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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  November 4, 2016 12:00pm-3:31pm EDT

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mark: we are to take you from new york to london to washington and paris. here is what we are watching today. entering the final days of the presidential campaign. hillary clinton has the upper hand. while donald trump is demonstrating some strength in iowa and ohio. and the impact can be found in the metal markets. a weekly gain on the u.s. brexit vote. and a shakeup in the luxury world. will the house
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overhaul admit some of the sales? mark: are the minutes until the friday session. every industry group is falling. we are down for the ninth day. if yesterday the index hadn't risen by 0.01%. we are on track for a second weekly decline. week a 3.4% decline. that is highlighted in the vix index. the longest stretch since august 2011. shares rising as much of 17%.
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back catalog sales growth and cost control. this is a company that created assassins creed, it has been fighting off any attempt for the largest shareholder from grabbing more control backed by the financial outlook and the ability to offer better returns. shares rallying today. third-quarter profit up by 1.1%. upsetting a slump in the united states. spending more on developing electric cars, struggling to sell luxury sedans in the u.s.. crown as these its
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best-selling luxury carmaker to mercedes. shares fell on the day. let's get to the french insurer. largely unchanged from a year ago. insurance policies upset by a higher demand for prof ready and record low rates weighing ininsa higher demand for prof on insurance, which face tighter capital requirements. the new chief executive targeting 2.1 billion euros of cost cuts by 2020. shares down by 3%. 30 minutes until the end of the friday session. seeing a bounce back
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from that eight session losing streak. it looks like the headline number was disappointing. rising year-over-year the most in seven years. there is still a lot of trepidations surrounding the election next week. another is called implied correlation. you are looking at the blue. this implied correlation is in white. how much do people think he 50 largest stocks are going to move in tandem? moving in reaction to macro events. is one measure of perceived risk. dollar has been
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fluctuating in the wake of that jobs report. we do have these warring impulses. oil is exhibiting some impulses. that is after reports that saudi to raised threatened production if other members would not agree to production cuts. then there was a headline saying that wasn't the case. really a roller coaster in what has been a negative week. >> at least that is something else to distract us from the presidential election. julie hyman at our markets desk. let's check in with first word news. mark crumpton in the newsroom.
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the fbi and police are investigating the possibility of al qaeda attack on the eve of election day. officials were reviewing information that viewed new york, texas, and virginia as potential targets. a senior aide to hillary clinton privately dismissed james comey as a bad choice for the post in october 2015. that is according to newly released e-mails from wikileaks. that a found indications laptop used by anthony weiner, the estranged husband of clinton , containedberdeen e-mails relating to the pro. firmer -- two former allies guilty of plotting traffic jams in the name of political retaliation.
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they were accused of intentionally creating the chaos at the george washington bridge over several days in september 2013. this was meant to public -- meant to punish the democratic mayor. a claim contradicted by multiple witnesses. french police are evacuated thousands of migrants from an illegal camp. reporting police and city officials are removing about 3000 migrants from sudan, if he'll be a, and other countries. taken to temporary shelters where they will be able to apply for asylum. world news paris. by 2600wered journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark: thank you very much.
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most.tocks falling the the 10 year bond is set for the biggest rally since september. longer data yields leading the rally. the chart you are looking at is the global aggregate index, which has risen in recent days since the election. has manager at msg, which re-hundred $10 billion under management. us.ber is behind many bond investors may say that is a relief. reaction depending on the scenario stood next week's collection? -- next week's election. >> it depends on the outcome of
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the election. we will see a relief rally in assets. but also in the corporate on space. in terms of an outcome that produces president trump or a i think i would continue a risk of episode like we have seen in the last couple of days. >> longer-term yields -- clinton versus trump presidency. always have to distinguish they are a combined product. there is no reason to believe these will always move in the
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same direction. i think if they disentangled that and looked at government in terms of volatility and picking up uncertainty in the markets, you would expect treasuries to do well. however there have been remarks by donald trump that the u.s. should not repay these u.s. treasuries in full. that may cause some uncertainty with regards to u.s. treasury, valuations going forward. we see more devaluation potential there. is that -- investment-grade bonds. bam assuming they keep getting they are buying other
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companies or issuing dividends or buying back stocks. are assessing credit risk, event risk. what kind of return do you need? >> how will our we compensated? we are still very much at the low end of the spectrum. we are pretty much at a pre-brexit referendum. see a very't attractive risk reward payoff. trading below zero.
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very poor asymmetrical risk. in terms of credit risk, a lot of names. not having -- re the bank of england is buying corporate bonds. >> will kind of premium would you need for a aaa bond here in the u.s.? guest: it is hard to find any corporate bond. vonnie: i should say high investment rates. guest: we're looking at the mid 100s in terms of credit spreads. it is a more defensive sector
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and lower on risk premium. in terms of the curve of the u.s. dollar, the long and valuation is more attractive. investor, i think now is the time to buy it in the long end. i think the credit spread is attractive. you see credit spreads of around 200 basis points. that is an attractive level, around 250, where we see valuation. >> what has changed from the credit perspective? it gives us a pretty strong forward guidance.
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what does that mean for government bonds? >> i find it hard to rationalize that statement that policy actions can go in both .irections i think for me the bank of england is stating the obvious. keeping inflation in check. keep bothng that they options on the table. >> normally they say poverty is balanced. we have been pushed to expect rates to be cut or rates to be raised. it is a new tack for a while.
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in having balance policy here in the u.k. at least. justified. they have communicated and overshoot of the inflation. i think communicating now to the market that these options are on the table is probably the right thing to do. the market tends to be complacent. of market participants find themselves in the position that they believe the central --ks are undoubtedly promoting economic growth and inflation rate. intobrings it back rational territory. >> fund manager.
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>> as the presidential race heads and the final weekend -- we will let you know how each nominee is doing. this is bloomberg.
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away.are 12 minutes vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york i am vonnie quinn. we are heading into the final weekend before election day. early pricing voting is complacent about many of the battleground states. companies to win these that'll ground states. ohio, iowa, they are the most
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important states. who is doing well? >> iowa is a state where democrats for years have been aggressive about early voting. they have gotten a huge lead. when democrats win that it's because they built up an early advantage and they withstand the traditional republican election day wave. this year we saw a shift in tactics. they shifted to a republican model. relying a lot more on election day. we just have to turn out people on election day.
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and that they don't have a big enough lead to outvote us on election day. >> that is not the case in every state, is it? >> that looks good for trump if you believe the republican numbers. the clinton campaign has had trouble turning out voters. it is a shorter period of time. a rule change in ohio that got rid of golden week. you can show up, registered to vote, and vote on the same day. democrats say that is having an effect on the numbers. african-american voters have not turned out in the same way as they did for barack obama four
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years ago. that is why they are investing so heavily in ohio right now. that clearly directed toward turning out some of those voters. >> if there is one county where trump held its national convention in july, that is presenting a headache for the democrats. this is an important county area for democrats. it has always turned out more democratic. turnout, andabout places where democrats need over and the election day republican leading voters, cuyahoga county is important. >> working all weekend into
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tuesday. with bloomberg tv's david gura and make and murphy. >> we are five minutes away from the friday session. this is bloomberg.
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live from london and new york i am vonnie quinn. >> this is the european close on bloomberg markets. are six minutes away from the end of the friday session. >> a look at the biggest news stories right now. there has been a big acquisition in china's investment banking sector. the price, about 2.5 billion
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dollars. the european commission is demanding more information about the merger between dow chemicals and dupont. the dow says the deal is -- expected to close. the assets can be valued at more than $4 billion. if repairs to spend about $66 billion and maker monsanto. >> european equities down for the ninth day. the stock index, the ftse 100,
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the benchmark hasn't fallen for five days. that tells you about the heightened nervousness. sterling heading for the biggest weekly gain against the dollar in quite a while. it received a double boost. saying theresa may cannot trigger article 50. the close is minutes away. this is bloomberg.
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mark: from london and new york, this is the european close. stocks of finishing the session on friday. we have not had again for 11
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days. rose byy, the stoxx 600 0.01, and on percentage terms, and that is not a change. by molecule yesterday, but we have not seen gains essentially for 11 days. we are over stalled if you look at the rsi. every industry group down today, nervous ahead of next week's election. we are on track for the second weekly decline. this week put the 3.4% fall is the biggest since february. index, theope's fear volatility index. it is basically our vix index. look at the move since the end of october, today gaining for the 10th executive day. that is the longest gain stretch
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since august 2011. we are at the highest since july 7 after the u.k. referendum. as--brexit, we rose as high 40. close on june 11 was 40, highest since august 2015. looking at some individual stocks, this is the world's biggest cosmetics company, l'oreal am a shares up a 2.3% today. third-quarter revenues beat estimates on rising demand for high-end brands in north america. l'oreal supplied high-end fragrance and makeup brands to build on growth momentum in north america. they have compensated for slower demand in asia and western europe, where l'oreal did admit
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it is still outperforming the market. a busy week for sterling, still headed for its biggest week gain against the dollar since march. the bank of england was less dovish than it had previously been. 50 before article parliament backs it, also giving a boost to the pound. this week, it has risen against all 31 of its major peers. we are up for the six the day, the best run since march of you have got some breaking news? theivonnie: bloomberg is first report that whole foods is trading again. moved as much as 5%, still up 2.6%. one of the top 10 shareholders said to be planning to push for changes. for inventoryited
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in vendor management, high miller neil shopper issues. it has met with activist investors -- and millennial shopper issues. it has met with activist investors. they are looking at options. ok, let's look at the u.s. major indices. the dow jones industrial average up 39 points, still below 18,000. the s&p is performing well, mostly thanks to hospital stocks and supply stocks, health care suppliers. they are up more than 1% as a group. the s&p is up .4%. the nasdaq is up .4%, as well. let's look at some of the other metrics. 21%, and thatve creep higher is continuing. it does seem to be down just a tad. higher on the week.
