tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg November 7, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EST
>> the mexican currency strengthens with asian equities as the fbi clears clinton over e-mails again. we have the latest from the united states ahead of tomorrow's big vote. talking trade. theresa may arising india to lay the groundwork for a post-brexit deal. and a beat for europe's biggest bank. hsbc tops estimates as it benefits from cost-cutting. ♪
a very warm welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" from london. i'm anna edwards alongside yousef gamal el-din. we're joined by guy johnson joining us from new york ahead of the big vote tomorrow. you are tracking the twists and turns that link this story with the fbi. trying to understand whether or not it has come too late in the day or the damage was done when the fbi came out and said it was re-investigating clinton. the markets have moved significantly. you talk about the pace of moving this morning. is it going to unwind losses? anna: thank you very much. plenty more with guy as we go through this morning. yousef, you have numbers from ryanair. yousef: let's get you through these. , 1.0 2quarter pretax billion euros.
second, total operating expenses, 1.4 billion. operating revenue for the second quarter from continuing operations at 2.44 billion euros. that is according to the cfo. they planned 550 million euros in a share buyback through february 2017. to put a line under it, second-quarter net income, 912 million euros. bloomberg intelligence said there would be pressure on low-cost fares. low-cost airlines are planning to increase capacity by 7.3%, well above the expected european gdp growth and that is putting pressure on those yields. ryanair may have one of the worst fare declines since it has a large amount of bookings in pounds. anna: perhaps comforting to the
market, confirming their full-year net guidance and planning a 550 million euro buyback. we will stay to the ceo, michael fromry, here on "daybreak" 7:00 a.m. london time. let's get to our risk radar. we've talked about what's happening to the mexican peso. we've seen the peso gaining the most in four weeks. the yen down by more than 1% as its clearings to of clinton. yields on the 10-year at 1.28%. investors getting more into stocks. as things swing in clinton's favor, perhaps that puts the fed in play. $1290, gold currently at down 1.12%. a relief rally a little bit on
the increased likelihood that clinton might be able to pull this off. at 44.80ntly trading dollars a barrel. ongoing uncertainty about opec this month. we will talk more about that later in the program. let's cross to the bloomberg first word news. here's rosalind chin. rosalind: thanks. third quarter beat for hsbc. rose 7% pretax profit from a year earlier to 5.59 billion dollars. europe's largest lender was helped by the ceo's cost-cutting plan. u.k. prime minister theresa may is in india to lay the groundwork for a post-brexit trade deal, and warning that the following pictures contain flash photography. may has pledged to smooth the
path for investors. the premier unveiled what her office called a bespoke fasttrack visa service for high net worth indians and their families. she also promised quicker border checks. london, the house of commons holds its first full-scale debate on brexit later. attorney general jeremy wright will appear in front of lawmakers to answer questions about the high court ruling that the government must hold a vote in parliament before triggering article 50. china has ruled that anyone who supports independence for hong kong cannot hold public office. the decision was only the second unilateral interpretation of hong kong law since the former
+++ as thousands of people took to the street in support of two pro-independence legislators. china has replaced finance minister. according to state-run news agency, he is the top official. blackrock saying australia could lose top-notch credit rating by s&p as early as next month. if the midyear budget review shows further financial deterioration. the country has been struggling with a fiscal deficit since 2008 as lower commodity prices hit revenues. australia is rated aaa by three major agencies. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . anna: thank you very much. breaking news from softbank in japan. the telecommunications internet
business, fiber-optic and the like, reporting numbers that beat estimates for the second quarter. billion yen. that was nicely above the estimate, also beating at the net line. not giving any full-year guidance. talking about losses related to transactions, not there. they say they are booking an acquisition related costs on arm. this is the i.t. business in japan that has come forward to -based business, arm technologies. juliette saly is standing by. a lot of focus on this fbi investigation and the impact of that very evident across the asian equity trading day. juliette: it is indeed. we are seeing this very solid
risk on rally across asia, particularly safe haven assets dumped as well. the swiss franc, the japanese yen, having its biggest fall in around a month. that weakness in the yen lifting the nikkei, over 1.5%. very solid rally coming through there. you've seen some movement in australia and new zealand. new zealand has been in this correction territory. today, a 2.5% jump. here in hong kong, also some upside in late trade thanks to the energy players, the casinos, and despite the fact that you are seeing property stocks being dumped, hong kong announcing tot stamp duty would rise 15%. have a look at some of these property companies in hong kong being heavily sold off. bank of america merrill lynch, mizuho, all increasing rating
downgrades for a lot of these property companies in hong kong. earning season in full swing. hsbc doing well with its numbers, sending its share price up 2% in hong kong. westpac finished higher in australia. lotte shopping also doing well in seoul. the yen weaker and that is also helping sentiment today. yousef and anna. yousef: thanks. juliette saly joining us from hong kong. let's get more on the u.s. election and the fbi's decision to stick by its finding that hillary clinton did not commit a crime in her handling of e-mails as secretary of state. here's what the candidates have been saying over the last weekend of campaigning. >> right now, she's being protected by a rigged system. e-mailst review 650,000 in eight days. you can't do it, folks.
