ukraine. his popularity has hardly been dented, at least so far. go for ands to
election once again, his approval ratings have fallen slightly. still, they are at a remarkably high level. opposition parties argue that the vote is welcomed there. he honed his survival skills as a deprived child in leningrad. his mother barely surprised -- survived. in 1889, as a spy in east germany, he was forced to destroy documents. when communism collapsed, he switched his public allegiance to the orthodox church. here is the argument. he wants describes the collapse of the soviet union as the
greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 21st century. he sees himself as a guardian of russia's unique place in the world. his trunk approval ratings constituentshis take a similar view. despite his popularity, the longest recession in two decades pulling support. the question is whether he can retain his image as russia's protector. ,ou can read more about russia vladimir putin, and all of the quick takes on the bloomberg. ♪
style, greg norman was the number one golfer in the world in the 1980's in the 1990's. a turned his success in two popular brand, all names, the great white shark hearing he now has a partnership with verizon. he sat down with matt miller about evolving his brand beyond golf. >> i had to get away from the sports because i would not be playing professional golf forever. i had to transition away. it's not such an easy transition . my platform is very, very solid. i invested in business. i have joint injury partnerships, i have licensing deals. my platform was very, very broad, but all golf-based, to some degree. by shifting the needle over, i can look into long-term. >> you have incredibly diverse
set of proposals already. you have a great share of the australian wine market and do winds in argentina, california. you have gotten into agriculture. then, private equity and venture capital. that seems so complex and difficult. how was it getting into the financial side of things? >> very simple, actually. in 2008, a lot of these financial businesses could not get investment capital to grow. my partnert it and and i started investing. we were getting tremendous returns. no question about it. it was really an asset based lending fund. that is how we started off. if they defaulted, you into the the company. we do not want to be operators. we just wanted to be facilitators, letting capital get into the business. we invested and maybe half a dozen of these businesses. we sat back and took a deep
breath and said, what can we do? can we bring our friends and family and to benefit? low and behold, we had people wanting to go with us. all of a sudden, people were investing money with us. there is today. what we have today is an investment opportunity. now, it is starting to broaden out. the run rate has been really good for the last eight years. we will produce the run rate for another eight years. now, you have institutions looking at you saying, they are getting these returns in the high teens and 20's. some of them we have had in the 40's. when you show them the proof of that, you will get accepted and looked at by the boo big boys on wall street. verizonill partner with doing something that people may not expect. how will that work?
>> i see a massive opportunity ag tech and golf courses. when you look at it, how can we use this technology to help with water and fertilization. the overhead on golf courses can run anywhere in between 2.5 and five million dollars per year. if you can help them manage that process, skinny that down, all of a sudden, golf courses get healthier so the amount of dues paid by memberships may come down a bit. we need to start thinking about what is that disposable income, how will we use it h? how will we get golfers back into the game? not the baby boomers what the millennials. my partnership with verizon will be just that. >> why choose the u.s.? you live here in florida.
could live anywhere. you could start your business anywhere. why here? >> when i first played the game of golf, to me, america was the haven where i wanted to go. the best players are here today to some degree. when i was honing my skills, this is where i wanted to be. if i could be the best on the home turf, it meant my credentials were >> pretty good. what you think about the state of america now? we're just ahead of a big election, incredibly partisan feeling in this country, perhaps more than ever. >> i travel so much. across the board, why is america humiliating it felt? why is there anger?
this different approach to the election. i will say this. no matter who is in there, america and the american people are the most resilient in the world. great of been through times from the internet to the real estate boom. they are very, very resilient. david: that was our colleague speaking with greg norman. if i could be the best onfor mor the finest things in life. just go to the bloomberg. still ahead, roger ferguson joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: welcome to "bloomberg markets." from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we are covering stories from seattle to new york and london. minutes, we will speak with tia president and ceo roger ferguson on the state of retirement savings for americans and why there is an overreliance on 401k's. and as banks consider relocating elsewhere in europe, the european central bank is thinking about how to manage an influx. and we hear from t-mobile ceo john legere on the company's earnings and what he thinks about the at&t time warner deal. halfway into the monday trading day you julie hyman has been keeping an eye on stocks. julie: off the highs of the session at the moment. the dow and s&p have been to .4%,to about a third
but the nasdaq has been the leader. some of the tech-heavy weights set to report this week. facebook, by the way, touching a record high. a lot of strength within technology. the biggest single drag is energy stocks. i have a chart of the s&p 500 on the bloomberg versus oil prices. the s&p is in white, oil in yellow. one-to-one correlation, but this is definitely the biggest drag. you facing questions about whether it will be subject to any theoretical opec production freeze or production cut agreement. iraq arguing it should not be subject to that because it is fighting islamic extremists on its soil. this is the effect on oil today, off by 1% in u.s. trading. another thing affecting today is
, it rose to a one-year high, coming in above what analysts were anticipating. so in addition to the dealnews with at&t and time warner, the earnings we have been talking about with t-mobile, there is also economic data. you can see strength and manufacturing as a result. whirlpool, bowling an example of that. but the strength is not universal today. take a look. rockwell automation is lower. there had been reports surfacing on friday that schneider of france might be interested in rockwell, but the company telling us there is no truth to that rumor. collins, the two split in 2001. rockwell has been the upper former here. down 6% today after agreeing to purchase b/e aerospace.
even though we are seeing positive commentary on this deal, rockwell still selling off today. david: thank you. on the firstheck word news with mark crumpton. mark: janet yellen will likely resist pressure to step down it donald trump is elected president. that is according to people that have known her for years. they describe speculation in the financial markets as to the contrary, as off-base. the president is endorsing another 30 candidates in 13 states for seats in the house of representatives today, according to politico, which says the effort is part of a push to win down ballot seats lost during his presidency. they also say mr. obama has taped for robocalls to
be going out to homes. beenolice officers have wounded but their injuries are not considered life-threatening. one person was arrested and a second suspect allegedly stole a patrol car and remains missing. man police have arrested a in connection with a suspected chemical incident that forced the evacuation of 500 people friday at london's city airport. the man is charged with suspicion of using a noxious substance to cause serious damage and offense. he was released on bail after a three-our investigation and the terminal was declared safe. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. thank you. tia a ceo roger ferguson has
been rebranding and expanding the retirement plan an insurance provider formally known as tiaa-cref. he is featured in bloomberg 2017, the year had issue. he is with us now in new york. roger ferguson, thanks for joining. are we facing a retirement crisis, and if so, how far off is this? >> i would say we are facing a retirement challenge that if or not cable -- careful can become a crisis. we know that too few people have saved for retirement and we know that they are focused on only the asset allocation and not the payout. clearly, we know the demographics are not our friend here. an aging population around the world, and a much smaller number of millennials ready to support the aging baby boomers. david: you say people have not saved for retirement and what are the factors contributed to
that, lack of education, lack of ability to do that, low rates? >> the answer is yes. certainly, financial literacy here is remarkably low across all generations. much worse frankly for minorities and some women than for others. place where it has become difficult for many people to save. in fact, it is estimated that we are many trillion short of retirement savings. in the current environment, with low interest rates, as people are getting closer to retirement, that is putting an action depressing factor on it. vonnie: when you wake up, it is partially your job to combat this for your own clients. what on earth do you do? do you want to roll over and go back to bed? >> i'm happy to go to work every day. first of all, my company is different. tiaa has been providing safe and secure retirements for over 100
years. our participants who are better educated tend to save more, and importantly, we are providing the chance to get income to and through a retirement. different.s slightly as i think about it more broadly for the nation, it's a question of reinforcing and encouraging people to take action. one of the big concerns we may have is because we are talking about this as a retirement crisis, people may throw up their hands and do nothing. it is never too late to start to save. vonnie: what is your rate of return assumption right now at tiaa and you for the nation more broadly? >> we don't have to worry about a rate of return assumption. we are not driving a type of plan. we attempt to get the best risk-adjusted rate over time by having a broadly diversified port olio. when you look at our mutual funds, two thirds of our assets are morningstar 4 or 5.