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same for the dollar. it is lower thanks to a little yen strength in some strengths in other parts of the market. in general, the dollar is holding on to its strength. we're watching the lira because of the pro-kurdish party leaders in turkey, trading at its weakest ever, a record for the lira. it is a 1.8% decline versus the u.s. dollar. the mexican peso is a little stronger today. a look at commodities, gold futures are off. they are above $13 -- $1300 an ounce. they had a few nice days of gains. crude oil futures have been having a very tough -- very topsy-turvy day, above $44 a barrel now for wti, down 1.4%. we will dig into the oil story
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again today. look at the yields after the jobs report. swing states look like it might be closer election than we thought. let's go to mark crumpton. c.: hillary clinton has a three have a point lead over trump in a new national poll. 47% to 44%. voters trust clinton to handle the economy and health care. it comes the edge when to dealing with corruption in government and immigration issues -- donald trump has the edge when it comes to dealing with corruption and government. state officials in florida say nearly 5.3 million people have voted by mail or polling precincts. nearly, that total was 4.8 million. florida is crucial for donald
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trump, who must win there to reach 270 electoral votes. chris christie says he had no role in authorizing lane realignments on the george washington bridge that today resulted in the convictions of two of his former aides. jurors found them guilty on all counts. they were accused of intentionally creating the chaos on the bridge over several days and september 2013. it was meant to punish the earlieric mayor who refused to endorse republican chris christie's reelection bid. a lawmaker from the u.k. prime minister pose a conservative party is resigning his seat, citing irreconcilable policy differences with the current government for his torture. he protested the print minister's intent to implement brexit without going through parliament. yesterday, he said parliamentary approval is needed.
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news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. gold holding near a one-month high as investors look at the need for safe haven before the presidential election. let's find out more about commodities. chris gaffney is joining us. thanks for joining. gold has gone above $1300 an ounce. how short-term edge trade is this and how psychological? is athink it psychological. there is a question about the election results, obviously, and the direction of the fed. anytime you have uncertainty in the market, investors will naturally move towards safe havens, and one of those is gold. there is a lot of investor uncertainty right now. the interest rates are kind of
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keeping the expectations of interest rates -- we expect the fed to move in december, so that would be negative for gold. that is keeping a lid on the prices of gold right now. vonnie: why would investors suddenly be looking for safe haven? >> because of the uncertainty -- vonnie: but it is not the beginning of the election cycle. >> writes, but we have the brexit, several things stacking up and favoring gold -- right, but when a brexit. the u.k. course of parliament must approve any article 50. so that started us out. investor anxiety, we have seen the vix increased dramatically. again, that goes into safe haven. we have also seen some safe haven buying of the japanese yen. mark: gold is up 32% this year. will it continue to outperform its cousin? theost of that move came in
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first half. we saw a dramatic move in all the precious metals, they outperformed the rest of the market in the first half of this year. i think that gold will actually investorse haven choice going into the year-end. interest rates, even if the fed increases interest rates in december, lower interest rates, there is lower opportunity costs on holding gold. therefore, if you have an outlook by the fed that interest rates are going to stay low, which i think they will stay a accommodate of them in a matter of they raise rates or not, it will not be another 4% in 2017. that we had this report the saudi's are threatening to raise output, and then it was said that the kingdom did not make that threat. bottom line, prices are at the lowest levels since opec agreed
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to the deal in algeria. is there doubt about pushing through this deal? >> absolutely. i do not think anyone expects them to be able to push through the deal. oil as a supply and we saw inventories rise. a pretty good pump in inventories in the u.s. anytime you see the price jump up, we have production that can come online fairly quickly. non-opec members. russia is ready to ramp up production and needs to. and you have the shale producers. so i think oil is going to face a lot of headwinds going forward. until global gdp and global growth catches up with production, i think the supply is going to outpace demand, and prices will remain subdued. vonnie: $40 a barrel again? >> it is a push-pull.
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you get prices to, and some of that production comes off the market. there is more of the need for opec to agree, so they may come out and try to jawbone the price back up. i think between $60 and $40 is the range we stick, and i do not think it will move too much out of that range. talkingp -- vonnie: about china and next year with aluminum demand, the growth forecast out of china does not seem too bad. >> it is still good. they are still going to grow fast. we have good growth in india and a lot of infrastructure spending in both of those countries that we are going to see. india may outpaced china. steel supply production is up, and we have seen that in steel prices and also in cold. -- in coal. you see andemand, as
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emerging middle class and more consumers in india and china, china being the number one automobile market, so continued growth in that economy should help aluminum. mark: crr, commodity right return, is our function on the chart. right at the top of the board is nc up by 42%. copper is the worst performing metal. what has zinc got? >> a supply shortage. in areas ofis mined russia and china that we have seen a slowdown, a pullback. i think that is a supply question. copper has always been a metal we used to judge global gdp growth. the copper down is not a good sign for global gdp. you, chrisnk
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gaffney. we appreciate you being in studio with us today. era ofoming up, has the the chief executive come to an deep up? we will tell you about one luxury company dispensing with the role. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: life from london and new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: and i am mark barton to her this is the european close spirit time for the bloomberg business flash. to sell itsagreed data center business to a group
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of private investors for $2.15 billion in cash, a portion used to fund its $34 billion acquisition of level 3 communications, a consortium will purchase the division. centurylink will keep a minority stake valued at $150 million in the new venture. walmart is going green or the world's largest retailer laying out its environmental map for the next several years as it tries to satisfy customers who want green products at affordable prices. the retailer will seek to reduce emissions by 18% by 2025 of its operations and plans to be clean and 50% renewable energy sources. mcdonald's says it will significantly raise its technology spending over the next two years. they plan self-serve kiosks and
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mobile ordering app. they will focus on the 10 largest markets, including the u.s., australia, and china. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. ceo's are so last season. one company decided to eliminate is role, an unusual approach a company is navigating into mulch downturn in the luxury market. we have our bloomberg gaslight columnist who ran the story. her story, a brilliant line. ceo's are so last season. is it going to catch on? >> i do not think so. it is a special case of the chairman has left the company before, and he will very much steer things this time around.
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he will very much oversee the situation, but saying that have shared responsibility through a number of directors. mark: it is quite radical, and investors are buying into it. >> yes. are easy, but it will not get any easier anytime soon, particularly for ridgemont which pays at the high end of the market. they mentioned things like digital or that will become more important, getting young people to buy into switch watch -- into swiss watch. vonnie: i wonder if the reason they made this move is because all the ceo's are gone because luxury retailers are swapping them like crazy right now, or is it a question about the creative control being more important than a ceo in a company like this, because the creative action injures success or
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failure -- ensures success or failure. >> i think both. a company like ridgemont is creative but also technical. ridgemont faces a lot of pressures, such as overcapacity in the watch industry. vonnie: where will they find somebody to be in the top echelons of leadership? will they hire anybody knew? >> no, they are not going to hire a ceo. they are going to spread the responsibility between these two executives. directorshad eight actually leaving, and they may appoint some other internal executives to the board. with thet changes portfolio did this entail? which brands need a real shakeup? >> some of the high-end watch brands, rwc is doing ok, some of the really high-end watch brands
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could really need attention. that also have a portfolio of clothing and apparel, which really needs addressing. a premium to at swatch, is that deserved? >> it is deserved. they're tackling the issues they are facing. it is said to be tackling watchmaking overcapacity. swatch has not done that. it amake it -- swatch make recovery sooner because some of the price points are lower. mark: andrea, wonderful you are so not last season. thank you for joining us today. gadf on bloomberg. up, quite the news cycle for the u.k. vote on brexit, e-mail controversy, and we will see how u.s. treasuries have responded. this is bloomberg.
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vonnie: my favorite time of the day, our global battle of the charts. looking at what the charts mean for investors. you can access these on the bloomberg. we will tell you the functions so you can look it up. kicking things off is lisa abramowicz. to look at the correlation between oil and junk bonds. we have heard about how riskier securities have been selling off. a lot of people blaming the election tidbit you can blame oil. oil is declining the most since january. the orange line is wti crude spot price from bloomberg. the white line is the energy junk bond index, rather, the
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junk bond index from bloomberg. they have kind of been moving in tandem, kind of split apart. since about between fourth, they have been declining in tandem. this is telling, because oil prices have been underpinning a lot of the lu, particularly energy junk bonds. as these energy prices go down, there is less of an incentive for people to buy these junk bonds. if you look at the risk assets selling off, it is the election, but perhaps it is something more, perhaps it is also oil. niced leeza, very presentation. mark: how do u.s. treasuries fair after the election? look what happened after the u.k. referendum in june, the 10-year yield 19 basis point on day one. 13 basis point sunday to pot. something like that
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could happen here. there could be a massive disjoint sending 10-year yields down by 10 basis points. since the low, yields have risen a 36 basis points. hillary clinton's lead over trump started widening in late july. bank of america improving prospects. they have fallen a little bit in the last week. the clinton e-mail controversy has been reignited. if hillary clinton wins, bank of america said we would see a selloff in favor of riskier assets. longer-term, a clinton history -- victory would do little to yields because the fiscal stimulus would be relatively small. expect yields to fall, but after the dust andles, his tax cuts infrastructure spending may drive yields back up, especially the gop holds the senate and house.
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it is also said that the impact ifld be exaggerated countries with large treasuries stakes unload them. butie: i love that chart, we are talking about so many unknowns here that that chart might be even better on wednesday next week. mark: i will be back next week. vonnie: we said, we can already talk about the price of oil. all right, more bloomberg markets coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: good afternoon. welcome to bloomberg markets.
