tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg November 8, 2016 12:00pm-3:31pm EST
bloomberg world headquarters in new york's, covering story from washington, d.c. to new york and to london and most all. -- mosul. americans eligible to vote for president with as many as 50 million having already done so. we will go to chicago and hear from austan goolsbee, the former chairman of the council of economic advisers under president obama. he is a hillary clinton supporter. been an exactver science and fight is getting worse. the training day, julie hyman joins us with the latest. julie: a remarkable turnaround, stocks lower earlier not by much lower after yesterday again, the largest -- yesterday's big game, the largest since march 1.
we are seeing stocks turnaround. the s&p 500 on an intraday basis having a turnaround at 11:00 a.m.. talking to traders and others who watch the markets, it might have to do with some independent polling sources who are looking at voter turnout in various states, reporting some of the numbers from florida. we do not know if this is an indication of what will happen but traders have a trigger finger when it comes to any kind of election related data. they are eager to get to -- a leg up on the election. that is behind the turnaround in stocks. we saw a mixed picture earlier of the groups in the s&p 500 and now the bloomberg is showing mostly green with an exception of a sliver of consumer staples. telecoms, utilities doing the best is a more defensive stock but consumer discretionary's near the top which is cyclical.
health care is among the best groups, earlier at the bottom of the pack. we have seen a shakeup as the session has gone on in we have been watching treasuries. as this election day goes on. they saw a turnaround earlier, we saw yields lower, buying in the markets, on the longer end of the curve but they are now selling and the turnaround occurring as we saw the turnaround in stocks. the yield on the 10 year at 127%. what is interesting is what could happen after the election. someone said the election risk is asymmetric, if there is a donald trump victory, the average of the rate strategist who we forecast are looking at a 1.68% yield on the 10 year note in the aftermath of the election. in the event of a clinton victory, 1.86%, in line with now. he said event risk is asymmetric
that is what he is talking about. next year, the vice-chairman at loomis sales is looking at 2.6%, that is his prediction for this time next year for the 10 year yield if there is a clinton victory. the median forecast is 2.13%. a lot of not just looking ahead to later this week, but strategist are trying to a struggling what we could see -- extrapolate what we could see when you're from now. something not to lose sight of as we access over the poll numbers in the next 24 hours. vonnie: we will be speaking with david later this week. thank you for that, julie hyman. let's check in on the first word news. more from the newsroom. >> america is deciding who will lead the country for the next four years. campaign ended earlier today and americans are casting
ballots. many avoided the lines, as many as 50 million people voted earlier. polls show hillary clinton with a narrow lead, she and former president bill clinton voted near their home in chappaqua, new york. donald trump voted in the city. he told foxnews he does not trust many opinion polls which he said are inaccurate on purpose. said he was not trying to influence the u.s. presidential election with his organization published packed e-mails on hillary clinton campaign. in a statement, he suggested wikileaks would publish material on donald trump if it receives appropriate material and judged it newsworthy. he said wikileaks has not received information on donald trump that fulfills its dated editorial criteria. willsa may says she reinforce the relationship with the united states no matter who the next president is. that she willews
call whoever wins the election as soon as possible. on sunday, she had said she would -- with the presidential race had been more calm and measured. german authorities say suspects focused on recruiting young muslims in germany and raising money to send them to syria to join up with islamic militants and they were arrested. local news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. as we head toward the close of this election, to paraphrase gerald ford, our long national nightmare is almost over. vonnie: a few more hours and out to beill not turn so much of a nightmare when we look at it in the future. arers across the country casting their ballot for the next president of the united states. hillary clinton and donald trump have spent the final days barn storming battleground states.
polls show the race had tightened. we will be looking at florida, the; 30, point might tell us pointe 7:30 cutoff >> -- a lot of these battleground states, pulling indicate they are close and it will be while before the results. intoarly vote heading election day voting shows that florida is looking to be a tossup. hillary clinton might have an advantage starting off in nevada and colorado and donald trump might be leaning forward in north carolina and ohio. we will be watching to see how the battleground states playoff patrickdonald trump's was winning most if not all these days. -- these states.
vonnie: in florida, a split hispanic vote. >> one of the trends is the increase in latino turnout, particularly in florida. after the fact, we will see how much a factor in to the total vote. vonnie: you call ohio nohio. >> it has a reputation for being the bellwether state but voted 13 times in a row for the winner but missouri once did that. if you want a real bellwether state, you have nevada -- it had 16 consecutive votes for the winning candidate in a row before jimmy carter in 1976. it turned around and has no one night in a row. -- it turned around and has won nine in a row and it is wrong for hillary clinton early. is there plans, you can flip a coin 25 times, does not
mean you know anything where it ends up on the 26th. >> true but we have to kill time. places that you try to look at that represent america and you try to draw inferences for what they may mean and we have seen a lot of able move into nevada. you have minorities, hispanic population is very big. a lot of uneducated -- undereducated whites, the people donald trump appeals to. it has a mix. do we get to nevada before we know what is going on? the map of poll closing times, how many battlegrounds dates in the eastern time zone. if they all reported, we would be able to call this election in 2012arly but florida was never called on election day
because it was too close. if that will decide the election, we may have a long wait. mark remembers, i do not want to talk about 2000 in florida. vonnie: we will talk about that in a minute. blowout about tom brady and gisele. we can dismiss it but tom brady and gisele, depending on whether they voted for donald trump, it has significant, the secret vote , do people admit they voted for him when they do not vote for him? >> i do not know much about that. we have seen controversy over ballot stuffing, people who want to take a picture of the ballot and in some states it is against the law. sure what the fallout will be from the tom brady and gisele. : the secret donald trump vote.
what about the impact on the federal reserve because you are a federal reserve specialist among other things. many people said there might be a changed at the head, why should there be? >> there will not be, janet yellen will stay up donald trump is elected to protect the independence of her organization. she will not bow to political pressure. it could get interesting in 2018, her term and the vice chair term is up. you have to make an announcement about reappointment in late 2017 , very early on, we could see for a president trump might be going. he would probably get a bit of both but president clinton would probably keep both. it will matter. latest just reviewed the alan greenspan book and how much of political maneuver he was, not that the federal reserve was a political institution but he was political savvy.
does that change our view of the current federal reserve matchup? >> no, janet yellen is politically savvy, she outmaneuvered larry summers. a different washington and alan greenspan had worked for many years inside an administration as chairman of the council of economic advisers and as a close a different washd alan greenspan had worked for many confidant of republican presidents. wereew where the levers and janet yellen has not done the same kind of politics. vonnie: thank you. u.s. electionof results on bloomberg television, tuned in for election coverage starting at 5:00 p.m. eastern with a two-hour with all due respect special with mark halperin and john heilemann. at 7:00 p.m., election special with david gura and megan murphy . coming up, more on the u.s. economy. joined by austan goolsbee from the university of chicago school
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i am vonnie quinn. a long race for the white house with campaigns by hillary clinton and donald trump that they did two visions of america that were very different. here is austan goolsbee, an economist at the university of chicago who served under barack obama and is supporting mrs. clinton. he joins us from chicago. pass this campaign been any more bitter -- that typical campaigns.
austan: it has been horrible, the most bitter campaign of our lifetimes. we have seen bitter campaigns in our lifetimes and hopefully we can get past it. vonnie: what will be the outcome? apart from the result, is this country still very much divided? austan: on some things, for sure. i just hope that with the election over, we will come in with a new administration, usually when things happen in , when they reach compromises and do deals at the beginning of an administration and in the last six years or whatever, they spend, people are doing and handwringing about the destruction. i am hopeful -- about the dysfunction. , iope hillary clinton wins think she would be a far better
president than donald trump. if she does win, who knows who will control the senate, almost republicans -- almost certainly republicans will control the house and they will have to agree with each other to come together and try to solve the problems of the country. i am hopeful that on some things we will be able to. vonnie: given her policy and hurty book, what would priorities be in the first 100 days -- her priorities be in the first 100 days? austan: what she has talked about is what she would do, infrastructure, probably something on education and training. she would move for immigration reform and she will try to raise taxes on a high income people. those have been a lot of the main economic factors with her campaign. , shee: a lot for 100 days talks about bringing manufacturing, good
manufacturing jobs back to the midwest. how doable is that? austan: in 100 days, it is not a magic one that will fix it all in 100 days but i think in the first 200 days, if they could reach some agreement with congressional republicans, we certainly saw the first 200 days of the obama administration, they did a lot. republicans do not like what he did and democrats do but they were able to do a lot. i faith we should keep our eyes open for the possibility of people doing these deals at the beginning of an administration. vonnie: given the gop and probably more than one split, a fractured party, if clinton does ,in, who does she reach out to who become sarao light on that
side of the table -- who becomes her ally on that side of the table? austan: in a weird way, the traditional republican, conservatives but not social conservatives and not the trump ian tea party types would be the ones she talked to. they are getting a little nervous because they did not seemedat this -- what like a populist fringe within the party was as big as it was, that he got the nomination has been nervous. i am not saying that there is a low degree of difficulty in finding people to do these agreements with but i think that once the fever breaks and it becomes clear that donald trump not a loser, and it is majority of the country that supports his ideas, i think you will start to see some movement by republicans to put this behind them and let them never
speak of it again. vonnie: you are saying that there will be a clear mandate after today? austan: there is a possible despots ability of a pretty clear mandate. vonnie: what is the next figure of the house, who is the next bigger of the house? austan: it should be paul ryan but he clearly will have a hard time because he is more moderate -- is more moderate members will be the ones defeated if they are getting defeated. that what i think is anybody's guess. vonnie: austan goolsbee, professor of economics at chicago, thank you for joining us. still ahead, mike pence cast his vote earlier in indiana. we will bring you the latest headlines. ♪
markets, i am vonnie quinn. stephen roach did not hold back on surveillance when it came to the u.s. election, his belief on the issues that matter and who he wants as the next president. tom keene asked him fortescue on america's future. >> the last day we will have to trump as aonald credible candidate. oncan now go on to focusing what it will look like for president clinton which is the most likely outcome and she faces a challenging economy and a challenging world. icugh issues in chinacentr asia with china more muscular on foreign policy and how she addresses that without tpp, which is something she believed in as secretary of state was the centerpiece of a china containment strategy will be a big challenge for her and she
will try to figure out how to get that into that approach. tom: my chart of the year, simple, this is the for your moving average of real gdp from morning america in the late 1990's and down we go to what we , not bad, about 3%, we are not getting it done and you predicted this, you were very strong on a soft consumer, down in a 2% run rate on gdp, 40% decline in our economic growth in a matter of 20 years, maybe 15 years, what is the roach prescription to give us a little bit more economic growth? >> you have to get behind the number and the major reason for the shortfall in gdp which are right in pointing out is the unprecedented weakness in consumer demand. american consumer growth rate for eight years has been about 1.5%. that is two points below the pre-crisis average for the 12 preceding years.