we have the best risk-adjusted return for the last four years in a row. we are not driving around rate of return assumption but we are looking at good return over the cycle. vonnie: i wonder how much demographics play into this. david: we have talked about demographic issues in japan, also happening now in the u.s., when it comes to saving and what you see, how are those trends playing? >> you look at japan as an example. first, you have the aging population. in the 1950's, we had about 16 workers for every retired person. right now, that number is about 2.8 workers for every retired person. to-1 inll go down to 2- the next few decades. demographics are also playing a role because productivity seems to have slowed across countries. there is a real question to what
degree that has been driven by demographics. currently, the question of the labor force, for example, how many are leaving the labor force. that is also a demographic story. demographics play across the entire spectrum around savings, productivity, the viability of social security, and what we can expect for productivity growth in the future. vonnie: will it 25 basis point rate increase help, will a 50 basis point increase help? higher rates would help to some degree. a steeper yield curve would help to some degree. if those are associated with a couple of other things. first, that the economies themselves are moving rapidly enough so that a small increase in rates does not allow the projections around corporate earnings, for example. or the rising equity valuations. for many folks, it is both equity and fixed income.
we would be better off with a higher and more normally shaped yield curve consistent with good growth prospects. vonnie: when will they the case in the u.s. -- that be the case in the u.s.? federal reserve right now is debating the rates they control by, one presumes, 25 basis points. the market is expecting some small action in december, but the fed has been clear, even if they start to raise rates, it will be a gradual and slow process. reflective of how much slack is left in the labor force and also that we have relatively low inflation right now. david: from where you sit, you must pay attention to the hedge fund space. we have seen a lot of introspection there, beginning structure.te fee what is the future outlook for hedge funds in terms of how they can exist? >> i believe hedge funds will
continue to be an important asset class. investing can be very cyclical. obviously, in an environment of low interest rates, equity markets rallying, other asset classes doing well, real estate, many hedge funds have been focused on a volatility trade, and there is less volatility in the markets right now. having said that, they will be forced to rethink the compensation model. 2 and 20 may not last forever, particularly as institutional investors want to move in another direction. there will be hedge funds as an acid going forward. their performance will be up and down, reflecting a lot of forces, including the absence of volatility, but i think the 2 and 20 model will need to be re-examined. vonnie: what is your prescription for the next president? whoever it is, they will likely preside over a generation of retirees, even if it is later than typical. >> there are three or four
things that the next administration needs to think about. this macro question of why productivity growth seems to have slowed. it is not just in the u.s. but other places as well. is there a macro policy solution that may drive that? around things like education and infrastructure investment. that is a question. second the question in the retirement space is how one thing's about social security. so, thethat by 2034 or trustees say the system will be more overpaid as you go, that the fund itself will be depleted. so a question of how you resolve that. do you think about changing retirement age? not everyone is supportive. perhaps you think about increasing the amount of money associated with social security taxes. and that is the second question in the retirement space. those are some things that had come forward in the next administration. vonnie: is there a better
nominee for retirees right now? >> both parties have been relatively quiet around this, compared to everything else that they have talked about. hillary clinton, i think, has been a lot more forthcoming on what she may do with social security. she has been clear about not wanting to move the retirement age but may thinking about a tax approach. fair, both parties will have to hone in on this as they get focused on it. david: you spent your career on the east coast. now you are on the west coast with your seat on the alphabet board of directors. what sense do you bring back here -- in other words, what have you learned alphabet that affects you here, are you happy with how alphabet has cleaved itself in two? >> most people in the marketing the creation of alphabet, the ability to understand what's happening with google versus more clarity around the other
so-called debts is a positive move. the market is appreciative of the financial discipline that has come in with the new cfo. many positive things have happened. the new phone they introduced seems to be playing very well. the stock seems to go up. the markets are giving alphabet and its leadership a lot of positive stories. what one brings back to the east coast, obviously, the dynamism, the desire to continue to be disruptive. frankly, in my space, not so much alphabet or google, per se, but broadly, the focus on fin tech. vonnie: you made an acquisition, but that will not solve the u.s. productivity problems. yet.t there is a question as to why all of this advancement has not move the productivity needle. there are many who say, earlier
versions of technology seem to have driven productivity improvement. we have not seen it yet. there are some that debate that maybe we are not measuring it correctly. most of us think that we have not seen the payout of the full technology investments that are existing right now. that is thes hope case. roger ferguson, thank you for joining. up, we dig into what analysts are expecting tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪
signs of revenue growth. cory johnson is here with more. i imagine what has been happening with samsung is a huge source of momentum. corey: that is a big x factor. -- ipple seven plus wouldn't be surprised if we start to get the stores about what happened at samsung, that the rush to beat apple was the reason that they risk these problems with the phone. that may not have been the case, but it looks to be that way. they rush to fix the problem when they could not fix it, and that led to the recall. the real question is apple getting into the market later. onlyphone 7 and seven plus had a short market during the callow -- calendar third quarter. so maybe the benefit will not accrue until tonight, but the iphone guidance, with the new
release of the phone is crucial. that is the most important thing to look for in this report. vonnie: show us what is on your terminal right now. we need to show everyone. these are the models. this is just what i do. your screen does not look like that? every terminal looks like that. you have the trade by apple here. i spent a lot of time building this. this is a scattergram. this is how i track momentum stocks. these are crummy company doing well for the day. vonnie: what is the next silicon valley story? i really think the apple
quarter is so important. the biggest factor driving everything in technology has been the growth of smartphones. we are seeing this global slowdown. i put some charts together that the slowdown worldwide that we have seen in phones and how that is affecting the markets. we went from growing smartphones 28% down to 10%. we expect that to be single digits in 2016. the biggest driver of growth is china. the china growth of cell phones is down to 1% in 2015. slowdown. at the same time, you have apple releasing major products. that makes the guidance that we get from apple so important tomorrow. that will tell us what is happening. demanded miss market share in terms of the number of phones sold but they have the
majority of profits in the business, so that is why that report will be so important. david: thank you, cory johnson. vonnie: still ahead, brexit banks face another challenge in the process of relocating. this time getting approval for their internal risk models. more on their requirements. this is bloomberg. ♪
david: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. begin toin the u.k. consider moving operations, officials are starting to rent their heads around one key hurdle. internaluthorizing risk models used to calculate capital requirements. so why are these formula so important, and what could happen if a bank does not get approved?
with us in on iran is now. talk about why this is so important with european banks. >> this is all international capital regulations, which a lot of people know by now. banks in europe have calculated their calculated requirements. in the u.s., we are a little behind. in europe, they have been ahead. , since have discovered
since 2010, the u.s. and europe, and even within europe, regulators have different methods of improving models. when the u.s. or asian banks, or british banks try to move operations to other parts of europe, they need to get licenses. brexit means they have to get new licenses from european regulators, then they are not going to have -- they have to, with new formulas and get them approved. this could be a delaying issue for the banks as they move. david: i thought we had these basil agreements, regulatory standards. how does this not fall into that? >> although the rules are very international, they are implemented very nationally. as europe is trying to unify its bank regulation under the ecb, they have realized the difference between national regulators is a lot of differences. this is part of that.