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: we cover stories from san francisco to chicago, marrakesh in moscow. the u.s. economy added 161,000 jobs in october and wage growth accelerated. a rate hike is all but certain next month. bill gross tell us why he thinks the fed will cave to financial markets. days to go until the presidential election, and we have a look at what investors need to watch. how bad could the selloff be? even with the affordable care act, some americans are still finding care unaffordable. we are halfway through the trading day. polling holding a pretty well in the wake of the jobs report. there were early fluctuations, but things have settled to the upside. it is also reaction to eight
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straight down days for the s&p 500 and major averages. there has been a slump. now seeing a little bit of a snapback, particularly on that wage growth. but the election doesn't loom large. -- but the election does loom large. beenis a chart we have looking at, looking at the clinton-trump polling average. clinton's advantage over trump has been going down. index, aa market risk proxy for perceived risks in the market right now. we have the correlation on the bottom. even though we see kind of a snap in both today upward, and downward in the market risk perception, it is still something investors are talking about. we are watching oil, which is had a pretty terrible week. it is down another 1.5% today. it initially fell after reuters
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reported saudi arabia was threatening to raise production of other opec members would not get on board with the cut plan per the opec secretary-general denied that report. we saw oil pair those declines, but it has come and down again. that has been holding back equities and energy shares. .e are watching whole foods in the last half hour, bloomberg news reported that one of the company's largest shareholders has met with potential activist investors to talk about making sweeping changes, potentially putting the company up for sale. the shareholder raised concerns in a recent meeting. this is according to people .amiliar with the matter we are going to get many more details on this later in the hour. you see the reaction, shares only up by about .8%. but shares did spike on the story. atave been looking
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same-store sales numbers. here are comparable sales going back a couple years, four years to be exact, five years almost. we have seen a downturn, slowing growth, and no negative same-store sales. this is one of the areas of concern. a lot of competition from the likes of walmart and other groceries pushing further into organics. on, we're looking at alexi pharmaceutical maker, after they canceled an appearance at the credit suisse analyst day on speculation maybe it was making strategic changes or a deal. now the company is delaying its 10q filing, so shares fell back. and analyst says the delay is more significant than the canceling out of the conference, and if the company does not file in time, that will be interpreted negatively by investors.
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we will continue to watch these shares, as well. david: thank you for that update. mark: four days until the election, and a new abc news washington post nationwide tracking poll has hillary clinton with a 47% to 44% lead over donald trump. the clinton campaign yesterday in north carolina with bernie sanders. trump was also a north carolina, where he appeared with veterans. not clintone could as commander-in-chief. the fbi in new york police department are investigating the possibility of an al qaeda attack on the eve of election day. officials are reviewing information that mentioned new york, texas, and virginias potential targets. new york police say the information received is not specific. in south carolina, a bystander who took video footage of a white police officer shooting an unarmed like man testified today
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. he says the recording of the 2015 shooting is something he will never forget. the judge denied a motion by the defense to keep the video out of the trial. 30icer michael slater faces years to life if convicted in the death of walker's -- walter scott. climate change law coming into force faster than anticipated today, capping a year of success in international efforts to reduce admissions of, dioxide and other global warming gases. under the deal agreed to in the french capital, some 200 minis agreed to move economies away from fossil fuels and limit global warming to two degrees celsius or 3.6 degrees fahrenheit. it has been 118 years in the making. today, the city of chicago is honoring the world series champion cubs. it is a continuation of the party the began wednesday night when the cubs defeated the cleveland indians in one of the most dramatic game seven's in
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world series history. in grant park is scheduled to get away shortly. ae chicago river was dyed bright shade of blue to match the cubs' colors. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: the department of labor says the u.s. added 161,000 jobs last month and the unappointed rate felt to 4.9%. wages rose the most year over year since 2009. tom keene and i spoke with bill gross and asked him why he continues to have caution. >> i would admit it is a good report. two important factors. earnings were growing more than normal were one of those factors.
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it is good for the consumer going forward. i counsel caution on the basis of structural changes and on the basis of a recent report by the federal reserve done over cyclical month period of time that spoke to demographics and the negative influence on growth over the past several decades and its potential for continuing to be negative. there are structural items, such andeight that and leverage technology displacement of jobs of a longer-term basis -- such as debt. mode.eal growth as we shift to markets and the influence of the growth of markets, which is an important consideration, earnings do not 1.5% growthat 1% to rates, and that has been the case in the past five quarters.
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we have had an earnings recession as it is. markets had better look to real growth as opposed to unemployment and the employment, which janet yellen tends to do, for an aggregate forecast. >> you bring up growth. we got the gdp numbers a few days ago, and there may be some worrying signs. how does that influence the fed going forward? >> they are not necessarily sensitive to gdp. it is in terms of the fed not necessarily focusing on a specific growth measure, and that is true. they focus on 2% inflation. ultimately, the growth rate influences financial markets. in terms of the election, we could get a shot or an ultimate realization of the major reason equity targets are being held up
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is due to the magic of central banks and quantitative easing, then at some point if the markets start to decline, then the fed will back off. the fed is a slave to the financial markets. vice versa is what i experience and what many of you experience over the past 10, 20, 30 years. david: you made the analogy of central bankers to gamblers. from what we have seen in the intervening couple of weeks, do you see central bankers taking stock, reevaluating, becoming interested active? -- becoming introspective? will they might just maybe accept limits to what they are doing? -- will they maybe accept limits to what they are doing? >> it is not just to the real economy, it is a reflection of financial markets here at
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savings institutions, such as pension funds, 401(k), individual savings, and in a decent number of fed numbers another spokesman and women for other central banks are coming over to this side gradually. we have seen three dissents recently in terms of the fed statement. but coming over to the side that considers savers. tom: who are you going to support for president? i did not want to be direct, but it is four days to go here. i look at the job economy, and i look at how you have been on financial repression. do you have a preferred candidate that can give us less bill gross financial repression? >> i don't. minorly attacks the fed, and i am not quite sure what would happen if he became president, whether janet yellen
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would be asked to leave or not. i am positive it does not speak to financial repression and the fact that interest rates will gradually move higher. the statuslary is quo type of candidate, therefore the financial repression that has existed for several years now in terms of lower interest rates would be part of the mantra. that she has not really spoken to that. tom: negative interest rates are out there, raging debate. do any to pull ourselves away from this experiment of negative rates? do we maintain it into next year? what would be your counsel to global leaders? >> i think we need to pull away. i think that is one of the reasons yellen is being influenced by some of the fed members in terms of the consideration. i think it is an experiment to raise interest rates in a period of time in which inflation is
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coalescing. objectively, negative interest rates have an influence on the real economy. that is not always positive, not always trickle-down. to the extent the bank interest rate margins are narrowed and profits are not doing well and to the extent that tensions and 401k's and insurance companies are heard by negative and narrow interest rate margins, then that ultimately affects the real economy. it has for the last year or so. david: that is part of my interview with bill gross it coming up, recent news in the market leaving many investors unsure what to believe on november 8 to it we have your u.s. election guide to the markets coming up next. vice president joe biden and madison, wisconsin, campaigning for hillary clinton. hillary clinton in pittsburgh.
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donald trump in the east. he's campaigning right now in new hampshire. later, he will be in wilmington, ohio. he says job supports numbers are an absolute disaster. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is bloomberg markets. time for bloomberg business flash. working with goldman assets, technology
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which could be valued at more than $4 billion. it prepares to spend about sixteenths -- $66 billion, buying monsanto. --ossible roger with viacom a possible merger with viacom. the broadcaster is an early stages of a deal. both companies are controlled by senator redstone and his daughter. that is your business flash update. u.s. days away from the presidential election. investors are increasing their hedges against donald trump and appending -- upending assumptions of a clinton win. a u.s. election guide to the markets with laura zalenko it we have been riveted watching the dollar-peso as a proxy throughout the election.
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what are the indicators you are paying attention to and investors are paying attention to? >> the anxiety and the market has really upended the conventional trends we have seen in the past. the ushe past 22 cycles, a be 500 has risen five days prior to the vote. the last eight days, we have been down. the volatility gige, the fear gauge in the market, has been up -- of the volatility gauge. you are seeing some concern in the market. trading firms are getting concerned, because you see them trying to prepare for the unexpected. about brexit and how traders are using that. >> what they are realizing is that they were caught flat-footed. there was an expectation that there would be a no vote and they were not prepared. so we had equity reporters
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across the country talking to trading firms, and they are preparing for possible technical glitches, liquidity issues, stops in trading. they are really concerned, and a lot of them are not expecting much sleep election day. >> the fbi director is so political in the last week. did it make a difference in traits? >> i think you saw a complete change in the way people were positioning. what we know now is that the most sanguine outcome for the markets would be more of the same, democrat in the white house, republicans in congress. that will be the sort of neutral result. anything else i think people are concerned about the immediate impact in the markets, particularly the stocks and the dollar. david: how useful a guide is history? we are looking at a chart. i was thinking about when we last had prolonged uncertainty
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after the presidential election in 2000 with bush versus gore. >> in 2000, you had the ambiguous vote results. the first four days, the market fell. the us of the 500 fell about 5% and kept falling. for november of 2000, we had about an eight percent decline, the worst monthly decline since august 1998. it wasference is that also the tech bubble bursting. whether that was exactly the reason for it. that historically, what you see in the initial aftermath of an election often does not dictate what will happen afterwards. even if you saw significant declines are gains after a clinton or trump win, there are certain industries we know would benefit from one or the other. or trump, banks and drugmakers benefit. the opposite for clinton.
