tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg October 31, 2016 12:00pm-3:31pm EDT
bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: we are going to take you from houston to london and cover stories out of japan, washington, and spain. here is what we are watching today -- the chief executives behind the new $32 billion oil services giant, we will talk to the chief oil and gas executive on baker hughes. vonnie: policy decisions are playing second fiddle. we will bring you the latest on global, central bankers. hillary clinton's allies -- in an effort to send political damage after the reopening to clinton's emails.
it -- is it enough to change some voter's mind? 30 minutes left into the session.ading looking at how the assets are faring. stocks are falling for the sixth consecutive day. since february, the euro down. biggest fall since may. european bond yields are falling. commodities, let's get to some of the big movers. daegis appetizing company biggest rising third -- reportedng company rising -- it is a digital service making acquisitions to outpace.
grew 2.7%., sales 3.4% in the previous quarter. first signs of brexit anxiety following the brexit in june. this is a great chart. showing volatility in the swedish krona. the krone volatility is the white line. the sterling volatility is the purple line. yen is the red line. dwarfing itsity is peers and swinging more wildly than the pound post-brexit. this is one week historical volatility. this is fascinating. it signaled more stimulus could be coming. analysts say the magnitude of the currencies may make imminent easing most likely.
really quickly, we have talked about oil. let's talk about the euro because this is euro sure. bonds effecting the euro and hedge funds. bearish future positions in the euro. , worst month since may. mark, thanks. gass mining its oil and business with baker hughes. margin is the ceo of baker hughes. gentlemen, thank you for being here. congratulations on pulling this deal off. lorenzo, i want to start with you. how soon after the merger
failed, did you get off the phone and talk to martin? thanks. it is great to be here. afterrted out soon after transactionghes failed. digital industrial country, and we formed an industrial operating system that we want to take to the oilfield. discussion started out on how we could move upstream with the big data analytics. from there, we started to get an understanding of the complementary portfolio between the two countries -- to companies and what we could provide our customers from what we view as a full string capability. that is what we have announced today. also, providing our customers
the capability of going upstream to downstream with full data. >> has anyone tried to get you in the meantime? [laughter] >> thanks for having us on this morning. i am not going to comment on that. i was very intrigued when lorenzo reached out to me. i can tell you the conversation quickly grew in terms of the scope of what the possibility was. we land here today. it has been a pretty rapid journey. and it has been, you know, one that made so much sense for both sets of shareholders, employees, and most important, our customers. martin, let's get to the synergies. $400 million of revenue. is that a hard number or does it grow? ge's tremendous pipeline, the synergies could be way bigger than 400 million? >> that is exactly right.
we think that is a pretty modest projection. if you are able to play in a much broader array of the oil and gas sector, and you couple upstream our domain with ge's more mainstream, downstream domain, then you can go to the customer community and have a conversation about reducing dollars per barrel and improving the recovery factors, optimizing the production profiles. all of the urgent issues facing the customer. no one can do that right now. the are forward to getting this to the military environment as quickly as possible -- getting through the regulatory environment as quickly as possible. follow-up --can you expand on that $400 million worth of synergies? designate to $1 billion? where do you see it --does it get to $1 billion?
>> i don't to put a limit on it. $400 million is a very modest number. you tell me what the oil price will be two years from now and what our customer spending patterns will be? that number could go well north based on what the spend pattern is. we have a big bias in north america and a pickup in the middle east. but the offshore arena's facing headwinds. whatever the global economy looks like and global prices will much drive the synergy number. make no doubt about it, that $400 million is a modest production. alix: if i knew the answers, i would not be sitting here. lorenzo, that brings us to the question of why now? because the dealer so levered as to what the oil price will be, what prices relatively conservative. between $45 and $65.
why was today the right time to do this deal? getting if you look at value to our customers, it is the right time. we modeled this transaction in multiple scenarios where oil maintains its current levels. this is still attractive from an investment perspective and provide a creative nature of value. when you look at the complementry nature, we are able to different ourselves -- to differentiate ourselves is bringing in the cost synergies. synergy. modest cost you get that through the product cost initiatives, the footprint, the ability to take the manufacturing excellence and to the baker hughes manufacturing footprint. we see this as being the right time. hanley providing value to what our customers need it. the cost per barrel is what we are going after.
alix: what company do you become? you were equal in offshore. now that you add in baker hughes with the connections, what kind of company do you wind up having? lorenzo: we end up having an amazing franchise that julie is complementary and provides our customers with what they are looking for. interrupt, but is it focused on shale, emerging markets? can you specify? lorenzo: it is a better blend. with baker hughes, we get the uphill focus. we are able to bring in from what we have from upstream to downstream. alix: martin, you were burnt pretty bad. the halliburton-baker hughes
merger was tied up for years and did not get done. do you expect regulators to look at this ge-baker hughes deal as they did the haliburton-peter hughes deal? martin: it is a very different set of circumstances. as we said on the investor call, very little overlap. it does have a grouping of jurisdictions around the world, like any other large global transaction. we have done our homework. both sides have. we have very confident outside counsel on both sides. and we think of the customer community is going to be very supportive of this for some of the reasons lorenzo mentioned in terms of bringing the synergy and helping them get their cost ton, which is only going occur as a result of bringing these capability sets from both baker hughes and ge together. so, as a regulatory bodies
should, they will look at competition and any concentration in markets and look at what this does for the customer. in this case, and you are right, we have experience at this and feel very comfortable with the outlook. alix: one area where there is overlap is artificial -- before toill you spin off any assets to satisfy regulatory concerns? lorenzo: very early to say that. we have to work with the doj. if you look at the segmentation and berries aspects of onshore -offshore, give us time. we will do what it takes to work through any items and work constructively. topic ofenzo, on the investors, you wanted only 'srtain parts of baker hughes
portfolio. are you looking to selloff what you did not want in the first place? lorenzo: i would like to correct that. what we had was an opportunity to the haliburton-baker hughes initial transaction, only a few assets were available. now we are able to take what is a great company and bring it in to a better portfolio within the new baker hughes. so, it is an outcome we are very happy about. alix: martin was laughing when i said that. my last question goes to you martin. when do you see pricing power coming back to the oil services company? when you start to raise prices? margin: that is a great question. it is going to come back in pockets geographically as well as pockets within the respective portfolios. everything being equal, if we kind of project on our earnings call last week, we see a slow grind in north america.
we believe our customer community need something around 55 and 64 some period of time depending on that particular company to where they had the confidence that they can point capital any meaningful way. line,ing on the product particularly technology-based ones, you will get price structure really quickly. as i said, some of our high-end services sold out. i would expect artificial lists secondly. pressure pumping and fracking could be slower to get pricing. international, certainly the middle east is picking up. and some of the offshore markets will be slower to recover. but this combination of these should bring this activity curve forward a little bit. you know, that is one man's view of what the world looks like in
headquarters, i'm vonnie quinn. let's get straight to julie hyman has a check on the u.s. trading session and oil. julie: oil having a big tumble. at its lowest price in a month. opec fails to come to an agreement indiana as the director urges them to do so -- vienna as thet in director urges them to do so. the russian ruble is tied to the commodity seen. the global is up two thirds of 1%. weakness in the russian currency. u.s.ing it back to the stock market, if you look at the three major averages, we are seeing a bias with the s&p and nasdaq, each up to 10th of 1%. the dow is little changed gaining seven points at the moment. where we are seeing strength of
the s&p 500 is the interest rate sensitive groups. you see more green than red at the moment. utilities in real estate, those are the interest rate-sensitive groups, doing better. energy is the biggest drag with oil prices down. interestent -- the rate, sensitive groups doing better. that wee big runoff have seen, treasuries and global bonds have very weak months pushing yields higher. a little bit of a drop is proving to be a relief to those interest rate-sensitive sectors. vonnie: thank you for all of that. to the fbi reviewing files relating to hillary clinton's emails. the latest poll tracking clinton holding a razor tightly over donald trump. big drop from a week ago in the same poll showed clinton leading
by 12%. joining us is steve of bloomberg politics. date, youing us up to have the text of what kelly griffin will sacred >> when this came out late last week, the campaign's approach was to attack the fbi. they try that over the weekend and the general consensus is it was not the right message and they don't want to be warring with the fbi in the last week of the campaign. hillary will be speaking in ohio. it is a refocusing on donald trump. she will talk about why he is unfit to be president. her campaign released an ad today. , famous little 1964 ad daisy girl added that lyndon b. johnson put out showing little girl picking flowers and this nuclear explosion happened, it
was a way to attack very goldwater. they released their version of that today and their doubling down on this donald trump is unfit and regardless of what you hear about the fbi, here is the choice you have to make. vonnie: is that a wise choice? only people who could be turned at this point of the undecideds? >> that is what you are seeing in the polling. it has been a tightening race and has been for some time. it is not like we are seeing a bunch of people abandon hillary clinton. donald trump's voters do not care. it is not fair that hillary clinton's voters will be swayed by it. it is the small people in the middle, and that is who she is speaking to today. mark: steve, is there anything comey can do in the last nine days that would either make democrats vote for trump, or make them not vote at all?