has done itsmittee own study, looked at the differentiation in these models. there is a huge gap between different countries and how their models bring up risk. germany, france. everybody has a different way of looking at these things. the same types of assets, the same loans that you make to a carmaker in your country can get a different type of risk weighting. that changes how you do your model, how you get your capital. fascinating. we will keep our eye on your pieces. more "bloomberg markets." this is bloomberg. ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. david: i'm david gura. mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. there is a report that a top clinton ally donated money to someone who was an fbi official who investigated the clinton e-mail scandal. virginia governor terry mcauliffe gave almost half $1 million to jill mccabe's unsuccessful senate campaign, who is the wife of andrew mccabe , now the deputy director of the fbi. a spokesperson for mcauliffe says there is no other motive than getting mccabe elected. the fbi says mccabe was not involved in the case until months after his wife campaign had ended. be set to deliver an electoral college surprise, a victory for independent evan mcmullen. much of his support stems from his mormon faith but many say he
is the only candidate who shares their political vision. the 40-year-old former cia operative was ahead of donald trump and hillary clinton and an october 19 poll. a plane headed to the libyan coast to monitor migrant trafficking routes crashed just after takeoff from alltel today, killing all five french crew members. the multi-international airport is used for surveillance rights -- flights to libya due to its proximity. libby is the main port of departure for thousands of migrants who have been paying smugglers to take them to europe by boat. new research so's cigarettes contribute to one in ford's cancer deaths in the u.s. that is highest in men in southern states. the highest rate was found in arkansas, where 40% of cancer deaths were linked to cigarette smoking.
kentucky had the highest rate among women with 29%. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. shares of t-mobile are shut rising after the company managed to learn new customers without punishing the bottom line. shares are at the highest level since 2007. monthly phone subscriber additions came in at 851,000 compared with the 818,000 estimate. earlier today, emily chang spoke with ceo john legere about 's deals, as well as at&t with time warner. >> we had revenue growth and service revenue growth of 13%, da at 38%.bit that is something that you don't
see. low churn, service revenue growth come a winning on both sides. because this has come ever since at&t bought directv in 2014, they have not gained a single postpaid customer and have been the biggest contributor to our success. i can only say in the short-term this distraction when them trying to take over the entertainment industry is going to be a boom for the short-term future of t-mobile. you are gaining subscribers but your competitors are making moves that they believe put themselves in a better position for the future. a more powerful position, more diversified position. what happens over the long-term when you are just a carrier? what is important, emily, even at&t announced earnings today, verizon announced last week. they are diversifying because the business they are in is shrinking.
we are the reason that is shrinking. we have a sustainable growth business in the wireless industry. verizon and at&t need to create new revenue streams. each new one is falling off. when you move more toward the strategic concept of how you take the 70 million customers that we had with these mobile devices and provide access to all of the content they want to view, i don't see the need to own and control the content away at&t is. already, we have the ability for customers to view on a mobile basis. there are so many ways that i could innovate to be an aggregator of content in a search and discover capability on content by others, and a big part of this deal with at&t and time warner will be them insuring the government that they are not going to close down
optionality for everyone else on the content they have. emily: your unlimited data plans are a big selling point. how long can you continue to allow customers to stream unlimited amounts of data? will you continue to let them stream hbo, cnn, as they have been? .> let's just take now i am pretty sure, by the way, that i have more t-mobile customers using go 90 than verizon does. only one out of five go 90 customers are on verizon. i free stream that for my customers. i have a directv app on my phone. i'm a customer in one of my homes. i can use that capability, streaming, free on t-mobile. what we have done with t-mobile 1, is we have removed overages,
we have removed the buckets. it is all unlimited. our network is performing extremely well. we have acquired 272 million band spectrum, and we are in the midst of an historic spectrum auction. none of the other carriers are focused. we are the only carrier with a year-over-year increase on investment in their network right now. we plan to keep that. i would assume the others are off doing other things. we will be able to let them stream. interestingly, whatever you want, whenever you want, not what we sell you, when we tell you. what kind of an impact heavy scene from the samsung , -- andcall this fall thus far, and how do you anticipate apple and google benefiting from this, are you
excited about the new pixel phone, do you see customers shifting as a result? issue was horrific for them and customers, but samsung will be fine. it's a great company, they take the first that that is most important, which is worried about customers. everybody power down, return for a full refund and move from there. they have not explained exactly why it happened. it seems either they don't know the root of the problem or they have not told customers exactly why the phones are catching fire. right now, for customer safety, it doesn't matter. shut it off, return it. to your other point, there are some amazing new devices out. some of the beneficiaries, the lg v20 is getting a lot of looks. the google pixel, which some
believe is exclusive to verizon, which is craziness. it is available from google unlocked to be use hopefully on the t-mobile network. it's a great device as well. a lot of options for customers. first and foremost, samsung is focused on safety. we are taking care of those customers. vonnie: that was t-mobile ceo john legere. elizabeth warren is railing alongside hillary clinton today in new hampshire. it is her third trip there since july. you can follow along in real time on the bloomberg. elizabeth warren speaking a moment ago speaking to donald trump, nasty women, vote. bigotry has no place in our country. ♪
david: and this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. julie hyman has a chart of the day. julie: it has to do with all of his dealmaking we have been talking about, particularly at&t's $85 billion acquisition of time warner. my chart has to do with the huge bond bonanza that companies are selling to raise money for deals around the globe. this looks at that not just here in the u.s., but total bonds sold to finance in merger acquisition activity. last year was a big year, $310 billion worth of these types of bonds sold. this year, 282 billion. the year is not out and this does not include the $40 billion that at&t is planning to sell of
a bridge loan in order to fund its acquisition of time warner. at&t already has the highest debt load of any s&p 500 company if you exclude financial firms. it looks like a debt will go higher. selling bonds and financing in other ways. here is the debt load of at&t versus time warner. you have a large debt load for at&t specifically. if you had time warner to it, if it is assuming that companies debt, you are talking about debt going up in excess of $22 billion. at&t bond prices have been falling today. moody's downgraded because of some concerns over their debt load. the $40 billion bridge loan that i mentioned is the fifth largest on record of any company, in terms of the size of a bridge loan. another way to look at what is going on with the bond pricing is to look at the spreads. the bond spread of at&t is in
white. all other companies, excluding financial firms, corporate b ond spread in blue. you can see corporate bond risk has been going down at the same time that at&t is ticking up in the wake of this deal, even in anticipation of the deal. ,t will be interesting to see will they get regulatory approval, but also what is this going to do to the credit rating of the company and its debt standing in general? vonnie: thank you. time for our bloomberg business update. david: time to look at the biggest news in the day right now. caterpillar is the best performing industrial stock. the problem is that demand is not recovering. the company is expected to forecast a fifth straight annual sales declined when it reports tomorrow.
