tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg November 7, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm EST
trade. --net income rishaad: looking at these trade numbers, should give us an idea of what is going on, those numbers give us an idea of what is going on globally. we are expecting to see the pressure, a little bit. rishaad: the data has been improving a little bit. haidi: it is a rebalancing. we will get those numbers any minute now. now. get over to juliette
juliette: there really is only one story -- the u.s. election. we are seeing a risk on appetite across the asian region. a little bit of a switch and some of the markets today. you are not seeing quite the rally we saw during sunday session -- monday session. buying had already been factored into this part of the region. the other story is the yen coming back to that very strong selloff yesterday. the nikkei down by a 10th of 1%. ospi.on the cosk zealand,ng news in new
yesterday with that 2.5% rally, the biggest gain it had been five years for that equity market. australia also had a pretty solid session but pretty flat at the moment. some of the property developers in hong kong still being hit very hard. having a look at some of the , a little bitets more money coming into the yen after the big selloff yesterday. you are also seeing a little bit from the gold purse today. looking like we are forecasting that positive news coming ahead of the election result. reserves took's another hit last month. haidi: stephen engle is here with a closer look. burning through reserves to keep
the yen from falling too fast? stephen: we will be getting numbers from beijing momentarily. we are expecting exports and imports for october and the trade balance, expected to be a bit down again for the exports and imports. again, this weaker yuan we have been seeing has been helping the export scenario and exporters in china and that is why we are looking at these in conjunction. yesterday,rves file fallen the most since january. u.s.to 3.1 2 trillion dollars, still a big tile -- still a big pile. strengthave is dollar leading to you on weakness and weakness and
more outflows. 1.53%an has weekend against the dollar last month, which is the biggest monthly drop since the devaluation in august of last year. the white line shows the fx pile burn, if you will. the burn of reserves has not been as fast as the authorities have allowed the currency to depreciate. that indicates there is more c.lerance from the pbo the global demand has been quite tepid. those chinese for trade figures, expecting exports to fall 6% following a 10% fall in september. we are expecting about a .8
percent fall in exports for the yuan, after a 5.6% fall in september. imports are little bit of a different story. they have fallen 22 out of the past 23 months the case of declines has been dwindling. i am standing by for you guys. haidi: any moment now. >> south korean prosecutors have visited headquarters as part of the investigations into the president influence on the scandal. samsung may have given $3 million to accompany. the head of opec says russia is on board with the agreement to limit crude oil production.
the world's biggest energy producer is due to join the group for talks in the anna -- vienna. >> we at opec, we remain accorded to the algiers we put together. committed to a simple mentation. >> -- committed to its implementation. modi called on britain. may said she was willing to look at some aspects of the visa. china has called on the international committee to -- theits ruling
intervention came after two local lists refused to take oath to the leaders of beijing. a decision could spark further unrest in the city. global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. rishaad: investors are pricing in after one of the most divisive u.s. presidential campaigns in recent memory. the final poll showing clinton leading 44-41. haidi: it was conducted before james comey said clinton should not face criminal charges related to her use of her personal e-mail server when she was secretary of state. rishaad: let's go to new york. let's take a look at the market
reaction. what is the thinking? >> you might think it is because stocks are democratic and bonds are republican. a little joke. the stock market has come even further around to pricing and hillary clinton as the next president. a market analyst says that is true and is considered a status quo president who will not -- status quo candidate who will not rock the boat. a very different story with the bond market. barclays noted that a trump or -- people would see would want safety. they would buy u.s. treasuries because they would expect stocks to fall over this big boost and uncertainty. global investors climbing into u.s. treasuries. a clinton win is considered boosting the fed rate hike odds
in december. world interest rate projections, far right hand side of your screen, the odds are 80%. that is the highest of 2016. that is what the markets are keying up for. a clinton win, said reich -- hike in december. know the fed is watching this key indicator as a key reason to hike in december. how much is the fed reading into this? promising toem create jobs underscores that the
labor market could use a little help. hillary clinton has a 100 day jobs plan investing in manufacturing, reducing regulation and taxes on small business. donald trump has a 100 day jobs plan based on cutting taxes across the board. you have more money to spend, i have more money to invest. again.ook at this chart togethertors, one put by janet yellen staff, you can see how weak it was during the recession. it has kind of plateaued. barely moved back into the green, showing a little bit of a sign of growth for jobs in the report that came out yesterday. carl weinberg, the founder of high-frequency, no matter which
candidate is in the white house, the rate hike is coming now. going to benot there no matter who is president -- we seem to be in a regime where we are growing at 2% but still bringing down the unemployment rate. the fed will be tightening no matter who gets elected. >> a lot of chatter with donald trump trying to push janet yellen and of the fed chair seat. it is difficult to do, she has the job until february 2018. the president can only remove the fed chair for cause. secure.is probably haidi: at least there is some certainty for the markets. central bank watchers coming to
bank has posted a record second-quarter profit. to $465me climbed million. the stock has climbed 7% this year. ousted started it could reduce the need for impairments which you total more than $10 billion. are still awaiting the october trade data out of china. economist expecting it to drop 6%, a slight improvement from those numbers last month. rishaad: the chief china
economist at ubs joins us now. we are still waiting for the numbers. idea do you get for the chinese economy? 6% as thedecline is consensus forecast, it still shows improvement from last month. it would still mark a 2% increase in export volume. that shows global demand is climbing out of the woods a little bit and china's depreciation has been slightly helpful. haidi: we had a pretty solid set 's bmis coming through -- pmi coming through. doesn't paint a picture of a recovery -- does it paint a
picture of the recovery well on foot? >> export orders are still a little bit soft. the domestic rebound has been helped by higher infrastructure investment, the recent property rebound, and that helped to push demand for commodity materials. industry profit has increased as well. rishaad: is it really a recovery? it seemed like everything was fine. we had some mixed data when it came to manufacturing versus services, but essentially steady as she goes. been saying the economy has been teetering? real year on year gdp growth seems quite steady.
