tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg November 8, 2016 3:30pm-5:01pm EST
which conferences the years are available. trump and supporters raised about half of that here at super pac's can accept donations of unlimited size, particularly lopsided. german chancellor angela merkel said it would be a step toward gender balance among world leaders. awaiting the u.s. election results with suspense. declining to comment directly on clinton or trump. the first female chancellor. she will work to strengthen you k's relationship with the united states the matter who wins the election. she will call the president-elect as soon as possible. sunday, she said she was the presidential race have been more calm and measured. president obama continued his election day tradition of playing basketball with friends. the pickup game was held at the gym at the army's fort mcnair in
washington. the former chicago bulls player scottie pippen. mr. obama's's election day game was in 2008. toy four hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. his bloomberg. -- this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: we are 30 minutes from the close of trading here in the u.s. live, i am scarlet fu. joe: i am joe weisenthal. climbing. earlier losses as holes open with the u.s. presidential race. joe: the question is what did you miss?
matt: heading to the polls in one of the most volatile campaigns in u.s. history, will the u.s. elect hillary clinton, the nation's first female commander in chief, or will it choose a billionaire businessman, donald trump, for the 45th resident? , hillary clinton led donald trump in a dramatic and often vicious campaign. florida among the first to close. alaska is the last day at 1:00 a.m. we will show you what to look for and when. there is more to the election than meets the eye. the senate is up for grabs after the republicans took control for the first time in 2007. we will look at the key races to watch. scarlet: as we head toward the close and election night, let's look at where markets stand with less than 30 minutes to go. julie hyman is standing by.
>> we see the rally led by technology, we see it in the upper corner, the nasdaq is the best performing of the nasdaq right now. of 1%. than half what is interesting is in the getting thectual poll numbers, getting the election results, a lot of tension -- attention is paid to a new monitor developed that looks at some of the early turnout results in the getting s states. traders have been pouring over those numbers and reacting to them as the day goes on. we have got the end and swiss franc falling against the u.s. dollar and the new zealand dollar and canadian dollar rising against it. a mixed picture there, crude is back lower bound and around quite a bit today. rates are broadly higher as the selling in the treasury market.
another thing i have been , a broad basket bank of market merrill lynch index, treasury volatility, all of this came down after spiking in recent weeks. we still have individual company news to talk about as well. priceline is at a record after that beat estimates. earnings losers whose losses earlier were about double what they are now. the company came out with valeant pharmaceuticals after its earnings and forecast. that company earnings missed estimates. on the flipside, we have got gains today in consumer staples. food stocks specifically after boomer news learned that 3-d -- 3g capital is one of the
investors in that looking to $5 billion in a new fund to this is reported by the brazil journal and all of the company that have potential targets rising today'session. scarlet: thank you so much. joe: the u.s. election is serving as a litmus test for discussions about whether global civilization is reversed. what if it is not about a retreat at all? eraaps we're entering a new of recalibration purity, set the university of california burke, nowas also -- he joins us from california. i really appreciate you joining us. talking about trade, so much talk about globalization. we are already seeing a world trade slowdown, even before any sort of new policy is in effect.
what do you attribute that to and what dcs the future trajectory of trading in the nations? creating an international -- it grew much more quickly. it was driven by the chinese growth and development of mobile and all that you the process is over and similarly, we have an exclusive growth of public order capital flows because of financial regulation. financial crisis, deregulation especially as it affects banking. i think the age of hyper globalization.
i do not think -- if you look carefully at the history, you think about the fact that there are a lot of companies invested in global supply chains, a lot of companies invested in export, i think the status quo can persist for a long time were trade and global output rise in will no longer be the case that trade will grow quickly but it can rise together. that is how it looks from an economic point of view. politically, it may be problematic. i think a threat to the globalization is on the political side and not the economic side strictly speaking. mark: manufactured -- matt: manufacturing jobs have been decimated but that is because of technology and growth around the world outside of the u.s.