what the clinton campaign is worried about is that he does nothing at all. this isguity of all of what they fear is feeding -- they are letting imaginations run wild. if comey explained more, the clinton campaign would be happier about that, and the trump campaign is trying to stay out of it as much as possible. i would not be surprised if they are hoping that comey stays silent. mark: whenever going to get some of the answers on whether these newly discovered emails contained classified information? when are we going to get more answers to the question? in the meantime, this vacuum is being filled by speculation. steve: that is right. the fbi had to get court permission to take into these emails. they now have that permission and are going through them. reportedly 55,000 of them and it could take some time. the fbi said they are throwing every resource that they can,
but there are no promises it will happen before election day. vonnie: james comey is under fire for coming out when he did. does he keep his post no matter who is the next president? steve: no one is willing to wait and on that at the moment. there are a lot of democrats who are now calling for his resignation and would call for it in the near future. ticketing campaign was to stay as far away from that is possible. mark: stephen, thank you so much. still ahead, new report says that brexit can actually be good news for the u.k.'s biggest banks. we will have that information next. this is bloomberg. ♪
six minutes until the end of the multisession. time for the bloomberg business flash to look at the biggest stories in the news right now. there is a report offering a different take on frexit's impact on the london's financial industry. they said firms could gain an extra 46 billion dollars in annual revenue after britain leaves the e.u. the report is from the pro--brexit group. leave measly. the europe site, the free trade agreement would delay a small region in belgium as the prime minister was in brussels for a ceremony. it would cut manufactures. -- e.u. would come to object there were objections from that region.
that is the latest bloomberg business flash. we're five minutes away from the end of the multisession. declined,quities -- longest losing run since february. we are on track for the second consecutive monthly drop. that is the worst losing run since february as well. 600benchmarks, the stoxx won't be proud about. it is all about all today. -- it is all about oil today. all of the major indices are lower. the worst performing industry group is oil and gas. today, you have the currency board. sterling up against the dollar. sinceg its lowest levels 1985. the closest four minutes away. this is bloomberg.
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session. the longest losing run since february. and looks like it will finish october low as well. declines have happened in february. this partly found trending in a range of less than 15 points since september. for 38 consecutive weeks, investors are pulling money from funds. that is a record losing stre street. love this chart, simple chart. asset sincerforming october. has rallied, the best month since may. the worst, the pound in october, down by 5.8%. it was the worst month in eight years. the worst slump in eight years. the index is down by 3%. fared's thoughts have
marginally better. classst performing asset in october, you guessed it, commodities. it measures 23 commodities of 8%.point, zeros you clearnot beat the dead to . the best -- performing asset class -- -- t best performing asset class. a lovely chart. the blue line, the pallets. the dollar. the white line, the u.k. economic surprise index. it measures data. to what extent is it beating estimates? as you can see, since brexit,
rising the surprise index. on june 23.two we will look at another inverse correlation, interesting between clinton polls and pharmaceuticals. the blue line, clinton polls, white line, nova shares. they got hammered on friday. pharmaceutical and biotech stocks took a hit. black rock noting complaints over clinton's prices. the shares only gaining. it will be fascinating to see how the shares fair in the next week. more pressure on clinton from the fbi. to inverse correlations, vonnie.
two for the price of one. i am spoiling you today. vonnie: i think that is how it goes. thank you, mark, i do feel spoiled. it is one of the prospects for how they are looking at elections as well. we always talk about the mexican peso. so many japanese companies, speculators, and carrier traders will. we are looking to see what will happen on election day. stillt comes to yields, sticking below the 2% mark. we are seeing a widening there . 98 basis points, nothing to write home about. now.above 47 the major averages, the dow up
15 points. s&p up about a quarter of 1%. moveasdaq up, no huge there. mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. mark c.: thank you. managerrump campaign says he will not make a e-mail discovery the centerpiece of his campaign against hillary clinton. over the weekend, houston to hammer relentlessly against clinton. kellyanne conway says he will focus on job creation. italy has been rocked by the third powerful earthquake in two months. more from rome. the earthquake destroyed a cathedral, a medieval tower, and scores of other landmarks in the
central region. the quake was magnitude 6.6, the strongest the italy in 36 years. matteo renzi says the nation has been shaken by the series of earthquakes. the entire quakes have left 15,000 people homeless. authorities say a tip from a farmer led them to a rule oklahoma location where a murder suspect had been camping out for nearly a week. he was shot and killed by a state trooper. he had been on the run since october 23, accused in a violent string of crimes, including the death of two relatives and the wounding of two police officers. authorities say that he posted photos on facebook documented his run from police. about 300rt says million children around the .orld breeds highly toxic air more than two thirds of them live in southern asia. there are some areas where air pollution is about six times the safe level.
global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. back to you in london. mark b.: thank you very much. government bonds set here in part because the u.k. will prioritize immigration control over single market membership. higginstalk more, helen . lovely chart. the worst month, alan. back to to this goes the flag. this is the 50 basis point increase in the 10 year. what is going on? >> an interesting chart. one. 50 to also, a double whammy. a very high interest rate
market. losses on the index will be very large this month. it was not supported by the income stream. an awful lot of risk. mark b.: we ran a story a couple weeks ago saying the long end of the market, which is the most popular could be about to explode here he does that mean we reduce duration? longry few people have an it. global fixed income. we think it is right to reduce. i would be surprised, how many people are long out there? i was thinking of you. bought 100 year debt. mark b.: mexico? >> that was when yields were a
lot higher. people did not understand the duration was not so high. those days are long gone. no more looking at these crazy high yields. vonnie: let's take a look at some 10 year yields right now. the u.s.. years for which offers the best value right now? >> normally, we would say the u.s. you have to hedge the currency out. the u.s. is less attractive. japanese investors, for example, .ave to reach into credit i don't think there is an awful
lot of value in any of those. ironically, hedging back into dollars is much more attractive. vonnie: i was thinking about that a little bit in my day .heck, when it comes to japan tell us a little bit about the idea that you would be interested in corporate. will we continue to see if the fed does move in december, how long more candies companies continue? >> if companies can, they will. broadly.two categories companies can take advantage of these great. if he can get that through, there will be a huge supply of jp morgan.
probably in europe, poster childg the of that. they can effectively subsidize dividends for cash efficient coupons. mark b.: look at my chart of the month, literally, a chart of october. what happened? stocks down 1% globally. .he dollar did well why did the assets not fare so well? >> you looked at dollar-yen earlier, normally in a risk off environment, you see a wrist trend. we didn't. u.s.. the
action, you saw some positive in japan. one risk on passively from the above is financial debt. mark b.: we will come to that in a second. stay there. stick around. breaking news. vonnie: yes. the stocks of brocade communications systems have been halted. it is in advance talks to sell itself. the deal was said to be announced as early as this week. before it was halted, it was up 7%. there, broadcom, a potential buyer. the merger would unite the two biggest daily fantasy sports
mark b.: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. this is the european close on bloomberg television. theresa may has positively throat her weight behind mark carney, adding her voice to the debate. policy decision will be announced on friday. meanwhile, we would hear from the fed on friday. allen higgins still here with
some analysis. before we get to the central banks, get to the cocoas. bank, this one right here, did not get down to levels we fell in february, but still sitting on 72 cents of the pound great >> the most risky one probably out there. and, the most famous one. as you can see from the graph, it plummeted in february. the whole market tainted in february. still trading at distressed levels. in the case of cocoas, we are a customer of the fund management industry. .e are not typically cocoas on a look through basis, there would be some small equations. if you look away from the door shut -- deutsche --
mark b.: what kind of the yields are you getting? >> you can see this 1, 7 .8. i prefer to be much more diversified and have tap-in big -- champion banks across the world. mark b.: you are exposed via the industry. do you get to choose what you are exposed to or not? >> no. we choose managers. i will probably get some e-mails. leading funds out there, algebra and pimco. we own those. that is where we get the exposure principally to the market. it performed well last month. we do think it is the sweet spot. thanks is a profitability issue not a solvency issue your bank credits is the
place to be. mark b.: elsewhere, i will move away from central banks. have you been buying sterling all the way down? >> just a little bit. they trend. the way to look at the value of the adjusted exchange rate, for example, the economist, you know what that raise rate is? 170. that is an indication, although somewhat lighthearted of where the value is.
if you look at post-brexit, the midsize stocks come back. the properties come back. leaste asset class, or at trading vehicle that has not come back is sterling. a rough low ofe sterling. where will it bottom against the dollar? that crazy night in asia, would be spiked down and came back is bottom. it is low-quality trade. the way we look at it from a private banking point of view is accumulation overtime. raising why hasn't been rising? to be fair, there is more to it. there is a large count deficit onk carney, we do rely
strangers, don't we. there is more to it. having said that, the u.s. has and 1975.e deficits the way we look at it is a geopolitical events, we like to go against the trends. andher it be personal debt 2012 or bonds back in 24, sterling is one trend. health care looks interesting. insk b.: if hillary clinton wi h -- mark b.: they will be hit already. they are starting to discount the clinton victory, one. also, how much will she be able to achieve. look at obamacare. us of checks and balance, hard to get stuff through?
