tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg November 3, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
i am mark halperin. with all due respect to people making political prediction, you ain't got nothing on this guy. >> sunday, the chicago cubs are going to be in the world series. m&a b, sooner than we think. sooner than we think. mark: the days are flying by and taking forever. we are just five news cycles away from electing the next president of these united
states. it was a busy day on the campaign trail. hillary clinton and donald trump and plenty of superdelegates across the battleground states from sea to shining sea, making a pitch to the voters. >> welcome to pennsylvania. pres. obama: we have five more days. mr. trump: in five days, we are going to win the great state of florida. >> love for this country is , when i met share donald. he loves this country and he knows how to get things done, not just talk. he certainly knows him to shake things up, doesn't he? pres. obama: this is a guy who spent 70 years, his whole life, born with a silver spoon, showing no respect for working people. mr. trump: why isn't he back in the office, the oval office, why isn't he back in the white house , bringing our job back?
and helping our veterans? you have a: republican senator saying you cannot afford to give the nuclear codes to somebody so erratic, and as hillary points ut, anybody that you can bait with a tweet is not someone you can trust with nuclear weapons. ms. clinton: someone who always puts himself first and is not to get hurt along the way. a president with a very thin skin and lashes out at anyone who challenges him, praises adversaries like vladimir putin and pick fights with our allies and even attacked the pope. veryrump: thank you much, everybody. god bless you. it out and vote. mark: there is only one thing anybody cares about right now. does hillary clinton have an impregnable lead or does donald trump have a real path to the white house? to the answers to
those questions. a handful of surveys look positive for the republican nominee. 47 percent tojust 44%. there was also bunch of state polls that likely have trump world smiling. bostonvey from the university show clinton and trump tied. the granite state is the place that people thought clinton had pulled ahead. tied in aalso colorado poll from the university of denver, place clinton was presumed to have the electoral votes locked down. a new nbc news/wall street journal marist poll has clinton with the lead. so much for clinton making inroads there. in finally, trump is up six in utah, where evan mcmullin, the independent candidate have fallen back to third. jon, we are going to talk about
the polls are today that are good for you at would do you see in these surveys that seem positive for trump? john: look, the main thing is that you are starting to get an incontrovertible sense the race fewtightened in this last days before election day. if the colorado poll or two it would be the best news because hillary clinton is as being in the bag basically, was now not only competitive but that come to the head. if you look and give apple a little more closely, it is only showing 9% of hispanics. that would not be the number. i think it was 14% in 2012, so may be under representing eight key demographic in that state. if that is even close to true, it says something important going on in this race. mark: trump clearly has shown
movement over the last two weeks. is he still moving or has he talked out? -- topped out? he has got some natural feeling that is lower than 50%, to be sure. i believe this data suggests he may be moving and moving in a number of places, and a positive direction in those red states where clinton was thinking about challenging and for him in these blue states. he is not there yet. these polls suggest, the third in a row, the data suggests andp's movement up, clinton, most of these places well below 50. the trump campaign has got to hope that the undecided voters break his way. she is a quasi-incumbent. john: what is the relationship with you and what is going on this week and what has already happened in the early vote? we have mixed evidence on the
early vote in some places. people on the democratic side are very confident. democrats are confident they have a huge lead in the early vote. the election is going to happen on tuesday, elections happening over the course of the last month. how the interplay between the two is is going to matter a lot in terms of what the outcome is. hillary clinton, by contrast, had a few positive poll that came out yesterday. she did better in the polling and donald trump, but today, there were just two polls we can fight where clinton would be ahead. georgia has clinton trailing trump by just one point, 47% to 46%, which would be a huge deal if hillary clinton were to win the peach state as the bread as it is. the democratic nominee is up by four percentage points in the sunshine state, if true, a big deal.