what has been the impact of nafta? been on balance a negative for the u.s. economy? >> not for the u.s. economy but for manufacturing employment. employment has shifted in services. it has shifted into high tech. it has shifted -- nafta has made a difference for that dynamic. china in my view has made a bigger difference. mexico, china population wise and export wise, is the largest economy in the world. i think trade has mattered for the relative decline of manufacturing in the united states. technology has probably made more of a difference and that fact points us to what will have next. people talk about rolling back
nafta and no one talks about abolishing technological progress -- robots. technological progress is here to stay. joe: the. the time of globalization has seen a big explosion in the finance industry. there are obvious links, our trade finance is important to banks, derivatives hedging business whenant companies are engaging in trade across borders. if we start to deep -- d globalize, what is the prospect for the world bank's as the becomes less activity? if we continue to clamp down on capital flows, that could have a negative impact on trade. it in an unwise fashion. the smartest thing to do would money flows have not
connected with trade. throughrs claim down that arebank market mainly what commentators refer to as hot money flows while trying to protect, maintain at the same time. that would be a happy outcome if we could achieve it. -- scarlet, i wanted to ask about whether the democratic side or the republican side, lied to the estimate of the appeal of globalization and underestimated deal of nationalism? >> i think what the elites have failed to communicate is that openness and free trade do not all votes.ly erase there are winners and losers. the winners are left behind affair not helped or compensated with the training
they need to compete in a globalized economy. they will understandably grow resent old. many policymakers, starting with proponents in europe, the transpacific partnership, have acknowledged not there are losers as well as need to do some before the losers. matt: are you optimistic the message has come across and for the outcome of the election tonight? >> the politically correct answer is i'm hopeful. ways: justwo forward. one is protectionism. building a wall and clamping down on trade. -- is providing trading training so they can compete for the global economy. thatay i framed it is
decimated preclear. joe: we want you to stay with us and get your thoughts on brexit and some analogies that may or may not be relevant here. joe:matt: i want to look at americans casting their ballots as americans vote for a 45th president. will it be hillary clinton or donald trump and more portly, what will the winner do with the victory? this is bloomberg. ♪
-- you say a brexit vote will prove disastrous for the u.k. but small potatoes for the eu are you not worried about contagion as we see white -- right-wing populism sprouting up orcountries like germany countries like italy where it has also been problematic? >> i think we should worry about right-wing populist parties across europe but i do not think they are being encouraged by brexit. we are about to see -- about to see a major recession in the u.k. which will illustrate the cost of exiting for the european union. there is plenty to worry about but i do not think it will take the same form. matt: everyone tried austerity and that was dreadful. we have not had anyone promise real old stimulus. even hillary clinton economic plan does not look like a
million dollars for infrastructure they desperately need. what's to say they will go the other way? >> i do not think they will go the other way. a lot of talk about stimulus. there will be a little action in various companies. circumstances, to shift away from monetary stimulus, and do a couple of 100 middle side stimulus would be a appropriate for circumstances. scarlet: i know you came back from a brexit conference and that has not resulted in the horrible economic data that people have feared would occur. expectedetter than read on the economy removes some of the urgencies linked to fiscal spending that people seem to be on course for providing? >> i didn't think so. i think the house of commons in the bank of england all appreciate a major recession.
what has held the economy up is inflation on the horizon because the pound has collapsed. that has made for a relatively strong economy and a weaker economy going forward. joe: there are a lot of issues beyond just the economy and trade and stuff like that. hisrump were to win and agenda were to be enacted, and that would presumably mean tax spending,astructure repatriation of foreign cash, obviously, the antagonism for current trade outlook, what with that due to the current economy? would significantly heightened uncertainty, that is the obvious effect. do not likestors uncertainty.
i think the negative effects of uncertainty on the market with an -- would dominate any positive effect of stimulus. i would say the same thing about the dollar. stimulus withcal the. positive. i think the main effect would be heightened uncertainty, which would be dollar negative. matt: joe would let -- was lucky to have lunch today. he was probably talking about how we need to see real inflation here before we raise interest rates next year. do you think we will see a path to normalization or will the doves when out on this one? >> i think there are sound economic arguments of the sort for waiting and seeing plus 2% inflation. there is intense political pressure to do you now. it is a tug-of-war between economics and politics. we have seen it before. you can guess which wins in the end. that: thank you for joining us.