mark b.: will clinton when win?ll > -- >> i think so, but look at brexit. roulette type of odds, i would not like to play russian roulette. , would it be a disaster if he said, that is it, i have had enough. >> it depends how it is managed. well-informed whispers seems to be that he wants to stay. is personal reasons, it
does he to be managed well. mark b.: we still have until march 18. it is not like it is tomorrow. >> exactly. no doubt, it would be a very weak days for sterling. mark b.: you like some cocoas. >> the whole sector. we buy funds. we diversify. mark b.: give me something else. i like the outlandish bets, things that people talk about every day. something sexy. >> we still have russian equities and russian dollar bonds. it still seems to be a contrary bet. -- russia has always a cheap market. now it is a bit of an oil play. we are willing to do some things that maybe some other banks aren't. mark b.: good to see you. alan is at tennis coach, by the way. program. the special wednesday.ides on
it found that blacks in seattle faced a noticeably longer wait time. it included some 1500 rights. bloomberge latest business flash. take it away. european equities finished the session. we fell for six consecutive days. that has not happened since february. the winning asset class in october was commodities. the commodity index is flat for the month. sterling declining. bloomberg markets america continues. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, covering stories from houston to washington and brussels this hour. hillary clinton's allies escalate -- attacks on james comey. creating a $32 billion oil services china. watching, julie hyman is here to give us a synopsis of what is going on. julie: according to people familiar with the plans,
advanced talks to sell itself according to people familiar with a bloomberg news scoop. the trigger volatility stocks here. have potential buyer be named here is broadcom. a lot of activity within the industry. a little bit more positively than stocks were out of the gate this morning. the s&p and nasdaq performing a little better on a relative basis. it looks like there was not a necessarily fundamentalist catalyst. delays closed over in the u.k. with the pound rising in that had an effect on the dollar, now
little changed. bank of a lot of central meetings, we are seeing a pullback in a yield across the board. a reversal through much of october. move.not a huge looking at some of the groups on the move today on the imap, which looks at the sectors in the s&p 500. getting a little relief, energy is to the downside is oil prices fall. got some news coming out . selling one of its units to an affiliated company. estimates.at
stocks with the most to gain in the s&p 500 include amazon, saying this morning it gained a share in the third quarter. we have got chevron rising on an upgrade over at goldman sachs. you.r: thank mark crumpton is in the newsroom with more. mark: the latest news about hillary clinton's emails appears to be having impact on her support. according to a tracking survey, clinton holds a 36 to 45 lead over donald trump nationwide. last week, the same poll had clinton at a 12 point lead. this was taken after james comey said the bureau had discovered files that may contain the -- pertain to the investigation of secretary clinton's e-mails.
eric holder is blasting director call me. holder rights in a washington post op-ed that james comey has released a torrent of conspiracy. zen misrepresentations. respects james comey but "good men make mistakes." china is the world's's largest producer and consumer of coal. more than 1000 outdated minds. in sports come the indians will have a chance to clinch their first title since 1948 in front of their fans to moderate and game six of the world series. the cubs avoided elimination by winning at wrigley field wednesday night. jake is scheduled to start for the cubs.
news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. timeout for the bloomberg markets deals report. business ande m&a biggest players behind the deal. a strong deal for m&a with over 32 deals with more than $10 billion. site of the $36 billion protest at we him merger. $11.3 billion, and british americans $47 billion purchase. he joins bloomberg's executive editor of m&a. >> thank you. happy halloween, bob. and busy weekend for you
everyone at m&a land. >> every weekend, it has been busy recently. >> a big telecom deal. this will end up being the m&a, whatnth ever in is going on? i would think an election would make people slow down and be concerned and worried. it does not appear that has had any impact at all. >> i think the election would have mattered if equity prices would be more volatile. one thing is there has been incredibly stable equity prices for large companies. a lot of these big deals typically involve equity. that is helpful. fundamental factors are very strong. august and september was a little light. cannot think anything will approximate the first -- fourth quarter of last year.
it is very strong and they are still there. good for m&a because that is how they get growth. very accommodating in capital markets. >> are those deals any harder? two they take any time? what is -- deals any harder? two they take any time? difficult regulatory environment. size matters. that was the time warner deal. size matters. no question. we are in a because challenging regulatory environment now. there have been more deals than the last six
years or something like that combined. regulators say what do you expect? at them,ave to look but time warner, not a horizontal deal at all. >> right. ge and baker hughes, not a normal merger. ge will own 60%. that is not a space that has been slow. we talked earlier about how it surprise you we have not seen more big deals in the oil and gas space. there isularly because so much capital needed in the startups and the frackers and all of the rest of it. oilfield services, mostly what baker uses, a more mature business and it is not challenged in any way from a bounce sheet standpoint. they had very difficult balance we have seenons
100 bankruptcies. >> someone took a run at apache so far and that deal never ended up happening. would you have anticipated as youprices stabilize, would anticipate more deals coming off of that? >> i think so. quartert him a first this year, there were a lot of frackers that went to bank c. i thought other people would swoop in and snap those up here they did not do it. theories tolot of that. one of them being bigger companies. >> exxon or chevron. >> some of them are mid-majors. some of them may have cut the dividend. i just laid off all these people
and cut my budget. i still think there will be a lot of activity in that space. predictable in a foreign country where you cannot -- >> foreign countries, emerging iskets, what he think that going on? why are there so many deals going that way? the targets are more open to it. one thing that kept the frackers from being acquired in the u.s., america, this -- the capital markets have been there. around close to 50 right now.
it has always been built on m&a. >> let jump starts it? is that the kind of thing that gets others looking? >> i think you need to see something in the emp space, something significant. it is just a world of its own p are you see something in the $5 billion range, some people will start taking a look. it is not like what they say about the copycat league. there is something about it in terms of scarcity of assets and whether it is ok to go on your board room and say i will do this and all the rest of it. there is something about breaking this. >> people talk about exxon or chevron, is of the kind of thing
from her tenure on secretary state is having an impact on the polls. the washington post tracking poll shows clinton holding it would six to 45 lead over donald trump nationwide. the sample had clinton with a 12 point lead. joining us now is an brodie in washington. looking at l.a. times, bloomberg politics now, a two-way race would be favorable to trumpet this point. your reaction friday? >> absolutely. one thing we see happening in the holes is republicans coming home to trump p or that is why his running mate mike pence had asked him to do it. he has the support of a few percentage points fewer than republicans than clinton has with democrats. raceally just because the is coming to a close but partially also because of the news and worried they have about
hillary clinton, they're coming home and getting ready to support donald trump. that is making the race much closer. to trump.e it seems a few percentage points are happening. .t could be a big problem get anyif we do not clarification on what exactly is it end upails, does changing a single vote on the ballots? >> it may very well. a smallnumber of them, number of votes can make a big difference. it is early but suggests somewhere between four and six or five and 7% of democrats, people almost certainly who were with clinton. people were less likely to vote.
the other thing is they could , saint director comey of the fbi had been highly political. they may start to say the race is against us and we will come out and make sure we make a visible showing. nows tough to say right what the results could be especially in the states they establish in pennsylvania and north carolina. >> how are they handling threading the needle on whether or not to push more clear language on -- from the fbi. kind of liking the ambiguity but perhaps there is something more damaging there. how are both groups going about this? >> exactly. we had heard bipartisan calls from the fbi to give more
information. those were largely -- from the republican side, we do not hear nearly as much. out there today saying we want the fbi to do with they would normally do and treat this as a standard case. in a standard case, the fbi would not be say much at all. the questions about what could enough tor are good help them, even if there were something worse in there, it is good enough to have the ambiguity. and that had come out of similar calls for information. battle a lot of the happen in congress, a lot of the politics and the fighting happen there. she is continuing to prosecute the message that donald trump, in her view, is unacceptable to be president. likelihoodt is the that was not a surprise and there is another product -- surprise to come?
