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tv   With All Due Respect  Bloomberg  November 3, 2016 8:00pm-9:01pm EDT

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watching. sayonara. ♪ mark: i am mark halperin. "with all due respect" to people making political predictions, you ain't got nothing on this guy. >> sure as god made green apples, someday the chicago cubs are going to be in the world series. that may be sooner than we think. ♪ oh, the days are flying by and taking forever. unless this race goes into extra innings we are just five news , cycles away from electing the next president of these united states. it was a busy day on the campaign trail.
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hillary clinton and donald trump and plenty of superdelegates storming across the battleground states from sea to shining sea, making a pitch to the voters. >> welcome to pennsylvania. pres. obama: florida, we have five more days. mr. trump: in five days, we are going to win the great state of florida. melania: love for this country is something we share, when i met donald. he loves this country and he knows how to get things done, not just talk. he certainly knows how to shake things up, doesn't he? pres. obama: this is a guy who spent 70 years, his whole life, born with a silver spoon, showing no respect for working people. mr. trump: why isn't he back in the office, the oval office, why isn't he back in the white house, bringing our job back?
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and helping our veterans? pres. obama: you have a republican senator saying you cannot afford to give the nuclear codes to somebody so erratic, and as hillary points out, anybody that you can bait with a tweet is not someone you can trust with nuclear weapons. ms. clinton: someone who always puts himself first and does not care gets hurt along the way. a president with a very thin skin and lashes out at anyone who challenges him, praises adversaries like vladimir putin ♪ 9:00 a.m. in singapore, and pick fights with our allies and even attacked the pope. , mr. trump: thank you very much, everybody. god bless you. midday in sydney. i am rishaad sal salamat in hong get out and vote. kong. mark: amidst all this world, there is only one thing anybody cares about right now. does hillary clinton have an impregnable lead or does donald trump have a real path to the this is "bloomberg markets: asia white house? there were fewer credible polls ." ♪ pre-election stocks giving us a snapshot to the
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answers to those questions. a handful of surveys look positive for the republican nominee. first a national survey, cbs-new like continues as markets countdown to the u.s. poll. york times has clinton up to 47% the upbeat china forecast from the rba. to 44%. there was also bunch of state ahead,nce polls that likely have trump world smiling. a new hampshire survey from the boston university show clinton and trump tied. the granite state is the place that until recently people , thought clinton had pulled ahead. the two candidates also tied in a colorado poll from the university of denver, place s where clinton was present to have the electoral vote -- presumed to have the electoral vote locked down. a new nbc news/wall street journal marist poll has clinton -- has trump with a lead in arizona and texas. so much for clinton making inroads there. in finally, trump is up six in a monmouth university poll in utah where evan mcmullin, the , independent candidate have fallen back to third.
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john, and a second we are going to have a lot of holes that are good for hillary clinton. what about these surveys seems positive for trump? john: look, the main thing is that you are starting to get an incontrovertible sense the race has tightened in this last few days before election day. if that colorado poll were true, it would be the best news in is whatup, because it hillary clinton relied on, not only competitive, but that trump is ahead. if you look at the poll a little closely, it is only showing 9% of hispanics. that is not at all what the number was like. i think it was 14% in 2012, so that poll may be under representing in a key demographic in that state. if that is even close to true, it says something important going on in this race. mark: trump clearly has shown movement over the last two
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weeks. the question is is he still , moving or has he talked out? -- topped out? is he getting a natural ceiling? we know that he has a natural ceiling that is lower than 50% to be sure. i believe this data suggests he may be moving and moving in a number of places, and a positive direction in those red states where clinton was thinking about challenging, and in a positive these blue states. he is not there yet. these polls suggest, the third in a row, the data suggests trump's movement up, and clinton, most of these places well below 50. the trump campaign has got to hope that the undecided voters break his way. she is a quasi-incumbent. john: one of the biggest outstanding questions is what the relationship is between what is going on this week and what has already happened in the early vote.