the illinois company has not had an annual revenue gain since posting a record in 2012. gannett is cutting 2% of its workforce, more than 250 employees, throughout its company. own usa today and more than 100 local news properties. netflix is increasing a bond offering to $1 billion as investors seek a deal to invest part of their content expansion. the 10 year notes may yield 4.37%. that would be the lowest ever yield for a debt offering for a u.s. company at that rating. vonnie: td ameritrade and toronto dominion bank have for $4to by scott trade billion. toronto dominion will get the banking operations as part of the deal. the bank is td ameritrade's
largest stakeholder. david scanlan is with us from toronto now. what exactly is in this for toronto dominion? things atre two stake. there is scale and cost savings. the scale comes with a 3 million customers they are adding via scott trade, not to mention the 170 billion in assets under management. on the cost side, they can save about $500 million a year just on synergy. when the market for this business is slowing, this is a good opportunity, they think, to cut cost and gain economies of scale. david: we have seen this slowdown in a discount broker business because of etf's, robot advisors. how does this still look attractive? with e*trades buying somebody, allied made in another acquisition. clearly, there is slowing growth
but they feel they can cut costs, add more customers, and there is some synergies for them. i would note for toronto dominion, they are a big retail bank in the united states. this gives them some more diversity. they get their toe in the water's. they were in the brokerage business. ameritrade is the big shareholder, they don't actually own the company. a bit more diversity and more balanced risk as they expand into the u.s. vonnie: how will they cut costs? there is a target there. can they do it without closing bridges? >> there may be some job cuts as well. we don't have a lot of details on that yet. there is some clear overlap in those two businesses in ameritrade and scott trade. they see some opportunities there. david: any sense of how long this deal has been in the works, is a catching anyone by surprise? certainly, there has been all
of this consolidation in the industry. in that sense, not that surprising. i would note as well, the ceo of td has only been in this position for two years, but he made it clear he is interested in getting more assets into the united states, and so we saw today's deal. vonnie: was this start a competitive reach for other types of things that banks in canada could add on in order to meet his competition, is there anything else out there for them to buy? has made it, td clear, in addition to the brokerage business, looking at retail assets. all the banks are interested in wealth management. this sort of fits in with that. i would note, the person who runs ameritrade now used to run the canadian retail business, so clearly you may see some
opportunities for cross sailing, or at least some referrals from the brokerage clients who are looking for a credit card, mortgage. there are some opportunities there, they feel. vonnie: thank you very much, david scanlan. the managing editor in the toronto bureau. david: we will be talking about it more this afternoon on what you miss. up, when is that dreaded tech bubble going to burst, if it is a bubble, and if ever? -- predictionst next for silicon valley. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: it looks a little warmer than it is. i'm vonnie quinn. time for the bloomberg business flash. caterpillar is the best performing industrial stock this year on bets that cost cutting reap rewards as demand recovers. the problem is demand is not recovering. the company is expected to forecast a fifth straight annual sales declined in 2017 when it reports tomorrow. the illinois company has not had an annual revenue gain its posting a record in 2012. gannett is cutting 2% of its workforce, that is more than 300 50 employees growth the company. the move is to manage cost. newspaper ad revenue keeps shrinking. they own usa today and more than 100 local news properties. that blix is headed to the junk
bond market to raise $800 million. the tv and movies of fiction service want to use the money to boost its original content offerings. a person familiar with the matter says netflix may sell 10 your notes as soon as today. they generate little to no profit and their programming budget is still burning through funds. that is our latest bloomberg business flash. david: this was not the year the tech bubble popped, as a lot of people have predicted. the already big venture capital funds kept getting bigger. i asked about what silicon valley is doing with that money and what entrepreneurs and investors can expect next year. >> venture capitalist are raising record amounts of funds from their limited partners, which are like university endowments, mutual fund, overseas investors, and on the other hand, startups are struggling to raise money. what we are seeing is a rush of capital into the start is perceived as the most successful
like uber, snapchat, airbnb, the so-called unicorns, and everyone is feeling kind of meh about the coming year and economic climate. >> the money is going there because they are big and the money is perceived to be safe, or these company's go public at any time? >> the issue is that -- just to take uber as an example. if you are not feeling super good about the economy and your choices are between a startup trying to compete in that space, or even in an adjacent space where you have to compete for so you have that choice, which is high risk, high reward. uber would be perceived as a lower risk, lower return that, but likely to pay off. right now, given we are not in a high-growth environment, uber looks like a safer bet. david: i'm astounded that i'm david gura. is still raising money.
--uber is still raising money. lost and a norm is a lot of money in the beginning of 2016. they have been in a price war with a couple of their rivals. this is being caused by the huge amount of money flowing into silicon valley. lyft in dd in china, the u.s. this causes some investors to be concerned, that it starts a look like a bubble, when you have a bunch of companies generating money, bidding up prices, where the economic prospects of all of them does not look totally certain. david: you look at the healthy days of old in silicon valley where it was easier for somebody with a startup to go to an investor and say, could you cough up a few million dollars? what is somebody like that going to do today? >> the big change has been
smartphones. smartphone growth was off the map, especially in the developing world. if you had something that was pretty good, worked on smartphones, you could basically want -- ride that wave of growth to the bank. if somebody buys a smartphone, they need to download apps. if you are in the app store, they went down on your app. now most people have smartphones and the avenue is sort of closed. there are a few candidates for the next thing thing, ritual reality, driverless cars, wearable technology, but none of them have really broken out. there is no new iphone yet, although there will be. david: you spoke to one investor who said there is no underlying wave of growth. somebody from sequoia capital, one of the stars of the past boom. he invested in instagram, tumblr, square. he said basically that the times are not as good and that a lot
of the innovation is now happening inside a large companies, which are consolidating. they are buying up smaller players and there is not this market that is super friendly to startups. read his stories in the latest edition of bloomberg businessweek, the year ahead issue, which is on newsstands now. up, activistg investor and building founder jonathan litt on his new target. this is bloomberg. ♪ . . .
we are live in new york over the next hour. where covering stories out of los angeles and amsterdam. the biggest deals being at&t's takeover of time warner. we dig into the details and how this could change the media industry. the activist investor who pushed mgm to roll the dice on real estate is campaigning for change at the high-end mall owner. more on the new boardroom battle in moments. a few weeks left until election day. while hillary clinton's lead is widening in many polls, donald trump is hitting the campaign trail hard and doubling down on the rigged election rhetoric. u.s. markets close in about two hours. julie hyman joins us with the latest.
m&a taking center stage today. julie: definitely. the at&t/time warner deal is only one announced today. it has been a busy day boosting stocks. we had the s&p and dow neck-and-neck in terms of percentage gains. the nasdaq has been the leader now up about .9%. if you break it down, it is technology that is the best performing group up by 1%. a lot of large-cap tech firms are higher today. that is because they are reporting earnings later this week so we are seeing optimism. on the flipside, we have telecoms down led by at&t and energy shares under pressure along with oil prices. looking at deals outside of at&t and time warner, we have jen genworth down as it agrees to be acquired for cash.
as you can see, shares are trading below that. it is an ensure that has been struggling for some time. hilton hotels not seeing a big boost. it is a question of changing hands. the stake held by blackstone is being sold to a group from china about a 25% stake for $6.5 billion. up withtrade is teaming toronto-dominion of canada to buy scottrade which is privately held for $4 billion total. those shares are trading lower. is a mixed picture on the earnings front today. have kimberly-clark cutting its growth forecast. those shares down 4%. t-mobile subscriber better than estimated. the shares are up. about atalking weakening consumer.