>> i do not want to make any guarantees because every time i have, i have been wrong. we will continue to read wikileaks and stay on the fbi and continue to us for any kinds of developments on the story to come from either candidate. vonnie: we will be covering this. coming off, we will have more on the election after the break. wrapping up his endorsement of donald trump. details are next. this is bloomberg. ♪
support of donald trump at a press conference in washington, d.c. says he is not crazy and is not going away. for more, cory johnson in san francisco. it was a wide ranging's beach. talked about women as well. >> i think this gets to the heart of the matter. he is game part of an oppressed minority and also a billionaire who has made a lot of money and business. the notion that donald trump's comments about other minorities and comments about women gets to the heart of the matter. he has been called to the carpet about his support at silicon valley not just because he is a republican supporting a , this is largely democratic, but also because of
the notion of this means for minorities. not really defending donald trump's comments. >> i do not agree with everything donald trump is said and done. the millions of her ople voted for him do either. no one faces, spell women were acceptable. agree they were clearly offensive and inappropriate. >> really not trying to defend those but suggesting there are reasons people support donald trump us candidacy and want someone to be president other than hillary clinton. >> how has this changed their opinion on him? is he viewed as a different person than he was before? >> absolutely. this is particularly played outcome measures how you support
the person, but how do you support the kind of comments in the kind of abuse. there have been calls for him to stageoved from the early startup fund and in both cases, you had the leaders of those groups, leaked widely and often as an e-mail saying look, how can you claim to be a company that supports diversity him and kick them off the board because it represents the other half of the country. the debate continues as to whether or not it is a sexism or racism race anything, and whether that is an issue that should be carried out. -- i thinkt josh jeff bezos had the line, contrarians are usually wrong. the speech aref what he said at the convention,
china suggest he was not supporting everything donald trump believed because there were reasons, for example, he is gay and proud to "proud to be an american. here as well, he is suggesting he does not support what donald trum says. a fundamentally, there is battle in the republican party. we see this playing out, whether it is a party of ideals, circling the rep -- circling the the wagon. even joe clutches of abortion, race, marriage equality. peter thiel steps in and says, there are issues not being spoken about. he is one of the important things is the endless war. >> chum voters are also tired of war. we have been at war for 15 years
. we have spent more than $4.6 trillion. more than 2 million people have lost their lives and more than 5000 american soldiers have been killed. but we have not one. lose,donald trump or to we are looking at new ways and new voices to lead the public party in the future. vonnie: peter thiel have its vivid cofounder -- two graded come back to the system. oliver: we will have more on this in about three minutes on bloomberg markets on bloomberg radio. next, the major players in the deal combined oil and gas is this, baker hughes. this is bloomberg. ♪ seeing is believing, and that's why
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there's more in store than you imagine. visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. speed always wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. vonnie: a cool day in new york city.
live, i am vonnie quinn. oliver: this is bloomberg markets p let's start with headlines this afternoon. mark crumpton is in the newsroom with more. mark: a lawsuit filed in federal court today to start north carolina counties from her moving people from voter rolls through challenges filed by individuals. the national voter registration act prohibits clearing names with more than 90 days from the federal election. the law does not place the same restraint on individual challenges. the islamic state has claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing at a popular baghdad market that killed at least 10 people and left dozens more wounded. this was one of several in the iraqi capital over the weekend which left a total of 17 people dead. italy has been rocked by his third powerful earthquake in two months. john reports from rome. >> no deaths have been reported but the earthquakes have
destroyed a cathedral, a medieval tower, and other landmarks in the central regions. 6.6,lick was a magnitude the strongest in 36 years. theprime minister says macon -- the nation is being shaken. --mark: the italian quake have left whether 1000 people homeless. eastern outskirts of moles appear to iraqi special forces are located less than one mile from the city limits. the city from the islamic state, now in its third week. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. bloomberg. back to you. vonnie: thanks. let's get back to one of the big deals of the day. ands combining oil and gas,
on the terms of the deal, ge would contribute oil and gas business and $7.4 billion to a special one-time cash divind -- $17.50 per share. baker hughes down 6%. steel, today, alix bigger he's chairman and ceo. asked why the $409 in revenue opportunities or part of the deal, actually more. we think that is a modest projection. again, if you are able to play in a much broader array of the oil and gas sector and you ge's isff stream with more midstream, downstream
domain, then you can go to the customer committee and have a conversation about improving recovery factors in optimizing production. all of the urging issues facing customers. no one can do that right now and we look phone to getting this through the regulatory environment as quickly as possible and quickly act as one seamless, oil and gas industrial company. >> a quick follow-up to that, can you expand on the $400 million worth of synergy? where do you see it getting too? >> i do not want to put a limit on it. . very modest number you tell me what the oil prices will be two years from now and what our customer spending patterns are. could go well north based on what the spent pattern is out there.
bias, still big facing some headwinds, but again, whatever the global economy will look like, they will very much provide that synergy number. modest projection. >> let's revisit the question of why now. your oil price is relatively conservative. >> if you look at giving value , we havestomers modeled the transaction in multiple scenarios. thing, you look at the
nature, by bringing in the store. again, you get that through the product cost out initiatives, the footprints, the ability to take the manufacturing make a huge manufacturing footprint and we see this as being the right time and really providing value to an our customers needed in each segment. the cost of a barrel. are going after. >> you were burnt pretty bad. the baker hughes merger was tied up for years. he did not wind up getting done. are you looking at the deal like you did halliburton and baker hughes? >> it is a different set of
circumstances. overlap.le -- we haveouping done our homework. both sides have. outside counsel on both sides. very supportive of this for some of the reasons lorenzo mentioned. being in the health of the cost it will only occur as a result of bringing the capability sets from both baker hughes and ge together. as regulatory bodies should, they will look at competition and markets, and that what this does for the customer. experience with this and we feel comfortable with the outlook.
>> one area where there seems to be overlap is artificial lift. a 46 percent share. >> we've got to go through the process and work with doj and we will be proactive in that. offshore and onshore. who are constructively with the department of justice. >> now you have the whole enchilada. >> which only a few of the assets were available.
a great company, and bring that into a better portfolio. >> we talk a lot about the industry and i want to see when you see pricing power coming back to the oil services company. wendy's start to get raising prices? >> that is a great question. will come back and pockets geographically as well as in perspective portfolios. as we sat on the earnings call last week, a slow grind in north america. we believe the customer community needs something around 55 and 60 for some durable time, particularng on that company, to where they have the
confidence that they can begin deploying capital in a meaningful way. sending on the product time, particularly the technology-based ones, you will get it pretty quickly. like i said on the call last week, some of our high-end services pretty much sold out. i would expect the artificial lift. areas around fracking, it could be a little but slower to get pricing. international, certainly middle east is already picking up. offshore markets will be a little slower to recover. combinationf the companies comes together, helping companies get cost per barrel down. should bring the whole activity forward a little bit. -- ie: up, finallyng signing a tray pack for the eu. more details on the deal. this is bloomberg. ♪
bond market. big global rout in the bond. looking at the aggregate index. we have seen a total return of -3% month of october. to may 2013.ack ben bernanke signaled that the fed era of bob i might be slowing down or even coming to an end. been notable this month. not justt has been going up in the united states but in december. playing on not just in global bonds, but thinking here in the united states, which we are seeing now, the yield on it at 1.7 5% or so.
if you map it out on the the s&p 500rminal, i performede here, the other two asset classes it interesting turn that even though we have seen stocks have positive returns, they are done even better. class for that. for the is time now biggest business story in the news right now. credit space cut costs by sharing service and another lender.
times early talks -- credit suisse may announce more details at an investor day in december. considering ways to manage the rising cost after prices for the drug rose 20%. costs,llenge is managing which can result in resistance to medication. credit suisse will announce it new plans and autumn. flashing their lineup before the holidays, looking to retailers, far fewer purchase this year as -- rolled up 41% of the brand in the fourth quarter. that is putting pressure on the handbag makers and may also lead to submerge it -- some mergers. users andl elect start cars with smartphones. the system eliminates the need
for a physical key. they will test system with a car sharing service starting in january. for a physical key. money was put in earlier this month. a second chance at u.s. army contracts, the combat data system. ruled theyudge violated rules by failing to consider commercial options. awarding the contract in order to reevaluate its commercial offering. that is your bloomberg business flash update. >> the canadian prime minister file a tray pack with european union. finally threatening to derail the entire yields. the company has of economic trade agreement will cut eu manufacturers by $549 million or year. let's bring mark in in toronto.
lemire -- or midas with the objections were and how they >> just to remind people, this is a french-speaking region in southern belgium that only makes up about 1% of the european union population. it held a lot of sway and has a lot of power. a main concern was how disputes with multinational operations would be handled. concerned that the environment, jobs, agriculture, and many of them feel in the region that multinationals would have too much power in dispute with the european union. held is eu members have to prove that. that is just on hold right now and will not come in if it ever does for a year or two. there was an assurance that they will be listened to hear.
they were not given an ultimatum by the european union. so we have a provisional agreement. it is not the full trade agreement. we will work on that over the next year or two. the next european president said what appeared to be the disintegration of the western community is not lasting and it shows if we show some strengthen termination, we can get things done. >> it seems like canada wants to get this done. how does it work for them? >> both sides are supposed to benefit. we have seen estimates that gross domestic output for the european union and canada should increase about 20%. 96% of the agreement will come into place and you have got tariffs getting cut 98% and after seven years, 99%. you're looking at output and the eu rising annually estimated about $13 billion.