hillary clinton is guilty. she knows it. the fbi knows it. it,people, the people know and now it's up to the american people to deliver justice at the ballot. >> i want us to have an ongoing discussion about how we are all going to contribute to making our country all it should be. i really believe that america's best years are still ahead of us. if we all do our part -- [applause] and i think it's fair to say, after all the months of this campaign, my opponent has a very dark and divisive view of our country. yousef: for more, let's get to guy johnson in new york. talk us through the market reaction. guy: what the fbi are saying is,
nothing to see here. the problem is, when they came out with the last statement that said they were reinvestigating some e-mails, the markets have moved substantially. we've seen what is happening with stocks. the big question people are asking in new york, or will be later on, is, has this come too late to have a meaningful impact on this election, and how much do i need to price in? i think that's what the market is going through this morning. we've seen a relief rally in asia, europe, and likely when u.s. markets open later on. but does this latest from the fbi really change anything? the other question i think people are asking is, are we going to end up, if hillary clinton were to become the next president, where we have to keep coming back to this investigation? the turbulence has been by watering. are we going to be in a
situation where her presidency is dominated by this and this makes it harder to push policy through? i think those are the questions the markets are going to be asking, trying to get a short-term understanding, but also maybe trying to extrapolate beyond the election. yousef: you are on the ground. you've got a good sense of what's going on. does america appreciate that the rest of the world is watching? guy: i don't think it really does. there's a sense here that the presidency is going to be hamstrung. it is likely that if hillary clinton were to win, we would still have a republican congress and we would end up where we are now. in many ways, the presidency has a bigger effect outside the united states than it does inside the united states. we've seen that over the last few presidencies. the president can have a meaningful impact in europe, brexit, etc., and also the asian
security situation as well. i don't think there's an understanding here of just how interested, how intense the rest of the world is in understanding what this is going to mean. is this going to be a presidency that is isolationist or is it going to be one that has a big footprint in the rest of the world? i think people in america don't really get the fact that the presidency is incredibly important. probably more important for the rest of the world than it is maybe for america. anna: thank you very much, guy johnson in new york. he will be stateside for the rest of this week to follow the market reaction. daniel morris, senior investment strategist at b.n.p. paribas, joins us in london. exciting times in terms of watching the big moves in the markets. i've pulled up one of the asset classes that is going to be in the eye of the storm.
that is going to be the dollar. this is how the dollar has been moving. we've done some research. this seems to be the conclusion. the greenback against the yen will be determined by the election. we see a stronger dollar if clinton wins and a weaker dollar if trump wins. daniel: it is a little more challenging on the dollar. the yen should benefit if we are in a risk off mode. the question is, what do you think is happening from a foreign investor point of view? are they buying, are they selling, and how does that translate into the dollar? policies is kind of hillary clinton going to bring to the table to prove bullish for markets? a lot of it is priced into equities and bonds across asset classes. daniel: that is the key question, how much is she going to be able to do? expectations now that
republicans may keep control of the senate. even if they lose control, it is by a small amount. expectations are quite low. that might be the potential upside if there is more compromise than we've seen up to now. there could be something that happens, but people aren't anticipating much. anna: which playbook are you looking to to help you navigate this week, the brexit playbook, or are you very aware of the limitations of drawing parallels? daniel: probably a couple. certainly brexit is one. that would be comforting insofar as the turnaround was quick. the other would be what happened in 2000 when you had the disputed election in florida. that downturn was much more severe and lasted quite a while. you also have what happened this year when we had china. we are going to be somewhere probably between those extremes.