we went through a balance sheet recession lights offended. with consumers overly -- they are still paying down debt and rebuild savings and given the shortfall of the labor income because of stagnant real wages, maybe changing a tiny bit now, they are not getting back to where they need to be. we have to address the consumer. >> is this the new normal? >> i hate that word news normal, francine. tom: there goes your consulting gig. >> i never had one, a challenging headwind, tom. there is so much focus on providing relief for beleaguered corporate america. the real issue is making america consumers whole again. assisting them with their excess debt and their total lack of savings in addressing an
insecure and frightening future for many american families. tom: which state will you be looking at most closely. ? > the usual dust florida, --higan -- the usual florida, michigan, i do not think it will be close, we can go to bed early. the momentum is not there. the media's tried to make this look close but i -- think that e air -- the hot air is out of the donald trump balloon. tom: well hillary clinton keep the janet yellen? >> yes, no need for her to change it. >> what happens if donald trump wins, what happens to the u.s. consumer? >> i get a new passport. >> where would you move do, new hampshire? considerably --
seriously considering the options but i do have a backup plan that i am prepared to take out if that happens later tonight. come outng good could of the donald trump presidency, fiscal spending, taxes, deregulation? >> nothing good would come from a donald trump presidency and i'm confident in the character of the american people to have figured that out a long time ago. vonnie: that was stephen roach of yell university. coming up, we hear from the chief market strategist at boyette and best of management about the elections impact on the markets. , the dow upng steam three quarters of 1% and the s&p up two thirds of 1% and the nasdaq up 8/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪
on the news this afternoon. mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. republican vice presidential nominee and mike -- e and his wife donald trump is favored to win indiana a level -- 11 electoral votes and races in the state are expected to be close. tim kaine didn't let the biggest selection of his life get in the way of his tuesday routine. the democratic vice presidential nominee met a group of friends for breakfast at the city diner in richmond. they try to meet every tuesday at the diner a few miles from his home. u.s. senator and former virginia governor was greeted with cheers as he walked into the restaurant. joining a legal challenge over -- british government plan
the scottish minister announced the move today. the scottish national party raise the possibility of another vote on independence from the u.k.. overwhelmingly to remain in the european union. the earth experienced its from 2011-2015rd according to a report by the world meteorological organization that says the floods, droughts, and storms released by temperatures are largely just a prelude to weather extremes. a warming trend may be responsible for numerous extreme weather episodes, including a drought in eastern africa between 2010 in 2012 that led to about 258,000 deaths. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. a quick check on u.s. stocks now.
afternoonhrough the session, as we approach the afternoon session, the dow is up 200%. the s&p 500 is up 610 -- of .6%. .3%.asdaq is up a little more enthusiasm. >> it is a tale of two cities. shares are absolutely plunging. 50%, stillay, down trading at 2009 lows. the earnings estimate by 42%, making it $1.58 per share in adjusted earnings. causing them to go up here
deutsche by 42%, making it $1.58 per share in adjusted earnings. extraordinarily difficult to now believe that for quarter that a turnaround story remains in play. shares are sharply higher, nicely in the green, trading at a record high after they put up a record high. $31 in adjusted earnings. you have to know, the margins here is unbelievably high. really like, the guidance was really strong and bloomberg intelligence analyst saying this quarter was really -- it did indicate overall travel demand is strong. we go to the bloomberg and take havek, in blue we
priceline trading at record highs. we have trip advisor. 25% at this point. there could be some strength ahead for more trip advisor. nervously waiting for the election season to finally come to a close. here is a look at what the impact has been on the markets douglas, whoxpect personally manages about $1 billion in assets for global perspective strategies. where do you anticipate the market impact to be the greatest? >> we have to look at the october surprise. it was not rising trump were rising hillary, but rising yields.
not only in the u.s. but globally in china and india, japan. 40%ie: it got a 30% to basis point rise. will that hold? or as we heard earlier from julie hyman, you mentioned saying that would all get erased. douglas: it won't. a tortoise economy. it is growing slowly, but it is a synchronized move across the markets. that is a positive. yields will not go up fast, but it is an indicator of economic and we see this in u.s. corporate earnings, up for the first time in six quarters. that is positive going into 2017. vonnie: when the market decide it would close in october? you've say it has all to do with the jobs report and manufacturing data? >> there is so much emphasis on tryingction that we are
to get good economic numbers. manufacturing in particular. across the board, it has been positive. theumer spending around world, it is not great growth, but we are seeing a turn. the canary in the coal mine is definitely corporate earnings. third quarter, 2016, positive earnings. we have not seen that in a while. that is a with of what is going on. vonnie: do you say, don't worry about the election? you know what, i worry about things that are not certain. what is certain tomorrow is we will have a new president. that is certain. of the country will be depressed in those depressed people will spend a lot. high consumer spending, record low mortgage rates, rising asset jobs, everything is going well for the consumer. they will get over it. this shall pass and everyone will focus on the economy and
britain.l economy even that is all good news. vonnie: you don't anticipate those great numbers will hold or that half of the country will just get over it and get on with things? will.s: i believe they we have seen it before with bush gore. you get over it and it was contentious, and they will not be able to hang onto it. the consumers feel good. vonnie: i do not think we can quite compare the two. there was an incident we heard. but let's move on. talk to us about where you are. >> globally diversifying. one key thing investors have missed, everyone has focused on s&p 500 and rate assets. this year has totally changed. inersification is working u.s. mid-cap and small-cap, emerging markets are the best performing equity and bonds, corporate bonds, long treasury
bonds have done well. we expect the short end of the curve to go up here the long and because of continued slow growth, will keep the long and low. we think being in bonds, not short duration, you do not get any yield from short duration. say we are probably going up to, not much higher than this, two and a quarter for 2017. that bodes well. you want to be in the bond market not just for yield but diversification. part ofhedge on equity the portfolio. i am saying, get into the growth part of part of the market. i think it is brimming around the hotspot. and ind and indonesia
think that is growing strongly around 5%. frontier markets really had an opportunity. a lot of volatility, south america. vonnie: you're mentioning all those countries. are you concerned at all the ttp does not go through, that those countries will not in the future? douglas: yes here and i am. global trade is an economic plus. in any way, shape, or form, i do not understand why our two presidential candidates are against it. ont will slow growth down only globally but in the u.s. trading withs is the global economy. i think we ultimately do it once cooler heads prevail. but that is another reason i think asia will be good for us. thank you.
chief market strategist envoy investment management. coverage of election results on bloomberg television. tuna today on -- at 5:00 p.m. eastern with a two hour special of with all due respect. from 7:00 p.m., our election specials. anded by david beer washington bureau chief. up, pulling has never been an exact science but is it getting worse? this is bloomberg. ♪
are watching bloomberg. i am vonnie quinn. income revenue boosted third-quarter profits. tesla motors agreed to buy .erman manufacturers some expertise before rolling out the model three. tokyo -- toyota raises its forecast. sayspec secretary-general and lamenting the agreement is paramount to stabilizing oil prices.
members to trim output. >> this will accelerate the top-drawer down we have seen. forces inforth the order to restore the stability on a sustainable basis. week,: earlier this russia is also on board with the cutbacks. france''s third-largest bank posted third-quarter profit that doubled from a year ago. the bank said bond income surged. a pledge that its dividend will not be cut next year. the british department store plans to shut down after -- outlets in the u.k. and overseas. 60 stores will be closed over five years.
also 53 stores will be closed outside the country. predecessorof his years.e tries to reverse u.k.,ng the way in the -- in addition to pound, they have been squeezed by inflation and commodities like cocoa butter and sugar. -- and sugar. asking shareholders to change its name. , dirtyvil war soldiers harry wants to be called american outdoor brands. investors will vote next month. the name change affects only the holding companies. the gun will still carry the name.
electrico automate the car manufacturing. the company is buying the leader in automation -- engineering an technician jobs in germany over the next two years and to build its model three car. 20%hina, car sales soared in october. he for a tax cut expired at the end of the year. the chinese government has said they may extend the tax break. toyota has raised its profit forecast for the fiscal year. it has not risen as much as the predicted.ad a great from the sales slowdown threatening its position as the world's top seller. time now for the bloomberg quick take. pollsters have had a rough few years and pulling has never exactly been an exact science.
>> brexit polls. >> the pollsters have got it wrong again. >> the u.s. congressional election polls. >> where did the democrats in white house get this wrong? >> scotland, wrong, wrong, and wrong. in any election year, if you watch cable news, >> will at least according to a poll. even take ap at donald trump's twitter feed, polls are referenced as if they are gospel. every ponies to be taken as a grain of salt. pulling is not an exact science and can in many cases lead to incorrect results. scientific polling started with one man in 1932. poll for hisa mother-in-law who was running to be secretary of iowa. his pulling was asked her and she won. still got some predictions
wrong. remember this headline? one of the biggest election headline blunders of all time was the result of incorrect including gallup's. metrics were refined to become more at it and then pulls grew exponentially. today, you go, reuters, even yours truly, bloomberg. the list goes on and on. it gets harder and harder to trust their accuracy. one reason is the cell phone to her because of a ban on cell phone auto dialing, all calls to cell phones must be made manually. not only time-consuming but expensive. also, anyone receiving the call the cell can see who is calling. they may not answer the postal -- poll -- pollster's call. in 2012, 9%. the lower sponsor eight means it is harder to get accurate response rates so analysts are more likely to trust aggregations of polls like those
created by 538, real clear politics, as they do not just focus on one poll. here is the argument. given the doubts about the accuracy of polls, pundits and politics may feel free to skew the narrative as they want. that leads to exchanges like this. >> you are down. >> says who? >> polls, most of them. all of them? >> polls say more time is needed , with the afro -- actual demographic of the little of voters on election day. the justification that more people might vote if they did not think the results were preordained. vonnie: you can read more about pulling on bloomberg. head to bloomberg.com for more. coming up, three election season charts with joe weisenthal. you do not want to miss it. that is next. do not miss it.