donald trump cannot win the presidency without florida. although we are only exciting two polls as good for hillary clinton, are they significant enough that they might offset the good news on the trump side in terms of the clinton psyche? mark: they do not fully offset it, but she is still ahead and she still has, if you did a stupid thing and to the latest single public polls in every battleground state, she would still win. the bottom has not fallen out. trump so has not broken through in enough places to say he is at parity with her in terms of chances to win, and look, i know people think we get paid to be definitive and decisive, but i still believe all of these onees could break in place or another. i think she could win a state like georgia or arizona, but she could also start to lose. .omentum matters at the end she is holding on, not
collapsing, but it is hard to say she has got any moment in my now compared to trump. you see that in the polling data, on the stump, in the advertising. john: i agree with that. the question is, if she does not have momentum, which i think you are right. if you are in the lead, in the final week, and you just hold, you end up winning. i think the florida poll, right now, the two campaigns give privately different assessment of where things are. that florida poll that we just put up, four-point lead for hillary clinton, i think is what most democrats think is the case. captures a reality and hillary clinton is going to win florida, that is as consequential as any other single thing in this entire race. here as talk a lot people do on other programs, about trump's narrow passage for some of the electoral votes, the states he would need to get there. why hillary clinton very much has the upper hand in this race,
because her journey is relatively simple. you start with the solid blues, places like california, new york, hawaii, rhode island. those have 195 electoral votes. you can bank there was for hillary clinton. 59 states have, states that have 59 electoral votes. those are ones leaning her way, where she has big leads in the public polling, averaging five or more. if she winds those, she is 6 -- if she wins those, she is 16 electoral votes away. florida or ohio would do it. you go back to the leaning list, and trump is challenging in every one of those with the possible exception of virginia. can trump take away any of those? maybe. polling, clinton is taking the electoral votes with ease.
yet, the thing about this if i am looking at the list and trying to get my head around it, the thing about the wieners, pennsylvania, virginia, michigan, wisconsin, new mexico, all leaning democratic. of those dates, four, excluding virginia, have been states that democrats have won consistently. you have the go back to the 90's to find any one of those states going republican. virginia was a closer run battleground but she has been comfortably ahead there for a long time. i would be shocked if any of those state and up and donald trump column. it is not possible, but i would be shocked. that illustrate why she is in the driver seat still. donald trump is contesting them. use the word shop. if you woke up tomorrow and
showed trump ahead in any of those estates or moving nationally, i do not think at this point, people should say they are shocked. is still but a by wikileaks. i will say it again, hearing from a lot of republican operatives that they are working ballotr candidates, down races, particularly senate races. the affordable care act thing is in the minds of a lot of voters. it is certainly bringing public in time. you can put the list of state backup. people got to remember that a lot of these states, there are contested senate races in the swing states and in those contested senate races, with one or two exceptions, the republican candidates continue to do quite well. tickets putting is minimized. it can make a big difference. best to get splitting -- to get cket splitting is minimized. it can make a big difference.
all of those states, new hampshire, all of those states have competitive senate races. republicans are in a much better shape and is races than most people thought they would be. john: to go back to my shock comments, if donald trump went to a six democratic leaning states we have, i think that means she will win virtually everyone of the tossup states. wavewill mean a national has happened at the last minute in this election. i do not expect that to happen. nothing is impossible, but it would mean trump has caught a big wave and a bigger wave than we have seen in this race so far and a bigger wave than trump has ever come close to writing in -- riding in date. mark: more when we come back. ♪
infamousore her speech, this summer in cleveland, melania trump was a phantom on the campaign trail. her big cleveland moment and did pretty that lee westwood discovered part of her speech was lifted almost verbatim from michelle obama's own convention speech years earlier. have seene then, we her only in a handful of tv interviews. she reemerged in pennsylvania. donald promises to campaign on behalf of those who feel the system is broken and does not work for them. those who just want a fair shake, an opportunity for a better education, better paying job, a better future. this represents a late and unusual appearance in the campaign by melania trump.