there are still restrictions of both sides, protecting certain parts of their economy such as natural resources and alcohol as well. said ite minister has should at a lot of jobs and help middle-class and he's quite positive on it. could another region or a region in canada even derail this now or is this a done deal? good point because we are always talking that the eu but this agreement has to be approved by the provinces and territories in canada. every country in the eu, each legislature has to approve it as well. belgium has already said they may look at this investment system and force it to the european court of justice to see if it is legal. like thesafely do not way things are going as the we couldt moves along,
ask for an annual review. if we do not like the way things are going, we could tell. it is not a done deal. they do have a deal so far. vonnie: thank you for that, mark bunting. today on what did you miss, president of financial insights on the market outlook ahead of the u.s. presidential election. that is at 4:00 p.m. eastern. >> coming up next, bravo beginning the trump family fortune. we will talk about that. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: you may think cap only gets income from real estate -- the true beginnings of donald trump's family money. came to the trump u.s. from germany in the 1880's. there were a lot of germans coming to the u.s. at that point. he started out in new york with a barbershop and decided he could make more money west. still higher gold rush time. he went to seattle in the western washington state and the gold rush took him to up in canada. he started a restaurant in the trail that aon the
lot of miners were taking had a key staffing point en route to her people were going to pay for gold. establishmentf was the arctic? -was actlwhat you would expect on the frontier gold rush. they serve oysters and had a lot of dues and they had women for the miners who had goal to pay for them. i do not think it was unique, but they went and pulled archival news paper clippings from that time and there were it was of the arctic and described as there were private boxes where you could pay for brand-newsing the coal dust you adjust for -- just acquired. there were some mornings of newspaper clippings that women of good repute should not go
there by themselves. costly or not even going to touch that right now. he did well and made a fair amount of my doing this. >> sure. is your chances of striking gold were not that high if you went out that the chances of making a lot of money on these guys because they wanted to eat and drink and find some women, that was pretty good. fred trump and his partner ernest did very well with the and itant, so well that basically got bypassed when the rolled was -- railroad was built . they did well enough that they dismantle the restaurant and took it up the river to whitehorse, which was then the point.g stopping i think they felt they had a good business on their hands. story onn read this
the latest bloomberg business week. oliver: coming up on bloomberg markets, the chief investment strategist who has $110 billion in assets under management come will discuss the latest market moves ahead of the u.s. election, where it has an pretty quiet in things pick up a little bit ahead of the new report containing polls. all of that is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪ matt: we are getting breaking news out of london about the governor of the bank of england. let's bring in mike mckee. mike: there were questions about whether he would say was originally hired in 2013 four five-year time. he said he would stay for five years. the number of people who represented the lead campaign criticizes his role in suggesting the economy would be in bad shape. some say he might lead even earlier.
he wants to see through the article 50 brexit process, when they treat you -- triggered article 50. out.nts to be able to help he is pleased that time he would stay in praises a highly effective leadership. said heon treason may is the best man coming went to the conference earlier this month and suggested the bank of england policy have been negative overall economy. some people took that as she won to get rid of carb day but everyone seems to be on the same page, mark carney is staying. scarlet: is this a distract -- a distraction to investors in markets? >> their widely expected to stay economy hasuse the not shown widespread fears and the data that widespread fears,
that they would go down after the vote. matt: clinical ambitions at home and in canada. >> some people suggested he might want to run for office in canada. there is no opening to go back to. connie might have gone to wall street or something like that. for mark carney, it is exciting as well. >> it got a little like higher on the headlines of mark carney would stay on the full term. it is still holding at multiyear
lows. 31 year lows. >> adding a next her year on, six years. we will see what happens than. he is going to stay long enough the united kingdom through the triggering of article 50. scarlet: thank you for getting on and joining us with breaking news. matt: let's check on how the markets are reacting. the pound is deftly making the highs of the session. u.s. stocks are little changed. all three major averages are still in the green, just barely, as if s&p does hold on to the gains, it will be the first day in five that there has been an increase. the so-called heat map of whatever asset you are looking at, this looks back over the past five years and months,
month by month. if you come over to october, you see a 1.8% decline in the s&p 500 and it would be the worst of going back to january. the first negative october since 2012. notably negative month here. getting back to tay'session , orthopedicclients device maker coming out with a forecast, cutting its revenue forecast and to take your. weakness because of a change to the company'supply , that led to shortfalls in the quarter. chart towing the today show the big gap downward. also weakness in athletic related shares. bank of america with merrill lynch, the price target lasted to a low of $46.
test do with the expectation for continued market share losses. gopro trading lower after negative commentary, and murphy re: has underweight on the stock. , appears to be getting caught in the downdraft with the other two appeared a quick mention of oil. to is now trading close seven dollars, down by 3.3%, no of him and opec meeting, causing that tunnel -- tumble. >> we will continue to monitor oil. in the meantime, you look at u.s. stocks and are stuck in the worst rut since 2006. there are 5 -- signs specifically in equity correlation. you will see that in the top panel, the implied correlation of the s&p 500, you can see they
late october up 21. the bottom panel shows the 30 day realized correlation among s&p 500 members is down about 34% from october of 15. let's bring in bruce, chief investment strategist who joins us live phone from florida. at how equity correlations are starting to break down. what is that signal? >> of the market has changed character. opportunities going forward, i think they open up as opposed to in the market is totally correlated. for money managers, i think there is opportunity going forward. floods do you think about the news and oil? it is doing so again today. it had been doing so again today. does the market moves with oil at year-end?
>> i do not think so. if the market has moved away from the oil story. oil has been trading between 40 and 50. i do not think anyone expected to break out of the range anytime soon. the markets are concerned about what is going to and whatter november 8 will the interest rate picture look like at year-end as well? there is a lot at -- a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines. more than $50 trillion of cash sitting on the sidelines. does that mean they will be a huge infusion of cash after the election a matter who wins simply because the election is over? >> historically, that is the case. the market trades like it is now in october and front of the election. that it rallies after the election regardless of the outcome. the markets have a history of doing much better
short-term if the income of party wins the election and although the market rallies even if theection other party wins, the rally is less effective. the market has a history of going up after the election. a rate hike -- rate hike after that election could throw a hike in the rent. they will not be quite as accommodated as they have been over the last year. >> i think that is right. it is a transition going on here whether we will move on the interest rate stock market to one more of corporate earnings. that is what is going on here. known anddely probably by the time we get to the middle of the december, that will be built into the market. i am not sure that will cause the market to stumble.
we saw third-quarter gdp pop up at 2.9%. it looks to me like third-quarter earnings will come in pretty good and above expectations. consensus had been that earnings have fallen 2% in the third quarter and that looks like they may be up 1% overall, even if you include the dismal report for most of the energy companies. matt: yes. they will beat expectations no matter what because analysts lowered expectations and to the corner and s&p companies historically always beat expectations. go here on the terminal and it shows you how earnings have done relative to same quarter a year ago. we are up one point 5%, as are as eps is concerned, and yet sales growth of 1.5% as well. it looks like the earnings per session we have seen has come to an end. do you think this trend will carry on? think it will and it is
almost a necessity given the evaluations we have seen in the market. if we will have -- if we will be havereliant, we will not the luxury in the future and earnings will play a larger role. the fact that we may have turned a corner here is very important. matt: thank you. scarlet: coming up, a choice of the mostn one unconventional presidential races in modern history. we will get more on the fallout on the fbi's's decision to once again look on -- look at hillary clinton by these e-mails. ♪this is bloomberg. ♪
draft friday is already having an impact in the polls. an abc news washington post tracking polls shows clinton holds a lead over donald trump nationwide. lastly, the same poll had clinton with a 12 point lead. covering across all platforms, joined us now from washington, this did indeed have a big effect. mostught initially democrats who vote for hillary will still vote for hillary. >> that is how it looks at this point. there is a panic two days ago partly because the clinton campaign was blindsided by that development. see beyond the battleground state polls, tightening of the race but perhaps not enough to change the outcome of the race, so you have democrats looking ahead maybe
until tuesday or wednesday to get a better sense once this peaks and comes down again about where things really lie. they are trying to calibrate how much to tackle criticism as they have been doing and how much they want to move on. she doesn't really want to keep the issu alive. >> she wants to move the conversation forward certainly. the white house has responded and said james comey had not hit the scale in the election. a wonder whether the doj has said anything or is like to before the election given that there are all kinds of leaks that the doj had recommended james comey not go forth with any statement and he defied them in putting out the letter. >> we will certainly -- i was talking with our fbi and justice reporter earlier about expectations on what will happen. he thinks it is likely will get
more clarity in the next few days if not from the fbi than the -- the justice department overall. earnestentioned, josh trying to tempt down the frenzy in harry reid, josh earnest saying the president has confidence in fbi director comey and is completely confident director comey had not taken any steps to try to influence the outcome of the election. we would hear from president obama later in the week. he will do a couple of high-profile interviews and is certain to be asked about this. about theme ask you clinton campaign's vice chairwoman. a lot of politicians would have dropped her a long time ago because of her marriage to anthony weiner. now, probably the biggest problem of all for hillary clinton. >> hillary clinton not only
deeply values loyalty but has had a relationship with aberdeen ast has been described between a mother and daughter. it is almost unimaginable that hillary clinton herself was severed ties. the campaign also particularly sympathetic in a personal matter as well as politics. us aank you for giving much needed perspective. matt: still ahead, another busy merger monday. we will go behind the scenes to the level three deal. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> thank you so much. welcome everybody. technology media and telecom m&a reporter a here at bloomberg news. ands start with centurylink level three. a big deal. >> it certainly is. less two companies more or merged in. is not as sexy or flashy as some of the telecom deals. much about the elements of these two companies coming together, meaning they one is thets backbone of the internet. they are legacy companies here at centurylink started as a landline company. they have acquired a lot of the companies along the way and they also sell products to business
customers. in other words, level three products to businesses, now they can sort of cell the products to a set of customers really. reason for the deal is tax purposes. both companies spend a lot of money laying fiber 10 or 20 years ago, did not make any money on it, so the rest of billions of dollars of losses and now they have billions in net operating losses that they can use on a carry forward basis. it makes sense from a tax benefit for both companies to do this. >> telecom deals are about swapping them forward, not necessarily about strategic plans about how they will offer more cheaply as a combined unit. >> these companies have struggled. scale withseparate
centurylink selling data center business. companies have bumbled along a little bit here they keep acquiring companies because they are about to seek growth from other avenues. but there is no doubt about it that in any industry where you are sort of stumbling to find growth, doing larger and larger acquisitions, that is the way to go. we have seen it in center -- cable providers and this is an option with the business and telecom service companies. it does not necessarily guarantee a steady path. >> certainly not. if you're in the landline business, you have known for a long time it will not be extraordinary moving forward. you try to maximize value shareholders and there is about $1 billion of synergies the company has announced today. atthe seattle seahawks play the field?