scarlet: let's look at the most important states and when we might see the election called. .ike mckee joins us now the polls are open until 9:00 p.m.. cares about new york because we already awarded those electoral votes to hillary clinton. the real question is can she rack up enough victories early in the night in the east coast to make it possible in -- four
donald trump to win. it may not be when we call the race but everyone will know it is over. you can pretty much bet it is over issuance florida and unless trump pulls some kind of upset in the midwest. there does not seem to be a reason for the polls to go his way. at that point, the map breaks down. if it turns blue, to hillary clinton easy when. the last president to be elected basically by the east coast was bill clinton in 1992 and they were able to call that early. fun, a lot of people were tweeting out some kind of internet tool. joe had some -- a slightly different take on it. he had ohio for clinton but north carolina for trump.
what does ohio look like great now? >> all of the states are so close within the margin of error. you know, if you gave it to nate silver at five: -- 538, he would say it is still possible. he went from ohio to blue and yesterday, he had it read. i think that is right, he takes that into account. i noticed you had nevada blue. if he gets nevada, he does not need new hampshire. >> i was thinking back to 2000 and we all remember florida. all the other states, you remember bush got 271. new hampshire, iowa, nevada, iowa. had any of those been for gore, then bush would not have one. it really speaks to, you think
that's to that time, how little it takes. >> a lot of people hate the electoral college. only the popular vote, then you have the candidate go from new york to california and you will not see them go anywhere else. siteet: what is the swing -- swing state you're looking at it used to be ohio? >> it is not the bellwether state. consecutiveright 14 times but other states have tied the record. missouri was right 13 consecutive times in a row as well. then there are like five states that have been right 14 times in states, nevada and new hampshire, who have been right 16 times in a row. those of us from ohio call it the bellwether state. >> you look at nevada, 16 times in a row, they were wrong when noty carter lost, they did
vote in 1976, it was .2 percentage points. nine races since then, they have been right. 25 of the last 26, nevada. unfortunately, we'll have to stay up later until they close for a decision. 70% of the state's registered population has already voted. the real question is could donald trump get a big enough turnout from the republicans, a leave from hillary clinton, we assume she has from democrats have already voted. matt: he tweeted what was even cooler. 18 in florida has 29 and maybe that is reversed. even if those go read and not blue, it is still not enough. it will be difficult for chump to pull it off. >> yes. if he does not win at least one
of these east coast battleground states early, it will be very hard for him to do anything. that is why he spent a lot of time in north carolina and florida and even try for pennsylvania though it does not seem out of reach. i noticed on joe's map, you went already in nebraska. that is the one where i gave one electoral vote for hillary clinton in the second congressional district there. a strong democrat with a get out the vote operation. there you go. >> all right. michael mckee, thank you for the breakdown. we are looking at back-to-back games for the s&p 500 after nine straight losses. the s&p up by one third 1%. dow industrials adding 68 points at the moment. are looking ahead to election coverage can 5:00 p.m., a two-hour special and after that, 7:00 p.m., david and megan will
closing bell. election day is upon us. the second-highest in a broad rally. they prepared some of their gains. i am scarlet fu. matt: we want to welcome our viewers. you can watch closing bell coverage every weekday from 4:00 to 5:00 p.m. eastern. scarlet: we begin with our market mednet -- market minute. overall you're looking at equities with all s&p 500 groups gaining. >> energy looks red right now. the others are gaining. what's interesting is we have such a positive day for the
groups. almost all of the earnings news is disastrous. it is not the earnings today. >> i guess not. at one point. 50% you had valiant getting crushed. 12 or 16%. cbs is down. these companies/their forecasts. raised itsonly that forecast, only a mild gain. carnage in the markets as far as individual names but the groups are moving up. let's start with a look at 10 year yields in the u.s., rising today.