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alternative energy producers. trump is better with oil producers. david: talk about foreign markets. you can imagine a plight to safety. where are investors looking? >> a trump win would be yen gains. probably the chinese currency falls, at least initially. the mexican government, interestingly, is preparing for the worst. they are concerned about a lot of pressure on the peso. theave talked about different actions they could take to bolster the peso. david: that is laura zalenko. appreciate it. watch tuesday at 7:00 p.m. eastern for our special election coverage. pair's climate due goes into effect today, but u.s. involvement could change after tuesday's presidential election. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is bloomberg markets. dealaris global climate goes into effect today as representatives get ready for the u.n. climate change summit in morocco next week. joining as is our climate change reporter dean scott. this is going into effect earlier than many expected. tot are the signals sent investors in the energy and alternative energy space? >> it is a big they for climate change because of that deal going into effect today -- it is a big day for climate change. it sends a signal to the world, one that we are going to do carbonized -- decarbonized the world by midcentury, and we will keep global temperatures from
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increasing her that sends a signal to renewable energy is thers that that course that the world is setting itself out upon. one thing we will be looking for in morocco next week when these talks resume is the interesting timing of this really, with the u.s. election. and what we will be listening for is, is there going to be a big sigh of relief from negotiators from nearly 200 countries when they get together ? because they will be watching the u.s. elections, and they have heard a lot of things from donald trump about undercutting a lot of what was done in paris. david: he has talked about on the campaign joe, describing climate change as a hoax perpetuated by the chinese -- he has talked about it on the campaign trail. what would a trump win do to climate change? >> president george bush withdrew the u.s. from kyoto
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about 15 years ago, and what a lot of the negotiators and investors in the renewable energy sector say is we are in a different world and it would be more difficult for u.s. president to do that today, mostly because we have had is intertwined the mustek relationships with china and india, other big players in forgy, and also in defense a broad array of connections. those relationships are interwoven. i think their prediction at this point is even if trump wins, it will be far more difficult for him to simply walk away or pull the rug a from underneath the paris deal. david: they are not talking about this on the campaign trail as much as we would like. and about hillary clinton the continuation of the status quo of economic policy, but what
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about climate change policies? >> hillary clinton's campaign has been missed a lot by reporters in terms of playing it up that climate change has not been part of either debates or this campaign. she does have a platform that has to do with extending a lot of what president obama has done on climate, his climate agenda. in calls for 30% reduction greenhouse gas omissions, a few are centage points be on what obama has pledged roughly 10 years from now -- a few percentage points lower. could pushvote forward marijuana legalization it we will tell you why that is, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: live from bloomberg wrote that chris new york, this is best world -- live from
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bloomberg world headquarters in new york, this is "bloomberg markets." a roanokerding to college bowl, clinton tops from 45% to 38% in virginia. gary johnson has 5%. jill stein is backed by 2%. chris christie has released a statement saying he had no role alignmentsizing lane -- they were accused of intentionally creating the chaos at the bridge over several days in september of 2013. the move was went to publish the democratic mayor of fort lee who had earlier refused to endorse governor christie's reelection bid. in a rambling speech, president
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outlined that he that -- he said there were people who want him removed. iraqi special forces have resumed their push into mosul. on tuesday, troops entered moseley for the first time in more than two years. for the firstul time in more than two years, backed by a us-led coalition. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. david: more on a story breaking this afternoon. one of the largest whole foods shareholders has met with potential activist investors. to discuss making sweeping changes to the grocery chain.
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for more, let's turn to craig giammona. what do we know about the shareholders's grievances? >> they have concerns with the management of the company. is taking control -- possible management changes. a possible sale. this is a chain that should be resonating with millennials. they are think about what is the problem? n effortsere's been a recor to resonate with millennials. craig: they have announced a total of 23 leases. they said we opened a couple and that we will launch
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365 2.0 next year. they are looking at how that's going and then we will see another one in austin coming in the spring and then a bunch more leases to come. people think there is hope for growth, but it's too early to tell. david: the management issue -- yesterday, the news broke that there would not be to ceos going forward. that's those co-ceos going two ceos going forward. craig: if you look at the numbers, this is a company that was posting double-digit increases year after year. they built the market for organic groceries in this country and now, they have hit this gives nbe skids. they are trying to cut costs.
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people want good deals, they want to feel like they are getting value. david: when you put them in the context of comparing them to kroger, comparing them to walmart, it is the smallest of the three companies. how does it fit in? place where i the could get grass fed beef, where i can find organic kale. there a huge market for that stuff. more and more americans are into the foodie culture. for a while, they had that unique offering. can get it, willing to pay the price -- john said there's good enough options. people are not making the trip and not willing to pay up. they have depended to find exactly where they fit in the market. a lot of people think prepared foods, and upscale experience
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that people still want fresh produce -- david: any sense of the timetable here? craig: it's pretty unclear at this point. there's been a sense that something might happen with them. there's been persistent rumors that kroger's going to buy them. there's discussion that maybe someday takes them private. fix it up and then maybe bring it back. to, more pressure on them get their house in order. david: craig giammona joining me in new york. affordability of obamacare has been a hot button topic on the campaign trail. donald trump winning out rising premiums that's pointing out rising premiums. outonald trump pointing rising premiums. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: the debate surrounding obamacare continues. some under the program are finding the medical care they need is too expensive to actual use. joining us with more is adam bierma zachary tracer. the frustration is what? price of what they have to pay out-of-pocket is too high? >> between 20 million people get insurance through the exchanges
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or through medicaid. having so little income to qualify for this government program. for the people making $25,000, $50,000 plus a year, the policies are pretty expensive, they have high deductibles. it is hard to get the care that they need. david: we are at a moment here in part because it's a campaign, another part of this is the projections we got a couple weeks back showing the premiums rising 25%. what accounts for the spiraling premiums? zachary: premiums are up 25%. the question is whether this is or is thiscorrection a sign that people are just ally sick and we will see more and more premiums spikes like this.
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paul krugman was with less yesterday -- was with us yesterday. have a listen to what he had to say. paul: it is not a fundamentally unworkable program. morely, we should have enforcement of the mandate. the should be a somewhat higher penalty for not signing up and fewer loopholes. and more subsidies. it would not cost a lot of money. david: if there is an element of intractability here, you've had republicans calling for the whole scale repeal of the law and democrats talking about modifying it somewhat -- is there a middle ground here? zachary: he's right command the mandate is strengthened, that would help repair obamacare and get more people into the pool. question, is there any political will at all to make people who are not buying
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insurance pay more money on their taxes? david: what has the rhetoric been like on the campaign trail? trump has been talking about this morse and that report came out from hhs. more since that report came out from hhs. agricole and hillary clinton has zachary: he -- called the law a starter home. upgrade your starter home, you get a better home. they have for increasing subsidies for folks who make higher amounts of money. so they can afford the health insurance. david: is that resonating with voters when there are polls -- do people still like it?
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zachary: voters are pretty split. as you might imagine, it's on party lines. republicans tend to hate it, democrats like it. when you ask about individual , those tend to be more popular. i think it will be a real interesting task to go into this , if we'regure out going to repeal it, what are we talking about? what can we strengthen, what are we going to do away with? there a new sense of urgency? i spoke with the ceo of aetna a while back. he said the new president will have nine months to figure this out. are we seeing more urgency now than we have in the past? zachary: we saw anthem this week -- if 2017is 17
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doesn't go well for us, we could pull out of some states. that could be a real big issue for obamacare if more and more insurers are pulling out. we've already seen some big insurers leave the market. david: thank you very much. issue is the legalization of marijuana. it is one of america's fastest-growing industries, projected to hit $22 billion in joining us now is adam bierman. let's play this out. if the legalization of marijuana continues, what does that mean for the marketplace? adam: i don't think it is if it continues, it's been in the works for 20 and 30 years now. you see all the momentum gearing
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.p for tuesday five states legalizing marijuana on the same day, it's not coming out of nowhere. that momentum has been gaining and ultimately, we are all working towards the end of prohibition. david: what was the tipping point? if you want to use tipping point, we can look at california on tuesday and really understand that as a tipping point from the commercial side of this industry. , youcalifornia legalizing have an $8 billion combined market that creates overnight. industry needs it to be institutionalized. that happens after california. there are no more excuses. thatreputational risk,
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reputational exposure gets denigrated to the extent that people can start planning. david: for a long time, it's been an interesting basis, this has been really difficult. you have different municipalities legalizing this but it is hard at the federal level. is that posing challenges? adam: absolutely. until we end prohibition, that will continue to be an issue. with the issue comes opportunity. , theyose opportunists will take advantage of that. at some point, this will be federally legal. it becomes easier to participate, which means there's less opportunity. we are at the inflection point now and tuesday is the transition from legacy industry to the future. david: i have family in colorado. it's astonishing to see how quickly this industry has grown.
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what have you learned from the way it has grown in those places? adam: it is an experiment. you can look at smaller western states that have had legal marijuana for some time that have legalized migration marijuana does recreational marijuana and it's proving to be successful. it is successful when it comes to everything going on from attacks -- children are not becoming drug addict. when you take smaller states like that, what we have learned from that is it is ok to continue forward. we talk about california, ,assachusetts, arizona, florida i do think it is a tipping point. we've been talking about american consumers' comf.
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ort -- comfort. what about investor comfort? there's a lot of people saying they want to participate as investors in the the first time. there is a group of investors that have been looking at the some amount of time. trying to get comfort around it, they understand the economic opportunities, commercial opportunities. based oney risk adjust the state the industry finds itself may legal perspective -- from a legal perspective? a conversationng with those people trying to penetrate the market or get some exposure in the market. now, that risk has gotten to a place where they can gain enough comfort to take advantage of what we believe to be really amazing risk-adjusted potential returns. david: what is the next step?