there is potential that it could drag out for a while. yousef: let's talk u.s. treasuries. sopulled up this great chart you can get a better perspective. we put in there brexit day one, day two, yields falling. clinton's lead starts widening. the trump comeback falters. the latest episode, the fbi reignites the e-mail controversy. anna: and then doesn't. yousef: rolls back on that. how much of this is fed-driven? how much of this is election-driven? daniel: it is not just the election. there is the fed, china, italy, many other things. even with the announcement of the initial fed investigation, you really didn't see treasuries fall that much. it didn't seem so much of a risk off move on the treasury point of view, more on the equity side.
the fed is still going to be there after election week. anna: what do you do with the euro in this context? i've got a chart which shows how much the euro is in vogue. this is weekly data that comes from friday. is that something you get excited about? euro bullishness running into this? daniel: probably a little more cautious. if we assume clinton does win the election and we focus back on the fed, a lot of it is going to depend on the tone. we are all expecting the hike. for the most part, more interest rate hikes in the u.s., stronger dollar. think to really see a significant rally in the euro, we're not quite there. yousef: in a scenario of a donald trump victory, what happens to assets? daniel: if we look at what happened post-brexit, we've
already been down perhaps 5% from the highs of a month or so ago. could you see another 5%, potentially. the selloff we've seen so far is more about the fed than trump. what is going to make the difference about how far it can go and how long is the rhetoric from from postelection. trade, that isut going to frighten investors. anna: daniel, thank you very much. daniel morris stays with us here on "daybreak: europe," and you can follow all the latest in action -- latest election news. coming up, prime minister may has arrived in india. no amount of travel can take her away from the brexit conversation. we break down the latest in the debate. yousef: later, live outside hsbc in hong kong after the banking giant beat estimates on its third-quarter profits. anna: plus, we speak to ryanair
yousef: welcome back. it is 2:22 in the afternoon in hong kong. you're looking at victoria harbour. the hang seng trading up. equities in asia doing well overnight. back in london, the house of commons holds its first full-scale debate on leaving the eu. here's a testimony from the attorney general. he will answer questions about the high court ruling that the government must hold a vote before triggering article 50. daniel, this story never short of being fascinating. last week, we heard from the
high court. moved the markets, pound quite considerably. what is the investor perspective on article 50? investors like certainty. they want to know there's a timescale. do they want to see the u.k. airing its dirty laundry in public? do they want to see a full debate about all this, or do investors not mind that much? daniel: i think it matters quite a bit. the reaction from sterling did suggest markets were happy about this. that is from the market point of view. the negative is potentially just how long is it going to take you for we work through that process? the key issue has always been, are businesses at some point going to decide it is too much uncertainty? balancedt was a bit and positive from the markets, but also some negative.