people go into equities and selloff their treasuries. , let's the 10 year yield below that chart out a little longer. the highest level in a month. it has been bouncing a lot. we have a pretty clear idea. i think the outlook for treasuries is less ambiguous. scarlet: there are some structural issues going forward no matter who is elected. let's look at currencies. it has weakened against its peers. gap higher.dollar yen.demand for the
and other trade we looked at is the mexican peso. it is that a two-month high. the wild ride is not over. a trump victory could push the pain so to weaken from its 18.43. going torump wins it's be the wildest moves with ever seen. scarlet: we can make that statement. commodities.ok at some big rallies in the industrial metals. copper up, they have been surging lately. up nearly 4.5%. gold selling off. gold, which had been tracking the election pretty closely.
scarlet: absolutely. let's take a deep dive down into the bloomberg. matt: i have one from dave wilson. see dave wilson's charts i look at all the time. he has one from him km that shows the fed has taken more money or reduce the monetary base held at the fed by the most sense the 1920's. we have the massive spike up during the financial crisis when the fed boosted its balance trillion.lmost $5 now it is going the other direction. base reduce the monetary by this much this quickly is going to make it hard for us to get to that inflation target
they want to heads. they are at 1.7%. difficultoing to be when they are reducing the monetary base. scarlet: i'm taking a look at a one-stop shop for all things linked to the election. you have headlines, you have maps. you have charts on how donald trump is polling versus hillary clinton. i would go here to the map. in terms of the electoral map that clinton would need to win, bloomberg is predicting she has 203. there are plenty of tossup states. you can go back and look at the results which will show you much of anything but will give you an indication of when the polls close. the first post to close before 8:00, you have a lot of them. this is a great interactive
chart for you to look at. matt: all right. speaking of the elections, americans heading to the polls, hillary clinton or donald trump, results will come in for another two hours. until we can preview what to expect i want to bring in john mccormick. i feel like all of the questions have been asked. what states are you watching, what caroline and florida. so tell us something we don't know? >> we are going to learn some new stuff at 5:00. exit polls. it will start telling us some of the demographic things we seeing today. sort of the mood of the nation. the associated press does this exit poll in the interview people. they talk to people who have early voted. they put this together and give us a composite of what the
electorate looks like today. we are going to see that at the top of the hour. the electorate is angry about such and such. it is going to be vague stuff. joe: people are they going to irresponsibly with the most vague headlines. scarlet: kind of tradition at this point. there are a lot of sources for polling. is one national exit poll? >> it is one national exit poll. i think it is 22 or 32. they are in the states that matter the most tonight. matt: what does the turnout look like? i've heard long lines, people around the block. i don't know how to compare that. it is not super scientific. we have correspondents. it has been a busy election day. people are interested and voting. that is higher turnout, probably
in certain states to benefit hillary clinton and donald trump. we don't know much about turnout. >> there was an incident in nevada with the trump campaign, early voting polling hours. what happened? >> early voting state open late which is allowed. if people are in line with our allowed to finish voting. trump is climbing this location was illegally kept open late. i doubt much will come from that. scarlet: is it fair to say democrats position is let as many people though as possible when republicans is we want to limit voting when possible? >> i doubt the republicans would agree with that but democrats always say yes, we want voting to be as easy as possible. republicans will say we wanted easy but also people are who they say they are. matt: as it is now you don't
have to even show an id and a lot of states. what about this agreement? this gentleman's agreement that when the networks and the ap they are not going to release exit polls until 7:00? >> there will be waves. this first waves at 5:00 will be this characterization. they will never give the horse race number until the polls and that states have close. matt: are some going to start breaking that? , youday's internet world have to see that happen? , theat i have noticed smart anchors who share this material, you can pick up some body language on the part of on-air folks. if you listen between the lines and you have heard the exit poll numbers you can see them lean into certain storylines more.