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there are some cohesion to the policy plan going forward. does the focus now shifts to the federal level? that is the plan. we will try to take as much of a lead-in that is possible. tuesday does a lot for that momentum with states that are significant enough from a thatation standpoint that hopefully gives us some momentum now to focus on the federal issue. forre already at a place 66% of americans live in a state where marijuana is legal in some or fashion next tuesday will increase that -- we have to end prohibition. i do think it is doable. it is there in the foreseeable future. adam biermans zachary trace joining us in new york.
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bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg markets." time now for the bloomberg business flash. whole foods largest stakeholders met with activist investors to discuss incorporating sweeping changes at the upscale grocer. on the tablenges include replacing management, even a possible sale of the company. shareholders are said to be concerned about the company's direction, citing poor vendor management and an inability to capture its appeal to
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millennials. opec's secretary-general officially denied a report today that saudi's plan to raise output if other countries do not agree to cuts, saying instead talks held in vienna last week with member nations were constructive. oil extended losses earlier today after that report. downald's plans to double on tech. they will increase investment in digital endeavors, including self-serve kiosks and a mobile ordering at. the tech push will focus on its 10 largest markets. by do looking to raise $500 million to beef up its food delivery unit. round has notg been finalized.
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that is your business flash update. steve ballmer says he and bill gates drifted apart. it was his decision to move into smartphones that soured their relationship. steve: we have drifted apart. he has his life, i have mine. microsoft was the thing that really bound us. we started off as friends and then really got matched around microsoft. since i've gone, we have drifted a bit. emily: you left suddenly. what really happened? steve: it was definitely not a simple thing for either one of us. , littlend of the day bit of a difference in opinion on the strategic direction of the company. which is a challenge.
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number two, he and i had always relationship the good parts and the bad parts. towards the end, that was a bit more difficult. price is not going anywhere, so the rest of the board felt pressure, despite the fact that profits were going up. you had a combustible situation. does it ever bother you that you don't get credit for that? steve: i have the comfort of knowing what i did and feeling good about myself. emily: where did you want to take the company? steve: there was a fundamental disagreement about how important it was to be in the hardware business. things came to a climax around what to do about the phone
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business. david: that was steve ballmer with emily chang. you can watch the full interview this sunday on studio 1.0 at .oon eastern, 9:00 a.m. pacific michael mckee sits down with the president and ceo of the federal reserve bank of dallas. robert kaplanwith at three clock p.m. wall street time -- three clock p.m. wall street time. megan murphy and i will anchor bloomberg's special coverage of the presidential election. hillary clinton campaigning in pittsburgh this hour. the jobs report showed the economy is poised to take off. donald trump just said today's numbers are an absolute disaster. both candidates on the trail heading up to tuesday. president obama joining them on
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the campaign trail this weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i know there's nothing we can't achieve. ♪
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scarlet: it is 2:00 p.m. in new york and 6:00 p.m. in london. welcome to "bloomberg markets."
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we are covering stories out of los angeles, washington, paris .nd seoul we just accelerate in october. figures likely to keep the federal reserve on track to raise rates in december. the u.s. presidential race heads into its final weekend. donald trump showing signs of strength in iowa and ohio while hillary clinton's advantage is in north carolina and nevada. on whatpeak to ed hyman the election means for global markets. the u.s. stock market closes in two hours. julie hyman is with us for the latest. -- eight-day losing streak julie: it is now over. a snapping of the eight session losing streak that was the longest since 2008 for the s&p 500. playing a role
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in that, wage growth year over fastest pace in seven years. the u.s. election is still looming over sentiment to some extent. stocks holding on to gains. in terms of the groups on the move, health care is snapping back from yesterday's declines after that bloomberg news story that the justice department was readying charges by the end of the year to make several generic drug markers of price collusion. .t was down yesterday today, up by 1.4%. industrials and real estate also seeing some gains. consumer staples the only group in the red right now. in terms of summer earnings nrg energy the second-largest power producer in the u.s. reported earnings that beat estimates and raised its profit guidance for the full year.
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third-quarter profit beat was driven by retail sales and renewable energy generation. earnings also beating estimates. the company set a strength in its healthcare services businesses did its division well for 2017. and regeneron came out with earnings that beat estimates as well on the strength of its retinal disease drug. a few of the stocks doing well today. we've had developing and breaking news stories happening during the course of the session. whole foods market has pared its earlier gains but spiked after the bloomberg news story that one of its largest shareholders was meeting with activist to potentially push for some changes. alere falling after it said its diabetes division was removed from medicare coverage.
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shares down 13%. initially spiked, but then fell back after the company said it was delaying its 10-q filing. ,ircling back to the election we are watching the mexican peso once again as the proxy for what's going on with the election. seeingo is rising today, the u.s. dollar falling against the peso by 1%. optimism among more of a hillary clinton victory on tuesday. let's get a check on the first word news this afternoon. mark crumpton has that. mark: donald trump is trying to make inroads in new hampshire. he was inday,
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atkinson and tried to make the case that the latest unemployment report shows the u.s. economy is in bad shape. report thate jobs just came out shows the number of people not in the workforce increased by another 425,000 people last month. that's why you see these phony numbers about 5% unemployed -- people are not looking for work anymore because they cannot get a job. these numbers are an absolute disaster. votesonly four electoral are up for grabs in new hampshire by the state is also home to a hotly contested u.s. senate race. the fbi and new york police investigating the possibility of an al qaeda attack the night before election day. officials say they are reviewing york andon listing new virginia as potential targets. , the president
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says she will cooperate with prosecutors investigating an influence peddling scandal. her approval rating is now at a record low 5%. french police evacuated thousands of migrants from an illegal camp in the northeast part of paris. inpolice and city officials paris removing 3000 migrants sidewalks turned into makeshift camps. they will be taken to makeshift shelters. mark: global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: as the u.s. presidential race heads into its final weekend, u.s. stocks holding their longest losing
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streak since the 2008 financial crisis. daysin over the past nine that the s&p 500 over the last nine days. of pointsy the number hillary clinton's lead has shrunk as well. for more on his call, ever court chairman edevercore hyman. advisorrump's economic says it doesn't make sense to blame that decline in u.s. stocks on donald trump. let's put up his quote, exactly. he said it doesn't make that much sense. we had a small decline in equities, they want to blame that on donald trump, that
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doesn't make sense. ed: we don't know. the best roadmap we can have short term is the brexit -- on the day before brexit, a surprise vote, the ftse went up 1%. the two days after that, it went down 6%. it went up 8% in the three days after that. roadmap.y i think the odds of trump winning are not as high as the brexit vote. if trump does win, i would guess you get a 6% drop and then people take stock of whether or not david is right or not. clarify what investors
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are trying to price in when they assess a trump presidency. we will have lower taxes, more fiscal spending, new trade deals -- what else are they trying to factor in? ed: the main thing is the uncertainty. that is pretty clear, people are scared about protection sentiments. it's not clear to me what donald trump really has in mind. you mentioned redoing trade agreements. not doing away with trade agreements. that is the main thing people are worried about in a very intense way. investors are convinced that clinton will be the next president. they themselves are actually split on who they would vote for. why is there that dichotomy? ed: what people think is going to happen versus what they are going to do with their voting -- the odds are pretty close.
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thple can have a view that e odds are 90% that clinton is going to win. at this point, that's the way it looks. scarlet: the odds of a recession are fairly low as well. there a few people looking for that to happen in the near term. what has changed from the start of the year when there was a lot of discussion about a possible recession? ed: at the start of the year, it looked like the world was coming to an end. earnings were down a ton. a lot has changed. people generally have a view that the next recession as a couple years out. which i agree with. at the moment, it's not really relevant. we are just trying to get through the election and see how
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2017 looks. scarlet: what's the biggest risk? ed: the biggest risk to the market right now is the fed tightens them of the dollar $20 andoil goes back to we get in that negative feedback loop. scarlet: we will be importing some volatility from the emerging markets. ed: the rig count has come back a ton. it's increased for five months rate --annual scarlet: we have u.s. wage accelerating, the expansionary that all oficies that is the foundation, yet the u.s. election drama has obscured improving data. ed: one of the things we do is a employmenty week --
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this week is still very strong. lasttle stronger than thi week and wages are still getting stronger. this is average hourly earnings released in today's jobs report. up 2.8% year on year. in thee pointed out that past, we headed towards that 4% mark. up,in the past, when you go you end at 4% in three years. my guess is that by early next year, we will be about 3%, which will put pressure on the fence to tighten. -- on the fed to tighten. scarlet: china was a big source of concern earlier this year. it doesn't worry global investors the way it did in the past. is that because we are familiar with the potential sources of risk that are out there?
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there are three things that have changed -- the company reports are pretty strong. their ppi stopped declining. their nominal gdp has come from to 8.7% in the fourth quarter. it will be almost 9%, almost a 300 basis point acceleration. ed hyman, evercoreia isi's chairman. us ond el-erian speaks to the latest jobs report and what the fed will do when it comes to rates next month. .his is bloomberg
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scarlet: this is bloomberg wage gains among the big standouts in this morning's jobs report for the month of october. average hourly earnings rose 10%. the year-over-year increase was 2.8% compared with 2.7% in september. earlier today, we spoke with mohamed el-erian about the argument that year-over-year wage gains would not provide much structural change. mohamed: what it tells you is there is less slack in the economy in the labor market. that's fine if it weren't for the fact that the employment to
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population ratio is below 60%. that is a multi-decade low in terms of where we are. yes, it tells you on the wage front that things are fine, but there is less slack. if we stay at this low level of employment to population, there will be less people powering this economy forward in the future. you said it will be a matter of time before those cases the participation rate has higher. which way are you heading? you going for both heading higher or the structural side? mark: my hope is both will head higher. mohamed: my worry and my expectation is that wages will continue to go up. the participation rate will disappoint. that will simply emphasize that we have structural headwinds and that we need a policy response
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that goes well beyond relying just on central banks. paul krugman spoke to us yesterday and said the fed doesn't know what is coming down the road. it should not be raising rates in december. do you have any sympathies with that view? mohamed: i have sympathies with the view that we are facing unusual uncertainty. i have sympathy with that view. i have a lot of sympathy with that the fed should not move , these at some point collateral damage and unintended consequences of unconventional measures outweigh the benefit we have gotten to that point. report unemployment tells you that absent a major shock to the market, the domestic indicators for the fed suggest they should hike in december. carol: and then what?