also weakening today, oil prices lower after iraq raised questions about whether it would sign on to any opec production deal. oil is still down 1.4%. to 10-year note as well we have been watching, the ticking up in yield, 1.77%. we did get a measure of manufacturing today that rose to the highest in a year. amanda: thanks so much. time for bloomberg first word news. mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. mark: the presidential race in north carolina could be headed for a photo finish. the latest poll gives hillary clinton a slight edge over donald trump. 47/46%. the numbers are essentially unchanged from two months ago. 15 electoral votes are at stake in north carolina. with the debates over and the election just two weeks away, hillary clinton is reportedly moving on to the business of being president.
cnn.com reports she is close to finalizing her top advisors and has been reaching out to lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. cnn.com also reports democrats close to clinton say her campaign chairman is still on her list is a potential chief of staff, a position he held during her husband's first term in the early 1990's. u.k. prime minister theresa may brexit negotiating stance is no clearer after a meeting with the leaders of scotland, wales, and northern ireland. that is according to the scottish first minister who spoke to reporters today in london. >> i don't mind admitting frustration. i know nothing more about the u.k.'s negotiating strategy i did not know before the meeting started. we need to see the u.k. government open up. all three governments have expressed concern about economic damage caused by brexit. scotland says another referendum on independence may be justified.
a warning from the united nations on the fighting in iraq. is the military campaign in most sul does not safeguard civilians, it will lead to instability. it says it will still have -- soon have 3000 tents for 150,000 people. the organization is commending jordan for hosting refugees while criticizing the international community's failure to find a political solution to the syrian crisis. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: coming up, jonathan litt strikes again. he joins us to discuss his campaign to shake things up at the high-end mall owner. this is bloomberg. ♪
is "bloomberg markets." i am scarlet fu. amanda: i am amanda lang. time for your bloomberg business flash. volkswagen is facing pressure to repair the damage caused by the scandal. the european union is calling on vw to start compensating consumers. regulators also want the automaker to show proof the cars will be fixed in the coming year. all this according to a letter from the e.u. seen by bloomberg. the general motors brand is the first unit to crack the top three in consumer reports' reliability rankings. gannett is cutting 2% of
its workforce, that is more than 350 employees throughout the company. the move is said to help manage costs as advertising revenue for newspapers continues to shrink. it owns "usa today" and more than 100 local news properties. that is your business flash update. scarlet: thank you. jonathan litt known for targeting real estate companies is making waves again. this time, he has his sights set on high-end mall owner talbot centers. the stock has underperformed the bloomberg index of regional mall owners this year. last week in a letter to board members, he said he sees tremendous opportunity to increase the stock price. jonathan joins me now in the studio. that was last week. today you wrote a letter to the shareholders and board following the move to shrink the number of directors on the board to eight from nine. you said it was an attempt to
stifle shareholders' voices. as the board responded? >> they have not as far as i know. clearly, they knew we were coming. we started our engagement in june. this board member resigned. they shrank the board. they cannot shrink the board pursuant to their charter. they are in violation of the charter which is problematic. scarlet: you have been urging change. i wonder what response you have gotten from other shareholders. blackrockanguard and arteaga of the biggest investors in the company. did you reach out to them? >> typically, vanguard and blackrock will get involved if there is a proxy contest. right now there is not. they don't want to talk about a company unless they have to deal with a vote. i suspect if it goes in that direction, we would be engaged with them. scarlet: is there a way to get the passive investors engaged earlier on corporate governance?
a i think they do a very good job of evaluating the merits of the nominees both sides put up. given the tremendous practices at this company over the past 20 years, i think there is a compelling case for change in the boardroom. scarlet: i mentioned you said you see tremendous opportunity in the stock. the stock is trading in the low 70's in line with the average price over the last five years. as recently as august, it was trading at $81. where should it be? >> we think the net asset value is 106. that goes along with most expectations. there is a tremendous amount of upside. many analysts tag the discount on corporate governance as well as operating issues. scarlet: in terms of operationally what they could be has 24etter, taubman
centers across the u.s. and has expanded into china and south korea. do you think it was the wrong move or bad timing? >> these are the best malls in the united states. the most high-end, the highest income earners. these have been doing well in terms of growing earnings. we think they will continue. expansion into asia is 11 years. this is the first time we have had assets up and running and available for lease. investors are unhappy with the expansion into asia. they want to own u.s. malls. they don't want to own asian malls. if they want to on that, they could buy a company in singapore. i think the south korea asset will be a great success. on china, the verdict is out. scarlet: it should not be paired with u.s. assets. >> correct. it was like when we set him jim is great -- mgm is great. scarlet: america is
over-malled. taubman has been insulated from that because they target high-end shoppers. is that going to catch up with them? >> i think if you are going to , with her ticket item shoes, a car, people want to go and try it on. there are not that many of these in the u.s. retailers want to be in these malls because they know they will get shoppers coming to them because of the productivity in the centers. scarlet: you have more than two decades of experience in real estate. what do you think people get wrong the most when it comes to investing in real estate? >> get run the most? i think people look at it as a dividend yield. it is not. they are growing earnings and dividends. stocks go up because of those factors. they are not bond substitutes. in an environment like we are seeing now where stocks are
going down because interest rates are going up, that will pass. we have seen this over the years. stocks will come back to the underlying value. probably by the end of the year as investors realize this is not a bond, it is a cash flow growing, dividend paying machine. scarlet: everyone is searching for yield. do you think this new pool of investors that have flooded into real estate investment trusts have distorted how companies approach operating businesses? >> that is a good question. private real estate market is so much bigger than the public real estate market. when we look at the value of public companies, we can see what companies are transacting and determine these are trading at a discount to values. i think you would need a huge change in the 10-year treasury yield to see value get impacted. scarlet: jonathan litt, thank
at&t agreeing to buy time warner for $84 billion. tos deal gives at&t content fill its mobile, pay-tv, and internet services. news was first reported by bloomberg news last thursday but it moved quickly. for details, let's hand it over to our colleagues. much. thank you so charlie, thank you. welcome everybody on bloomberg television. carol massar along with cory johnson. the technology reporter for bloomberg news. you guys got the story out for the left front and center last week. we are watching how investors are reacting. there are a lot of questions whether at&t gets to do this take over of time warner. >> i feel the regulatory world has shifted. it has been difficult in the second half of the obama
administration. there is no sign it will get easier. donald trump has said he plans on blocking the deal if elected. hillary clinton has made comments she will take a close look at these megamergers. bernie sanders says the deal should be blocked. you could see a hillary clinton administration being even more difficult and having more scrutiny on these big mergers. i can see why the markets feel this deal may not go through. that said, the clearest proxy for this deal is comcast buying nbc. that is a deal that did go through. i wonder when we look at the deal, while comcast did get nbc through, the backlash grew. there was a lot of talk about the free and open internet. it seems it has changed and was changing and they barely got the deal in. >> that deal got through with conditions. there was a lot of talk about
the consent decree which was basically comcast could buy nbc but the deal was they had to make sure they sold all the nbc content to comcast competitors. there was an end date on that of 2019 or so. after 2019, comcast could take nbc's content exclusively theoretically. there were no conditions for that part. things expired. >> correct. that is the problem with conditions. if there is an end date, we are getting close to it. i think people are wondering. is comcast going to do something weird with nbc? are they going to take the content exclusive? cory: concerns about an at&t deal are greater. >> i think that is part of the fear. we entered into this new world. what happens if contrast --