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets and i am vonnie quinn. election day in america finally. joe weisenthal. we look at the election a few which way. why not look at charts to explain. joe: there is an infinite number of ways to slice it. if we could bring up the first one, a chart shows a first position. etf, a lot of people are using this clearly to hedge. clearly that mexican assets are sensitive to the election for obvious reasons we have all discussed one million
times. down, aho look to hedge lot of short interests. as it ishis is even strengthening of the last few days. >> that is my next chart tells the opposite story. this is the flow into the same etf. you can look at my bloomberg terminal. this chart from ietf guru. it shows there have been huge slows into the same etf. that you do not just look at one single indicator. you can say people are betting against mexico and people are nervous against trump. or people are optimistic about clinton. ,hese are single indicators assets used for hedging purposes or something.
on the surface, they can say different things that they may be used for different purposes. the beauty is it is a perfectly good vehicle for someone who wants to go along or short. at the same time, you have a lot of inflows. vonnie: i love this mexico trade. looking at the fundamentals of the mexican economy? joe: no. i think after today mexican assets will go back to trading on fundamentals. -- now, it is a simple verse perception of how traders are using. vonnie: 3% unemployment and 4%. what else have you got? joe: a look at 10 year yields, this is one of the big questions out there. markets, likeock clinton won her odds improved, they went up. the 10 year yield is more ambiguous. there is not an obvious pattern.
it is part of the fact that in theory, if trump or two and, you would probably get a bout of risk off, people selling risk positions and buying safe haven assets and government wants. there is an argument to be made that under a trump presidency, long-term, more tax cuts, fiscal spending, and so forth. we should pay attention to what happens in the 10 year. a far more ambiguous signal being sent about what that result would mean. it is something to keep an eye on. hyman was telling us about the handle. joe: people do not know. i do not think there is much consensus. the one-year chart is still a lot lower than it was this time last year. phenomenal chart, actually.
joe weisenthal, always illuminating. have a look at his chart. thank you for joining. still ahead, polls and just about five hours, we will keep you updated on all of the breaking election news you need to know. of course, all of the market news. major industries are higher in holding onto their gains. the dow is up point 75%. -- .75%. the nasdaq is up. is below 18. the dollar-yen is at 10510. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we are covering stories today from washington dc, to berlin this hour. tumultuousg and campaign season, election day is already here. early voters casting a record 4.6 million dallas. we get a look at undecided voters in the key ballot states. and the german deputy finance minister ways and on the german economy in an exclusive interview with bloomberg. we are halfway into the u.s. trading session now. a bit topsy-turvy. here with the .atest
julie: we see them bouncing lower,because they open definitely coming off of the gains we have seen yesterday. we then saw a turnaround really. there are turnarounds or attempts at assessing turnout. stocks are now red around the highs of the session. that makes for a two-day gain in the s&p 500. we have not seen a back-to-back gain since october. the big two-day gain, almost 3%. that means a recouping of the losses we saw during a nine day losing streak. you can see that stocks have really climbed back from earlier lows. a lot of people continue to watch the polls. you heard vonnie talking about the state-by-state numbers. there are a lot of ways for you to try this if you are a bloomberg user.
4731, this looks at the polls in various states and the probability that hillary clinton will win them in contested states, ohio, iowa, nevada. ticking up to some extent in recent days. of the chart, the overall probability of hillary clinton winning. again, we have seen clinton picking up in many of these polls and that has been feeling some of -- some of the -- of the buying we are seeing in stocks. stock,bviously, a big contribute to gains. ireland looks like it is hailing the tax situation back, and it looks like that could be positive for apple priceline with a record today after the company had earnings that beat estimates. gaminghat and comcast
some ground in the session. we're watching potential speculation around m&a having to stocks,consumers kellogg's, general mills, all higher after the brazilian affiliate of the wall street 3g capital ofing brazil is seeking a $.10 billion for a new fund and acquisition. they are citing people familiar with this situation. some of these are those that have been named in the past for -- asich already owns well as restaurant programs. vonnie: very comprehensive and a lot is going on in spite of voting and everything else. crumpton has more from the newsroom. mark: a bitter campaign is over and now millions of americans are selecting the next president. the lines are long in some places and shorter in others.
50 million voters avoided the crowds altogether by casting their ballots early. donald trump voted in new york city and waved before entering the polling place. voted at anton elementary school near her home in new york. she called it a humbling feeling to vote for herself for president. some voters are going from the polls to a cemetery in upstate new york to pay tribute to the women's suffrage leader susan b anthony. cnet mount hope cemetery decorating the grave with i voted stickers and american fights. the cemetery has extended its visiting hours to 9:00 p.m. today to allow for more election day visitors. authorities have identified a the possible organizer of deadly islamic state attacks on paris and brussels over the past year. investigators say there is evidence it is the real identity of a block med, a pseudonym of
the suspected attack coordinator. his whereabouts are unknown. the same terrorist is likely behind both attacks, which together killed 162 people. party -- africa ruling ruling party leadership is again anlying around -- after implication in may have allowed it -- close friend -- close friends to influence state contracts. introduced a motion of no-confidence and it will be debated on thursday. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thanks. let's continue with the biggest story, the u.s. election. it is now up for the voters to decide. now, alix, thank you
for joining us. between 46 million and 50 million early ballots. i do not know how many more million people are voting. a few hours left, they are all in line, is that true? it is might have noticed a beautiful day outside and people are not bothered by the weather as they go to the polls. usually heavy turnout favors democrats in presidential elections, just to know. heard there are lines in many polling places. you are happy to wait a minute? happyo not know how anyone is about the election. but people are doing their civic duty. they will be patient and wait and cast their votes and be satisfied. vonnie: we just heard julie hyman talk about a chart which shows the bloomberg probability of clinton winning in some battleground states. florida is 67% and north carolina, 59. we do that pretty early. this race could be over by 7:00
tonight. >> my own thinking is that it will be over early. she will probably win nevada. the early vote was strong for her. if she wins florida and nevada, it is over. without florida, donald trump has no credible path to the white house. vonnie: we think we know what is going on m&a come along and say, you do not know what is going on here donald trump does not have their vote. vote and whyecret did it go up on twitter? >> i love this story. last night, donald trump said he had the sport of tom brady, the patriots are back and belichick. belichick did write him a letter in support but we do not know about tom brady. his life today set on instagram that the couple is not in favor of him. anre has long been assumption among trump people that there is a secret wealth of support for trump in the country.
that is not being tested by pollsters. is a funny idea. during the primaries, trump was very supportive of the polls and they all showed him winning. he thought they were right on mark during the primaries. the general election showed him losing and all of a sudden, the polls are wrong or they are not asking questions to the right people. we will see what happens but it seems unlikely that there are a lot of so-called secret trump supporters out there. areie: as much as there secret trump supporters, there have to be secret hillary supporters in the country as well. >> sure. i think the thinking here is there are people not comfortable telling pollsters that they support donald trump but when they get into the privacy of the voting booth, they will pull the level -- hold the lever for him. whereas people supporting hillary clinton probably are not as uncomfortable. vonnie: it depends on your geography.
>> if you are in texas or oklahoma, you might want to keep your hillary clinton support on the down low. vonnie: in terms of congressional races and down ballots? a i think the fbi disclosure week ago probably heard them badly in congressional races and the chances of taking the senate are significantly less. new hampshire is a good spot for a takeover still. ohio looks out of reach for them. illinois, wisconsin is another one. i will not ask you who you want in the white house. you will do your job either way. white house editor alex len, thank you. tune in later for a special election coverage. all ---hour edition of of with all due our coverage continues with david gura and megan murphy.
the apple decision was the biggest ever state aid demand. the company's's biggest business is dragged down by advertising revenue. first-quarter revenue beat estimates but is still down from a year ago. , 5% led by aunit double-digit drop in advertisement sales. providing financial news and services. traitor -- a t todayaccused in chicago that appearance is been delayed until tomorrow. to avoidar-long battle extradition from the u.k..
prosecutors blame him in part for a frenzy that recently wiped out almost one chilean dollars from u.s. equity. is your latest bloomberg business flash. we turned back to the election once again and this time, the economic implications. paul krugman laid -- weighed in on donald trump earlier this month. have a listen to what he had to say. paul: i do not think there is trumponomics. it is all about dominance. there is no coherent doctrine. concrete policy proposals, they are standard republican stuff. slash taxes on rich people and believe that wonderful things will happen. vonnie: what will it mean for policies in congress? trumponomics that is
different from standard gop economics? kuester is in a limited sense in that it involves a lot of rejection of institutions, of common thinking about economics, rejection of expertise, and as a result, you will not have anything to hold onto, as you weighed into a drum -- a trump presidency. investment would fall relative to what they would have been an investment might not fall out right but it would be weaker vonnie: because of his trade policies. vonnie: i will be devils advocate since he is not here. his advisers would probably disagree with you i am thinking. >> they would be wrong. it is as simple as that. if you look at what markets are doing, each time trump is doing better, equity values fall. when trump is doing worse, equity values rise.
those people will make investment and business decisions. whatever his advisers say, we have evidence that investment will pull back under the uncertainty that is unclear policies would create. says, there is nothing new in his policies. it is implications. -- implantation. relative to what we see now, very likely because there will be clarity. not because of her policies necessarily but because we will have a very conventional politician in the presidency. role does how to deal with a conventional politician. say we have a conventional politician in the polls and there is not gridlock but the status cuomo. race theirs decisions on? demand? about will learn more
where demand will be after the negotiations begin. under budget currently, the event of sequestration will be greater on military spending than the rest of the budget. tonton seems willing negotiate over sequestration. liftlicans are either to sequestration on military spending but they wanted paid for out of the social side of the budget. clinton will not. do something about sequestration, that would probably be good for spending. if there is no deal, military services will not do any better than they did under the late obama administration. if there is a deal, the military industry will probably do better. that is one example but there are others. vonnie: what about manufacturing? >> that is a bunch of nonsense.
no one is bringing manufacturing jobs back. vonnie: creating jobs. let's put it that way. >> that is nonsense. vonnie: she is lying when she says that? economist.ot an two politicians lie when they promised things they cannot produce. maybe, maybe not. she is wrong. she will not bring back manufacturing jobs. -- will donald trump further a manufacturing base or no? >> the current manufacturing in the current economic view. if you check that up and say manufacturing effort will no longer be available or available at a higher cost, investment there will fall. probably less manufacturing at least in the early years. so far the outlook is pretty grim under either president. can you give us silver linings?