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is the economy going to see some real inflation at that point? mohamed: we will see a pickup in inflation. it will not be something we will worry about excessively. we will continue to see a pickup -- what we should worry about is the extent to which markets have been disconnected from fundamentals because of reliance on central banks. whether by hiking the fed signals it is less willing to support the markets. the issue is can the market continued to do relatively ok without the support of central banks and here, i have my doubts. vonnie: what about the bank of japan? why should market participants feel like it would? mohamed: the economic signals suggest the fed should get out of being hyper stimulative.
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within the central bank, there is more concern today about the threats to future financial stability. the fact that you encourage risk-taking in central banks and that could be a headwind to the economy in the future. that's two reasons why one has to because it's about this notion that the fed will be our bff. i'm not sure the fed will be. mark: the essence of your argument is the central banks have repressed financial volatility. if volatility rises and the fed starts to normalize policy in a smooth and gradual way and the boj has its hands tied behind its back, volatility will rise. does that hamstring the world major central banks?
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mohamed: the central banks are increasingly in a very, very tough position. it's not because it is their fault. they simply made the wrong bet in terms of how other policymakers would respond. they were building a bridge. hope was that the politicians would deliver the destination by enabling a comprehensive policy response. what central banks have found out is this bridge keeps on going and going and the destination is elusive as it has been from the beginning. scarlet: that was mohamed el-erian. still ahead, is options insight that nvidia shares up 100% isr-to-date -- this bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets."
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time for options insight with julie hyman. julie: joining me today is david bartosiak. he is out at the cboe in chicago. mention, niceto tie, congratulations -- david: a very emotional week for me. julie: apparently a very emotional week in the markets, too. one of the tribes i've been looking at is the vix versus the s&p 500 realized volatility. that's one of the charts i've been looking at. isthat measure, volatility the most expensive it's been going back to august of 2015. getting toois it expensive for people finally after this huge run-up in volatility? david: i think what we had
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everybody basically baked in a hillary clinton win in the election and when the fbi probe came out, everybody started to freak out. we had to price in some risk and everybody rushed over to hedge their bets. a ton of money started going into things like the vix and we have this huge spike going to over 23. today, that streak has been broken. it did not take 108 years. that streak of volatility has been broken and it started to come down and the market is rallying a bit here as well. i'm curious what you think that happen next wednesday given all the various potential outcomes for the election. david: i'm expecting the unexpected on wednesday. everybody believes we might
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desperate you get a hillary win, you get a huge relief rally. i'm expecting to see a bit more volatility throughout the end of next week. maybe things can return to normalcy a bit once we have a clear-cut picture. julie: let's get a smaller picture -- nvidia reporting earnings on november 10. you are talking about shorting a call spread here. david: i've been very bullish on nvidia for a long time. the stock has run from 24 to $67 a share. i want to sell into the optimism. i'm selling the 77 call spread, -- i'm $.45 in my pocket giving it a cushion to run a little bit more but i feel like a lot of the good news has already been priced in. i don't know how much of a bump we will get from the q3 report. , thankdavid bartosiak
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you so much. congrats. david: still ahead, the commodities close. scarlet: nymex oil tumbling 10% this week. opec members struggle to finalize plans to cut their production. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scott: this is bloomberg markets. commodity markets are closing in new york. let's head to julie hyman.
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of the day andy week is the day and week has been oil. oil prices pulling back but oil has been buffeted by different headlines. saudi arabia was threatening to raise production if other opec members did not agree to cut production. that send oil to the lows of the day. then back up after opec secretary-general said saudi arabia did not make that threat and it dissolved lower again. a lot of doubt about whether there will be opec reduction agreement. and if you look at the weekly move in oil prices, you have a decline of 9.5%, the worst weekly performance since january. not only did you have these opec concerns, you had a record build in weekly inventory in the u.s. of 14.4 million barrels. then to add insult to injury, if you look at the october figures for how much opec pumped in terms of its daily production,
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32 point million barrels a day in october. that would be a continued record. this looks at the five-year chart at those barrels per day, the record pace that opec production is now at. we also got at 1 p.m. the weekly oil rig index. showing how many rigs are in effect, it is the ninth increase in the past 10 weeks. the backdrop for oil definitely is not bullish at the moment. scarlet: thank you. let's get your check off the headlines. mark crumpton has that. mark: hillary clinton is praising the latest employment report. at a campaign rally clinton said the numbers are showing a jobless rate of -- that point to an economy on the rise. createdton: our economy 161,000 jobs last month. 73 straight months of
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job growth. that our economy is poised to take off and thrive. shown clintonve with a steady beat over donald trump in pennsylvania where 2002 oh votes are at stake. the jury found to former allies of chris christie guilty of plotting traffic jams in the name of the -- political retaliation. on allre convicted counts and accused of intentionally creating the chaos at the george washington bridge over several days on september 2013. the move was made to punish the democratic mayor of four lee who had refused to endorse his reelection bid. the governor has denied any knowledge, a claim contradicted
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by multiple witnesses. a car bomb attack has killed eight people and wounded more than 100 others. two of those killed were police officers. the attack took place in an area where the majority of people were kurds had been demanding their independence from turkey. it has been 108 years in the making. the city of chicago today is honoring the world syria's -- world series champion cubs. the party began wednesday night when the cubs defeated the cleveland indians 8-7 in one of the muster medic game sevens in world cyst -- world series history. the celebration continued with the rally in grant park. the chicago river which is dyed green on st. patrick's day today was dyed a bright shade of blue to match the cubs' colors. day,l news 24 hours a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
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scarlet: thank you. another year of low rates and low growth complicate investors--- investors' search for yields. looked fully or overvalued. my next guest is the ceo of --ss and it -- asset manager it used to be hedge funds and private equity but what does that world encompass today? guess: it is a mix of different strategies. it goes from -- which is boosting returns which is hedge funds and provides some .rotection or private debt
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scarlet: i wonder that strategy encompasses physical assets. we have a great story about how some pension funds are buying buildings in amsterdam that least space out to six shops in that city or funds that are investing in british ingle halls. guess: it is a trend that is strong in europe. they are investing dragway in infrastructure project. there is a trend of investing in infrastructure to get some .eturn and some yield scarlet: what are the cost of doing that is taking that approach? guest: i would say that sometimes there is a tendency to complicate dealing with a long-term project. we will see if it has been estimated by the pension fund. expect tohey did not be project managers. pension funds and companies
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sponsored tire -- retirement plans have not buy into the idea of alternative investment yet. it has gained traction but fairly small. how much headway do you think is being made there? guest: there are some project which is being done. lately with bonds, coming from additional assets and a 6740 portfolio. necessarily perform as they used to do in the past. finduestion is can you opportunities for investment which permits them to have a net return. scarlet: what is the opportunity they have seen? guest: the search on the idea that there are some factors in the market which brings a
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premium. it is a bit like dna sequencing in medicine. has shown that some of the hedge fund manager returns were [inaudible] is an opportunity to invest in a much more liquid way. it is a new trend in alternatives that will be there for the future which will permit clients [inaudible] scarlet: liquidity is a concern. you can cash out quickly and with all the political risks out there, that is something everyone wants the ability to do. guest: you want to have liquidity because liquidity has a premium on the long-term.
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an insurance company has a long-term horizon. better to cash this. if you want to play momentum strategy or long short equity strategy, you don't necessarily need to be locked in a fund for one month or three-month. scarlet: is this -- is cash and asset class or strategy? caches a liability. ultimateay caches the portfolio contraction. it is not in a servant so you have to find substitutes in everything that gives a sort of you can be yesterday. scarlet: lack rock estimates there is fine billion dollars of cash held by investors. is that a bullish sign? guest: people are hanging onto cash because nothing is very
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cheap today. neither private equity neither bonds. it is tough to invest there is a tendency to invest because you cannot cover liability. the thing is quite risky today. scarlet: thank you so much. johnny us here in new york today. coming up, there are three days left until we know who our next president will be. what would a trump loss mean for the pelican party? we will break that down. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: this is bloomberg markets.
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time for the debt -- bloomberg is this flash, a look at the business stories in the news. a major whole foods they colder has met with activist investors to discuss sweeping changes at the upscale grocer. this a potential changes include new management and even a possible sale area the unidentified shareholder is said to be concerned about vendor management and capitalizing on the grocer's appeal to millennials. british airways parents iag is reviewing outstanding orders. they are keeping older planes longer and adding more seats to others to cut spending. they say overcapacity and the brexit vote could weigh on earnings. in the airline says it is seeking voluntary departures. hong kong is taking steps to cool off the world's highest home prices. the government raising the tax at all residential purchases except for first-time buyers or permanent residents. home prices are up 13%.