yousef: where are we in the process? what is your take on the ongoing uncertainty? there's only so much and so far investors are willing to stick around for the u.k. to fix its house, right? daniel: foreign investors that are currently invested in the u.k., if they see it moving past first quarter of next year, if now it has been extended to some point in the future beyond that, i think it is going to have a more significant impact. anna: what about the pound? i've got wcrs on the bloomberg. thepound down 15.6% against dollar. the worst performer of the g-8 and currencies. much moreurther, how position are we for further weakness on the u.k. story around sterling? daniel: the weakness we got so far was with the assumption of a
harder brexit. communicationry for the government switched moves. if you get a sense the government is going to stick to the original timeline and framework, you could see sterling weaken. if it is also an extended debate, that is not necessarily good for the currency. you are probably more concerned about weakness. anna: you wonder whether the pound is fixated on the outcome or the timing. daniel: exactly. yousef: how would you trade british assets at the moment? daniel: you've got to think about the benefit you had so far for equities. how much more are you going to get from that next year? you've had the benefit from weakness. on the gilt side, you're not going to see much action from the bank of england. it is a little more equivocal in terms of assets at this point. probably not quite as much of
side for equities. anna: are you factoring in inflation? the sunday times" reporting latest of a number of companies talking about putting up prices. i spoke to the ex-ceo of sainsbury's. he said of course they're going to pass this on to consumers. daniel: that has been the story about brexit. we got the benefits in terms of the weaker currency, boost to exports, boost to sterling, but perhaps the negative impact in terms of inflation, what is that going to do to consumer purchasing power? that is going to be hitting us fairly soon. i think we are going to start seeing the trade-offs. yousef: daniel morris, you are sticking around. a beat for europe's largest bank. we're live at hsbc's hong kong headquarters to go through the numbers. stay tuned. this is bloomberg. ♪ seeing is believing, and that's why
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as we can tell. this two daysng and it haselection risen the most since october 18. if you look at the smp futures, declinesong streak of ith nine days of losses and moves on to the fx space and this is the worst. the frank search and you are seeing the yen ride the most since july of last week and, on the flip side, the andcan peso always moves
overall production quota. and theanny is our man out jerian's have been speaking about what was at the last meeting. no way and the dollar is rallying and oil is rallying. back from outy syria and that is what they have said. have the traders with their isitions and the risk and thethe act together reward is from down in the conference.
>> you spoke to the chief executive officer and how optimistic was he? >> there are a couple of things that went through the main start and he doesn't think this is going to rise. he is optimistic and you have to stay tuned for that interview. he has somebody who is driving the bus finally. >> it is low capex and we will who can do that
?ith the low cost basis higher prices are at another level and they have every incentive for opec to come to the agreement. how are they making a dent in all of this? the thing the has come the russianswn to and there was a real sense that and thereoptimistic was aggressive leadership with theyng coming through and said they think that opec is leading from the front and it would lead to sustainable
maintaininganies still withnd keeping the oil prices back up again. term -- are the neil the near-term expectations of oil prices and what is priced into that is going to support the diffidence you are making like it is oneems a relative basis. >> we are seeing how people feel about the ongoing discussions and what you are looking at is the initial euphoria and the discussions and you can see a
slide with investors and money bearish becoming more and where to you stand in all of this? >> it appears to be about average and, if you are expecting the range, you are seeing the strength in the dollar and it seems to be more balanced at that average level neutral, probably more at this point. >> are they going to reach a deal or not? sustainably coproduction we would continue to be
skeptical. day where you go the the dollar index and oil prices going higher at the same time. in. week, we could focus dollar is bad for the oil prices and you can certainly have times where this reasserts itself. >> thank you very much. abouthear a little bit the banking sector and third-quarter earnings beating
program. on the what are they saying about the earnings release this morning? positive setairly and aults getting cheered certain goal of speaking to bloomberg brother in on the phone. he says that the investment bank performed best among the there is the annual costs with the global thatrint and he also says the return on equity target
andins a medium-term goal market share it is freeze.planning any pay they started the restructuring through 2011 and he has saved about 40,000 jobs. he says there will be a modest and iap -- headcount drop asked about brexit and the united kingdom exiting will not have a big impact. you have to have a certain
global presence for that to be the case. the results could be better than expected and cost cutting is something they are doing successfully. and thisthat is right it ises the items and better than the previous quarter and it includes the losses with the sale and you are looking at in thell in the profits third quarter's and there was some currency losses in these
results and i think that investors look at the capital that and investors look at as a key indicator and investors read this boost in the capital one ratio. >> the cfo says there is no change to dividend policy laid out. thank you. still with us is daniel morris. let's go to the sector and the agoing sector a few weeks with the eye of the storm and around regulation, what is your appetite? have interest rate
the results they had , they are adjusting to the environment with the restructuring and you have to think that this is more valuation and they look cheap. to what degree does this reflect a future profitability? we will eventually get a raise in interest rates. return have been able to to the acceptable level of profitability and they have the regulatory pressure. >> you kind of expect the u.s.