>> the outlook is grim for what they have said they will do. not for the economy. isnie: the next president irrelevant. the executive branch it has limited powers anyway and the economy will keep going. economy may keep rolling. there may be a recession but the odds are not particularly high right now. presidents do matter. there are ways in which president's matter. hillary clinton is a conventional politician. a conventional politician will not upset most. she will try to raise pay for parts of the labor market. she will probably try to raise taxes. the cooperation of congress. she will not have it unless she has a good day today. disappear.s equal pay issues, executive power. by and large, the effect is not
as great as they claim, of presidents. 1.9%. vonnie: under either trunk or clinton? >> no. lower under trump. vonnie: all right. kevin, thank you and come back once we have a president. a programming note, tune in later for our election coverage that starts at 5:00 eastern for a two-hour special of with all due respect. eastern, our coverage continues posted by david gura. risinghead, shares are but our investors overlooking the $941 million right down of opentable? we will discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: priceline is trading at a record. third-quarter profit and revenue . investors are turning a blind eye burning down the value of the restaurant service by more than one third. more, we're joined by cory johnson from san francisco. why might investors be overlooking this? >> taking a billion dollars right off and admitting the giant acquisition of opentable is a dud. you would think that would affect the shares greatly but the rest are firing on all cylinders. despite the sales acquisition, a squandering of at least $1 billion, and that is so far, because it could get worse, priceline, whether mobile devices or online, booking
flights, adding rooms, hotel and asking rental cars. the business is doing quite well particularly in europe despite the $941 million write-down. vonnie: i am tempted to suggest it might be advertising and william shatner. not even being funny, opentable was just -- in my memory. manycts booking so reservations. every company should do it, which is the day they release earnings, release all the details. -- ane even release president actually put as all of the information out there in a press release and the additional information on that day, and they explain in a little more detail what was going on at opentable. i pulled a quote from the filing where they said, look,
opentable's are premised on the significant expansion and it has resulted in limited progress. they are saying opentable was a failure. the notion was that opentable would grow to all of the cities in europe and the way they were able to at hotels in europe. into,oblem opentable ran the primary cities in washington, d.c., and boston and new york and san francisco and los angeles, you need an opentable to secure a reservation of popular restaurants. if you go to the second and third tier, go to des moines and cedar rapids, you may not have the same demand with restaurants. europe could pump the markets but it did not result in the same kind of growth. vonnie: you could say the same about hotels. restaurant,ble or a
in a hotel over mccann. >> what you see in the hotel , there are two things. in hotel, you cannot control capacity like you do on the airplane. they're terrific at low management. fundamentally, restaurants hold price. bookings really drive the stock and those numbers are getting better and better with every quarter. will be able to hear cory johnson again on bloomberg radio. tune in and about 30 minutes. next, exclusively from germany's deputy finance insight on the election, brexit, and deutsche bank woes. mrs. bloomberg. ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪
you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. i've spent my life planting a size-six, non-slip shoe into that door. on this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. but these days it's phones before forks. they want wifi out here. but behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. wifi pro from comcast business. public wifi for your customers. private wifi for your business. strong and secure. good for a door. and a network. comcast business. built for security. built for business. vonnie: live, i am vonnie quinn quinn. this is bloomberg markets.
mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. trump's campaign filed a lawsuit in las vegas alleging the early voting polls were kept open two hours beyond closing time. that is according to a cnn reporter on twitter. 53% of nevada's 1.5 million active registered voters have already used early voting or cast aston t ballots -- acton -boy- --on t ballots absentee that -- ballots. donald trump that nearly 25%. those -- the citizens are , the votes do not count because quan has no representation in the electoral college. volunteers in denver collected ballots from bicyclists. nearly 2 billion people already voted as of monday. everyone house -- everyone else
has until this evening to cast their ballots at it voting center. president obama continued his election day tradition of playing basketball with friends. the game was held at the gym and washington. in 2012, the present passes teammates included former chicago bulls player scottie pippen. his first election day game was 2008. global news 24 hours a day powered by 20 -- 120 600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: in europe, another political battle in germany. lining up to be an historic one for the largest economy. with the caught up definitely finance minister for his take on key issues facing the u.s. and german races.
question both presidencies, we need to talk about our common approach when it comes to free trade. we obviously have to discuss it. it part of the campaign and the u.s. wequestion both presidencies, we need to talk about our common approach when it comes to free see in the neighborhood of europe, if it is syria and russia and the ukraine, we do have a common task to fulfill. so we need to talk about how much for example the u.s. wants to engage in the future, in europe and in the neighborhood of europe. we have many issues to talk about, trauma or clinton. mark: some say deutsche bank might prefer a clinton presidency. they say under a trust administration, he might be less willing to come to some sort of favorable conclusion to these talks. does it mean it would be better to reach this before the election?
>> as far as i understood it until now, this was a nonpolitical process. with deutsche bank and the u.s. foreign policies. and it will remain a nonpolitical process and they talk about the issues they need to talk about and they will find a nonpolitical sentiment, something that has to do with issues there. mark: with many investors questioning deutsche bank's capital levels, are you feeling of the about you come negotiations, the settlement talks? >> i have trust in the , andiations on both sides that they are talking about what they are supposed to be talking about. sooner or later, we will find the results but you understand i do not go into detail right now.
mark: of course. i do respect that. we will smoothly move on to brexit. of the high court rules last week, the ruling essentially ensures at least until the supreme court makes its ruling, that theresa may have to get the approval of she cannt before trigger article 50. how much do you think this could delay the triggering of article 50? depends on a possible debate in parliament of the u.k. halon that will take. but we expect is the process starts sooner than later. i would prefer sooner. what is really the problem is the uncertainty for both sides. the union as well as united kingdom. certainty is never good for growth or the economy. soon thisstart process. i totally understand that this
theto be fixed out within institutional setting in the u.k. and now the parliament obviously have a say in it and we will see what it says. vonnie: deputy finance minister of germany speaking earlier. with the u.s. election day finally here, november 8, it was this morning and will be this evening. the question everyone's my just how this affects the markets. in theks that would fill opportunity. >> i think there would be a short run selloff, pretty severe. that will go against market expectations. we know uncertainty is not welcome. if trump or to be elected, i would especially give big -- i would expect a big spike on equity market. that is an opportunity.
one thing to remember is neither candidate is a marxist cory hugo chavez socialist. you know they will all basically believe in free markets. we are not going into a very severe direction. in the short run, definitely. yesterday, happened when clinton's odds when a after so, thatestatement, would be said -- very severe. up for grabs, they may not know in 24 hours actually by this time, tomorrow, i think that is the one that has the markets more on edge right now. >> we hear that a lot.
would the aar why buying opportunity fundamentally from across asset perspective as well. supportive of the story, the idea that they would fuel equities? all, there is a question, if trump is elected, behind have congress him? i would say no. some power with executive orders on trade but orlaterally, dismantle nafta many of the trade agreements, you have to go to congress, which will be very moderating and very skeptical. certain,y, it appears if he should get an upset -- wouldvictory, the senate be republican and the house is
expected to be republican and all three would then be republican. he is certainly not going to get a carte blanche on his policies. there is a lot of nervousness abroad. we saw that as a brexit. actually fueled the ftse, because the competitive decision of the u.k. industries actually improved. if the dow declines, that is not bad for u.s. docs at all. if the gop controls congress, lowered capital taxes in the long run, and a break on his not seeical plans, i do it as a disaster about the economy. clinton has made specific proposals about how to have a longer-term vision for
corporate america. capital gains tax chop -- changing that, you have to hold at six years to get down to 20% rather than just one year. with thoseeffects have on the stock market? thee should first ask section in active and the republican congress. 10 to one against right now, extremely improbable. there is no way clinton passes policies on taxes can ever be had. vonnie: speaking bloomberg markets. will america elect hillary clinton, the nation's first female commander in chief, or will the nation choose businessman donald trump for the
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets p let's head to julie hyman. several charts. one election. chart our in-house guru's, one thing she is looking at is the unemployment rate in the united states and whether it determiningve power who the election will be. we looked at times of rising on employment rate and what that
meant was the election to argue usually saw the opposition party one office when rising unemployment rates when the line was going up, you see red slip into blue or vice versa. another is gdp growth here. lines, the average all the way to 80's. it does not look like there is that clear of a trend. thoughtic or republican, as we know, during the latest administration, we have seen below average sheet p growth coming out of the recession. same kindt seen the of company. what we have here is the story
for my title getting cut off. the s&p 500 coverage. rising moore under democratic administration. the average annual gain is of them.r both if you go back to 1945, the s&p 500 average annual game -- gain is 9.5. there has been an average annual gain both cases under democrats, it has been higher. look beginning a year after the beginning of the new administration. a couple different ways to slice it here. you can access all of the stress on the bloomberg chart library. there is quite a broad array of different tries to look at. many of them are election related. vonnie: thank you. at some of the
biggest business stories in the news right now. the company behind those popular high-end jackets have chosen back to navigate their plans a point to people familiar with the matter. they say credit suites, the canadian bank of commerce, and goldman sachs. sales could happen in 2017. seek a $1 billion valuation. more bad news. pharmaceuticals cutting its annual forecast after posting a third-quarter loss. the canadian drugmaker to write down about -- the value of some of its businesses. u.s..rug prices in the that sent its stock price down over 90%. to sue. supreme court banks for perjury lending
practices. arguments -- wells fargo, bank of america, pursued a decades long pattern of targeting afghan american and hispanic borrowers for riskier loans. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. despite the industry facing heavy criticism for middling performance, there has been a bright spot in alternative investors. that is canada. canadian hedge funds are morphing the returns, county only not -- almost nine times in september. for more, allison joins us live from toronto. how is this happening? is essentially, we benefit in this case from our size. the canadian hedge fund industry
has about 35 billion canadian dollars in assets under management. industry,the global which is 3 trillion u.s. dollars. what it means is there is a less amount of capital in canada chasing more opportunities, which has allowed some of the smaller in atlanta to get the awards when they need them. vonnie: we do here that complaint that beyond a certain size, it is impossible to achieve, better than average returns. wonder whether that plays more of a role in the sense that, where does the money go that does not go to hedge fund then? it is not like canada is a much less wealthy country. >> it is interesting. depending on who you talk to, there are different funds using different strategies. one fund we spoke to has been chasing opportunities created in the market. another hedge fund that really benefited over the past year by de-risking the portfolio had big
events like the brexit, they went into the five-year canadian government bonds then back into corporate bonds in the selloff after brexit. another hedge fund has made a ind return on investment restructured companies, getting in when they are trading at $.40 on the dollar and turning the company around. a lot of space in the canadian market. it is hard to make money in several different strategies. vonnie: you talk in one of your stories about capital. talk about the hedge fund and what it did. >> yes. it is a rather small hedge fund. again, the strategy is really to play it safe when it comes to rest. they said heading into brexit, the stock market had rallied here at all the financial markets had rallied in anticipation the u.k. would vote to stay in the european union. there's not much more upside in
the market here so instead, we will take a defense position, and in the event there is a vote to leave, we can snap up portrait -- corporate bonds while still protecting the portfolio. vonnie: we are seeing them in the u.s. i am sure there are some withdrawals in with -- in canada as well. >> it is not the same extent. i put that to people in the market and said, are there concerns with investors not getting the performances they say. because the industry is so young and so small here, we have not thaty gotten the size and is coming and concerned so far. vonnie: we wish continued success. thank you for that report. if you thought this election has been a roller coaster, get ready for the whiplash to follow.