scarlet: based on their line of questioning. >> this is a huge deal. it matters with either one of the winners getting the confirmations, or any legislation at all, where do you experts stand on the senate? >> charlie cook is viewed as one of the top senate prognosticators. he says the democrats are going to win control of the senate. that is possible we don't know the result of that until even later in the evening. nevada is one of the key states out west. it is probably leaning democratic with a heavy hispanic vote out there but the senate race control may be something we have to learn later. scarlet: what about the house? will paul ryan stay as speaker? it looks pretty certain.
get off a lot of ground but he will face a small challenge by had to guess. mccormick. appreciate you coming on and filling us in. tune in for election coverage in an hour. heilemannrin and john anchoring that. then we have another election megan murphy. our coverage is special even starting before that. starting now until 1:00 in the morning. special election coverage. don't change the channel. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: the u.s. stock market remarkable track record. we want to watch the s&p 500 prior to election day. the opposing party candidate tends to win the presidency. this has held true since 1984. what we see this cycle, the s&p 500 has held onto a negative return of just under 2%. signal ors is a false donald trump has a better chance than people are giving credit for. we want to look at the jobs data. rateis the unemployment that does not include discouraged workers or part-time workers. .t is at 4.9% the blue shading reflects democrat residents. going back to the late 1940's
ronald reagan was the only republican to lead leave with lower unemployment and when he took the oath. democrats have seen a drop in their turn. here, gdp under different administrations. the yellow line marks the average since 1978. 2.7%. stephen roach says economic growth during the latest recovery, the obama years has been half of historical norm up to that point. we have struggled to get to that 2.7% average. we started with stocks. we will end with stocks. the s&p starts to rally after a u.s. presidential election. the index rose the most during bill clinton terms and opposite. werearack obama the gains
large as well but less so. early 2009. as for republicans, during ronald reagan's eight years in 118%. the s&p 500 rose it seems to be being bullish equities pay off. parody only has two of the past 13 presidents with stocks lower than where they started. matt: thank you. what did you miss? the mexican peso surge. u.s. stocks advance. these are signs of increased confidence in the market hillary clinton will win the presidential race. one big sign traders are nervous , 1.72, theoday highest level since the brexit vote in mid-june. our next guest things that
volatility could collapse regardless of who wins. , the head of risk strategy, thank you for joining us. why is it signaling that? >> we have seen a big uptick in hedging activity with our clients and flows in the street. that has contributed to the increase in volatility you have seen. ratios, youat call are actually saying that spike as well. a lot of traders have gone on and put options just playing for a big collapse. matt: everybody would like to hold on to their longs to measure the know have any downside, to get over these moments like elections or debt ceiling votes without any big
losses. do people systematically overpay for protection in times like this? and of chewing into performance? >> it is difficult to say necessarily if you are overpaying. given the market rally, you could see a drop in equities if he pulls out a win. matt: there are all of these things. brexit. they erase pretty quickly. we have several debt ceiling events. people got nervous. anyone could theoretically go very bad. does the inclination to hedge in front of everyone of these end up being costly? >> it certainly is costly. we can agree on that. it is something people have to do. if you have to explain to your
boss why you were not hedge, you're going to be any bad spot. we have clients who are schismatic sellers reporting from doing so this month because they don't want to be cut short. matt: this is another reason blackrock estimates there $50 trillion in cash. what volatility measures can equity investors use to protect downside? are there any? >> that is a good question. it's a specific measure. it's a very specific measure of equity,rm protection on on the s&p 500. definitely look at other things. markets,dm, imaging but that currency volatility. currency volatility is a bit
lower than the days before brexit. >> other measures of volatility. are there other indices out there where you can get more value hedging against downsizing? that tend to correlate where there aren't as much protection? do clients try to find alternative cheap hedges? >> yes. people are always looking for cheap hedges. the only thing is don't get too cute. i would rather pay a little bit for protection on something that correlates to my book than try to find some esoteric hedge. twc do look a little bit cheap. scarlet: you surveyed the landscape. to what extent did the bombshell from the fbi fuel demand for
protection? do you see that dissipate on monday? when the fbi gave her the all clear? >> we definitely sell that dissipate. you can see that looking at stocks. stuff day contribute to it but we saw people doing last-minute protections. i don't think that is because people waited to the last minute. you can't buy it too far in advance. you have to know where the market is. you don't want to be paying for insurance if you don't need it. scarlet: what is the optimal amount of time? >> a couple of days before. thing, the market reaction given that the election hasn't happened yet, the market will try to encourage as many people as possible.