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a short-term dip ended back in march. businesshe bloomberg flash. we will be right back with more on politics update. this is bloomberg
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scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. we want to turn now to politics because we are -- have three days left to go. donald trump is beginning to close in on hillary clinton in the latest polls but hillary is favorite to win and if that does happen republican leaders could face heavy backlash from failing to endorse trump as much as a traditional candidate. with something the party could be on the brink of the civil war. our politicsw is reporter. what are we hearing on this front? be reliant on these trump voters. the overwhelming majority are supporting trump, they have endorsed him and they need to
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court the same voters and need the same voters to check the box if they are going to win. republican leaders are in a tight box because trump does not represent a lot of what they represent. speaker paul ryan and mitch mcconnell are more pro-trade, at least in the case of paul ryan, pro-immigration. he does not quite represent their views. they have not always been terribly comfortable with trump but they have been supporting him. they are facing some disgruntled voters in the base who are upset they have not supported trump more enthusiastically. they are trying to tap had done -- temp that down. republican congressman trent franks told this that if trump loses narrowly there will be held to pay. for not being more enthusiastic. that is what they're contending with.
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scarlet: is there any of that second-guessing in the demo right camp? >> the democrats have been more united as a party. bernie sanders got behind hillary clinton global before the convention and during the convention. that camped down the discord that did exist around the to the convention. we're not seeing anything like that on the socratic side. no one is defecting from hillary clinton. scarlet: what can you tell us about early voting and how it compares to what we saw in 2012 especially in the swing states where the lead seems to change it by day -- day by day? asked all has been leading in narrowly. he needs the two states to win. if he can win this two states he makes progress toward getting the 270 needs.
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on the bright side for hillary clinton, nevada is looking good for her. her numbers are looking similar to president obama's numbers in 2012 when he won the state by five or six points and nevada has a huge early vote tally usually. similaraying a advantage that the president did so that is something good for her. one big bright side is the history -- hispanic quote seems to be up and there are a lot of hispanic voters in florida. there going for by a big margin. lowerocrats are saying african-american turnout in 2012, that could be a problem with that number moves to a for them. scarlet: we have come to expect the unexpected when it comes to this campaign. how are each side bracing for potential big news whether it is clinton's camp with more wikileaks data dumps or document dumps or the trump side with perhaps more disclosures of accusations from other women?
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>> everyone is on a knife's edge. the races been tightening. they're both planning on having their election night parties in manhattan. they are not to our knowledge , any new anything shockers in the last four days areas they are making a closing argument. doubt trump is sticking to teleprompter. he is going to try not to be the story in these final few days and keep the focus on hillary clinton. she is trying to keep the focus on him and his temperament and argue he is not fit to hold the nuclear codes area and: joining us from washington, thank you. walk the talk where we look at the pressure points of social change red has outpaced corporate america's ability to adapt. with again hollywood and its efforts to diversify. a new series centers on the times and attitudes of a 1959 magazine newsroom, several women
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voicing dissent's faction gender pay discrepancies and opportunities. i spoke with the show's executive producer on the series and what it means to the women's movement then and now. >> what is so interesting about the timing of the release of the series is it turns out some of the behavior that the women went through in 1969 is not quite as absolute we would have hoped as we see in the billy bush tape the locker room talk. it is a different -- discord has begun now. we have not gone quite as far as we had hoped. have you learned about millennial women and this older generation of women from producing the series? thee learned that millennial women and even more so the younger women are quite active and interested in their
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rights as women. they realize that we fought for worsen rights and we still do not have them, the roots are -- rights are being eroded. we still did not have equal pay. and where still fighting for the possibility of the glass ceiling being broken in all areas the workplace. it is to get a woman president elected. i have seen a tremendous a lot -- amount of activism on the part of the anger women because of making the country. scarlet: i wonder if any of the women from that new generation talk you can say they may have dropped the ball and not taking these issues where is equal pay, promotion to fruition, did they hanging ageneration
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little bit? >> i would say there was a bit thatbacklash against generation for a while. the word feminism was kind of a key, he reminded people or made people think about women who did not shave their arms or wore -- were not attracted to men. one of the reasons we want to make this series is defined how fun and sexy and wonderful getting together with your when peers and fighting for something as that early feminism was it was about men, living men. women mature as many changes as -- they made as many changes. i am certain that i could not , three years ago, five years ago and i could not have made a movie.
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projects fewer female are getting made in movies. my bread and butter was romantic comedies and they are super hard to get made now. one of the things we saw about premium cable and venues like amazon and they reset the present that are loud and have discourse with the culture. i do not -- necessarily have to appeal to teenage boys. they can have attained for private and does not have to appeal to teenage boys. it does not have to appeal to the broadest possible audience. it can appeal to the deepest possible audience and that is how i see good goals revolve -- good girls revolt. the finance is passionate and deep. it is thrilling to me to be able to work with a venue like amazon. scarlet: glastonbury we had the oscars that caused a lot of
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pushback from people. tore has been efforts diversify hollywood. do you think those efforts are working, what has changed? --one of the great thing things is how reactive it is. it is kind of dutifully reactive . it is the most major business in the world. in one year, after being sued by having noecause of women directors, when we were encouraged by amazon and blue were al woman team so we went to hire all women dressers. when we started to hire call the women weres -- unavailable. all the projects were being green light. the academy and industry was being encouraging. you will see this year at the oscars more diversity pictures being nominated than ever before. really fast reaction to
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something that was a very grave problem. nextet: what is the diversity story hollywood should tell? i know you're always thinking ahead to next project. >> i try not to chase the news. deep to do things that are inside my own soul and my own wheelhouse and this story about 1969, i have family there ever since. who is aournalist beneficiary of these women who fought so hard for these rights. chasing a diversity project when i began this. i was chasing my heart. you do something great is not because you're , is because knee you love someone. they were made out of the love not that film maker, because they were reactions.
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that is the same thing with good girls revolt. scarlet: that was the executive producer of good goals -- good girls revolt greatly go live to mexico city. michael mckee will sit down with robert kaplan for an exclusive and wide ranging conversation at 3:10 p.m. the dow is little changed after climbing as much as 56 points. the jobs report did inspire some gains initially but that seems to have dissipated. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: welcome to bloomberg markets.
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from bloomberg world headquarters for the next hour to my covering stories and mexico city, washington and basel. millions have gone back to work and they are getting some decent pay raises. 's will hear bill gross reaction to the jobs report. we hear from steve ballmer on his move from the boardroom to the basketball court as the current owner of the los angeles clippers. we had lived to mexico city were michael mckee will be sitting down with robert kaplan. we are one hour from the close of trading and julie hyman is here tracking the loss of momentum in u.s. stocks you the dow little changed right now. julie: the hours up 10 points. butas not getting that much it was more positive and overall, we are seeing stocks rollover a little bit. we have an eight session decline aing into today so not quite
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danger necessarily of going negative at this point but something to watch as we get here into the final session of trading. it has been a negative week. whatever happens today, the s&p 500 down 1.5%, the second straight weekly decline we have seen even with the little bit of a bounce that has been happening in today's session. what has led us there? everything in a word. if you look at the bloomberg search the broader s&p index and break it into industry groups, you see all of them have traded lower. utilities and materials have fallen the least but everything is down, technology has been leading declines. energy tracking losses. and most of the groups are down more than one per seat -- 1% as we have had concern about the outcome of the election.
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on an individual basis the stocks that have contrary did the most to declines include facebook which is having its biggest weekly decline in over a year, down 8%, apple pulling back down 4% and pfizer is well. inhave seen some weakness the drugmakers and pfizer had reported its earnings so it is down 6%. as we see the decline we have seen a big increase in the volatility index, above 21 once again. same trepidation that has come back into the market. the u.s. dollar is well, we have been watching it this week. it has not been an area of safety, not versus a basket of currencies. it is down 1% and has had a losing streak much like stocks. interesting that this risk aversion has extended to the u.s. currency as well.
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scarlet: you are comparing it to emerging markets, that is when the dollar is doing better. julie hyman with the latest. let's get you to mark crumpton. mark: president obama is building on the legacy of leniency with scheduled early releases for 72 more federal prisoners. the way has his many have been jailed on drug and weapons charges with more than dozen -- a dozen serving life sentences bringing the total of committed life sentences to 944, the most under any u.s. president. paul ryan says he will seek reelection as house speaker if the gop maintains control of the chamber. ryan denied a report in the hill newspaper he is no longer interested in -- in the job and dismissed talk of a divide among republicans. aboutthere is speculation a challenge from house conservatives who are frustrated backed donaldnot trump more forcefully. iraqi special forces are pushing
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into the city of mozilla -- of mosul. entered mosul for the first time in two years. president park's approval rating has plunged in recent weeks and is at a record low 5%. she admitted sharing government documents with a close friend who his since been arrested. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. u.s. and a jobs in the unemployment rate fell below 5%. shortly after the u.s. labor department data was released we
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got more from bill gross. why he continues to counsel caution even in light of a you -- of a decent u.s. jobs report. >> and zeroed in on two important factors. that is higher than average and earnings, they are growing more than normal as well. you combine those and that is good for the consumer going forward. i counsel caution on the basis of structural changes, on the basis of a recent report by the overal reserve itself done and the 12 month time negative influence on growth over the last several decades and the potential for it to continue to be negative. i focused on structural items such as high debt and leverage and technology displacement of jobs over the longer-term basis. a 1.5 -- 1.5% in
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real growth mode. which is anmarkets important consideration. grow at do not really 1.5%.han one point -- gdp has averaged 1.5% and we have had an earnings recession mild as it is. markets had better look to real growth as opposed to unemployment and employment which janet yellen tends to do for inaccurate forecast as to where asset prices are headed. a fewgot the gdp numbers days ago, the headline number of 2.9%. -- howes that say, what does that influence the fed's path forward?