they spoke to allison hoffman. >> we realized we could do it before the election because the election has been happening through the middle of october. early october starts in mid to early to mid october. 22 billion people have actually already voted. the election is already happening. we sent photographers to five swing states. four swing states and one newly contested state, utah as well. voters are there who are predominantly mormon and have a trump.hard time with voterssich and bernie
now have a new choice to make. contentious election, how difficult was it to get people on the street to let you take the photograph and say yes, i will let you take my face. the north carolina people, in north carolina, the black churches had been running a sunday march to pull's. after services, they take everyone right out of church pews and march right to the nearest polling station. went right to charlotte. the photographer went to services and march with a group and they are heavily clinton supporters. he did talk to other people who did not come to that group and enough he found someone who is proud to say they were a chill stein voter. >> -- what about nevada?
>> you have an interesting situation. they voted for president obama twice and had a democratic senator, harry reid, retiring from his seat. that is the scene of incredible amounts of spending in the senate race. they really want to grab the senate seat and you had a real mix of people coming out there and we went to voters all over las vegas and even there, again, a woman retired from las vegas to new york and she voted for reagan and voted for republicans in the past but not this time, she was voting for hillary. it was interesting to see people who were proud to tell us what they were doing. they were voting early because they wanted to make sure the vote happened and got counted and they are happy to tell us about their choices. read the entire story in the latest bloomberg businessweek. hear more of the magazine's reporters every sunday on bloomberg television. just hours left in the day to
vote, bloomberg television will have all of your election coverage. starting 5:00 p.m. eastern, a two hour special. then, from 7:00 p.m. eastern, tune in with our special withion coverage washington bureau chief megan murphy. with just about two hours left in the market day, we seeing stocks off just a little bit. about half of 1%, 11 points. the vix is just above the index, approaching in 98. the yen at 10514 right now. at 1.86%.r is this is bloomberg. ♪
welcome to "bloomberg markets." we are live from bloomberg wrote headquarters in midtown manhattan for the next hour covering stories from washington to london and guam this afternoon. here is what we're watching. after campaigning for more than a year, voting is underway and polls will begin to close in less than five hours. we will bring you the latest politicsbloomberg team. oil on a wild ride swinging between gains and losses ahead of opec warning on instability in the market if there is not a deal on output. and former cftc commissioner bart chilton joins us. while it's not looking likely, he tells us what a trump presidency would be exceedingly harmful to the markets.
the markets close in two hours. that's good to julie hyman with the latest on equities. presidency would be exceedingly harmful to the markets. julie: i'm excited to hear about what is happening in guam. matt: i will check to see if they have electronic results. julie: stocks close to highs of the session, remember, opened lower and then rose on optimism about some early voting coming out and a potential hillary clinton presidency. inhave seen stocks moving tandem with her leads in the polls. the gains today on the back of yesterday means that over the past few days we have seen the , 80500 rise by 2.75% biggest two-day gain since june, and a year in which these streets have become less common. a went into yesterday with losing streak on the major averages. we have also seen not just the direction of stocks today but also the breath of gains. we were seeing much more of a mixed picture. now we are seeing things
improve. even within the groups in the of, there has been a lot zigzagging. health care started at the .ottom, now close to the middle there has been some volatility over the course of the session within these individual groups. utilities has been consistently one of the top performers today. speaking of volatility, we are seeing in a little lower today. we are still seeing some hedging on heading into the election, as one might expect. we have also been watching other kinds of safety trades, so to speak. we have seen the dollar rise against the japanese yen. on heading into the election, as one might expect. the yen had been gaining during that losing streak for u.s. stocks. 05.10 four seeing 1 the dollar versus the yen. gold has had quite a wild ride today.
it's spiked earlier today after some headlines out of india, that they are getting rid of the two highest the nomination currencies in an effort to stamp out corruption. we saw gold rise on that and then come down again after we saw stocks rise today. now off of about 1%. now traders are trying to read the tea leaves in different ways as the session has gone on. we will not get a definitive answer until later today at the earliest. scarlet: when the exit poll start to come in, thank you. matt: i have an answer on guam. scarlet:they don't have any vote electoral college because people are not allowed to vote for president, but they are american citizens there, i believe .2,000, who sent in their votes
15-hour time difference. they sent those results in. i believe mark crumpton will tell us about that. scarlet: it is a dts. following one of the most bitter and divisive campaigns in history, americans are headed to the polls. many avoid today's lines with as many as 50 million people casting early ballots. polls show hillary clinton with a narrow lead. she and bill clinton voted near their home in chappaqua, new york. public and donald trump voted here in manhattan earlier. he told fox news he does not trust opinion polls some of which he says are deliberately inaccurate. his campaign has filed a lawsuit in las vegas alleging that early voting polls were kept open to hours past closing he would his campaign says ballots and voting machines involved should be set aside pending any challenge to the election results.
nearly 53% of nevada's 1.5 million active registered voters cast early or absentee ballots. british prime minister theresa may says she will work to strengthen the relationship with no matter whotes wins the presidential election. she told sky news she will call the president-elect as soon as possible. on sunday, she said she wished the presidential race had been and measured. the united nations human rights office says nearly 300 people have been undaunted by islamic state near basel. says theofficial citizens were targeted because there were former members of the iraq security force. sheiks on that 18 have been killed. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. matt: thanks very much. let's get back to the big story. the u.s. presidential election.
spokeoomberg markets team with austan goolsbee, economic professor at the university of chicago. he is supporting hillary clinton. we asked him if the campaign had been too divisive for the nation. has been horrible. this is the most bitter campaign of our lifetimes. we have seen bitter campaigns in our lifetimes. hopefully, we can get past it. >> what will be the outcome, apart from the actual result, from tomorrow on word, is this still a country very much divided? >> on some things, for sure. i just hope with the election over, we will come into a new administration. usually when things happen in washington, when they reach compromise, when they do deals at the beginning of an administration, and then the last six years or whatever
people argue, handwringing about the dysfunction. i am hopeful that hillary clinton wins. would be a far better president than president trump would. if she does when, who knows who will control the senate. almost certainly republicans will control the house. will have to agree with each other, they will have to come together and try to solve the problems of the country. i am hopeful that on something we will be able to. hillary'shat you know policy better than donald trump, what would her priorities be in her first 100 days? she think the stuff that has talked about the most would be the things she is likely to do. , probablyture something on education and training. she would move for immigration reform and she would try to
raise taxes on high income people. those have been a lot of the main economic factors within her campaign. >> that is a lot for the first 100 days, how many of them are doable? she talks about bringing good manufacturing jobs back to the rust belt, midwest. how doable is that? >> in 100 days, it is not a magic wand that she will fix it all in 100 days, but in the first 200 days, let's call it, if they could reach some sort of agreement with the congressional republicans, we certainly saw the first 200 days of the obama administration. they did a lot. republican do not like what he did, democrats do, but they were able to do a lot. i think we should keep our eyes open for the possibility of people doing these deals at the
beginning of an administration. >> given the split in the gop, it is a very fractured party. if clinton wins, who does she reject two, who becomes her ally on that side of the table? >> it is a little hard to say. you would think, in a weird way, the traditional republicans, conservatives -- social conservatives, not the trumpian tea party type. but you have seen them get a little nervous because they did at know of what seemed like populist fringe inside the republican party was as big as it was. that trump got the nomination has them nervous. i'm not saying there is a low degree of difficulty in finding people to do these agreements with, i just think, once the fever breaks and it becomes
clear that donald trump is the is not a majority of the country that supports his ideas, i think you will start to see some movement from republicans to try to put this behind them and never speak it up again. >> you said there will be a clear mandate after today? >> i think there's the possibility of a pretty clear mandate. , who is the next speaker of the house? ryan, butld be paul clearly, he will have a hard time because his more moderate members will be the ones that will be defeated, if they are getting defeated. that one is anyone's guess. goolsbee from the university of chicago talking with the bloomberg markets team. tune in tonight for our special election coverage. it kicks off at 5:00 eastern
with a two-hour edition of "with all due respect." then at 7:00, we begin our election 2016 coverage with david gura an megan murphy. although we will be covering the election from now until then, those are two special programming highlights you should put on your calendar and turn on at your election party tonight. are you going to an election party? scarlet: i am not. i had to drive people to their sports activities. stocksup, the latest on aftering valeant, management cut the company's profit forecast and suggestions are could be more bad news on the way. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm scarlet fu. matt: i'm matt miller. we have some breaking news on ups. a company with earnings going the other way. scarlet: a bit of a long-term projection. 2019 up 5% andg adjusted shares up anywhere from 9% to 13%. the stock is getting a bit of a lift, up by 2%. matt: we had a number of stocks today crushed because executives with the other way and cut forward guidance. scarlet: valeant pharmaceuticals among them. let's get to abigail doolittle who is watching other winners and losers. >> speaking of valeant pharmaceuticals, this is one that we are looking at, the worst performer in the s&p 500 global 1200 health care index,
this after the company missed third-quarter estimates and cut the full your forecast. there is new management in place and some wonder if this is the company setting the bar low, but analysts say this is the third time it has happened, so it's unlikely this is the case. probably more of a continuation of the issues that have plagued this company over the last year, down 85%. not comforting is the fact that the ceo said or surprises could be on the way. on the day, winner free port mapper ran are nicely higher. on a record 12-day rally, having its best year since 2010. ,ut if we go into the bloomberg this is a longer-term chart of copper in orange, freeport in blue. as copper is trading higher this year, it is still below the long-term downtrend. unless that can be broken, it
matt: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm matt miller. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. let's get back to our top stories, which is election day in the u.s. both candidates are making their final pitches after a long hard-fought campaign. for a final look at the polls, let's turn it over to carol massar and cory johnson. carol: welcome everyone on bloomberg tv. bring in doug usher, managing partner at purple insights. he's been conducting a lot of polls for us here at bloomberg. nice to have you here.