>> level three. they could have used some synergy yesterday based on performance. make someturylink other company out there say wake up, i'm going to do something? >> probably not. these -- i would imagine there will probably not be another bidder for level three. there are not many companies in the world. >> i want to switch to the ge deal. it is interesting to me. not only are they emerging these assets in natural gas, but as a company that might make an evaluation of oil that comes back here, make a better evaluation of her time than it would within either company. >> the idea of spinning out a
company, severally related company, we have seen this quite a few times this year. good result from an investor standpoint. with hpn computer sciences. hpe, we saw it again with micro focus, where they carve it out and now and that we did not trade completely separately. herenk both companies ,robably saw a pattern, quasi- i do not know if you would call this one a reverse -- anyway, an idea of carving out a publicly traded entity, the market seems to like it. i think they used a recent precedent. story came out with a saying there in advanced talks to sell himself. >> from our understanding, as early as even friday of this week. our understanding, running
a sales process. this is not a one-on-one. several parties, about a three point billion dollar networking company speaking as the backbone of the internet, switching the router similar to cisco. we hear broadcom is one of the suitors interested here. another company similar to level three centurylink that has acquired its way to become a really big player. that is now $65 billion company. there may be others but we should find out fairly soon. requested is interesting to see how the stored and network coming together in terms of semiconductor design. is that the lease their that broadcom is a company involved in more chipmaking, more storage for companies? >> i do not know. sense, something the equity might play here. google's and amazon are
getting into this, more and more, it could make sense. >> thank you so much. back to scarlet and matt. scarlet: you can also catch more radio interviews on serious and them on the bloomberg. we coming back down to session lows. the s&p basic the unchanged while the dow is falling 10 points and then as that, although a red arrow there, also unchanged. at the assets trading other than equities. you can see down 3.7%, it looks like the market wants to follow crude today. opec cuts or an
let's get a check on commodity markets with julie hyman. seen oil tumble, down the most in a single day and at its lowest in about a month, getting below $47 a barrel and closing at the lows of the session after the opec meeting in vienna, failing to come to an agreement on production. oil has seesawed on hopes that they would come to some sort of concrete agreement, so this disappointment is being reflected in the price today. you can extrapolate out and look at the other prices -- heating oil futures down 3.5%, gasoline down and natural gas as well falling on the day. we talked a little bit about halloween last week. today is halloween, so we thought we should look at sugar and cocoa in the commodity markets. sugar falling for what traders they are technical reasons, down the most in about three weeks.
cocoa trading a little lower. over the past years, if you look at cocoa versus sugar, you can look at that and we have cocoa and orange, sugar and white and most pertinent to us going into halloween is looking at the end of this chart were we have sugar prices coming up and cocoa prices going down. some implications for your halloween candy buying, but prices have gone down a little bit. any daygood news format of the year, but have -- perhaps especially today. always a fully stocked candy closet in my house. now let's dig into the big oil play of the day. ge is joining forces with acre a $32 billionte deal.ant
here's what the ceo had to say about the return of pricing power. >> we believe our customer community needs something between 55 and 60 four some durable time depending on that particular company to where they have the confidence that they can begin deploying capital in a meaningful way. deal, we more on this are joined by our bloomberg energy reporter. is now the right time to do a deal like this? so because it's a the bottom of the cycle and for this kind of deal, neither side is really selling out, so shareholders don't feel like they are missing out on the upside. if you are going to partner and not feel like you are paying a premium or exposing any cost to doing this kind of deal, this might seem like the right time to do it. scarlet: do we think of it as a
joint venture since it is not an out and out takeover? even though ge will retain control, it really does feel like more of a joint venture, equal partnership kind of thing. you have buy-in from both sides with the ceos having a piece in the leadership of the company, but you have some different business lines and acre hughes brings a lot of test the oil services world, but ge brings a lot of half in the making of equipment and even bigger than that, the sales network they provide to baker hughes, so both feel like they are taking advantage of the other. obviously, they want oil prices to go higher from here, but can they survive at $46 a barrel? like to have ad higher, certainly but more of these oil services companies are having to partner with each
other with this kind of view in mind. more ceos are saying a lower for longer for oil prices, partnerare having this up with their peers to survive this $40, $50 oil for longer. a not only have to offer a better proposition for the customers, but they have to work on their own balance sheet as well. thank you so much. our energy reporter joining us from houston. let's get a check on the headlines with mark crumpton. mark: billionaire peter thiel admits the 2016 presidential campaign is a bit crazy but insists it's not nearly as bad as the overall condition of the country. , a venture capitalists donald trump supporter, told the national press club in washington that his backing of the presidential nominee has come at a high personal cost. peter: the advocate, a magazine
that one's praise me as a gay innovator, publish an article saying as of now im, and i quote, not a gay man. because i don't agree with their politics. but why behind the buzzword of diversity could not be made more clear. he denounced lewd comments trump made about women and a 2005 the obit says his supporters stand by him because he gets the big things right. the latest news about hillary clinton's emails appears to be having some impact on her support. according to a tracking poll, clinton holds a 46% to 45% lead over donald trump nationwide. last week, it had clinton with a 12 point lead. paul was taken after james comey said the fbi discovered files that may pertain to its investigation of secretary clinton's e-mails. with theicial
democratic national committee who is a cnn analyst allegedly notified secretary clinton's campaign in march about a question to be asked at a town hall debate ring the primaries according to documents posted by wikileaks. she hade-mail saying tipped off the campaign to questions that were supposed to be kept secrets during the primaries when the dnc was ostensibly neutral. defense iney, the the george washington bridge lane closing trial delivered a blistering attack on the government's case and on chris christie. liedrs saying the governor about his knowledge of the scandal to protect his white house ambitions and used kelly as a scapegoat. lawyers also criticized federal prosecutors for failing to call the governor to rebut testimony that he knew about the scheme. governor christie denies any knowledge of the plan. a wearable skin tch may help
children allergic to peanuts by delivering small doses of peanut pertain according to a new study calling for the therapy to be further explored. it works by training the immune system to tolerate small amounts of peanuts. it has not yet been approved by the u.s. fda. for hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: coming up, refined metals are controlling to the expansion. u.s. andmaking the mexico stronger despite what you may have heard of the campaign trail. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. i'm scarlet fu. time for walk the talk where we look at the pressure points of social change and where it is outpacing corporate america's ability to adapt. what would it mean for corporate america if we elect our first theil president? i asked head of an organization that measures gender equality initiatives. a whole think it starts new conversation and i think it is a new aspiration. we always say if you see her, you can be her. the president of the united states is a woman, it's going to become the new norm. it will be ok that women and men can all aspire and be inspired by becoming the next president of the united states. has to the same thing happen in the boardroom. we start 50-50 in the workplace but we end up at about 17% in the sea suite. wedropped significantly, so
need to encourage more diversity, not just because it's nice to have but it is a business imperative. it is good for business. is good for business and when we talk about how to get there, there's an awareness of the gender pay gap and no shortage of lip service. there is a commitment to change and it is growing, but what needs to happen on the national versus the local level? guest: president kennedy initiated the first equal pay teens 63. women were paid $.60 on the dollar and we still have an inequality. wage gap.o discloses it's a silly conversation with women paid $.79 on the dollar, we should pay $.79 for good -- for goods and services. that would be an interesting change in tactics as well.
do hillary clinton or donald trump's policies address the issues of women in the workplace? guest: this is pretty amazing. the united states is number 28 according to the world economic form on gender inequality. in the last year, it has dropped to 44. we are going backwards and one of the biggest problems is we have been admiring the problem. we all understand there's an issue and paying with service to what needs to get done, but we need to just do it. salesforce is a great example of saying we do have an inequality, we live in a technology world, he says it's a one button push. push the button, see where the inequality is, fix it. it might pinch a little bit, but address the issue, fix the issue and create solutions moving forward that won't allow that to happen. scarlet: he is comfortable with disrupting. not so many others are.