comcast buys a wireless network? could they restrict content? that is a problem with a deal with conditions. i think that is why regulators will look at this deal which is even bigger with scrutiny. not to say the deal will fail because it is a vertical integration. these companies don't compete. comcast does not compete with time warner cable either and becausel was nixed regulators felt it would give them too much market power. carol: there are a lot of content providers. who gets hurt by at&t buying time warner that regulators beld say we have got to concerned about customers? who gets hurt by this deal? >> the idea would be smaller content providers get hurt. part is byn at&t's
owning time warner, we can package time warner's content with our wireless network in new ways. maybe we can sell a bundle of just time warner content and package it with at&t wireless and allow other people to sell that if they want to. we would allow the ryan -- verizon or comcast to sell it. content guys that don't have is that premium content get left off the bundle to save costs. maybe regulators feel that is unfair. cory: maybe that is fox news or a different voice that could be shut down. >> it limits the voices in the marketplace. that might be something where regulators are sensitive to that because they have worked hard to get some of these minority voices in. cory: what about cnn? when fox was looking at time warner, there was talk about being compelled to spin off cnn. the thing missing in
the discussion, what is it mean to have seen and owned? cnn is so important to the rest of the business that time warner has been able to go to cable providers and say if you want it, you have to take the country music channel at all the other stuff they might not be willing to take. >> i don't know there is a problem. there would have been a problem with owning fox news and cnn. at&t does not own any content to speak of. i am not sure there will be a regulatory issue with them owning cnn. carol: does this deal cause someone else to have to do something now? >> i think for sure. who acts when and how quickly do we see this? this idea of having copycats is very common. it would not surprise me if charter which is partially owned by liberty media starts rolling content into its own cable
distribution companies. stakes in the lions gate company coming together, discovery. is it possible he decides let's roll them into one bigger vertically integrated company? i could see that happening. comcast may decide it wants to buy t-mobile because if it wants to compete with at&t, they have tv, phone wireless, to the home plate. maybe contrast -- comcast wants to do the same thing. cory: it is a big deal at a time when big deals are not being approved. >> there is a low breakup fee. at&t watchers may remember at&t had to pay a $6 billion plus breakup fee when it tried to buy t-mobile a few years ago. fee fee from an agency
standpoint would only be $500 million. the comcast/time warner cable deal had no fee. i do think there is an awareness this you might be difficult. carol: alex sherman, thank you so much. back over to you guys. amanda: thank you so much. you can catch more radio interviews on sirius xm, bloomberg.com, and bbrgo. much more ahead on the deal for time warner. we are speaking with rich greenfield later this hour. let's take a quick look at the u.s. markets where we have seen a lot of enthusiasm on merger monday. 1.8% decline is dragging down the sector. brought enthusiasm to the outside in consumer
staples thanks to the td ameritrade deal. scarlet: the best protected group jumping almost 5% on the day. treasury prices are down. that means higher yields. the latest data indicating the fed has room to raise interest rates. will currently trading at a currentlyow -- oil trading at a one-week low. a quick mention of the chinese yen. this is what it has been trading in shanghai. offshore falling to a record low versus the u.s. dollar. more signs the chinese are moving money offshore in capital outflows. we will have more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
in new york. let's go to julie hyman. julie: oil has been a mover today. it is bouncing off lows as we head into clothes. $.52llars lucky --id a rock was he argued that iraq is facing islamic extremist in the country and is not able to cut production so that was affecting oil. it one way to get perspective on iraq and any of the opec nations is to look at opec go on bloomberg. opecis a share of production coming from countries. iraq is at number two.
second only to saudi arabia. you see here the monthly estimated production rising to a record and so that is why we have seen a reaction to any kind of whisper or optimism that opec might be coming up with a production cut plan. i want to check on natural gas. it is still going down. if a loss for the past few sessions. fourth straight day of decline. it is down another 5%. this is the biggest selloff that we have seen going back to february for natural gas. the irony is that even as we have seen the selloff, people are getting less bearish on national -- natural gas. take a look at this. s net shorts. it is the lowest we have seen in six years. in other words, hedge funds are cutting their wagers at a time
when natural gas is going down. the timing is not the best. the nasdaq going down again. even though it is colder in the northeast, there is warmer weather and the midwest. julie hyman, thank you so much. let's take a look at the headlines. mark has more. mark: elizabeth warren is warning donald trump that so-called nasty women will come out in droves to help send hillary clinton to the white house. nasty women are tough. nasty women are smart and nasty women vote. >> senator warren says that trump thinks because he is wealthy he can call women that takes.
she said nasty women have had it with guys like trump. says they are creating phony polls. he did not provide any evidence for his claim. most polls show him losing nationally and in key battleground states. north korea criticize sanctions by the united states -- united nations. areproposed sanctions criminal and they accused the united states of orchestrating the punishment. it doesn't include soldiers who may be considering or starting gender transition. the pentagon's policy allowing transgender members to serve openly began october 1.
news more than 24 hours a day in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> tia ceo roger ferguson has -- including the purchase of a new investment company. earlier today, we asked the about aaid vice chair rate hike later this year. >> i would say we are facing a retirement challenge that can become a crisis. we know that far too few people have saved for retirement and many of them are focused on only the asset allocation and not the payout. finally, week clearly know the -- crats -- demographics
>> i wonder how demographics play into this. japan andlked about other countries and now conversation in the u.s. as well when it comes to saving. how are those demographics? japan.look at you have the aging population. it social security started in the 1950's, we had about 16 workers for every retired person. 2.8. now it is about 2.1 the nextwn to couple of decades. productivity has slowed across a lot of countries and there's a lot of question if that has been driven by demographics. andou see the labor force
how many people are leaving. it that is also a demographics story. demographics play across the entire spectrum and what we can expect for productivity growth. >> will a rate increase help? >> the answer is higher rates would help to some degree. associated with a couple of other things. first, the economy itself is moving rapidly enough that even a small increase doesn't throw or theporate earnings rise in equity violations. for many folks, it is both equity and fixed income. the answer is you would be better off consistent with good growth. >> when will that be the case in
the u.s.? >> you have to ask of the fed about that. obviously the federal reserve is debating the question is -- if they should raise? the markets are expecting action in december. the feds have been clear that it is going to be a gradually slow process. questions to how much slack is in the labor force and low inflation. >> you must have to pay attention that is going on in the hedge fund space. all good things. what is the future outlook for hedge funds? >> i believe the hedge fund space will be important. and vesting can be cyclical.
an environment of low interest rates, other asset classes doing well. hedge funds have been focused on volatility trade. there is less in the market right now. i think it will be re-forced -- forced to rethink the compensation model. particularly for large institutional investors. there will be hedge funds going forward. their performance will be up and , including the absence of volatility as of late. >> that was roger ferguson, tia ceo. coming up, donald trump accuses the media of trying to suppress voter turnout with phony polls. we will have the latest on the campaign. this is "bloomberg."
♪ this is bloomberg markets. a little over two weeks away from the u.s. election. hillary clinton's lead and polling continues to grow. according to a new tracking poll , she is up 12% over donald trump. chop is not wavering. he wrote we are winning and they refusing topress is show it. let's start with the polls. they are all over the map. some of the most important will be in the key states. how is it looking there for hillary clinton?