what you think is the reason they did not use or more and sooner? mark: i think she wanted to spend time with her son and she was shaken by the convention experience where she was inadvertently lifted things from the first lady. her speech today, i think they need to win over more women in that part of philadelphia. i think being against cyber bullying when her husband is probably the nation's premier cyber bully was probably not the best choice, but she has been absent and they missed out on a prospect of a pretty major surrogate. john: i am sure about that. i think the convention thing obviously mattered, but it is no diss to melania trump to say she is probably not the most relatable residential mommy spouse we have ever had. her glamour, all the things that presidentialble
spouse we have ever had. glamour, she was fined today. i am not sure she cost them a lot by not having her out there more frequently. this takes practice. michelle obama is probably one of the best speakers in the country. . saw her early on they put a lot of pressure on her by having her speak so rarely. secondly in a row, a guy who is pretty accomplished on the trail, president obama was out campaigning for hillary clinton for the second day in a row. the president once again picks a fight with melania trump husband. pres. obama: when i ran into thousand eight, iran and against john mccain and disagreed with him on a lot of stuff. i did not fear for the republic, i just thought i would be a better president. when i campaigned against mitt romney, i disagreed with him on all kinds of things, but although i thought i was going
to be a better president, i did would be our democracy injured by him taking office. this is different. mark: today, the clinton campaign announced a double date on the campaign trail. bill and hillary clinton appeared with iraq and michelle obama in philadelphia. and michelle obama in philadelphia. i cannot say that i see very many cons at this point. as we have said for weeks, he is a very popular president. his approval rating is high. he has accomplished that she is at a -- he is an accomplished little athlete. i would want him on my side that he is willing to do so much for hillary clinton in these closing days. mark: he read out the address of where people could early vote in
florida 10 minutes from the event site and gave the url of a site people from all over the country can use. i think if hillary clinton and upholding on and winning, i think people will look at the data and look at the flow of the news coverage and see that president obama played the unprecedented role for an incumbent president trying to help get his chosen successor into office. john: i think that is right. we all said we thought he would be pretty active in this campaign, especially when it became clear that donald trump with the republican nominee, but he has been way more active than people expected, way more passionate and engaged. thinks the stakes are high and want to do whatever he can to help hillary clinton hold on. force., a tour de katy tur, after word from our sponsors. ♪
anchor: with us now from some of, north carolina, nbc news correspondent katy tur covers the campaign. fascinating watching trump in his speeches toggle between more uplifting and optimistic rhetoric and is still being quite negative going after hillary clinton. is there some balance they are trying to strike or is it more haphazard? katy: well, all campaigns want to end their campaign on a positive note. certainly hillary clinton did as well. she is not able to at the moment. donald trump's campaign is no different. designed by attacks,personal
rallies, in interviews, against the establishment, and if hillary clinton, and the idea that the whole system is out and not against donald trump necessarily, but the american people. it makes sense for him to continue on in these next five days. he needs to distract from his onslaught of negative headlines that we have been talking about now for 16, 17 month. his chance to focus on hillary , and let herely wallow in a slew of bad headlines of her own. this is a calculated move by the campaign, when they believe will help them regain some ground. what republican operatives think will help in regain -- him regain some ground. john: we were just discussing on the program about melania trump. she is out there today and has not done very much publicly. why now? do they have any regrets about not using her more?
katy: that is look at where she was specifically today. she was in the suburbs of philadelphia. this is where donald trump needs to pick up republican women in this area and get him to vote for him. melania was deployed there strategically. she is trying to portray the softer side not only of donald trump but of their family. need to useage they going down for the next five days because he does not have the support of women that other pass republicans have had, certainly not what mitt romney had. if sh he is going to have a fighting chance against hillary clinton, they need to find a way to stem the bleeding. they are not saying that to me in conversations, but i would be surprised if they did not think they could have used her more. of course, she has been not so apparent on the campaign trail. thehad that speech at
republican national convention, but we have not seen her much on the trail even by donald trump's side during this campaign. it is much focused on trump's personality rather than his family life. we have seen more of his kids on the trail man melania. what i found so interesting about her speech today is a that she was talking about what she would be like as first lady. the issues she would focus on thomas specifically bullying on she wouldia -- that focus on in this country, specifically bullying on social media. that is raising a lot of eyebrows today because donald has built a campaign on name-calling and insulting and undercutting his opponent in absolutely any way he can and in a social media following that goes after critics of him with ferocity. that was certainly eyebrow raising. i would assume they wished
melania was on the trail more even though they are not saying it. john: as a trump was the biggest most prominent cyber bully. her remarks seem ironic, if nothing else. we have about one minute left. kellyanne conway was technology in that trump was the underdog. , they areersations suggesting that trump was tied or maybe the favorite at this point. what is his staff posture about -- staff's posture about where they stand? katy: they were handed a gift with the revival of the fbi investigation, with obamacare dumb brazil giving hillary clinton questions before the debate. they have a lot to be -- -- and donates
brazil giving hillary clinton questions before the debate. it is going to be tough for donald trump to win. they are hopeful that he is moving in a more positive direction in the polls. are in aballot races much better position than they were last week. anchor: thank you very much. we are going to talk wikileaks and the fbi when we come back, right after this break. ♪
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>> think about that. america's most sensitive secrets unlawfully sent, received, and exposed i hillary clinton,
her staff, and anthony weiner. hillary clinton cannot lead an investigation while crippled by an investigation. mr. trump: i would look are right in that fat, ugly face of hers. he is a war hero because he was captured. i do not like people -- i like people who were not captured, ok? a person who is flat-chested it's very hard to be a 10.