5000 companies have to ensure that 40% of nonexecutive directors are women. is that feasible in the u.s.? guest: the problem is there's not a big pool of women to choose from. i think reading quotas is an important step forward, but if we can show the business case example of how diversity is good for business and is driving profitability, creating new cultures of care within organizations, creating more creativity, all of the things that happen when you bring a diverse group of mindset and thought to the table, it drives business change. is doing aomberg great step in that direction on the terminal, the gender equality index. scarlet: thank you for the shameless plug. guest: but it is true. it starts the starting and we have to take the steps to create
accountability. can showcase, but how do you standardize these measures so that what -- what salesforce is looking at, how do you make sure it's what they are looking at at ford? create equality if you can't measure it. measuring the success of the initiatives you put in place will go a long way to driving change. so the association of national advertisers is creating a gender equality metric so that all media and entertainment, we measure how women are portrayed. women in anortray accurate and realistic way and we can show the change. ads and whend 4500 you portray women in an accurate your equityc way, increases and your sales increase over 20%. those are measurable statistics. how do you argue with
that? guest: while gender a quality is nice to have, it is a need to have from scarlet: business success and business growth. scarlet:that was my interview with the founder and ceo of the female quotient. to check out the gender equality chart, go to the bloomberg. me talkingd trump is tough on trade the centerpiece of his campaign. he has argued that the must be scrapped because it is robbing american jobs and moving them to mexico. but in a new column, our at two companies controlling to the u.s. expansion shows one u.s. company doing well in mexico. you are talking about a couple of companies that make things necessary for growth and they are flourishing. it would have to be a
cement company, of course. the biggest cement company in the hemisphere. is thegest single market united states and business is booming. by the end of the summer, the ceo is saying the biggest reason is because the u.s. economy is doing well and is undergoing a bit of a construction boom. the u.s. is consuming cement and it is a reflection of business going in the right direction for mexico, and the u.s. and that is a reflection of nafta working. for the returns year today, the second-best performer in mexico. but there's another company that has to do with industry and getting its business in the united states. guest: here, we are talking but refined metals like gold, zinc and silver.
market, almost 50% of its sales come from the united states. it has been experiencing a brisk business and one reflection of that is kansas city southern, a freight company based in missouri. they have had a job boom of about 9% since the end of the recession. that's a reflection of this business going back and forth, transporting stuff from mexico to the united states. matt: what do you think about the attacks that they are moving small car plants? guest: as usual, the fact are missing. , which is aat ford beneficiary of nafta, as the
automobile companies are, let take a look at ford. where theyigan, is have been producing focus compact vehicles. 3700 jobs will be devoted to making suvs and trucks. they are more profitable and most in demand in the u.s. u.s. market overall is the most profitable market in the world. it is where every automaker wants to be whether it is bmw, mercedes, nissan, toyota, honda and the u.s. three of detroit. they are all in this market benefiting from this. scarlet: so u.s. workers, and the auto sector, they are doing pretty well in addition. what trump taps into is that it
doesn't feel that way for some parts of the population. guest: just like in the 19th we are and 17th century, going through a major transformation in technology and technology is driving change. that has nothing to do with nafta. it has to do with everybody's lives is changing. then there's the number two economy in the world and china is there in china has changed all global trade. muchmade at a cost that is less than the developed world. nafta is not the job killer or job creator that its enthusiasts or detractors would like to believe. it has made american business much more flexible than it was an that is what global investors like about it, that they can see
this northern hemisphere and see that it is functioning a lot better. to put you ong the spot. you started a bloomberg news in 1989 and worked for the "wall street journal" before that. you have been covering elections for decades now. what do you think of the bombshell james comey dropped just days before the election? guest: first of all, i'm not qualified because i'm not a lawyer and i'm not versed in that kind of very difficult subject. that, as a news man, i've never seen anything like this. it's unprecedented that you've never seen the justice department and the fbi dropped such a bombshell literally 10 days before the election. no matter how you look at it, it
doesn't look good from the perspective of the government trying to stay out of the way of an election and letting the people decide. matt: thank you very much. while the market awaits a string of meetings by a major central bank, this week may produce market moving news. we are on central bank watch, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: this is bloomberg markets scarlet:. i matt miller. and i'm scarlet fu. the bank of japan and bank of england are meeting to ponder their next move. joe weisenthal is with us. mark carney just came out and clarified he will stay past the initial five years he agreed to, but not the full eight-year term.
joe: there was a lot of nervous is -- nervousness that he was not going to stick around and he was getting criticized by a lot of politicians. some reporting came out that he was going to stick around and he'she official word that here through 2019. people look at the u.k. and don't see a lot of institutions they feel confident about, mark carney is one person who people feel like he's competent, he's not part of the brexit crew, so the fact that he's sticking around and will continue to maintain the existing monetary policy framework gives people a lot of relief. he started in july of 13 and has promised to stay until june of 19. me, the headline is he's not going to stay for a full term.
joe: 2019 signifies that after the brexit negotiations are over, it might be time for someone new. it's not guaranteed, but they will presumably trickle tread -- presumably trigger article 50. that would put you in the middle of 2019 and whoever the prime willter is then, investors be relieved he's not going anywhere during that time. the bank of japan is tonight. we know they have been out front in terms of being proactive when it comes to thinking of a new framework. they are targeting bond yields as opposed to the monetary base overall. was the last meeting where they talked about trying to manipulate the shape of the curve in a specific way. quantitative easing for the last several years has seen intro banks try to manipulate the curve but never quite so explicitly. meeting isnk this
going to be fireworks but the bank of japan is also known for surprises. and the fed meats, but everyone says that is a dead meeting. joe weisenthal, we will see you in a little bit. you can now watch "-- you can now watch "what'd you miss?" on twitter. i don't know how it works, but i don't know how many things work on my phone. coming up, election experts had to rip up their playbooks on friday when the presidential campaign saw another huge twist. a season finale, if you will. we will discuss the impact on the down ballot races. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: julie hyman there with a bonds. the bad month for let's get to first word news with mark crumpton in the newsroom. is criticizinger james comey, saying that the fbi has opened at least part of the investigation into hillary clinton's e-mails. he says that he has unleashed a torrent of misrepresentations. he says he respects, he but that good men make mistakes. a spokesperson for donald trump says he will not make the e-mail a centerpiece of his campaign. kellyanne conway says he plans to focus on health care, the fight against islamic state, job creation and "certainly ethics. iraqi troops say they have captured the last alledge on the
eastern outskirts of muzzle. iraqi special forces are less than one mile from the city limits. an offensive to recapture muzzle is in its third week. chief saysmanitarian if warring parties in yemen do not reach a peace deal soon, the country could collapse with big consequences for the region. 80% of the country, about 21 million people, need some form of help. the country has at least 61 confirmed cases of cholera and 1700 more are suspected. global news twice four hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: let's turn to politics and what the outcome of the election could mean over the next four years. joining us now is the senior vice president and policy analyst at compass point.
question is what does the disclosure of these new e-mails mean for hillary clinton's odds of winning the election? she was in the lead prior to this and recent polling has shown she has lost a bid but it should not change the outcome overall is your thinking? right. nice to be with you. the new revelation -- revelation last week from a director, was a shock and was a shock to all of conventional washington, but the reality is we don't think it's going to have a tangible impact on the presidential race. votere think of the way perception is molded, voters have had 16 months just with hillary clinton as a candidate to form an opinion. with the totality of news and opinion that has inundated the average voter, folks have already made up their mind about the presidential race. a recent poll said 71% of
respondents had already made up their mind and the comey revelation would not impact them. going tois this is not impact the presidential race. we still have 90% odds that hillary clinton is the president of the united states. matt: what about down ballot? does it affect other members of her party running for senate or congressional seats? you are right. the actual impact here will be felt down ballot. by that, we mean senate races and how races. there was a brief narrative that ran its way through the market, that there would be a wave election. it would result in a democratic suite -- democratic sweep where whitead the senate, the house and of the house. the odds of that were always low, but now they are incontestable. theseikely, we will have
dispossessed, anti-trump voters who were going to stay home who now have a reason to go for the polls and vote for their house member or senate candidate on the ballot in their state. scarlet: but they would still be voting for trump when it comes to the presidential race. why would down ballot democrats suffer if the headlines are specific to hillary inton? it is all about a turnout. the models we have looked at show that there are a segment of republicans who will just stay home, but those republicans in states that may be a foregone conclusion, states like michigan, which will in our opinion very clearly goto may still have, an incentive to go to the polls and vote for their republican member of congress. beenomething we have talking about his strategic voting. perhaps a voter does not totally trust hillary clinton, however
he or she believes hillary clinton is a better candidate. there way of demonstrating that to vote for hillary clinton and vote for republicans to serve on on her. matt: this does not change her at winning. it does hurt her ability to overn after she takes the -- take the oval office. the longer this goes on, it's going to dog her on both sides of the aisle. first, it's difficult to see how trump wins. he -- even if he wins ohio and florida, he has to draw an inside straight and get north carolina and pennsylvania and a few other states that are highly unlikely for him to win.