what should we be watching as the polestar to close? >> thanks for having me. first of all, you will see some returns from some key states. florida and north carolina right off the bat. those are must win state for trump. it hillary shows a good lead in those early on, that is trouble for him. at the same time, you will see results from pennsylvania. it looks like trump is getting close in that election, you will start to see things tighten up pretty quickly. florida historically does not have a history of giving us results weekly or accurately. the earlyked at results last time around, you would've thought romney was doing well. of course, there was the famed hanging chad. should we expect anything different from florida? >> i don't think so. , ane hear from florida
early call, that will be a huge sign. cory: don't believe it. we have heard early calls in each of the last elections -- three of the last four, and they have been wrong. is fair. that is why you should look at north carolina which is a must win state for trump. if pennsylvania goes his way, that could show momentum. after that, look at the so-called blue wall, the way that the clinton campaign has set up the way that she cannot lose, michigan and wisconsin. startse starts -- states to look toward trump, we will have a long evening. carol: there is so much on social media and we will be talking with a guest later on where they are encouraging voters to take video at the polls and then broadcasting it. there is a lot more involvement by just the average voter. so much more information out there earlier. can thatmore dangerous
be, impacting people at the polls. ? >> unfortunately, eric trump w by taking a picture of his ballot at the polls. cory: what did he do? >> he posted a picture of his ballot, which is punishable by a $1000 fine. carol: i think justin timberlake did that as well. >> one of the things you have to be careful of -- and this is true ever since i've been doing polling since the early 1990's. people give you information during the day. the lines are really long in the family -- in the heavily democratic district. you have to use that with caution. an danger comes, if we have election that is one-sided one way or the other and people start getting angry and say the early calls are false. i would say trust the information after the polls close. before that, it is a lot of noise. some onlinee
outlets who say they will break with the tradition which is not releasing numbers before a states call, putting out numbers with early results even while the polls are still open. i wonder what your take is on that. and the other lovely to look at it would be, people can handle the information and will vote either way. but there is a reverse argument as well. a footballt it as game people we are in the two-minute warning now. we don't know what's going on on the field. polling all the way up to this last period, and now the tvs are turned off. all of this information is just noise. of course, people can handle the information. the problem is that everyone now has their own personal scoreboard. when the final whistle blows and the actual score comes on, and hope that everyone can accept the results. carol: let's go back to polling and with brexit. we all assumed a certain outcomes and were shocked. what has been -- there has been
so much different about this election season -- but what has been different in your polling process, what have you had to adapt to? >> we have moved more to online polling. bloomberg was at the vanguard of that in the industry. landline polling has become a serious problem. when you think about the predictability that polls have done in the u.s., they have done an exceptionally good job across the primaries. as opposed to brexit, where there was a lot of momentum in both directions at the end, you see a lot of consistency now. i will not go out there on a limb and say, i spoke to republican and democratic pollsters. polling that the indicates that hillary has a high probability of winning. if she loses, that would be a shock, bigger than brexit when it comes to the polling. cory: so how important is it to get out the vote, which is a massacre physics -- massive
physical undertaking, people knocking on doors to get them to polling places. >> we have always wondered what would happen if one side invested heavily on the get out the vote and the other invested less heavily. typically you would expect that to be worth about two or three points, but if trump over performs, a lot of us need to think about what get out the vote means. you see reports during the day, from nevada, that indicate probably hillary has an advantage in a few swing states in terms of getting out the vote, but trump has done pretty well in north carolina and florida, in terms of the voters that are coming. getting the voters to the polls is an important piece, but this year, it will be a good experience to see how important it is. a fascinatingly process and campaign to watch. doug, thank you so much. doug usher from purple
strategies based in washington, d.c. back to you guys. scarlet: thank you so much. you can catch more of those interviews on sirius xm, bloomberg.com, and on your bloomberg. with hours before the polls close, take a look at how markets are trading. we had opened higher, pretty much holding near those gains as we count down to the polls being closed. , we had nineo this straight days of losses in the s&p 500. 3.1%s not a big drop, a drop during that period, -- but now we have a big gain, back to back. scarlet: the issue here is, for spoke&p 500, -- we stuc with dan clifton yesterday, elections, --
scarlet: i noticed something this morning. noticed -- actually, this is good for joe. .mm fell 5% he drags about six cups of coffee before 5:00 a.m. if you look at the price of , it hasyou can see risen so much. isit has fallen a lot but it at a high we have not seen for more than two years. we will stay with the commodity markets in the commodity close, which is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
new york and across commodity classes we have seen less demand for safe havens, and that stems to gold, falling for a second day. meantime, silver is moving in the opposite direction, recovering on mild a man from industrial units. take a look at oil, on a wild ride between gains and losses after yesterday advancing over 2%. right now marginally higher by seven cents. you have an upcoming report that could show u.s. inventories climb to 1.5 million barrels last week, according to a survey of economists. if you look at a six-month view of how crude has been trading, the blue line is wti, the u.s. benchmark. a white line is brent crude, the international benchmark. after a rise up in late september, declines through october, we are still around $45 a barrel once again. the opec secretary-general today warned of prolonged instability in the global oil market if the
cartel and other producers fail to execute on the opec plan to reduce output. the cartel is set to meet at the end of the month, so will be looking for updates. let's get a check on the headlines with first word news and mark crumpton. agentsith secret service in toto, vice presidential nominee and indiana governor rode hence and his wife their bicycles from the governor's mansion to their local polling station. donald trump is favorite to win 11 electoral votes but races for governor and u.s. senate are expected to be close. tim kaine did not let the biggest election of his life get in the way of his regular tuesday routine. after voting at 6:00 in the morning and doing a round of national mourning tv shows, the democratic vice presidential nominees met a group of friends for breakfast at the city diner in richmond. he and his friends try to meet every tuesday a few miles from his home. the u.s. senator and former virginia governor was greeted
with cheers as he walked into the restaurant. hillary clinton has been declared the winner in kuan -- guam. the tiny u.s. island is located west of the international date line. the moreeceived 72% of than 32,000 votes cast. donald trump got 25%. even though the island citizens are american, the votes do not count since kuan has no representation in the electoral college. the earth experience its hottest half decade on record between 2011 and 2015, according to a report by the world meteorological organization, which says the floods, droughts, and storms unleashed by rising temperatures are likely just a prelude to new weather extremes. they say the warming trend may numeroussible for weather episodes, including a drought in east africa between 2010 and 2012 that led to about 258,000 deaths.
global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. matt: thank you for that clarification on guam. polls show hillary clinton with a narrow lead over donald trump nationwide in states that have a look toward college votes number which is a good thing for the markets, according to former cftc chairman bart chilton, who says a trump presidency would be exceedingly harmful to the markets and could drive the economy back to recession. he joins us from little rock, arkansas. thank you for your time today. , note ask, first of all about what a trump victory would mean for markets, since we see polls pointing to a clinton victory. what would a clinton white house mean for the u.s. economy and for our stock markets? >> hey, matt.
bigink a lot of this is into markets already, a clinton victory, not to predispose. that is what markets do, they make educated bets and a look at the polling numbers. markets, as you know, like certainty. what secretary clinton would aing -- it's pretty much known factor, whether it is financial regulation or tax policy or trade policy. people know what is there. while there might be some volatility, which there usually i think,an election, overall, the excelling economy we have seen and you have reported on many times will continue. matt: do you worry about lawsuits, investigations, a country divided, anger in congress? or is that all sort of counterbalanced by our need for gridlock in financial markets? great question.
as somebody who spent 30 years in government, i was there at times when government worked and people did get along together and got things done, both in republican and democrat administrations. i'm optimistic, forever hopeful that we will get it done. part of that depends on what happens in the senate. the house will stay republican, the senate may flip depending on a few states. but i hope folks look at what is best for the country and do not immediately jump into the campaign mode. we saw that last time when president obama was elected. i just hope that is not the case. there is a lot of healing, particularly after this election, a lot of thanks and anger out there. the only way to move forward as a country is to show that gornment can do something positive and work together. whether that is on financial matters or any other policy position. scarlet: we know that it hillary
clinton gets elected, it will of ably be not with much mandate because you will have a republican-controlled house and at the most a slim majority in the senate for democrats. even if donald trump is not elected, which of his ideas may persist and could make their way into a clinton administration, or a republican-controlled congress? ,> that is a great question actually. nobody has asked me that one. i happen to have an answer. it might surprise you. was really unclear about what he would do on a lot of issues. if you go to his website, he has 18 videos whereas secretary clinton has 40 detailed position papers. the wanting he said, he would get rid of dodd-frank. i don't think there would be agreement on that with a split congress. also says he would reinstate glass-steagall, which is a weird thing for a republican to ask
for. that is where you would separate commercial and investment banking. ironically, some of the people who support that our senator sanders, elizabeth warren. i'm not saying it will happen, that glass-steagall will be reinstated, but it's one of the anomalies of this election cycle where you have a republican calling for more regulation in the banking space. matt: another one of those anomalies is that you have a republican here who is a protectionist, against a lot of .ree trade agreements senator sanders has sway secretary clinton to at least voice those positions as well. that -- and back to how do you feel about that as the former head of the cftc -- that we could be going back to an anti-trade era? >> certainly when you see secretary clinton's position on trade authority, where she was less enthusiastic as when she
was a member of the administration. ultimately, secretary clinton, should she be elected, would adhere to the existing agreements, would adhere to our .xisting nato commitments mr. trump has said that that would be in doubt. that is where we started with the markets and having some certainty that there is at least some comfort we will not see some shooting from the hip, as it were, going down the road of a protectionist policy ultimately under a secretary clinton. matt: thank you for your time. we didn't get a chance to talk about the blob, but i love your piece on "business insider." next time. thank you. arelet: republican leaders bracing themselves for a clinton presidency and trying to figure out how to blame dems that shield themselves from blame it trump loses. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm matt miller. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at the biggest stories in the news right now. burton has scored its first major victory against the eu since voting to leave the plot. the eu voted against his offshore territories to be automatically included into a list. you tax matters require approval from all 28 member countries. the u.k. may have blocked the initiative if it did not get its way. smith & wesson is asking permission from shareholders to change its name. now wants to be called american outdoor brands. investors will vote on this next month.