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we have mixed evidence on the early vote in some places. people on the democratic side are very confident. places like nevada, where democrats are coming that they had a huge lead. elections happening over the course of the last month. how the interplay between the two is is going to matter a lot in terms of what the outcome is. hillary clinton, by contrast, had a few positive polls that came out yesterday. she did better in the polling than donald trump, but today, there were just two polls we can cite where clinton would be smiling. a nbc marist poll of georgia has clinton trailing trump by one point, 47 percent to 46%. which would be a huge deal if hillary clinton were to win the peach state as the bread as it is. the democratic nominee is up by four percentage points in the sunshine state, if true, a big deal.
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florida, donald trump cannot win the presidency without florida. although we are only exciting polls as good for hillary clinton, are they significant enough that they might offset the good news on the trump side in terms of the clinton psyche? mark: they do not fully offset it, but she is still ahead and she still has, if you did a stupid thing and took the latest public poll in every got up on stage, she would still win. the bottom has not fallen out. trump has not broken through in enough places to say he is at parity with her in terms of chances to win, and look, i know people think we get paid to be definitive and decisive, but i still believe all of these states could break in one place or another. i think she could win a state like georgia or arizona, but she could also start to lose. momentum matters at the end. she is holding on, not collapsing, but it is hard to
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say that she has any momentum compared to trump. you see that in the polling data, on the stump, in the advertising. john: i agree with that. the question is, if she does not have momentum, which i think you are right, not a lot of forward momentum -- if you are in the lead, in the final week, and you just hold, you end up winning. i think the florida poll, right now, the two campaigns give privately different assessment of where things are. that florida poll that we just put up, four-point lead for hillary clinton, i think is what most democrats think is the case. if that poll captures a reality and hillary clinton is going to win florida, that is as consequential as any other single thing in this entire race. mark: game set sunshine match if she can. we talk a lot here as people do on other programs, about trump's narrow passage for some of the 270age to -- passage to electoral votes.
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we will show you why hillary clinton very much has the upper hand in this race, because her journey is relatively simple. you start with the solid blues, places like california, new york, hawaii, rhode island. those have 195 electoral votes. you can bank those for hillary clinton. 59 states have, states that have 59 electoral votes. those are ones leaning her way, where she has big leads in the public polling, averaging five or more. if she wins those, she is 16 electoral votes away. you can see the final list which you would need to get florida or 16, ohio would do it. you go back to the leaning list, and trump is challenging in every one of those with the possible exception of virginia. can trump take away any of those? maybe. you can see again, under public polling, clinton is taking the electoral votes with ease. digs digs into that
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list, we are dealing with a different situation. yeah, i mean the thing about this is that i'm trying to get my head around the list. leaners, about the pennsylvania, virginia, michigan, wisconsin, new mexico, all leaning democratic. of those dates, four, excluding virginia, have been states that democrats have won consistently. you have the go back to the 90's to find any one of those states going republican. virginia was a closer run battleground but she has been comfortably ahead there for a long time. i would be shocked if any of those states end up in donald trump's column that illustrates why she is in the driver seat still. donald trump is contesting them. but those states are the regis -- are big reaches for him to
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win. mark: you use the word shock. if you woke up tomorrow and showed trump ahead in any of those dates or moving nationally, i do not think at this point, people should say they are shocked. she is still plagued by wikileaks. i will say it again, hearing from a lot of republican operatives that they are working on other candidates, down ballot races, particularly senate races the affordable care act , thing is in the minds of a lot of voters. it is certainly bringing republicans home. they believe in these contested races, it is going to help. again, you can put the list of states back of. people got to remember that a lot of these states, there are contested senate races in the swing states and in those contested senate races, with one or two exceptions, the republican candidates continue to do quite well. if ticket splitting is minimized, that can make a big difference. leaning.he list of the you have a raise in pennsylvania, wisconsin, then senate races in florida, north
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carolina, nevada, new hampshire -- all of those states have potential senate races. again, republicans are in much better shape in those races than most people thought they would be. john: to go back to my shock comments, if donald trump wins 2 of those 6 leaning states i , think that means she will win virtually everyone of the tossup states. i do not expect that to happen. which is why i would say i would be shocked. not impossible, but it would mean that trump has caught a big wave and a bigger wave than we have seen in this race so far and a bigger wave than trump has ever come close to riding to date. mp making aelania tru rare campaign trail appearance today. we talk about that anymore when we come back.