and it is challenges such as this. >> let me ask you about the delegation and i found this fromnating and they came opposite sides with the lead think businesses will be able to come together on that side? there are a few things to consider and the innovation and entrepreneurship is speaking the wherever we were
on the brexit debate. say, there are different views and we have experiences we can share here and a thing thereing this morning is thatich experiences capitalize and india has a major investment in the u k and the rest of europe and i think we are here to put aside some of these differences to see how we can forge ahead.
are you being sidetracked by a conversation around migration? belooks like this could something threatening trade been and i know there has asking for more students and this remains to be seen in this conversation. relevant andl very it is absolutely critical that we are able to find the right resource and there was an announcement of an improvement withen india and the u.k. nothing mentioned about students push fornk there was a
welcome to daybreak. i am alongside anna edwards. factoryve the german dropping with investment and demand versus the estimated grant -- estimated gain that is weaker than expected and the investment side of the economy seems to way upon things and there is certainly a bit of a economy with the german momentumand the and perhaps a bit
backwards looking. >> let's see how we are going to to 1.3% andhave up down from asia as we count the hours. with the futures committed withme the peso flying and stock futures increasing and the yen move comingh a big through markets as we digest twists and turns with treasuries and we have seen investors
moving with stocks support and treasuries and we see increased chances of a hike. so, we will move on to the bond inket and there we are and the second quarter earnings rose and helped a record number of passengers and they said they would offer a share buyback. it is great to see you. thank you for coming in. and if weme context should be comforted with the difficulties produced and the
jumps in profits. >> it is very eric and they are booking in bigger numbers and business continues to deliver. i think that this is a tough time, but ryan air is trading well. >> talk about the sterling forecast. and were conservative have been hit with sterling and and weks with the sales have to take that off the table, because we are concerned with and we this has run
expect that to continue. rationale about the that theave decided costs are not prohibitive. >> we do a lot of currency away thend we took dollar risk and we tend not to with extraordinary moves andwe take it to the winter wesee the fares falling and are 2% stronger from where we were last year and we will
continue to trade strongly with shareholders having to wait for returns. terms of thext, in possible expansions? >> we are talking to the french, but they are a bit slow and we the backunced this on of air berlin and the restructuring and we will see to compete with activelynd they are engaged in negotiations at the the growth we have opportunity that has never been with lower unit costs and we see this as a positive
and we announce another buyback of the shares. >> frankfurt, heathrow, and paris. it was just that one. >> just that one. >> you cannot get into heathrow hope there would be a more forward-looking decision andwe have been campaigning it will be full. >> i think the capacity crisis is severe here in the southeast and they should start with the runways and you do not encourage
an airport to waste the gargantuan amount of money. >> what kind of good deals are and you are bringing down the costs for all of these aviation operations. >> for ryanair, we are getting good deals and the airports want to see the growth and they are theyng the capacity as come to ryanair and say you are delivering the growth. >> you watch this process being managed and how does this affect the chaos that will in su? andwould pull out gradually
push more into europe. >> never said we would pull out. we have cut that and we will grow with meaningful decisions and the u.k. is losing out on the significant growth in andmarkets with costs lower the concern that the u.k. government has no idea what they are doing and no agenda with the negotiations. you can have single market i am really pessimistic. story have the whole around the investment with the demandsor and these are
to invest more. >> frankly, i would not waste too much time. the u.k. leaves the union and they could sell a lot more cars, which have become a lot more expensive. the electorate was lied to and they were told it is increasingly cleared and that is not the case. the agenda will be set by the europeans. many have committed to filing article 50 and there is no incentive on the europeans to help. it was simply for the u.k.. how will this affect the yields? >> there is no excess capacity for ryanair.
>> you are looking at that. >> it will fall for the next year or two. we are looking at the declines and they are on lower oil prices are for the next year or two and it will mean they will fly ryanair. is the ceo ofeary ryanair. the final countdown as clinton and trump try to attract voters. latest go live for the campaign news, including the new development in the clinton probe.