recently, over 7%. the most important thing at the micro level is nominal growth has really improved. profit and revenue. rishaad: what is that telling us? >> some demand recovery. demand recovery may not be that strong. what has helped is the production cuts in the coal sector. supply-side reform has taken place. there is capacity cut and also production restraints. haidi: you can talk about the rebalancing and domestic demand, when it comes to what is driving these numbers, investment is still king. out of the top five fastest-growing provinces in
china, it is outpacing gdp growth. the overreliance on investment and credit has been a concern. certain provinces are still driven by investment. in other parts, especially those affected by excess capacity, it has been collapsing. overall, for the country, investment has been growing at a slower pace. consumption has been rising. there is a bit of a give or take. the transition is still happening. it is happening. rishaad: there is some reform taking place. is it really taking place well below the radar?
why would that be the case to do it like that? all, it is still controversial in terms of how to reform. people are talking about ownership. the governments are talking about efficiency gains. it is a different philosophy. in terms of production cuts, more prominent than actual privatization. it is strongly enforced. rishaad: that is why we have seen ppi turned positive finally. >> it helped. oil price has improved as well. haidi: i want to get your announcement -- your reaction to that announcement yesterday. we were not expecting that.
, a statement coming through very careful china watcher, even with these limited economic reforms are starting to fall prey to this consolidation of power. is that a legitimate way to interpret the reshuffle? >> i would not read it that far. the retirement age for a minister level official is 65. only one exception. it is not widespread. just because -- rishaad: 68, isn't it? on for one more year. speculating whether he would have the same treatment
and being promoted. -- in being promoted. haidi: any change in the fiscal stance? >> the fiscal reform has already had a bit of a setback. last year, when the tightening of local government budget was met with the needs to support growth. we have increasing fiscal channels through other channels. he has set out a host of reform plans in the future. fiscal reform is always going to be much more difficult than financial reform. haidi: thank you so much for coming on for us. rishaad: world bank profits flat. we are heading to sydney for the details. ♪
bank, lookingonwealth down by 1.5 percent. allend: we have paul looking at these numbers. what were they like overall? word -- flat. 2.4 billion dollars for the quarter, not a great deal of change from the first quarter of last year. 1.8 billion u.s. dollars. bad debt weighing on commonwealth bank. the highest level in two years. lower inest margins the quarter but that is something we have seen with all
of commonwealth banks major competitors. this is more of a trading update. they operate on a different financial year to the other three banks. take a look at the stock price, 1.38% worse off than it was at the open and that is weighing down on the asx as a whole. stocks aussie banking are suffering today. big 4 --unding out the in summary? paul: pretty mixed really. anz had their lowest profit in five years. you have to keep all of this in context. all of the banks are being required to hold more capital to protect them against future shocks. had to raise they
investors are pricing in a victory for hillary clinton after one of the most divisive president of campaigns in recent memory. the final bloomberg poll shows clinton leading donald trump 44%-40 1%. -- 41%. china has called on the international community to support its ruling banning anyone who supports independence from hong kong from holding public office.