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john: before her infamous speech at the republican national convention in cleveland melania trump was a phantom on , the campaign trail. her big cleveland moment and did pretty badly after it was revealed it was lifted almost verbatim from michelle obama's own convention speech years earlier. all of that changed when mrs. trump spoke at a campaign event in berwyn, pennsylvania. mrs. trump: donald promises to campaign on behalf of those who feel the system is broken and does not work for them. those who just want a fair shake, an opportunity for a better education, better paying job, a better future. john: this represents a late and unusual appearance in the
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campaign by melania trump. what you think is the reason they did not use her more and sooner? mark: i think she wanted to spend time with her son and she was shaken by the convention experience where she was , inadvertently lifted things from the first lady. [indiscernible] her speech today, i think they need to win over more women in that part of philadelphia. i think being against cyber bullying when her husband is probably the nation's premier cyber bully was probably not the best choice, but she has been absent and they missed out on a prospect of a pretty major surrogate. john: i am sure about that. i think the convention thing obviously mattered, but it is no diss to melania trump to say she is probably not the most relatable presidential spouse we have ever had. her glamour, all the things that
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-- her attributes that stand out most about her are things that make her an imperfect messenger to a lot of ordinary voters. i don't know how much they actually have missed by not having her out there more. i am not sure she cost them a lot by not having her out there more frequently. mark: this takes practice. michelle obama is probably one of the best speakers in the country. i saw her early on. she wasn't the person she is now. they put a lot of pressure on her by having her speak so rarely. secondly in a row, a guy who is pretty accomplished on the trail, president obama was out campaigning for hillary clinton for the second day in a row. this time he was in florida. the president once again picks a fight with melania trump 's husband. pres. obama: when i ran into 2008, iran against john mccain and disagreed with him on a lot , of stuff. i did not fear for the republic, i just thought i would be a better president. [applause] when i campaigned against mitt romney in i disagreed with him 2012, on all kinds of things,
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but although i thought i was going to be a better president, i did not think our democracy would be injured by him taking office. this is different. mark: today, the clinton campaign announced a double date on the campaign trail. on bill and hillary clinton monday, of your with barack and michelle obama in philadelphia. with barack and michelle obama in philadelphia. what does it say to have the president and first lady play such a leading role in the campaign? john: i cannot say that i see very many cons at this point. as we have said for weeks, he is a very popular president. his approval rating is high. he is as accomplished a political athlete has anyone in the country right now. if i were clinton, i would be thinking my lucky stars that he is willing to do so much for her in the closing days. mark: he was so much into it in the rally, he read out the
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address where you can go out to vote in florida. he gave out a url evil could use to turn out. -- people could use to turn out. peopleary clinton wins, will look at the flow of the news coverage and see that president obama played the unprecedented role for an incumbent president trying to help get his chosen successor into office. john: i think that is right. we all said we thought he would he be pretty active in this campaign, especially when it became clear that donald trump was the republican nominee, but he has been way more active than people expected, way more passionate and engaged. he really thinks the stakes are high and want to do whatever he can to help hillary clinton hold on. up next, a tour de force. katyolitical correspondent tur, joining us after a word from our sponsors. ♪
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--k: with us from soma, selma, north carolina, nbc news correspondent katy tur covers the campaign. fascinating watching trump in his speeches toggle between more uplifting and optimistic rhetoric that he has used through the campaign, and still being quite negative going after hillary clinton. is there some balance they are trying to strike or is it more haphazard? katy: well, all campaigns want to end their campaign on a positive note. certainly hillary clinton did as well. she is not able to at the moment. donald trump's campaign is no different. at the same time, his campaign has been defined by attacks, personal attacks, rallies, in
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interviews, but also attacks against the establishment, and hillary clinton, and the idea that the whole system is out and rigged, not against donald trump necessarily, but the american people. it makes sense for him to continue on in these next five days. also, he needs to distract from his onslaught of negative headlines that we have been talking about now for 16, 17 months. his chance to focus on hillary clinton entirely, and let her wallow in a slew of bad headlines of her own. this is a calculated move by the campaign, one they believe will help them regain some ground. republican operatives think will help regain some ground. john: we were just discussing on the program about melania trump. she is out there today and has not done very much publicly. why now? and do they have any regrets