our military is a disaster. when mexico sends its people, they are bringing drugs, they are rapists. i would like to punch him in the face. get him out of here. anchor: those were some excerpts from the tv ads. sefl ands now is tracy sarah isgur flores. we just saw those ladies the opposite order that i introduced them. great to see you. ,et me start out with you tracy. where do you see the race? tracy: first of all, i am in chicago and i see the race and everything right
now through the ,ens of last night's huge win so forgive me for the euphoria that is still extending here, but as far as the race goes, i think we are in a good place.
what hillary has got going for her continues to be one of her strongest advantages, and that is her ground game and what is happening in the state and organization, early voting, all of these factors are very much in her favor and i am feeling confident about tuesday night. tracy, congratulations on your clubs, by the way. that's your cubs, by the way. go cubs! sara, you are in boston and we have got you in the right place. what do you think about where the race stands right now? sarah: it has not been turning out. you look at early vote numbers showing up in florida and north carolina, and i would be getting extraordinarily nervous. when you have new hampshire tied and nevada closing in, i'm going to keep watching those nevada numbers move because i think that is where this might come
down to a florida and north carolina get away from her. anchor: sarah, give me an anecdote. tell me someone who was not for trump before but now is. sarah: you know what, i'm not sure it is people changing their minds, but what we saw about a week and a half ago was the enthusiasm numbers flipped. the last three months, trump's enthusiasm numbers have been higher but then hillary took over and her enthusiasm numbers were higher. what happened with the comey e-mails, those numbers changed again. when you have two such unlikable candidates, i think that is a real problem. down all, republicans were in early vote counts, and they are up by a real margin. -- northravenna, carolina, the turnout operation is not working. in fact, things are not going the way they thought they would. anchor: tracy, as you look at
the new clinton ad and the continued attempts to define donald trump as unacceptable, is that working? would you think that is not working? tracy: what i think is masterful about the approach is that all of these ads are just donald himself. footage of him talking, the things he said, things he has done. ,t really is sort of hands-off you could say, for the hillary campaign. he just makes the case for himself through his ridiculousness and the lying and the dangers and divisive things he says. i think the fact that all you have to do is play the tape of him tells the story and tells it extraordinary well. particularly, when you think about the negative ads he is running against hillary are largely based on a new window as uendo as opposed
to him talking. the clinton campaign is smart to be utilizing at the way they have. anchor: we push back a little bit on that. as i looked at those ads, what struck me about them, in addition to the clinton ad being beautifully produced and the trump campaign manager looks more like a girish tabloid style,-- garrish tabloid the ads are in a style of ads we have been seeing for month a month. the trump campaign manager is injecting fresh information and controversy into the race. it seems to me that i had is a little bit more -- that ad is eye-catching. it has the feel of something new. does that not concern you? tracy: what i do know is how many people are going to make their decisions assuming they have not voted yet, they are going to make those decisions
based on their conversations with their friends and colleagues and neighbors. i do not see any of its where a tv ad is someone's ultimate deciding factor. five days out, i am not concerned. i think you are right that there tabloidish quality. when one of those ads came on, whereas watching, the place erupted into boo's. it is not a welcome sight right now. spending time in places like new mexico, michigan, wisconsin. just from a strategic standpoint, do you think it makes sense for him to spend precious days in states like that that have been so blue for so long. no.h: i would be looking down florida, north carolina, and then bottling in nevada, new hampshire, pennsylvania.