>> it is looking good for her right now. i think the averages -- and i would caution viewers not to look at not just one poll but polling averages -- and they say she is on course to win every state that president obama one in 2012 plus north carolina. won in 2012 + salina. plus north carolina. ranges a pretty broad there. it is looking good for her. >> are there any states which hillary clinton can't win? >> none of the states she needs to win. hering averages might have
.in right now, she is in a better place then he is. the abc national poll found hillary clinton leading among men by three points. is the case, we are looking at a landslide. right now, we're looking at range of in the reservoir in 2012. votesot of down ballot the focus of her campaign. what is the expectation? >> the optimism on the down by that level is mostly based on the fact that she is way ahead in the white house polls and the
attention has shifted because there's more excitement on the senate level. it is not clear that republicans are going to lose the senate. i think the senate battle is going to go down to the wire. we will probably find out in the next 10 days. i think it is going to be very to 50-50. the house is a lot harder for democrats. clinton begun to address how she might does the gap between her supporters and trump supporters? so many people believe she has the election and hand. or is that too much of a jump to
make it right now and it would discourage people from coming out to vote? >> hillary clinton's strategy brushes up against that because she is trying to tie down ballot officials to trump. what hillary clinton and present obama and many of her surrogates are trying to do is to try to tide these -- tide these down ballot candidates to trump. it is hard for her to do that and make outreach to republicans who say i'm going to paint you
with a broad brush. right now, 15 days to go, i think she will see it as a time for campaigning and will see it on the down ballot. the bloombergr business flash. goldman sachs cutting s&p 500 earnings through 2018. its estimates are that it will be up. probablyiller, who is best known for -- financial names such as one main holding. safe stocks like utilities will
♪ you're looking at a live shot of new york city on this trading day. at&tt's get back to the time warner deal. richard green phil says it is a defensive play. the harsh reality is the cable network business has been over earning for decades. rich springfield talks about his analysis. >> as we all learned with time warner and comcast, never be too
sure because even when companies -- i look at our own research. wen the deal was announced, were one of your percent confident it wouldn't have been. count outwant to anything before happens. i think the interesting thing is we don't know of the fec -- fcc is going to get involved. if they are not involved in the only way to block the transaction is on legal grounds. on a legal basis, the question is i think a lot of people don't deal.he comcast i think there's a lot of .egative feelings
just because you don't like something doesn't mean there is a legal basis for blocking it. the question is what is the legal basis for blocking this transaction? it is not clear sitting here today how the government will go after it legally. >> one area is consumer interest . let's talk about the arguments they will make. >> your argument is that it plays into the hands. what is it for these companies? the rationale they will have a big control over >> the business. > the business. >> when you go home at night, the fee was that comcast was effectively a monopoly. meaning for viewers didn't have a choice. they were the only high-quality choice.
at&t doesn't have a big broadband network. they are known for wireless. on the video side, you could get dish, comcast, google fiber. the monopolyof seems a lot harder to make because they don't control wired broadband business so the argument would be we're going to block bloomberg from getting to consumers because we own cnn. doesn't really hold water when most businesses look very competitive? in fact, they are buying time warner. they are looking for something
else. >> we talk about what this means for other media companies. are we at peak content? as this as good at it gets? >> there was a point time when consumers had endless choice. you thought -- think about why our ratings so bad? , dancing is down 30% with the stars is down, modern family is down. if you pick back the onion and show everything is getting obliterated. people are just not watching television anymore and so if the game is not exciting do you turn hulu.odline or
you have some a choices. a whole generation is not understanding this anymore. cable networks have been over thinkg four years and i the internet disrupts inefficiency. you had to buy an entire huge package of channels. you did not want mostyou had to. internet -- internet disrupts inefficiency. just like it has happened to music and publishing. ba will time warner merger was driven by stocks. by -- s driven
isi think the timing absolutely due to the fact that credit is cheap am a easy -- cheap, easy to finance and this was a great way. time warner may have trouble longer-term over the next 3-4 years they look pretty secure. rich greenfield, thanks a much. coming up at the top of the hour, jason shanker receives -- we will find out what he thinks coming up. this is "bloomberg."
♪ scarlet: we live for the next hour. here is what we are watching. treasuries are falling as economic data bolsters a case or a rate in these this year. we will hear from jason in just moments. third-largest u.s. carrier managing to lower u.s. customers without punishing its bottom line. we will compare with -- about the results. .ore deals announced the ceo and president of ameritrade will join bloomberg television to discuss his $4 billion deal. we are one hour from the close of u.s. trade. merger monday and earnings. the drivers.y are
the unexpected of the two. also, earnings do not heat up more as we get up into the week. steady as we have gone into the afternoon. the s&p and the dow up the same percentage. the nasdaq 9/10 of 1%. whatf the main drivers of we're seeing today does not directly have to do with either theme at least not today. microsoft was out with earnings last week. shares of 2% and amazon, they all report this week but are not reporting today. rising in anticipation of those earnings. amazon is still near a record. that is something we see consistently for that stock. big deal to the talk about, the $85 billion deal . both of those stocks are down.
we talk about deal activity, it is not only what is involved, but the general feeling that investors should or time warner selling off after big games thursday and friday. about theconcerns debt load. . mixed bag t-mobile is higher by nearly 10% after earnings beat estimates. forecastcutting their today. consistent thing we have seen his earnings-per-share estimates are going higher. this is a chart highlighted today. this is the estimated 12 month earnings-per-share for the s&p 500 in blue.
we have seen the estimates continue to go higher despite the fact that we have been in a year-over-year earnings slump. and isy turnaround predicted to definitely turnaround in the next quarter. we have been stuck in a range for a little while. we will see what happens once earnings season is said and done. >> thanks, julie. mark crumpton is in the newsroom. mark: the 2016 presidential race could be headed for a photo finish. the latest poll gives hillary clinton a slight edge over donald trump. 47 percent-40 6%. the numbers are essentially unchanged from a few months ago. 15 electoral votes are on -- are at stake. new jersey governor chris christie says he was told twice
about lane closures on the george washington bridge. testified that she told the governor about the traffic problems. any knowledge of the lane closures was denied. prosecutors say it was part of a political payback scheme. meeting pope francis at the vatican today during a tense standoff in venezuela over a recall referendum campaign that seeks removal. the opposition controlled congress declared the government had carried out a coup. trying to mediate a resolution to the price -- to the crisis. a warning on the united nations on the finding in iraq. if they do not safeguard will lead to displacement and instability in the region.
enough shelter for 150,000 people. the organization is also criticizing the international community's failure to find a solution to the crisis. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 in morests and analysts than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. back to you. amanda: looking ahead to a thisr of key economic data week. market participants will watch for any signs that could drive the federal reserve to raise rates sooner or faster. a november rate hike, he says hawkish fed expectations could weigh on equities, gold prices, and oil. a top bloomberg ranked forecaster on everything from oil to unemployment data. great to have you with us. it does appear the sentiment has shifted positive. even earnings outlook.