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about not using her more? katy: let us look at where she was specifically today. she was in the suburbs of philadelphia. the main line of philadelphia. this is where donald trump needs to pick up republican women in this area and get him to vote for him. melania was deployed there strategically. she is trying to portray the softer side not only of donald trump but of their family. it is a message they need to use going down for the next five days because he does not have the support of women that other past republicans have had, certainly not what mitt romney had during 2012. if he is going to have a fighting chance against hillary clinton, they need to find a way to stem the bleeding. do they wish that she came back on the campaign trail more? they are not saying that to me in conversations but i would be , surprised if they did not think they could have used her more. of course, she has been not so apparent on the campaign trail. she had that speech at the
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republican national convention, but we have not seen her much on the trail even by donald trump's side during this campaign. it is much focused on trump's personality rather than his family life. we have seen more of his kids on the trail man melania. what i found so interesting about her speech is that she was talking about what she would be like as first lady. she said she was focus specifically bullying on social media -- that she would focus on in this country, specifically bullying on social media. she says the rhetoric has gotten so mean and that we have to be committee getting better with each other. that is raising a lot of eyebrows today because donald has built a campaign on name-calling and insulting and undercutting his opponent in absolutely any way he can and in his social media following that goes after critics of him with ferocity. that was certainly eyebrow raising.
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i wished melania was on the trail more even though they are not saying it. mark: as i said earlier, trump was the nation's most prominent cyber bully. her remarks seem ironic, if nothing else. we have about one minute left. it was not long ago that kellyanne conway was acknowledging that trump was the underdog. in my conversations, they are suggesting that the race is tight or maybe the favorite at , this point. what is his staff's posture about where they stand? staff is extraordinarily confident right now. they were handed a gift with the revival of the fbi the station, and another one with obama care premiums rising, and another one with donna brazil giving clinton questions before the debate. they have a lot to be president about. they even claim they are gaining ground in a pretty blue state
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like mexico. if you talk to people outside the campaign, they will still say it is tough for donald trump to win. they are hopeful that he is moving in a more positive direction in the polls. not necessarily that he's going to win, but that the down ballot races is in a much better position than they were last week. mark: thank you very much. we are going to talk wikileaks and the fbi when we come back, right after this break. ♪
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>> we are joined by advisor to the democratic national committee, and republican strategist and former deputy fiorina.ger for carly great to see you. let me start out with you, tracy. i will ask you guys the same question we are asking everybody when we start out these blocks. where do you see the race? tracy: first of all, i am in chicago and i see the race and everything right now through the lens of last night's huge win, so forgive me for the euphoria that is still extending here, but as far as the race goes, i think we are in a good place. what hillary has got going for
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her continues to be one of her strongest advantages, and that her ground game. what is happening in the state and organization, early voting, all of these factors are very much in her favor. i am feeling confident about tuesday night. john: tracy, congratulations on your clubs, by the way. no kidding. sorry about that. go cubs! you're waiting a long time for that. sara, you are in boston and we have got you in the right place. what do you think about where the race stands right now? >> i would've agree that hillary has this much vaunted ground game. you look at early vote numbers showing up in florida and north carolina, and if i were the hillary campaign i would be , getting extraordinarily nervous. when you have new hampshire tied and nevada closing in, i'm going to keep watching those nevada numbers move because i think , that is where this might come