the name change only affects the holding company. the guns will still carry the name smith & wesson. you are worried about that. there's your answer. an interesting story because they make so many other outdoor goods, even though 90% of their revenue comes from gun sales. a want to branch out and that is why they want to change the name. let's get to the markets desk with julie hyman. julie: i'm taking a look at the xlp, the consumer staples etf, gaining half a percent. the gains that this etf is having is in the face of some pretty steep declines for a couple of components within this etf. mainly talking about cvs and walgreens food alliance. walgreens getting pulled done with cvs after that company came in with a forecast for 2016 and
2017 below estimates. among other things, cvs is being affected by a migration from its pharmacies. a structural change for cvs. the company expects to lose more than 40 million retail prescriptions next year because of more restricted pharmacy networks. that is why we are seeing such a tumble in those shares. we are seeing a game in the staple food companies over speculation of m&a. paper,ng to a brazilian 3g capital is seeking a billion dollars to $10 billion for a new fund and an acquisition. in the consumer sector. 3g capital is already an investor in burger king, which rolled into tim hortons, adding times as well. these are some of the company that have been named in the past as possible targets. one interesting stat we pulled out is looking at food inflation
at home versus general food out. food inflation over all is going up, but at home, inflation is actually coming down to some extent. so this could have implications for how people eat, whether they are eating at home or eating out. scarlet: thank you, julie. the bigt's get back to politics story. it's election day here in america. under five hours to go until the polls begin to close. we may know soon who will be the 45th president of the night -- united states. joining us now is sahil kapur. i to have you here in the studio. you are usually in washington. what are you watching, what will give you the signal you need to get an early read on the selection? >> the earliest polls that close tonight are florida, north carolina, and the swing states that matter the most. donald trump needs most -- both of them.
they are somewhat more expendable for hillary clinton because she has more ways to get there and is doing better in states further out west. including midwestern states. definitely looking to see in donald trump can win those states, and what his strength is in the upper midwest, shaken, wisconsin, pennsylvania. these are the states that have a lot of donald trump voters, noncollege educated, former rectory workers that find some solace in his anti-trade, anti-immigration views. has sueddonald trump the county registrar of voters in las vegas. what is going on? >> clark county is usually very democratic. hillary clinton has a big lead in the early votes their, outpacing what president obama got in 2012, which led him to victory. state votele in that early, so that's a big deal. nevada is a state that he needs to win. this lawsuit is alleging improper activity at the polling places. they say it illegal activity was
conducted, staying open later than they were supposed to. that is puzzling because nevada law requires polling places to stay open for as long as people as long asine -- there are people in line to vote. pros look at the to get an early read? sometimes we will get leaks on exit polls around 4:00. this time there is this new vote caster which slate is doing with vice. what are you looking at? >> it go state-by-state. north carolina, the early vote, donald trump is doing pretty well. it also bodes well for him that the african-american vote is lagging compared to 2008 and 2012. scarlet: the twitter sphere will start to figure it out around 5:00 maybe.
>> there is a state-by-state component and more broadly and nationally, look at the low propensity voters that form president obama's coalition. those are the same voters that hillary clinton is counting on them turning out. if they turn out in big numbers, she will win the election. i want to go back to earlier when you said you may concede tonight. his concession legally required? is not, but historical norm is that it is essential to the peaceful torch passing. scarlet: the historical norm has gone out the window this cycle. >> that is true, and this is not one that i will predict. but donald trump has certainly caps on window open in his recent weeks of campaigning by arguing the system is rigged, that hillary clinton is in cahoots with the government. and we should be clear there is no evidence of anything like
this going on, no mischievous activity. but this is the ecosystems of trump is thriving in now. if he continues to go down this route, we may not see a concession. , shellary clinton wins will be president, whether or not donald trump concedes. matt: you are not planning on going to sleep tonight. >> not at all. matt: a programming note, we have special election coverage with john and mark starting at 5:00 p.m., a two-hour special. sahil will be a part of it. he will beat sticking around for the 7:00 special that we have as well. david gura and megan murphy. i am guessing the entire team will be likely watching the polls. he will my guess is still be here at 7:00 a.m. as well. up, stocksg continued to rise as americans take to the voting booths.
a hottrade has been button topic this campaign season. clinton and trump opposed tpp in its current form, so regardless of the winner of the deal may be in jeopardy. scott lincicome discussed this topic on "what'd you miss?" tpp death areof greatly exaggerated a right now it looks dead in the water. the consensus view is even during the lame-duck session we will not see tpp make it. however, after things die down a bit, it seems quite likely that tpp will rise from the dead under a clinton or even a trump after some tweaks to
the text in order to get either one of them to support it. on the clinton side, my guess is ,t will be far more superficial basically looking for an excuse to say the agreement that she used to support and then opposed and is now good enough for her to support again. side, it may take longer, but at the end of the day, he will want to put his name on it, too. a few years down the road, it may still go through under a president trump. matt: both of them seem pretty anti-trade. all of the candidates that are doing well in america, which strikes me as odd, because we are built on free trade, or super protectionist. some thing that we learn in school was a horrible idea economically. obviously, you agreed because you are coming from the cato institute. refresh our minds as to why. manufacturing jobs since nafta was put in place in 1994. they plummeted and have hardly
come back since the great recession. why is free trade a good thing, what evidence do we have that nafta has helped us out rather than just helping out everyone else who seems to have gotten the better end of the deal? >> you mention manufacturing jobs, which is what everyone looks at. the problem is manufacturing jobs have been declining as a share of the work for since the 1940's. total number since the 1970's. studies also show most of the manufacturing job losses are not due to trade agreements but productivity gains and automation. so when you step back from that and you look at manufacturing output, united states is the number two manufacturer in the world. we produced a record-setting $2.4 trillion in manufacturing output last year. we are just very efficient at it . we don't need a lot of workers to do it anymore. has nafta helped u.s. workers, is tpp going to help us
as well? >> certainly. if you look at the consensus economic review of the nafta, what you find is a consensus view -- the international trade commission dusted a study on this a while ago there there was one the other day by the obama administration that showed we -- small butnt significant gdp gains, employment gains, productivity gains, wage gains. is problem is -- and this why trade is such a political hot button issue. to cost to trade or automation, or any other type of creative disruption, ends up being borne by a very discrete minority of the united states workforce. what that means is you have very concentrated cost, whereas the benefits of trade, be it from lower prices or productivity or anything else, or for more diffuse. situation like
that, it is right for political demagoguery. matt: that was scott lincicome yesterday. scarlet: we will be covering election day market points later joinsh joe weisenthal who us now. when you look at how markets are trading, it would seem like everyone is pricing in a clinton victory. we know that this in -- in this election cycle, anything goes. >> looking at the financial markets right now, there is nothing more to say. we have such a good feel on what assets react to probabilities. we know the king at the peso or equities, safe haven currencies, or the market is assessing right now. i'm a little surprised after yesterday's huge rally, that we're not seeing a little bit --e matt: no pullback. >> surprised at the level of follow-through, but what do i know. made thee have argument that this can be differentiated from brexit because it's not a binary thing,
and we get early results, there is early voting, and we are a lot to talk about it throughout the day. do you think there is still a possibility, have you ever thought about the possibility of a brexit-type surprise? >> anything can happen. i have no reason to think otherwise. most people think clinton will win tonight. i have no special insight, but it's been a pretty wild season. even a lot of the most pessimistic on trump say that he still has a one in six chance. scarlet: our thanks to joe weisenthal. he will be back at 3:30 with "what'd you miss?" this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: we're live from bloomberg world headquarters in next hour.r the here is what we're watching. stocks are rising and treasuries are falling as americans head to the polls to elect the 45th president of united states. will we elect the first female president were will donald trump allowed a surprise victory? we will hear from morgan stanley's chief strategist. trading at the lowest since 2010. the cfo warns there could be more surprises ahead. from the close of trading. julie hyman has the latest. we had followthrough from yesterday's rally but it has faded a bit. julie: pre-much cutting the
advance in half your today as we are getting closer and closer to the polls closing and getting a little more of a real indication as to who has won the presidential election. 2.5% hanging onto gains up . it is the biggest two-day gain for the s&p 500 since june in what has been a time where we have not seen that winning streak. we have seen a slow at -- a flow out of the risk aversion or safety trade that we have watched go up over the prior nine sessions, when we were seen stock averages. things like the yen are down today. we are seeing selling in the treasury markets. selling in gold prices as well. it has been an interesting stocklip-flop of what we had sn during the prior days. the dollar rising and lowers
today, treasury prices are lower as yields go higher and gold futures have been bouncing around quite a bit. we have seen money come out of the vex, hedging activity has gone down, volatility has gone down. you see the vix is now rebounding as stocks are coming off of their highs in the session at a quarter of 1% at the moment. we have watched the call ratio from the vix as well. this is something we mentioned yesterday. we have seen beth that volatility will go down, are increasing here over the bets that it will go higher. --e the event risk volatility will go down. , we're still in earnings season. a positive forecast for booking. cbs down sharply after a negative or disappointing
forecast on a prediction that it will lose prescription business. global losing was less than it was earlier. that coming him out with a negative forecast as well after missing earnings and having issues with depreciation of vehicles. valeant pharmaceuticals down 21.5% after it posted a wider loss than estimated. the company says things could still be bad and there could store.e surprises in matt: it is possible there is another shoe to drop. outside ofing on politics. let's get to the first word news , with mark crumpton in the newsroom. back to that subject. mark: a long and bitter campaign has ended and millions of americans are choosing the president. the lines are long in some places in short and others.