intothat not all play affirming the expectations and when? >> there is a possibility we could see those be a bit more fed hawkish. we could -- we could be a dollar bullish. i'm concerned with a number of economic indicators. it has contracted in the last three consecutive reports. if you continue to have negative eventually that will adversely affect consumption, industrial data. we will watch closely when that is out next week. that is critical when we go to watch as well. and number of other data we want to watch closely. year-over-year auto sales. >> there is a fed they pay attention to jobs report and core pce. you tell us there will be plenty of reasons for the fed to pause
whether it considers to raise interest rates. how much will factor into the decision in november and december? >> it depends on the magnitude we are talking about. report, they had -- gdp have fallen. back in august, the expectations are between 3.5 and 4%. gdp now sitting at 2%. our forecast since august has been 1.9. i am concerned as we look at q4, what will this number be? will we see another consecutive quarter of negative investment? could there then be five quarters in a row of negative investment? we see that gdp number be? we expect the number to be weaker than what we expect. is while the trend
is clear, timing is not. in this case, i want to take inside the terminal and look at what the hedge fund has at gold. on thetes are actually rise in a firm way, we are seeing outflows out of gold. our people moving too fast ahead of all of this? >> one thing is we have had gold fall below a critical coastline. it was really critical. feeding onchnical the back of fundamental expectations of a fed rate hike. because the red says they will do a lot of rate hikes, hundreds of basis points are coming, and that does not mean they will actually come. a lot of data show the economy is slowing in a lot of ways.
the slowest field we have had, 2015. you look at industrial production, negative year-over-year for 13 consecutive months. in the last 97 years, the maximum was only four consecutive months. if you have more than 40, you are looking at a recession. i'm concerned about these things. then there is the fact that you .ave a confidence in timing i think in the next 12 months, we are looking at the next recession starting to adjust because the fed says they will do these rate hikes, it does not mean it will happen. it does not mean they will not come back if the economic outlook sours, which seems quite likely. you aboutto talk with oil. last year, it seemed they had broken out of the range and had climbed.
we are right back in the range once again. the deal is a catalyst for oil. no action has been taken, with countries from iraq to nigeria saying they will not take part. what is the chance of success for an actual follow-through? tothe more players that have do different things, the more difficult it is. if you were to have a larger player pullback production barrels, that is a lot easier than having others pullback separately. challenge here. in the u.s., if you look at the recounts, oil rig counts are up 30%. you are seeing more drilling. $47 per barrel. i think you will see relatively higher prices resulting in a bit more chilling. i do not think he will get as much and i fed rate hike further
competitors has made roger one of the world's most richest people. bloombergnked on the leaners index with a $4 billion net worth after the company agreed to be purchased by competitors. the deal is expected to close in september of next year. betterft in the u.k. deal with a sticker shock. a raisin price. the reason is the big drop in the pound. microsoft consumer software and microsoft products will not be affected. aerospace business, buying for $6.4 billion in cash and stocks. focusing on aircraft communication and computing equipment. they make aircraft cabin equipment such as seats. that is your update.
staying on him a day, everyone from investors and ceo's is weighing into a billion-dollar deal to acquire time warner. wrote, yikes, a terrible result. any other diversion tactics? this is something emily chang asked about in an interview earlier today. in the short say term, this distraction with them trying to take over the entertainment industry, will be the future of t-mobile's growth. >> what about long-term? you are gaining subscribers but competitors are making moves that they believe put in better positions for the future. more powerful and more diversified positions. what happens when you are just a carrier? >> again, what is important is even at&t announced earnings today.
they are diversifying because the business they are in is shrinking. we are the reason that is shrinking. we have a sustainable growth business in the wireless industry. for rise and at&t need to create new revenue streams. wireless is falling. more to the strategic concept of how do we take the 70 million customers we have with mobile devices and provide them access to all of the content they want to view, i do not see the need to own and control the content the way at&t is already with t-mobile one, we have the ability for our customers to and on a mobile basis, there are some anyways i can innovate to be an aggregator of content and a search and discover capability on content by others, and a big part of this deal with at&t and time
warner will be them insuring the toernment they are not going close down option audi for everybody else on the content that they have, certainly i would hope. >> unlimited data plans are a big selling point. how long can you continue to allow customers to stream unlimited amounts of data? will you continue to let them stream hbo, cnn, as they have been? justs and remember, let's take now. i have moreure t-mobile customers using go 90 than verizon does. only one out of five go 90 customers are on verizon. if i want. i have a direct tv app on my phone. capabilityy directv
streaming free on t-mobile. is we havee done removed overages and removed buckets. it is all unlimited. the network is performing extremely well. the 700 megahertz spectrum, we are in the middle of a historic auction, which, on the investments and infrastructure, none of the other carriers are focused. we are the only carrier with year over year network. we plan to keep that. i would assume other guys are off doing other things. we will be able to continue to let them stream whatever you want whenever you want, not what we sell you when we tell you. what kind of an impact have you seen from the samsung recalls thus far and how do you to benefit from the
recall? are you excited about the new phones and do you see customers shifting as a result? >> yes come on all fronts. was horrificsue for them and customers. samsung will be fine. it is a great company and they take the first step, to worry about customers. everyone para down and return for a full refund. there are other great samsung devices that customers love. amanda: they still have not figured out exactly why this happened. either they do not know the root of the problem or they have not told customers why the phones are catching fire. customernow, for safety, it does not matter. shut it off and return it. to your other point, there are amazing new devices out. the lgv 20, a beautiful high-end
phone, is getting a lot of looks. google pixel, which some people believe is exclusive to verizon, which is crazy, it is available from google to be used hopefully on the t-mobile network. a lot of options for customers here first and foremost, samsung is focused on their safety, bring back production, and we are full care of the customers. amanda: that was john speaking with emily chang. still ahead, options insight. today's trade is amazon. an all-time high earlier this month. this is bloomberg. ♪
iewers have been watching and may -- they may notice i talk about amazon. it is trading near its record again. a big lift in technology and this is the stock we're talking about this week. you are looking not at a director earnings play on amazon. talk to me about your thinking here. >> we want to look out a little further a lot of times. into earnings essentially all the time. oftentimes if you go out and buy expire thisns that friday, there is no extrinsic value. you have to nail it perfectly. a lot of times we want to pay --s and also by some time
and by some time. >> one way is to look at the skew on bloomberg. we created a chart we can take a look at on the bloomberg which looks at options. talk about what your take away is. >> if you things. you look at near-term applied volatility, that could tell you what the implied earnings move is. we compare that. in the case of amazon, there is a 6.2% implied move, and historically has moved to 9%. to your point, the orange line on the bottom is what it looks like right now off to the left. green, blue, purple, going back last three or news reports. it tells us on a relative aces, implied volatility, risk, has
come out of the name as it go into earnings. left, volatility, if that were particularly steep, relative to those there was greater risk for down tied -- downside. priorare moving down with earnings and at a lower level than all of them. a benign set up into amazon's report. optimistic you are looking at a call spread and are optimistic the stock keeps going up. >> right. if it moves the 9% it historically has, and it moves up as we think it will come it will be a $910 stock by the end of the week.
itare going out and showing hundred 60, 910 call spreads, a --point spread, paying 14 $14.9. to one potential payout with stock up there. big numbers. the way we think about it is if it catches the 9%, we still have got two months until the expiration in december. >> we shall see. much.hank you so back to you. >> thank you. is coming upmiss next. we are speaking with the ceo of tv ameritrade. talking about the $4 billion deal. this is bloomberg. ♪
2005. his private club in palm beach, florida. the associated press reports there is little evidence of large-scale damage. trump said the property was devastated after hurricanes in 2004 and 2005. members and others say they do not recall significant damage. trump did not answer questions about the damage but conceded pocketing some of the insurance money in a 2007 deposition in an unrelated law death lawsuit. hillary clinton both at picture and saint -- campaign rally. just that ms. clinton: to push the terrorist out of the key city of multiple, already, and i quote, a total disaster, and that our country is, quote, looking so dumb.