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down to if florida and north carolina get away from her. mark: sarah, give me an anecdote. tell me someone who was not for trump before but now is. sarah: you know what, i'm not sure it is people changing their minds, but what we saw about a week and a half ago was the enthusiasm numbers flipped. the last three months, trump's enthusiasm numbers have been higher but then hillary took over and her enthusiasm numbers were higher. what happened with the comey e-mails, those numbers changed again. when you have two such unlikable candidates, and i think we can see why based on the as you just showed, i think that is a real problem. where as 2012, republicans were down in early vote counts, and they are up by a real margin. in north carolina, the turnout operation is not working. either hillary clinton's campaign is intentionally not turning early voters out, or they lied when they said it was their strategy, or things are
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not going the way they thought they would. anchor: tracy, as you look at the new clinton ad and the continued attempts to define donald trump as unacceptable, is that working? would you think that is not working? tracy: what i think is masterful about the approach is that all of these ads are just donald himself. footage of him talking, the things he said, things he has done. it really is sort of hands-off, you could say, for the hillary campaign. he just makes the case for himself through his ridiculousness and the lying and and the dangerous and divisive things he says. i think the fact that all you have to do is play the tape of him tells the story and tells it extraordinary well. particularly, when you think about the negative ads he is running against hillary are largely based on innuendo as opposed to video clips of hillary clinton talking. he has given the campaign a gift
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in this regard. the clinton campaign is smart to be utilizing at the way they have. tracy, let me push back on that. as i looked at those ads, what struck me about them, in addition to the clinton ad being beautifully produced and the trump campaign manager looks more like a garrish tabloid style, the ads are in a style of ads we have been seeing for months and months. the trump campaign at is injecting fresh information and controversy into the race. to me that ad is more eye-catching. it has a great more possibility for impact because it is new. it has the feel of something new. does that not concern you? tracy: what i do know is how many people are going to make their decisions assuming they have not voted yet, they are going to make those decisions based on their conversations
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with their friends and colleagues and neighbors. i do not see any of its where a tv ad is someone's ultimate deciding factor. five days out, i am not concerned. i think you are right that there is a garish, tabloidish quality. when one of those ads came on, where i was watching the place , erupted into boo's. it is not a welcome sight right now. john: sarah, we were talking about paths to 270 electoral votes. donald trump spending time in places like new mexico, michigan, wisconsin. just from a strategic standpoint, do you think it makes sense for him to spend precious days in states like that that have been so blue for so long? sarah: no. i would be locking down florida, north carolina, and then battling in nevada, new hampshire, pennsylvania. what i do think is stunning is
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that the hillary campaign is sending hillary to michigan tomorrow. nothing shows me the internal panic of a campaign as much as the candidate's scheduling and going to a state that has no senate race. nothing explains that except they think michigan is on a map. if michigan is on the map for them, this whole thing is slipping away quickly. it is stunning that a democrat would say that tv ads don't ma outspent trumps on tv. there is panic going on inside hillary camp right now. i think it is warranted. i think that moving forward, they will have to do some soul-searching about what their message is going to be heading into sunday and monday in order to turn their voters out election day. election day has traditionally been a republican day. anchor: tracy, are you panicked? tracy: opposite of. [laughter] point,ciate sarah's although i think she was misconstruing what i said. it is not that ads don't matter,
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is that the millions of dollars spent on campaign ads have made the case. one ad in the final five days is not going to be the make or break. it is the sum total we are talking about here. anchor: ok, tracy sefl, because the cubs won, tracy sefl gets the last word. oh, you are coming back. i forgot about that. more of these two fantastic strategists. they are not going to say goodbye at. don't forget you can listen on the radio radio on bloomberg 99.1 fm. we will be back with them. ♪
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mark: back with democratic strategist tracy sefl and sarah isgur flores in boston. i want to ask you guys about wikileaks. sarah there has been lots of , documents out, nothing that has been a huge silver bullet. if you were to choose one of the disclosures, a specific e-mail from the podesta inbox or outbox, or a theme, what has been the most damaging to hillary clinton? tracy: i would pick from the past the election. i think the donna brazile e-mails really validate what bernie sanders been saying about their primary process being rigged. i think it really validate that claimant. i think you see more dissension in the democrat ranks, particularly from the base. if you're looking at a democrat running in the primary in 2018 or those leaks were incredibly 2020, damaging to the inside structure of the party. mark: you don't think it has done anything to help donald trump?