he never does what you wanted to do when you wanted to do it. given the money that hasn't been allocated into stocks, this is taking a lot of people off guard. nothing ever works out on perfect timing. this election, it has been a low volatility environment. we have some surges like post-brexit. they quickly goes back to being very low. is there anything that could change the overall volatility? say in the absence of a trump victory? >> we are heading into the holiday season. you have thanksgiving coming up and christmas. the italian referendum coming up in the first week of december is one event investors may be overlooking. lookis one thing we try to for.
things that the market may be under pricing. matt: thank you for your time. the head of risk strategy. scarlet: as we look ahead at the exit polls americans are casting their vote in this historic election. you can see live shots of voters . this was from earlier today. you don't see the long lines across many states. >> you happen to be on a long line. i saw a short line. this looks like almost no one is there. we can't take too much from our anecdotal information. we have to wait until the fat lady sings. scarlet: the temptation is there. we will have your hour-by-hour guide coming up. ♪
scarlet: democrats appeared to be feeling more comfortable than republicans right now. using thend the chart function at the bottom of the screen. it is a weekly national survey. the top see here is panel, the blue line are the democrats. the bottom panel shows the thread between the two. you have a positive value. democrats are feeling more positive than republicans. 2012 intoking hold in president obama's second term. a little blip here in the mid-90's. matt: i love that chart.
it is a striking gap. >> it is cool data. scarlet: i didn't realize it would come down to that level. looking at mexican etf. you have seen a million versions of the trade. here is something interesting. short interest, the mexico etf is surging lately. that could bes used for multiple purposes. maybe that is people hedging. you can hedge it to protect your risk and probably get crushed if trump wins. you can never look at just one data point. matt: they will be covering those if trump doesn't win. next we will talk about that anger driven politics.
mark: following one of the most bitter and divisive presidential campaigns, americans are headed to the polls. many avoided today's lines with as many as 50 million people casting early ballots. hillary clinton with a narrow lead. she and bill clinton voted in new york. donald trump voted in manhattan. he told foxnews he doesn't trust many opinion polls which he says are deliberately inaccurate. a judge will not issue an order to have ballots in voting machines set aside pending challenges to the election results.
the donald trump campaign filed a lawsuit in las vegas alleging the early voting polls were cap 's closing. the clinton campaign called the lawsuit frivolous. volunteers collected ballots from drivers and bicyclists at a drive-through polling station. 2 million people voted as of monday. the united nations human rights office says 300 people have been abducted by the islamic state near mozilla -- mosul. they were former members of iraq's security forces. sheiks have been killed. global news powered by more than 2600 analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. scarlet: thank you.
let's get a recap. s&p 500 posting back-to-back gains. investors are awaiting election results. you are looking at s&p up by 4/10 of 1%. earliert -- it did gain but paired that in the close. crash,esterday's big up a surgeon optimism clinton is going to win the final two days of the election. if you thought this election has been a roller coaster get ready for the whiplash to follow. could it give rise to larger populist movements? , thank you for joining us. i talked to you in greece when they went through major elections. you go all over the world. there is a widespread belief
that is rising populism. of the other hand you see president obama's approval levels going out higher than ronald reagan. how angry are americans really? >> i don't think it is overstated. we have a divided society. the next president is going to have a lot of work to do to prepare that but as you mentioned, it is a western world phenomenon. it is underpinned by economics. populist do well when the economy is in the doldrums. we haven't had much wage gains. we haven't had the money going to people's pockets. matt: if you look at the broader numbers, across the country we have 2.5% wage growth. we had a 2.9% gdp print. 2%, whichis under
would be good from the terms of the people. this economy is not and the doldrums, is it? >> i would argue it is. it is not a disaster. we have the strongest recovery in the western world. but the gdp was goosed by exports and inventories. i wouldn't say that this is a new trend in growth for the u.s.. in wage growth that is nothing to write home about. but it isa disaster not what people are accustomed to. people are not getting the boost in their own incomes. scarlet: they are not seeing any of that wage increase. fiscal stimulus, and the spending has being touted as one possible prescription. had you craft a package that caters and addresses issues for class of people who haven't benefited at all?