what i do think is stunning is that the hillary campaign is ending hillary to michigan tomorrow. nothing shows me the internal panic of a campaign as much as the candidate' schedulings and going to a state that has no senate race. they think michigan is on a map. if michigan is on the map for them, this whole thing is slipping away quickly. it is stunning that a democrat with a that tv ads do not matter when clinton has to wildly outspend trump on tv. there is panic going on inside hillary camp right now. it is warranted. forward,hat moving they will have to do some soul-searching about what their message is going to be heading into sunday and monday in order to turn their voters out election day. election day has traditionally been a republican day. anchor: tracy, are you panicked? tracy: opposite of. i appreciate there is point, although i think she was misconstruing what i said. it is not that bad do not matter not matter, but the
cumulative process of this campaign. the millions of dollars spent on campaign ads have made the case. one ad in the final five days is not going to be the make or break. it is the sum total we are talking about here. anchor: ok, tracy sefl, because the cubs won, tracy sefl gets the last word. these two of fantastic strategists. don't forget you can listen on the radio on bloomberg 99.1 fm. we will be back with them. ♪
strategist tracy sefl and sarah isgur flores in boston. there has been lots of documents out, nothing that has been a huge silver bullet. if you would choose one of the disclosures, either a specific e-mail from the podesta inbox or outbox, or a theme, what has been the most damaging to hillary clinton? tracy: i would pick from the past the election. i think the brazil in e-mails validate what bernie sanders been saying about their primary process being rigged. moving forward, i think you see more dissension in the democrat ranks, particularly from the base. sarah: if you're looking at a democrat running in the primary, those leaks were incredibly damaging to the inside structure of the party. i think we have seen nothing in
particular that would have changed voters minds. enthusiasm, maybe. overall, i think the fbi e-mail issues are far more impactful. if you do not want the fbi involved in your election, do not nominate someone being investigated by the fbi. this is someone they cannot really trust on national security issues. mark: tracy, what do you think the impact of the wikileaks disclosures they after they -- day have been? what could have a profound impact on this election is the very fact of the crime and the manner in which they were collected and released. that is where i see the problem, what i am talking about with cyber security issues and a hostile foreign state's
potential involvement in these leaks. that is the larger concern, one that lasts well beyond election day. sarah: that means hillary's server was probably hacked, too. tracy: i appreciate the question, but i do not and so. it is clear that this story has been playing out for so long, so agonizingly long, that anyone who has formed an opinion about it formed that opinion some time ago. there is were the fbi is not likely to finish its review of the e-mails that are the subject that are the subject of the phase of being buried before election day -- of the day.ry before election it do you think it is important that it would be important for the fbi to try to come forward with some kind of a statement before the election day or if
they had not finished their inquiry, that they just keep their mouths shut and not get back into the election again before tuesday? tracy: i would be happy to not have them rear their heads again. it is clear that places a miss, whether it is management issues or the leaks we are seeing with the constant the world during information we are seeing, and on top of all of that, it is very vague. we do not even know what it is we are talking about that they are reviewing or not reviewing, finishing or not finishing. at this point, given the mess they have made and the muddled circumstances that all of us have been forced to mock around -- muck around in, let us be done with it. congratulations on that baseball victory. congratulations for being part of america. we will be right back and check in with reporters in washington
john: we are five days away from the election and joined now by two people who hopefully have long vacations planned in their future. in our nation's capital, elliot andhnson -- eliana johnson the great matea gold. it is said and seems to be true that part of what is happening with donald trump and his closing the gap between him and hillary clinton has to do with republican consolidation, republicans coming home to donald trump. can you explain to me why republicans are coming home? what is driving that at this late stage?