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tracy: not really. we have seen nothing in particular that would have changed voter's minds. enthusiasm, maybe. overall, i think the fbi e-mail issues are far more impactful. if you do not want the fbi involved in your election, do not nominate someone being investigated by the fbi. that is settling with voters someone they cannot really trust , on national security issues. mark: tracy, what do you think the impact of the wikileaks disclosures day after day have been? on trump's and clinton's chances? tracy: considering the manner in which these documents were received, it difficult for me to say they will have it in profound impact on the election. what could have an impact is the fact of the crime and the manner in which they were collected and released. that is where i see the problem, what i am talking about with cyber security issues and a
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hostile foreign state's potential involvement in these leaks. that is the larger concern, one that lasts well beyond election day. sarah: tracy, don't you think people would think that that means hillary's server was hacked too? tracy: i appreciate the question, but i do not and so. it is clear that this story has been playing out for so long, so agonizingly long, that anyone who has formed an opinion about it formed that opinion some time ago. john: tracy, there is word that the fbi is not likely to finish its review of the e-mails that are the subject that are the subject of the phase of being inquiry before election day. from the standpoint of the race itself, do you think it is important -- that it would be important for the fbi to try to
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come forward with some kind of a statement before the election day or if they had not finished , their inquiry, that they just keep their mouths shut and not get back into the election again before tuesday? tracy: i would be happy to not have them rear their heads again. it is clear that places a miss, -- that place is a mess. whether it is management issues or the leaks we are seeing with the constant bewildering information we are seeing, and on top of all of that, it is very vague. we do not even know what it is we are talking about that they are reviewing or not reviewing, finishing or not finishing. at this point, given the mess they have made and the muddled circumstances that all of us have been forced to muck around in, let us be done with it. that is my personal opinion, and i certainly hope i am right. mark: congratulations on that baseball victory. congratulations for being part of america. we will be right back and check in with two reporters in
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washington about the campaign after these words from our sponsors. ♪
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john: we are five days away from the election, and joined now by two people who hopefully have long vacations planned in their future. in our nation's capital, eliana johnson and the great matea gold. eliana, just to start, it is said and seems to be true that part of what is happening with donald trump and his closing the gap between him and hillary clinton has to do with republican consolidation, republicans coming home to donald trump. can you explain to me why republicans are coming home? what is driving that at this late stage?
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eliana: i think that is right. you can see that clearly in utah. the independent candidate evan mcmullin has been surging in the polls as recently as last week. donald trump is actually leading the latest polls. mcmullin has fallen to third place in some of them. as you get closer and closer to election day, there tends to be fewer and fewer undecided voters , so i think it is natural to see people who had been sitting on their hands and telling pollsters they are unwilling to vote for donald trump, coming home as election day nears. john: i mean, obviously, it is the case that the race is often cited and that undecided voters eventually go one way or the other, but republicans who had profound misgivings about donald trump for months, what has happened in the state and the race that has caused people who had big misgivings about trump to abandon those misgivings and come back to their natural home?