hong kong lawyers signed a protest march on tuesday. south korean prosecutors have visited samsung headquarters as part of investigations into the president's influence scandal. given $3 million. he was formally arrested last week on charges of attempted fraud and abuse of authority. year into bonuses for wall -- year endrs are bonuses for wall street bankers are expected to shrink this year. they may fall as much as 10%. bankiggest investment a second quarter of fixed-income trading gains. global news 24 hours a day
powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: this is bloomberg markets asia. with its morning session. haveen you wake up and you a 371 point again on the dow jones index, you might've have expected a little more positivity coming through. we rallied quite high on monday. you are seeing a stronger yen today, coming back from that selloff yesterday. we did see quite a lot of weakness in those safe haven assets on monday session. that is playing into the nikkei, it has gone into its lunch break. some of those export companies being sold out today.
a little bit of a switch out. some of those mining players looking quite good. having a look elsewhere, the regional index rebound from those seven-week low's. there is still a lot of positive momentum coming through in market sentiment that we could see a hillary clinton presidential when. you are seeing that very much in the crude oil price. the mexican peso is strengthening for a fourth consecutive session. hong kong, we are seeing upside from the casino stocks. the hang seng is up in the morning session. marketstheast asia looking very solid today. having a look at some of the movers we are watching. i mention those casino players, leading the gains in hong kong. rebounding from that three-week
low we saw at the end of last week. galaxy and sands looking quite strong. this is on expectations that the link is imminent. we had a rise coming through from domino's pizza. upgrading the company to outperform, one of the best performers on the asx 200. santos also leading those gains. altec is want to watch in japan. up by over 8%. yesterday, it rose by 18%. came through with it nine-month results.
gold, coming at back after that downward trend yesterday. check on the japanese yen, coming back up after that big drop, the biggest in a month yesterday. straight to steve, those trade numbers just crossing. >> the yuan is a little bit weaker on the trade front. exports falling 3.3%. we were expecting a fall of .8% after september's 5.6%. excuse me, 3.2%. exports inor october. imports a little bit less than expected. yuan terms, we were
expecting a 5% rise after 2.2% in september. that leaves a trade surplus of 325.2 billion yuan. we are expecting a surplus of 366. a little bit below expectations. the numbers are quite staggered because of the yuan depreciation against the dollar over the last year. the numbers are quite skewed. in dollar terms, we can figure this out. we are expecting a fall of about 6% in dollar terms after september's 10% fall. the headline right now, a little bit weaker export and import picture in yuan terms coming out of china. down 3.2% for exports for the month of october and up 3.2% for
imports. rishaad: thank you, steve. the dollar number should be crossing pretty soon. haidi: that will give us a better indicator. a little bit of a miss, not nearly as bad as septembers data. let's head over to japan. rishaad: analyst expecting the impact of the strength of the yen to leave a dent in revenue. it fell less than anticipated. incentives that nissan offered customers, does that have anything to do with these better than expected numbers? >> the performance in america was a bit better than expected and part of that was bringing buyers into the dealers with incentives. they came out with $4000 per vehicle, a pretty big incentive.
larger than any other japanese carmaker and even with what u.s. carmakers are making. this is a clear sign nissan takes the north american market very seriously. a strategy of focusing on suvs and pickups in that market. those have a better profit margin and it wants to keep the market share. target, ibeating the think that is probably more down to the yen being a little bit weaker than the company forecast to quarters ago. -- two quarters ago. were based on the yen being stronger than it actually was and gives the company some padding to beat its targets by a bit. translateow will they and how -- in how to yoda did?
did?yota >> the patterns would be very similar. you can see estimates for 39% decline in quarterly net, a big drop for a company of that size. at the same time, it would be a good bet that it would beat the analyst estimates. they have the yen targeted at 100 to the dollar and it has been a bit weaker than that. dropnk we can expect a big . possibly better than what those numbers targets -- analyst targets had been. haidi: what does it tell us about how the chinese automotive market is doing? >> nissan counts north america as its biggest market but it has bet pretty big in china. they were counting on the chinese market for a lot of
growth. , a taxs a tax policy rebate that has been offered in china for smaller vehicles. that is a big part of nissan's market. should the government extend those tax credits, that would be a very good sign and they would pick up some growth there. it is the world's largest car market. these companies are a major player there. you can see with these incentives,, they are really banking on the u.s. market to bounce back and even though china is a bigger market, they had a hard time making the margins there on their cars. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. let's take a look at some of the other headlines we are following. a $10 planning to bet on billion casino in japan.
ceo says he is optimistic japan will lift the ban on gambling and he has high hopes for any project there. the latest numbers starting to recover from the two-year slump. rishaad: australia's interest rate already record lows. the reserve bank is likely to reduce its key rate to 1% by next year. stock market pricing in that probability of being about 4%. templeton calls it a buying opportunity. thirdsprofit fell by two inand quarter. net income at the world's in slumped.el cha
>> weaker than expected imports and exports across the board. this weakening of the yuan against the dollar, the biggest ofthly drop since august 2015. not feeding into the export equation because exports are weaker than expected. indollar terms, down 7.3% october year-over-year. we were expecting a fall of 6%.