from the actual governing the perspective, not much is going to change. generally speaking, a new tosident gets 100 days outline their new agenda. our sense is hillary clinton will get about 100 hours before the pushback starts. from a practical perspective, we are looking at a logjam for the next four years. donald trump seems to be able -- seems to be unable to have the spotlight trained on anyone but himself. i wonder to what extent you can expect the spotlight to stay on hillary clinton rather than turning it on to him? when we look back on the history of this race, i think it will show that donald trump has found new and innovative ways to take a positive and turned it into a negative. het is one of the reasons won't be moving into pennsylvania avenue. matt: what do you think he does
after the race? i'm sure you have spent some time thinking about what donald trump does to lick his wounds after he loses. the press reports are correct. he's going to take a foray into the media business. that's important to watch because in 2017, 1 of the big be the two civil wars -- the civil war for the heart of the republican party, which will be played out in the house where paul ryan will try to keep hold of his slimmer majority and in the senate where we have a strong progressive wing led by senator elizabeth warren, who i think is going to come to loggerheads with a more moderate clinton white house. stuff.: great giving us a sense of what to watch out for come 2017. coming up, my conversation
reasons for the spinoff. johnson controls had three separate businesses and we can't compete for capital with the other two businesses. now that we are our own public company, we are stewards of our own capital and we have to invest that wisely. we can reinvest in our business and get active on the growth trajectory we have enjoyed in the past. you are loong at three point $5 billion in annual capital spending now and you have talked about being capital constraint at johnson controls. are we going to see a change? guest: we have been talking about 3% or three .5% of our 150 million over how much we would have spent previously. so you are able to boost
it. there are competitors who complain that you lowball on bids. obviously, they are going to say something like that if they lose out too many times, but what is your response? guest: we are the largest automotive seating supplier in the world. we are 50% larger than our closest competitor and double the size of our next closest competitor in europe and four times the size of our next closest competitor in china. we are number one globally by a long shot, so, we've got a great cost base, we have a low cost manufacturing footprint. are taking advantage of our position. matt: what about the market in china? you have nearly half the seating market their.
normally, that is a position everyone would it be, but with the market slowing, is it difficult? you have to put that into perspective. the market is slowing and if you look at most forecasters, they are looking at the industry growing at 5% or 6%, taking the industry from 24 million units and to put that into perspective with the u.s. markets at 17 million, it is very robust growth. not as good as it was in the past, but relatively speaking to the mature markets, it is really strong. int: how about the growth the u.s.? have we hit peak auto? get is saying we should ready for a mature market to peak here. i'm not an economist or
expert on macroeconomics, but my personal sense is the u.s. .arket has plateaued i don't see it going down significantly. i see it hanging around the current level and growing with the population here. whatrom our perspective, we are seeing in the market is a toft from cars to trucks suvs and crossovers vehicles. that's a positive trend. the seats tend to be larger than a car and the market is shifting from what was a 50-50 mix between passenger car and light trucks is now about 65% light car, and we see that going to about 70%-30%. so we see growth in north america. if i'm not mistaken, you
do this seats for the tesla model s. i wonder if you are going to get another project for them. have a picked another supplier? i can't comment on new business opportunities, but we are watching the success tesla is having in the markets and we do some work and we are happy to support them. my conversation with bruce mcdonald. now for thee bloomberg business flash. a look at the big stories in the news right now. espn is contesting figures showing a 3.1% decline in subscribers from one year ago. a say the drop is overstated. nielsen says it will review the numbers. espn has been dealing with subscriber losses for more than toear, causing subscribers fret they are losing sway with viewers. a new carl test
sharing system that lets users unlock doors and start cars with their smartphones. it illuminates the need for a physical key. inota will test the system san francisco starting in january. toyota's investor fund put money into it. sportsgest fantasy companies are close to joining forces under the head of the draft king's cofounder according to people familiar with merger discussions. he's expected to serve as ceo which is as yet unnamed. investors have been encouraging it for months, hoping they can unify against other challenges. a study published by researchers at m.i.t., stanford and the university of washington has found evidence of racial bias at uber and lyft. people with black sounding names for canceled twice as often and faced notably longer wait times.
matt: this is bloomberg markets. i matt miller. fu.let: i'm scarlet time for options insight with julie hyman. julie: joining me is jim sugar to talk about the final days leading up to the election and what people should be doing in the market. this has been a topic of discussion and continues to be, not so much the broader market,
but specific sectors. if we are talking broader and the need to hedge against election outcomes, what's the best way to do that? : something we did is look at 40 of the most actively traded etf's and gauge the implied moves through earnings and look at november expirations. that tells us what the market implies in terms of a move. a move. couple of things come out of that. in terms of a hedge, it makes sense, opec summit november 30 and the fed on the 14th of december to go out to regular expirations. the lowest implied volatility is in the qs. clients buying 112 strike puts in december, paying about a dollar 60. you are protected for these three catalysts ahead. --julie: and they
are trading where now? jim: we are talking about the one 12 strikes. julie: 117 is where they are trading right now. a little decline from there. we have talked about banks being one of the areas of potential vulnerability, but health care is an area we have been watching and there are a couple of ways to slice and dice health care. jim: the health care sector in july, one hillary clinton started to rise sustainably, the worst performing sector, telecom , related to the fact that health care is lifted and make sense of the fact that clinton's policies, she does become president, we want to do a couple of things. number one's take a contrary in view. is implyingtech etf the fridaythrough
expirati ahe efter tction, the largest of any sector etf. we want to take the opposite view of the market and represent getting directionally long, is pretty flat. that means the market doesn't really see a lot of additional downside. the way we do that is go out to expiration and you pay about $1.40 for that. a straightforward trade. , the november expiration, go out and buy 69.5 strike calls. not only is it a contrary in view, but intraday friday when the fbi letter came out, both of these sectors jumped. it is a nice hedge. we actually have some
breaking news within health care. ceo and ahe valiant ceo are said to be the focus of a criminal probe according to people familiar with the matter. we are talking about michael pearson and howard schiller, the x cfo who became interim seat know when michael pearson was on medical leave. prosecutors ass. they build a fraud case that could yield charges within weeks. looking into potential fraud charges related to hidden ties with a specialty pharmacy company valiant secretly controlled. agents have been investigating the company for at least a year, and if you come inside the bloomberg terminal and look at shares in intraday trading, matt has it hold up on his computer and there is a leg lower, and dipping to $18 and $.88. still off by 6%.
on matt's-term chart computer highlights the struggle. just they are down 80% this year alone. valiant has really struggled to share. it is interesting as one of ill ackman's big that's. though work that valiant does at the same time he is short herbal life and it seems interesting he's looking to come out ethically as a winner on both of those traits but they don't seem to be working out well for him. mike pearson did not do bill ackman any favors. sometimes making decisions on conference calls without consulting him first, one of his biggest shareholders and i think the two had at times and accurately us relationship. scarlet: in a written statement, the company says we continue to
cooperate with u.s. authorities. we cannot comment on or speculate about any ongoing investigation. but the company takes these matters seriously and intends to hold high standards of ethical conduct. matt: the fbi spokesman also aclined to comment and spokesman for michael pearson's lawyer -- we have reached out to all of those people, but they have declined to comment. scoop --he bloomberg the x ceo of valeant, who was also at one point the cfo is the focus of prosecutors trying to build a criminal fraud case against him. let's go back over to julie hyman. the stock has plummeted on this news. julie: this is at a time when the pressures on valiant were starting to abate. the stock is down 81% year to date on concerns people have had
around the company and its operations, around the accounting discrepancies, so this perhaps dredges that up at a time when they were trying to move past it under its current ceo. 6.5%an see shares are down , down sharply over the past year. taking a gander at the bloomberg short interest, when i talk about the pressure abating, it seems like there is a high level of short interest, though the short interest ratio has picked up as prices have come down. here is the absolute level of short interest. the short interest ratio has ticked up and they prices have come down. just a proxy for people betting on the shares continuing to decline. that is one way to measure it.
we will continue to let's get you some other headlines. mark crumpton has those from the newsroom. mark: hillary clinton is challenging the fbi's new e-mail inquiry. she told a rally at kent state university in ohio she understands what concerns people have overuse of her personal e-mail server, for which she, once again, apologized. ms. clinton: now they apparently want to look at e-mails of one of my staffers, and by all means, they should look at them. reacham sure they will the same conclusion they did when they looked at my e-mails for the last year. there is no case here. said she would not be, in her words, knocked off course