.hot of london it is to: 14 in new york and 7:14 in london. down 7/10 of 1%, at the moment. let's check in. .> yes thank you. the secretary-general has told bloomberg that they will stabilize the oil market. he spoke today at a conference in abu dobby. thee remain committed to what we painstakingly put and wer in algiers remain committed to the implementation. there are one-time items were
7% from a year earlier and affectedlargest lender the cost-cutting plan. shareare plans to offer a buyback and profits increased through december and beat analyst estimates with a record number of passengers served during the summer. that is your bloomberg business flash. on the u.s. in more elections and hillary clinton did not commit a crime handling her e-mails. here is what candidates have been saying while campaigning. >> right now, she is being protected by a rigged system.
review those e-mails in those days. you cannot do it. people is guilty and the know what. it is up to the americans to deliver justice at the ballot box. >> i want us to have an ongoing discussion about how we are all going to contribute to making the country all it should be. i believe that the best years are still ahead of us, if we all do our part. , i think it is fair to say, after all the months of this campaign, my opponent has a dark and divisive view of the country. .> guy johnson is in new york
talk us through the market thereon we have seen and is some risk on it. we have what is happening with the mexican peso and it is and theymuch stronger are pricing in a big bounce for later on with equities not moving and some of this will be taken back and the markets will have to grapple with the latest revelation and if it is too late to have an impact in the election. is it getting back to the
executive being held by the democrats and the legislature held by the republicans? we are trying to think about the latest revelation has come too late. is the damage already done? andhey are working out this if this is appreciated where you are. >> people are very determined that checks and balances are going to function and, for the rest of the world, the executive and the president has an impact on this. , the president can have a big impact and that is what the world is watching, if
we were to see a trump victory. could be done very quickly and there is a security aspect of america underwriting european security. would donald trump have an impact on the defense budgets and how they are formulated? aboutis a lot to think affecting the oil markets and china with plenty to think about and america is thinking about the white house and capitol hill . the rest of the world does not think this way. >> guy johnson will be stateside for us with all of the action around the vote. the ceo joins us now on set. good morning to you.
assets of all kinds are moving in this story. we are pulling up everything you need to know about this and we still have clinton in the lead .nd we have seen it narrow >> the markets are pricing in a victory and it may be a it premature to declare this victory. we know that many trump voters see the surprises and they hillary victory is more consistent with what markets can expect and there is not much of andange with foreign policy the trump victory brings some uncertainty for investors.
may not have the same point of view as american voters. >> what kind of leverage would either have in congress? >> the question is really what the attitude is with foreign policy and we believe that involvedould get more trump could be more oriented towards the mastech issues. the emerging currencies are asiang these scenarios in and they can actually be impacted by capital controls. >> tell me about what you plan to see in the scenario and the is initially showing a
knee-jerk reaction on the trump victory and would this be how you see things on the clinton when? what would that mean for the emerging markets in that scenario? and theave the dollar bank of japan policy component with the easy monetary policy in the emerging inflation and the witht is the weak yen reasonable growth. you have the currency for the emerging markets and the dollar could strengthen, relative to the emerging market currencies, because of the impact and the relationship with china and the
potential fixing of chinese currencies. >> yes. to this point, do you agree with the assessment on the clinton victory? >> at this point, it is very short-term with the dollar in relation to the emerging markets impact on thehe central european currencies. >> there is another asset that we are watching overnight with increasing chances of a clinton victory and treasury yields are higher because of the investment getting more stock.
>> you could get that out of the picture and look at the see it hasnd you can been going on with the impact on hillary brings the short-term horizon in and we have seen a market selloff with weanese negative yields and have to look at that decision on the world economy. >> many investors refer to donald trump as an unknown quantity and it causes jitters in the market. how will this affect monetary and the verbal back and
forth we have seen? >> we have seen the impact of the uncertainty and it delays the decision on the interest rates. havee short-term, you authorities in europe balancing the political risk and, within back to the will be macro considerations. anyo you think you will get sleep? we will be trying to keep a clear handle on what is happening in the markets. thank you for joining us. that is up -- that is it for
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guy: good morning. you are watching a special edition of "bloomberg markets -- the european open." i am guy johnson in new york this week, alongside jonathan ferro. caroline manning the desk in london. what are we watching? we all know -- 24 hours until election day. the fbi has cleared hillary .linton is the damage already done to the clinton camp?