>> both candidates have hit on something. it can boost all parts of the social stratosphere. unfortunately neither candidate has a possible way to pay for it. clinton is hoping to pay for this with tax reform. her tax reform won't make it through the house. there will be a lot of concessions to be made. trump is hoping to pay for it with growth. 1.5 to 25%rowth is growth. it's not going to happen. >> we like the economic recovery to have been stronger everywhere but there is clearly something else going on. populism movements in germany, ,hat is an explicit movement anti-islamic immigration populist movement putting pressure on angela merkel. the alternative for deutschland
-- motivated by economics. it seems to be more about immigration. there is a big element of ,enophobia, cultural anxiety inclination to cultural change that has to be driving this. >> that is not divorced from economics. people are concerned about foreigners coming in and taking their jobs because of the economy. if they were doing well, they wouldn't be so fearful of that. >> or care at all. >> the one thing that does unite populists is they set up this us versus them mentality. that really unites them all. we are seeing that across europe. matt: where is the most successful in europe? i don't think of the uk as your
and neither do they. where are the right-wing parties hitting the most bang for their buck? >> they are not all right-wing. they are french either way. maybe in greece, they are in government. they are pretty successful. joe: it seems like they have become a centerleft party in europe. is that right? is that a fair characterization? does this show what happens to all populists? demands, they just have the latitude they will think they have. >> they have to cater to creditors. they have caved time and time again.
they are not really in control of things. they do poorlys, in government traditionally. we need to worry about them when they are ranting on the sidelines which is what we have across europe. up emotions.ping >> that is right. they are shifting the centrist parties. scarlet: it is less that they will make it to government but that they will influence what the existing government is doing and how they will bring prescriptions and policy. joe: which is why they help the brexit though. partyull the conservative and force them to do it. >> and the conservative party was trying to save itself. parties can promise whatever they want and never have to make good on it. matt: you are looking at anger politics. if hillary clinton wins, how does that turn out for america?
>> it's not over if hillary clinton wins. as much as we would like to not have to deal with the populist wave, -- matt: she won't give a victory speech saying i am sorry all of you white males have been then getting raises and keeping your jobs. >> i'm not sure anybody is going to buy it. she might. this next president has a huge task. >> is the republican anger at her that they will get in the way for trying to come up with a solution? >> i don't think they will -- they will be blocking the way. they will benefit from it as well. green, awesome to get your global perspective on what is going on here. thank you. matt: let's bring it back to the u.s..
a few hours with him the first vote counts. out, sitting in my truck. clinton.hio going for florida for clinton as well which i guess makes sense. it seems like it is a trump state. joe: you have to put a twist on your map to stand out. >> even if trump did win ohio and florida he would not have electoral votes to win. >> he has to pick off nevada and south carolina. matt: there is a hash tag. really interesting stuff. stay with us here. we will continue to slice and dice it. we have an election special at 5:00. election all night. watch us at your cocktail
joe: the $3.8 trillion market may be coming more desirable if hillary clinton wins and is able to follow on plans to raise taxes on everyone making more than $250,000 a year. take a look at this chart. it measures the yield against the returns of benchmark treasury bonds. it falls when i first term democrat is elected. it rises when it first time republican takes the white house. isning us now, this attractive why? the tax-free aspect?
>> that is right. your tax rate is higher you are protected from more taxable income. and in a clinton win scenario you are less likely to have tax reform legislation that will go through to attack tax preference items. there has been talk on both sides of actually limiting or taking away tax exemption entirely. hillary clinton winning is not only important from higher tax rates but makes it less likely you would have a makeup of congress that will allow a major tax reform package that would rip away the exemptions. matt: that is the theme. investors like the status quo. has been great the last several years.