>> i think that is right. you can see that clearly in utah. evan mcmullin has been surging in the polls as recently as last week. donald trump is actually leading the latest polls. mcmillan has fallen to third place in some of them. as you get closer and closer to election day, there tends to be fewer and fewer undecided voters and so, i think it is natural to see people who had been sitting on their hands and telling pollsters they are unwilling to vote for donald trump, coming home as election day nears. obviously,n, undecided voters eventually go one way or the other, but republicans who had profound misgivings about donald trump for months, what has happened do you think in the state and the race that has caused people who had big misgivings about trump to abandon those misgivings and come back to their natural home? eliana: one factors that trump
has been much been quiet for the last few weeks and one constant in this race has been that whoever, whichever candidate is in the headlines, the candidate benefits. when donald trump is making news, hillary clinton benefits and vice versa. it is hillary clinton has been in the headlines the past few weeks and donald trump has benefited. most of his campaign, he has played right into hillary clinton's hands, eaten up most of the newspaper headlines and airtime on television shows, but that has not been the case for the last couple of weeks and that is for trump's benefit. john: we have on the democratic side, a mirror image situation going on as republicans are coming home, democrats seem very worried now turn out among poor elements of the democratic base, the obama coalition and there is some evidence to suggest they are right to be worried.
what can they do to fix that problem in the short amount of time remaining before election day? matea: you see their action plan the point right now. their spear is really president obama. yesterday, north carolina, today in florida, making incredibly personal appeals to african-american voters. he said yesterday, he is worried that african-american vote is not as solid as it should be and telling those voters, look, this is a vote for my legacy, if you want my legacy to continue, you need to cast your ballot and come out to vote. put it all outm on the line. the clinton campaign is also warchest toenormous run last ads. you cantion is whether mobilize voters and get them to feel the stakes of this election. tea, staying with
you. i am curious about whether there is a similar problem or not among hispanic voters. obviously, a larger segment of the population and super important. what do you know about the degrees to which enthusiasm, enthusiasm level to that key demographic for clinton? matea: we are seeing early indications of the latino vote being up in key states in nevada and florida. i think democrats feel more confident about that demographic , and we have seen an incredible amount of energy going into register latino voters and get them out to the polls and trump's polarizing comments from the beginning of this campaign have really mobilized that community. you are hearing from activists on the ground that people are engaged. it is a matter of making sure people who are low propensity voters actually know where to go, actually know how to cast their ballot. to talk a little
bit more about the electoral college and correct something we got wrong earlier. an error on our graphic. i appreciate those on twitter who aggressively pointed it out. here is the updated, corrected graphic that shows hillary clinton's solid blue states. it gives her an hundred 95 electoral votes. the state where clinton is leading in public polling by five points or more, pennsylvania, virginia, michigan, wisconsin, new mexico. that is 64 electoral votes and gives her just 11 she would need to get from the last column. there is plenty of options. it seemsk you, matea, to me what this illustrates is that beyond that hillary clinton has a far easier road, that trump will have to have a national search. he'll not be able to cherry pick his way to 270 electoral votes. does that make sense to you? matea: he has to have so many things go in his favor at this
point. at the trump campaign sees a lot of potential in these blue states but the reality is he needs florida and blue states. he needs to create a coalition of a lot of these places to park that path. she have to hold him off in a couple of key places and that is still the case even though the polls have tightened. i think she has obviously more ways to get there than he does at this point. eliana, they believe this is close. what do you hear from republicans working on down ballot races, for trump's but not wild about him. eliana: i think the most significant ramification of the tightening of the race will not be for trump himself, who i think is still likely to lose on tuesday, but for some of these down ballot republicans who can only run so far ahead of trump. they cannot outrun him by 10 points, but maybe by five or six
points. people are much more optimistic for example about republicans holding the senate. ine of you like kelly ayotte new hampshire or pat toomey in pennsylvania, who is running neck and that with his -- neck and neck with katie mcginty. some are much more optimistic about their talents to win these races and then were 10 days ago. matea, do they see more optimistic about trump chances than they did a week ago? matea: i think people are worried about the ground effort. they are worried about the fact that the democrats and clinton have an incredible imbalance when it comes to mobilizing voters and that is a direct superior her fundraising operation that she started a full year before he did, so that is something that i think the day after the election, we are going to be
campaign for hillary clinton today. pres. obama: all the progress we have made goes out the window if we don't win this election. we have to work our hardest this week. we have to work like our future depends on it because it actually depends on it. also, donald trump hit back on the campaign trail in florida. mr. trump: this guy ought to be back in the office working. he won't be there long, thank goodness. mark: in south carolina, friends and family of walter scott, and unarmed black man shot by police officers last year, testified today in opening statements. cell phone video footage showed michael slater shooting scott in the back after he ran from his car after being pulled over. he faces 30 years to life if convicted.