as many as 50 million voters avoided today's crowds theirther by casting ballots early. donald trump voted here in new york city, waving to supporters in the media before enting the polling place. hillary clinton entered in elementary school near her home in new york. she called that a humbling feeling to vote for herself for president. is refusing to issue an order to have ballots in voting machines set aside pending any challenges to the state election results. donald trump's campaign filed a lawsuit in las vegas alleging early voting polls were kept open early. hillary clinton's campaign called it a frivolous lawsuit. julian assange said he was not trying to influence the presidential election when his organization public -- published tax e-mails from hillary clinton's campaign. he suggested wikileaks would publish material on donald trump
if it received appropriate material and judged it newsworthy. he said wikileaks has not received information on trump. his -- stated editorial criteria. some are going from the polls to a cemetery in upstate new york to pay tribute to the women's severed leader, susan dfa. visitors to rochester's cemetery have debit -- decorated the grave with i voted stickers and american flags. the stem and teri its hours to allow for more election day visitors. global news 24 hours a day powered by 20 -- more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. scarlet: thank you. it is election day in america. than a year of campaigning and debating and mudslinging, we should know who the 45th potus would be.
stephen roach for his take on the american future. >> this is the last day we will donald trumpn to as a credible candidate. go on to focus on what it will look like for president clinton, which i think is the most likely outcome. she faces a very challenging economy in a very challenging world. tough issues and china centric a show with china much more muscular on foreign policy. withoutaddresses that ttp, something she believed as secretary of state was the centerpiece of a china containment strategy, will be a big challenge for her. she will try to figure out how to get back into that approach. tom: i'm doing this because of steve, who is great. this is my chart of the year and it is really simple.
this is the four year moving average of real gdp, in the late 1990's, down we go to what we did in 2006. not bad above 3%. we are not getting it done. stephen you predicted this and .ou are very strong down on a 2% run rate gdp, 40% decline on economic growth, in a matter of 20 maybe 15 years. what is the prescription to give us a little more economic growth? region -- reason for the shortfall in gdp, which you are right to point out, is unprecedented weakness and consumer demand. the american consumer growth rate for 80 years has been about 1.5%. that is two points below the precrisis average for the 12 preceding years. we went through a session just like japan did with consumers overly levered on a property
bubble. they are still paying down debt and trying to rebuild saving. given the shortfall of labor income because of stagnant real wages and maybe changing a tiny bit right now, they are not getting back to where they need to be. we have to address the consumer. >> is this the new normal? >> i hate that word, new normal. tom: there goes your consulting gig with tim. >> never had one. challenging headwind. there is so much focus on providing relief for poor, beleaguered, port -- corporate america. the real issue is making american consumers whole again, assisting them with their excess savingnd a total lack of in a dressing and frightening future for many americans and ways. u.s. unemployment
rate. the blue was under democratic president. 1950ought it back to because tom keene likes a little history. i know we need to look at the purchase participation rate. is the u.s. economy all that bad? if you look at a percentage of the poverty rate, it has also gone down. economy as tom pointed out, the growth rate in this recovery has been about half the historic norm. the unemployment rate has come down significantly because the participation rate has basically collapsed. there is a debate as to whether or not this is structural or cyclical or a combination of the two. i think the pieces of the mostmy that tell me the are the profound shortfall of domestic aggregate demand, driven by the american consumer.
>> but this is worldwide, right? let's know. i would not call this a global phenomenon. we need to look at the united states economy. typically, recovery is 4% and this has been 2%. the major reason for the shortfall is the overly leveraged american consumer. president clinton will have to address that quickly if she wants to transform the attitudes of the middle-class tour the next america. tom cole in which state will you look at most closely? >> the usual. florida, michigan, i do not think they will be close. i think we will be able to go to bed early tonight. i think the momentum is not there. the media is trying to make this aok close, but i sense that hot air is out of the trump balloon.
>> will secretary clinton keep janet yellen as the chair of the federal reserve? sure. there is no compelling reason for her to change it at this point. no compelling reason. scarlet: you want to stay tuned to bloomberg because tonight, we have special election coverage at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. a two hour with all due respect. we will follow that up at 7:00 p.m. with more coverage from david gura as well as our bloomberg news washington bureau our entire bloomberg politics team in new york. matt: i will be watching all of that tonight to see who wins. coming up, valeant shares falling for the fifth straight day, cunning its forecast warning there could be more surprises to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: time now for the bloomberg business flash. forapital is on the lookout potential investors for a new fund that could target $5 billion. that is according to people who declined to be identified. on the has been made size of the sector of the target. shares of u.s. packaged food company searching today. largest will be outlawed in unprecedented crackdown against corruption and money laundering, the south it is thetry says first census 1970 of the government has withdrawn money from circulation.
the dominic strauss con saga has taken another turn. than $80,000more back taxes for his role in the hedge fund. once considered one of the most powerful figures in the world of finance. that is your bloomberg business flash update. coming in annual profit forecast after posting a third-quarter loss. shares right out of the gate currently down by better than 22%. what took investors by surprise were comments by new cfo who warned there could be more surprises. we are joined now. to the comment that there might be more surprises, it whatnot -- it was
not as though they said negative surprises that that is how it was interpreted. >> kind of set it in the middle of an earnings call without any other details. company is facing several investigations and shares or falling. they are trying to turn it around. they have got a new ceo in may. this, thest of all of expectation from analysts was that they would cut guidance anyway, to have the new cfo say, we have got surprises anyway, sit tight, that through people off. quote, i'me exact not trying to alarm anyone. matt: revise guidance. i have already slashed our guidance. i'm not trying to, five minutes later,/that again. scarlet: as confidence passes, our confidence will improve. >> so everything is fine so stay tuned.
matt: every thing is not fine but it will not be worse than it is battle ready. he is basically saying they are having problems, marking down their business, and they are having promised -- problems in their other business, dragged down by lower prices. the higher price formula is out the door for them and they cannot do that anymore. >> in the fourth quarter coming up in court for, also some downward. matt: my question is what is going well for valeant to what does bill ackman still see in the company that will work right? -- joe said the retention rate is 94%. matt: so people are not quitting anymore. >> so there is that. they are looking to sell some of their assets. so they are in talks to do that. that moody isut downgrading as well. there are questions of, will
they be able to pay off some of their debt. they said today that they can. also, the sector of legal investigations as well, under scrutiny as well as the former cfo. what is michael's relationship right now? >> he is still a paid consultant. he did not come up today on the call. and analyst asked about that and what joe had said is he has limited involvement and he is not involved in decision-making but initially brought in to help them work for walgreens partnership and give details on that. scarlet: is the walgreens partnership still in place? >> my understanding is yes. out of fairness, i want to mention that carl icahn, bill ackman's archenemy, is also having his issues today. you did not write this story but shares once fell at 52%.
these big billionaire investors are not doing well. what does it look like to you as far as the future of their holdings? is bill ackman going to stick with the debt through the tough quarters? any choice? >> there has not been an indication that there will be a shift in that. it seems like things are still going. scarlet: what was his latest miss on valeant? >> my understanding is that everything has been supported going forward. matt: it is really a fascinating story. thank you for joining us, jerod there with bloomberg news. scarlet: still ahead, trade focusing on tech. a closer look at the nasdaq 100. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: it is time now for options insight with julie hyman. julie: thank you. joining us today is kevin kelly, cio of capital partners. an american flag on this election day. we are not seeing that much market activity. we see swings between gains and losses but it feels as though people are waiting to put money down for tomorrow for some kind of outcome for the election. >> a big day of consumer needs coming out with earnings. that is where a lot of people placed their bets in the past few years. it is telling. we started to see sectors breakdown in correlation. there is about a 66% correlation in the sectors, which is really low relative. are trying -- starting to make a bet postelection. thing is the profit
repatriation issue. there are so many issues to choose from but this is one that is pertinent to a lot of u.s. multinational companies. is there a way to play that given the possible election out him? >> there is a great way to play that. if you look at the largest companies on the exchanges right now, it is about $2.7 trillion overseas and it is a bipartisan effort to bring back that capital. budget,a administration 17% are hillary wants it at 15 and donald trump wanted a 10%. that is a good thing for the companies because they can deploy raising their dividend and buying back stock as well as acquiring other companies. ge is one of those. over 51 dear -- deals come over $1 billion since 2008. julie: your tray today, we will volatility, but
we're looking at tech companies. apple is the standardbearer or example people bring up of having a lot of cash overseas. nasdaq 100 my capture something. >> yes. the nasdaq 100 is a great way to play. i think investors should do a the nasdaq 100. the 5000 has a three to one payoff ratio. through the holiday season, you are seeing people buy more apple iphone 7's, especially in light of the samsung issues, because google has done very well when it comes to mobile advertising and facebook. it is a great way to level up your market exposure for payoff. you only risk with hundred dollars. you do not this a lot but you lot, especially repeat jay shi. with market does go up in the next few months, it is a great way to lever that. julie: so the next president would not be in place quickly
enough to get something done in terms of change by the january trade. >> know, but if hillary does get market, he will see the move up initially in the trade will play off of that. .t is a great way to do it if donald trump gets elected, you are not risking a lot. because it is a forward-looking mechanism, the companies will participate. julie: there is 1.i want to mention on volatility. a chart looks at the vix volatility and reverses the five-year average. volatility has to come -- has come down as clinton's's chances in the polls but still above the five-day average. will it come back down once the elections is done? >> your seamen diversions
technology. if you look at the chart will more time, volatility is below its historical more. being relatively elevated, about 85 and still high. that tells you we will see volatility pick up into the markets. julie: great to talk to you bear -- talk to you. back to you. matt: what did you miss is next. look talk about the election and the economy. it definitely something on a day like election tuesday in the united states of america. you do not want to miss this. this is bloomberg. ♪
how much you qualify for, the ways to receive your money... and more. plus, when you call now, you'll get this magnifier with led light absolutely free! when you call the experts at one reverse mortgage today, you'll learn the benefits of a government-insured reverse mortgage. it will eliminate your monthly mortgage payments and give you tax-free cash from the equity in your home and here's the best part... you still own your home. take control of your retirement today! mark: clinton and her allies
raised more than one in dollars for october 19, the last day or which conferences the years are available. trump and supporters raised about half of that here at super pac's can accept donations of unlimited size, particularly lopsided. german chancellor angela merkel said it would be a step toward gender balance among world leaders. awaiting the u.s. election results with suspense. declining to comment directly on clinton or trump. the first female chancellor. she will work to strengthen you k's relationship with the united states the matter who wins the election. she will call the president-elect as soon as possible. sunday, she said she was the presidential race have been more calm and measured. president obama continued his election day tradition of plg