>> i think that is exactly right. risks, taxes going away. interest rates going higher. keeps thewin scenario status quo, relatively low inflation and growth. ceilingly yell -- low to go from here. that is the sweet spot where as a trump victory opens the door to a stimulus. both of those things apply to inflation higher. the on tops, that would be opposite scenario. exempt: you have the tax curve, and in blue the u.s. treasury curve which i can manipulate it little bit -- this
is the difference between the two. what extent have they factored in that? >> i think it is fair to say we are positioned for a clinton victory. for exactly the reasons you pointed out. the yield curve is not terribly steep. the last 18 months, they have been rowling based on the idea you have a low inflation, low growth, flatter yield curve. this is not a new risk. this has been going back to 2011 and debt ceiling prices. ,s long as there is gridlock you take that off the table. perform in a to dependable way. >> what is the ramification of donald trump wins?
school ande and grain elevator project in the country gets the green light? >> i would love to see some grain elevator bonds. something new. railroad bonds, it's all interesting. there's a need for infrastructure spending. have seen aed you deficit in new money bond exemptions. should be investing $50 billion year. if the government gets more heavily involved and start spending more money, you could see supply hedge quite a bit higher and alleviate capital pressures. scarlet, federal issuance is different and at a different
state and county. i wonder how the fiscal house looks. saying 100.tney was we were going to go bankrupt. she had good reason for saying it. >> timing is important. challenge is to stay and local credit. the big risk is to major liabilities. unfunded pension liabilities. that problem is big but the depletion rates, the day that which those funds lose money and taxpayer has to completely fund the pensioner, even in the most dire situations you have i years
go. do you expect to hear a concession speech tonight? >> it depends on how the different states right. more important they we are going to see a concession speech from the other leaders. that is something i am counting on, that we hear from mitch mcconnell and speaker ryan, and possibly even mike pence. scarlet: they would give concession speeches but not donald trump? >> this is something we have been hearing more about. if donald trump is going to challenge this election, will the establishment step up and take -- and say the country needs to move forward? to begin governing again after 18 months? it all depends on what happens tonight.
my map has florida going for clinton, clinton with a resounding victory in the electoral college. victory mr.pe of trump would concede. even if he doesn't most are looking to the remainder of the republican establishment. matt: the consensus is clinton wins and we have divided congress. seehe event we continue to gridlock in d.c., are there any areas at all to be optimistic about? >> it is incredible after 18 spent, and6 billion we're going to wake up tomorrow and the fundamentals of governing aren't going to be changed dramatically. i think we will have a clinton white house.
the democrats are going to have a razor thin majority in the senate. and speaker ryan is going have trouble controlling a slimmer majority. i really don't think there is much room for legislating next year. is aroundrea infrastructure spending which you mentioned. forlieve there is a window a deal on infrastructure spending that is paid for by repatriating offshore earnings. >> you expect hillary clinton to give donald trump a drubbing. not just a small loser, but a big loser out of this. scarlet: bigley. matt: would that make republicans rethink what they are doing? that is a fair framework to operate under. if you go back to 2012 and the gop did a postmortem on that
election. there were a couple of takeaways, a need to expand outreach to latinos and women. i don't think either one of those takeaways were taken to heart by the gop establishment. it is difficult to project but there is going to be a battle for the republican soul that is ongoing for the next few cycles. scarlet: what has been most underestimated? speaking, this problem between the promises made on the campaign trail and how they can be translated into policy. my favorite quote was from governor elmo. you campaign and poetry and you govern in prose. we have seen that in the
anchor: this is it. no hype required. the outcomes of countless races across the united states will be determined in a few hours. the international attention paid to the key race, hillary versus donald trump in the biggest job on planet earth. that will be our focus primarily for the next two hours. millions of voters have cast ballots. in just a few hours, either hillary clinton or donald trump will claim the