we were expecting 1% fall in imports. 1.4%, on terms, we got top of 1.9% fall. of the last 24 months we have seen falls in imports. not as bad as that july summer slow down in imports. weaker than expected imports and exports. leaving a trade balance in dollar terms. expecting 51.7, a little bit of a mess. trade continues to be week, exports continue to be weak, external demand not quite up there just yet. rishaad: perhaps a little bit of weakness internally as well.
a forward indicator. president obama has pledged to strengthen ties with asia. beijing'some say divide and conquer strategy is undermining not. -- undermining that. >> it has become a territory attention. -- territory tension with sea and violent protests on land. at least six nations have laid claim to regions in the south china sea. sovereignty is irrefutable. >> and international tribunal
sided with the philippines, beijing has ignored the ruling. the territorial power play has dragged in neighboring countries and allies. the next president will have to decide where america's best interest lie. >> i want to reassure our allies in japan and south korea that we haven't -- we have mutual defense treaty's and we will honor them. >> our allies must contribute. many of them are simply not doing so. >> the philippines may be distancing itself from decades of u.s. support. >> separation from the united states. playingsay he is washington against beijing.
>> that is a strategy that makes or midsizeome small countries. haidi: he still sees the u.s. being a dominant force in this region. >> everyone seems to be pivoting toward everyone else. it does show the extreme fluidity geopolitically in the region at the moment. no one really is sure what lies behind. beingll see the u.s. involved in the region and its allies wanting to counterbalance an aggressive china.
>> with all this back to back of , pledges, beijing seems to be taking this cash offensive after doing things to alienate a number of countries in this region. will it make some of these countries have it away from their loyalties -- pivot away from their loyalties to washington? >> the idea of pivoting to or pivoting away. countries do not want to make an exclusive choice. they feel china is part of their economic future but they are uncertain about the way china has thrown its weight around. no question that china in the year in a stronger position than when the ruling came down in july. china does not have to do much at the moment. people are handing things on a
plate to beijing. by u.s. is very distracted this convulsion in their political system. haidi: what is the approach for the u.s. in asia once we get past the election? >> one very striking feature of the debate is how little asia .eatured in any shape or form when foreign policy came up, it was either russia or the middle east. clinton, it isy a pretty safe bet that it will be continuity, a harder line on china than her predecessor. if it is donald trump, who knows? rishaad: who would the u.s. be looking at to make sure the next shoe to drop should not be.
>> it is a slippery customer. mr. obama spent a lot of time in southeast asia. switchbackwill see a to bilateral relationships but not necessarily the allies. philippines and thailand are both wavering. it will be a new ballgame. do we should the u.s. -- have a world where the u.s. is retreating from their position on the global stage and china more than willing to step -- how dangerous is that?
haidi: up next, angie and dave will be around to update you on the big stories of the day. >> we are talking about china trade data, imports and exports all coming out. what does this mean for stabilization? is it in jeopardy? move, it will likely strengthen the dollar, weaken the yuan. what about a trump presidency for china? you can add trade shock to the list of risks for china. implications for a trump or
clinton win. japan is watching the u.s. election closely. are yen traders bracing for any impacts question mark we will discuss that and a whole lot more in the next hour. rishaad: the billionaire says his technology empire is running out of cash. haidi: he is doing something about it. doing about his cash flow problem? costs andrying to cut layingans he will start off some stuff and he will make his customers pay more for their products. tvs, theys and smart will have to fork out a little
bit of extra to get those. he will refocus on the market he is already in -- india, america, russia, and china. rishaad: tell me something. what is affecting his business the most? what is going on? >> probably a mixture. a bit of a lack of demand. if you look at the top five chinese smartphone makers, he is nowhere near the top five. if you look at the new business they unveiled a new driverless car and the thing could not get on stage. becauset is interesting
this memo has been widely circulated on social media. is there legitimacy behind concerns? >> there are a lot of concerns. areher or not the practices illegal or if it is at the boundaries of what you can do. at this stage -- rishaad: thank you, david. i had, bloomberg markets -- i had, bloomberg markets with david and angie. ♪
announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: syrian president bashar al-assad met with western journalists and think tank people in damascus earlier this week. he insisted his country's social fabric was better. he ruled out political changes and declared he planned to remain president until his term ends in 2021. it is believed at least 500,000 syrians have been killed and nearly half the country's