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eliana: one factor is that trump has been much been quiet for the last few weeks. one constant in this race has been that whoever, whichever candidate is in the headlines, the other candidate benefits. when donald trump is making news, hillary clinton benefits and vice versa. it is hillary clinton has been in the headlines the past few weeks and donald trump has benefited. most of this campaign, donald trump has played right into hillary clinton's hands, eaten up most of the newspaper headlines and airtime on television shows, but that has not been the case for the last couple of weeks. that is for trump's benefit. john: matea, we have on the democratic side, a mirror image situation going on as republicans are coming home, democrats seem very worried now elements oft, core the democratic base, the obama coalition and there is some , evidence to suggest they are right to be worried. what can the clinton campaign do
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to fix that problem in the short amount of time remaining before election day? matea: you see their action plan deployed right now. their spear is really president obama, who is out there nonstop until election day. yesterday, north carolina, today in florida, making incredibly personal appeals to african-american voters. he said yesterday, he is worried that african-american vote is not as solid as it should be and telling those voters, look, this is a vote for my legacy, if you want my legacy to continue, you need to cast your ballot and come out to vote. we are going to see him put it all out on the line. the clinton campaign is also using their enormous warchest to run last ads. they are allied super pac is jumping in as well. there will be no shortage of average to these voter, the question is whether you can mobilize voters and get them to feel the stakes of this election.
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john: matea, staying with you. there has been a lot of focus on the african-american piece of this. i am curious about whether there is a similar problem or not among hispanic voters. obviously, a larger segment of the population and super important. what do you know about the degrees to which enthusiasm, enthusiasm levels along that key demographic for clinton? matea: we are seeing early indications of the latino vote being up in key states in nevada and florida. i think democrats feel more confident about that demographic, and we have seen an incredible amount of energy going into register latino voters and get them out to the polls. trump's polarizing comments from the beginning of this campaign have really mobilized that community. you are hearing from activists on the ground that people are engaged. it is a matter of making sure people who are low propensity voters actually know where to go, actually know how to cast their ballot. mark: i want to talk a little bit more about the electoral
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college and correct something we got wrong earlier. when we were talking about hillary clinton's symbolist path. we made an error on a graphic. i appreciate those on twitter who aggressively pointed it out. here is the updated, corrected graphic that shows hillary clinton's solid blue states. it gives her 195 electoral votes. the state where clinton is leading in public polling by five points or more, pennsylvania, virginia, michigan, wisconsin, new mexico. that is 64 electoral votes and gets her within just 11 from that last column. you can see there are plenty of options. let me ask you, matea, it seems to me what this illustrates is that beyond that hillary clinton has a far easier road, that trump will have to have a national search. he'll not be able to cherry pick his way to 270 electoral votes. does that make sense to you? matea: he has to have so many things go in his favor at this point.
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the trump campaign sees a lot of potential in these blue states but the reality is he needs , florida and blue states. he needs to create a coalition of a lot of these places to park that path. she have to hold him off in a couple of key places. that is still the case even though the polls have tightened. i think she has obviously more ways to get there than he does at this point. eliana, i am sure there was working for donald trump are ecstatic and believe this is close. what do you hear from republicans working on down ballot races, for trump's but not wild about him? are they significantly more optimistic? eliana: i think the most significant ramification of the tightening of the race will not be for trump himself, who i think is still likely to lose on tuesday, but for some of these down ballot republicans who can only run so far ahead of trump.
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they cannot outrun him by 10 points, but maybe by five or six points. people are much more optimistic for example about republicans holding the senate. somebody like kelly ayotte in new hampshire or pat toomey in pennsylvania, who is running neck and neck with katie mcginty. some republicans are much more optimistic about their chances to win these races and then were 10 days ago. matea, you talked to a lot of republicans donors. do they seem more optimistic about trump chances than they did a week ago? matea: i think people are worried about the ground effort. they are worried about the fact that the democrats and clinton have an incredible imbalance when it comes to mobilizing voters. that is a direct result of her superior fundraising operation that she started a full year before he did.
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i think the day after the election, we are going to be sifting through a lot of this to figure out what happened. that is going to be a key role. mark: thank you both. john and i will be right back. ♪
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mark: donald j. trump may be the tomorrow, thanks forn
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