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>> they are not necessarily sensitive to gdp. the fed is not necessarily's -- not necessarily focused on a, they focus on inflation. i think that is financial markets, should we get a shock in terms of that election, should we get an ultimate realization that the major equity markets are being held up due to the magic of central banks and quantitative easing. if market start to decline we will back off. -- which is what i 10,rienced over the past 20, and 30 years. >> you made the analogy of central bankers to gamblers. seen here in the
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intervening couple of weeks, do you see central bankers taking stock, reevaluating, becoming interest active, there have been all of these policy reviews, are central bankers thinking about or excepting the limits to what they are doing? >> to some extent. the ultimate question is what is the policy rate not just for the real economy and the reflection of asset prices but for savers. i think an increasing number of fed members and other spokesmen and women for other central banks are coming over to the side gradually. we have seen two or three dissents in terms of the fed statement. they're coming over to the side of savers and return on savers. t-rex who are you going to support for president? it is four days to go here, mr.
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gross, and i look at the job economy, do you have a preferred candidate who can give us less bill gross financial repression? chris i do not. trump has minorly attacked the fed. i am not sure what would happen if he became president, whether janet yellen would be asked to leave or not. it does not speak to financial repression and the fact that interest rates may move higher and remove some of that repression. hillary is a status quote type of candidate and the financial repression that has existed for seven or eight years now in terms of low interest rates .ould be part of a mantra she is not really spoken to that. >> you know it is a raging debate, doing need to pull ourselves away from this
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experiment of negative rates, do we maintain it into next year, what would be your counsel to global leaders? >> we need to pull away. i think it is an experiment to raise interest rates and a time in which inflation is quiescent. subjectively, as i have spoken for the last year or two and , negative interest rate have an influence on the real economy. it is not always positive, not always trickle-down. to the extent that bank interest rate margins are narrowed and profits in that sector are not doing well and to the extent that pensions and 401(k)s and insurance companies are heard by negative and narrow interest-rate margins, that affects the real economy and it
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has for the last year or so. scarlet: that was bill gross. wide to pull your attention to the site they u.s. stocks that been losing momentum here. we mentioned how they were little changed, the dow has fallen into the red, the s&p 500 still clinging onto a gain of less than one point. at how the a look industry groups within the s&p 500 are faring, health care, real estate are still the best performers, consumer staples and financials are lower of those should be said that of the five groups that are down, none of them are down by more than 1%. the losses are still not extreme by any stretch of the imagination. it falls on the heels of the s&p 500 falling for eight straight days, the longest losing streak since 2008. we will continue to move -- monitor that move. we sit down with robert kaplan for an exclusive conversation. he will be speaking about the economy, the elections, and much more.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: let's go to mexico city where mike mckee is standing by for an exclusive interview with robert kaplan. mike: thank you. for joining us here in mexico city. i want to take you back to washington to start interview and ask you about today's jobs report. the fed said wednesday, it is waiting for some more evidence before raising interest rates. did you get it today? robert: the averages are in the
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one 70's if you include this number in the september revision, very consistent. this is to be progress toward removing some of that labor market slack and moving toward full employment. fiction got a strong gain in wages, 2.8%. are you confirm -- convinced that we have absorbed enough generateck to inflation? robert: when you have this type of weight growth you would genee inflation? -- you would find its way into prices. one of the secular trends that is going on is technology enabled disruption. it is harder for businesses to pass on cost increases in the form of prices. businesses have less pricing power. i will be interested to see how much of this wage increase finds its way into prices. it will probably be more muted than we are historically accustomed to. the market is looking at these numbers and saying the fed will raise rates.
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you did not put enough hand but is there any reason to think that is not going to happen? robert: i usually do not speculate on any individual -- we're at the point where we should be able to remove some of the accommodation. this is in the context of a very path, much more gradual and shallow than we have experienced. we are at the point where we should be removing some amount of accommodation but i think the path after that, future removals, accommodation will be gradual and we can afford to be patient. my: when you look at the market reaction, there is enough priced tapert you will not get a tantrum? robert: that is hard to judge. i watch the market how abilities, if we were to move in the near future of the market,
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there seems to be some significant expectation. i do not think that should drive her actions. -- drive our actions. that is the basis on which and we should remove some amount of accommodation. my: the dot plot put together at the last meeting suggested that consensus in the fed is for to rate increases in 2017. you are going to be a voter. of the your. for the end year? -- i do not comment on number of increases or timing. i think the dot plot was consistent what i -- with what i think is appropriate which is a very gradual patient path of rate increases. that is what people listening to us should take from what the fed is saying and what i am saying is there a think the future path rates can be gradual.
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increases, eight meetings, they could be a lengthy time between them. what is it that you'll be looking for that he was -- that is telling you it is time to take the next step? robert: the other thing i'm looking at as we have talked before, there are three or four big secular trends that are creating headwinds for the demographics, globalization, particularly excess capacity and high levels of debt in china, high levels of government debt generally which is impeding fiscal policy and the last one is technology enabled disruption which is putting some downward pressure on pricing power and i think making it harder for business .eaders to spend on capex i will be working hard to understand how those forces are affecting perspective gdp growth and then how that leads to changes in inflation.
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think happensyou with growth and inflation, do we see a pickup in growth and we 2% andlation get to beyond? robert: the gdp growth without other government action, either structural reforms, infrastructure spending, fiscal policy, i think that prospect for future gdp growth is pretty muted. we are growing in the neighborhood of potential gdp growth while it is sluggish and disappointing, i do not see prospect for it taking up. the question is what is going to happen with inflation and this is why we would be wise to remove some amount of accommodation and assess the impact of that. we want to keep a close eye on significantly overshooting unemployment and the impact on inflation. i believe that we can afford to
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be patient and gradual and cautious because of these headwinds that i talked about earlier. my: what do you think of the idea of a high-pressure economy as a theoretical idea, letting inflation overshoot for a little while, are you willing to do that? robert: i would put it differently. i would say that i think we can afford to be patient. i do not see the economy running away from us because of these secular forces. and we have tore is easier to tighten vendee's. i think we should be patient. i do not know if we should let the economy run too hot that i think in terms of the balance of the risk, we can afford to be patient. even within that, i think it is wise to remove some amount of accommodation because of the distortions that rates this low
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at a high level of accommodation create in terms of impact on allocation,ve business decisions, and saw those in balances and distortions can be tough to unwind and are easier to recognize in hindsight. some movement -- toward accommodation is healthy. my: did the presidential election, been the fed discussions at all? robert: i think as others around the table have said and i will say the same thing, we work very hard to remove political considerations from our decision-making. the one context where think it is appropriate to consider political considerations if they affect underlying economic conditions. while there is debate around the table, our decisions are driven first and foremost by economic conditions and we tried very hard to screen out political considerations. mike: one of the candidates has severely criticized the fed as a
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tool of a clerical party. you think the fed has lost some credibility with the american people? robert: i may be a good one to ask because i have been on the fomc and a the fed for 14 months so i have some ability to be objective coming in from the outside. i do not see political myself, myaffecting analysis but i do not see any hint of it affecting the analysis of other people sitting around the fomc table. i think our decisions to the extent humanly possible are ,bout economic conditions appropriate monetary policy, a number of these other forces going on globally and anything i have seen suggests that political considerations are screened out and they are not a factor in my decision making and the decision-making i have observed from others. about you worry interference in the fed's
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political independence in the next coming years? robert: one of the great strengths of this country and the last 10 years have been a good example of it, one of the great strengths is an independent central bank. it is very critical that the federal reserve remain independent and have the ability to act without regard to political considerations or political pressures and do research on economic conditions and make decisions that are based on those economic conditions. it is essential in this country and one of the keys that has helped make the u.s. successful over the last number of decades so it is important we preserve that. mike: you talk about paying inention to politics only terms of impact. they are worried about the u.s. presidential election here. have you talked to your --nterparts here as the should people be worried about what might happen economically
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between the two countries? robert: i came down to visit with the central bank and met with other leaders in the country and met with business leaders and there is a significant amount of uncertainty here and you see it reflected in the currency. my main objective in being here .s to build our relationship mexico is a very important relationship but it is critical to the district i represent. largest exporting state in the u.s., mexico is our number one trading partner. everything that i am doing is trying to understand our relationship, held our relationship and we plan to continue to do that in the months and years ahead because it is in the best interest of the district and of the united states. study the economy and trade, can you say that the north american free-trade agreement has been a good thing? robert: i will stay away from commenting on any particular
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trade agreement, i do not think it is appropriate for me to do that. i would say this. we do a substantial amount of economic research at the dallas fed on trade in what our research shows me and shows us --that trade with mexico is has improved u.s. competitiveness. it may surprise people to know of the imports from mexico, 40% of the content is u.s. content. you have these trade partnerships cross-border and what has happened is because of these partnerships, we are able to be more competitive and if we did not have this partnership, it is very likely that those jobs in the u.s. would be lost to asia or other parts of the world. the research has indicated to me that it has been a critical part of competitiveness not only for taxes but the u.s. mike: we wilson it back from
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mexico city to you. scarlet: thank you. we have more insight on the jobs report and the fed's next move. the chief u.s. economist at j.p. morgan will be joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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private wifi for your business. strong and secure. good for a door. and a network. comcast business. built for security. built for business. job: it was a tale of two reports on the campaign trail today. republican presidential nominee donald trump in new hampshire try to make the case that the latest employment report shows
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the u.s. economy is in bad shape for you -- and bad shape. mr. trump: it shows the number of people not in the workforce increased by 100 5000 people. that is where you see these phony numbers about 5% unemployed. people are not looking for work anymore because they cannot get a job. they take them off the rolls. these numbers are an absolute disaster. mark: hillary clinton campaigning in pittsburgh offered another take on the report which showed the nation's unemployment rate falling to 4.9%. ms. clinton: we got some good news this morning. our economy rated 161,000 jobs last month. is 73 straight months of and i believea that our economy is poised to

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